 The life of the land is in its real estate. And today I am lucky enough to have Colette King back with us to do a year in wrap up. Colette is the owner of Keller Williams, oh, Honolulu, Maui and the Big Island division and also the regional director with Keller Williams for 20 offices on the mainland. So Colette, tell us a little bit about yourself. Oh, well, gee, I am born and raised in Hawaii. So I'm actually from Hawaii. So just so people know that I went to Sacred Hearts Academy. So I'm from Hawaii. I'm a local girl. I've been in real estate for over 30 years. And I love the business. It's an amazing business and industry. And really, one of the things we're realizing now more than ever right in this uncertain times, unprecedented times, we're hearing that a lot in COVID, is that housing is an essential part of our lives. And so I'm privileged, honored, and blessed to be in an industry where we can take care of our people, our people have a roof over their heads. And it's been really great to me, this industry. So I'd love to give back. And I'm excited to share with you what's been happening in the real estate industry. Yes. So I know it's been totally unexpected from what we thought back in March. Because I know I didn't expect the market to do what it has done. But you're going to kind of give us a national overview, just because you are on the name tag. So what are we seeing nationally? OK, so if you understand what's happening nationally, there are three areas in the economy we need to look at. GDP, gross domestic products, we need to look at the unemployment, which is huge. And there are certain numbers that we want to be under. And then we also look at inflation. And like six months ago, we were all expecting, oh, nothing's going to happen, no business is going to happen. And yet this is like the fourth shift I've been in real estate. I'm not surprised this has happened because the government has done as good of a job as it can in helping us stimulate the economy to a point where if you've been sitting in your home for the last eight months, and you're not working, but you're receiving stimulus money, what do you think's going on in your head, Kena? I've been in my house for eight months. Either I'm renting or I own, and I have money and I'm paying off my debt because I'm not really working and I'm not spending. What do you think's happening in the consumer's head right now? Yeah, they're all looking to move, to buy up. And I think we have a large amount of condos here on Island and very few single-family homes on the market. And we're seeing people wanting to sell their condos and buy a single-family home because they want more space. They want to get on. So that's what's happening nationally. We have seen historically this is the best housing market we've ever been in since 2006. And I was in the market in 2006 before that, and that was a hot, hot market here in California. Everything was in multiple offers. There was very low inventory. However, there was one thing missing that we didn't have that this economy has created, a demand for real estate. And that is lowest interest rates you'll ever see. So we're looking at 3.5, right? And if you've done a re-fi lately, you're looking at a 2.6. So again, what's affecting the housing market is the GDP, inflation, and unemployment. And one of the biggest hit in Hawaii, as we all know, is the hospitality industry and the service industry. And yet what we're finding is because of that, those people may then go into the real estate business because we're in the service industry, right? And they may downsize to make sure that they have money for the next year because we don't know what's gonna happen in 2021. So right now I can give you an overall that we've seen year-over-year of an increase of 8.6 home prices. 8.6 increase nationally on home prices, right? Months of inventory, this is the crazy part, everybody. Months of inventory nationally on average, less than 30 days. That is not sustainable. And for all of you out there, what that means is that a property will not stay on the market longer than 30 days that it sold and there's not that much inventory. So if you've been thinking about, I don't know if I'm gonna get my job back in the next six months or seven months and I'm having a difficult time paying my mortgage, that's when we gotta start thinking of ahead and maybe you're a seller in this market because you can max out and then use your money to survive and then maybe invest later on, right? We were talking about investors earlier. So again, stimulus package has helped. I don't know how long it's gonna help for. The interest rates are helping. We're seeing an increase in average price range, a short supply of listings or properties on the market and an overabundance of buyers. And here's another thing that's really needed and it's starting to happen. New housing development nationally is being built. So a lot of people now where they were stopping, not sure if they could continue building in March, they're building, they're finishing up their properties because now they're selling, right? So properties across the country are selling. You've got properties in the 200,000 to in California, ultra luxury is selling. So the hot price right now in let's say California is if you can get a house anywhere from 700 to 2 million it's gone. And then you've got the ultra luxury which is the five to 12 million. Those are selling depending on location. So it's interesting what's happening nationally. We're seeing an increase and I think this will go on Kena until March and then I don't know. I gotta tell you, I think we're gonna see if we can keep getting inventory and we keep interest rates low and the stimulus keeps coming in. I think consumers are doing something smart. They're paying off their consumer debt. And now they're looking at, how do I become more substantial and have equity? And so whether I'm upgrading or downsizing, how do I secure my position in this economy? So yeah, and I think that's, it's what we're seeing here locally also. Well, it's optimistic, but you have to be realistic. I think that's what you have to see is investors are buying a lot. A lot of people are moving out of areas. Again, taxes are gonna be very different in the next two years based on, what's happening, political environment. That's why it's not surprising Elon Musk move his manufacturing to Austin, Texas. So a lot of people are making moves to different states to coming into Hawaii, to leaving Hawaii. So let's talk about the local economy. You wanna cover that? Well, so we are seeing the same nationally, very low in the story. Our average home price for November is up, up, up. We're sitting at, I mean, I think it's probably an all-time high of an average, a medium of 870. Yep. Our days on the market are, they're flying off the shelves. You can literally, as a listing agent, you can pick when you wanna accept an offer. Do you wanna accept it in three days? Or do you wanna wait a week? So yeah, single family homes, I have agents calling me every day. What listings do you have coming? And I had one call me today and she's like, it's brutal out here. So if you're working with buyers, they're having to go over asking, large earnest money deposits, anything up. We're paying- But this one was market, right? Yes. And six months of inventory is a seller's market. And we're definitely under the 30 days. Or- So just some statistics for you to know. There's been the medium condo price in Oahu is 420,000, okay? And then you've got, you're right on the money on the medium home price, which is 870,000. And here's the thing, out of 338 closed sales, 144 that were sold were on the West side on Oahu. And a lot of active military buyers, right? So the Oahu market is hot, average days on market, and Oahu is 16 days. 16 days. Yeah, that's- So let's go to the, do you mind if we go to the outer islands? No, no, I want you to share. What are we seeing in Maui? So in Maui, let's talk about Maui. So ultra luxury is moving in Maui. And we talk ultra luxury in Maui. We're talking like 10 million and up. So anywhere 10 million, that's ultra luxury. Those properties are selling. What we're finding very interesting during this time, Kena, people are buying vacation rental property site unseen in Maui. They're just like, I visited Maui enough. I don't need to go look at the property. Prices are right. I'm tired of being in Idaho or Canada or Minnesota. And I want to get some warm weather. Some people are taking early retirement. They're coming to Maui. Single family inventory, no surprise to you, is very low. And it's interesting, half of the people buying right now are from the mainland. And even though Maui has been closed down till for five, six months. Okay. The vacation rental business, people are still comfortable in buying it only because they're probably gonna buy something they're gonna stay in as well, right? So they're not gonna buy something now just to have a vacation rental, being that it was shut down for six months, they probably lost a lot of money. So if they buy it, they have to be realistic and go, I'm gonna live there too half a year and then I can rent it half a year. And I gotta make it affordable. So if nobody comes in, I can afford that vacation rental, regardless, right? Oh yeah, exactly. So that's Maui, you wanna jump on the big island? Yeah. Okay, let's talk about the big island. So the lowest inventory ever in the big island in 23 years. Wow. 23 years, okay? And anything under a one million mark on the west side is sold in a few days. So anything on the west side of, that cone of size is sold in a few days, right? Media average price is rising. The COVID has actually accelerated everyone's comfort level, which I told you on Maui, as well as the big island, looking at property via Zoom or video site unseen. Isn't that fantastic? Like you can go around a property with a video, show your client a house, they'll be in Canada and you've got your consumer app so you can look it through that, right? If you're giving your consumer app away. Media price range on the west side is 750,000 and on Hilo it's 326. That's the media, okay? And what I find interesting, Kena, the buyers that are buying or the investors that are investing, don't you think that now that people can work anywhere, they're like, why don't I work somewhere near the ocean? Right, so there's more movement now because literally there's more movement in life. So we'll think about it this way, we're digitally based and physically in a half. So, yes, we have sold a lot of the homes, site unseen, there also, lots of Zoom walkthroughs, Facebook live walkthroughs and we are selling to people who are working remotely. They can now work in Koalina and support their business in San Francisco. So we're seeing that on Oahu. So what is the mainland with people who aren't working remotely and can now leave? What kind of impact do you think that will have on? Just an example, I've already heard of several people that are moving, well, because California and Hawaii are one of the highest states for taxes, right? So you're paying a lot of income taxes in these states. So I'm finding a lot of Californians are either moving, like I said, to Hawaii or they're moving to other states, Texas, Montana. Idaho is a big one. And they can get so much more for their money. So this remote thing is allowing people to move and companies are making a switch now. So I have a millennial that lives across the street for me in California and he works for a company out of Brazil. And Brazil says to him, you can live anywhere that's north of this time zone. So now think about this when moves are based on time zone. So he's like, well, I think I'm gonna move to Tulum, Mexico. It's in the time zone that they require and I get property and I can work remotely. So it's really different what we're thinking about now in terms of how we move, how we buy and what we invest in. And yet housing is still very necessary. I would like to add the thing I would be very cautious of everybody is when you're thinking about this, if you are unemployed right now and you're not sure and you're in the food and beverage industry, you're in the service industry, especially in Hawaii, you gotta really look at the equity you have in your home. And I can't stress this enough, Kina. It is our responsibility as real estate agents to be the economist of choice for our clients, right? And to really let them know all the options that they have in case they have to sell. Because what goes up eventually will come down and what goes down will eventually come up. And so if this is a great time for you to sell as a homeowner and you don't have a job or you're not sure of your job position in the next six months to a year, you can always take that money, as I said, go rent, buy something smaller until the market switches again and you're more stabilized. We're not doing anyone any favors when we put them in forbearance or delinquency. And that's the national thing that I do wanna share, our loan to delinquency is actually at 3% right now across nationwide. And that's really the most we've seen and that's right now in the height of the Great Recession, loan delinquencies when we had short sales, I don't know, were you in that market? No, that was right before I came in, so. So 9.5% of loan delinquencies in the Great Recession, right? And that was the Great Recession was between, the times of 2007 and 2012, I was in that market. That was the financial and the mortgage debacle, right? So even though you're like, well, loan delinquency is only 1%, you gotta realize that there's gonna be a third of the industries that we're in are losing 50% or more of their income. Retail will never be the same, right? Hospitality, tourism won't be the same and that's what we rely on, right? The financial sector is actually doing well. Transportation is actually down and that's airlines, all of that. So we've gotta really think ahead for our clients and the consumers out there. And if you're in a precarious situation where you don't know if you're gonna get any more stimulus and you have a mortgage and you don't know where the job market is gonna be, I'd rather you be conservative than be extravagant. Right now's the time to pull back and really look at your numbers and get values on your home if you own one right now just to know the financial position you're in. Yeah, so because we are seeing most of our properties, we are coming on the market, they're walking away with a good lump sum. It's not always the case, but it's more often than not, they're walking away with a lot more in their pocket than they thought they would. So let's go back to the forbearance. What kind of impact do you think we're gonna see from that? By the end of next year with all these people that took forbearance, what do you present? They're gonna need to have options because you don't wanna put them in a position where they're just really that behind. So there are a couple of options that you have right now and maybe that's something you brought people on the show on to talk about the exchanges, reverse mortgages. So I think that we just have to watch really closely the industry that is not gonna recover in Hawaii and that's where you're gonna see a lot of the consumers, the homeowners going for forbearance is because they were put in a bad position, they didn't have enough savings. So we just need to have options for them. And they need to be really clear about what they're doing. Should they do a reverse? Should they refi? Do they know if they're gonna have a job in the next six months? You know, what does 2021 look like for everyone? So yeah, and that's the big question. And I know we don't have the crystal ball and everybody asks, you know, what are the rates gonna do for 2021? I believe that the rates are gonna stay like that until 2022. That's what I keep saying. That's the feeling I'm getting from homeowners is that they're not only gonna touch the rates until 2022 and they're never gonna just jump up. They're gonna creep up slowly. And you know the saying, right? For every 1% that the interest rate drops, that's the more purchasing power you have as a buyer. So if you're a first-time home buyer and you've been thinking about buying, it's a great time to buy. And, you know, if you're a veteran, you even have, you know, more opportunity to buy. And that's why all the military buyers are buying so much. Oh, yeah. So you gotta take advantage. In every market, there's an advantage for somebody. So what do you think? Cause you know, I work with a lot of investors that do the buy-and-holds or the Burr where they buy, they rehab, they rent, they refinance. And then the fix and flip. So what are you seeing on the outer islands and on the mainland as the future for those that wanna buy and hold their Burr? Well, are there a lot of opportunities? Yeah, there's lots of opportunities in different parts of the mainland. So people aren't flipping in doing that in California, but they are maybe doing that in Texas. Maybe they're doing that in Houston. Maybe they're, you know what I mean? They're buying in different parts where what I'm seeing a lot is people are going, well, I think I might have moved there in six years or five years. So why don't I buy something now, rent it out or work on it or buy land, hold, develop it? So there's a lot of that going on, but it's definitely, there's not a lot of flipping going on in California because people are, if they're gonna buy, they're gonna buy to live in, but there's a lot of new developments coming up, which is very interesting. A lot of work-lifts spaces are happening here. So there's a lot of people looking for multi-units where they can have income coming in while they live in the main house, right? So, you know, there's a lot of new development. We're really having a shortage of properties all across the country. We need new housing everywhere. So, you know, I think that if you're an investor, I had a person once tell me a really famous investor who was really into buying properties and flipping them. He always says, buy at the funeral, sell at the wedding. Right, so are we at the wedding or are we at the funeral right now? I think we're at the wedding. I think, you know, it's a lot of money. Definitely at the wedding. Yeah, so if I were you and you can max out what you're selling, sell it, hold on to your money, and then when market changes again, then you buy and invest and then either flip or start, you know, investing in areas that are up and coming. So, all right, so I just wanna talk about, since you're talking about investors, and your opinion, because again, we don't have critical. Always our opinion, do you think real estate is still the best investment? You know, we hear about Bitcoin, we just hear about, you know, gold and silver was big at the beginning of COVID, Robert Kiyosaki was like gold and silver. Do you, what do you think about real estate as the investment right now? So think about it, what are the three needs of a human being? They need food, clothing and shelter. So, you know what I said? Yes, you can't eat the gold. That's why our business is considered essential, you know what I mean? We are so lucky to be in a business where everything else shut down, but they're like, no, selling homes, buying homes, being in a home, essential. So absolutely, Gary Keller has always said that, if you look at the MREI book, right, Millionaire Real Estate Investor, that's essential, it's the lifeblood of what we have, you know, that's where you actually have the American dream where you can actually build equity. Bitcoins are great, you know, gold is great. Commodity, you know, stock, but what has been and always will be the foundation of any big wealthy person and it's real estate, isn't it a portfolio? Yes, that's definitely what we have found with our own personal investment. Yeah, absolutely, right? Yes, so with that, is there anything else you wanna add that, you know, to give buyers and sellers another little tidbit or? Yeah, I'm just gonna say that I have been through, like I said, three previous shifts. This is one I have never seen before because of COVID-19. So I want you to be really conservative, look at your portfolio, look at your finances. If you've been saving and wanting to buy, you're gonna buy more because the interest rates are low. If you're thinking I'm gonna sell in a year or two, you might wanna think about it now. If you're gonna take early retirement, that's another thing. I'm seeing people take early retirement. They're like, look, you know, I've been in my home for eight months, nine months and I'm quite busy and I have a really good life. So how do you streamline and simplify your life and maximize your equity position? So what I would say to you is, again, we're at the wedding. So if you wanted to sell and you wanted to maximize your equity position, now is the time. If you wanna buy and invest, look at the areas where you can still get a good buy, upcoming neighborhoods, you know, in the mainland, set yourself up with Kina and she'll set you up with somebody in the mainland that can help you invest out there. So be really aware because this can last, I'm gonna say, right, this interest rate will last probably another year. Take advantage of it either way. Even refinancing is a great advantage. You can then preserve the equity and still stay in your home and have lower payments or pay it off faster. So just be really aware that this market will bring advantages to different people who are aware of their financial position and be conservative. Again, we don't know what's gonna happen. I always like to say, buy like if you lost your job, you could still pay your mortgage, right? Yes, and I always tell my clients, you know, what you're approved for and what you can afford are two different things. Absolutely, and we don't wanna go back to 2007. We don't ever wanna put our clients in a position of foreclosure and short pay. That's not great. So there's a really great time right now to really assess your life personally, professionally, financially, emotionally. And what lessons did you learn in 2020? I think we can all agree that we live much simpler now and we enjoy different things, the simpler things in life and like it's funny, you know, like where are you going? This is where we are right now. So do you need to buy those things? What about having an experience? What about investing an experience and your home is an experience? Yeah. You know, upgrade, downgrade, move out, buy an investment property. Then now's the time to be aware about what's next for you in your life, especially after 2020. Yes. All right, well, thank you so much for joining us. It's always great to talk with you. Thank you for having me and I hope I added some value to y'all. Yes. And thank you for joining us on the Life of the Land is in its real estate on Think Tech, Hawaii. I will be traveling during our next program. So you will see a rerun if those are such a thing on Think Tech. So I will see you all again at the end of January. Have an amazing holiday season and please reach out if you have any questions. Aloha.