 So now we turn to Mr. Narayayan who Who is who is the last but we know of course that means he is the first So please sure. Yeah Who is going to further expand our agenda as though it didn't need further expansion? Thank you Marcus It's a privilege to be here at the 10th World Policy Conference and special thanks to Manjia theory for a stewardship of the WPC in these very fractured times the last speaker has Some advantages and some disadvantages much of what I would like to say has been covered But I've been assured by Marcus that I can take in the couple of extra minutes if it comes to that so From what we have just heard from the previous speakers One thing is obvious that the shift in the geopolitical center of gravity from the Euro Atlantic To the Indo-Pacific further overshadowed by the rise of China has led to a very significant churn in relationships and events in Asia Today most of the rivalries in Asia are being played out in Northeast Asia the Indo-Pacific the so-called up bark region and West Asia Asia may today be an area of economic growth but the truth is that Many of the old sources of stability in Asia have broken down Earlier ideological divisions have weakened no doubt but religious orthodoxy Radical Islamist ideology and the terror imperative had become more marked We've heard a lot just now about what's happening in North Korea So I don't have to dilate on that at any point Accepting to say that all of us agree that North Korea poses one of the gravest threats seen to peace In the region and beyond then at any then any other one We also heard a lot about what's happening in in East Asia into some extent Southeast Asia I only want to say that most most of us in Asia are concerned about Where China stands? It's a great civilization But there is an impression that China wishes to exert its authority It's insist on its exceptionalism and its uniqueness and Most nations particularly in East and Southeast Asia are concerned as to where China is headed the 19th Party Congress did little to assuage such concerns and Following China's announcement of its great power ambitions its projection as a military and economic superpower and especially the contents on presidential Make China great against speech has added to these concerns but I'm here basically to speak about South troubles in South Asia and West Asia South Asia Afghanistan in South Asia is today one of the most troubled regions not only in Asia but across the world Afghanistan may be in South Asia, but I think it is the heart of Asia The situation here is extremely fragile The elected government in Afghanistan has lost control over much of the countryside almost 40 percent perhaps even more None of the other groups that are present in Afghanistan Can claim any control any any large-sized control over areas and territories The most distinctive aspects of Afghanistan is the degree of violence that is present there I don't think it's being reflected the same extent as as I think we should as well At least what people of us who live in South Asia and perhaps Southeast Asia are aware of Today the so-called Afghan Taliban the Hakani network The ISIS that is the Islamic State Apart from several other terrorist groups in the indigenous to Afghanistan such as the Hizbe Islami and the Harkat Ilahi Islami They are the defining aspect of Afghanistan The elected government counts for much less than the actual degree of violence that is taking place Almost on an on an average Minimum of about 30 to 40 people are being killed in Afghanistan and this does hardly finds much mentioned there Achieving peace in Afghanistan is entirely dependent on getting the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table This can be achieved only through the exercise of force without Afghan Taliban Agreeing to accept some of the conditions for talks no peace can exist At the same time you can't do that Do the exclusive thing of only the Taliban because there is the ICs specter or the Islamic State specter which has to be there so we have a conflict of of Priorities as far as the region is concerned. I show you that the situation is extremely complex and complicated the occasional increase in troops Listening of troops etc. Has not added to the city and had not brought any bit more measure to the situation There are Efforts being made for peace in Afghanistan There is a Pakistan led quadrilateral Coordination group which includes the United States and China apart from Pakistan and Afghanistan But it is not making any headway Only loud only this month. I think on the sorry last month The Quadrilateral meeting held but two days after the meeting was held there were two devastating attacks in Afghanistan There is another one which is being organized by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization the contact group that is also meeting with the same unfortunate fate Michael mentioned about two other critical areas of conflict in South Asia One is of course the Pakistan India in Brolia, which is going on. I Agree that there are tensions in between the two countries the situation has to some extent deteriorated in the past two years But I think there is a great deal of restraint on both sides So I and I would like to assure this house that the possibility of a major conflict or a Confrontation is not present. It is it is present. It is an ever-present reality But I think the leadership on both sides is aware of the nature of the threat and the seriousness of that threat There's a reference Michael also made to the China India conflict. I was the special representative for border talks with China During the years of the National Security Advisor. We have differences. We have a very long border There are difficulties across the border, but I can assure you that a Conflict an open conflict other than border incursions and border kinds is out of the question We recently had a standoff at a place called Doklam It is it is in Bhutan on the tri-junction between Bhutan India and China and I Can assure this house that Both India and China are conscious of the complications that can arise if they go beyond Certainness there will be tensions for the tensions can will be maintained. So I think China India border problem is not something that we Need to be concerned as a long term that there's a clash between two civilizations, and I think that will continue. I Do think there was there was no mention here about West Asia and I think that is an area which requires a great deal of attention because Four of the of the countries in the world which have the largest Muslim populations are in Asia Indonesia Bangladesh Pakistan India So what happens in West Asia? particularly not so much maybe the clashes as much as the ideological clash that is taking place between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran Creating the possibility of a basic divide Down the middle is highest potential for countries which have large Muslim populations The Shia Sunni balance is something that I think we need to we are in Morocco here We are on the on the periphery of the reason It is something that is going to be going to remain with us for some time It has implications which are not too obvious at this moment. It is not going to be confined to Saudi Arabia I'm sorry to West Asia. It is going to be much beyond that The Qatar standoff with Saudi Arabia is an instance and point of this kind There is also another aspect the Isis Facing is facing some setbacks in areas like Syria and and Iraq and whatnot But do remember that as the Isis is so-called suppressed in this region there Their stormtroopers are moving across the rest of the world We need to be aware that this will Michael touched on this point that Terrorism will be magnified as a result of excessive pressure that has been applied here There's also the aspect that as the Isis weakens other forces are emerging in this area The courts for instance are trying to redraw the boundaries of some of the countries. I Do believe that the next phase of the struggle in West Asia May be determined by the by who control the territory once held by the Isis but Do remember that notwithstanding water was happening in terms of the conflict between countries except the ideology and Appeal of radicalized Islamist movements Especially the Isis and Al Qaeda remains unaffected one word of caution if The Iran nuclear deal was unravelled. I think we will have New area of tensions arising in the region the implications of this. I think I Wish we could have a special session on that what I would like to stress is that Asian security today one of the speakers said that things are better My assessment is that Asian security today is in a state of flux There are major centers of violence that have emerged. There's West Asia, which I briefly touched on There is Afghanistan, which I dealt with in a little more detail There are problems across in parts of Southeast Asia where nations are concerned about the rise of China's Ambitions and of course there are the conflicts in East Asia itself the South China Sea East China Sea sign. Thank you very much