 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire.com or today We are previewing week 14 in the NFL and a couple of big matchups in the AFC by talking to Olivia Moody of the Book it app getting your thoughts on this week's game in a couple of NFC futures. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power rank calm Ed Unlike Greg Williams, you are still here and looking to talk about week 14. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty good I'm glad Adam Kaplan did not fire me over this this past week But you know the jets had it they had they had that game won multiple times I feel like you know when they stopped the Raiders like it was like alright. This is done and I'm not in the situation where I watch full games anymore. Just because You know it just just caught it on red zone and then all of a sudden you flip back for red zone It's like oh, this is a game and then then we saw what everyone saw You know, I personally like the idea of getting a little pressure on the quarterback on that play Maybe not cover zero, but I like I like mixing it up a little bit You know, maybe have one deep safety rush for maybe even five or something like that. Sure didn't work out like rushing three Probably not the way to go because then you can like you can look But that's what about the the quarterback wind up and stuff like that and they did get pressure on Derek R You know to their credit, but when it's I think that it's a different situation when it's Henry rugs because like You know, he can burn people like he doesn't get you know, the target shows never have any rugs But like if he's got a burner dude one-on-one with no over-the-top help he can do it So like it was interesting I think that it was fun to hear people like with the conspiracy theories about the Jets throwing the game like That's that's a fun theory and all until you realize it's Greg Williams because Greg Williams is like the craziest Mf or on the planet and like if anyone is actually gonna do this and I don't say that in a complimentary fashion by the way Like it's it's not meant to be a compliment Like if anyone's gonna do that in in a serious sense and not in a sense of taking for Trevor Lawrence it's him and That's why that's where the conspiracy theory stopped for me is oh, it was Greg Williams. I feel like the argument stops right Is he gonna get another job as a DC? He's probably got 17 offers already if you listen to him that he had that press conference I think it was when he took the Jets job He's like I had seven head coaching offers don't even have to interview just sign They had they were waiting to sign me, but I wanted to come here and So obviously Ed he's had 17 offers already. Just hasn't found the right one yet. So right because there's obviously Because there's 17 openings. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's Greg Williams. You drop everything you got to get Greg Williams on your team That's just how things work at this is the NFL Get learned as they would say we're gonna talk to Olivia moody here in just a bit to preview week 14 on the NFL You can find on find her on Twitter at live moods LIV M. Oh DS you can find her on the book it app We're gonna talk to her about what book it is and get her thoughts on week 14 if you're looking for some college football thoughts We had Edward Igor I saw yesterday to talk college football week 15 got his thoughts on some big pack 12 games To find that episode with Edward just go to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an app podcast Spotify stitcher the Google Play Store. I hear radio radio calm Etc. Etc. You can find us there and if you like what you hear from Edward Olivia or either of us Make sure you leave a rating interview as well now and you mentioned that you didn't get fired this past week I probably should have based on one of the bets I recommended for week 13 before we get to Olivia We got to talk about that and recap what went down last week Covering the past So last week here on covering the spread we had Fabian summer on to preview week 13 You can follow or find Fabian on Twitter at s u u ma a 10 Fabian one of the over Browns Titans at 53 and a half it did close at 54 and they actually went over that total pretty early in the third quarter I finished at 76 total points. So an easy win there for Fabian and I had a lot of DFS teams around that that game It did not save me. I still had a terrible week, but it was nice in that perspective Yeah, I mean, you know, everyone thought they'd have 30 Cleveland would have 38 points at half, right? Yeah, obviously Donovan people's Jones contributing to the the over there. Yeah, exactly. He was wide open on that one Oh, yeah, he burned them and Broken plays aren't sustainable. That's why you look at stuff like success rate That is more predictable and stuff like that But watching Donovan people's Jones straight down the sideline is still fun regardless Even if it's not sustainable or predictive Fabian was leaning Buffalo minus three against the 49ers That line moved a lot before kickoff He was all over the place it settled that San Francisco minus one and a half But Fabian was right regardless because the bills won that game by 10 points to get him the cover there both Fabian I Had action on the Rams Cardinals game. This one was not my bad bed of the week I he wanted the Cardinals plus three I had the over at 48 and a half and it closed at Rams minus two and a half at the total at 49 One play here helped me and hurt Fabian a lot That was actually a pick six by Kyler Murray pick six is awesome for totals Not so awesome for covers. So the over did hit here and finished at 66 points, but the Rams went by 10 So still a two and one week for Fabian there and I needed that over because my other game was pretty bad I wanted the over on the Chargers team total at 24 points. My rationale was I Don't want to touch the money line. I don't want to touch the spread because I don't trust the charges coaching staff Probably should have listened to that line of analysis as opposed to the analysis about the Chargers offense being good and the the Patriots defense being bad Because the Chargers got shut out There was line movement towards the Chargers late in the week, but I at least got in before that happened still absolutely brutal Ed and I don't think there's anything redeeming about this one honestly Well, I mean the Chargers had 258 yards. I mean it's kind of hard to score zero points when they had 258 yards Like is there an expected point total that you get out of 258 yards? So I'm guessing it's not even close to 24 like we're talking like 17 ish probably expected point 13 13 when I look at I got a little model with yards for past attempts in total yards. So 13 More than halfway there. Yeah more than halfway there So I can take like 50% of an expected point, you know, sure, but let's go with that. You know, why not 53 expected wins. There you go. It so it's not the worst bet ever But it's pretty darn close like people will tweet at me when I make bad Recommendations whether it be on this show or on DFS and like usually it annoys me because I like, you know, whatever I it's annoying to like put our picks out there and get roasted I could not get mad at anyone who came back at me on Twitter this past week Like if you if you tweeted at me about this game Well, yeah, it's deserved. So that's on me kudos to you. You're right. I'm wrong I can't I can't clap back at it So feel free to roast me at your earliest convenience yours was much better Because you were looking for the best line you could get on the Washington against Pittsburgh game and the under on that game It actually closed at Pittsburgh mine is six. I think it was eight and a half when we talked the total was 44 points at close. I think the lowest it got was probably around 43 or so. I think you said you got a 43 and a half. Yeah, I ended up getting it at 43 and a half So I think I did that Friday morning. The end will had it at 40 It was 42 and a half action. We talked I forgot. Yeah, we talked. I thought you said you you were like John Sheeran You snake like Person John Sheeran off-air, of course, but yeah, well, whatever. Hey the man's doing his job It's really I know he's doing his job too. Well, that's the issue, right? Well, whatever I went I went elsewhere. I got under 43 and a half But it didn't matter because you won either way because even if you bet that game at close You still would have gotten the win here because Washington rallied late to get the win outright The game finished with just 40 points So being low on Pittsburgh was beneficial for you here in case people didn't see it whether it be on covering the spread Last week or on your Twitter video that you had, you know, outlining this What was your rationale for being low on Pittsburgh going into that game? Yeah, I mean just the offense, right? I mean they they look good in terms of points scored per game, but there's three defensive scores in there There's a lot of takeaways that have probably resulted in some pretty good field position But 20 second in terms of my adjusted success rate. That's what I know is going to be Important going forward, you know, you could definitely see Pittsburgh winning that game with a with a critical turnover Or maybe even a pick six or fumble recovery for a touchdown. They didn't end up getting that against Washington and you know, I mean, I didn't expect them to lose but but it's Yeah, I mean, you know, they weren't gonna live up to an 11-0 record Right and I think that if we can bet against records at certain points This time of the year people records are more well known and stuff like that Yeah, it makes a lot of sense that was beneficial there as we discussed yesterday I think that there is actually a by-low spot on the the Steelers now based on the way the markets that swung against them We'll talk more about that with Olivia in just one second But first every football fan dreams of meeting the greatest NFL players of all time and starting this week Fanduil and goat fuel have teamed up to make dreams a reality and Fanduil's goat gauntlet series powered by goat fuel Fount fans will put their fantasy knowledge to the test by competing for a chance to take on the NFL's greatest of all time Here's how it works over the course of the next three weeks There will be three qualifier contests highlighting a specific position wide receiver running back or quarterback and an NFL goat Those who win the qualifier contest or roster the highest scoring player for that week's highlighted position Will be automatically entered into the finals where they'll have a chance to play Against three NFL goats Jerry Rice and the Smith and Warren Moon and compete for their share of $10,000 in cash prizes goat fuel products and an exclusive virtual meet-and-greet with the NFL Hall of Famers for more details as a Fanduil comm slash goat fuel Goat fuel or download the Fanduil app today eligibility restrictions apply Let's get set for week 14 now with Olivia moody You can find her on Twitter at live moods and check her out on the book it app She is the director of media for book it and an in-app host for them as well We're gonna break down week 14 and get her thoughts on a couple of NFC futures as well Covering the present Let's bring Olivia moody into covering the spread to preview week 14 in the NFL Olivia. Welcome to covering the spread How you doing today? I'm doing great. I'm excited to talk with you and thanks so much for having me Absolutely, it's a pleasure to have you on here and talk some NFL before we do that You are with a new app called book it and I I've read a little bit about it But I don't know a whole lot about the concept. So what exactly is book it? And what are you doing over there on your end? Yeah, so on book it right now It's pretty much just a social media platform for betting The idea came to the my CEO because he's like, you know what everyone follows a million different betting accounts on their Twitter And on their Instagram, but it kind of gets lost in the other posts from their friends and their family And this is an app where it's just sports betting And so you can there's a there's a news feed that you can kind of tweet essentially not really tweet but post your picks you can post the lines you can You know post your track your bets So you can't actually place a bet on our app Which is why I typically head over to Fando to place all my bets Yeah, you can track all of your bets though, which I have learned Since I just got into this a little bit ago that like tracking your bets is huge and that's kind of how you figure out what works for you And what doesn't so it's a great way to track your action as well as interact with other sports betters At some point. Hopefully very soon. We will have Cappers on there that have picks for people and just advice in general because I think in the sports betting industry I mean can be a little intimidating and a lot of people don't realize how much fun it is because they're too caught up in the Plus minus money line all these things that just intimidate them But really sports betting is for everyone and and everyone loses so that shouldn't scare you away from it Even the best cappers in the world no matter what the Instagram bio says they lose So yeah, it's just a place to kind of interact with other betters, which is super fun Excellent, how did you how did you end up getting involved with bogey? So Trent and I both went to TCU. I graduated from TCU this past May I wouldn't really call it graduating because right and I ruined everything, but I Yeah, right I went there and I was a journalism major But I got into I was asked to be the sports host my senior year and Trent was a sports broadcasting major So he saw all my things He actually wanted the job that I got oops, but at least the opportunity to be seen by him and I graduated during a pandemic when sports weren't existing He brought this idea to me and I was like I think this is what I'm supposed to do right now This is great and it's entered me into this Community of people that is just awesome. I really didn't understand the magnitude of sports betting and how Popular and how, you know, it's it's rising. It's an industry that's just getting started, which is super exciting So I didn't realize how much fun I would have with it and I I love it Well, it's tough to learn so much on the fly So what have you been doing to try to like acclimate yourself to the world of sports betting? You know what have you been studying in order to get yourself conscious speed on all this? Yeah, um, I Think first thing that's the most important is set aside your ego and learn from other people And that's what I did I latched on to people like Ariel Epstein and Megan and I watched their things and I realized okay here are two women That know a lot about this like I can do it too and all sometimes that's all you need is just to see that somebody else Like you was doing it and then you're like, okay, I've got this. I think learning And again from Luke from learning, uh, I don't learn unless I lose. So I know that sounds really horrible So I bet really small amounts because I'm not rich, okay? So I can't afford to be losing a lot So I bet really small amounts, but losing is where I learned the most I figure out what works and what doesn't I'm slowly finally starting to figure out What works the best for me? Some people shop the line some people like look at stats for the teams And I'm figuring out my mojo my betting mojo. So I'm finally getting on the right track, but it really just took Asking questions feeling a little bit dumb sometimes and just let your guard down and say hey I don't know what this means. Please explain it. So Yeah, we've learned plenty from Megan over the past the past year or so too So we can definitely relate to that as well now you do other sports in addition to NFL as well, correct? Yeah, yeah, so I just I mean my job is a little bit weird right now because I do Sports betting with bucket and I also just talk sports in general. That's what I did my senior year as a host I would do sports reports every single week So I find myself like going in that direction and I'm like whoa I'm in bedding like sometimes people don't care about those those pieces of information So I really talk all sports primarily. I love basketball. I always have I always will Love basketball. Believe it or not. I just started liking MLB this year I hated baseball before But I was pretty good at betting it and maybe it's because I didn't use my heart at all because I didn't enjoy the sport So I was just looking at the numbers. I was just looking at the facts I didn't have a relationship with any of the teams or the players and I was pretty successful in MLB So I grew to love that next on my list is hockey I need to get a little bit of hockey in my system, but other than that. I like pretty much all sports at this point Excellent, so let's talk some NFL Playups are getting here pretty quick and let's stick to the the worst division in football to NFC East So it looks like Washington and New York Giants are kind of getting near the top But it's kind of all over the place Giants look like the favorite at minus 145 Washington's at plus 160 Do you like anything in this futures market? I Do I like Washington plus 160 to be completely honest with you. I really like that Both Washington and the Giants have two games over the Eagles and the Cowboys. I have given up on the Cowboys. I'm done. Goodbye I can't deal with them anymore. I every time I bet on them. They let me down. I'm done with them So are you a Cowboys fan? It's you at TCU. So are you a Cowboys fan then or no? Let's just put it this way Cowboy fans ruined it for me But the chirping the noise the over the top it just turned me away. So no, I am not Okay, so bullet dodge there. So we're all good. Yes Yes, so based on the strength of the remaining schedule. I really like Washington plus 160 We basically need the Giants to lose And the Washington to win more than you know, they lose at this point. So After watching the Browns Dominate the Titans. I think the Browns should win against the Giants. So I don't think the Giants will win that game I don't see the the Giants beating Ravens defense either with Lamar Jackson being back I just don't see it and I do think the Cowboys game is a little bit of a toss up But I think the Giants will either go one in three or oh and four and I think Washington will do pretty well I actually like Washington this weekend, but we'll get back to that in a second So yeah, I think Washington plus 160 is great because I don't see the Giants winning very many of their remaining games I say they go one one and three or oh and four is my guess So we'll see. Washington's playing good football and that defense is solid too Well, and the markets seem to be agreeing with you as well because we saw that line Pittsburgh even favored by nine get all the way down to six So that's strong evidence and in support of that as well Let's talk here about the NSC championship odds because those are pretty wide open to there doesn't seem to be a real Standout team right now. Nobody's shorter than the Saints at plus 220 But then there are five teams at plus 650 or shorter There's a lot up in the air for the NSC championship odds Olivia anything you like here from an NSC championship perspective Or is it a market you're staying away from? You know what? I am staying away from it I think every team at this point has shown weaknesses In some way shape or form. So I think I need to see the remainder of this schedule See the rest of these these games play out before I make any decisions because every team Has shown weakness at this point and I just don't know where I would go. So it's better for me to just sit out Yeah, absolutely Let's talk about some games. So Minnesota go Minnesota goes to Tampa Bay Two teams that have I think been kind of up and down all year Bucks are six and a half point favorite with the total of 51 and a half Tom Brady and his boys are coming off a buy here You know, Minnesota is kind of still on the hunt. What are you seeing in this game? I? Like the Bucks to get back on track for this game. I like the Bucks I'm not sure I'm confident enough to take the spread on this one But I do like Bucks money line at the end of the day. Yes, the Bucks haven't been super consistent But Tom Brady is still Tom Brady and so I do like them to get on track after the buy week So I think I'm gonna take the money line for this one and the under I like under 51 and a half for this game, which I don't know why I'm even doing that because every time I bet over under it just does not go how I so you would think at this point I would give up on it But I just keep trucking along hoping for a better outcome So I like the under here and I also like Bucks money line But I don't I don't feel confident enough to take the spread on this one Yeah, we've been talking a lot about totals for the season because like the the numbers have been pretty outrageous They've been coming down a bit recently But I guess my general philosophy is that I value my like heart health and therefore like refuse to bet unders Because it makes me so tense and I just like like they could be the best value on the board But like I don't think my heart can take it at a certain point and like I think that that's that's maybe that's oh Maybe that's bad betting, but I just like from a mental health perspective. I can't do it anymore Well, it's very true because when you bet the over you you kind of still tell yourself There's still time right time like second half. Oh, we've got it But when it's when you're betting the under and like the first quarter you've already it's just like Oh my gosh. Yeah, so I I don't know why I'm betting the spread. I'm taking the risk hoping that things go a little bit better I bet the oh, I bet the under in the Browns Titans game, which if you watch do you understand? That was probably the worst bet I've ever made But I just can't I really can't trust the Browns sometimes so I thought it would be a low-scoring game I honestly thought that was a lock. I even tweeted about it This is my lock of the week and of course it just did not go it was to run heavy teams I think the thought process makes sense there and I bet the chargers over 24 points in the team total last week So we don't need to talk about bad bets. You're off the hook here. I've got you covered for bad bets So you're totally fine there. Let's talk about Sunday They football the Steelers at the bills the bills two and a half point favorites here the total is now up to 48 points It's gone up point a half here in the past hour or so and the Steelers looked pretty bad Monday against Washington And finally took their first loss that's helped swing the spread here three and a half points from what it was on the lookahead line So do you think that creates like a by-law spot here for the Steelers or is that pessimism now warranted in this game? so one thing that I have learned that kind of works for me is Grabbing value when you can because the line does move and that's something when you're new to betting You don't really you see a number and you go with it But it does move quite a bit and I do see the public betting very heavily on the bills in this matchup So I'm kind of leaning towards fading the public and going with the Steelers because I feel like the line will start moving in Their favor as we get closer to Sunday I could be totally wrong But I do see that the public the public is gonna bet heavy on the bills based on the Steelers performance on Monday So I could see the line moving to favor the Steelers So I kind of like fading the public on this one and taking the Steelers to cover That's that's my gut right now. I'm not sure if it's a good one, but that's how I'm feeling about it Yeah, I do feel like that's the way the market is gonna go I'm not just because my my numbers have these at a push, but I do feel like it's gonna come back a little bit of excitement about the bills But I mean Josh Allen's been great this year, so I think there is reason For the other side as well All right, so last game. Let's go to Monday night. We got Baltimore at Cleveland Ravens are looks like now one and a half point favorite for the total of 46 and a half Baltimore destroyed Cleveland in the first game of the season, but Baltimore's had their issues since then They do look they do look like they're getting healthy Mark Andrews the tight end and Clays Campbell Defensive linemen are off the the injured list. So any thoughts on this game? Yeah, I like Ravens minus one and a half. I will give credit where it's due Cleveland Brown Cleveland Browns their offense has made significant improvements. I will give credit there They have looked a lot better than they did especially since the first time they played the Ravens. However, I think up against Ravens defense That offense is gonna get shut down Ravens secondary shut them down once and they'll do it again in my opinion I think minus one and a half is a little bit low So I I was expecting the spread to be way different So I like minus one and a half here again credit where it's due the Browns have looked awesome in comparison to how they started their season But I think up against Ravens defense They're not gonna stand a chance in my opinion Yeah, I mean I'm a big Baker may feel believer in general, but like even with that perspective in mind It's really hard to get to one and a half here given that defense like Ed said getting healthier Clays Campbell being back Lamar Jackson finally looking, you know a little bit like his old self on Tuesday It's weird to say Tuesday But against the Cowboys like it does seem like they've turned a corner and think to remember about the Ravens that they had a pretty Brutal stretch of schedule earlier this year and then they had the COVID hit so like I think it makes sense now If you're going to if you believe in this Ravens offense, which I mean like they've got the reigning MVP So I wouldn't you I think if you are a believer in the Ravens now is the time to buy a low Is that part of your thought process trying to get in on them after the schedule really just kind of worked against them for a bit? Yes, for sure. And like I said, I this could be a game where we see the spread move a little bit We it could it could move a little bit before the game happens. That's why I'm thinking minus one and a half That's that's a spread that I like so I'm gonna grab it while I can Yeah, I really like it. I I agree. I think that's sorry to play things for that pretty fun AFC North game any other game standing out to you from a value perspective for week 14 Olivia based on the odds over at Yeah, I really like Washington right now. I like them to cover Here's the deal. They're looking for a playoff spot They are coming off of a huge win against the Steelers a little bit more little bit of momentum there And the 49ers are also playing on a shorter week having played on Monday night Yeah, I like Washington defense. I really do. I just they've been looking so great and I love betting I don't like betting against them. I like betting on them And I in my personal opinion, I think Chase Young shuts down Nick Mullins. That's my prediction And I like Washington to cover for this one. Yeah, Washington three and a half They're the spread over at Fandals sportsbook minus 118 on that one And I think it makes sense if you like Washington to win this game makes sense to go into that NFC East market Bet them a plus 160 so hopefully a good couple of values there for the Washington football team in Maron Rivera for this week That is Olivia moody make sure you follow her on Twitter at live moods and check out all of her stuff over on book at Olivia We really appreciate the time. Good luck to you in week 14 and hopefully we'll talk to you again here soon. Thank you Covering the future One final big thank you to Olivia moody for swinging by and breaking down week number 14 again Follow her on Twitter at live moods and check her out on the book it up where she is the director of media and an in-app Post for them as well and Ed one thing you want to note here was on that 49ers in Washington game under pretty unique circumstances here Oh, yeah, I mean, they're playing in Arizona again, right? So You know that docked San Francisco a little bit only a point this year because that's what I'm using his home field But I consider a neutral site Maybe less so this week just cuz San Francisco's probably stayed in Glendale. Yeah, they did yeah over the course of the week So maybe not as much this week, but I still have a mark as a neutral site when I do my predictions and Yeah, just something to consider. I mean just a little bit more of an edge for for Washington could have been consideration last week in that Bill's game we saw the bills play really well there Maybe we see a similar thing this week with Washington's a lot of Washington football team love here in week 14 Gotta love that. Let's move now into covering the future for week number 14 Ed You want to talk about one of those big divisional games one that Olivia liked was the Baltimore side It sounds like you were on the same thing here for your cover in the future Yeah, absolutely. I definitely I definitely like the Baltimore side in this You know Baltimore is not really the same team. They were last year the offense I mean just just really isn't the same either running or throwing the ball. Let's just focus on the throwing You know last year they were seventh when you look at my adjusted success rate on pass plays 29th this season and So they really struggled there But it's still like I'm still pretty powerful running attack And including the Baltimore and the defense is pretty good for Baltimore. So that's the unit that ranks 11th when I look at my adjusted success rate They're gonna get clay as Campbell back on the defensive line. It looks like March Andrews is gonna be back for the offense Big time target for Lamar Jackson. So, you know, Baltimore is looking Pretty healthy given their COVID concerns from from just I guess two weeks ago Was when it really bit them. Now, let's talk about Cleveland I just think this is a team that's really not in the same class as Baltimore So you look at their record and they're nine and three and just like I think Pittsburgh was the most overrated 11 and 0 team Last week, I think Cleveland is the most overrated nine and three team You can look at their record in one score games. They're six and oh So that's an unsustainable win rate in those games and that's gonna regress to to 500 And then let's look at the underlying metrics as well, you know The Browns are only 19th when you look at my adjusted success right here offense Not not what you would really think of in terms of what they Did last week against Tennessee? And the defense is actually last when we look at adjusted success rate so that's actually worse than the awful Tennessee defense that Cleveland beat up on last week and Denzel Ward their cornerback one of the best players one of their best two players on that side He's been out the last two games is also questionable. So, you know, you know in thinking about this game like My model makes Baltimore almost a five-point favorite. So so why is this? You know, why is this spread so low? You know, you kind of think about Cleveland and just you know being up 38 to 7 and half against Tennessee Is that playing in people's minds? I don't really understand it You know, I got this a Baltimore minus one so one and a half I don't think it'll get to three, but I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised if it moved a little bit more Yeah, it's it's a two and a half some places now, too So I think that it probably will move for sure and like looking at Cleveland schedule Tennessee the offense to good like he said the defense that was hideous before that they faced the Jaguars Two-point win there five point win against the Eagles who has since been since bench their quarterback Three point went over the Texans that game was a bit more impressive because it was in pretty bad weather and Nick Shubb had that long run we're not a bounce That was a more impressive score. Yeah, the Raiders game. They lost by 10 bad weather there as well They beat the Bengals by three when Joe Burrow was healthy It's not you know, not terrible But that's those are the games they played since they lost 38 to 7 to Pittsburgh We know that Pittsburgh obviously is not like the best team and I think that the situation where The offense gets out of sync is when they're facing defense that can put them off schedule because this offense revolts So heavily around play-action putting Baker may feel in good situations It's harder to do that when you have Clays Campbell and you know Yannick and Gokway was not there when they in these teams first played back in week number one It's a tough situation. I still respect this Baltimore defense a lot I respect the Baltimore offense enough where I think that if you're gonna go with this game Even at two and a half. I think that's still enough value to go with Baltimore. Like if you have two and a half right now I think that's fine as well. I think that It's a good time like we said at Olivia to get in on this Baltimore offense Given the circumstances they face but also conversely the circumstances Cleveland is faced to yeah for sure All right So my cover in the future for this week is a scary one because we're riding Kirk Cousins Against a good pass rush, but I'm gonna do exactly that here I want the Vikings plus six and a half against Tampa Bay and this is not an anti Tampa Bay thing I know that's kind of in vogue given. They've had these weird blips It's more about actually believing in the Vikings which potentially makes it scarier But specifically the defense has gotten a lot better recently with some recent gains They're actually up to 15th in schedule adjusted past defense based on number fires metrics They played some backup quarterbacks recently, which will influence things there But when they face legit quarterbacks even things have been less embarrassing there of late So I think the defense getting better. So not good. It's not a good defense by any means But it's not as terrible as it was to open the year I also think this offense is a bit underrated. They are up to eighth and schedule adjusted passing offense That's actually one spot ahead of Tampa Bay in this exact same game So the defense is playing better the offense should be able to move the ball through the air even against a tough opponent That's a good formula to at least get a cover here The narrative around Kirk Cousins is that he collapses under pressure and that could be the case But he's actually played well this year while trying to make up ground He's at 0.57 passing that expected points per drop back while trailing by a touchdown or more in the second half So even if they do fall behind a backdoor cover is not out of consideration here not out of the discussion So if you don't want to deal with the volatility of the Vikings, which I understand when betting a spread Maybe you want to exploit that volatility. You can bet the Vikings money line at plus to 245 I think that's in play as well, but I'd rather take the points here. It's not about fading Tampa Bay It's about buying into what I think is an improved Vikings team that's throwing the ball pretty well right now So I want to buy the Vikings here plus six and a half Against Tampa Bay now add that's based on what number fires numbers say what do your numbers say about the Vikings But also about this game more broadly Yeah, I mean my numbers like Tampa Bay about four four and a half so they would definitely agree with with your side and Yeah, I mean, Minnesota's had you know, I mean, I think they had a lot They they had a young secondary but then some injuries as well Yeah, so the fact that they're you know even getting the NFL average is probably a good sign for that team Yeah, and I think it's worthwhile to trust Mike Zimmer. I know that we can poke and prod him for his insistence upon running the football like it's justifiable to you know make fun of him for that But the defensive side, he's still a smart coach knows how to coach things up there The pass rush is really bad So I think that that's why it's hard for me to bet the money line here But I think that the spread does make sense and having trust in the Vikings at least keeping this game close So give me a plus six and a half on Minnesota that is all the time that we have for today here on covering the spread big Thank you to our guests for this week Edward e-gross on the college side and Olivia moody on the NFL side follow Edward e-gross at Ed with sports check out his podcast as well on the fan dual podcast network Odds and Ed's and also check out Olivia on the book it app And where she is the director of media and on Twitter at live moods and what is going on for you this week over at the powering? Yeah, so please if you want to get some more of my predictions and analysis sign up for my free email newsletter You can get that at the powering calm and then members of my site get all my analysis Earlier in the week when I do it all the things I talk about on covering the spread and covering the future So if you're interested in that including and obviously you mean you get all my all my best predictions For college football NFL and college basketball as well You can check out the powering net that'll take you to a place on my site where you can learn more about becoming a Member all right the powering net to find that out. Don't forget the YouTube page the powering dot US as well They get some Drew Martin videos, which can always make us a little bit smarter as well I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J I M S A N and ES You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast our DFS podcast week 14 went up earlier today with Myself and Brandon Gadoula Breaking down the week 14 and main slate and talking through all the fun games that are there from a DFS perspective as well Big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck with your bets in week 14 We'll talk to you once again next week for some college football Championship week that should be a whole lot of fun. We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network