 The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a major disruption to the global healthcare system. We have developed a mathematical model to explore the trade-off between home quarantine and hospitalization. The model takes into account the time-varying cure rate and mortality, as well as the willingness of people to go to the hospital. When the transmission rate is low, high hospitalization levels can contain the virus, while when it is high, high hospitalization levels can cause a breakdown of the healthcare system. Our model was tested with data from Japan and other countries, and the results were consistent with the real world. This article was authored by Kyugwa, Ikang Lu, Yini Geng, and others.