 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, May 27th, 2020. I'm Chief Meteorologist John Ensworth for Longmont Public Media. This Friday, May 29th, we're at a first quarter moon, about half of it illuminated, rising it around noon and setting just after midnight. The weather this week is transitioning from spring to summer. This is going to feel like summer. It's going to look like summer. But first we have a little front on Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday is going to drift down into this vicinity. This forecast map doesn't show it making it past Longmont, but I think it probably will. You're going to get some moisture, storms firing up any mountains overnight and drifting out on the adjacent plains, and that is us. The big picture over the next 10 days involves that front. I've marked it here with this dotted line. Most of the ensemble models, different runs of all the same model, have precipitation happening on Thursday. Our normal low temperature is this climbing blue line here and the normal high is up here. So this front is going to knock temperatures down to just briefly into the upper normal region before real heat comes back. We are seriously above normal on through the weekend. Even low temperatures are far above normal. We get another bit of a front around the second of June, and that begins a cool down and we'll take a look a little bit further out at the end of today's discussion. So there could be a little front out here too. These are not earth shaking fronts. You can see some precipitation here, but not all the runs have it. It's actually a little bit later that we get more rain. On Wednesday we have a chance of convection around. This is going to become the rule that every afternoon you'll see thunderstorms start up in the mountains and some will drift out on the plains and we might get a spot of rain. Some lightning is dangerous. Don't take lightning for granted. Get inside. Get some place sheltered if lightning is nearby. There are plenty of weather apps that will alert you, like Weatherbug, to approaching lightning. By Thursday morning we have this building ridge out here, and this ridge is going to be the story for the next week, but we have a trough passing by just enough to punch down into this eastern side of this ridge. And with Northwest Flow, we've talked about it a lot here, Northwest Flow with a little ripple and it can kick off a front and some rain and some activity, that's what we have here for Thursday. We have this deep low down in Texas, that's really interesting to see down there. When we back up here, notice that on Wednesday most of the severe weather is right down here in Texas and along the Gulf Coast and Southern Atlantic Coast. That are going on to Thursday, still some severe weather down here in Texas and just a chance of convection up through the central mountains along the I-25 corridor, including Lawnmont. From there to Sunday, it's all about this ridge. That ridge was sitting over the western states, it is drifted a little bit east to sit directly on our head from Sunday into Monday. And we have moisture around. First map is precipitable water. This is how much water you could get out of the atmosphere in an ideal situation of convection, say. And the darker greens and blues are very moist air. So we have some Pacific moisture here, we have Gulf moisture out into the plains here. Some Gulf is fed up into the mountains, has Pacific moisture. We have plenty of moisture around Wednesday. So all it takes is something to lift it up to keep those thunderstorms off with some daytime heating, acting as a trigger. For the next five days, even with all that excitement, not a lot of rain. We have less than a tenth of an inch out here on the plains, maybe a quarter inch near town and over the balt boulder, just up to but below an inch up the foothills, so not a lot. Now this next map is just to show you how things can be crazy. This is the same model, so just adding five more days. And look at this, three to four inches of rain right around here and up around boulder and up in the mountains. I don't think this is realistic, other models are not agreeing with the GFS, so it's getting a little overly excited with the convection here. But Sunday there's still lots of moisture, look at that feed of moisture from the oceans here and here up into the entire inner mountain west. And we have lots of abnormally high precipitable water values here. So again, a little heat and moisture, that gives you thunderstorms. Taking a look further out, we have a week and a half away Monday, so this is looking far out. And this is the next time that a big trough comes in, so it's a ridge for the next week plus, until this one comes in and really cools us down just as noon, Monday, June 8th. And probably some good storms going off here. So in our next video, about a week from now, we should follow up on this and see if this actually comes to be. The next week then is 80s, cooling down briefly with our cold front Wednesday night into Thursday. We return to the upper 80s and top the 90s as that ridge really gets overhead. We have a chance of afternoon thunderstorms, better early on here with this front, giving out a little focus to the activity, but all the way through the whole week, every afternoon you might see the cause build up and start to hear some thunder and maybe get it hit by some rain. Chances are it will be less than an inch overall for the week, but we'll see. For more frequent weather updates, as soon as I get my account set up, it will be there at the Longmont Leader, replacing the Longmont Observer for local news and events. So please go visit the Longmont Leader. That goes live when this video goes live on the 27th. This has been your weather forecast for the week beginning May 27th. I'm Chief Meteorologist, John Innsworth, keep looking up.