 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend. In my wrap-up show, I hope everybody had a fantastic week of trading. You know, the more things change, the more things stay the same. You have the same hotbed of news, right? You have COVID cases, very, very aggressive now, especially in the West Coast and Florida, in Texas, right? Very, very aggressive. It's incredibly surprising that the tri-state area, especially in New York and New Jersey, that were literally one in two cases for the last four or five months, really flatline. And that's a really, really great, it's obviously a really great thing, especially considering we had all these significant people in the streets at the same time with all the protesting and all that stuff, 4th of July, everything. The fact that we're kind of like in this flatlining area is actually pretty good. And now what's going on in the rest of the country is a whole different thing. But again, the cases are getting aggressive. That's not stopping the economy. It looks like most of the things are opening up. Even Disney had its opening weekend despite enormous amounts of COVID cases in Florida. You know, again, the show must go on. You have the NBA starting soon. You have Major League Baseball starting soon. You know, obviously contingency plans. Schools are starting soon. I looked at the calendar. I can't believe it's ready in the middle of July. We've already had numerous conference calls with my kids' schools. Obviously, there is a plan and session for the fall to begin. But there's obviously the concern for the kids' safety, obviously everything else. But again, it's not stopping the market. The market is absolutely on fire. And when people say that, they are talking about the market, right? The overall market. If you look down and you really dig deep in what's going on in this incredibly aggressive, just completely irrational, right? I think most people would say that. If you look at that run of 2020, considering what we've been seeing now for four, five, almost six months of the economy pretty much on a standstill, if you really break down what's happening here, it's not really the market that is exploding. It's the NASDAQ that's exploding. Let me show you guys what I'm kind of talking about. If you look at, for the week, if you look at the week, the Dow Jones was up 1%. The S&P was up 1.8%, which is good. Phenomenal, showing a lot of incredible strength. But if you look at what's going on, the NASDAQ composite was up 4%. And obviously, when you look at the NASDAQ composite, and you see these runaway trains, Amazon, and Tesla, and Netflix, and Zoom, and it is obviously countless others. And if you look at what is happening in this whole euphoria is look at the other major indexes, right? If you look at, for example, the diamonds, the diamonds have not been exploding. Obviously, the market is way off its march lows. But if you look at, if you actually look and see what's happening, we're actually consolidating here for over a month in this really, really tight channel. If you look at the S&P, for example, and look at the spies, you kind of have the same thing. We've been kind of consolidating this channel now for a very, very long time. And if you look at the Russell, the Russell's actually underperformed all the other indexes. And again, if you think about, especially retail and speculation money flow, the idea that, again, of course, it held the bottom of the range here and looks like it wants to bounce back up. But again, you could see how aggressive this channel is. And if you go back into the NASDAQ 100, the NASDAQ composite, the Qs, you could see how where the money flow is actually going. And I started thinking about a couple of days ago, the safety precautions. As traders, we always want to think about safety first, because again, this was exactly what was going on during the dot-com craze. And again, I would be the first one to admit, number one, I didn't know what the hell I was doing. Number two, I got very, very lucky. I think everybody who traded has started trading that then. I think if you believe, if you deceive yourself, you actually thought you knew what you were doing to make you money compared to what you actually skill set, you didn't. At least I acknowledge that. I got very, very lucky. I was in the right place, right time in the right market and it really bought me some time to kind of figure this thing out. But we thought at that juncture, this was never going to end. Never, never going to end. This was going to be our careers. We stumbled onto this amazing thing called trading in the stock market and it was going to be amazing. It was literally going to be powerball every single day. We have no worries. And then one day it stopped. And again, I'm not recording this video to turn around and say, well, you have to be careful. I think at this juncture, people are smarter, right? People, you know, obviously there will be a lot of people who eventually will get caught on a back test and they won't realize it's happening. But I do believe a lot of people, whenever this gravy train ends, and again, maybe this gravy train ends Monday, maybe this gravy train ends in 2026. Okay, we don't know. I think the fact that I stopped thinking, being cautious is one thing. Stop thinking, trying to predict the future is another thing. But I think a lot of people have learned their lessons, especially for those who did start out trading back in 99-2000 area. We figured out a long time ago that this is eventually going to end. So we start trading with a lot more precaution. Again, as you get older, you do get wiser. Maybe not me. I'm the king of the idiots. But normal people, they get smarter. They start avoiding the same mistakes that others made, or they made, you know, in their past. And now, going into Monday's session, you have to start asking yourself where the value is, right? Like, where is the absolute value? Of course, you want to take advantage of the market. The market is ridiculously hot right now. It's been hot now since one, since April, right? Since it was April from a 20% rise from the lows. So the market's been hot. So there's nobody's going to turn around and say, you know what, we just have to start shorting stocks. Eventually they'll come in and we'll be right. No, of course, there's days I turn around and have an opinion. I say, look, I am sell bias for the day, but I'm waiting for confirmation. If I'm wrong that day, I'm wrong that day. If I'm right, I'm right. At least I'm prepared. But I think going forward, and we started talking about this last Thursday, right? Last Thursday that eventually stocks that are really overextended, they're going to be the ones that get hit. And if you look at the market this week, the days that the market pulled, and again, the word pull maybe is very, very subjective. But if you look at, like for example, if you look at Amazon, and you look at the 60 minute view on Amazon, throughout the week, just kind of throughout the week, not kind of where it wound up. But if you look throughout the week, the biggest polls were for names that had the biggest runs. So if you see this, you know, this is a pull here from 29.55 to 28.70. Again, this is 80.90 points. If you look at the pull here, it's from 30.71 all the way down to 29.90. Again, this is an 80 point pull. Even here, for example, from 31.30 all the way down to 30.70. Again, that's 60.70 points. Netflix, exactly the same thing, right? And again, these are monster, monster runs. But again, if you look throughout the week, you can see how big the polls actually were. And again, from here, for example, 492 to 475. That's big, right? Look at this candle here. 504 all the way down to 491. I mean, you can see these polls. 510 all the way down to 496. And again, any signs of weakness, these are the ones that are getting hit first. So for example, 555 all the way down to 541. My point is when the longer a stock is above its breakout level, you are in orbit. Somebody asked me on Twitter the other day, so since Amazon and Netflix and Tesla, for example, have broken out, where is the next supply? How do you justify the next supply zone? And the first I was chuckling in my said, I said, as God, how am I supposed to know, right? But there's actually an answer to that. Again, when stocks are in orbit, and there's an exorbitant amount of speculation money and the new trader's FOMO is at all time highs, there is no rationale behind how high the stocks are going. I'll show you, I'll actually tell you a very, very funny story on Tesla for Friday. But the way to combat any type of possible aggressive reversal is try to avoid, especially on the swing side, try to avoid the names that have broken out two, three, four weeks ago. Those would be the ones that instantaneously you're going to lose $7, $8, especially if you're trading on the equity side. At least max pain you already know from the option side. But the further away a stock is away from its breakout point, the more aggressive the pull, the more aggressive gravity is. For example, I want to show you guys a couple of examples here. I want to show you guys a couple of examples here. Netflix broke out here. I'm sorry, I don't know what the hell is going on here. Netflix broke out above here. You're talking about 474. The breakout was not here and here and here and here. The stock broke out at 474. The stock right now is at 550. You're talking about literally 70, 80 points above the breakout level. Compared to a stock, for example, like Roku, that broke out this week above this 136 area. If you guys remember when Roku broke out this week, that was when they pulled the market that first day. That's when Amazon went down like 70, 80 points and Netflix went down like 26 points. This is in a matter of minutes. Roku was sitting within a dollar range just because the stock was at a technical area. The further away a stock is in a market that's gone linear, those are the names that are going to get pulled first. So even if you are wrong on your entry on a stock that is just about to break out or broken out literally at the point of the pull, there's going to be the benefit of the doubt from the technical point of view from buyers and sellers because they at least acknowledge that a stock like Roku, for example, I forget about this whole move here and this was a fantastic trade this whole week, but at least they recognize there's a technical area that needs to be observed here instead of an area that people are fighting 25, 30, 40 points higher. It's a very, very important part of our lives right now because everything, literally everything is in orbit. You look at Zoom, it's in orbit. You look at Tesla, it's beyond orbit. I think now Elon Musk as a Friday has a higher net worth of Warren Buffett. This is like in five days. Tesla is in orbit. Amazon deserves to be in orbit, right? But again, the stock has gone literally just in the last couple of weeks from 2600 to 30, you're talking about a 600 point move. Again, Tesla looks at that and says, hold my beer, but again, it's a whole different story. But my point is, look at these stocks are just really, really going nuts. Amazon, Netflix, Netflix has gone insane, just absolutely insane. So our job right now is traders. Again, we want to take advantage and still continue to take advantage of the hot market and you definitely want to press the foot on the gas, continue to press the foot on the gas, but at some point you have to turn around and say, look, I have to leave Netflix alone. At least on the front side. I have to leave Amazon alone. I have to leave Tesla alone. I traded Tesla maybe twice this week or three times, excuse me. I traded it twice to the long side, excuse me, twice to the short side and once to the long side. And I did okay with it, but the point is the value on Tesla is gone. It's absolutely gone. This is beyond even to the point of comprehension of what the stock is doing. Again, if you're catching moves on these things, that's great, but again, the value. We're only talking about the value from the safety point and the value point, that is gone. Netflix is gone, Amazon is gone, again, Zoom, you can catch some moves here and there. But the point is right now, you have to really work harder to really try to capture the same type of alpha and still try to avoid the musical chair game. Because again, I think everybody acknowledges eventually this is going to stop and eventually, talk about value, eventually all these stocks that have these massive, massive moves, the next tier of value on Amazon, Tesla, on a Netflix, on most of these stocks is going to be the backside. Everybody knows this. Nobody ever acknowledged that the backside would ever even exist during .com. What the hell is the backside? These stocks are going to go up forever until they didn't. So the next value play for the next foreseeable future, and again, we don't know when that foreseeable future is going to be. It's not going to be a one-day event. One rug pull doesn't mean a backside. One rug pull just means one rug pull, and that's not an environment. But again, you have to figure the next value for these stocks are going to be to the downside. If you thought the run-up was big, eventually when the backside stops and the buyers get tired, you'll see very, very quickly. There is a notable volume shrinkage and contraction to the upside and expansion to the downside over and over and over again. You get that rolling top. Eventually, the backside will be a monstrous opportunity. I think, and everybody agrees this, I think the biggest bulls on Wall Street will acknowledge this. David Tepper said three months ago he wouldn't be buying stocks. Look at the market now. This is three months ago. These are the biggest bulls you could possibly find. So the moral of the story is now we have to do our job to try to find the better value for names that either rallied and going through distribution mode or second and third tier stocks that did not rally, or even had a sell-off that are starting to peak their heads up. And again, maybe you might not get the Netflix move. Maybe you won't get the Tesla move. Maybe you won't get the Amazon move. But at least you are putting yourself in a situation to accomplish a couple of things. Number one, you're still participating in the long-bias, aggressive, hot speculation money that continues to hit the market every single day. And from a safety point of view, if you are participating in maybe second and third tier stocks, not second and third tier setups, second and third tier stocks, that maybe you might not get the Tesla move, but you will get a move. And that's the most important part. You will get a move, you'll still participate. And if there is a rug pull, and again I'm always keeping one eye open for a possible aggressive pull. Because again, the market is not going to show and say, hey, it's about to happen. It's just going to do it. You still have the safety in place. And as I always say, you want to always lead with your shield, not your chin. Just a more prudent way, feasible way, adult-like way to kind of navigating the markets. And if you look at the value of last week, and it was a very, very good week. But if you look at the value, my value started coming up from really from Thursday. And I started looking at names. I really stopped looking at Netflix. I started looking at Zoom. Zoom was a beast. Zoom was an absolute beast. I caught moves on both days. Just phenomenal. We actually even talked about on Thursday's video into Friday's session that if Roku opened up red and tested rising support, it was a gift. It was an absolute gift. And I was like, I'm going to move. And obviously everybody saw what happened with Roku. So our job right now is to really start looking at names that maybe we wouldn't trade. And you start looking at names like this. For example, like a space. Not that space is the end-all be-all. Not that this is something that I would be putting on my focal point. But you kind of get the idea of, look, the stock has been going sideways now for like two and a half, three months. We saw a really, really aggressive option flow this week. On the 20s, the 22s, the 24 dollar calls. And again, this is a great point that I'm trying to illustrate going into this week. This was a value play. It broke above the 17 area. Closed above its first supply. Put an initial high of 20. And now it's starting to build the base above its initial supply zone that it finally took out. So again, if it starts confirming the channel, again, maybe you don't have a move to 44. Maybe you do. I don't know. In this crazy market, maybe you do. But at least you have all the recipe for success. You have a stock that reclaims supply. You have aggressive option flow. And again, if you've been watching, especially the beta market, you see what happens when there's aggressive option flow. We're watching three weeks of option flow in Amazon. Two, 300 points out of the money. And then it went. We started watching two, three weeks of Tesla aggressive option flow out of the money. And then it really, really went. And that's the formula. Even last week I had a swing on NET that I finally closed off. It was a Monday or Tuesday. Big option flow. I started buying this thing under 36. You had big option flow. They were coming for the 40, 41, 42s. And finally, four or five days later, again, I sold my last runner at 39, which was fine. Obviously the stock went high. But again, it's the same recipe for success. So you start to start looking at names like maybe space, right? Maybe consolidation finally takes out the top of the channel. Maybe it gives you a three, four day run. You start maybe looking at names like maybe not, you know, maybe not a name like NVIDIA that had a really, really long run, but you start maybe looking at the step sister, maybe start looking at maximum, right? Weekly view on maximum. If maximum starts taking off again, are you going to get the 12, 15, 20, 30, 80 point move on in the video? No, but you still might get two, three, four, five dollars a share. Again, raise your hand if you're going to deny yourself a two, three, four dollars. Again, me either. You know, maybe some speculation names that I found this weekend. Maybe a name like NETE, right? Maybe NETE. You can see this is the weekly view how close it is from breaking out. Maybe a name like RVLV. Again, maybe these names I'm not really, you know, comfortable with. Maybe these are not my prime watches. But again, you can see that these, at least these stocks are trying to come out of a channel, a downward channel. You're getting good money flow. You're getting higher lows. You're starting to look at weekly distribution where they could confirm. And again, that's where the value is. Again, from maybe the beta side, you know, Boeing got absolutely destroyed this week despite really, really aggressive option flow to the upside. The 190s, 195s, 200s, they all expired worthless. Again, the stock got really, really hit. I know a lot of guys did very, very well to the short side. But now it's kind of waking up a little bit, right? And you see this whole channel here. And again, maybe it gets there and confirms, maybe it doesn't. But at least I would rather take my shots on Boeing above this channel here for a possible move to here than by Tesla. And again, you could joke around here, it's going to 2000 on Monday. Maybe it goes to 3000 on Monday, right? But I'd rather take my shot coming back from a bottom range with $7, $8, $9 of upside potential, measured potential than by, you know, Tesla that's, you know, 550 points away from the 1020 breakout from, you know, six days ago. It's just, you know, again, gravity is the most aggressive thing you could possibly be faced with and obviously stupidity and FOMO as well. And oh, by the way, 3000 other things that traders go through. But again, at some point you have to use common sense, you know, maybe start looking at names that had big runs of beta names and just kind of, you know, kind of resting, you know, maybe a shop, right? You know, maybe a shop that's distributing for now five, six days, maybe a name like Facebook that again, maybe hasn't gone to orbit is going through distribution now for four or five days. So there's definitely still things there. Okay, there's absolutely things there that you could definitely take advantage of. But you have to kind of, you know, turn off that FOMO, okay? Even a name, you know, to the downside, you know, like a workhorse, right? That had this big, big run here. You can see it stopped here perfectly, double bottom here. Again, you look at the week and you say to yourself, well, if it takes out this double bottom, well, why can't it go to 11, right? Again, it's, again, it's gravity. Again, this is my point. You know, workhorse broke out here, okay? It didn't break out here or here or here. This is FOMO. This is like what the rest of the market is resembling now. So now, again, here's a perfect example of somebody who bought the stock at 23. And now it's at 14 and you turn around and say, well, the stock is going to come back. Well, why? Why do you think it's going to come back? Are you trying to convince me? It's going to come back. Are you trying to convince yourself? The moral of the story is gravity is real. And the last thing you want to do is keep pushing on the stocks that are in orbit. And there's, you know, your safety net is not here. Your safety net is here, here and here and here. So the further a stock is from its macro breakout levels, the higher probability that is going to be the one that's going to crash first. So the value this week is, of course, I'm still giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt. I'm just going to be a lot more prudent with the names that I am watching for the stocks that had really, really aggressive moves, the high fliers. Again, the value, at least for me going into this week, is to the downside. Okay, I'm not saying that they're going to go down. I'm just saying for me that I'm going to wait patiently for confirmation to the downside because that is your highest probability of an average true range expansion because think about it, if Tesla ran up 5,600 points and it starts cracking on a 60 minute interval, why can't it go down 100 points of the day? Right? So again, that's where my value is, but obviously I will be looking for more value plays to the upside. Funny story on Tesla. Really, really funny story on Tesla. So I had a really good week. Friday I caught Roku very well. We'll talk about we'll talk about the individual pivots in a second. So we knew this 1429 level was kind of going to be a big deal. We knew at least going forward and I said to myself, when this thing finally takes out that 429 and we're still literally in this euphoric state of mind, Tesla is going to run again. And I went downstairs to lunch and I was watching the stock and it started to waking up. 1422 1423 1424. The night before we ordered food from one of my favorite Italian restaurants. And we ordered a pie regular cheese pizza and then I ordered some heroes. I ordered a meatball parm. I ordered a chicken parm. I know I'm a fat kid. So I was very, very excited. So I went down to lunch. I was exhausted. I did what I had to do for the week and I'm sitting there and I'm watching Tesla and I go to myself, well, I know how big this 430 is. It's 1425. Maybe you should go upstairs, Dan. Go upstairs. Take the Tesla trade. Go upstairs. And then I realized my meatball parmesan hero was being heated up. So I said to myself, Tesla 430, meatball parm. Tesla 430, meatball parm. Yada, yada, yada. It was a hell of a sandwich. I'm a fat kid. There's definitely priorities in life. And oh, by the way, all Tesla did was put up $120 candle. So the moral of the story is I'm fat. Tesla's still damn good. But boy, oh boy, that meatball parm was a hell of a sandwich. So I know a lot of you guys caught this trade. Unfortunately, it was not one of them. But again, priorities in life. So let's talk about Friday's session. You know, very, very aggressive session as well. Just again, a good market. I mean, a really, really good market here. I actually talked about this in the video the prior night. The value right now isn't in the stocks that have made huge moves recently, like in Amazon, the video, Netflix and so. It's in the other names. So we have to watch. And again, we talked about the previous night. We discussed the value is the concept, subjective technical analysis and rise to support. So I talked about Friday night into Thursday into Friday session. Again, any open week open on Roku is going to be an absolute gift. Red to green, this thing is going to explode. That's exactly what Roku did. We talked about this right here. Red to green on watch. Note this is not a pivot. 150 needs to confirm. I got long to 150. And this thing just absolutely went just one nuts. Here was Roku. Here's Roku. Here's the 150. And just one nuts. Put up a $9 candle on top of the 136 break that I got long on excuse me. I bought it. I missed the 136. I got long 137 on a second entry the day before that had a monster monster move as well. And when I'm starting to really, really love about Roku is it's almost at the stages of how Netflix and Tesla were the combination. It's almost like a hybrid. The combination of speed and power and it's very, very few names that are like that. But this is definitely what I mean. Speed by empowers average to range expansion with massive liquidity. So I really, really love that as well. AMD had a lot of coal buying the previous day. And again, this is where we talk about guys. This is where you have to eliminate your FOMO second entries. You have to use second entry. So AMD breaks of 58 goes to like 5815. It puts an initial high. You have to let it retrace and then take out the initial highs. That's what the second entry is. You cannot have FOMO the stock is not going to go from 58 to 75. This is not Tesla. Okay, so you have to have you have to have the ability to sit on your hands and wait for that second confirmation that second entry that's the whole point of the PS 60 theory. The first move on the previous pivot is just an area that those are stops being triggered. You have to have the responsible foresight to wait for that second entry. Let it take out the pivot. Let it put in a new high. Let it retrace. And once it goes to that new high, that is the second entry. That's the name of the game. Roku wrote excuse me space. I really liked space. I know a lot of you guys bought the dip on space into rising 60 minutes support. It failed again at the $20 level. This is a big spot for space going forward. So definitely keep an eye on that shop. Obviously never got there. And again, this is where we started talking about here. You know Tesla 1410 needs to build. And obviously I mean Tesla stopped. Initially it stopped at the 1417 level. Okay, so went from 1410 to 1417. But that's what once it got above the 429. This is with the big macro level. Really obviously see what really happened there. Amazon 3200 needs to build again experienced traders only the reason why again I say that is because these stocks have been incredibly strong. They could get pulled at any time. So it took out 3200 and right to supply here at $3215. Again, raise your hand $15 is a bad move. Right. So that was that as well. Roku again, a perfect move as well. Boeing to the upside. This is a nice move to the upside. And this is where I think the first part of this is where the first part of the reversal has happened in Boeing. 175-20 needs to build for a spike. So here is Boeing, right? So here is the 175-20. It went right to supply here in this 176 and change area. What I like about it, what I'm seeing is it didn't go down. It didn't go down after it hit supply. It's just kind of going sideways. That's why I kind of like Boeing this week. Especially if it starts taking out the 60-minute supply. So a nice looking setup for Monday as well. And this is kind of my first point. 1410 it's stalling out around. I said at 1417 it's stalling out here. Take some off. This is a big area here. Once obviously reclaimed 17. That's when the stock really took off. Boeing again take on the way on. Second entries are amazing. If you guys remember Boeing, it took out 75-20. And this is what I mean by second entries. It took out 75-20. Put it in a new high. Put a new high of 75-50. Retraced. And once it got right back through the 75-50 second entry, that's when the stock really, really exploded. So again, you have to work on you have to work on the ability to staying disciplined and waiting for the second entries. The FOMO is not going to do anything to you just until your account gets destroyed. You're really going to need to understand that. So more of the story is guys, very, very good trading action continues. I'm definitely bullish a lot of names. Okay. But again, not the typical names that I trade every single week. Of course I'll be trading these stocks. I think it's much more important to kind of wait for the back side to begin. Other names again, the Facebooks, the Google's, the shops, Roku I still like. Those are the names you still have value. Okay. And everything else you have to kind of just wait for a good solid confirmation. Guys, have a blessed week. If you are joining us this week via the live webinar or on the Twitter feed please arrive at morning strategy at 9 o'clock Eastern time and with God's help have an awesome, awesome Sunday. And I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care, guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS 60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.