 Recently, Indian Air Force asked Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to not go ahead with upgradation of its Jaguar fleet. One of the reasons cited was that the price that the US company Honeywell was asking for their engines was exorbitant. Between 2013 and 2019, the unit price had doubled. This means that Indian Air Force's squadron strength, which was 31, will further come down and there is fear that it will be 29 squadrons, which is far below the 42 squadrons that the Indian Air Force claimed that it required to meet two war scenario. We have with us D. Raghunandan of Delhi Science Forum, who is also a defence analyst with NewsClick to take us through some of the issues that come up now in the wake of Indian Air Force's decision to discontinue with Jaguar upgradation. Welcome to NewsClick, Raghunandan. My first question to you is, now that our squadron strength is slated to fall even below 31, where does it leave the Indian Air Force in terms of meeting its requirement and what should it do? This is no surprise either to the Indian Air Force or to the government. The Air Force has been talking about this and if you read government documents including in the procurement process, the defence planning process, the expected depletion of strength of the IAF fleet has been known for more than 15 years because everyone knew the MiG was reaching the end of its life. Everyone knows that the Jaguar also is reaching the end of its life and the upgrade of the Jaguars being spoken about now with new engines from Honeywell and so on is really a desperate attempt to extend the shelf life of what is really an aircraft which is done and dusted. The IAF is virtually the only Air Force left in the world which is still operating Jaguars. We are buying old used Jaguars from other countries just to cannibalise those aircraft and use it to keep your aircraft afloat and the reason you are doing that and the reason you continue to fly MiG 21s after several upgrades is because your numbers are down to such a low figure. This should have been anticipated a long time ago. It was anticipated but the necessary actions to overcome the situation were not taken. For the usual reasons our procurement processes are so tied up in red tape, in bureaucratism, in delays, etc., that you are left now holding the baby of this problem and the fact of the obsolescence of the MiGs and the Jaguars were brought clear even during the clashes we had across the LOC with Pakistan when with all the aircraft at your disposal IAF was still sending MiGs across the border, one or two of which were shot down there. There was no sign of the Jaguars to be used in those roles. The Sukhoi's were not used because there is no forward basis for the aircraft. So I am afraid this is a sad story of lack of preparedness both by the air force and by the government. You are referring to what Indian Air Force did in Kargil? In Kargil, using the Mirages the way we did, using the MiG 29s the way we did which has not been done before to provide cover for the Mirages and so on. If we are not going for up gradation and as you pointed out that there are also limits beyond which you cannot carry on with up gradation, that is no solution, it is just a stop gap measure. Now Indian Air Force had been keen on acquiring, I mean they were alert and they sounded the alarm way back in 2001 and they pitched the claim for getting 126 medium range fighter jets. So as far as Indian Air Force is concerned it was very clear and it pitched the claim and it brought it before the political authority. But the delay subsequently resulted in cutting down the order size from 126 to 36. Now we know the whole scam about Rafale and all although it is not, nobody talks about it now. But there were many unanswered questions which had to do with Rafale. Now with 36 acquisitions of Rafale and the first delivery is expected next month and there is talk in the newspapers and the media that there is likelihood of government of India going in for another 36th, two questions come to mind, one is, is that sufficient? Does it serve India's, it may serve India's immediate need, but does it help in the long term need where we have to build up our indigenous capability in handling? And second question which flows out of it, Raghu is also, are there any options? Because today's newspaper's report and Hindus say, claims that Russians are willing to offer their SU-57 superposition to India, which as you pointed out earlier to me before the interview that in fact this was precisely both India and Russia was supposed to jointly produce. So let me take these two questions separately. First on the Rafale, the Rafale is a deep penetration strike aircraft, although it's described as a multi-role aircraft, it can perform multi-rolls, but the Indian Air Force was really envisaging for deep penetration strike roles, which is a role which the Jaguar was originally acquired for and this is a much advanced version of that naturally, being a contemporary aircraft. It will also in many ways replace the roles that the Mirage were fulfilling and the Mirage also is going to near its end of life in the next decade or so. Therefore, the IAF had called for 126 Rafales, which could then play these overlapping roles between the Jaguar and the Mirage aircraft. Of deep strike as well as the possibility of its use in multi-role aircraft, including air superiority. Now, with the reduction of 126 to 36, which as you know we've conducted many of these interviews earlier on the Rafale deal, I've always described as a penny wise and pound foolish measure. You thought you were saving money by buying 36, but now you realize you need the 126 aircraft. It is not for nothing that the Air Force had projected that. And they're still insisting on acquiring 114 more. And they're still acquiring, but that's going to be another five years down the line. And the procurement process. And if you are changing the specifications for the 114 compared to the 126 that you wanted earlier, does it mean that you are satisfied with just two squadrons of deep penetration strike aircraft, which are going to replace even now, what you have is more than twice the quantity of Jaguars that you do. Clearly, this is very bad planning, which the government for its own reasons cut short the order and bought only 36 Rafales, did not also exercise an option, which is normally there in any contract. You also, when you acquire an aircraft, you say we'll get some additional ones and retain an option for that. Indian government did not do that either. And now is again going in for another 36, which is going to cost more money. And if you buy two lots of 36, and that comes to 72, the day may not be far when you'll have another lot of 36 being ordered, then you might as well have. Off the shelf. Off the shelf. You've lost the opportunity for technology transfer. You've lost the opportunity for domestic manufacture. And you're still staring at a shortage of... So what about this offer of SU-57? So now let's come to the SU-57 offer. India a few years ago turned down, the discussions were going on between India and Russia for the fifth generation fighter aircraft. It was in those days designated as the PAC-FA aircraft, which having now matured, gone past the development stage is now called the SU-57. The deal that was being talked about then was a joint development between India and Russia, for which India claims that Russia was asking for too much money. And therefore India did not go in for it. My suspicion however also is that the Indian Air Force also in its own wisdom seems to have come to a conclusion sometime back that they had had enough of Soviet Russian hardware and were preferring to go the western route. Now the problem with that is, okay, the western aircraft may be 10% or so better than these. They may have better avionics, but you can always fit in avionics later. After all, if you look at the world today, next to the United States, Russia is the biggest and most powerful air force in the world. They're not playing with toys. They are playing with... They are using advanced aircraft. The Indian Air Force has long projected a requirement of three types of aircraft. Light aircraft for introduction, for introduction, which is what your LCA would perform. Medium aircraft, which is what we were looking for, the Rafales or whatever. And the heavy aircraft, which is what you've got your Sukhoi is already doing. This gap that we had in the medium aircraft is what the fifth generation aircraft would drive. So if you ask me, this has always been the ideal mix, your LCA, your PAC FA and now SU-57 and your Sukhois. With this your entire Air Force fleet is more or less complete. So even now my recommendation would still be to go in for this offer because it would cost you per aircraft 50% of what the best American aircraft would cost you, an F-35 or whatever, which is far too expensive. You'll end up buying very few of those aircraft. It will not fulfill your requirements. End up being a vital offer. End up having 36 Rafales kind of scenario all over again. So this would be a good offer. I think one should take it up. Let me come to your effort to the light combat aircraft that is being developed and manufactured by HAL. Now there is something very peculiar about it. Although our requirement is for 284 stages aircrafts, in pipeline apparently the order book, in pipeline is stock at 83 stages, which is yet to come through the entire order. So we don't know how long it will take before HAL gets it. The second point is that HAL has been pushing for setting up and they were sure that they'll set up another second assembly line to increase the number of aircrafts that they can manufacture. But now there is another move afford to ensure that the second assembly line is passed on to a private player. Now with HAL's own capacity underutilized because Sukhoi is the last batch of 12 aircrafts. The last batch is with them. Once they completed they have no more. So that Sukhoi closes, MiG closes down. Rafaal deal that they were banking on heavily has not come to them. And the only thing which is with them is the helicopter and this light combat aircraft. Now even if the light combat aircraft is the second assembly line is passed on to the private sector. What happens to HAL then in this whole? Again I think this is short sighted thinking on the part of the government in wanting to push for private sector involvement. Not just in component manufacture or major component manufacture but in system integration. While I can accept an argument saying HAL's capacity is limited, if you want a quicker production you need to expand your production base and therefore involve more private players. I would involve more private players in making major components and enhance HAL's ability as a system integrator rather than duplicate the system integration facility between HAL and others. That would be the wrong way to go. Private parties should build up their capacities from large component manufacturing to system integration rather than prematurely being thrust into system integration roles. So I would really go that route. HAL already is working with a large number of private partners. You can enhance the role of these private partners in major component manufacture and enhance the capacity of HAL capacity to integrate the system and push out a larger number of aircraft. By the way, the restricted number of Tejas being ordered right now by the Air Force is because the Tejas also is in the stage of getting ready for an upgraded version with a more powerful engine. So the remaining part of those 200 orders are going to be for the advanced versions of the Tejas which is yet to fructify completely. The second part of it is the lines of HAL which are closing down because of the retirement of the MiGs and the completion of the Sukhoi order are the Koraput Nasik lines which HAL has always kept the Russian part of the manufacturing isolated from the western parts with HAL, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Lucknow, usually doing all the western designed aircraft and Nasik and Koraput handling the Soviet and Russian parts. So it is that part which is currently now running out of steam. I am not sure it is going to be that easy to adapt those facilities to manufacture these aircraft unless you retool entirely. Thank you, Raghu. That is all for this time. But if you have any queries or you have any clarifications that you seek or you have any feedback, do write to us. Thank you for watching NewsClick. Keep watching NewsClick. Thank you.