 Hi there, this is Mike Kramer of Mock Capital. Today is Tuesday, April 9th, and it's around 5.50 New York time. Tomorrow we'll be getting the big US CPI report. Analysts are looking for CPI in March to have risen by 0.3% versus last month's reading of 0.4%. Core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% versus last month's 0.4%. CPI year-over-year expected to rise by 3.4% versus last month's 3.2%. Core CPI is expected to rise by 3.7% versus 3.8% last month. CPI swaps are basically in line with analyst estimates looking for CPI on a year-over-year basis to rise by 3.37%, which rounds to that 3.4 number. They're looking for a 0.32% increase for the month-over-month number, and that rounds down to the 0.3% analysts are looking for. When we start going through the rest of the week, we're also going to be getting FOMC minutes tomorrow afternoon at 2 p.m. New York time. I would expect any minutes not to really reveal too much, but I would think we'd get a little bit of a sense here of what the Fed may be thinking about QT. I also have a feeling that we're going to find out that people are a little bit more around the two-rate cut scenario versus the three, but again, we're going to get more details there. Then on the 11th, we're going to be getting PPI final demand. We're looking for 0.3% month-over-month. That's going to be down from 0.6%. Ex-food and energy, we're looking for 0.2%, down from 0.3%. Ex-food energy and trade, down to 0.2% from 0.4%. Year-over-year, we're looking for 2.2 versus 1.6%. Initial jobless claims are always a big number. We're looking for 215,000 on the initial claims and 1.8 million on the continuing claims, and then we'll finish up Friday with import prices, export prices, and University of Michigan inflation expectations for one year and five to 10 year. Essentially, that's going to finish up a pretty busy week when it comes to where economic data is, and then tomorrow afternoon at 1 o'clock New York time, we'll be getting a 10-year auction and a 30-year auction on the 11th at 1 o'clock as well. We're going to have to pay attention to that 1 o'clock time slot again with bond auctions coming on Wednesday and Thursday of this week. We'll start off with the 10-year rate since that seems to be front and center for tomorrow. You can see that the 10-year rate after the job report made a nice move up above the 435 level. We have come back down at this point, and it looks like we're just retracing, potentially retesting that level. Clearly, the momentum is pointing higher. Clearly, the cup and handle pattern is suggesting they're still higher to go. Additionally, resistance is up around 455 or so, so there's plenty of reason to think that we could continue to see bond yields move higher here. We are at the upper end of the Bollinger Band, but we have backed off just a little bit. Clearly, we're not overbought on the RSI and the Bollinger Band metrics. It's really just going to come down to what CPI is. If the current trend remains in place and the outlook for inflation remains elevated, at least over the next couple of months, which is what it appears to be, then I think you're going to continue to see 10-year rates move higher towards F455 level and potentially beyond that. If we were to get a really big surprise tomorrow, meaning CPI comes in much cooler than expected or cooler than expected, by even a tenth, I think you could probably see the risk of the 10-year rate moving back down to 415 or so. It's really the same thing for the two-year. You can see the two-year broke out on Friday following the hot job report number. We basically come back to resistance right now at 475. Again, it looks like we have this giant cup and handle pattern in place with this ascending triangle. Clearly, momentum favors the upside here, and this pattern and this scenario kind of points out this idea that we could get a two-year rate moving back up towards that 5% level. Certainly, if the market starts pricing out Fed cuts and Fed rate cuts go from 3 to 2 to 1, it certainly begins to make sense to see a two-year rate moving up towards that 5% level. This is going to be a big job report. Again, a cooler number, a miss for some reason, probably sends the two year back to this 450 area. When we swing over to the currency market, because obviously this will be impacted, the euro looked like it was breaking down last week, and now it looks like we're moving back up towards the other end, which really makes us wonder whether or not we have this pattern correct at this point. Clearly, if we're in some sort of deeper pattern where we could see the euro return back to parity, again, you're going to need some sort of economic data from the US to continue to suggest that prices aren't really coming down, and this disinflation path that the market thought we were on is not really the case anymore. For that to happen, it's going to probably take a hotter CPI. It may take PPI and import export prices to also be elevated. But again, at this point, you can begin to make a case that maybe momentum in the euro has started to increase to the upside, but it's a very difficult case, I think, to make at this point, just because we have this low here on the RSI at 33.25, and we have this secondary low here at 35.5, so you have this higher low on the RSI. You also have a higher low on the price, but there still seems to be a very well-entrenched downtrend. At the minimum, you have one from here to here, and you have another one that goes all the way back. Right now, the onus is sort of on the bulls to drive the euro higher at this point. It still appears to me that the trend and the economic fundamental backdrop seems to still favor the euro dropping lower, potentially getting back to this 107 area here, and potentially something bigger than that. But again, it's going to depend a lot on the CPI report, and of course, on Thursday, we're also going to be getting an ECB rate announcement decision. And certainly, if the ECB sort of backs away from what it's thinking about in terms of the path of rate cuts, that could certainly throw a monkey wrench into things as well, because as of right now, market's not expecting to see anything on the 11th, but the market is expecting about a 91% chance of a rate cut at June. And at least maybe with the potential of up to almost four rate cuts by the end of the year. So right now, the market will be paying very close attention to what really goes on here. If the ECB sounds more dovish on Thursday, that's going to also play a major factor here. And at least to this point, it seems like the ECB is probably going to be cutting faster than the Fed. It may even end up cutting more than the Fed this year, at least based off of some of the data we're seeing and inflation rates in Europe. So there's certainly the case here that you could see the euro really continue to move lower here. And with that, you could probably expect a German two years even to potentially move lower. Again, the German two year has a look to what the US two year looks like with the potential cup and handle pattern. So again, we're going to want to pay close attention. Markets obviously move with one another. So if we're going to continue to see US rates move up in the two year here, it's potentially that we're going to see the German two year move up. But again, it's going to come down to the spreads because if you look at the spread between the US 10 and the German 10, you can see that we're clearly seeing some widening take place. And that's also what ultimately is going to drive potentially the dollar against the euro, potentially moving the euro back down lower towards parity over time. When we swing over to the pound, pretty much just a sideways price action here. From a fundamental standpoint, again, one would think that the dollar would be favored here, but we're not really seeing anything at this point to suggest otherwise. If we were to break down this pattern and just take a little bit of a deeper dive look at it, you can certainly start making a case that it looks like there's some we're just in this sort of trading range here with some consolidation off of this low off of this move lower that we've seen more recently. That could certainly be pointing to further downside risks here in the in the pound. And obviously a stronger dollar. But again, there's really not really a clear direction in the pound at this point with resistance being at 127 and support being at 125. We've really been in this holding pattern in the pound for some time. Again, you could make a case and an argument, though, that we're seeing basically what looks like maybe some sort of consolidation sideways distribution pattern. And so we'll just have to keep a close eye on this with really not much conclusive evidence either way. And then of course, we have the yen, which has really just been kind of in a holding pattern now. Again, seems to me like a hotter CPI in the US likely to send the yen higher here. It looks like this is one giant sort of consolidation, ascending triangle pattern that's formed in the end of late. The one thing that's sort of concerning here from a yen moving higher standpoint is that suddenly you've started to see the RSI diverge a little bit lower. But again, nothing meaningful at this point. Certainly, when we look at the end, there's certainly room to go up to around 153 without running into any Bollinger bands. But that doesn't mean you won't run into intervention from the Ministry of Finance or the BOJ in the process. So that's the big risk. And that's why you've really seen the yen be careful here. I think it comes down to again, these spreads, because at least if the spreads are widening, you can make a case that maybe the fundamental support the yen weakening further versus the dollar. But again, you're going to need 10 year rates here in the US to really start moving higher for that to happen. When we swing over to some of the markets around the world, when we look at the DAX, that's been coming under pressure the last couple of days down about another 1.3% today. Certainly, this is a little bit of an outlier here. We have been seeing weakness in the US markets. We have been seeing a little bit of weakness in the Nikkei. But the weakness in the DAX seems a little bit more than what we've seen in the US. And more notably, we close, you can see below this 20-day moving average and we're down below the 10-day exponential moving average. The 10-day was really serving as support. And once we really broke below that today, that seems a little more decisive. The 20-day was also offering support. And that may be telling us that if we don't quickly recover these moving averages on the 20-day, we could be looking at a little bit of a deeper move here down to around 17,730, which would be the lower Bollinger Band. And of course, you can see there's also some horizontal support in this level. When we look at the FTSE, the FTSE has moved higher more recently. We're coming back up to the upper end of the range that we've been in now for some time. So the question really is, does the FTSE have further to go at this point? Again, it looks like we broke out really nicely here. And we're just doing some consolidation at this point. I think that, again, you want to use your 10-day exponential moving average as sort of an indicator of whether or not we can continue to move higher from here. Overall, it looks like this is serving as a nice level of support for the FTSE. But again, you can also see there's some resistance in this region with the next meaningful level of resistance up here at around 8,040. So that's something to watch for. When we swing over to the U.S., NASDAQ Composite today had a pretty wild session. We actually closed above the 10-day exponential moving average for the first time since last week. So that could be seen as a positive sign. Again, you're going to want to see this sort of build and develop and move higher from here. You could certainly make a case that there's a downtrend here. It almost looked like there was a diamond reversal pattern forming. And we did break it, and then we were able to snap back and close above it today. The first time we were able to close above this trend line basically since Wednesday of last week. So at this point, you could maybe make a case that we could see the NASDAQ rise to around 18,300 or so in the coming couple of days. Because again, we haven't really recovered this loss that we had late last week. And so that would be where I would expect resistance to be up in this area at this point. Meanwhile, we have to continue to watch to see if we break this level down here. Because again, we still have this megaphone pattern in there. It hasn't been invalidated yet. And until that happens, we still have to be respectful of it. And that level of support comes at 17,840. When we look at the Dow, the Dow has also been weak the last few days. We can see here the Dow is actually lower on the day. It didn't recover, although it closed off of the lows. We can see the Dow clearly trading below the 10-day exponential moving average. Also trading below the 20-day moving average, much closer to its lower Bollinger Band here at 38,500 or so. Clearly, momentum has slid and diverged from the Dow here pointing lower, significantly lower actually, while you can see the the Dow has been kind of grinding higher here. So, clear loss of momentum, which is sort of obvious, I guess, when you just look at the changes in trade rate of change at this point and this point. But also more importantly, you know, you can see that we're also at this level of support right in this area here. So, as of right now, we're sort of bouncing around that level. If we were to gap below this tomorrow for some reason, let's say in a hotter CPI at 830 at 38,650, it probably opens the door to a path back to 37,150 while we still have a gap up here to be filled at 39,550. And finally, the SPX also looked like it was starting to show signs of breaking down. Certainly had a nice consolidation going here. That sort of all went out the window in the final hour of trading or so today. But even with this move higher, the S&P couldn't manage to close above any of these other prior highs. So, that's really not giving us much confidence yet. When we look at it from a standpoint of where we are on the exponential moving averages in 20 days, you can see we're just kind of hugging those numbers now the last couple of days and the two are converging here. So, we're going to want to see sort of if we get any more clues tomorrow. Clearly upside resistance somewhere around 5,275, downside support somewhere around 51,25 or so. Anyway, I hope this helps you and have a great rest of your week. See you next. Bye.