 What's up navigation traders welcome to this week's video update today's Friday, November 15th Welcome to this exclusive video for pro members. We're gonna talk about who got caught being hot in the community this week We're gonna talk about all the alerts We're gonna talk about our current positions We're gonna I want to discuss Trading iron ducks in a low implied volatility environment been some discussion About iron ducks in the community this week, so I want to address some of that Looking at the earnings next week and then just what's going on in the market. All right, let's jump in Who got caught being hot this week? This week goes to a Member who's been around been around in the community for quite a while and just consistently adding value consistently posting suggestions He's he's one of our Canadian members so really helpful in helping those who have specific questions that are relative to to If you live in Canada, so Congrats Gerald paying Appreciate all your contributions. Keep up the good work. You got caught being hot All right, let's jump into the alerts for the week starting with Monday The 11th so our first trade was a rolling adjusting trade in natty gas So we had already rolled one of our sets of short strangles We had one left It was down to 14 days to expiration which we typically like to start looking at potentially rolling those around 21 days But it was just sucking out the premium. So just kind of let it sit for an extra few days But we just rolled that from December with 14 days and rolled that out to January with 45 Kept the strikes exactly the same so now we're holding both sets out in that same cycle so let's go to natty gas and Man what a ride this nat gas has been I mean just huge swings But it keeps coming right back to center for us. So it's been good on our front So here's where we're at Here's we share the three put on the strike for both of these and we've got the 2.3 Call and 2.35 calls of pretty close to being the same thing They're both inverted you can see prices hanging out right here So since we've rolled both of these made up an additional almost 750 bucks And still just working our way back after that massive move that we had when we initiated this position So working our way back nicely in natty gas Next trade opening trade in forge slash 6b the British pound implied volatility continues to stay high So we wanted to sell some premium to take advantage of that. So here's 6b Pretty close to where we put it on not much movement at this point, you know implied volatility is Continuing to stay high because of the the whole Brexit thing some new new stuff coming out about that and potential Potential closure to that it sounds like But whatever it is it's giving us the chance to sell some premium with that high implied volatility So that is all we care about my friends So that's where we're at on 6b Next trade rolling adjusting trade and QQQ so we rolled one set of our short call verticals in the cues Just adjusted our strikes to accommodate that get back into a positive theta position We've continued to roll these just to keep that short delta exposure in our portfolio So if we look at those here's both of them kind of put together, but you can see prices just inside of our range and Man this this market has just been incredibly incredibly strong And so and we've discussed this a little bit the last couple weeks and in the community and that is I mean You know we we always talk about carrying short delta When you get a massive rip higher like this in stocks Just continues to hit new all-time highs That short delta hurts But you know the fact is that we are able to carry this short delta and we're still we've still been profitable through this up move You know that said that says a lot now are we as profitable had we been long or not had that short delta? No, absolutely not but hey You can't you can't trade in hindsight And so we will continue to carry a little bit of short delta to help protect from those downside moves And it will come You know when I mean when you go through something like this it seems like it's never going to go down again I mean we we haven't seen a downtick In a month and a half In stocks, but it'll happen and just you know stay mechanical stick with the program And to give you an idea of where we're at on our short delta versus theta Is um The short so we're about two a little over two to one on our short delta beta weighted to spy on our Short delta versus our theta So we're in a good position We'd like to have a kind of a range of anywhere from one to one to five to one And you know any when you get a big move like this a lot of times It's easy to get overly short And we've done a really good job in our portfolio of not getting too short Part of that is the implementation of the iron ducks and utilizing that strategy In you know mixing in our portfolio And then the other is just kind of you know tweaking and managing and you know rolling cuts down on delta and all the different things that we teach So we've done a good job of not letting that Short delta get out of hand and and it you know we're a little over two to one on our ratio So we're in really good shape And in a good position to you know take a little bit of a of a pullback of a downside If or I should say when it does happen Next trade was an opening trade in amazon. So we put on an iron duck in amazon Did this one with 11 days to expiration and so we're still in that prices come down Since we put that on amazon You can see prices has come down some since we put this on So you can see prices just starting to enter our duckhead I had I had a question from one of our newer members In the community saying you know, we've we've been in this we've only got until next week You know today is friday. So this expires next friday the 22nd We've only you know, it's it's in the duckhead area. Why are we not showing barely any profit? And the reason is is because and the reason that we put these on with such short time frames such short duration Instead of that typical 30 to 60 days is because the way that this is positioned the way these options are priced and the way this is skewed Uh, a lot of this profit doesn't come in until the last few days And so that's why we you know, we we don't want to be sitting in these for 30 or 60 days So we that's why we kind of position these between that one and 21 days to expiration So we can just hold them for a shorter period of time because a lot of that profit will start to come in In the uh in the last few days If you're if you're in toss, you know, one of the things you can do and I think tasty works has this feature too But their analyze tab is is definitely not what tosses is Uh, but you know today's the 15th So if you take this through time and just tick, you know tomorrow the next day the next day You can see how that p&l line moves as you get closer and closer to expiration And you know, this is this is you know, the last day and you can still see there's some some some meat in there As far as option premium and then obviously uh after expiration it it follows the teal line, but Anyway, that's that's how that works with these iron ducks Uh, let's see. Let's go to our next trade Opening trade in tesla. So we did another iron duck in tesla. Uh tesla has actually moved higher since we put this on Tesla has been on a real tear Um, and so here's what that looks like We're up well within our duck beak in tesla Um, you know some some i've noticed a lot of some not a lot, but some of the members You know, it gets into the beak and you're actually uh, you know, your p&l line is above that beak They're just taking it off and booking that profit And hey, if that that's kind of what your trading plan is great Um for us, we like to leave these on i'm gonna set my price slides to break even here Um, we like to and this is 1123 make sure I got my calendar correct You know, we've still got what I like to do is I I like to bring that price slice over to just as it would enter the You know outside the duck beak into the head You know, we've still got a 27 probability That price could go down here between now and expiration, you know So we're going to keep this on if we get down to a point where we have less than a 10 chance That price can get into that duck head then we're just going to close it out and book that beak profit But we're going to go ahead and hold on to this one for now. This one just like amazon expires next friday So we've got a week left. So we will see what happens Uh speaking of I want to point out to big willy in our community who's Always, uh engaged always always contributing He uh, he sent out a uh, a notice that he found a reverse iron duck In tesla and i'm going to bring it up right here because I think it was a great great find You you don't typically find reverse iron ducks in equities Because usually the puts trade richer than the calls but in the case of tesla the calls are currently trading richer than the puts and so big uh, big willy brought it out that uh, he found a potential reverse iron duck and Uh, it was a good one. So I I put on something similar Um, let me put it on in my other account, but let me pull up what I actually put on And um, so even even in the next week, you might be able to find something similar or hopefully you saw his post in the community Uh, but here's what I put on I put on the short 367 half Puts long 365 puts and then the short 385 call uh long 400 call So it looks like this. So if we bring our price slice over to break even here and this was out in the, uh Uh, december 7th is the expiration here. So if I change my calendar here To december 7th, oops a little too far there december 7 So you can see a little over 80 per 86 probability of profit In this case with the reverse we have no risk to the downside And we'll take this off if price gets up to here up to our, you know, our break even or, you know, close to What equivalent uh is of our of our max profit. So Good fine big willy nice work. I love all the duck hunting going on. It's good stuff. Um, all right next trade By the way, if you want to learn more about that reverse iron duck, we talk about that in part three of the iron duck course So you can check that out Next trade opening trade in ewz Uh ewz had a real nice spike in implied volatility and so we put on a short strangle in ewz Uh, if we take a look at where we're at now, we've got about 70 bucks 75 bucks in profit since we put this on Uh, but just holding waiting for some more time to pass waiting for some more theta to decay We got in here when implied volatility popped up and then now it's contracted nicely. So, uh, we'll the We'll see what happens in ewz Next trade rolling adjusting trade in es. So this is our long put vertical that we're holding for that short delta exposure Um, this one was basically all the way out of range And so we just held it all the way down to one days to expiration because you can't get assigned on futures So we were just holding it just in case we did get a snap back to the downside But it didn't happen. So we went ahead and rolled this out to extend duration keep that short delta exposure Rolled it out to 36 days to expiration So if we take a look at es Again, just like everything else in the equity markets for the most part have been strong Uh, but here we are, you know, so prices moved up a little bit since we put this on but we're still in range Just holding this for some downside potential downside in stocks Next trade closing trade in rut. So we had a weekly double calendar on in rut And uh, we're down to the last trading day And we're hoping for a little bit of an uptick in rut, but unfortunately You know everything's going up except rut didn't go up on the day that we wanted it to but anyway We booked a small profit on that trade And so we were out of that Next trade opening trade in spx. So we added another iron duck in spx did this one with 21 days to expiration So let's take a look at spx. We've now got two iron ducks in spx This is the one that we already had on You can see price has moved all the way up here In our beak. So if we kind of like I was talking about before if we move this To the uh, to this point here. So right where the beak ends and the snout of the duck starts Um, you know, you can see we still got about a 20 probability that price could get back in there. So in the next week if price continues higher and uh, And we get down to about a 10 or less chance of price getting back to the duck head We'll just go ahead and book that beak profit, which is in this case 110 bucks Better than the sharp stick in the eye And then the one from the alert that I just mentioned the new one that we just put on pretty close to where we put it on Uh, we've got a this one is out 12 seven. So 21 days to expiration Oops wrong date December 7th Uh, you can see we've got 89 probability of profit. So just holding on to this one We'll hold this one close to uh, close to expiration. So just laddering these in Um, let's see next trade. Oh, the other thing I was going to mention On iron ducks I've mentioned this before but with implied volatility as low as it is I mean, look at this ivy percentile of one ivy rank of one in spx So whenever this happens, that's why we're going out so far in time to that upper end of the Range of where we like to put these on, you know, this one has 21 days to expiration Which is kind of at the far end of where we like to do this and that's what you have to do when um, when implied volatility gets so low Because otherwise, you know, you'll have a problem not getting not being able to get that no risk to the upside Not being able to get that a decent beak profit Because implied volatility is so low if implied volatility or when implied volatility spikes You'll start seeing us put these on with Even as low as one day to expiration or three days to expiration and that's when that's when the duck hunting gets really fun Get that implied volatility you get a bigger credit you get further away from price on your downside And you can get shorter duration trades But for now with implied volatility so low we we're still able to put these on we just have to ladder them out longer duration and then And then, you know, you might have to adjust your your strikes a little bit off of what we what we initiate In the course, which is you know selling the 65 delta call and then buying one strike higher Selling the 15 delta put and buying the 10 you might you just have to tweak those one strike here one strike there To make it set up so you have that no risk to the upside a decent credit And you know an unmanageable manageable amount of buying power And then of course, uh, you know, if you're in a smaller account and you don't want to be trading spx Which in this case, you know, this is a 2,300 almost 2,400 dollars in buying power for this trade You know, you can do spy which is one tenth of the size and there's no problem with that Uh Next trade so we opened so we had closed out our double calendar weekly double calendar and rut and then today we reopened another one Did this with seven days in the front week 14 in the back week, you know in the in the weekly income course We teach entering with seven in the front week and then the back week being more around 21 But again with implied volatility as low as it is getting a discant a decent risk reward just doesn't work out with you know that 21 days in the back in the back week, so we shorten that up And and then um, I'll show you what that looks like So if you go to rut Here's where we're at I I position this so we have a little bit more room to the downside plus prices moved up a little bit since I put this on And so this is what it'll look like. So we're going to hold this up until next Friday potentially And and try to you know stick within that range and and book a profit in rut If we get to a point where we're we're down about 400 bucks on the trade Which would be way out here beyond the expected move, you know kind in this area to the upside And this area to the downside You know in that case, um, then we're going to take it off for a loss But that's a pretty big range before we would take it off and hopefully it stays within here The other thing is if implied volatility expands if we get some downside and we get a spike in implied volatility These break evens will expand and our max profit will expand So these are not these are not uh the max profit and the break evens are not static on these calendar spreads They are dynamic meaning they can move it's kind of like an accordion They can move in and out in and out depending on implied volatility and price And uh in time to expiration. So That's the plan in rut And then lastly we did a closing trade in iyr we had a iron condor in iyr booked over 30 of max profit in just 10 days So we're out of that one So nice trade there. Uh, let's go back to the platform. Look at some of our other positions I mentioned 6b es gc gold We've got an iron condor in gold because the price is hanging out right here You got a little bit of profit could use a little bit more upside Before we do anything there Natty gas I mentioned bonds Uh bonds have been on a little bit of a wild ride. So here's here's one piece And we've got two sets of short strangles on you can see price is hanging out up here outside of our range But after we've made an adjustment remember crossing the break even that doesn't really trigger an adjustment What we do is we look at how much premium is left in the untested side. So in that case would be the calls So you can see we've got we've still got a little bit of premium left in those calls So we're not looking to roll them down yet But if price moves much lower next week, then that's exactly what we'll do we'll roll those calls in closer to price The other one that we have on is a we added another Strangle and we've got some profit here of a couple hundred bucks But just waiting for some more before we do anything on that piece In wheat we've got an iron condor. You can see price is hanging out well within range here Just waiting for some more time to pass on our wheat iron condor Apple has been the leader of the pack for these strong stocks and unfortunately, we've been short this one But uh, so this is our long put vertical. You can see price is broken out of the range So just looking for price to get back into range there Uh amazon did I mention that one? No, uh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, we've got that iron duck price hanging out right here into the duck head John Deere we've got this long put vertical that we've been uh Excuse me short call vertical started out as a long put vertical Um, and price is hanging out inside of our range here. So just holding on to that for some more downside DIA we've got these two sets of short call verticals that are also part of our short delta exposure You can see price is just outside the range Looking for some downside to get back into range there I mentioned ewz iwm Same story here another long put vertical price is hanging out right here on the breakeven Looking for some downside to benefit that I mentioned the cues. I mentioned rut smh So we've got a uh short strangle on in here that's that's already been adjusted because the price is way out here Um, I'm not looking to add to this just because implied volatility is super low at the zero on the percentile and rank But so we'll just continue to manage this and similar to what I've shown you in bonds We're not ready to make an adjustment if we look at the value of the premium in the puts Still a little bit of value of of what they're at right now compared to what they would be at expiration So we haven't made another adjustment yet if price continues higher into next week in smh We will roll those puts up But nothing nothing as of right now and we're in december so we've got Still got 35 days to expiration. So if we do roll those puts up, we'll stay in december If it comes back into range, then then we'll just keep it as is I mentioned spx spy we've got an iron condor and spy where price has moved higher Still within range here, but um, just barely right. We're just inside our break even here So we will be you know price continues higher We will look to take off our untested side, which would be this put vertical side And uh, hope hope, you know, just give it a little bit of chance to see if price comes back into range But at this point nothing to do in spy I mentioned tesla xl k another long put vertical price just outside of range just wait for that to Potentially get back if we have a pullback and then lastly xrt. We've got this What was put on as a strangle. We just did it into a straddle. You can see price is hanging out right here Um, just waiting for some more theta to decay If we get back to you know around the 43 price level We'll be at a point of in the profit of I don't know 100 bucks or so. We might just end up taking it off Um, applied volatility is decent in there. I mean, we've got an ivy percentile of 35 Not looking to add to this at that at this point, but um, That's where we're at with xrt. Just kind of playing the waiting game on that one All right, so where we add in our checklist here. We did all the current positions I talked about Earnings I talked about iron ducks in low iv earnings next week. So we've got three Decent candidates there are going to be some others And just jump in the community a lot of folks will be posting about some of the others But we're kind of winding down to the end of Of all the big stocks announcing earnings, but we've got home depot lows and target All of which are over a hundred dollar stocks and so Could be potential candidates for iron ducks If they don't work out And we'll be looking at those as we get closer to the earnings dates for those If they're not iron duck candidates, we will, you know, we can potentially look at trading some of our other Earning strategies around those kind of a tight iron condor or short strangles or You know, whatever whatever float your boat We'll get we'll get that premium Potential ivy contraction after they announce earnings. So some type of net selling a premium Depending on your assumption That is all I got. I hope everybody has a great weekend. We'll talk to you next week