 Good morning and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden today's date is Monday the 1st of March 2021 and the time has just gone 11 27 GMT and it's been a fairly positive start to the European training session Actually markets are wrong across the board are Showing strong gains. We've also seen a rebound. We've you see higher prices in metals and oil some positive sentiment risk on sentiment across the board Why is this? Well last week you saw a bit of a few occasions stock markets and metals came under a little pressure last week over concerns Due to rising government bond deals Because the belief is that got higher moving government bond deals could Push go central banks around the world be it Bank of England the better reserve of the European central bank down the route of kind of edging towards or Elaine they the groundwork for higher interest rates But there's not but central bankers some of them in a clear last week That won't be all true in their policy because of higher interest rate yields and also higher interest rate you higher interest higher There won't be increasing Interest rates because of the higher yields in bond markets. No, they use the argument that higher Bond bond yields indicates that you know the markets are pricing in further increase in growth down that number line Which is not unexpected here in the UK over 20 over 20 million people have been vaccinated So that bodes well for the reopening of the economy addition to that There is kind of gathering hopes that in the near term The US government the Biden administration was signed off on the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package So that should also give a lift to the US economy. So for all these reasons We've become a retreat government bond deals That's kind of paved the way for kind of bullet sentiment across the board Now what I'll do with the video. I'll see all those do I'll run through the major economic and corpus events of the week ahead and then a look at the big a look at the big Big markets the indices the currencies and the commodities So go on to our weekend article, which can be found on our website Cmcmarkets.com under insights under the latest news and analysis So today with a number of US big US companies in focus No backs in relation. They have their Q4 numbers, which are coming out after the close of clay tonight There's their share price Rally to an all-time high last month on the back of a strong COVID-19 vaccine results We also have a number. We also have Q4 figures coming out from the zooms in the communications They've been based at a great 20 20 in relation to the surge in demand for videoconferencing because of the rise of working home Looking at you tomorrow with the big US retailers target they have Q4 numbers coming out Keep the layout under both of all their kind of sales the same store sales up in particular. They're online sales It's also likely that they're going to have unique COVID-19 related costs which we encounter across the board for retailers We got a couple of big housebuilders in the UK report and figures this week Taylor will be a full your numbers tomorrow. They're looking ahead a couple of times. I believe we'll be a person in Also tomorrow the UK or across the world. We have the global Services PM up here my reports back going to be gives indication of how the house services that are faring up in the major biggest economies the world keep in mind It is the final reading for February. So you've already had flash figures out from the UK, Germany, France And also the US as I mentioned persimmon the UK home builder if only numbers coming out on Wednesday Host builders are doing well this morning. That's called that on the UK budget Would you be coming on a Wednesday? What you mentioned in a second this talk that we're going to have Including the budget is going to be It's going to be a go from packed guaranteed scheme of 95 percent mortgages. So let's give it a boost to the edit the share price of of the of the home builders also the speculation that we could have an extension to the to the Stam duty holiday the stamp duty holiday Stam duty was scrapped a property purchase in the UK or in England at least on Properties worth up to 500,000 There's talk the deadline for that. It's the end of this month with the talk that that is going to be pushed back Prudential portfolio figures coming out on Wednesday. I think the big political story of the week will be the will be the Will be the will be there will be the budget Richie she soon act is going to be in the limelight it was again And it's good. It's going to be focused around what kind of measures Are going to be brought in brought in to continue to offer support. Are we going to see an increase in an extension to furlough? Are we going to have an assistance in terms of Stam duty are we going to have assistance in terms of business rates digital things that are going to be Focusing on and when it comes to the end to the update on Wednesday We'll Wednesday afternoon Wednesday night. We have the US base book gives an update of US economy sparing out Wednesday. We have two or four numbers out from room Aviva the UK insurance company who's to be going through a process of spinning off as non-core assets That would have a splinter figures coming out on Thursday and on Friday US non-farm payroll support that's going to be coming up on Friday In fact, if you click on the link here non-farm payrolls you bring us to its own unique page I'm from there. You'll be able to actually sign up for the webinar which we're which I'm my colleague Michael Houston We'll be holding it on the 5th of March at 1315 GMT So if you're on feel free to sign up for that Starting off the major indices. I'll take a look at the footsie 100 So the footsie 100 as you can see here can put a little pressure on From late into mid start them to mid into late February But it has been pushing higher again here delay session But notice how it is yet to retake this blue line here the fifth of the moving average and that comes into play in around 6,616 because we're currently training at 6,570 there they're about so The more the near-term trends which is not the February onwards is still in the upside Well, even even shorter term trend is to the downside We seems to me to be at a potentially have a crucial point. Could we Retake the fifth of the moving average retest the highs in late February I think the ones test the highs mid February or if you fail to to retake the fifth of the movie average Market could turn lower on itself. I keep mine. It has been the market has been in a bit of a bearish trend in the past couple of weeks So if it does matter to retake the fifth of the movie average We could be looking at testing the highs of late February beyond that We could be looking at cutting it towards around 6,800 there they're about the highs of mid February and then if you go beyond that We could be looking up towards retesting the multi-month class or the near-year highs that were set back in January On the flip side if the market manages it fails to retake the fifth of the movie average at terms over on itself Should we be should we take out? The lows of last week we could then be looking at it back down towards the lows of early February in around 6,308 and then if you will be on that you can then be looking head down for this is out here around 6,248 Over in Germany that the germ the taxes in better shape is keeping mine It wasn't that long ago. What about a month ago? The tax was at an all-time high. So because notice here on the tax similar scenario has been moving broadly speaking Been moved lower from mid February through Late February, but notice how the tax is actually retaken. It's fit to the moving average It's blue. It's a respect to fit to the moving average and that comes in the play in around 13,850 for this blue line here So while the hold above that metric is like it at the broader upward trend Which has been in place for several months now. It's gonna. It's gonna remain intact That is the case we could be looking at retesting 14,000 Building upon 14,000 we could then be potentially at retargeting the highs mid February and then beyond that up towards the Autonomized ever set at the beginning of the month if in the other hand, let's not forget that from mid From mid-february onward. There's been in a series of higher highs and higher lows I know we're it could be at a crucial point here, but the market fails to take off 14,000 And it turns lower and if you take off the lows of Friday We could be then look heading it back down towards the lows seeing in a beginning of the back one beginning of February I had around 13,263 and a move below that could take us out toward this zone here in around just north of 13,000 they're not gonna 13,000 and 30 there they're out Taking a look what's going over on the US Starting off with the Dow Jones, so the Dow Jones not even a long ago the last week set up a new all-time high But the bullish move with the short lived is a very bearish kind of we saw here on Thursday the 25th fact Quite a clear example of a engulfed bullish engulfing council. In fact, even even the even the open that we saw didn't even actually get up as high as the close that was achieved on the Wednesday So you can see this red rectangle here body essentially kind of Not quite, but almost fully engulfed the body of the previous day's positive candle. So we it wasn't a surprise After seeing that kind of I made a short move lower on Friday, but Notice today where we're on Friday. We closed above the 50-day movie average this blue line here We're holding above that 50-day movie average which comes to the play 30,933 While we hold above that metric, it's likely that the kind of broader portraying to continue should that be the case We could be looking hanging back up towards 31,600 just north of it. You can see here on a few occasions that zone Um Maybe say 31,000 up to 600 700 there they're about that zone actually have the systems on a few occasions So connect the systems again if you move beyond that we could end up getting a targeting the all time eyes that were set only last week If the other hand we do have a 30 can 30 size to move to the downside If you take out the lows that were seen back in the last week Once again, we could take us back down to war as well back down towards 30,000 speak psychological number But also that area kind of coincides with the yellow line here the 100 in moving average As you can see Active niceties support back in late September You have to bought us kind of both support and resistance in in november Um, so keep a map of that area kind of 30,000 and the 100 in moving average comes to the play just south of it at 29,979 I'll take a look what's going on with the s and p 500 the other big uh u.s index Simmer scenario, but notice how the s and p 500 Achieved its all time high in the middle of february rather than the end of the month whereas which was the case of the dow johns But nonetheless in a very bearish candle on thursday move lower and finally to kind of a muddy week low But once again like the dow johns It's above it's holding above its 50 moving average which comes into play at 3,800 and 18 While we hold above that metric, it's like a kind of wider upward trend should continue If that's the case we could be looking at harrowing in 3,900 The movie on last could take us up towards the the highs of last week and then if you clear those highs Okay, let me looking at towards the all-time eyes that were set in the middle of the month Simmer scenario if you take out the lows of last week We don't then kind of put us in can you know? But I've had a month one month low but a four or five week low And that will can suggest that the new return negative trend is still in play Should that be the case we could look a heavy back down towards the simmer scenario again the lows of early february in around 3,664 Once again notice how that metric there isn't too far away from the more of the movie average at 3,682 And we can see here on a couple occasions back in september also in november that metric Won't really move the average the yellow line did act as both support and resistance So keep an eye out for that metric in the future Turn your attention on what's going on in currencies So the uh, take a quick look first off at the uh at the us dollar So here we here at cmc offer full-rex indices, which we call under the library under forks indices Although the what anything in your markets will talk about is the cmc usd index A full-rex index operates in a similar fashion to that of a stock market index in that It's going to comprise is the in this case is the us dollar marked against a composition Of several other currencies be at the euro be the british pound be the spritz It'll be the spritz frank be the Australian dollar so on and so forth So we can see here that is in a solid downward trend by some time It's either multi-year low in early january since then had a decent recovery Through the February had a pullback and it's moving higher yet again So the lows of late february didn't take up the lows of january and now we're moving higher again Well back above this 50 movie average the question some chairs will be asking is Are we going to see a kind of a are we going to see the dollar as a whole In a range for quite some time What is it looking to actually break out into kind of broader trend negative trend that's been in place So if we do have to move above the highs of very february or above the highs of mid december That could signal guess what the dollar is actually turning higher So with that in mind Take a look what's going on with a couple of big currency pairs starting off with euro dollar and then also on pound dollar So we talked about how the the dollar is probably a bit of a base Or see if we could be looking at building on that from here, but also potentially it could also turn lower so We can see here that this was a this this the lowest The high in euro dollar in early january was the highest mark in nearly three years Again one over two years that went on a set since then we found again. I'm looking at downside. It's rebounded It's very briefly, you know, I had a decent rally on last thursday But notice how it's back below the fifth day moving average. It's in the red again today because there's a broad move higher in the u.s. dollar It's simply the third point. Are we going to move lower? I'm going to take off the lows of late of early february and head head back down towards one spot 18 Should that be the case? You can even click at the head back down towards the lows of early november in around one spot 1602 but on the flip side if you do manage to get a Hold back the reason losses really take the fifth of the movie average in a one spot 21 47 Could be a sign that they get a broader upward trend is going to continue We really need to get take off the highs of last week in a one spot 22 42 Before we could get before we become confident I think on a wider upward trend is going to get back in play It shouldn't be the case. We could then be looking at retest and highs of early early january Take a look at what's going on the british pound First of the u.s. Donner So once again the pond a great run against the donner very recently the house been very strong against the donner It's correctionally really really kicked in at the back end of last week So it's very much in a solid upward trend. It wasn't a long ago It was it was achieving multi-year highs not quite three year highs but kind of one over two year highs on pound dollar So it's in a strong upper trend has cool a little while it holds above this fifth of the moving average blue line in a one spot 37 15 it's like a broader upward trend is going to continue Should that be the case? We could be like me heading up towards one spot 43 76 on one spot 43 76 Was a highs that was achieved in early 2018 Now if we do move to the downside in pound dollar We could find support for this blue line here the fifth of the moving average Notice how that could nicely support in the middle of december and also in late december and that comes into play in a one spot 37 6 15 So we talked about It has been recently some strength in the u.s. Donner Gold is listed and traded in u.s. Donners or a stronger donner often impacts pushes pushes a gold lower Which is precisely what we've seen only at friday. We saw gold fall back to levels last seen In june of 2020, so we're talking about multi-month lows were achieved the wider downtrain is very clear very very obvious Should that should I continue if you fall from we're currently trading at 17 42 If you take out the lows of friday, we could be like any back down towards 1700 You know one kind of big number that turns to be looking off for and if you go below that We could then be like any back down towards the lows of early june 2020 in around 16 70 and any moves to the upside Could need to kind of be taking off the highs of late february because you know We have a nice series of you know a lower low a lower high lower low a lower high Lower low so needs to be kind of taken off these kind of highs that were these lower highs So move to the upside could take us back towards 1800 and then beyond that up towards 1816 And notice how that the high here in mid february In around 1855 kind of cognitive resistance at that red line there to the moving average. So That's a really kind of good promise for the below the truly moving average a markets generally considered to be weak Through a markets above it generally considered to be strong So we'd really need to be taking off that truly moving average at 15. Sorry apologies at 1858 Before we can begin to think Perhaps a provider negative trend has been shaken off And then lastly, I think like what's going on the oil market very crude oil is in what is in quite a decent position It's been on a very positive run recently wasn't that long ago only last week We saw fresh 30 months high has been set up. It has come out every so slightly the general kind of you know, um kind of Bare a centimeter cooling in the market It has drifted lower, but it's still in very much in it's up for trend Very crude oil cash market. We are trading at 65 by 87 If the broader ball of shrink continues the next big level to watch out for people will be keeping it up for 70 bucks a barrel If you do mention the lower from here, we could be looking at targeting the lows of the myth of um Mid february in around 62 spot 18 and if you go on that we could be looking down head down towards the 60 dollars per barrel That's all from this video. Thank you for listening. Have a good training week and good luck