 వలెలాచేమ౏పినో పిమిపారు మానాఱుట్ఎ ంధాచిక్నత్ర్మదిందాన్. వత్ర్ నిచినిన వరిట్ని నం క్త్వత్డి మెర్రిస్ నినింద నిక్శినెలిక్ సండినిసి సండ్రాలాక్ సండిడాలూ నిరిఎన్డంలి ఀవర్యమరాలాయా తమిండి నివామరంకి సివీంచి పనికంచంచకి భాానినికి కన౾లంవరాసిరంపిరా. అరంచిలిగరికి టించి వాలఁలికికి. now let us go discuss something else we have studied many weather forecast types in the last class like now cost short range forecast medium range forecast long range forecast seasonal climate forecast why not all whether these forecast are amenable for the preparation of agro advisory if you raise such a question for now cost i say no lead time for the preparation and communication because now cost is for another one hour what will happen in the next hour so you do not have enough time to prepare and communicate to the farmers so in this case in the option is farmers themselves can take decision based on the information received one in case studies i can give for this now cost one now cost on the hail occurrence is given to the farmers of the nail agri districts of Tamil Nadu one hour back the farmers did operate their sprinkler irrigation so that your strategy has been developed to face the challenge from the hail farmers who did the sprinkler irrigation they were able to escape from the greater damage from the hail that occurred but farmers who did not do it their and their crops have been affected this is a story so they have to listen farmers must be very quick to take their decision here so as a scientist from scientific institution it is very difficult to give the agro advisory only at the grass root level of the farming community they can take their own decision and short range this is for 60 percent this forecast can be used for the preparation of agro advisory and also communication because the forecast is being given for one day with an outlook for another one day so 48 hours are available you can prepare and immediately you have to communicate to the farming community so still there is a communication problem even then farmers can take their own decisions in addition to our spontaneous release of agro advisories medium range highly useful there is european medium range weather forecast center in the european countries they give the agro advisories but in my last class i was telling that agro advisories or weather forecast or may not be highly useful to the stable weather system that prevail over european countries but it is highly useful to our tropical situation of our european countries they give forecast on our frost snow and everything it is partly successful there also now in the case of india and other tropical countries the medium range weather forecast is highly useful for the preparation of agro advisory as well as communicating to the farmers because it has got a deity time from three to seven days coming to long range can be hundred percent level seasonal climate can be hundred percent level since the lead time is more it is only 60 percent since the lead time is more it is only 60 percent effectiveness i say what is effectiveness when we were studying about the different types of forecast comparing with the the efficiency of the forecast given the long range forecast has 60 percent efficiency where your short range forecast has got 90 percent efficiency so with the lead time is more means whatever you do it has got little practical application rather than though it allows fully for the preparation of agro advisory and also to communicate to the farmers now the other important one so we have studied something on agro advisory what is the format to be used for communicating agro advisory this is very very very very very important unless you have a standard format you can't prepare a standard agro advisory why i say today you will prepare in one format tomorrow you will prepare one format formats may get confused there must be a standard that standard we like to discuss one is what is the agro advisory number it starts from january but it can be started based on irrigation year or based on agriculture year based on calendar year based on your meteorological week anything else but you must have a standard starting number and also put state date of your preparation of the agro advisory but in the basic thing for the preparation of agro advisory this is weather forecast for the next five to six days that you have to understand and you have to consider crop other interaction you have to consider indigenous knowledge that are available at the local level and you have to consider the thumb rules also and also you have to consider your experience you have to consider the analog years what was happened then only your agro advisory will be highly useful to the farming community first weather information what are the information we like to provide under weather information summary of the past week weather of a particular region of a particular district of a particular block what was happened what was the amount of rainfall received what was the wind speed and what was the your maximum temperature what was your minimum temperature what was the cloud cover what was your relative humidity like that what happened in the past week must be given in quantity manner or also in quality manner if it is in quantity manner farmers are able to understand very well so this is required then in addition what is the normal climate of the week this is very very important how to compute a normal climate we have discussed already we have to take 30 years data on all these weather parameters rainfall maximum temperature minimum temperature relative humidity wind speed wind direction and cloud cover so this how to be computed based on your past 30 years data may be for week may be for month may be for decadal analysis or may be for days anything else but the week is better so week take normal for week and provide here so if you find the difference this is the normal of a particular week but last week in reality this had happened so you can able to see pursue the weather situation then they are totally you consider the weather forecast received from the institutions for the next 5 days so you consider past you observe your normal and also you consider the next week forecast then you have the good knowledge and the weather situation of a particular district or particular block or particular area then you start preparing your agro advisories collect your crop information in reality what are the dominant crops of the region where you like to provide your agro advisories what is the crop stages whether the crop is sensitive to weather whether the present stage is sensitive to weather whether the whether the crop has any pest and disease whether any drought situation occurs if under a rail and agriculture so you collect all real ground real information from the your extension centers or extension officials you must have a network with them then only your agro advisory get validated very well so this you have to understand you have to maintain document you have to have a link with your extension department then after that I propose or we propose for this week I like to produce three agro advisories for dominant crops food crops within the dominant crops give attachment to your food crops then also one agro advisory for animals that also very very required then coming to the next stage so in general I have given whether information you are collecting or you are getting then you are getting the real situation crop dominant crops stages pest and disease load then thirdly you like to prepare three agro advisories for crops and one for animals now in India I like to say one thing we have the peak meteorological organization india meteorological department it is a renowned institution in india where there was a center national center for medium range weather forecast it was functioning separately earlier now it is get fixed with our india meteorology department so new delki they run global circulation model they have super computer so they get the weather data around the world all the optical system they collect all data and every circulation model is going on around 24 hours so they develop the weather forecast for five days and for each districts of india and communicated to concentrate your regional meteorological center if you if you see the administrative of india meteorology department one apex body is at a new delki and there is six regional meteorological center below that there are state meteorological centers okay so when the forecast is prepared for the next five to six days it is being communicated to the regional meteorological center under that center many states are being under control so after receipt of the weather forecast from the new delki they smoothen for the local states conditions by their experience by analyzing the past data they smoothen model gives a rough idea it may be nearer to the the actual things to be anticipated but they smoothen by their experience and past data and communicate to the concerned agro metafield units first new delki comes to the regional meteorological center then agro metafield units this agro metafield units is available or is positioned by state agricultural university or icr institution or state veterinary and animal science university many are given in you also being involved so each institution has is agro metafield units presently we have at the agro climatic zoner level so once one agro climatic zone level agro metafield institution the center is receiving the weather forecast it receives weather forecast not only for that center alone but what are the districts under the control of agro climatic zone they receive the weather forecast so suppose for example the agro climatic zone a is there where one agro metafield unit is there the agro climatic zone has got four digit means this agro metafield units gets weather forecast for four districts so after seeing then they convene expert people one agronomist one plant pathologist one entomologist one fishologist whatever may be the resource they convene a meeting on every thursday and friday and they analyze the weather forecast received from the regional meteorological center and also they analyze the data received from the extensive center on crop position stage and present disease load they prepare agro advisory then communicated daily's web and television and also sms through mobile number because they have got in the mobile number from farmers and those are being linked to our computer so when message is printed and okay if you put to pass on automatically the highlighted message that will be seeing later will be communicated to the farmers to take the decision to adapt so in this way this system is being operated so this is enough for today's class in the next class we continue some more things on this aspect thank you very much