 Okay, sorry about that. A slight technical mishap, but I believe we should be good to go now. So let's just skip through this risk warning on the screen here. Bit of a downturn in markets today. European markets managed to just about avoid a losing week last weekend in terms of shares, but not so much in US markets. And we'll have a look, I think, to start with at those US indices, because we're pretty close to putting in a fairly obvious top, and so we want to review the possibilities there. So let's jump straight over to the US 30, but we'll look at the S&P 500 as well, the US SPX. I admit this is not the cleanest looking chart I've ever drawn with these two channels pointing the wrong way. The reason I have this blue channel here is that it's just an easy way to draw a possible hidden shoulder. So I've connected these two lows here, and you can see that these two highs connect quite well. So that would be the left shoulder, the head, and then the right shoulder. And so what you can see is we've actually broken below that rising neckline. So officially, according to this head and formation, which does have nicely lined up left and right shoulders, we've broken down and we're going to see the distance from the head to the neckline projected to the downside. So that would take us below 17,000 if this formation is to be believed. It's not always that straightforward, and that's why I've drawn in this other channel. So we obviously are in a downwards channel here. The bottom of this channel would be tested in around 17,420 maybe by the time we get there. Could be sooner if we test down here today. And then we've obviously got these low from the 24th of March. So to me, this is a strong area of support that we have just below the breakout area. So, you know, it's kind of how much caution do you want to apply here? To my mind, okay, we've got the breakout, but still some heavy support below. There will likely be some people buying into this low. And so do you want to be fighting against those that layer of buyers that could overcome the sellers from the head and shoulders formation? So below 17,400, I think it's a bit more clear cut that we're breaking down, because we cleared a couple of hurdles of support there if we get to that stage. Training, as you know, is never always straightforward. Could always get a false breakdown through that support, but it's just less likelihood, I would say, of a breakdown through support at that point than there is up here when there's an obvious reason why it would be a false breakdown. It's just the other support holds. So it would take us below 17,000. 17,000 could be a market at which people get involved, but it depends how quickly we slide, because we've come up so fast, there's not that much in the way of solid support on the way back down again. And so we could easily retrace half of those gains, which would take us well below 17,000. If we just have a quick look, maybe we're getting a little bit ahead of ourselves here, but if we just look at the bottom of the rally, 50% takes us nicely down to this March 10th low here at 16,830. So that's a possible area. Obviously the 17,150 is as well, but I would say there's a couple of reasons here. This spike high on the 26th of Feb, this March 10th low, and probably not far off if we actually do project down from this head and shoulders pattern from the breakout area, which is here. That takes us to 16,932. This kind of vicinity could be next stop for markets if we get a confirmed breakdown here. What do I think is going to happen? Well, I think you just have to trade according to the pattern. But I think there's still a kind of, despite we're having some difficult weeks, as I mentioned, three weeks lower in a row now. It's not been panic selling by any stretch of the imagination. And I think we could still hold this area and attempt a little run higher this week, perhaps. But it is worrying when the same sort of pattern happens in multiple markets. And so you can see the same thing here, really. Here's the left shoulder, head, right shoulder in the S&P 500. And again, just that kind of, there's arguably the neck line, which is maybe a little flatter. Could also draw a rising one through these lows and through these peaks. But again, you have this 2020 kind of area, which would be another layer of support with the 200-day moving average just below there as a possible place that we will buy into the market and ignore this neck line breakdown. Now, not just the US, we jumped to the UK. A bit more of an extended pattern here and not such a big rally proceeding it. A bit of a long left shoulder here. But still, the markets run up, come back down, and then failed again at the same kind of levels that was, according to the left shoulder, forming what could potentially end up being a right shoulder. So this kind of block of support, I think, has been the kind of mid of the range. If you look at this as maybe the general price range that we've been dealing with, apart from these breakdowns in the start of the year, you know, you could call this 6050, kind of almost like a mid, probably mid of something closer down here kind of range. So if you call it the 6,000 to 6,500 range, obviously 6,000 is bang in the middle of that. And that's kind of what we're getting down towards at the moment. Breakback through 6,000 being the middle of that broad range could take us for another test down to the lows that we saw at the start of the year. But again, this is all premised on a break of support, which has not happened yet. At the moment, we're still holding just about above our broken downsloping trendline, but we haven't got out of the range, which you would have wanted to see really. But we've come right back down for a test on the trendliner. And you know, we certainly could move high from here. I think there's a decent chance of that. Might depend on how oil survives at $50 a barrel because we've just hit 49 in Brent today. So 50 is an area that a lot of oil companies have been citing. And let's just jump over to the Brent price while we're talking about it. 50 is an area that a lot of oil companies talked about as being profitable again. A few shale companies have said that they'll start producing more oil again. They'll turn the wells back on when we get to 50. So perhaps with 50 being bounded around us by a number of companies, it could be an area that speculators like you and I decide to get less bullish on the market. It does obviously correspond to the top of this channel again. At the moment, the oil market is looking very constructive. Certainly not time for calling atop. You've just got to be reminded, I think, of the significance of these round numbers, particularly for the bigger investors. So what I wouldn't be surprised to see is if we get a little push above 50, perhaps even a little bit above the peak that we saw in November, only to roll over again. Obviously very hard to call how big that roll over could be, but I could see it getting back below 40. So I've kind of started down the road of commodities, so I may as well stick with it. Gold, I mentioned this, you know, obviously had these two levels on the webinar last week. And so obviously had the level there, which was worked, though to be fair what I was saying is that actually maybe this level won't hold. And we could get a roll over down to 1, 2, 3, 7. That hasn't happened yet. So, you know, you've got to accept when your initial assumption is wrong. And we're taking up the high here from the 12th of May for the moment for today. And we're looking like we're going to break down a break above, which on the maybe a depends what kind of trigger you use for, you know, your kind of timing of the trades, you know, say that you've we've moved above a resistance. Well, okay, what do you what's the trigger for your trade? We're right at this, the connection of these two peaks. So definitely resistance, definitely that old line coming in again, probably not the not the the best risk award buying at these levels after this decent run up we've had in the last day or two. But then again, once we do get above 1, 2, 8, 4, you know, again, that's a confirmation of a bullish break back through these former supports turned resistance. I think probably ideally here we'd be looking for a little dip off the declining trend line to use as an opportunity to get into the market. Because we tried to break down here. We tried to make a new fresh low and low, but it hasn't happened. We held 1, 2, 60 very well. So now we're, you know, now we're back up above 1, 2, 80 and the market is looking strong. It's a range bound, but you know, obviously we're looking to break out of the range. What's supporting all today is that we had a note from from Goldman Sachs and it's not, they're not the first and there's a number of firms that are getting a bit more bullish on the oil price. Which, you know, given a lot of the same firms were calling for sub $20 just a few months ago, you could take it as a contrarian signal that we're reaching a top when suddenly the tide starts to change. So obviously, I had copper in last week's webinar just mentioned that we had broken down quite significantly and now we've just found support again at 206. So if we're in a range here, this is an area you could expect the price to rebound from and it's starting to look like it might. We had an inside day on Friday and at the moment we're breaking above that inside day. So if we get a close above last Friday's peak, you know, that's a confirmation of a kind of bullish breakout at a support level which could see us push back higher. Looks like RSI could get back above 30 if the strength we're seeing so far continues. And bearing in mind we had some quite weak data from China overnight if copper could put off a higher close then that's obviously performing in the face of weak data. We did, to be fair, have a note from the People's Bank of China mentioned in my morning note this morning that they're willing to step in and that they could do things to improve the numbers that we saw that were weaker over the weekend. So over to FX, you know, I haven't mentioned any of the economic data that's coming out this week, bit inflation dominated. We've got UK, CPI and US CPI released tomorrow. In the UK it's expected to pretty much stay flat with CPI at 0.5% and core CPI at 1.5%. In the US obviously it's just, you know, we've heard some slightly more hawkish comments even from today we heard Mr. Lacquer from the Fed suggesting there's a strong case for a June rate hike. The market certainly doesn't agree at this point but if we have some stronger inflation data from the US then obviously that would kind of support that more hawkish cause. In my mind June is a total write-off but there's a chance if things turn around enough that they could even maybe choose to hike rates in a month where there's not a press conference. If they do go for the press conference option which probably I think they would, the fairly dovish conservative bunch really, that would be September. But all that can be put into context with the dollar index here which on the June contract has risen up from 92, up to close to 95. So we've had a decent run-up in the dollar which probably to some extent is not altogether a coincidence that we've seen a downturn in US equities at the same time we've seen a jump in the dollar. We're looking at the Euro now. We reference this pattern I think in snapshot videos I think Michael did one on this and I think I've certainly covered the Euro or maybe that was against the yen but this being a potential breakout area of a longer term range we had a fairly clear cut shooting star formation on the weekly chart above that fairly obvious range resistance that's been in place basically since over a year, since February last year in the Euro and what it's starting to look like now is that we're going to head down to the bottom of the range. There's going to be a lot of chop in the meantime probably. That said things head down quicker than they head up so we had a big drop from there but it took us longer to get back up again. It's a strong resistance so it's understandable that we would break down a few times it would hold a few times before eventually breaking but we're in range bound conditions and the probabilities suggest that the range holds when there's a test of the upper bound or the lower bound and that it's going to travel back to the other end. So we're basically just holding on to the 114, sorry round number in Euro dollar but to my mind we get a test down at 112 again. So we had a similar pattern in cable where it had a big bearish and golfing candlestick day and we pretty much headed lower since so obviously that was just a failed attempt to break above the peaks from February and we've dropped fairly sharply since then. I don't think that the Brexit referendum unless the polls suddenly go a bit crazy and the leave campaign really starts coming out the head I'd be surprised if we take out 138 and heading it down to new fresh loads in cable. I think we're in a range we've failed to break out of this range and you could call the very bottom of the range but we've actually held support pretty well at 140 and if we do jump out to this monthly chart we can see that we're hitting some pretty significant levels here and this 140 has been big since the financial crisis. It's already possible that we've put in a low in cable and that we're heading back up to 1.7 again. Obviously the vote is only a month away now and to my mind, I've mentioned it on the previous webinar I think it's pretty likely that we'll vote to stay people will vote for the status quo and all other things being equal that's supportive of cable. How are we doing for time? We've got a bit of time. So this has been a tricky one I mentioned this in a snapshot video where there's a confluence of resistance the possible beginning of a head and shoulders pattern here and so far the resistance has held but we've been unable to break down and I think the worry at this point is that this formation looks a bit more if we zoom in a bit to the 4-hour chart that I was on before this looks more like a continuation pattern than a top to me. We've had a few attempts at breaking we had the initial drop lower, that was positive but we've just been going nowhere since and I think short from the resistance formerly mentioned is not looking as great it's looking a bit more likely that we're just going to push back above the 200 day and get a continuation higher I think at this point to feel more confident about this resistance holding you want to break down at this support level so you can see we haven't had a close below 0.7860 I would call it to round it off say 50 to be more conservative, 7850 a close below there I think would open up the gates lower obviously if you're waiting for that break lower you get a lower price but the move downwards is more likely to continue so it's that old chestnut again you're obviously short from the higher prices but we could get a rebound above or you wait for the lower price to confirm now Dolly Yen's getting a bit of a bounce here because there's been a lot of talk from Japanese officials I think there was again overnight just suggesting that they were ready to do some sort of FX intervention we mentioned again in a snapshot video a few weeks ago now that the 105 to 106 was strong support and we've had a bounce in the market since then at that aforementioned level basically based on these peaks and this low here and the 200 week moving average so we've got a bounce off a strong support level which is to be expected it's obviously come in line with the comments from Japanese officials I still tend to think that they're not going to do anything above 100 and Dolly Yen I think it's going to get down close to 100 maybe 101 or something maybe 101 and change and they'll try and catch the markets off guard with some sort of FX intervention then so I think possibly the market has more room to fall but we have to let the price guide us for the moment we're getting a rebound this 50 day moving average has been working quite well as resistance so move back above the 50 day and above 110 where you've got to question how far the likelihood of your premise that it's the market's moving lower at the moment we're still in a bearish trend and people are losing faith in what the Bank of Japan are doing in terms of monetary easing and if they don't intervene directly in the FX market then still the path of least resistance is lower so I think we'll call it a day there thank you very much for attending today much appreciate your presence sorry for this slight delay kicking off but good luck with trading this week and this is Jasper Lawler signing off cheers