 So, I want to talk to you about the topic of today, how we can go into the future when we're looking at social care. It's been really interesting as a futurist, I'll explain in a second what that means. Most of you probably don't know what that means. I didn't know what it meant until I became one. I was a musician and producer for a long time and I worked in the music business and I was lucky enough to meet musicians like Miles Davis and others. As a musician I had an interesting time but when the internet came in the mid-90s, you all remember that period of Napster when people were downloading music for free for the first time, I started working with the music companies about trying to define their future. And their response to the internet was basically we don't want it because it changes how everything is being done. People can connect and do whatever they want to do and bypass authority and parenthesis. So, what happened over the 15 years after that, the record labels were suing people and trying to do away with what people were doing on the web and finally about two or three years ago it turns out that it's better to actually give people what they want and make a business out of it which is what they're just starting to do. So, I think it's really important that we consider all the changes that are happening around us on a broader scale. Nothing is disconnected. So, for example, we clearly know that technology is interesting and cool and can solve lots of problems but technology is not going to be the panacea for our problems. We can't invent away everything. So, what I do as a futurist is kind of this. A futurist is somebody that's looking into the future and then works backwards. So, for a lot of my clients that I work with, they have this habit of saying, okay, what I do today is very likely what I do tomorrow. Of course, the reality is we know that's just not true. There's a great Chinese saying that says, if you want to know about the future, ask your children. And why do we ask our children? Well, because they're not busy making money. They're not busy running an organization. They like to play and experiment and if something breaks down, they move on to the next thing. So, this is very important that we don't actually look at what we have today and then extrapolate forward. But let's try in the next hour to zoom forward, not 50 years or 10, just three to five years and then work backwards and try to sort of touch the future. I mean, if you're looking at what people have thought about, you know, touching the future and the past, for example, this scene here from the 60s, a bunch of people sitting in a car that drives itself while they eat and play chess. We have that now. We have the Google self-driving car, which I drove myself, where you can sit down and have lunch while the car is driving and this will be a reality in many countries and many cities in 10 years. Kind of hard to imagine here because you have huge distances and you need your own car to drive those distances and you don't take a self-driving car to the bush. But you will have it in Singapore and London and Beijing and Zurich and those kind of places. So it's important to remember actually what it means to look at the future. And my company, the Futures Agency, we're a global network of about 25 people who are sort of agents for the future and our motto is it wasn't raining when Noah built the ark. In other words, sometimes a change comes that we haven't foreseen and we're not ready, but many times we can actually see that it's going to start to rain. And we work with many clients, technology companies, governments who are looking to sort of structure their own future. And by the way, of course, I have a lot of slides today, maybe a little bit overwhelming. So if you want to go online later, just go to my website, futurewithgird.com. Gird is spelled like gastrointestinal reflux disease, right? G-E-R-D. That's very easy to remember. That's my first name, by the way. I'm thankfully not afflicted with that, but futurewithgird.com is where you find my slides and all my downloads, my free books and everything. So you may remember when the new Pope was inaugurated last year or this year rather, the scene from 2005 was on the top where people, of course, some had mobile phones, but mostly had cameras. In 2013, everyone in the audience had a mobile phone. That's only eight years, okay? So the mobile phone has now become something that's just everywhere and it's really changing how the way it works, the world works. When I go to Brazil, where I spent quite a bit of time now doing some teaching and also some projects, it's really amazing to see that people that have five dollars more a month, the first thing they buy after food and shelters a mobile phone and how that changes their life. So this is really, of course, what people with disabilities and the elderly, I mean, this is a mind-boggling change, especially when you now control the mobile phone without your hands. This is the next big thing. Kind of a scary thought, however, is if the mobile phone is moving from the devices into our head, which is what's going to happen as the next step. I'm not sure I like the idea, but I'll show you some slides that you can think about what that would mean. But as I was preparing for this, a lot of people on the web were talking about how the social care has sort of a virtual component to it. And, of course, you know all the debates about robots that can take care of people or electronic pets that greet you at the door, which are very popular in Japan. But technology is apparently a huge opportunity for a lot of the things that are currently limiting, starting, for example, with the exoskeleton that comes from the military that allows quadriplegics to walk, using their mind as a control. The machine costs, like, you know, $500,000, so it's more experimental at this stage. It's a very good report here. If you want to Google for this, the virtual future of social care will give you some good ideas. Okay, let's go back to the top for a second. I mean, clearly, you know that we're becoming sort of, I call this a digital society. So the Internet becomes essentially like water or electricity. In many ways, you could probably say, in many countries now, it has become a civil right to connect to the Internet. In fact, in Finland, you can sue the government if you can't connect. So it becomes like water or like electricity, which is good and bad. I'm not saying it's all good. You know, we know about Internet addiction, for example, and the obsession with mobile devices while you have dinner. So, however, becoming a digital society means that by 2020, we're looking at roughly 8 billion people and population growth will eventually top out maybe at 9 or 10 billion, which is already probably way too many. We in Europe are not heavily contributing to that. Most European countries are actually declining population. But 60% of those people will be connected to the Internet. So we're talking about roughly in the neighborhood of 5 billion people. So what happens when 5 billion people, you know, Chinese people, Indians, Africans, Brazilians can connect to the Internet. There's a huge flood of things, even more than we have now, coming towards us. Intelligence, research, studies, the big pharmaceutical companies that make medicine, they have now resorted to publishing their information into public domain so that they can find researchers and students helping them to solve huge problems that they weren't able to solve before called crowdsourcing. This is a major trend that we're seeing on a global scale. It's also interesting to see what happens with equality. As I'm sure you're aware of, you know, there's a huge debate in all countries about what that means to have an equal opportunity. But Australia is not doing so badly on this list. It's a little bit hard to see. The Nordic countries, of course, are always doing very well, you know, Sweden, Norway, Austria, and Switzerland is also in that order. But Australia is actually number 25 in what's called the Gini coefficient, which means that Australia is a place where there are some inequalities, but also some good things being done about them. So we can debate this later, but it's not looking entirely that bad. But about the internet, you know, basically what we're seeing here is that I think it's becoming really important that everyone is connected. The elderly, the disadvantaged, those who can't afford it. It's just like having energy or water, access to that. So a key theme in this is just kind of a, you know, for many people, this is kind of a sort of a science fiction story. When you're looking at the likes of The Matrix or Total Recall or all those kind of movies that you know, this is a key theme for our future now is how do humans interface with machines and vice versa? I mean, in an interesting way, we already have this every single day because the mobile phone is a machine that is essentially our second brain. We're connecting to it all the time. So if we have an argument about what to do, we look it up on the mobile phone. We have an argument about what medications to take. We look it up while we're waiting for the doctor. So this is basically what we're using here is artificial intelligence. Google is artificial intelligence. What did we do before the age of Google? How do we find out about things? So this is rapidly changing the way that we look at everything. Our problems, our relationships, our banks, our providers, our governments. Last year, there were 56 laws overturned because of Facebook action. Overturned or not even started. So today, if there's an issue, it always ends up being somewhere on the web in many different ways. For example, there was a law in America called SOPA which had to do with online rights. That was overturned through Facebook and other social media in one week. So a lot of activity is moving in this direction of using those kind of technical relationships. But of course, here's a question of balance. You know, you could argue, of course, now in the last couple of months, we've heard about what American law enforcement is doing with our data, the NSA and the Prism Affair and Snowden and making us feel, you know, surveillance. Australia is, of course, part of that as well. So the question, however, is not whether we're going to do this or not. This will be a difficult question. The red pill, the blue pill, you know, or what is it, the green pill on the matrix? The question is really a question of balance. If we were not to use technology, we'd have to move to Amish country. We would have to detach ourselves completely. Every mobile phone that we carry broadcasts our presence in the cell that it operates in. Here in Australia, all of your license plates are scanned by the police. And they're not throwing those photographs away. They're keeping them for five years. I just read about the other day. So what are you going to do? Not drive, not have a license plate? It's a question of balance. So when we talk about technology and human machines, it's really a question of balance and ultimately a question of ethics. So I'll talk more about that in a second, but these devices are now already our external brains. And for people who are not fully able, this is a huge step forward. As we know, of course, my mother, you know, she's 77. When I gave her an iPad, she thinks it's the television. Because she doesn't know it's a computer or it needs whatever the internet is, you know. She just hits it with, you know, as long as the power is plugged in, she hits it with a finger and it shows her television apps, you know, just select what she wants. So technology has become so simple. And so unobtrusive that almost everyone can use it, especially now that you can gesture or you can speak. And of course, you know the next big thing is language translation, which already works really well in the labs. You know, I've tried it in the Google Labs myself. You speak in German, comes out in Chinese, if you want, in real time. This kind of science fiction stuff is of course crucial if you're going to take care of people who don't speak a language very well that you can use these tools. On the other hand, you could argue, will our kids ever learn languages again if they can use this? Like they use a calculator rather than, you know, do math in their head. But anyway, this is happening. These are becoming our internal brains, our external brains, so how are we going to respond to this? Where are we going with this? And what are the benefits? Of course, here we're facing this problem of unintended consequences. For a disabled person to be able to speak into a box and pull up a TV show or move something around by thinking is fantastic and it's a huge thing. But for a kid that's just plain lazy, using the same process is unintended really. So should they be learning a language just because they can? I think what's happening here is that because of this mechanism of technology, now we're now breaking through a whole new frontier as far as being disabled or old or otherwise excluded as concerned. And I would also argue that many of these things will become so utterly cheap that it will be just like, you know, it doesn't matter if you have one or not. I mean, consider this fact that the Kindle, which you may know for reading books, actually costs only $5 to make. So if Amazon wants to give away the Kindle for free, they can. In Brazil, where I work and also many other countries, the government is considering buying 100 million tablet computers for students. And at a price of 100 million or 100 million units, it will cost $5 a piece. And then the students can learn using a mobile device. So that's really going to change how we look at the world. Now, you've heard about exponentiality and maybe you heard about Ray Kurzweiler talks about what's called the singularity, kind of a difficult topic, which I don't want to go near because it's a little bit outside of our corner. But what's happening with technology is that technology is growing exponential. Moore's law says that every 18 months, technology gets twice as powerful. And that's been going on since the 1920s. So what we have today is that technology is exploding and it's rapidly getting so fast that many of us are mind-boggled with the possibilities. So being able to speak into a machine and pulling up a map or finding out where the nearest Starbucks is, is quite normal now for a lot of us. But it's exponential technology and we're really here, we're sort of here at the takeoff point. And Australia today is right before the point to where we're counting one, two, four, eight, not one, two, three, four, five. And so the next step is eight or 16, it's not five. This is, of course, very hopeful for people with disabilities or people who are not otherwise equipped to participate. Because what it does, of course, it frees up a huge amount of resources. And at the same time, it frees up a huge amount of responsibility of us dealing with our people that we take care of, for example. How do we do this? So, of course, I'll give you a couple examples. And again, when you download the PDF, you can go through it one by one. But how will technology change the lives of people, for example? You know, having information. Now you can get an iPad app where you can see your entire body in every variation and you can take a look at what's wrong. And you can actually see it like a doctor would see it. And you can drill into your muscle. You can look at all of the issues. You can really get inside of this. And this makes you feel like you're a lot more involved. You have a lot more power over your destiny. Websites where people meet each other. Patients like me where you can come together and talk about the problems that you're having and build an online community. Mobile apps that help you with your health. For example, this is a device that helps you measure your eyesight with a mobile phone. And this is changing the way that people interact with things. Sensors that are based on your skin where you can monitor things using the mobile phone to measure medication. Find out if people have taken their pills or not. Or find out what's in the pill for that matter. Sleep analysis. We used to have to go in the hospital for two weeks. Now we can do it at home using this device. Remote apps for analysis, diagnosis of disease. All these things that you've seen. So this slide here is from a good friend of mine, Ross Dawson, who's actually here from Sydney. And he's talking about what's happening now in general is how we're moving from the stuff that used to be normal in parenthesis to the things that are kind of science fiction, but they're already here. So the things like retirement, privacy, video rental stores. Switching off the welfare state, he says. Biodiversity, eight hour sleep. That's kind of over here. And on this side is all the stuff that sounds like state out of Star Trek, right? Customized medicine, personalized billboards, augmented reality. If I keep going with this, your head will spin. Mine's already spinning. So how do we take advantage of all of these things? Well, there's one thing I think I want to suggest to you is it's very hard to learn how to swim if you don't want to get wet. So when you're talking to your clients and to your partners and to your network about what's happening with technology but you haven't actually tried it, that's a bad idea. I mean, talk about social networks. You're going to use the power of social networks to do something. You can't do that from the outside. You have to actually get inside. You have to get wet. And these are all things that are going to happen the next five years. So I think if you're in social care, it's a good idea to investigate these technologies and these new things that are happening. Because one thing is for sure what we're seeing here is not just a change. It's transformation. This is a substantial difference in change and transformation. Change means you're doing something and you're amending it to fit a new situation. Transformation means you're getting out to be somebody else in the end. That's really what we're talking about here. When people use technology, it doesn't just change that they can do something faster. It changes the culture around it. It changes authority. There isn't a single politician in the world now, probably in the entire world, that is not using social media as a way of building their constituents. That's a good thing and a bad thing, but for the most part I think it's a benefit for us. So just like this toy that you may know, we're now constantly transforming from one to the other and on to the next. That's just the reality that we're living. This of course gets harder when you get a little bit older. But let's take an example of really, really larger businesses. For example, one of my clients, a big car company, they are finding out that the idea of having a car as a symbol of status, something that you want to have fun with, is declining. In fact, in most countries, kids aren't getting driving licenses. For the first time ever in America, the last five years, every year less kids are getting their driver's licenses. And why is that? Because they're interested in technology. They live in a big city where they can drive. There's no room. They have no intent like we do to liberate themselves by driving around. So what car companies now have to do is they have to transform. They know we're going to have electric cars. We already do. We're going to have self-driving cars. We're going to have public cars. The biggest trend in cars is not to have one. That may not be true for this country quite yet because of the size of the culture. But in Switzerland, where I live, you'll find that people have cars, but they don't use them. Because in Switzerland, our train system is proven it's a small country. We have four hours to go through the country. It's like going over the bridge here. But it's a small place. But what people do in Switzerland is that when you go to a meeting, if you take the car, you consider an outcast. Because it's not social. You're not responsible to take your car because the train works well. So what car companies now have to think about how are they going to get into a world 10 years from now where people have less private cars, very likely. They have public cars like their city is looking at buying 50,000 self-driving cars owned by the city that you can subscribe to with an app. Imagine what this would do for disabled people. I mean, on demand. Probably free. Sponsored by Barclays like the bikes that you see in London. Where you can hit a button and the car will turn up with a wheelchair ramp where you can drive on and just roll into it and it will drive itself. So, transformation. Let's talk a little bit about what that means for politics and for culture. You know, the definition of what a happy country is is a very interesting discussion in this context. And what does happiness actually mean? This just came out. It's called the World Happiness Report. I have no idea, you know, why Switzerland, for example, where I live is number three. People in Switzerland would argue that's not true. But again, the Nordic countries win the prize here. But, you know, you see in this list here, Australia is number 10. Congratulations. You're number 10 in the happiness. Did you know this? Did you feel happy now? Must be the sun or the rain and the absence of rain for any other day than now. That is, of course. So, and it's composed of several things. This is the interesting part. It's not happiness. It does not mean you make money. That's just one of the components. One of the five has to do with diversity, with social support, with a way of having your opinion heard and so on and so on. When you download this, you can take a look at this. But GDP, gross domestic product, money is just one of the factors. And this is an interesting debate, of course. How do we actually get to have a country that's happy? And I went back to 1968 when John F. Kennedy already said that gross national product says it measures everything in short except that what makes life worthwhile. And that was so true then and, of course, even more true today. The definition of what makes life worthwhile is not just related to how much money is being made. So I want to propose a definition that is quite common now around the world is being discussed as gross national happiness. And the state of Bhutan that you may be aware of has promoted this on a global level. So, can we define something like I would probably say in a more general way, gross national well-being. You know, I think it's a better definition. Can we define that as a goal and what does it mean? Because I think that's what we're ultimately heading towards. Whoops. So I'm working on a new book and it's called From Ego to Eco. And while I was preparing for this session, I Googled around a bit more and I found this graph by somebody I didn't actually make this. So it's the typical, you know, internet borrowing that went on here. But the future of what we're looking at is a complete morphing over from this idea of a top-down pyramid to sort of a biosphere. I don't mean in the sense of ecology. I mean in the sense of organizational. And I know here in this country the government is forcing you to compete with each other now because of these new reforms. But in the end, what we're seeing on a global level is that we're all moving to acting as ecosystems, interconnected systems. And this is of course something that has a very large story underneath it. But I think our opportunity is to build ecosystems, not to build ecosystems. And this is really what it comes down to. And this is quite a challenge, I think, on a global level. But what we're seeing here is that kids, for example, you know, I call kids now between, say, 12 and 35, right? So some of you would still qualify for this. They're now referred to as generation re. And there's been lots of research on this and millennials and so on. Because these people are now thinking, you know, my kids are on that age as well. They want to reuse. They want to recycle. They want to rethink. And they also want to refuse. So this is why generation re is so powerful, because they're doing all these things. They want to repair and recycle, refuse, rethink, reuse, and reconsider. So our job, as I was saying earlier, with transformation, is to reimagine what our world looks like. You know, five years from now at the sort of, at that level. And the research from Nielsen shows that 68% of these people are considering the top objective of companies and governments to be sustainable into taking care of others. And this is new. People actually care. Now in this country, you just defeated the carbon tax, for example. I don't know if you did, but it was defeated, allegedly. So what does it have to do with that? I mean, I think we're heading into a future that is sustainable, equal and inclusive. I think from doing work around the globe, I can say that I think sustainable comes at default requirement. Whether it's in technology or work or health or education or in government, it doesn't just become the nice to have. Because clearly, if it's not sustainable, it will eventually bottom out or explode as we see in the U.S., where everything has not been sustainable. So this is a big topic for the future. Now, I want to talk a little bit about innovation. This is a picture of the backdoor of a building. And I think what's happening today is that many of us that are innovating, they're finding backdoors to solve a problem. So you're creating something that basically says, okay, there's an opportunity to come in in a less obvious way, and it's a great quote here from Charles Schwab, who runs the World Economic Forum. He says, innovation becomes even more critical in terms of an economy's ability to foster future prosperity. And then he talks about, there is no difference between developed countries and less developed countries, but between those that are innovation rich or innovation poor. I think that's the key word here. Is Australia going to be innovation rich? That is the key question. And with innovation, I mean social innovation, economic innovation, technology innovation, all of those things taken together. This is, I think, the mission for the future is to find those backdoors. I'll talk a little bit about technology now. Here's my friend Michael Douglas with his first mobile phone in a movie. Now, with this phone, you could have killed people. In fact, I think he did. But interesting to see that exponential technology progress now means that what sounded like science fiction is complete mainstream. You know, take this mobile phone. Now we have the mobile phone on the wristwatch with the Samsung watch. Now we have mobile phones with Braille that a blind person can operate. I mean, this sounds definitely like science fiction. You can make a phone call as a blind person with a Braille phone. And all the stuff we're seeing now, for example, this device here, which is a connected things device. I think it's actually called smart things. Yes. This device you set up in your house and then it allows you to control all kinds of things that are connected to that device. For example, your refrigerator or your air condition or your thermostat, your heater, your garage door. Imagine what that would do for somebody that can't move as easily. And this is $50. I mean, it's more expensive to set it up. It's not, you know, it's on the geek territory here. And of course, Google Glass that you may have heard about that allows you to control the Internet with your eye glasses, with blinking, essentially. Again, there's unintended circumstances here of people using it that don't really need to use it in such a way. But if you weren't able to use your hands, this would be a godsend, obviously. Things like this that can use your brainwaves to control things. Right now, again, that's highly complicated. And if you want to walk with an exoskeleton as a quadriplegic, you have to spend a million dollars and practice for five years. But five years from now, these things could become, to a large degree, parts of that at least, normal because technology makes it work. Robots that take care of people as scary as a thought may be. Watch the movie, Frank and Robot, if you have seen it. Well, I think it's actually called Robot and Frank. Gives you a glimpse of what's going to happen there. So what do we do about this? I think we're going to see massive physical and behavioral mobility of revolution for the disabled, the excluded, and the elderly. For example, the public car here. You can call with the flick of your app. The wheelchair that can climb stairs. That's available as a public utility. That is really changing things. I mean, if you're looking, for example, what's happening now with communications, being able to talk to elderly people remotely through Skype. I mean, lots of people are doing that already. But this is becoming a standard. You know, basically helping us, for example, finding things through browsing without typing, but just speaking. That alone, two years ago, didn't really work. Today, anybody in this room can try it. If you have a mobile phone, just use the Google app. Pretty much any phone, you can speak into it and we'll find the answer without typing. And we'll speak it back to you in several languages eventually. Now, there's a device that costs $5,000. They can go on the rounds with the doctor. They wheeled along in a little wheelchair while it's really connected to supply information to the doctor. How long is it going to be before these devices are $2,000? And what are we going to do about it? I'll leave that for you to discuss. But are you ready for electronic teammates? I know it sounds funny. It's like saying, are you ready for a mobile phone? You know, it's like, yes. It actually works. This is the backstory here on the left. An electronic teammate like this would be a software agent, for example, that goes out and fetches information about your disease and gives it to you in the morning like a newspaper. Something new was found. Here's the update. And this is already happening today. We're moving into a world where everything becomes intelligent. That may actually make us stupid. We'll discuss that later. But now we have a world where everything in the house will be connected because it can. Motion sensors, security, control, environmental controls, intelligent objects. I have a band called, I think it's called the Fluid from Nike that measures how many steps I walk, how much I sleep. I don't use it anymore because I'll tell you later why. But it actually gives me feedback on what I'm doing and it gives me warnings about whether I'm doing too little of this and too much of that. So the question is, do we need this? And I think that in many cases, if you're looking at elderly or disabled people, this would be clearly a benefit to have. How will you pay for it? Not the question. Of course, now we have this trend that's called the qualified, the quantified self. That is a trend that basically says that as we're monitoring ourselves, we can change our behavior so we're better off. This is called the scanner do. This device will be $100 and it will also have a blood-pricking part to it so that you can not go to the clinic if you can't to send that data to whoever you want to send it to. These devices are very likely to eventually be free for several reasons because they save budgets. They can be mass produced. They're not that hard to make. They're like a kindle on the end. So how will that change the relationship between taking care and those that take care of you? Eventually, of course, this is good news and bad news, quite a few jobs will disappear because of automation and smart machines. I have positive news, too. But clearly, if we're looking at a world to where the taxis are self-driving, that's losing 27 million cab drivers if they all had to leave for that. Not that we would really miss them, just maybe some of them. The self-checkout at the grocery store, 40 million people. 3D printing, where you can print coffee cups and those kind of things on demand, like you print now with a Xerox machine. Healthcare robots. So there are some other futurists predicting we're going to lose 1 billion jobs in the next 20 years. That's one-third of the global workforce because of automation. Here's a good part, of course, big butt. All these things are going to happen and clearly, if you're in the financial business, for example, where you're analyzing data to buy and sell stocks, software can do that. I mean, this is a data analysis job. Or, for example, take an iPad. You know, an iPad is being constructed by 323 people and have to put hands on the iPad to actually make it. And this is why they're in China or wherever they're going to go next, wherever it's cheapest. So when robots can take over that job, it'll be only 20 people who have to touch it. But clearly what we're going to see is that we're going to have a massively increased importance of human-only skills. And there are things like negotiation, creativity, imagination, intuition. All these things that machines will have a hard time with for quite some time. And, of course, the human contact between people. So very likely we're going to see a combination of these kind of devices and the human ingenuity. But the question, of course, is what will eventually happen with our own skills? Will we have the skills to control the machines? Or will they get better and better and cheaper and cheaper? I think, in general, this is a positive trend, but it does release, of course, the ones that have simple manual jobs like cab drivers. So you can see on this chart the global shifts and where the jobs go. Luckily, all of you here on the green pyramid, and down here is, of course, I don't agree with the restaurants, by the way. I don't know why it's down there. But banking construction automotive, you know, that's the shrinking part of the job economy. And up here, hospital health care, health, wellness, fitness, you know, this whole green sector is growing. So while the manual jobs, including, for example, lifting patients or transportation may eventually go away, there is new jobs coming up that have to do with running the whole ecosystem that surrounds care. But it's something to be prepared about. I think, ultimately, we can't compete with machines that do a good job on this. But this is one thing we have to think about, is that what I call machine thinking. Is the thinking that we can invent a machine that will take care of another machine that takes care of a third machine and so on and so on? So in the end, we have a system of algorithms and machines. That certainly wouldn't be what you want for care. I don't think. So machine thinking is a real trap, because obviously it makes money to make those machines and to create machines that actually do this. Anyway, so let's take one step further. You know that everything that we're doing, whether it's our music, Spotify and others, or Netflix with movies, you have Netflix here? No, you don't have Netflix here. It's a movie subscription service. Of course, cable and other things, and books with Kindle. Everything is moving into the cloud. The cloud meaning that technology is up there somewhere that we connect to. And this is inevitable because basically what happens, you know, as you are scanned with your license plate, as you use the mobile phone, as you use a coupon to go shopping and so on and so on, all of our information is moving into the cloud. There are estimates saying that over 40 million lives could be saved if health information was in the cloud of everyone. If we had everyone in there so that when you're traveling, all the information is instantly available to a caretaker that is somebody else in at home. Folks out with an accident. But then again, of course, it would be difficult to say who should actually be able to see it and who not. This is the other question, the privacy question. So as long as we don't feel safe with this, we're not going to be happy with moving our stuff to the cloud. And this is why we have the recent debates about what's happening in America with the spying and the surveillance. You know, this is definitely something that has to be solved. If we don't feel safe about doing this, we won't participate, which means we will never get the benefits of this. So take for example a scenario to where you're taking care of 150 people and their information can be put into the cloud. You can synchronize their schedules. You can look at things together and you can get information back that says this is how you can do a better job with other resources that you can only see when you put it all together. This is the kind of thing that happens in the cloud that we're going to see. What is referred to as the health cloud and there's in fact a company called the Care Cloud that I found that I looked at where all of the things that you do are part of an online system of merging the data of all the people you take care of. It's a little bit like salesforce.com if your companies use that to track sales, the same sort of idea. So what happens here is that we're moving all that stuff into a cloud and the next step for that of course is telemedicine. I'm sure you have heard about. We're going to see dramatic increases here together with those devices that I can use myself. Maybe it's good to leave the house, maybe it's hard to leave the house. It depends of course on the particular case. But telemedicine is going to be absolutely explosive the next five years. And in many ways for example doctors are not so happy with this because they get to be commoditized to some degree if somebody can do their own analysis of diagnosis, right? It changes the way that they work. Take a scenario like this to where my grandmother is monitored by an online system that submits data back to some intelligent system to where I can monitor if there's an alert or not or if it's real or not or what her state of health is. That is the border between surveillance and usefulness that we're going to have to think about. So we're going to face serious role changes and I think this is very positive. I think what we do or what you do in this business will change dramatically. Your role will change dramatically, probably expand. So the doctor becomes in a way a different kind of job. What you do with this and how you take care of people. And of course you could do this without being a doctor. In fact in Switzerland where I live we have an initiative that says about 80% of what a doctor currently does could be done by qualified nurses. And dramatically reduce the cost. Of course doctors don't really like that idea very much but in Switzerland it's interesting to see that the response of doctors was maybe I'll only work part-time then was their response. We have this debate in Switzerland it's a public vote coming up on this because when you use technology you know qualified people can do the same thing to a very large degree. And talk about cost savings right? I mean this is of course a question of a lot of debate but I think getting people connected is where it all starts. I found this really interesting chart here saying that the indigenous communities here in Australia compared to the others are not faring very well here on the left is the indigenous population and on the right is the rest of the Australian population. Of course that's not news to you but you know I found it interesting to see that the connectivity here really lacks behind. So I think if we were to connect everyone in a way it should become something that is a civil right to be able to connect because when you're not connected you're missing out on a whole bunch of interesting things that can really change your life including of course all those tools becoming available. So that's kind of the thing that we're seeing here is also this dramatic empowerment of what I call the people formerly known as consumers. I mean just go to the website in the US called raidmds.com where you can raid your doctor like you raid a hotel on TripAdvisor. Now the doctors have said this is actually quite interesting because I can see what the other guys are doing and I can see that I'm doing a better job it gives me motivation just like the hotels. But you know in Europe we don't do that. I mean we would never raid our doctor. It's just not done. But now we have this empowerment because of this. Imagine if you're in the market to buy, care. What are you going to ask for? It's not just about the money and the value it's about what do other people say? The social connectivity. Who's recommending it? What is the track record? What is the connectivity? What are they saying about you? So it's really quite obvious now that broadband mobile internet access really is like water or electricity and it should be. And I think the government I think they are working on this of course allegedly. But in Europe you know the European Commissioner said this eight years ago. Nelly Crow said fast broadband is digital oxygen. Because we know of course this is not entirely without self-purpose right? Because clearly 10% of broadband means 1% growth of GDP. And all the countries of course are always worried about GDP. So they want to grow. But in Finland you know you can sue the government if you can't get online. So maybe one of your initiatives for what you do should be to get people connected so they can actually connect to you. I mean an interesting scenario that we're seeing unfold in the medical field in health where I do some work. In the US the Mayo Clinic which is the biggest cancer and other big diseases clinic in the US they actually give their patients an iPad with the application on it that you take home. So you can communicate with your doctors and you can look at your own x-rays. And you can ask questions and you can talk to others if you want about you can create a network with this device. It's owned by them. So it won't be long before here you can give your client a mobile device that has all the information that how you can connect and how you use it. And this is a device that you don't have to be an expert to use. You can speak to it. So access is really crucial. So in terms of the ore and the rain you know what we're seeing here is something to get ready for in this interesting graph here is what happened with computing is that we're moving this idea of typing typing stuff in and talking to the computer and now blinking using Google Glass into thinking and connecting to the internet. That will be a scary day. And there we're facing of course the issues who should pay for this who should be able to have it and who should not and so on. These are large issues just like there are issues today but who should be able to get a free ride to the hospital or not same concept. So that is a trend that we have to watch. I think the biggest challenge here again because I'm not a technologist you know I'm actually outside of technology in the most cases it's really about ethics. So once technology really rocks and we can all do all these things and we have the budget for it and we're all connected it's really about ethics. This is something we should be thinking about. Who should have it? How should it be paid for? Should it be a utility? Should the public electric car be free? These are all topics that we have to face in the next few years. And Peter Drucker who's a management guru who said the greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence itself but to act with yesterday's logic. Now of course it's unavoidable to act with yesterday's logic because that's all we know. But as an exercise you know can we sometimes try and I recommend for a lot of my clients to do this three to five percent of their working day to step outside of what you're doing today to actually think about what is tomorrow's logic. And in many ways we already see in that form what tomorrow's logic is. For example we see here clearly yesterday's logic great example of course is the fossil fuel industry. I mean yes we all want to drive and we all want our homes to be nice and warm in the winter. But yesterday's thinking is to essentially do whatever it takes. Tomorrow's thinking is what for example here the CEO of Unilever says is in order to live with the natural limits of the planet we have to decouple growth from the environmental impact. We can't just grow and grow and grow no matter what happens on the other end. Because he says that you know just from a business standpoint climate change is already costing Unilever one of the biggest consumer goods companies in the world two hundred million dollars a year. Now what he says about this is it's very clear that none of us can prosper if the surrounding context doesn't prosper. The ecosystem. So tomorrow's logic is thinking about the ecosystem. It's thinking about how everything is connected. And this is part of the challenges that we used to live in this world where you know we are over here for example here you are taking care of people here in the medical field here the financial field it's all different places and silos. But the reality is it's not. It's all interconnected. As we're seeing right now in the political debates these issues are all intertwined. They're not separate issues. And this is also where leadership comes in and I would encourage you to investigate this. I mean you have good leadership here. I can I can see that. But now leadership does not mean creating more leaders or more followers. It means creating other leaders. It's a very important scenario that we have to flip these switches you know from the can can to the can and from the closed to the open. And I think we're seeing this on a global scale as a development. I call this hypercollaboration. For example in the US you just saw about nine months ago that UPS and the US Post Service the biggest rivals in history of American postal distribution they've teamed up to actually create a new service because they were both dying. I mean everybody knows the US Postal Service that's been dying for a long time but now they finally figured out how to create something like this global brain. Hypercollaboration. We discussed yesterday morning in the breakfast group this topic of hypercollaboration and really what it means is that when you meet somebody the next time and they're in a similar place than you are don't think about how you're competing but how you can collaborate to create something larger. So having an open market doesn't mean we're based on competition it means we're based on collaboration. This is a very important point it's just not just because the government wants you to compete and make it cheaper and more efficient doesn't mean you're always competing it means you always should be collaborating to achieve that goal. I think this is something we're going to see. So I want to talk to you a little bit about marketing because I think it's important for you to understand when you're moving into offering your care services this may be an interesting angle for you. What we're seeing right now is that we're moving in this idea of selling services. We're moving into a concept of becoming a magnet rather than sort of a loud speaker. So we're creating interesting things that people are interested in and this is why they buy it from us. Here's an example. What people refer to as solo mo social local mobile social networks local services and mobile devices. That's referred to as solo mo. So if you're running a care service this is how you reach people now through social networks not just Facebook but also others through local services and through mobile devices. For example take a simple question if I use your website on my mobile phone when I'm looking for somebody to take care of my mother when I come to your website what do I see 95% of the time I see a website that doesn't fit on the mobile. It's not mobile optimized. So guess when I'm only on the mobile which is now 50% of the time Australians are on the mobile when they're searching I go somewhere else and it's actually really free most of the time it's free or very simple to make a mobile version of your website. It doesn't cost much. So that's a really important step I think going forward. Think mobile first. I mean not in the sense of how people are using it but in terms of how you're being found. There are estimates saying that in the next five years 85% of all internet traffic will be on mobile devices. People are actually looking at your stuff on mobiles. YouTube if you're in the care of business what's better than a video? Showing what you do and how you do it. And of course it's also free. This point here is a really great book written by a friend of mine Robert Bergava called Lyconomics. It's talking about how you do business because people like what you do and how you do it. And they talk about it. And it's really not new but now because of the web you know we have substantial amount of change there. So that's just a couple of tips here on marketing if you find that interesting. I think mobilization is a huge opportunity. Whatever you do it should be mobile. For example if you're looking what happens here is on a very simple smartphone you can create a web page that allows people to actually use your service when they're on the go. So they don't have to look like this when they're trying to look at what you do. Huge opportunity. So give you a short summary and then we'll take some questions and we'll hopefully have a debate. Point one I think getting everyone connected is crucial. And not just technology wise of course also to the actual networks that use technology. I would suggest as I have many times in other places is to make the internet free for the disabled, the disadvantaged, the excluded, and the elderly. And again I'm not saying that just because the internet is so fantastic and we can solve all these things because they're on the internet clearly not. But it's always better to be connected than to not be connected with the exception of the Facebook addict that wakes up at four in the morning. So I think here this is a very good first step to think about as an agenda and makes commercial sense also. Point number two everything that can be connected will be. Our homes, our cars, our database, our health records. This is referred to as the internet of everything. Very scary thought when it's not secure and not private. But nevertheless inevitable like you know the railroad replaced the horses. And the horseshoe makers weren't happy about that. But we have to figure out what we do about this. I mean this is something that's definitely happening. I mean you can already see the city of Los Angeles three weeks ago put about 6,700 traffic lights on the network, on the internet together to synchronize the traffic in the morning and the evening remotely. But of course what they had to do for this is that every single one of those traffic lights has a camera and every single one is connected to a network. So now you can use 6,700 cameras to basically supervise what people do. That's the unintended consequence. So what do we do about this? I think that when everything is connected we have enormous benefits. For example getting data from our patients. They allow you to see what they're doing and how they're doing if they're taking their pills or not. That's a benefit. So that's something to think about. Now as technology becomes ubiquitous which is the next five years. And we're always thinking it takes longer but it's absolutely mind-boggling this speed. As technology becomes ubiquitous for example mobile devices dropping down in the neighborhood of $20. If you go to India you can buy an Aakash tablet an Android tablet for $31. Works just fine. It's not an iPad, okay? But it works fine. We're going to see tablets for $20. So when that happens fast and cheap it will be all about ethics. And you have to be prepared for that. It's actually not about inventing more cool technology which people do anyway but it's thinking about what you can do with these devices and how you can use technology to help your clients people that you take care of and yourself of course. The societal changes brought on by this are exponential. You can't wait. I live in Switzerland where the main sort of motto of people as how do they do business is their weight and observe. This is what we do. We're never first. This is why we have a beautiful country but very little innovation. So when things are exponential you can't sit there and say you know what I'm going to watch this because by the time you're done watching it's already gone three times in the exponential curve and you're too late. So what needs to happen is that transformation is essential. I think Australia should become and needs to become innovation rich not money rich and ethics rich because that's the true value of course of a society and to become sustainable. So about technology we're sort of on this you know on this balancing act where we have to learn it. We have to embrace it. We have to take a look. We have to get inside because that's what's happening around us but we also have to reject this thinking that everything we do can be set up like a giant machine. This is especially true for people that we take care of. They are not machines. We're not machines. We're using some machines to help with that but that's not the same thing. Machine thinking is a real challenge and this will be an omnipresent challenge in five years. It's really about the balance. So business is actually led I think by nonprofit thinking. Now if you're looking around the world basically a lot of businesses saying you know what if we had a really nice ecosystem to function and support our innovation we could be doing great. We don't have to hyper-compete. For example if you're looking at what Google is doing Google is starting hundreds of initiatives based on the sort of ecosystem thinking even though they're also very strong and definitely have an ego right but they're starting things. For example the self-driving car. The self-driving car of Google is not their intent to get into the car business. I mean Google isn't going to make cars because the self-driving car is using data. It's a giant experiment in data. The road data, the driver data, the other drivers you know it's a giant experiment but basically what happens here is that Google kicks off this ecosystem and then other people complete it. The car companies. So sometimes it's good to think about how you can help to build a new ecosystem rather than create your own little, pardon this. And I think the definition of what I call gross national well-being could be useful here. I think it was Einstein who said that if you measure the wrong thing you do the wrong thing. So please don't measure the wrong thing. You know when you measure financial outcome against human factors you always come out short. So think about gross national well-being and what that means and how you can define that. And that will eventually result also in financial well-being. For marketing, bottom line is think social, local, mobile. It's not free but it's extremely powerful. You can send me some more emails if you want to know how to do this or just browse my website but it's quite clear there. So finally, here's a challenge for you. Let's question yesterday's logic and assumptions because you know here's the thing ultimately we know and this is pretty much proven now that what we're going to do in five years, 50% of what we're going to do in five years doesn't even exist today. If you're taking a look at Apple or a Kindle or LinkedIn, many of you are on LinkedIn. I'm sure it didn't exist six years ago. Now there's 280 million people. So it's very likely that in five years you're going to have to reinvent half of what you do. You've got to start somewhere. So questioning yesterday's assumptions, you know, old logic I think it's absolutely...