 Okay, good afternoon everybody. You're very welcome to our latest webinar at the IAEA this lunch time We have a very timely session turning our attention this afternoon to The transatlantic alliance the relationship between Europe and the United States My name is Michael Collins, and I'm the director general here at the Institute of International and European Affairs the IAEA here in Dublin And we're absolutely delighted to be today to be joined from Warsaw by Radik Sikorski to share his expert views on the future of the transatlantic alliance from a European Parliament perspective if I might just introduce Mr. Sikorski Radik Sikorski became an MEP in May 2019 and currently serves as chair of the Parliament's delegation for relations with the United States He previously served as Marshal or speaker of the Polish Parliament the Parliament in Poland from 2014 to 2015 was Minister for Foreign Affairs of Poland for from 2007 to 2014 and Minister for National Defence from 2005 to 2007 so he's somebody with a very deep experience in Polish as well as European and international politics He graduated from Oxford with a BA and an MA in politics of philosophy and economics and he's the distinguished thought-eater and is the author of several books and a regular commentator upon international affairs He previously served as a senior fellow at Harvard University Center for European Studies Before I hand the floor over to Radik just a couple of housekeeping issues of points if I may This full event is on the record and the initial presentation and the Q and A section that will follow You can join the discussion using the zoom dedicated Q and A function in the usual way, which I'm sure everybody is now very familiar with and I would encourage you to submit your questions at any Stage but indeed also throughout the session as they occur to you Please identify yourself when submitting your question your name and your affiliation if Lastly we encourage you to join the conversation on Twitter using the handle at IEA so with that a very very warm welcome to you Radik Welcome virtually at least to the IAEA we wish you were here in person But that's of course not possible at the moment, but the warmest of welcomes to you the floor is yours Thank you very much delighted and honored to have been invited and What a pleasure to talk to you in Dublin in Ireland where so many of my compatriots have found a welcoming home I'm so glad that the presence of polls has not Inspired you to leave the European Union like some other like some other places And I hope they're making a good contribution to your society and to your economy We are living in bizarre times Let me just start by saying that we seem to be at the crunch point of Brexit Which I know is in the center of your attention Because Ireland will be the country most affected by the shape that Brexit takes or doesn't But on the positive side, let me say that at least from my point of view a practitioner of Foreign Affairs, I cannot recall a time in the past At which Ireland Both on the continent of Europe and in Washington was in fact more influential than the United Kingdom By being a member of of the EU you get the solidarity of other members and as we know the US Congress has signaled that The hope for a trade deal with the US is is contingent on On policy that is conducive to preserving peace on the island and we all know what that means So you are a very important part of the relationship between Europe and the United States because your diaspora in the United States is at least as influential and And probably even more numerous than the Polish one The fact that the Delegation for relations between the EU and the United States is the most numerous delegation in the European Parliament Tells you something namely that The greatest number of MEPs still regard this as the most relation important relationship That Europe has with external power centers Which is hardly surprising. There is the greatest amount of trade the greatest greatest amount of Cross-investment and at least until recently it we all thought that we also shared values Values that helped us Help you in the West win in the Cold War and helped us in the East to survive and be liberated To join the the Western family of nations This is In question now because we have the US Reverting to a noisy nationalism and a noisy Isolationism that has its roots deep in US history, but is not but is not what we've been accustomed to over the last several decades I Think this will change because it looks like Joe Biden is Is Get it going for victory, but it should teach us a thing or two namely first of all that the US is really tired of Allowing us in Europe to free ride on the US security Guarantee and we may not like the way that President Trump expressed it But he was telling us something that is a matter of consensus in the US namely that we should spend more on on defense and I can't even blame him on for the way he's done it because when his predecessors did it politely it didn't work and Of course, I know that Ireland is a neutral country and you you are not a member of nature, but but I think it's part of the relationship That I hope We will mend starting not just in January, but even earlier Now I still believe that there are things that we can usefully do together The tearing a Russia that Changes borders in Europe by force Seemed until recently the highest order task that we have in common and that we Europeans can't do on ourselves But reality has leapfrogged this issue and I believe That the overriding issue of the of the geo strategy of the 21st century Is the way in which the United States will or will not Successfully managed its struggle for primacy with China and We've all probably read I hope if you haven't do the book by my Harvard colleague Graham Allison on the through citizens trap and I'm afraid it's very persuasive because There is a problem in in the Far East Namely that what China feels entitled to which is what they call reunification with Taiwan and and and a ring of friendly states that recognize Chinese superiority Not only culturally but also Economically and militarily This concept is in direct contradiction with the American system of alliances and so Addressing your question whether Europe can have a geopolitical role We cannot Ignore this if we don't have a role in this we don't have a role because this is going to be the organizing principle of 21st century strategy and and and on this US and European interests converge, but I'm not identical because those allies of the United States are Friendly countries fellow democracies such as Japan such as South Korea Taiwan obviously Philippines Indonesia India But they are not military allies of of the European Union Or not or any single European state and this has consequences I have just written a draft Proposal for the party in the European Parliament In which I from which I said the European People's Party the ruling party in the European Union Proposing EPP's policy towards China and The big idea is the following that we should collaborate with the United States on those on the majority of things that we agree on such as reciprocal access of our companies to each other's markets such as ending the Intellectual property theft and the forced joint ventures such as screening technology transfers and both outgoing and incoming investments such as Having a Platform for 5g that is not intrusive and doesn't give undue advantage to one side such as properly Respecting rules of the WTO not just to the letter but in spirit Such as Preventing The products of forced labor from being from coming into our Market such as paying attention to how data is gathered from From a population that doesn't have a democratic view Influence over what the state does with those data and so on and On all those things not only do we agree with the United States? We have a conviction that only by acting together can we persuade China to change its ways But we Europeans will only do that to the limit of any armed kinetic Confrontation first of all because we don't have any capabilities But secondly because the European public would not permit us to do it There is simply no appetite for confronting China in that way and There is also the overwhelming feeling in Europe that we cannot do without a An important trading relationship with China which of course constrains our behavior Now to be taken seriously as a geopolitical actor By either the United States or China We would have to do a Great deal starting with Fulfilling what we have already pledged ourselves to do in the Lisbon Treaty that we Are breaching almost every day if you read articles, I think it's 25 and 26th of the Lisbon Treaty Treaty of the European Union We have pledged ourselves that We would from from henceforth Present and argue for our national interests as regards third countries in The foreign affairs council We are not disinventing or overcoming the concept of national interest of the nation states of the members But they should be articulated and fought out and coordinated at the foreign affairs council and After we reach a consensus there We the treaty says we should Loyally support the high representative in presenting our jointly agreed position to the rest of the world But guess what we are not doing it We agree some policies usually on second-order issues and Then members member states continue to Pursue their own national policies in parallel particularly the big boys who feel that they have a global Reach for historic reasons and So there is a sort of lowest common denominator agreed EU policy on the one hand and Then a traditional parallel policy by the nation states and what do we do? We Nationalist politicians do what they what they always do in those situations first They they paralyze the EU level and then they complain that the EU is ineffective If we are to be taken seriously this has to stop But this is not this is by far not enough of course as the European Union we are I would say constitutionally a Confederation with some federal features, but also in their relationship with others They will miss the fact that the Commission until recently represented them together with 400 million other Europeans With the heft that that gave the joint position We are a superpower in that we are also a regulatory superpower But there are other areas where we are Less than the sum of our national ingredients and those areas are Exactly those which you need to be taken seriously by the outside world Which is to say the military dimension and the intelligence dimension You know if you're the foreign minister of a nation state as I was you Can bring to bear the national resources of your state in relationship with other states in In in all the dimensions in which the cabinet of your country interacts with other countries and Of course, it's also the Defense Minister and it's also the security services And if you don't have those you are by definition less influential Further, I would say to be taken seriously We would need to show that Before we tackle far away issues We need to be effective in our own neighborhood Imagine a United States that can't even Manage its relationship with Mexico or Canada this is exactly where we are I Was skeptical about the Libya operation which has destabilized the country and was still dealing with the consequences but what I was was alarmed by was that European countries on their own couldn't even do it and they needed those American Tomahawks and they needed that that American ground surveillance and and and Reconnaissance and intelligence to to even deal with Muammar Gaddafi and Frontex is being upgraded, but it's not enough And let me just finish by saying that we will know whether our leaders are serious about Making Europe what Ursula von der Leyen calls a geostrategic Europe By following the money if you want to be serious in matters of security and defense It's a very expensive business As nation states of the EU we spend about a third in fact of what the EU US spends on defense Depending on how you count between two and three hundred billion euros per annum. It's a lot of money But in the EU's proposed Defense budget the Commission proposed for the next seven year budgetary period 13 billion euros for seven years and this has now been cut by half as a result of the pandemic and 40% of that money is on military mobility So that you know troops and tanks could move around the continent which is entirely compatible with nature you cannot have a The Defensive posture on your even just one perimeter on the southern perimeter For six or seven billion over Seven years, which is to say for one billion euros per annum that is not serious So in conclusion, let me say that I like the sound of the words that our leaders make strategic autonomy The geopolitical Commission But I will believe that they're serious Only once the member states Start removing themselves from some of the issues that the EU should be doing by itself And only once they allow the EU To have a defense budget worthy of its name Thank you