 We have Tim Ord on the line. Is that true Tim Ord? Hello Yeah, yeah, we're here. Fantastic. So guys every Tuesday and Thursday Tim Ord comes on the time of Brian show It's the Ord-Oracle.com We deeply appreciate his analysis and it's always extremely insightful. So go give him a check out that's Ord-Oracle.com and Tim I am just getting your chart up now. It's gonna be one moment while I do that That's right. No hurry. Perfect. All right. So we have chart one up. This is the SPX Yeah, okay, SPX and Second window up from the bottom is the SPX VIX ratio and this is a weekly chart and I think I want to point out on this is This chart goes back about mid 2017 and normally when you get a higher high on the SPX on a weekly time frame and you get a lower High on the SPX You got a divergence and usually those that intermediate term highs and the last time that happened was at the high of October 2022 the SP's made higher highs and that ratio SPX made lower highs and we've been going on the all the Oh, the light pink areas are those divergence in the past and they all came at worthwhile highs You know, even the October or the March 2020 COVID crash it predicted that it warned that decline was coming but on the Current time frame from about 2000 mid 2020 or actually early 2023 I got the blue areas every time the SP's made a higher high that ratios made a higher high even on the current uptrend going into the Late March early high that ratio is made higher high the market has since pulled back But what I wanted to point out on this chart If the SP's do turn up and go back up and make a higher high Which I think they will and that ratio The SPX VIX ratio on the weekly time frame makes a lower high That'll be the time to worry So I'm thinking this decline is probably just going down to fill the gap that happened around that 500 on the SPY I think to fill it that needs to get to By 496 area on the SPY, I think that's probably what's happening here But there was no divergence of immediate term scale on that on that last high So I'm thinking this is kind of a normal pullback in an uptrend. So let's flip to a chart to Fantastic and be one moment. All right, we have chart to up right now Right, this is the a swag breath stress indicator. It's a mouthful, but what you like the bottom window is the NYSE advanced divided by the total NYSE Stocks with a 10-day average and you get down below minus four, which we are and we did here like a day or two ago As usually that's an oversold condition and what you like to see when you hit 0.04 you like it Go right back to 0.06 within 10 days now if you do that We haven't done it yet because we're just hit that blow it up I think we hit 0.35 on this recent decline and But within 10 days of that thing turning around which has actually started to turn around so the town has started now But within 10 days that needs to get back to 0.6 and if it does That would open the door for another impulse wave to the upside the red lines on this chart Or not horizontal, but vertical are the times when this swag breath I call it ZBT Zag breath stress indicator ZBT is just easier to say and I marked 0.4 with the red line then when it got to 0.6. That's the blue line and during the base period of 2022 part of 2023 he had three ZBT there then he had one in October of 2023 that kind of set off they ignited that rally that from the October of last year to the current rally So now we did we didn't get a point, you know blow 0.04 within the next two weeks if we get 0.06 That suggests another powerful rally's coming if we don't Then a market could get a little mushy or going forward. So I have to wait and see how this Rally kind of turns out, but it's something that we're watching for so we got two different things going on here you got on page one or grab or chart one the Weekly SPX fixed ratio on the next rally and needs to hit a new high along with the S&P's but does that the uptrend on a bigger time frames and scale then on graph 2 Which is the as lag breath stress indicator the next rally needs to get to 0.6 On the to show that you got strength to keep going So if either if both of those don't settle we're probably at best in a trading range There's a little thing to like It may go away or something like that. There's no saying so well that will that be a Possible this year possible depends on those two charts So let's kind of wait and see I see we're running out about a time here I don't we got to get get to chart three or not But yeah, well, I can I can bring it up as well. It's gonna be a second But yeah, I can I can see it a little bit how this You know, you have the ES mini trader right now, you know, we're at least at 5,050 I think the spy is trading what right under 500 so at 499 right now You know a lot of this run-up had been going because of the ideas of lower interest rates Obviously that has changed a little bit But I could see this also being kind of a general kind of overreaction like in this oversold area But Tim or to stay right there folks will be right back with Tim ward of the oracle and just a short minute Welcome back folks is Jacob shoot feeling in it for Tom O'Brien We're with Tim ward of the oracle again. Here is the website. This is order hyphen oracle calm Go give him a check out Tim We're on chart three right now. This is TLTV Vicks. I'm actually interested here. What's going on with this? Yeah, this is a I do a lot of charts that major acceleration of different type indicators Because if the market's just slowly moving up or slowly moving down that trend's going to continue But if you get kind of a short, I don't know violence the wrong word, but acceleration either up or down Chances are you get to a reversal pretty quick, and I and this is a TLT To a bvix ratio the bvix is a bix of the Vicks So it seems to work pretty well. I've used this chart matter of fact last October I think even on your show that I was noticing this indicator was going up as the SP was going down and that's a light blue area back in October of last year and I waited till Friday because a lot times Friday you get signals that seem to be pretty effective and That actually picked a day of that low right at the bottom there and this indicator is the one I Used to pick out that low. We got something similar going on right now usually this indicator On a short term time frames goes up and down with the S&P's and so but over the last three four Or up three days. I think it is even today Even though the SP's are off just this midge here. This this ratio is going higher This is just a daily TLT of bvix ratio, and so we're probably entering in some sort of a low And if you look at the top window, it's a 10-day average We're actually at the rate of change on a 10-day average Which is two weeks and next one the lower is the RSI on a 10-day average, which is also two weeks and Both of them hit oversold here about three days ago and both those indicators Or the indicators have turned up even though the SP's have not so we're probably you know Messing around with the low here. How low is low? Most likely let's go to chart four. Yep and most likely I got a The blue areas across the chart going horizontal are gaps. We got a gap above us We got a gap below us and to really fill that gap. We need to get to 496 I think the markets is just trying to fill that gap for some reason Yeah, I think in this is probably going to do it But if you look up the second window up from the bottom This is real curious here normally when the mark goes down the VIX goes up And if the mark goes up the VIX goes down over the last three days The VIX has actually gone down with the SP's going down not counting Actually counting today, I guess would be but that's unusual And also when the VIX gets above is upper Bollinger band usually you're looking for a low and that happened about three days ago and We closed above of the bid or we'll close on them Bollinger band two days ago Yes, they were below the Bollinger band the mark was down and also the VIX was down and it say again We're down and the VIX is down again. So this is not Start of a big decline. This is the ending of some sort of a Correction phase here, but we still may close the gap at 496 We do it today or you know probably not today could hit it tomorrow and that probably will complete the decline So every day on there is a lot of open interest on puts and calls that around that 496 area on the SPY is in the futures. That's right around 500 on the June futures So that's probably where we're gonna head So I have to bear with it We do have panics in the ticks and trend the 10 days right at 1.2 Which is a number you need to have a panic bottom the five day is around 1.35 or at 1.37 That's the bottom window So but can the market feel push lower today and tomorrow? Yeah, probably till we probably get that gap filled I got along here That's three four last Friday be exact because I did get Panic in the ticks and trend on a on a daily basis and I thought we're gonna start bobbing up in that process and we actually the camera broke through but I'm kind of just gonna wait it out because I don't think this is This is not a top of any consequence. This is the top of Another trend that's probably gonna break to new highs If we're lucky, maybe still this month if not probably in May and from May from May. We'll have to wait and see what The ZBT says and what the that SPX VIX ratio says So I don't know what that was going to happen up there I think the bigger trend in general this year will be an up year and I thought we might match last year Part is, you know a 20 some percent and that still may happen Depends on just how much panic we get Let's flip to chart six real quick. Absolutely. All right. We're at chart six Start six. My reason why I think this rally is not done. There's really no top Of a basing period and this is them. This is the SPX monthly chart If you notice back in October of 2021 there was a divergence the SPX VIX ratio on a monthly time frame made a divergence for the SPX made higher highs that ratio made lower highs Currently we made higher highs on the SPX that ratio made higher highs So if we turn around go back up and make new highs and that monthly chart makes a lower high on the SPX VIX ratio I think trouble can be found, but I'm thinking we're still get to 5,700 At some point this year Because there's a head and shoulders bottom and a lot of times these these projections on the head and shoulders bottom Do give accurate? Readings where the market can go and if you do the measurement on this head and shoulders bottom formation does give a projection of around 5,700 on the SPX and we only did that 50% retracement so I think that that that move we had going into the bottom of 2022 was just a Solvation phase and now we're in impulse wave So I don't think a top of any quantified or consequences being made here So but it's kind of ugly on a short term basis, but the bigger time I think and are just fine I don't see any big trouble coming here yet So you can still see that 5,700 at the end of the year Yeah, yeah, I think we'll reach it, you know, I don't exactly what time I reach it I don't see anything You know forming here on the bigger time frame, especially you get the VIX that The SPX VIX ratio does a really good job warning that you're going into any minute term high because the VIX starts going up Before the actual top happens and that hasn't happened yet. So Oh have to wait and see but so I'm actually still bullish here Yeah, I'll probably have to wait to pot three 496 on the SPY before we turn up I see I think newer highs are still coming Fantastic. Well Tim or stay stay right there. It's over for more charts and over Folks we will be out right back Welcome back folks. This is Jacob Schupe. I am with Tim or of the old Oracle We were just looking at the potential movement for the SPX going forward Tim. You're still with us Yep, I'm here and that's that's good a church seven. Yeah, so Far as the SPI, I think they hear me a term trends up the short term trend I think it's bobbing, but we may fill a gap at 496 and then from there We'll take another shot at rallying because we got pretty much a lot of indicators and Are set up but you know the market this is gonna probably go to that, you know 496 area, but yeah, let's start seven Yes, what can you explain to me because I think this is the first time I'm saying this with the pring inflation index is oh The inflation deflation. Yeah, I say it says peering or Pring. Oh Pring. Yeah, Martin Pring Created this indicator He's a technical analysis guy like like me if you Google mark I think his first name is Martin Pring and And and he created this inflation deflation ratio and that's always yeah, I just was curious never I'm sorry. Go ahead. No. Yeah, I was just saying I was curious Yeah, yeah, it's Martin Pring's. So, you know, I He had in place. Well, you know, I'd combined it to and create a ratio out of it and seems to work pretty well So if this is a yeah, the monthly ratio going back to like 1990 or thereabouts and so yeah, that's the top windows. They are side for that ratio The ratio the second window down The middle windows monthly XAU the bottom window is the XAU gold ratio on the monthly time frame That goes back to 1984 But what I want to show is where we are on really on the bigger time frames and so when this ratio Inflation deflation ratio when it's just rising, it's usually bullish for the market when declining. It's usually bearish for the market It's not an ideal indicator, but it does work. Well, and we're up. I circled in blue The inflation deflation ratio on the monthly time frames and it's up against that trend line kind of a dotted blue trend line If I break that trend line I Yeah, it's kind of hard to see I don't know how to really do it because I wanted to Present the bigger time frame where we are in the bigger time frames and but yeah We're up against that trend line that's dotted trend line coming down from connecting the highs going back at 2022 highs if we break that high it's probably going to be a significant move in the gold market Extra for gold stocks that'd be the XAU. I even got a little trend line drawn on the XAU there Haven't drawn it real well, but we're up against a trend line on that XAU in the bottom window Is another important trend line and it's also up against the trend line going all the way back to 1996 so it's like maybe 90 yeah, 96 and We're smack against that trend line right to to get through that trend line It's it's around point oh six and we're point oh five seven so on a bigger time frame We're right at that trend line and a break of that trend line, which is a 29 year trend line It would really change the dynamics of the gold market This is pretty much situated for the gold market not gold though It's predicting what the gold stocks will do not so much what gold will do But if you break that line a 20 year trend line that would probably open the door something similar to what happened at the 2002 Lowes It would be significant. I Don't know it it would be significant would leave my opinion We'd at least get back to have another trend line drawn across their horizontally on the XAU gold ratio It's around point one seven five My paint we break that trend line coming down from the night 1996 highs We most likely would rally back to that trend line at point one seven five the horizontal trend line, right? Yeah, yeah that horizontal line, but that'd be my guess where we would go It would be and probably a fairly powerful move because when you break a 28 year trend line as it's usually It'd be the opposite what was happening here because the market really hasn't changed a lot Part is that ratio on the XAU gold ratio more or less it bounced around You know it's like about point oh five to point oh eight looks like and really going nowhere since that two thousand 16 it kind of just stayed in the narrow trading range After a narrow trading range usually you get an impulse wave after an impulse wave you get a narrow trading range So what this implies Once you break that trend line, you'll probably get a big surge and that surge my opinion You may find the resistance of point one seven five because that's where some previous flows were in the past and To what that would indicate in Gold stocks itself it'd be Well, we're say we're point oh six just round off numbers you get point Point oh eight or point one eight is six times There's no six be three times between there to be a 300% move and even with an increasing in gold as well You know the exit user gold stocks would have to rally it at even higher rate as well as opposed to say yeah That's impressive actually you're right. That's not even gold changing right gold staying exactly where it is and just gold Stocks would be a 300 point move in gold stocks while gold goes higher So something significant in this vicinity is happening right now. Yeah, I keep pointing that out Because has it broke that? No, we'll break it. You know at some point. Yes, you know, we'll break it next week Don't know we'll break this year. Most likely The hard part is you know when it will you know when it will break it. So let's look at you know where we are Far as one will break that line. Sure. I think I Don't know. Okay. Here's a chart number eight. Yep This is the sugar time frames and this is an inflation deflation ratio on the weekly time frame and we did get it so How to get signals on this indicator is when this indicator when the RS eye of this In place deflation ratio on a weekly time frame not a daily on a weekly time frame falls below 30 and closes above 30 So all those blue lines across there are times when the RS eye hit 30 and turned up Which is it I got the blue arrows pointing to those times the last time we had it here I think with some time in March and so we rallied pretty strongly off those lows and we're not even near On a weekly time frame of any hive any concept when it's normally get up RS eye up around 70 or so you'll get a high and those red lines are times when you got high So we're on a bicycle right now on this ratio And if you notice if you look at the bottom or actually the second window up, which is a weekly XAU I had some bold circles on those those The bold circles are times when you get the weekly RS eye About the same price as Before so we got a signal back in October of last year pretty close the same price where we got it again this year but it's kind of us To RS I buys in the same spot same thing happened in 2018 and 19 you get pretty close to same prices double bicycles at the same price and you had it the 2016 low we got a bicycle Nothing really happened to get another bicycle and market really took off So I'm thinking the double bicycle in the same price is going to look lead to I think a major impulse wave Yeah, totally. Yeah, Tim stay stay right there because I want to hear the rest of this especially with chart nine as well Folks will be our right back Welcome back Moses Jacob shoot. We are with Tim or of the order Oracle We were just looking at the potential moves for gold what is doing regarding some other indicators I want to say to Tim we have a short segment here, but If you're new to listening to TFNN, and I know we have a bunch of new people And you ever really want to learn and like dig into what Tim's talking about as well on our services page on TFNN com We actually have a few webinars that Tim had done and he goes through a lot of the different indicators He looks at and and why they matter to him. Anyways, Tim, we were looking at a chart eight right now All right, chart eight. Oh, I think I'm gonna say about this. This is this is kind of an intermediate term chart These are multi-month I forgot I added I think it's at least six months rallies normally Some are shorter, but most of them are six months or longer. So when I flip to chart nine, yep So this is just a short term, you know, basically the blue areas are windows two indicators The bottom window is the 18-day average uptown volume Indicator and next higher window is the GDX 18-day average of the advanced decline So as long as those two indicators stay above minus 10 the minus 10 the magic number the uptrend intact and so We kind of in March looks like a first of March there give a buy signal and that remains on a buy signal And we kind of rock it up here and to me it looks like we're probably in a wave four of an alleyway five up I got it marked there on the chart Right right below the closed window there as in blue And I think we're screwing around with the way for right now I don't know if we're completing way four way four is complete But it does look like since those two indicators on bottom are staying well above Minus 10 this suggests that the markets just internals are still strong. They're not declining They're going sideways up around plus 20 range both of them That tells me probably another strong rally is coming, which will be way five now will break the new highs How high I don't know yet, but I sure can base is the GDX still on a buy signal Tim Thank you so much for joining us Obviously the amount of effort you put in these charts is wild and they're so informative folks Go visit him at ward hyphen oracle.com folks. Thank you so much for joining me today and listening to myself and Tim ward I hope you have a great rest of your day. We will be back tomorrow. Take care