 Good day, fellow investors. In this video, I want to show you five charts that show that we are close to the next recession. So, let's immediately start. The first chart is the unemployment rate in the US. And you can see that we are now getting close to 4%, which is very, very low. For the past few times, every time the unemployment rate went below 5%, a recession happened in the next few years. What happens when everybody is employed? Wages start improving. Companies can't hire new people to grow, so there is higher competition, higher costs, and there is not the possibility to really grow that easy. So that's normally in an economic cycle. In the late part of the economic cycle, unemployment is very low, but this means that a recession is getting closer and closer, unfortunately. And if you go back to the chart, there is no stability. It's not possible to keep an economy stable at a 4% unemployment rate, what the feds want. It never happened in history. Either it goes down the unemployment and the economy grows, or it goes up. There is no stability. Everybody who tells you about stability doesn't know and doesn't understand economics. Neither the fed. They're lying because that's their job. The second chart shows the consumer debt payments as a percent of disposable income. And now it's already close to the levels where it was in 2007. We, as consumers, we can take only so much debt, but the more debt we pay, the more we are spending now and renouncing on future consumption. Future consumption is necessary for the economy to grow. This can probably go a few 1% point higher, but then a recession is definitely close, especially if the Fed increases interest rates that put more pressure on the debt service payments. The next chart, the effective federal funds rate, the Fed's interest rate. The Fed starts usually significantly increasing the interest rate just before a recession. And the red arrows show how. Just before a recession, the Fed starts panically increasing because in order to help in the recession, they need higher interest rates so that they can lower them. If they don't have higher interest rates, they can't go. They probably will have to go below 0, minus 1, minus 2 in the next recession. So they have started increasing them. You can see that those increases always lead toward a recession sooner or later. So again, a negative that shows that we are in the late part of the economic cycle. Number 4. Whenever vehicle sales start dropping, the economy starts contracting. We all love to buy new cars, but you don't need to buy one every year. And especially if there is no growth in the economy, companies don't grow as they can't hire new people because everybody is employed. They don't need new cars. This starts to take toll on the economy, on manufacturing, on industrial production. People start to get fired and you have the circle reverting. That's nothing bad. A good recession here and there is good to eliminate the inefficient companies and let the real good productive companies grow. Nevertheless, again, the line is in a downtrend. We'll see for how long, but we are close. The fifth chart is the most useless recession indicator. This is the best economists can come up with. And you can see here that they tell you it's a recession when it's already a recession. They cannot predict it. So wherever you read something that someone can predict a recession and you can sell your stocks before a recession, that's impossible. Perhaps we already are a recession. Then you need two quarters of negative economic growth to be in a recession. One is normal. One can be due to seasonality. But will that be again the case in the next quarter? So it's practically impossible to time a recession. The only thing you can do is know that we are in the late stage of the economic cycle and prepare according. I want to focus more on economics on this video. Tomorrow I'll talk about your portfolio, portfolio positioning in relation to your investing goals and the late part of the economic cycle. For now, let's go back on the macroeconomics. We are close to a recession. Perhaps it will happen this quarter. Perhaps we are already in a recession. Perhaps it will happen in the next five years. But we are close when you look at the economic cycles. It's natural, it has to happen and it's good. Economy goes up, it falls, clears out the bad and then it grows again to higher levels. It has been happening since the beginning of time. It will happen again. And the funny thing is that when everything seems perfect, when everybody starts thinking, oh, this time it's different. There will be no recession. We are the closest to a recession. Please subscribe tomorrow with a video on how to prepare for a recession, how to protect your portfolio, how to invest in the late part of the economic cycle. I think there are still two years, three years to listen to Ray Dalio. So we can still be at ease, enjoy the returns of the stock market. But nevertheless, we have to start thinking about being prepared. Thank you for watching. I wish you a great life. I wish you high returns with no risk. And I'll see you in the next video.