 One great. We're live everybody. Welcome to the channel digital asset news or more importantly DCA on a Friday So first of all, thanks everybody for stopping in for the live stream Let's talk about just what the heck is going on with this crazy market before that Let me introduce some people if you don't know them to my immediate right, which will now be my immediate left I think it's been for a minute of the crypto verse If you don't know then and James's channel is there's a link in the description you can check that out And of course, we also have James from invest answers here to answer some of the more difficult questions And then I am just here to just be a little quick moderation, but Today there's good stuff Because we need to get into it. Let's be honest q1 has not been kind to us in 2022 So the questions are as such with all the good news That's been going around and you can take that from a plethora of sources Biden executive order or strike payments institution money coming in James on a lean on you for that one Why is the market sucking? It just seems to be dropping or at least going sideways Then also I just want to ask what's the sentiment out there because for your channels I mean I watch both you guys and I see I leave the comments and I see some things But what do you feels like the sentiment out there and are the people that were maybe the get rich quickers are kind of Leaving out and are we capitulating also? I want to ask you. What's your outlook to finish out q1? Is there any kind of balance to be had are we looking forward to q2 and what could be the catalyst to actually make this thing move and Lastly, let's talk about some whale games ball number three, then I will lean on you for that. So gentlemen, welcome Thanks for coming in again. I appreciate it Thanks for having us So let's get into it shall we So let's talk James on a start with you with all the good news and was we've been talking about this? I mean today. I mean just had Stripe came out with their access to 180 countries 3 million plus Websites and billions of dollars when they reach globally On top of that the Biden executive order where it was a pretty positive tone then all these money and institutions coming in yet What do we see? Well the market itself is at 1.8 trillion and I think we've actually fallen below that So why is this happening? Why is it going sideways? And what do you think's going on? Well, I think you can't look at Bitcoin in isolation You gotta look at all the markets and we saw a lot of crazies of happening with commodities We saw a big move towards risk or facets from risk on but there are a couple of bright spots And there's been a ton of good news But it's just the timing is bad black swan events wars do not help things obviously and a lot of uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty but if you look at the Bitcoin itself It's definitely behind the scenes OTC buying is happening You see that by the drainage off the exchanges every single day tons of coins leaving Coinbase tons of coins leaving finance etc and Hedge funds are coming in big money's coming in and they're buying in as like a repeated record at this stage But we're going to see some big action in Q2. I do believe now Also, every cohort is accumulating with the exception of those between I think 10,000 Bitcoin 100,000 They haven't been accumulating they've been actually shedding a little bit But everybody else has we're talking the 100k plus wallets and everything the 10k has been accumulating And there's also some other good stuff coming like the volcano bonds in El Salvador There's also big There's a couple of gray clouds as well There's this big option bets for a 60k in April Bitcoin like $5,000 bets were made as well as $4,000 bets at 50k so 50k looks very possible for April but at the same time over the next two weeks There's big bets for 34k Bitcoin So I think we might have a little dump before the pump which is typical behavior I don't see us getting to 34k and So that's kind of what we see but if we do get And that's your question if we do get peace and it looks like we've made some inroads there today this morning If the regulation is coming the spot ETF now there's rumors from Raoul Paul that April could be the spot ETF approval date I don't believe that at all. I thought I think it's going to be out further than that like late summer or September and Fiat has changed forever. So Who trusts fiat anymore There is a couple of little gray clouds, but a lot of sunshine So that's I don't want to sound like a Hopium dealer, but that's what I see Yeah, I know like I've I've seen I've seen your videos And I of course have watched Ben's and it seems like you're one of the ones I think that the institutional money is like right behind this big paywall and they're just almost there and I'd love to I'd love to believe you I want to believe you James I do but I've heard it for so long and I think a lot of people have as well. I think I mean When I look at I'm like why can't there just be more long-term investors? But I think there's more people there's more things behind the scenes that are going on But I like where your head's at. I hope that you're right. I'm proving that you're right But we'll see how it goes Ben Same thing to you my friend. What do we got here? Yeah, cue. I'm not I've never really been super optimistic about Q1 as you guys know over the last couple of months I think what I when we started Q1 I was like, okay, you know best case scenario we say neutral But good chance is going to be bearish. I think neutral is getting back to 46k in the next few weeks That's that's at least where the quarterly open was I'm interested in some like a quantitative perspective Like looking at at monthly returns like for Bitcoin like discretized monthly and and one of the interesting things is that After after red January's we've always seen double-digit gain February's and that actually happened again this year It didn't seem like it was going to happen because it seemed like Bitcoin was actually down going into the last day of February And then it pumped 15% on the very last day But so so March is kind of like September and that it doesn't tend to be a great month I believe like seven out of 11 marches have been I've been read But so I'm not really expecting anything any fireworks in March, but April April actually does tend to be a good month for crypto I mean, you know, some sometimes you have to take this stuff with a grain of salt because you know It's a really thing. I don't I don't really know but Seasonality can sometimes be a thing You know, you'll often see, you know major moves by Ethereum at certain phases and Bitcoin at certain phases And so I am a little bit more optimistic about April then than March right, so I think that I think that Heading forward, you know, I'm always on talk about the downside risk at the downside risk is always there But I'm still feeling kind of neutral like, you know, like I mean like I don't I'm not really seeing Bitcoin pumping to a new All-time high in like a month or two But I don't know I mean I feel like we're at a very uncertain time right now We've just been training sideways for for the last what month you like hat I mean, yeah, I mean first of all, we've been training sideways for a year now if you can 60k range there. That's obvious completely true But even recently even after that we had a pretty brutal downtrend for you know, eight weeks ten weeks in a row And then we've just been going sideways for a few weeks now. So Yeah, I don't know. I mean I think that I'd like to see what happens at the end of Q1 Why before I really take a stand on what I think Q2 is gonna be about man, we're but we're so close, right? What's the date today March 11th? Yeah, I mean we're I mean really really driving home at that point and we're very close I and the one thing I'm gonna ask you guys about this is so Q1 is about is about to expire now I'm gonna go into Q2. We don't know where it's gonna go But I'm always worried about because once in the United States as far as like April 15th That's tax time now for a lot of for some people. That's a good day because they get some money back but not for a good amount of people and Like myself or I'll be paying a ton. So what do you think real quick about April? How are those months statistically in the past you recall because when I When I took a look at I think there was like a couple couple of years where it was just brutal and a couple were just like sideways Sure, let's take a look Let me see if Monthly performance heat map Yeah Yeah, I don't know if it's gonna let me um Actually, you can You can Do you know you know the website, right? Let's see It's the one that I the app died into the cryptiverse.com into I got so many app into the block app into the cryptiverse. Okay. I got you Here's my dashboard. Hey, let's let's hey, let's show Can we do a quick peek behind the scenes for your website ben? Go to charts because I I want to get this question that you just asked go to charts Wait, wait, wait. Can I show this if you go to charts? Okay, too late. All right charts Charts it is Yep So everybody real quick we're behind the scenes with bends into the cryptiverse and actually I linked it in the description So if you want to check out of ben sight, uh, it's in there If you scroll down to the um Yeah, keep going Uh, actually just scroll down the the actual chart so I can see them There's a table with all the monthly returns and you can kind of Um, see what I'm talking about. But there it is the the one in the middle of monthly returns that one Yeah, so I mean there you can kind of you can get a quick glimpse. By the way, you should Dark mode if you go to the top right, there's a little moon Yeah So here here you can see what I'm talking about right like march A lot of times after red january is you get a green the green february march doesn't really tend to be that great But april is usually pretty good and even the three times that april was red It was still it was barely red like it was only like It was only like two or three percent red So that's the re like from a from like a statistical perspective like i'm a little bit more optimistic about april than i have been for march Like if you look at march We see negative 24 negative 32 negative 19 negative 15 percent and then so far this month Is negative 10 percent as well. So I wasn't as optimistic about march and little feel it a little bit better about april though Okay, so this reaffirms what I was saying Q1's kind of sucking and it's going to suck for a while. So And maybe april's gonna be better. I like may this looks pretty good Yeah, and and anybody who has significant money knows how to tax plan. They're not going to be surprised Oh, I owe a quarter of million dollars in crypto taxes. They'll be prepared for that So they're not going to be dumping on the 14th of april That dumpage could have actually happened in march historically. Hensel the red in march Right now So, yeah, okay, let me bring let me jump back So if you want to check out that link in the description, you can check out ben sight and go from there. All right So that we'll take care of That first part Let's go into this one the sentiment and I think in the beginning. I mean gosh, we were writing a pretty good high sentiment For what was going on in the q4 of 2021 and then moving into 2022 And that's just around the corner just around the corner. How is the sentiment been on your channels for what you guys have seen? Uh, ben since you're up there. I'll start with you Yeah, I've actually seen a pretty big shift recently, which is actually it has me more optimistic At least in terms of in terms of like the sentiment one of the things that is is hard to manage is when when we Initially go down after a a mania phase it can actually be quite challenging because there's a lot of people that get really upset And I mean everyone gets upset to some degree, but there's some people that express it in a different way Um, and I find that that's a nice way of saying it I find the people that express it in a in a different way Uh, they they tend to leave the cryptoverse after a few weeks of of it being read and and unfortunately You know if if you can just stick around for the long haul It it does tend to work out for the people that just stick around What I've noticed in in the sentiment is that there's a lot there's a lot fewer trolls, right? There's a lot people, you know a lot fewer people like complaining about things I think there's a bit more You know, I don't I don't know if I want to say apathy, but to some level there's like You know, I think people are somewhat apathetic like we a lot of people recognize that crypto is the future And then it's likely going to trend up with time, but who knows what it's going to do in the next couple of Months I think we're sort of getting to that those those people that recognize that look in the short term It's really anyone's guess but in the long term it is likely to trend higher And I think that's sort of the the core audience now So it's kind of like the audience that you would have had and say, you know in in prior In prior markets where where we weren't going up like crazy, right? I mean these are the people that hopefully they keep sticking around they they stand again the most over the long haul um So yeah, I've noticed uh some some sentiment changes Over the last over the last um couple of months and and it's funny because over You know, I even if we have future corrections I I have a feeling the people are here today are probably going to stick or I mean if you're if you've made it this far You really have no reason to not just kind of keep hunkering. I think Yeah, if you made it this far you got your medals James, what do you got on on your channel? Is everybody pretty like Happy gleeful just happy to be there be around it. They're like man. This is awful To be honest, there's no there's no problems on the channel per se the problems tend to exist in twitter That's where the angry people live But I'm not going to go there right now, but mathematically if you look at you know There are people called tourists that come in and think oh, I made a little bit of money in shibu, you know and then They start playing and thinking they're god and they lose everything We 70% of those people lose all their money in a very short time frame and the duration of that time frame is actually 90 days So it's funny if you if you take You know a hot exuberant market like 2021 um Some people make some money fast But it doesn't take them a long time to lose it and be kicked out of the market and that leaves a bad taste in their mouth And I've seen a couple of those and you hear about them. It's like, you know lost everything I've never touched in crypto again or never touching assets, but most people are mature enough to know that You know, it's good to garner as much knowledge as you can from people who've been around the block for more than three decades or whatever Or experts like ben and yourself and crypto For a long time and just stay the course Especially when you see all other pillars all other asset classes Hitting the tank and that should give people optimism. So again as ben correctly says If they've been through it, this is as far They'll be there for the long haul. So totally agree Yeah, what's the phrase when you're going through hell just keep going I guess that's kind of like what it is here But you know, it brings up an important question Like you said that people come in here and they get to you know, you have the dogecoin millionaires as I call them or the shiba inu Marvelous ones Do you think sometimes that people have to go through that? They have to go through the rug pulls and they have to go through the nonsense where they think that they are the gods And then kind of lose a ton to actually get on the on the right path Did you think that no no no one should be be subjected to that and I'll I'll I'll stick with you james and that one Yeah, this is an interesting one because um, I think I think the younger the investor is the more they can risk And I also believe you want to make your you know Hard lessons learn them early and have those scars that you can take with you for the rest of your life That's been my principle Um, yeah, and I think I think there's a lot of learning there. So for example, you get rubbed once and you're young That's never going to happen to you again You're not going to be like our poor friend. What's his name? Um with the basketball team. I always forget his name. Oh dallas maverick's owner. Yeah, he got rubbed twice He's a billionaire so it's like you can stick with whatever tv shows and basketball teams and stuff So, uh, but but I think for the young people out there. They're new You get smacked you get kicked in the teeth. Whatever you want to call it Get back on the horse And but just do your homework being much more diligent around what you invest in and that's the big lesson as we said 2022 is the year where you do not want to be in garbage coins and I used to say 95 percent are garbage It's now 18 000 tokens 99 percent of them are slow multi-level marketing rug pulls They are not it's not going to go on anywhere. So then I'm going to ask you the the same thing But I'm going to have you bring us back because I was listening to your your whale games video And bring us back to when you were in grad school 2012 2013 somewhere around there. I think it was and you were talking about how You know, you had been investing and then you all of a sudden you're like I would really like to get into this market because it would just had a huge slide But you couldn't because he spelled your money. So is that like the great learning lesson when you're like shoot Maybe I should do something differently Yeah, it's a it's a great learning lesson. Um, and and I think it sort of gets me a reputation of being fairly risk-averse, you know It's just like it's sort of like lessons learned the hard way and and actually 2013 was brutal because I mean again, I was a grad student. It's not like I had that much invested But I watched whatever I did have invested which was a lot for me at the time because I was again I was a grad student. I was on a graduate student stipend Um, I I watched it drop 90 percent, you know, and I'm sitting here thinking like well I mean it's going to take forever to get this back, you know And then but after watching it drop its first like 70 percent or something I was like, all right. Well, this is a good time to you know to put in what I have Watch to drop another 50 percent or so And and sort of I sort of learned the lesson back then, you know, it's always good to have cash on hand No matter what, you know, if you have a some type of a position at least draw from it don't don't completely deplete it Um, and that was a lesson. I I sort of employed that in 2018 because I thought 6k again was a good a good price in 2018 And and then again the floor fell out. I mean again today It doesn't really matter. Um, so it's the consolation prize. But again, you know, is that going to happen today? I don't know like I don't know if we're going to go down I don't know if we're if we're not but I I sure I sure as hell have cash on hand in case we do So yeah, that's sort of the lesson lesson learned the hard way I'd rather I'd rather have have a position to or have some cash on hand to continue to dca Um, then to you know be left without any dry pattern to not take advantage of of dips like that Yeah, and I gotta agree and like even even on my channel, I'll hear people who get uh Who get scammed and I mean we all talk about the scams. Don't you know Be careful with the emails make sure that you're not, uh, you know putting your wallet in danger and and and uh Downloading these these malicious apps go to the source all that stuff But I still get people say I got you know, I got scammed over I got screwed And I'll always ask them the same thing Well, how much was it and a lot of and a lot of times it's like well It wasn't that much very rare is it like my whole life savings and that's awful But I will tell you all those people that got screwed over and scammed I will tell you right now They will not they will not happen to them again. And that's just one of those things where they just sometimes the Pain is the best teacher. All right. So we talked about what's going on now Let's talk about what could potentially go on in a little bit of time. So here's the big question Which is this What's your outlook to finish out q1 which you kind of talked about? But as far as q2 comes around april may june How are we gonna fix not how are we but how do things get to into a better place? Where do you see things going and what could be the actual catalyst to get us to that next point james? I'm gonna start with you because I know you I know you've got a lot of data that that points to institutional money. So Let's let's hear some It's it's it's definitely happening. I bet my bottom dollar on it But anybody here in this channel no problem But there's just so again a lot of good things on the horizon. The problem is we're gonna get through the dark clouds first Dark cloud number one the fed meeting. It's going to be 25 basis points They can't rattle the markets more than that plus the soap behind the curve. Anyway, that's true But and the year year yield curve is inverting gvp rates are going to zero So hopefully march will get rid of that final dark cloud and open the gates for april That is always historically a pretty good green month Um, so we'll see my biggest concerns though are the true bitcoin narrative. Where is that going to go? so for example, if you look at The risk of stagflation, which I know is coming that means recession is negative inflation is high It's the kiss of death for an economy. That means money will flow into safe harbors and Extremely high growth high profitable names too on the equity side on the crypto side I think it's any matter of time before people are going to start looking for a way to store large volumes of fiat Where else are you going to put it? You can't put in gold can put in bonds etc. Etc Maybe you can buy some palladium, but that's more volatile than meme stocks. Um wheat the same thing we so It's just a strange world But we do have some of the good stuff like that that i'm really excited for that bitcoin bond in al Salvador That's going to be nice and a couple of other things and when I look at the big bets made out again on the option side That's positive too Hey, hey real quick. Yeah Real quick before we get to ben talk to us about that those those volcano bonds in al salvador Why do you like them so much? Why do you think that's going to be a big a big push? Well, what what I'm most excited about is obviously the bond market the traditional bond markets toast Right if these guys pull this off. That's a game changer You have a bitcoin based bond fund. You have the ability for people to not only bring money in Hold it for five years pay a small coupon And get some heavy upside down the line if you're looking for alpha Returns there's not many places you can get it guaranteed And this is an exciting place to park and take that five ten year risk This could be a game changer for the whole bond market and the ability for cities Like alzante or wherever they're launching that bitcoin city And to do those types of things and if it is a success You know, it's gonna happen next it'll be a domino effect There'll be maybe a village in lugano switzerland, which will do the same thing and then some place in Haiti Who knows where the sky is the limit You know the imf will come out and go we don't approve of this. There's no way this That's also the big change we've seen happen with the fiat world Nobody trusts them central banks anymore Nobody trusts you the bank of england ecb the fed No, we trust fiat after what happened in canada russia, etc So it's just the world has changed again. I always say we saw 10 years of change happen in 12 months with c19 we've seen 10 years of change happen the fiat in two months And everything is just moving so fast. It's a very exciting time to be alive. Yeah. Thank you fed reserve All right Ben same question to you. What do we got man? Where are we going? You know, I think As much as I like the news and stuff and I want to believe that these things will have a big impact on price. I honestly Don't think they really will impact the price I think that generally what I've seen is in bull markets people don't care about bear bearish news and in bear markets People don't care about bullish news They have a way of making the price pump or dump in the short term But the overall trend remains the same so like even even in late 2020 or early 2021 You could have you could have found some bearish news. There's just no one cared about it You know It's like today, like, you know, like over the last three months when we've been in a downtrend There's been no shortage of good news for bitcoin. You know if if creating bitcoin on the news Uh was actually possible I think that there would be a lot a lot of more richer people that I clearly it's not the case because we look around And there's been so much great news for bitcoin Over the last three months, but it's not reflected in the price, right? It's not reflected in the price So what I generally think is that what we really need Is not news or anything like that. It's just it's time is what we need Like we need time the fair value of bitcoin according to our logarithmic regression fit to all data Is currently at around 34,500 that's like the fair value 34.5 k And we're currently trading just above that right about $4,000 above it So we're slightly overvalued when when thinking about it like that If we if we're at the fair value, then I mean it's it's a reasonable investment to make Or even even slightly above it like we are now slightly below it the further we you know, if we just stay sideways For months at a time Then we're going to become undervalued because the fair value is is monotonically increasing, right? So the fair value of bitcoin continues to go up with time Therefore longer we don't go up with time It only makes the case for bitcoin like as an investment that much stronger. So I would say there's not really any single bit of news It's going to do it what it is is going to be time And and the say like the extension from the fair value if we get if we get too far extended down below it It's going to be a great time to buy bitcoin. You could argue even now is a is a decent time Like it's not the best time. I'm like I don't say that lightly, right? I mean I again I I love bitcoin and I've seen it during undervaluation phases and during overvaluation phases, right? Oh, yeah, it's like it's like a moderate time Like it's it's not the best time you can imagine But it's also not the worst time you can imagine it's sort of like in and between phase So really the the next thing that I think will kickstart bitcoins run is is just kind of spending a bit more time Allowing for some of the longer-term moving averages to slowly catch up to where we are Allowing the fair value to continue to increase. I mean the fair value By the end of this year should be closer to I think 40k or so I mean, it's only going to go up So I mean imagine what it's going to be in 18 months and then in 24 months and then 36 months It's just going to keep going up and then eventually we'll we'll shoot back about it And then at the time there's going to be all sorts of great news that that accompanies it But remember There's going to be bad news too. It's just that people don't care about the bad news in a bull market Just like in a bear market. They don't care about the good news. Yeah, I'm going to challenge you on one thing Ben though, I mean bitcoin and other risk on assets has had the kitchen sink thrown at it, you know war FUD you name it bands On and on and on It's still there and it's still making higher lows. So You say At 38 five say hypothetically 38 five you say it's not the best time to get in but the floor is maybe 35 now So it's an 8 9 10 percent away from the floor versus the upside going back to 68k So the way I look at things is The downside is far smaller than the potential upside. Would you not agree? Yeah, I mean, I I agree with you that um, we are putting in higher lows I I just like I again, this is one of those things where it's it puts me at a weird position because it's like I want to see bitcoin go higher like I would actually benefit more if it goes up not if it goes down I just we all do in late 2018 It was also technically putting in higher lows and then we still dropped 50 percent, you know, um Even in even in uh, march of 2020 we were we were moving higher our january for every march We're moving higher and then we all woke up one morning and our our entire portfolio was down 60 percent So I I don't mean to say it like it the mark the charts look bad I don't I mean from like a daily time frame Things look relatively good in terms of higher lows and that kind of stuff. It's just to say like You know, I mean like would you rather like buying bitcoin at at $3,800 two years ago? Was was a very undervalued area because the fair value was you know, two Two or three times higher So right now the fair value we're around the fair value. So basically it's like, uh, it's a moderate risk Like it it could pay it could play out if you hold it like we did in mid 2013 Or if the floor falls out like it did in 2018 and and 20 uh late 2019 and in 2014 Then you know, then it becomes like a a an even better risk to take on because then you're undervalued compared to the fair value There's no guarantee we make there and I agree. Yeah bitcoin has had to pitch and sink thrown at it Right. It's had everything thrown at it and it has held up fairly well But what happens if it continues to get more stuff thrown at it for the next six months? Like how long can it take before it can you know, that's my concern And that's exactly my thesis and I always look at both sides And I think one of the dangers is If you have the scar tissue from 2018 You keep going back, but this is a different ball game now. It's completely different and in 2018 3% of the money in bitcoin was institutional today. It's 80 percent It's it's it's absolutely a different league and I think It the volatility has gone down a lot more And the the supply is a lot more finite than ever before a lot less a lot more scant So I'd say so again, I keep on thinking What are the downsides here? Will we ever see 20k again? I'll bet my bottom dollar No, we'll never see 20k again unless it's world war three Right, we might not and for full disclosure like I I am buying bitcoin at these prices like I You know, it's one thing to say it could go down But what I am doing with my money is I am I am buying bitcoin on a weekly basis but I also recognize that Like it could go down further like I I want to be I want to be more optimistic and say like it can't But I I've been in that position so many times where I thought it couldn't and then it did So I I don't want to say that it can't is I guess is my point Yeah, well, I will say let me just to piggyback one james said about uh institutional money and I don't think it's like everybody loves it that it's it's here I hate it. I hate it right now that there's so much institutions right now I know everybody's like oh, but it's great because they're going to have so much things here. Look if anybody's going to manipulate anything It's going to be big institutions and just look no farther than the futures So I know like everybody's talking about it's going to it's going to be great everything else Well, if they're here and there's so much money to be had Yet here we are with the price and I know at some point maybe it'll come up But man, I got to tell you I was watching I was watching this this video. It was roger veer from 2012 And the exact same things we were talking about right now was the exact same thing He was talking about back then he was talking about ETFs and institutional money flowing and everything else. I know everybody wants it I hope I hope You guys are right. Well, it's already it's already happening. Just look at look at your great state of texas. Look what's happened there 30% of the hash rate with by the end of this year will be out of texas that some people say it's ridiculous Well, sure, but job. I mean that's great for job creation And you know what hash rate was supposed to follow price as I remember and that was like one of the other big things that that came about And we kind of I mean we're kind of making our way through that this is And I do agree with you. This is a different time because I mean there is this is much Even if you take a look at like like the four-year cycles or lengthening cycles those other things I mean everything is a little bit off. So When we talk about when ben and you talk about time, I think that's one of the only Once one of the big things to actually see everything out. We'll go from there to tell people a very funny story I built a model in 2019 Uh bitcoin was like I think four thousand six thousand dollars I can't remember and I was sharing it with people friends and family and stuff this thing I guarantee you it's going to be 108,000 by the year 2030 It's like and I said I will guarantee you this price by 2030 and they thought I was crazy And again, but it was heavily heavily sandbag model is based on very simple adoption and adoption curves again It is a completely different ballgame if you asked me back in 2019 Would we be where we are today with adoption and al Salvador and everything else regulations? I'd say no way maybe 2025 So we've we've accelerated a lot and and also the macro backdrop of where we are anyway enough on that Yeah, that's one more thing like if if this if we would have the president of the united states Signed an executive order in 2017. We're gonna lost our minds We were we were big on like when kiddie parry Put these stupid things under fingernails and everybody that was like the big story for the day. I kid you not So before we go on into the next the next part, which is I think one of my favorites this wall number three I found it fascinating But before we do that talk real quick because like we're in this sideways slump Ben, I kind of know your position. Uh, so I want to start with you How do you what are you investing into right now? Are you doing any kind of alt coins? I don't think you are and tell us why Well, I mean if you if you pull up a historical snapshot of corn market cap on January 17th 2021 and compared to today the price of bitcoin was basically the same Ethereum was 3200 right cardano was at $1.50. Solano was at like 140 150 $25 what what do these markets have a tendency to do even though bitcoin can go sideways all bitcoin valuations can bleed And look, I mean if if you are smart enough to go all in on luna then congratulations, right? But the problem is that we don't know we don't know which alt coins are going to out form bitcoin ahead of time And so because I don't know I'm not smart enough to know which alt coins gonna out form bitcoin with bitcoins and downtrend I only I only focus on on on bitcoin because again It we have a way of rationalizing. Well, it's not really down that much Um But all you have to do is you go back and look at the price back in january when bitcoin was the same exact price that it is today And and almost every single alt coin in the top 25 or probably top 100 You know almost all of them were at higher prices than they are today even though bitcoin was at the exact same price So I say, you know, if you're just dcaing your cost basis You're gonna be over the last several months as I as I've been saying I've I've been staying the hell away from alt coins ever since bitcoin closed below. It's 21 week. EMA They they tend to underperform bitcoin if you look at the ethereum bitcoin valuation. Yeah historically um Every time on the weekly close below the 20 week estimate the weekly close below it for bitcoin ethereum's ethereum has always Out of like seven or eight times. It's always underperformed bitcoin From from measuring it from weekly closed below the bullmark swerve band the 20 week estimate So then weekly open above it whenever bitcoin gets back above it during that time While there could be local times where ethereum outperforms bitcoin if you just take it from point A to point B Bitcoin has always outformed ethereum during that time time and time again So I say, you know, I mean, I don't I don't really care if if the alt coins are are gonna Give us a scam pump on any on any given day All I care about is the fact that most of their valuations against bitcoin are leading right now And furthermore a lot of their valuations against the ethereum are bleeding as well. So I as I've said before I think It's time and we look we said this in january as well, right? It's time to focus on the blue chips um If you want to take some risks on small coins, you can but you should know that I mean if if this if this type of market continues If in three months bitcoin is still at $38,000. I can practically guarantee you I can't guarantee anything I would I would strongly There's a good chance that the alt coin valuations are lower than they are today If bitcoin is still at 38k in three months because it'll it'll be a choppy market. It'll be a choppy market perfect james Now let's talk about running into the burning building for all coins When everybody's running around And you got it. You got to do these things. Where do you do? right now Like I think our I do believe our buying opportunity was Both on january 24th and february 24th. That's all that is the bottom of the crypto and equity market And that's where like I was 30 cash and I deployed everything. So I'm out of cash right now Um, and there's not much I'd actually buy, you know, we had some things that have gone up gone down The volatility has been crazy in both markets But I think it's getting steadier now as we see the light going forward again fingers crossed for some type of resolution some type of peace in ukraine And a good fed meeting and then it'll be off to the races. Yeah, I do. I do believe a relatively high conviction I gotta I I've got to agree. I mean on that one for sure. I know ben. It's it's all about time I think if we can just get some I mean look what happened when good old elan musk came out and said hey We're gonna put put things in the bitcoin and paypal right around the corner It was like a rocket fuel if if we can get a little bit of a piece and then we can get actually the cftc In the sec in the occ to actually meet together and go This is how we're going to regulate and it's not too heavy-handed. I think we're off for the races again And for the fazby if the fazby changed their accounting rules Yeah, they would eat bitcoin like baseball cards I think that that would that would change the treasury game as well You know, there's this tech company sitting on a hundred billion dollars in cash Melting away at 15 to 21 per year and now and now what they've decided to do is said, okay We can't invest the cash anywhere. So we're just going to make acquisitions with it So they're not even using their stock to make acquisitions using cash like google did a big huge one a few days ago so I I should say with the occ coin stuff One thing to consider is that there's certainly not one strategy that suits everyone So like I think people that are looking to preserve their wealth during this risk-off time that we've been in They probably want to be heavier in the bitcoin For people who are looking to be riskier and try to create wealth and I can understand I can understand being a little bit more risky on on oc coins because there's always a chance that you That you time the bottom and that you you actually make more money than the people who are more risk-averse It's just I think the longer you're in crypto. I think more people just After a long time after so many years of seeing so many oc coins come and go, you know, like I Eventually eventually I think most people just sort of say all right I just want to focus on on the blue chips for a while and stop stressing about which oc coin drama this week Yeah, and the but there are some select areas where you you can still do well Like for those that got some bottom fishing in on luna Around 46 47 that went up 120 percent. I think in about 17 days. That was a huge move So there is still some Effervescence out there on the market if you can time it Yeah, and I gotta and lastly before we move on I gotta it's it's just like what we're talking about people getting scammed You're 18 19 20 and you're putting everything into bitcoin probably I mean not financial advice just financial opinion probably a good good way But if you're that young you probably could take a little more risk And I'm not going to tell you what to do but I mean look I mean there's some pretty great projects out there that will probably outperform bitcoin at some point But really it just depends on your Your risk preference your risk tolerance like that's the bigger thing to think about because we can't tell you what to do All right, so off of that one Let's talk about it wall number three Ben i'm gonna start with you because this video You were the one that talked me about it first and I was like I don't know what that is So break it down real quick wall number three. Is this the ultimate guide to crypto buying and selling? right now Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, you know, we saw wallet number three by the way for those that don't know wallet number three No one really knows who it belongs to there's been a lot of speculation about it But they currently hold I believe 126 000 bitcoin. Let me see what they have right now. They have 126 341 bitcoin Which is currently worth, you know over just approximately five billion dollars But one of the interesting things is that you know the last time they they sold off 1500 bitcoin was was actually at 67k You know and you might say well 1500 bitcoin. That's a lot. It is a lot You know it is a little it's time but for them it was only like just over one percent of their stack You know, so it's not like it's not like they they they sold everything They just sold a little over one percent and then they actually started accumulating again just like a week or two later But what's interesting is we we've actually seen them recently They have some pretty good timing on on some of this stuff. So like for instance During some of these drops They were basically buying bitcoin throughout all of january At you know at 40k at 35k at 33k And in february they they they were buying as well But they stopped buying bitcoin on february 3rd at 37k and then it was like crickets We didn't hear anything from them and then on march 1st about a month later. They sold 1500 At at around $44,000. Now, I should say there's one caveat We don't technically know if these are buys and sells they're just transfers potentially But just taking it for what it is. I mean it's on chain data take it with a grain of salt to some degree But on march 1st, we saw 1500 bitcoin go out again And on march 1st, you know, I mean that was more or less the local top at around $44,000 And then what's interesting is they started buying bitcoin at 38.2 k About six days after that which again was another more or less local bottom We went down to 37 k They bought some more a few days later at 38.5 k So I I think it's interesting because I don't really you know I don't really fall into the camp that I've heard some people say that you know because institutions are here that we can never see the market go down You know 50 again, which we've already proven that wrong right because we've already gone down more than 50 two times now Um, that's happened But I I think to some degree, you know people think that institutions can never Never lose money institutions lose money all the time You know hedge funds lose money all the time and it's because of the carry that they have to take from one year or two Another is one of the reasons why most hedge funds aren't successful And they have to close it down and start another one because we'll never catch back up on the losses They incurred one year so big like large money is not always accurate But we have seen that this wallet at least locally over the last few months They sold they transferred out a decent amount of bitcoin at at 67 They bought through january at some lower prices They took some profits when it went to 44,000 they bought again when it dropped back down So they've actually been doing a pretty a pretty decent job. So maybe before you buy or sell bitcoin You should ask what would well number three do Well number three do hey ven real quick Where can you can you pull it up on on your site or do you put it on on bid info charts? So where do you get it? I just have it on bid info charts I mean, I'll probably eventually get everything all this stuff We're slowly but we have like five software developers working on on the website building as anything We can imagine but this will eventually be there I think but right now you have to go to bid info charts calm and then if you go to the top and you go to The rich list and they actually have the rich list for other coins to like light coin bitcoin cash I don't know why anyone would care about those but if you So but you can also you can also just look at it for for bitcoin By the way, light coin and bitcoin cash are great examples of coins that do nothing But bleeding against bitcoin are feeling over the macro scale. So the opportunity cost on them is too too high Yeah, hey real quick. So this is this is the info charts. I brought this up and then you got your in your rich list Where's the we're on we're on bitcoin right now all number three. What do we go again? I forget. Yeah, just go to the third one It's number three there. You can see Yeah, the third wallet You can see that um That they most recently had had Yeah, you can see they picked up 412 bitcoin Recently 318 but you can see that transfer of 1500 out. Was it 40 writer and 44k? Okay, which was basically the local top, you know before we came back down. So Um, and actually if you spend a lot of time perusing this website There's a lot of girls that I've noticed like though you'll see like a lot of bitcoin go out and then like Uh, like a day or two later You'll see a similar amount of bitcoin come back in but it'll be like a marginally higher amount So it seems like maybe they they sold their bitcoin Then they waited a few days and then just bought it back for a slightly cheaper price just to marginally increase their stack Yeah, I did a video on this one. I gotta tell you there was there's not a lot of sales It is a lot of accumulation a lot of accumulation actually there's We oh right here. Yeah, I look at the price 67 Yeah, we've we've analyzed the data on this guy I mean to be fair though, so it's a point out like if you if you look at just higher on on november 12 They did buy 11 1100 bitcoin back at 64k. So it's not like they're perfect Um, I'm not so they're they're not they're they're simply not but it one of the things it does go to show Is that like no one knows what is going to happen in this market? Like absolutely no one um And and some whales by the way if you can trust the on-chain transactions Like some whales are down like 300 million dollars, right? So if you thought you were having a bad day You know, there's some guys that are down potentially 300 million dollars because they've been buying it at 50k 60k for so long and that was at 38 000 dollars um But if you yeah, you can like scroll through all the wallets and you'll you'll find all sorts of wallets There's a lot of wallets by the way Just for just very quickly. There's a lot of wallets that bought a lot of bitcoin in in december of 2018 And then they they didn't do anything for a year and a half I um, maybe two and a half they they they bought some in in december 2018 and then They bought again two and a half years later. I believe in the summer of 2021 at 30k right around 30k So they bought it like 3100 or 3,500 didn't do anything for two and a half years And then bought more in the summer of 2021 and those wallets have not done anything yet They haven't been doing anything since the summer of 21 Son of a gun are james what you were about to say something like think I'll cut you off Yeah, there's there's about uh, we have analyzed the data this wallet number three guy And uh, it's interesting. There's about 600 trades that matter And it looks like from the time that they got in And they were learning so this tells us this is a newbie to the crypto space This is not an og that has been doing this for a long time because they would know how to mask their wallets and transactions Unlike this group or guy or individual Now the average the average chunk of bitcoin they sell per transaction is about 1563 the average sell price since the history is about 37 and a half thousand The average buy is 1119 coins at an average price of 28461 But they made all their money. They invest about three billion. They made two billion But they made all their money because they bought 40 000 bitcoin at an average price of about 5400 dollars Yeah, and that's that's where they made the killing And but their timing has gotten better. But boy was a crap for a long time They'd be selling at the wrong time and buying at the wrong time up until around march april 2021 Then something happened. They got a little bit better So they're they got better at layering in and layering out And what's very interesting is how and benya i'm sure you've seen this as well How they've gotten much better at playing the short term choppiness You know interim term tops and it was also very bullish as well to see the fact that They bought at 38 to 38 fives that ties into the thesis that we have higher lows going up You know, we had 33 then we had 35 35 five twice 36 and now it's 38 So that's a positive sign that we are in this higher low type environment, but overall fascinating to watch And they're getting better and better at with their trades And dca layering and layering out all the time Do you see that? I I find this really funny that they're like, okay I'm just gonna dabble at three dollars and then 20 bucks and I'm and then 41 million Unlike my ninth trade or something like that. That's hilarious. No, it looks very much like a somebody managing a fund for I don't know if it's an oligarch or if it's Zhang yi ming at a hong kong that the guy's worth 50 billion who owns tic tac or if it's ray dalio or larry page or larry ellison But whoever it is to be able to drop three billion means they have to be worth at least 50 billion That's my thesis or the fund has to be worth at least 50 billion Yeah, I thought it was nancy polosi's husband, but I I guess he hasn't had 50 billion dollars. Okay Maybe rest in peace. I think he died last week. Oh my god, awesome So that leaves us for it. Thanks so much guys. So let's just open it up to the questions And uh, we'll go from there also. Thanks to all the moderators Call me out kate when mullet. I appreciate it so much. So now let's get into uh, the cues and we'll get out here It's friday man. That took a long time. It's almost five o'clock I thought we had nothing to talk about Yeah, I think we I think we answered it all. Good job everybody. Great job Is eth classic gold 2.0. Hey, what is they dropped that name for eth 2.0, right? Now it's something different. Uh, it's beardy day. He's the funniest guy beardy day funny Let's see This might be good What else do you need for you to hold? I guess if you're looking at things to hold leading tech companies are building crypto rails and our government just told us they see crypto as an opportunity to stay a global leader Well, I guess I mean if you take a look at the news thing I mean if you look at look just the news you would say to yourself This is a no-brainer, but if you take a look at just the time as goes on I mean, this is it. I think we we talked about this in length. But does anybody want to add onto this point? Yeah, again, we've seen Five years of development happen within 12 months. I believe you know the so-called india effect. I think Nothing but positive ahead. I was extremely relieved to see the government taking their stance so all goodness and the world is changing and and Traditional finance is ripe for disruption. And I think whoever is advising the u.s. Government knows that You know, I don't know what's I would think that they would be a little bit more Responsible in there how they do the actions as far as rolling out these regulations But it seems like it's Kind of like a free-for-all. But I mean, I will say it was good. They didn't just shut it down and go We're gonna be aggressive like uh, Elizabeth Warren kind of wants to be they really did just pink. They just bring into The best parts of the government to say let's all figure this out and not just go a little bit too crazy even uh, even limits is part of that all right, so I don't see like there's no questions just everybody loves ben and james Okay, that's about it. And they all hate peter shift. Whoever that is. I don't know who that is So let's see Yeah, I think that's I can't say that uh, oh where'd it go Oh, here's a question. This is rob fellow taxon here. Where do you get apy and stable coins? This would be a question for you guys too block fine cells. He's don't allow it in texas uh die safe alternative so um, you can put it into A voyager they give you a nice yield. I think it's between 9 11. I forgot for usdc. So that's where I put mine I For celsius, but also remember i'm from texas, but now I live in portorico So that's uh, that gives me some some serious advantages over some other things too. So what do you guys think for? Good yield if you do that. I don't think benny. I don't really do that much I don't I don't have any specific recommendations. I I do I do dabble a lot in defy. Um, uh personally um I I do but I I I don't recommend anything because I I know how easy it is to get rugged in those projects and I don't want to be associated necessarily with any of them. So, um I don't have any specific recommendations, but there's plenty of centralized platforms and these specialized platforms that you can use Gotcha, james. What do you got anything that you do you even do that stuff? I just trade I I dabble a little bit But mostly just trading and one of the concerns I have if it sounds too good to be true It probably is you know people offer 70 percent 50 percent 20 percent apy Just be very careful or make sure you understand the underlying asset you have again What's in here and the company he calls it ponzi nomics So it's all it's all it's all fake, you know So just be careful what you're invested in if you can get just straight six eight ten percent on usdc Usdt ust to kind of take it but everything beyond that be careful Yeah, and then we'll wrap it up with this because it's getting late How do you guys track capital gains tax to make sure you aren't actually losing on a winning trade? Simple calculation apps tips tricks. What do you guys use ben start with you to even well, you don't really sell that much um Yeah, I mean I the last time I really sold a lot was back in early 2021 Got rally. I mean the balance Was was um pretty difficult. I think um Yeah, I mean there's there's actually a lot of apps out there that you can use like tons of crypto tax Platforms that you can use and and a lot of them just simply have like calculators It'll show you you know, what what are your what are your capital gains? I mean, I think anyone in the united states has to consider the differences between short-term and long-term capital gains Like you don't want to take a huge hit on on say a bitcoin position in short-term capital gains unless you're absolutely convinced It's about to go down like 50 or more Because even if it goes down if it goes down 15 percent Like if you told me bitcoin's going to go down 10 percent tomorrow I still don't know if I would because I don't necessarily want to you know Deal with all the tax implications or anything because you got to go pay the taxes on on the gains and everything or Or yeah, I mean whatever it is and um So yeah, there's plenty of apps. There's there's plenty of crypto tracking apps I've used plenty of them. I think there's a lot of good ones Just google it. I mean just google crypto Google tax platform and you'll find like probably a hundred different platforms that'll provide what you're looking for Yeah, and I'll just tell you like there's a link in the description. I use crypto trader.tax They have a free tracking software and you can just put all your trades into direct api. It's pretty cool for that James, what do you do use anything or just because I know I mean you trade a lot man. You trade a lot so Yeah, well my brokerage accounts handle all of my capital gains. There's a special embedded capital gains Platform in there and for crypto. I use an old-fashioned spreadsheet Makes sense easy enough. It's locked down and I don't necessarily want to plug my my trades into some public api And then this is the last one because someone did it To super chat uh, so underneath price if we get 20k bitcoin if that happens then What if I mean first of all let's say it's if it happens We're not saying it will happen, but if it happens So if bitcoin goes to 20k, you have to I mean, where do you first think about you have to think about a bitcoin Can go to its prior all-time high a theorem could go to its prior all-time high, right? So if if you see a 20k bitcoin Then that means 1,400 dollar ETH is in the cards because that's their prior all-time highs So I would say I mean salana. I don't I don't really follow salana as much But I mean right now it's at like 80 bucks or something Um, so I mean if if the floor falls out, I mean if bitcoin is able to drop another 50 percent Then you generally assume that all coins are probably going to drop worse So I mean if bitcoin's at 20k, then you're probably you're probably looking at a at a sub 40 salana Or maybe around a 40 salana, but I mean that would basically be again if bitcoin goes to 20k, which there's no guarantee And ben's and james is doing calculations in the back as you're talking Ben beat me to the punch. He's at 40 bucks. Yeah, you know, I I do believe um as discussed yesterday But a lot of the winning layer ones are very actually undervalued considering The amount of transactions are processing when you traditionally when you compare them to traditional banks asset management funds Etc. They're really for the amount that they're processing. They're actually quite undervalued So there'll come a time everything runs in cycles right now Right now. There's just a huge dark cloud hanging over a lot of the alts It's kind of bitcoin season. Um, but that'll all change. You just got to wait be patient And then the winners will run away. Yeah, just be patient. If you don't like the price right now It's like the rain in Puerto Rico. It'll change in five minutes. So look that's it for today everybody Thanks for stopping by. We appreciate it. Remember Ben and James channel like we found the description. Also, you can find Ben's website app dot into the cryptiverse and also James's Patreon group also linked there as well as a youtube channel. So check those out and that's there for today So thank you gentlemen. I appreciate it We'll see you on the next one. Awesome. Thanks. Well, thanks. Thanks. Bye