 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, August 30th, 2022. I'm Chief Meteorologist John Hansworth for Longmont Public Media. We have our first quarter moon, Saturday, September 3rd. Looking beautiful in the evening sky, go out for a walk. The sun is active in the southern hemisphere this week. Stuff in the north went on around, there it is, around the land. So if you're in very high latitudes, you could see some aurora. Looking at drought conditions, things get better from the previous week to this week. Going all along the mountains in the I-25 area, you see drought-free conditions. So fantastic. It's going to be very dry and warm for the next seven to ten days. So it's going to get a little spooky, but we'll talk about that in just a moment. Looking at it nationally, still the rains are coming in from Arizona to Texas. So a lot lessening of drought conditions there. Not much has changed in the west. Rainfall was definitely less this week. We see some areas I got along Longmont-Denver, Fort Connery, where almost nothing fell. A few areas on the eastern plains, the mountains got a little bit of rain, but the widespread inch to two inches or more, not visible this time. For fun, looking at the climatology from April, May, June, July for severe weather. Here's August, third, fourth week. And that is the first week of September. And you can see, yeah, we can still get some severe weather. And it is actually forecasted for Wednesday. We see some stronger storms out there. Probably for wind is the main risk. And a chance of conduction back over the mountains. I-25. But then it's gone. The next day we have maybe a chance of conduction down in the southern part of the state. That sneaks up into the mountains a little closer on Friday, but that's about it. I have a 10% chance of showers or something. So for the forecast map, we see not much happening on Wednesday except storms near that low. We have on the next day Thursday, nothing around Longmont area, and high and dry on Friday. We do have fires up in the Pacific Northwest in California, so that will cycle around the high, giving us a moderate amount of smoke. So we'll have heat, dry conditions, and smoke. Didn't get it all summer, so that's really good. But we're getting a little bit here at the end of the season. Of course, previous years when everything is super dry, we had fires into October and November, so that's not the condition this year at all. We do need to watch with temperatures in the 90s, quite a good deal above normal now, and winds picking up on Friday might have some fire watches going. So speaking of normals, something happened at the Weather 5280 site. Nothing's updated for quite a while. I sent them a support note on that. So we don't have the normal meteor ground here, but the thermal temperature goes from 84 to 82, and the low from 54 to 52 over the next week to 10 days. Looking at Tuesday into Wednesday's water vapor satellite image, you can see it's just staying south of us. Even Arizona's dried out a bit. Here's that shortwave coming in that's creating a chance of severe weather in the northeast, part of the state. And the picture is basically this, this huge ridge. And yes, we have north winds on the side, which is pretty low, but the ridge is pretty close to us. It's really suppressing convection and keeping temperatures high. So it doesn't help with dry areas in place as well. A tiny bit of moisture here, and that's going to maybe interact with that shortwave, but overall we're below normal and precipitable water. For Friday, this is the next time the pattern changes. It's a ridge all the way through the week. A trough finally does approach from the west, Wednesday, Thursday, and starts getting close by Friday. I also have a tropical system down here coming up over Baja, California. And with that comes some deeper moisture. It's still not great on the eastern plains, but the mountains are getting moisture. We're going to track that in the animation. So let's take a look at this high. Keep an eye on this high circulation center right there. Yeah, it's just there. Here we are, it's Friday and then Saturday. And it's now pretty much over Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Las Vegas, for Monday, Tuesday. It really doesn't change much. It morphs around a little bit, but not. Here comes our trough finally on Wednesday and a Thursday. Here comes that hurricane. I'm sure it will be. It doesn't exist now, it's just seen in the models. And the moisture for that does kind of head for our neck of the woods. We're going to see what happens to it in just a moment. So this is pretty much the pattern with the moisture to our south. We have abnormally low temperatures south of us. Our cold front comes down the plains, but not much comes back here at all. We're going to Sunday and Monday, and we're right on the edge of the abnormal heat, but we're definitely feeling the heat. It's Tuesday, Wednesday next week. Here comes that hurricane. It starts pumping a lot of moisture into northern Mexico. And then that tries to come across. So moisture, water vapor, satellite would be what this would be looking at. This is precipitable water in the model. Here's an earlier tropical system that skirts by. We are really dry here. Look at the browns over Colorado. So we are below normal in a lot of atmospheric moisture. This is into Monday. And now Tuesday, some moisture tries to come surging out of the Gulf here. So we got a little bit above normal. Here comes that vigorous hurricane. Whether it forms or not isn't even known. The model thinks it will. And where it actually goes, its intensity and all that has to be seen. There's the moisture flooding right past us. It kind of goes into southeast Colorado, west Kansas, and that's where the loop ends. So I don't really need to show this. There's that shortwave at the beginning, and then we stay dry all the way through. No need to go through it. Because we're at 50 to 80s down, having to look at a little broader view to see future precipitation. The next five days, very little. Maybe this little band through here, southeast of Denver, yeah, Colorado Springs area. And then going another five days out, the South Central Mountains get some more. But it's not great. Look at all the water in Texas and Oklahoma. Just colossal amounts. We have 9, 10, 12 inches of water. So where they've had drought and heat for most of the summer, they're switching around to cool and probably flooding. So I'm calling for 90s, even upper 90s up for the weekend. Very, very low chances of any precipitation. 50s and low 60s at night because of the dry air. They have not come out with a newer forecast for September, so I'll just briefly show above normal and below normal precipitation. And that's all we've got this week. So, if you've got more other updates, LongmontLeader and BroomfieldLeader.com, and great local news source. This has been chief mural of just China and Zwerth. Keep looking up.