 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your humble, lovable and squeeze-abley soft host. As always, we'd like to come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. No, no, listen. Oh, there it is. Okay, so what do we have? Well, we're back to flat after being down, what, 35 points on the S&P cash. Certainly looked like we were coming into a low from options when you look at the options curve. Not expecting a huge move up here. I think we could bounce around from about the 2850 five-ish level on the S&P cash to maybe a little higher than we're at now. Maybe we'll get up to 2900. I suspect that we kind of get back and retest this level in a handful of days, maybe by next Wednesday next week, setting up a run into the end of next week. One of the reasons why is I've figured out how much more money IPOs are going to suck out of this market next week. Generally, we get a bunch of IPOs come out about mid-month, and maybe they raise a billion, billion and a half dollars for a bunch of companies that you've never heard of. They go off, and maybe in 10 years you'll find out that they had a cure for cancer, but a lot of speculative companies, and you don't hear a lot about them, they raise maybe 100 million or maybe 200 million. They couldn't go borrow that money from a bank because they do have something that's probably got a one out of 10 chance of ever making a dime. But if it does make a dime, those dimes are going to be billions. So a lot of IPOs stuff out there, just stuff you never really pay a lot of attention to. Maybe it goes somewhere, maybe it does not, but it's smaller stuff, 100 million, 200 million, a lot of 50 millions. But what we have now is another 5 billion next week, after 12 billion this week. So we continue to see a huge drain. As I suspect, a lot of people think that they're getting to the cash register at the end. A lot of this movement over the last day or two from the break off the high, maybe options expiration related, I think it certainly is. I didn't think that we would get as much of a bounce in the afternoon as we got today, but I do think that we could consolidate out around in this area, maybe 15 points lower than we're at right now in the S&P cash, maybe 15 points higher on the S&P cash. But I think it's going to take a little while to digest this pullback. What I would like to see in my dreams is that the market kind of slowly sells off into next Wednesday. A lot of people get hyper short this market, and then we get a really big rally, maybe Thursday or Friday next week after those IPOs are done, because that's kind of the windows kind of shut for May now. Going into vacation periods, you don't get a lot of IPOs over the summer, or you certainly get a whole lot less. There may be a couple more come by, but I don't think it's going to, the kind of $5 billion and, well, this week, $12 billion, they literally got sucked out of the market. And when we talk about those numbers, remember, that's what the Fed was pulling out every single month, or now is $20 billion a month. So we're awful close to that already for IPOs. Most of these companies aren't going to make any money anytime soon. Of course, Uber came out today, and last I looked, eh, it's trading a buck lower than its IPO price, got down to 42 bucks. But these guys did everything in the world to get the thing out the door, and that's always a bit scary. Of course, Lyft's not looking that good since it's IPO. And there are probably some fairly good reasons for it. Last night in committee in San Francisco, the birthplace of Uber and Lyft, they're talking about massive and more massive taxes, as you should in California, should tax literally everything until it's gone. That's always the way to prosperity, just being a little bit cynical there. But certainly, they're already looking at that. Other cities now that it's become public and it's got all this money, everybody's kind of looking at them going, eh, maybe Uber looked like a taxi, but you know now that I kind of squint at it, kind of looks like a piggy bank. And we can get a lot of money from those guys. Anyway, Uber bought off a lot of the malcontents by giving them up to $24,000 if they've been driving for them for a long time. A lot of them are just going to get $1,000 or $2,000, which is still a lot for someone that maybe makes an extra $500 a month driving for Uber or Lyft. So a lot of these guys kind of stayed away. You didn't see the mass protests that some at Uber were talking about. It is problematic though, and that is that they did something for a while that drove costs incredibly lower. And the question is whether or not they're not going to end up being higher than the old cab system. And a lot of these drivers have quit Uber and Lyft in the last few months because they really tightened it up. They had books to look as absolutely as good as they could going into the IPOs. That's generally a bad sign for the forward side of the IPO, because then they have to go back and fix those and adapt to market conditions, not just kind of be able to push people around for a couple of months and get into that. We'll have the tech insider. I think I had more calls or emails about talking about fuel cells than I've ever had on that tech insider segment on anything else. So we'll do the first segment on fuel cells instead of batteries for electric vehicles and other things. And we'll talk a lot more about that maybe the future. I think a lot of people that saw that saw the articles out earlier over the weekend and this week about BMW and the German manufacturers getting together with the Japanese and Korean manufacturers for fuel cells. So we'll talk about why and how that's changed and that fuel cells pretty much deliver everything that you go to and get from Walmart. We'll tell you how that actually works and some of the other applications, but kind of the reader's digest version of fuel cells today with Tom O'Brien. Anyway, we've had a nice little bounce. We haven't quite gone, we're certainly at the level of trying to go positive on the day down two points in the S&P cash. But again, I'm not a big fan of thinking it's the end of the world for tariffs, but I do think that we're going to get a nice pullback, maybe even into the end of the month. It's going to set up some great buys for the summer. So I'll be talking more about that and other things. You've got plenty of time to give me a call at 877-927-6648. Email me at pathtfn.com. The TAS Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. Whether we're in a bull or a bear market, a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade. The TAS Profile Scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets, such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. 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Internationally at 727-873-7618. On this day in 1894, wireless radio is born. They didn't call it that. They called it Hertz Waves back then. Marconi sends a radio wave three-quarters of a mile. Three years later, the Marconi company will successfully communicate a ship to shore over a distance of 12 miles. Marconi's work leads to commercialization and proliferation of most of the radio technologies we know today. Back then, they actually used something that was about the, again, to a spark plug. And there was only one frequency for that. Basically, it worked like lightning, and if any lightning came up, it made it very hard to use radio waves, and they used that for a while. And, of course, eventually they went to AM Radio, which made it a lot better, and actually had a lot of different frequencies, and they figured out that the height of various parts of the atmosphere would reflect radio. So you had to change the frequencies during the day to reach people almost all the way around the world. But radio was the computer of that early, around 1900 area. Fortunes were made on it. The biggest company that you, if you want to think about Apple and Netflix and all those was one company. It was called Motorola. And their claim to fame wasn't building radios. It was building a power supply that you could plug in the wall that normally you'd put a lamp into that would run your big, giant radio that looked like the size of a car engine. Not exactly sure why all those things had to be massive, but people loved good-looking radios made out of wood that were the size of a rockola. They're a local diner in the 50s. People liked big things back then, probably because they didn't have a lot of stuff to put in their houses. But Motorola, the biggest thing in the world, and of course FM Radio about 1933, and a very interesting part of scientific literature. Tesla himself, a big engineer, was playing with radio maybe a couple of years before Marconi actually sent his signal, had a fairly good design, but was more interested in power generation than radio. He thought it was a little weird and went on, but pretty much they had the math figured out for radio in about 1860, 1865. It took another 30 years to actually get it to work on a commercial basis like they did with Marconi. Everybody, of course, had a Marconi representative at different locations, but of course, once you didn't have to have wires everywhere, it dropped the cost of sending communications by about 90%. And the rest of the western electric kind of sending Morse code down wires had to change. But a very interesting technology changed kind of the real first one that was well documented, and certainly something we can learn from for trading technology these days. First question out the day is, we've been talking about double repo patterns and how many of these stocks just fell off the side of the cliff going up into those double repo patterns. Question from Greg in Portland is, does this work in reverse? And the answer is yes. You want something like 10 to 15 days, although I've seen them go as far as 20 days, then of course, in fact, let's do this. Let's go ahead and pull up the art of timing the trade charts. But it is one of the better patterns out here when you've got a lot of what I call hang time in the market. Did I have, I think maybe I had some that were at the bottoms. So why don't we want to look at that? Where were they at? Oh, there they are. I had a handful of them. There is one in this that I'm looking at. Okay. Not going to be that one. Maybe it's this one. I had some, a couple of them at Lowe's the other day. I don't know if this is the list in them. So we can take a look to see now about that one, not that one. I'll have to go back and look. I kind of look for those at Lowe's more than I do at highs, but we shall see. Anyway, the answer is a definitive yet. Yes. And of course, most of these patterns that came from Joe to Napoli, he was back then equities and early 80s equities didn't move that much. Everybody wanted the action of commodities. So it's a very good pattern to learn. I think his books about 180 bucks on Amazon. But interesting guy did a lot of work for ABCs and confluence levels that I use today. Very interestingly though, he has a bunch of stuff and I always say, you know, I can program that. And he says it can't be programmed it. And then I can program it. And he kind of like goes away. I don't know what he's doing over these days, but he certainly not really receptive to the fact that I can pretty much program the stuff that he talks about. I think maybe he didn't want that many people knowing that it can be done mechanically. He's always had a theory that if you can program it, it'll eventually go away. And if it got too popular, it may not work anymore. Everybody would adapt to it. But fairly standard pattern out there. Again, I think that we could have a bigger pullback into the end of the month. And while we may have a little bit of a reversal today, I wouldn't get too excited about it. I think we could get enough people that we could get a short squeeze in the next Friday, maybe starting Wednesday, Thursday or Friday next week on a little bit more of a pullback. And again, I don't see the drain on the market stopping anytime before next week for those IPOs. So we're going to have to have more selling. And the stocks that are probably performing the worst, probably going to continue to perform fairly badly until people don't need cash anymore. Give me a call 877-927-6648. I will look for more of those double repo patterns in the near future, Greg. And we'll show them off too. Okay, what else do we have? Oh, we're going to break already. And plenty of time. Give me a call 877-927-6648. Path of Lease Resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30-day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his Path of Lease Resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. Don't miss out on this great chance to get a 30-day free trial to David's daily newsletter, The Path of Lease Resistance, with no obligation to pay anything. 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If you'd like to try my newsletter risk-free for 30 days, then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under Trading Newsletters. I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead. I even issue afternoon updates for my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action. I'm always scouring the market for the next great trading opportunity. This will be a 30-day free trial to my daily newsletter and market insights today by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Well, go get them, folks! TFNN is excited about our new software charting program, the Art of Timing the Trade Chart. In collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book, The Art of Timing the Trade, Your Ultimate Trading Mastery System, David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology. Using this first-of-its-kind program, The Art of Timing the Trade Chart allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including Gartleys, ABCs, Butterflies, and much more. The Art of Timing the Trade Chart is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software where it will even give you a 30-day unconditional money-back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Chart today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. And we're back. Now, let's take a quick look at IBM. We haven't done that for a while. Not brought up a lot. So we'll take a quick look at that. Yeah, like I said, this thing probably looking like a magnet about 125, 127. Looks to me like where IBM will eventually pull back. You had a nice gap up on earnings last time. I think that was only because everybody was way too short. The stock, not much shorting going on, except this gap down on the 17th of April. Everybody started shorting it, but they're in a winning position. I don't see them getting out anytime soon. But about 125, 127 probably, where that's coming back. And like I said, I think we can probably have maybe some sideways action, maybe even a little pop into expiration next week. And then in a perfect world, if I was looking to put on some long-term positions, a nice light volume retrace into the three-day weekend at the end of this month, maybe one of the better longer-term setups that we will have. I like it especially since everybody's been assuming the trade deal is five minutes away. I would much rather trade with them not thinking that and not pricing that in and then be surprised when it actually does happen than to be surprised when it doesn't happen and the bottom falls out. I've seen better days. What's the name of that song? I've seen better days. I've seen many plays. I've seen better days. And the bottom dropped out. Maybe someone will remind me of that song. I know the lyrics. I can't remember. Maybe it was a one-hit wonder. I'll look it up during the break. We'll look at some other stuff going on here soon, but we'll see how some of the bigger stocks reacted. And then we'll get into looking at, if I can find it here. I had it earlier. Let's move this around so I can get to it a little easier. There it is. We'll look at the options curve for yesterday and did I get that? Okay, Thursday. I don't know which one of these is supposed to be all Thursday, but I'll do all of them. Netflix down pretty much to where it should have. You got it spiked right back in. The gap up that was April 16th's gap came up on 18.7 million shares. You hit it yesterday with 5.8 million shares. Hit it again today with 4.1 million shares. No, it wasn't by Yoko. Oh, no. Okay. Anyway, that's a pretty good sign out here that 360 is probably going to hold for a little while. Again, just because you have a bottom doesn't mean it's going higher. Just means it's not going lower, at least for the moment. Everybody, I think when you say it's, you've got a bottom assumes a V bottom and not kind of a U bottom. I'm kind of expecting that maybe we get kind of a U bottom. We pop a little bit and everybody gets a little bearish going back into the summer. And maybe that sets up some really good buys, but don't see a lot in here right now that says that there's any trend or even a reverse trend that has stopped or started so far. Only, it's kind of like you cut, you start bleeding. It didn't suddenly like you feel like you can run a marathon just because you're not bleeding anymore. I think that's kind of what we're at here. We've had kind of a, well, at least I'm not going to die today on this beach. So continue to look at it that way. What else do we have? We looked at Netflix. We'll see how everybody probably wanting to run back into Microsoft as soon as it gave a hint that anybody even thought maybe that we had a low. You did kind of bounce a little bit back into the trading range on Microsoft today up on, let's call it 19 million shares. That's compared to being down yesterday on 27 million shares and 36 million shares the day before it and 24 million shares the day before it. So a weak volume bounce doesn't negate a downtrend in this stock yet. But like I said, we bounce around about 125 or so for the week, wouldn't be surprised to see this expire like 127.50 on options expiration. And again, 85% of the time, the low of Wednesday, this market's going to, at least on the S&P cash, it's going to close above that level. So, you know, we're kind of right there already. So there isn't a lot of extra movement. And we talked about what the option curve actually looked like. Pretty definitively looks like this is fairly close. Is that right? No, that's a S&P 500. We wanted to spy. Yeah, that's a spy. Let's zoom in here a little bit more. Was pretty much around 285 on the spies. Let me get that to say... So we're at 286.37 right now. Now, normally what you want to do is find out where the options cross. And there will always be a few more short sellers than people that are buying it for downside protection. Then there will be people buying calls just the way it is. Put call ratio is almost always above 50. And that's because people buy insurance just like you buy it for your house. And you hope it doesn't burn to the ground, but it is a hedge. So there's almost always a positive bias of about 20 points on the S&P cash, maybe a 40. So you talk about maybe two or three points on the spies. That would get you up to about 287, 288. Now, this will change and track as we go in next week. But I didn't think it was a lot of reasons to stay short or to go long into the morning until we got a signal. Now, there was a nice interday swing for everybody, but it wasn't the end of the world. We're off about five points on the S&P cash. Like I said, probably a lot of back and fill certainly maybe if they get those IPOs out on Thursday, maybe that means that the end of the selling will come out on Wednesday so that they can buy those new IPOs. And finally, we have yet another kind of end of the push that really sucking all the oxygen out of the room of the market for the moment, much less a lot of people banging the drums on tariff issues, which kind of they're betting that certainly they're going to get them. I don't know that they've gone into effect yet. I know that there have been a lot of talk about it. The question is whether or not we actually walk into money or into the future is Sunday night and there's been a breakthrough or something else. I know that the negotiations are over for today, but I saw something that said that they're going to continue over the weekend, so we'll see. But more of a gamble than intelligent speculation. I don't like to go in to Fed meetings or what the Chinese-U.S. relationship's going to be on Monday. So mostly cash at this moment. I have one long-term short position, which seems to be doing just fine for me, so we'll continue on that. I got some downside protection, but that's about it. We'll be back in a minute. If you are in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First Mortgage Program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. 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Nasdaq's still kind of the weakest, along with the Russell. Russell's down 3.10% along with the Nasdaq. Nasdaq's down 25. Russell's off five. So we'll continue to take a look at it. We've seen some swings to the low. Like I said, I think we get kind of a retest on this level probably next week, maybe on Wednesday if we're lucky. And setting up, everybody knows how much I love trading options on the last day of expiration if we've got something set up. It only happens maybe once or twice a year, but man, you can buy a lot of 10 and 25 cent options that go to two bucks if you can catch it correctly. So kind of compressing a lot of risk and reward in a single day. Normally I like to see that we've got some time for options to pay off, but when you've got one day left, man, you basically have some incredibly small bets that can turn off to be incredibly huge payouts. Kind of like that 64 to one horse in the Kentucky Derby last week, don't watch horse racing, went to one. And that was at Exarbonne, which is Nebraska spelled backwards. The only thing I remember about that day, I think I lost 10 bucks. That's the last horse race I went to. I think since I actually worked in stables, I never much thought much about horses except the bad thing that came out of them, at least the thing I disliked. Anyway, looking at some other stocks out here, just seeing what else. Question about Apple. So we'll go into that. Again, give me a call at 877-927-6648. Apple, of course, had one of the better patterns out here for your double repo. This thing continued to pretty much stay above that since back on April 1st. You had your closes below it, closes above it, and of course closed above it on the 6th. The next day was down, and that's kind of where everything really starts to fall apart. And that's generally a good place. Once you get that solid close, you just want it to stay below the 3x3 displaced moving average. Good example out here. This may be it. In fact, I didn't look at Apple's options yet today or if I did or forgot. Yeah, that one shows about straight 200 bucks. So keep an eye on that one. Four bucks, is that enough for me to play? It isn't unless it's the last day of options expiration. I can get something like a 25-cent or 50-cent option for a potential $4 payout. But those are some of the ones that we'll be looking for next week. But this is a, when you look at this kind of very much, I kind of call it a goblet. Not quite a V formation. Those are dead, generally dead nuts on. But when you get this kind of nice bowl formation, kind of a nice, easy move into options expiration. So if we continue to see this thing hovering in the low 190s next week for options expiration, if this does not change, it may be a nice little pop for Apple back into Friday's expiration, close a week from today. What else do we have out here? Check on the email. A lot of stuff coming in. Okay, got it. Okay. Okay, what else is going on out here? In FLX, in Netflix, we talked about that one already. Let's talk about some of the other ones. O-R-C-L, Oracle, taking a look at that one. Now you kind of, this one is one of these that I would say may have a better set up for a short coming up. You closed under the three by three. You're actually pushing back up over it now. And the next close underneath that would say that this would be severely weakened. You know, this thing doesn't trade very far, but certainly could go back down to 5150 on any kind of weakness in the next few days. See, that one may be the weakest one that I've looked at so far. And Amazon. Oh, if I can actually type it correctly. AMZN, right? AMZN. Okay. Had my senior moment here. Again, a lot of these double repo patterns opened up. You generally don't want to go along these things until they close back above the three by three because they tend to come up there and hit them and then pull back. And we could see something like that happen the first couple of days of next week, and then it kind of pulled back down maybe where it's at now. That's what also might have a nice set up. Let's take a look at AMZN. And the option curve. And this one always tends to be, I have a little bit more on it. I wouldn't, you know, 1850 is kind of the very downside prediction for Amazon with its options curve. So that, you know, maybe worst case, you probably have already seen the low import for the next week. Most more than likely, about an 80% chance to do what else do we have? I wanted to look at... Oh, I know what I wanted to do. Let's go back here and do this. Okay. Not on that. Oh, that's what I wanted to do. I wanted to look into Monday and next week's, not options, but earnings. And we had take two on Monday, with T-T-W-O. This one is very interesting going into options, or not into earnings on Monday after the bell. This thing is at pretty much the maximum resistance level. And some of the things that are going on in Congress, actually just last night and today and in China, they put a lot of weakness for companies that actually do a lot of business, both in China and with young folk. Youngens, utes. That's what it is, utes. So if there are a lot of utes using stuff, the freshman senator from Missouri has put a fourth, a bill that's got some traction. And that is something they call loot boxes, where you buy additional things to play the game. And if that hit, a lot of these gaming companies that have been kind of skimming off young kids for a while may be severely hurt. Going to be interesting on this, but a couple of headwinds hitting electronic gaming here in the near future. Be back in a minute. I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. 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Get your two-week free trial to Basel's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. And hopefully we brought it up, but yes, that was Citizen King. I've had better days. And the bottom dropped out. I like that song. I want to hit wonder, but that was pretty good. And I had a comment about 90s music. And I thought, well, apparently they didn't watch our C. Dave Matthews in the last part of that because man, probably still one of the best musicians out there. And certainly the music absolutely brilliantly recorded even and performed on stage. I don't think he's doing much anymore. As we get into the last couple of minutes of the day, Reminder will be doing the Tech Insider hour with a, or half hour, with Tom O'Brien at the bottom and next hour. We're talking about hydrogen fuel cells, fuel cells in general. Why they're such a big deal and why they're in the news this week. Couple of different times, but very interesting technology. We'll talk about it compared to batteries and other things. So kind of interesting technology. As we close the day up, we're now up five points on the S&P cash, up 70 points on the Dow. NASDAQ's still down 12 and the Russell's off three. When we take a look at the volume today, it had always been kind of lightish compared to the last two days. We're doing about five billion shares with an hour to go. So that sets up for maybe about 500 million, maybe 600 million lighter than the last couple of days. And that's going to get you enough for a little bit, I think, of a bounce. And I'm hoping that we get one more pullback with even lighter volume to set up options expiration next week. And maybe a nice little sell-off into the end of the month that sets up a great buying opportunity. We'll be back to you on Monday. Same-bat channel, same-bat time. Remember to sell when you can, not when you have to. See you at 3.30 with Tom O'Brien.