 Mae gynhwys. Mae'n gwybod yn ysgolion y 24 wled, o'r adroddau sy'n gyfo'r ysgolion, o'r cymddeithas yma, a o'r hynod o'r hendlau o'r cyflaenau, oherwydd y byddai'r cymdau o'r adroddau yn y dyfodol, i'r ysgolion o'r cyfrifiadau a'r cyfrifiadau oherwydd yma, oherwydd y dyfodol wedi'u byddai'r cyfrifiadau o bobl yw yng ngyrsgol ymlaen ei awr, oherwydd mae'n cyfrifiadau o'r cyfrifiadau o'r cyfrifiadau Fod i ti'r cynnigau cyfraeddiant Dynolio gyda'r vwladau at y maorth gan Y Cyfroedd ac Ieidwch. Mae'r rhagleniaeth a gynaeth i'r Rhwng dawn i ymelly. Mae'r Rhwng yn dweud y llun, ac mae'r Rhwng yn dweud y llun. Mae'r Rhwng yn dweud gyda'r Rhwng yn dweud o sicrhau gyda'r Rhwng. felly rydyn ni'n gobeithio â'r ECB. Rydyn ni'n gweithio, fel y ffordd, yn diem ni'n gweithio ar y mynd i ddweud sy'n gweithio y tym ni yn rhan o'r eventau a'r Ysgrifenneud Cymru a'r Ysgrifenneud Cymru yn ymwylo'r ysgrifenneud. Oni'n dweud, ydych chi'n dweud yr oedd ffordd o'r ddaeth yn gwirio ar y zon, yn fwylo'n ysgrifenneud, ac mae'n gofyn ni'n gweithio, os ysgrifenneud o'r ddweud, I will update the chat, either one of us, so that you can be kept informed. We've got the French services manufacturing PMI coming out shortly at quarter past the hour, followed by the German figures. Now these are important because these are the flash readings for the month of July. And as we're going to have a look at in particular the lights of the contraction of which manufacturing in Germany has been in for the last couple of months, that would be of particular interest to the market, and things like the euro, the DAX, the burn will be highly sensitive to those numbers as they come out. So, quick look at the overall general sentiment, and it's pretty flat overall, so relatively neutral. Currency markets are basically unchanged on the session. Therefore, gold pretty flat. European and US stock indices are generally reflecting the same as to a T-notes, which are currently unchanged trading at 1.2711.5 at the moment. One slight mover, WTI Crude. So, despite more downgrades we had on global growth outlook for the IMF yesterday, at the moment the inventory situation from the API data from last night just helping propel prices overnight, and we're remaining above pivot in the futures. So oil just trading at 57 hand or up about 33 cents for the moment. So the news I'm going to talk about is more general updates than it is as per reflection of these charts, anything that there's big major market moving news to take on board so far this morning. But as I said, the European data coming out while I'm delivering this briefing is important. So I'll try and keep you updated as those numbers come out while I'm going through the news. First off then is Boris Johnson, obviously as expected yesterday and it caused relatively benign movement in the British pound because this was very much expected. I think the percentage was about 66%, which was pretty much bang on what expectations were. So no surprises. This now in terms of the timeline means that Theresa May delivers her final PM queues. That starts at the regular time midday. Then she will set off to meet the queen to hand in her resignation letter. And then Boris Johnson basically will have the keys to number 10 from effectively 4pm. Potentially he'll give a short speech at that point probably outside number 10. The other thing and the main thing we're looking out for going forward is who is he going to appoint for his cabinet. One of the ones that we've had so far in the press is Priti Patel, the anti-EU Conservative member. And so we're looking out for what is the composition as to how much are they aligned with a more hard Brexit increased risk of no deals type strategy team. Philip Hammond and several others have refused to serve under the new leader. So their resignations as well could well be forthcoming today. Is that going to move the pound? No, because these are very much remain characters within the Tory party. And Hammond even said on the Andrew Marr show at the weekend that he would resign if Boris becomes PM. So it would be even though he carries a position of significance as the Chancellor, likelihood he'll get replaced. I haven't really read too much about it this morning, but I remember a few weeks ago, Sigid Javid was being tabled as the potential Chancellor. That was one of the candidates of which Boris was going against in this elimination round just a few weeks ago. Could well be that person. From here then, we're looking at cabinet appointments today. How much does that give a hint as towards then the potential stance in the Brexit negotiations? And then Friday is when he will then look to formalize that and deliver a speech of where he can basically choose where he delivers that. But if you think about it, where he delivers the speech, and this has always been the kind of the regular symbolic move from a new incoming Prime Minister, is where they deliver that gives a very telling sign of what their future ambitions and agenda might be. So in this case, if Boris really wanted to cajole this sentiment behind a more aggressive Brexit hard stance, then could he go to quite a heavily leaning leave area to really roll the troops and general public sentiment? Or could he go to Belfast and go to Northern Ireland and really address the main issue at play? Personally, I think probably he'll adopt the former rather than the latter. And as we're going to discuss, it's the latter that I think is going to be the sticking point still for his premiership at this point. Now moving on to that, there's a couple of different things to show you. This was an interesting graphic by our friends at ING who've updated their Brexit scenario probability matrix. What you've got here are five different probabilities or scenarios. Parliament forces a general election, revamp deal, second referendum, no deal or revoke article 50. Most probable in their estimations is that Parliament stops no deal by passing no confidence motion. A general election takes place as early as December. Something of which in the press Boris Johnson has said that's not going to happen at this point, despite a lot of the rumour mill indicating that he could well go down that path. If there was going to be a general election, well then article 50 in order for that to take place, the technicality around legislation of that on playing out means that we would have to have an extension of about three months. That would obviously take us to the end of the year, end of 2019. The least probable at this point is revoke of article 50. Parliament may prefer this over a no deal exit, but like a second referendum MPs could lack a legislative tool to force the new PM's hand. As they've noted in that black box at the bottom, ING say they also would not rule out Mr Johnson asking for a further extension simply to buy more time to break the deadlock. Kind of like I guess what Theresa May was doing in the initial deadlines. But obviously now that Boris has put out such a definitive stance about the October date, that's what's going to make it interesting. Is this a game of brinxmanship with the EU and who is going to blink first? The biggest issue of course is Northern Ireland and it still remains the case. This was one of the other graphics that ING I thought was quite a nice summary and it looks at the various different solutions to the Northern Irish backstop and you can see how difficult this is and it runs through the different ones in quite a simple infographic form. Removal of the Irish backstop, well that can appease maybe a parliament majority but would not be acceptable to the EU. They've made that quite explicitly clear. A time limit on the Irish backstop, again acceptable to the EU, probably not. Revert Northern Ireland only backstop, Brexit is happy because all UK custom union removed but the DUP worried about greater trade friction between the Northern Ireland and Great Britain so they would likely block that and we're still working majority with DUP support for the current Conservative composition. Then you go down basically these other areas and whatever case you go down either Europe or Parliament are not going to be happy with the status quo at the moment so although Boris's speech was indicative of there's nothing to be worried about and we should be optimistic, this is really what he says about this and the details of which, again, as per a lot of the hustings and TV interviews he's shown not to be a man of detail, it really does come down to that now so that's going to be really important. Just jumping away from the Brexit talk, we just had the French numbers come out. Sam, if you can post and please in the chatroom, French Flash Manufacturing fell to 50, forecast 51.6, so stagnation on the manufacturing front. We've just had a pop in the boom, euro under pressure here. You can see in the top left hand corner we've just broken the Asia Pacific low. So again, French Manufacturing quite a bit lower than expected and on the cusp of turning into contractionary territory. If I just quickly jump over here, this was the service reading. Let's go to the manufacturing and bring that up. You can see we have been sub 50 before, that's just come out here now for July. We were equal then to April. We had two blips at the end of 2018 and also in March when we got around a similar figure. The services number was a touch softer 52.2 against 52.6 so weak numbers, quite an explosive move in the bund on the back of that euro, a test on the low. Remember you've got the German numbers to follow in about 15 minutes time. So again, this was the charts, here's the manufacturing situation. Back at 50, we have been there on those previous two occasions here. While I'm on the topic of the PMIs, let's quickly look at Germany before we go about the other headlines. A German flash manufacturing PMI is expected at 45.2. The previous reading was 45. So we're looking for a fairly constant reading here. You can see the quite dramatic slowdown we've had in manufacturing through the last 12 months. It seems to have petered out and hit the bottom of that trend in March. That was right around the main part of when Brexit original deadline was hitting. I guess the question mark is, have we now, is there a persistent trend here of stability in the manufacturing sector? If anything, a mild recovery or the bottom end of the range for the German figure is 44, which has put us right back down to that low which we printed in March. Any downside number is like you're going to fuel further euro depreciation. We'll probably put more pressure on this idea of more dovish signals to come for the inevitable rate cuts, whether happening now or in the future from the ECB in the coming months, most likely September. So keeping an eye out for that, I'll keep you updated when they come out. The final Brexit related chart I just wanted to show you is this. This is a nice reflection of the main key facets of the British economy at this point in time. So if you were thinking about the areas of which define the UK economy of which MPC members are monitoring closely, this pretty much encapsulates those main key six areas. And we had a really interesting development yesterday as far as the Monetary Policy Committee are concerned, because Michael Saunders, who's the most hawkish member, came out with some quite dovish rhetoric talking about how the Bank of England doesn't need to stick to its predefined forecasts and that actually given the uncertainties emanating from Brexit, that actually we could move rates lower is what he was hinting towards. And that's quite an important shift for the overall composition of the board becoming ever more dovish in line with some of the other global central banks. And what we've got here is basically hiring is faltering slightly. Jobs growth has slowed over the recent months. And that before had remained relatively robust, leading to quite radically low unemployment rates in the UK, which was leading to higher wage growth, which for the moment the Bank of England is suggesting will then lead to higher inflation in the medium term. Hence the reason more appropriate to have rates where they are. However, with hiring slowing, does that then in the coming months start to mitigate this outright hawkish signal from wage growth as that starts to pull back as we start to get closer to the deadline if Boris does take quite a firm stance in Brexit negotiations. That's likely to put off further investment into the country and therefore as a net result, manufacturing continues to be relatively tame also given the fact that a lot of companies had already built their pre-Brexit stockpile or their inventories ahead of what was the former deadline in March. So yeah, quite a nice overview of the current state of play. Moving on, the other broader topics of course are trade wars and as I said we did have a relatively positive finish to proceedings last night on Wall Street. Just quickly, I know Sam will look at these charts in more detail but I was just looking at this setup in the S&P. You had that trend line formation from basically the 16th, the retest on the 19th and then the triple test that you had and that line still holding from the recovery from the low on the 22nd. And I know one of the guys traded really nice trade, catching the top of that didn't get the fill on the following contracts to have greater size because we didn't actually quite touch that trend line but still nonetheless playing that technically in a very sound trade. You can see how well that that actual trend line has played out because after we broke through it, really nice follow through then targeting R2 on the rise yesterday in the future space but when we came back down at the close after the closing bell retest on that line before then a recovery and a retest of the initial high that was seen at around the Wall Street close into the Asia Pacific session. So quite a technical based in terms of its execution and I'm sure Sam will have a few thoughts about how to play that going forward on the pullback here towards the trend line and pivot. I'm sure he'll be looking at quite closely as we go through the rest of the session. But a lot of that coming from the idea that US negotiators are to head to China next week on Monday, further face to face talk so another positive development following what was phone calls that we had last week as they were to push things forward. However overnight China has released a report basically accusing the US of undermining global stability as the Chinese country released its first defence white paper since Xi Jinping initiated sweeping military overhaul in 2015. So it's the first strategy document released in Beijing in four years and quite critical of the US. So interesting to see how Trump will respond to this and obviously this comes as the prelude to face to face talks which are going to happen at the beginning of next week. I was going to talk a little bit about the ECB but I'm going to hold off on that. I'm very mindful of the fact that these PMIs are more important in the near term for the intraday so the final things I'm going to show you are we do have also on the calendar the US manufacturing PMI coming out later so do bear that in mind. You've also got new home sales and you've got the oil infantry numbers coming out this afternoon. In terms of the oil infantry numbers as I said WTI crew did see a rally from the traditional around the European exit so post 6pm prices started to move higher we then had quite a bit of volatility around the release of the APIs because we had a drawdown of 10.961 million so fairly punchy. Cushing also draw of just shy of half a million. Gasoline though was the biggest build since January so do bear that in mind when we have the DOEs later this afternoon at 3.30 London time. That was a build of 4.436 million that still is a build of 1.42 million. Then from earnings reports today there are some particularly interesting ones so I will share more details in the chat later but pre-market Boeing the largest component of the Dow Jones industrial average you've also got AT&T, Caterpillar and UPS and the other names that I would keep an eye on if you are looking at index futures pre the cash equity open then aftermarket you've got another one of the big tech names one of the Facebook reporting they will probably capture most of the attention you've also got Tesla as well always quite interested to see how they perform alright that's it from me then let me hand you over to Sam as I said you've got the German manufacturing service PMI these are the flash readings these are important and so I will populate the chatroom as Sam is talking over the charts so he can also update you live as the data comes out so you guys have a good day Thanks Sam As the S&P is up we'll start on that and I can't say on that top end of that trend line working superbly once we broke through those trade comments really igniting the S&P late in the session and the retest was pretty much bang on to the tick so keeping an eye as I was saying around that pivot look pretty pivotal I intended with the trend line from the top end of the pen and the bottom and the 3000 the handle there as well so keep a close watch on that to the upside we've got a key resistance around 08 and then if you want to make it a zone up to 10 as well where just above that then you've got the R1 but pivot looks key the highs of the day and yesterday and then also back on the 19th and you can argue some resistance on the 17th are interesting to the upside to the downside if pivot was not to hold or you actually didn't want to get in around that point you can see there is a key level below as well the resistance before we did break through on those trade comments last night around 97 so as a zone of support really from the low of the day 3000 the handle, the two trend lines from those pen and the pivot and then this area of resistance as well looks pretty key breaks of that and you could see a decent drift down so another key area where it also matches up with S1 2990 and the lows from yesterday which were the third test of that trend line which really held very well so good tests on those just having a quick look over at oil because we had a similar reaction in that once we, let's remove these lines here once we broke through the top end of its trend line let's draw this on you can see just how strong that reaction was so you had a really nice third test in the morning and then once we came through late in the session you could see the decent break through I think quite anyway on the 15 minute time period you didn't quite get the test retest back of it but certainly you did on the previous high of the day a really strong push through there for oil obviously with the APIs coming out last night so Dewey's today that will be a focus to have more on where this market could go I guess we'll find them mentally but technically should we get back down to the pivot you can see there was the morning support there you got quite a key point from 56.54 on the futures just a good price action level from yesterday but also previous days as well be it just where we just in case we were to have an opposing reaction to last night for those from those APIs back down towards a retest of this trend line and the bottom end of this trend that started back on the 18th that would be somewhere I'd have marked up as well and focus on going forward looking over to the currencies obviously euro just continued to drip lower and lower yesterday just making this chart as small as I can obviously marking up those double lows from the 23rd and 30th of May so that's not too far away from where we're trading at 112.11 obviously got the data coming out very shortly not just from the French numbers that we've already come out with Germany in one minute I'm sure Fran will put in the chat and then the euro numbers as well so just be a bit careful but certainly technically 112.11 the futures just before the pivot looks pretty key so the upside if you were looking to go long I mean obviously you'd wait for the data anyway but with these things probably worth seeing if you can get any of the kind of trend line in the mix and you can see we haven't quite yet but something similar to this where you got your one to possible third test and then on a break of that you get that relief rally to the upside but for now you know if the French numbers are looking to go by it's not going to be looking too good for the moment. The pound quickly I'm going to look over we did just drift up towards the pivot and you can see we are trending lower as well so similar to see can we get any kind of trend line in it has been messy on the way down obviously with the reaction to Boris perhaps not winning by as bigger margin did push us up towards the pivot where we had some previous resistance which acted as the higher the day certainly to the downside I would be looking to to have this on and almost really waiting for a reaction outside of the two while you have a decent range opportunity around the higher yesterday and the R1 you've got some support around the S1 as well just seeing price just getting squeezed in from both directions here those lows certainly getting getting higher and the highest getting lower might be worth just seeing what happens if we were to break out either way much similar to oil and S&P 43.1 43.1, they're pretty low so have a quick look over to the euro dollar here which you can see as expected this has pushed to a new low there just testing the S1 for the day decent decent miss there services was better but manufacturing really low there 43.1 and their composite worse as well 51.4 so their numbers are in the chat for you guys to have a look at we'll have a quick look over the DAX as well which you can see just coming under a bit of pressure itself of that worse than expected number just be bare in mind though that euro was to weaken considerably you may find a bit of support there the bund on the flip side is absolutely skyrocketed look at that on a minute that's a massive move there in the bund ahead of ECB day tomorrow we'd definitely interesting to see what happens there and that's obviously the new all time higher there for the bund really really strong move and just looking at the previous days it's the most it's moved really since going back to the 18th of June it's a massive move there for euro related products it's looking seven year low for the manufacturing and the same which is incredible just having a look actually at the euro pound this was the market I was looking at yesterday and I did tweet this we were to get a close below this level which we didn't but we are now below there I think from a medium term short opportunity I think it looks quite good although obviously the pound not necessarily looking too rose in the euro in the situation where the dollar is obviously on the you know euro dollars on the low a break of this targeting certainly at least to the low of July and maybe even that 20th of June and then that 20th of June low as well or something that I would be focusing on having a quick look over at gold just to finish things up obviously the euro moving quite strongly now so we'll get you guys crack on but certainly from another pendant or trendline point of view for gold you can see from that high that we had on the 18th I would definitely be looking to see what happens should we get back up to test this trend here coming in around 1425 on the futures and we're also getting squeezed in to the downside as well so it would be worth seeing what happens should we get a break either way as we've seen in previous days when those breaks do happen you get a longer lasting move so certainly we'll have that on trendlines formed from the top of the 18th so yesterday's high and see what happens today as well as usual any questions obviously please do let us know if you're out of Europe in half an hour if we continue to push down obviously you've got to factor in a lot of that would be priced in even if the euro numbers are worse so just be slightly careful out there now but I hope you'll have a good trading date and I'll catch you in the channel