 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Big week in soccer coming up overseas because we have both the EPL match week 35 and The UCL semifinals coming up and next week we're gonna break down both of those lost and cast getting his brain I'm the EPL and UCL and we'll talk some formula one in NASCAR later on This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire dot com My name is Jim Sanis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joint here is mentioned by Austin Cass You can find him on Twitter at Austin Cass You can check out his work over at number fire We're here as a senior editor Austin you're on a heater right now and your soccer recommendations here on the show So how you doing today? Doing well. Yeah, just gotta enjoy the good betting breaks when you get them. So yeah, everything's good How are you doing? I'm doing great in part because you've given us such good recommendations I appreciate if I can if I can make money without having to work too hard like running my own stuff I always trust like my stuff more in general, but if I can like have some easy wins via Austin Cass I'm gonna take that every time So I appreciate how things have gone there and I feel like you're kind of on your your earling Holland streak here From a betting perspective heading into the semifinals Yeah, I don't think I'm quite his level, but yeah, things have been going well. So hopefully we can keep it going I hope we can as well We're gonna talk about the EPL first then we'll run through the UCL stuff with the both the semifinal matches We want to both them individually and talk some futures to get you ready for that But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast If you want some thoughts on the Kentucky Derby We talked to Christina Blacker of Fandwall TV getting her read on this year's field and the post draw and much more Find that on the covering the spread podcast feed or over on the Fandwall YouTube page Let's start things off here with the EPL Austin it is again in match week 35 in the English Premier League We have a lot of games ten different matches from Saturday through Monday So starting off with those in the EPL where you seem value for this week My favorite Premier League bet this weekend is man city to score over two and a half goals against Leeds That's priced at minus 164 City's minus 700 on the money line says it's obviously a pretty off-sided matchup City are absolutely flying right now Leeds are really really struggling Leeds have been leaking goals They've conceded to multiple goals and nine of their previous 11 fixtures across all competitions They've allowed five goals to Crystal Palace and four to Bournemouth During that span, so it's not just the top sides that are giving them trouble City are probably the last team in the world you want to be facing when you're out of whack on defense City have scored three plus goals and nine of their last 11 outings and they've tallied 40 goals over that those 11 Masters, which is just crazy The only thing working in Leeds favor is that city have Champions League coming up next midweek, which we're gonna be talking about here in a few minutes But even if city rotate the squad some Don't keep the pedal to the metal all-match or just aren't focused on the game I still think Leeds are gonna have a a huge task in front of them to keep this score line respectable So I'm on city at minus 164 to score at least three goals Yeah, that is for man city versus Leeds again over two and a half goals for man city is minus 164 And your read on this is that the depth on man city is enough where even if they do decide to rest some guys for The UCL matches next week. They should still be good to at least get to this number, correct? Yep, absolutely, and they actually just didn't start Kevin de Bruyne the last night against West Ham So I would assume that he'll play this weekend unless there's some injury. We don't know about So even if somebody like Holland sits, they have enough attacking depth to cause leads plenty of problems for the entirety of the 90 minutes Okay, so that's the man city versus Leeds match anything else you like across the EPL for this week Um Not really be honest. Not really. There's there's a lot of games and it should be some fun matches But there's nothing that really jumped out to me. Okay, let's talk about the headliners then and talk about the UEFA Champions League semi-finals. We've got two matches coming up one on Tuesday one on Wednesday Let's start things off with the individual matches Then we'll talk about the futures market after that the first match is Tuesday Real Madrid against man city man city right now plus one ten of the money line real Madrid is at plus 230 when you look at this match at Boston It seems like everything's gonna come up man city thus far. Does that continue? Can they win this match? What's your read on the betting markets here? Yeah, so I'm gonna I'm gonna take man city at plus one ten and keep the theme going of praising city But we I wish I had the records to see this but we can almost never get man city at plus money But as we just said they're peaking at the right time It's their best form in the season in the knockout rounds in the Champions League so far They topped RB likes it Leipzig eight to one on aggregate and then Bayern Munich four to one in the quarter finals Something that makes me feel a little bit better about city than maybe I haven't put previous seasons when they've continually come up short in the Champions League is that They've shown an ability to manage games when needed and that should really come in handy for this match at the Bernabéu And just overall city are the better side by every reps expect a goals model City own an XG differential per 90 minutes of plus 1.37. That's the top market cross Europe's big five leagues Real Madrid's XG differential is put plus 1.11 still a good number, but not quite cities level It's never easy to compare stats from teams in different domestic leagues But those members likely flatter city because the Premier League's a notch above La Liga, which is Real Madrid's domestic league It's always scary to bet against Real Madrid in this competition city were better than Real Madrid last year But Real Madrid upset him and then won the Champions League. So And anything can happen at the Bernabéu is one of the toughest places to play in Europe But for me everything points to city and I think they win next week's first leg Now you mentioned the issues that they've had in the UEFA Champions League Do you think that that is giving us a bit of a discount on the price here at Man City of plus 1.10 Is that history playing into this number at all? I Don't think so. They've actually been in the futures market. That's like the favorite to win it all along Even when they got a tough draw and had to play Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals. They were still a pretty decent favorite So I think the market is viewing them as clearly the best team in Europe That's been the case at least last year and maybe the year before that too and they've just Kind of found a way to lose maybe had some bad luck But yeah, just in the past city have been very attack-minded and kind of Played one way all the time and that's come back to bite them a little bit and this year They've shown the ability to be More defensive more boring basically when they need to be and that's something that is going to come in handy this first leg I think okay, so we we are on Man City plus 1.10 to win in 90 minutes plus stoppage time Against Real Madrid for Tuesday's match on Wednesday We get Milan against Inter and we've seen some movement towards Inter in the betting markets recently because it was a plus 175 on both teams last night It is now plus 160 for Inter to win plus 185 from a long and look at this match of Austin Where do you see value if any? Yeah in fan at Vandalsports book right now? Yeah, as the odds indicate this is a really tough one to call on paper. It's definitely the weaker semi-final of the two But with these two clubs sharing a city in a stadium It should be just like a really fun atmosphere of both games As you said the lines have been moving in his way and that's the side I want to be on specifically Inter at minus 120 and the tie no bet market These two teams are just two points apart in the Serie A table but By expected goals enter on the better side by a pretty wide margin They have an expected goal differential of plus 32.3, which is actually tops in Serie A despite them being fourth AC Milan's actually differentials only plus 14.7 On top of that Milan are somewhat lucky to be here by expected goals They narrowly lost each leg against Napoli in the last round and that was with Napoli Having to play without star striker Victor Oceman in the first leg So I'm gonna take Inter at minus 120 in the time on that market because I think they're decent bit better than Milan I think you can also make an argument to take draw it plus 210 if you wanted but that's not the route I'm gonna go. Yeah, the draw market is also lengthen. I believe it was two-to-one yesterday For there to be a draw. It is now plus 210 Inter down to minus 120 in the tie no bet market Milan is at plus 102 there as well So Austin siding with Inter in the second game siding with man City against Ray on Madrid at plus 110 And liking man City over two and a half goals versus leads this weekend and Austin if the past Month or so as any indication those are looking pretty solid That is Austin Cass make sure you check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass Find his work over at numberfire.com awesome Let's keep this heater rolling, but overall just enjoy the soccer this week I have some fun walks in that which should be some really good matches. We'll talk to you again here in the very near future Sounds good. Thank you very much. See you. Alrighty. Appreciate you That is Austin Cass again find him on Twitter at Austin Cass and check out his EPL work over at numberfire.com We're gonna dig into Formula one at Miami and NASCAR in Kansas here in just one second at first The biggest horse race of the year is here And there's no better time to get in on the action on Fandal racing because right now all Customers can get a no sweat derby bet up to $20 That means you go to $20 back if your win bet doesn't win the Fandal racing app It's super easy to use safe and secure and when you win you can pay it fast So don't miss out the derby is coming up this Saturday. Just visit racing dot Fandal calm For your chance to get a no sweat derby bet up to $20 on Fandal racing That's racing and dot Fandal calm age and residency Restrictions apply offer valid on first derby win wager refund issued in non withdrawal racing site credit that expires on June 12 2023 Restrictions apply see terms at racing dot Fandal calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Now let's just focus here and talk about some other racing for this weekend. We got formula one in Miami We've got NASCAR in Kansas and got some stuff to focus on in both of these and starting off with formula one. It's their Second time at the Miami Grand Prix. It's a short turnaround after Azeri by John and Baku this past week and If you've been listening to the F1 segments on this show recently, you're probably not gonna be surprised But my favorite bet for this week once again is on the land stroll now stroll Didn't come through for us last week because what the recommendation was was a ladder bet where you put some on his top 10 odds Put some on top six and then put some on the podium like a little sprinkle there and stroll finish seventh So the top 10 bet cash, but overall not what you're looking for in that kind of bet So it didn't work out with just the top 10 hitting there But now we're getting pretty favorable odds here on stroll to finish inside the top six his top six odds are down to minus 105 and I'd honestly be okay sticking to just that versus going the ladder approach this week I've been pretty well above it, but He is also a value in the top 10 markets and in the podium market as well But if we're talking just about the top six odds, it is concerning to see the Ferrari was so fast this past weekend I am not sure how much that will translate here Because maybe they brought upgrades to Baku that really led to all that pace they had but stroll even with Ferrari being better Did still finish seventh and I was surprised on and Aston Martin was having some major issues with their DRS flaps So in qualifying they weren't able to go full out because they the DRS is malfunctioning still finished seventh there at minus 105 I do like stroll to finish inside the top six Personally, I will be adding on the podium as well. He's plus 850. It's gonna be a very, you know I want to again ladder this where I probably finished inside the top six Take some of that profit put on the podium as well plus 850 He's a pretty good value there by my number So I'll take stroll minus 105 top six and then add a little bit on the podium a plus 850 But not sure if I can recommend that one necessarily because of how things have gone with him so far The other bet I like is from Nico Hulkenberg to finish inside the top 10 That is plus 250 right now over at Fandals sportsbook And I understand why this number is long because we've had four races so far Hulkenberg just one top 10 finish Which means his top 10 rate is 25 percent his implied odds here 28.6 percent But part of this analysis for me is rain. It looks like there's a chance of rain on Sunday Which does introduce more uncertainty. It could be it could lead to more crashes more stuff like that But taking a guy who is plus money for a top 10 I think benefits if there is some moisture in the forecast for Sunday It's not a huge part of it, but it does increase the variance a bit Second is that Hulkenberg has been really fast in qualifying this year broadly He's made it to Q3. So finished inside there qualified inside the top 10 three out of four races Didn't do that last week was just pretty tough But he's overall qualifying really well and as always qualifying matters a lot in formula one He is experienced there may be uncertainty with the rain I think that's enough to make Hulkenberg a plus 250 for a top 10 a pretty good value If you prefer Kevin Magnuson at Haas, he's also plus 250 I'm a bit below the implied odds on Magnuson because my numbers are a bit higher at Hulkenberg, but I think both those guys are interesting So a kind of a home race for Haas I don't know if they're like in theory an American team, but they're more broadly based in Britain But you know we can call it a home race for them So Hulkenberg top 10 plus 250 and then Lance Stroll top 6 and minus 105 the official recommendations I don't mind if you want to add Stroll podium plus a 50 if you want to have some fun But can't make that an official recommendation for the show talking about NASCAR I have not gotten time to run my truck series numbers yet So no truck series recommendations as of now I'll circle back on Twitter probably tomorrow Maybe later not probably tomorrow to put out some truck series betting odds based on my model and the odds that fan dual shifted Between when I was taking my notes earlier on today and now Kyle Larson was five to one. He's now four to one to win So the recommended bet that I had is now gone I'm assuming though that Larson is still five to one elsewhere. Let me just check that really quick to make sure I Can actually justify Still recommend this because he's if he's five to one at fendall. Yeah, okay You can still get five to one on Larson elsewhere four to one at fendall Which is a bummer But if you can still get the five to one elsewhere I would take that and it's the exact same place we were last week I Realized that the odds at five to one even are super short, but it's there for a reason obviously he's gotten snitch to fendall I think that's justified Larson crazy fast in Vegas the first race this year He led 63 laps there and the reason the Vegas mod matters is because it's the lone race Non-drafting version at a mile-and-a-half track so far this year in that race Larson led 63 laps He was also good in the mile-and-a-half tracks last year Even if he wasn't as dominant as he was back in 2021 He won homestead last year finished runner-up in Vegas and Kansas He led 18% of the laps that he ran and that's around where my model has him this week So at four to one not a value at fendall I can't recommend that but at five to one sixteen point seven percent applied odds I think that's still a good number So assuming you can still get Larson to finish Larson to win at five to one or longer. I would take that Again with how fast Hendrick was both in Fontana and in Vegas. I think this is good value So Larson to me if you can get five to one still a good bet there Fandall does not have top ten odds up yet. So every recommendation here is elsewhere Don't tell my bosses, but anyway, there are some numbers like elsewhere Those are Ross Chastain minus 143 at Bet Rivers and AJ Almaninger at five to one that is available at William Hill I believe it bet MGM has that as well Chastain really good on the mile-and-a-half tracks in the next-gen era they've run eight races on a mile-and-a-half track in the next-gen cars and Chastain has five top tens which they sixty two point five percent rates It's implied odds are 58% you could argue that Chastain is unlucky to have just five top tens in that time because he has had a top ten average running position in Every single race thus far all five of those top tens where he did finish there were seventh or better So not just squeaking by he's had five finishes a seventh or better three podiums I do have some value on Chastain to win a 12 to one Let's see if he's lengthened because if he lengthened to make space for For Larsen shortening he did not he's still 12 to 1 I could consider Chastain 12 to 1 as being a recommendation given that There is a bit of value there But I think the top 10 odds at minus 143 or better Chastain super fast in Vegas did not finish top 10 But had a fifth place average running position there So I think it'd be fast this week too. So Ross Chastain minus 143 that is available at Bet Rivers He's also minus 150 William Hill shops don't mind that either AJ almond Dinger has mentioned the other one is five to one The college cars last year down the stretch really fast in the playoffs on the mile-and-a-half tracks So they're both Dinger and with Justin Haley Dinger top ten in both homestead in Vegas. He had a podium actually in homestead Justin Haley finished third in Texas and he was also eighth in Vegas this year the one mile-and-a-half track Though that one is pretty fluky his average running position was 19th. So That was not based on speed just benefited from some late-race I think he took four tires and everyone else took two something like that be benefited from some chaos towards the end Dinger though specifically his implied odds for a top 10 are 16.7 percent. I've got him at 22.4 percent That's enough value for me to dive in so I like Kyle Larson It's me can get five to one somewhere and I think you can based on what I'm seeing right now I like Chastain top 10 at minus 143 at Bet Rivers and I like Dinger top 10 at five to one Which you can get at that MGM and William Hill So kind of a bummer when things move mid-recording, but you can't still get it elsewhere So shop around and Kyle Larson if you can get five to one still that is going to be my favorite bet for this week That's all we've got here on the uncovering the spread for today Want to give a big thank you to Austin cast for singing by Breaking down his thoughts on the EPL and the UCL find him on Twitter at Austin cast and check out his work over at number fire If you got any questions for me, I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-i-m-s-a-n-n-es as mentioned I should have some truck series stuff up there as well not sure if we'll find value But we'll always post my sims over on the truck series side of things later on this week Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast check out the Kentucky Derby show with Christina Blacker over on the fandom YouTube page and on covering the spread if you like what you hear Hit the thumbs up on YouTube or give us a five star rating over on Apple podcasts I want to thank you all for tuning in. We are back once again tomorrow talking some MLB and VA NHL whatever may be on our minds for tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network