 So if we close below the 50-day moving average, guys, there's 30 points of downside, actually. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, giving everybody welcome to another edition of theAxisToTrader.com Wednesday Update Show. Hope everybody is doing well. So, Fed Day, right? We had Fed Day out of the way, not really a lot of clarity, basically kind of reiterating the point that they were ready to add 50 basis points, numerous sessions, blah, blah, blah, blah. So nothing really out of the ordinary. But the big story continues to be kind of what we saw for the last two days going into today's session. And if you guys remember, again, big, big move, very orderly move back to the rising 10-day moving average, bulls reclaimed, had this massive, massive rally. And yesterday, as much as we rallied on Monday, we gave it all the way back on yesterday's session, which kind of led into today's session. That was the most important part. And it doesn't make a difference if we can't make heads and tails of what the price action is, the past of the past. Okay, we don't live there anymore. So once yesterday's session was over, again, as much as I was dazed and confused and couldn't figure out, well, how did we rally so aggressively the night before and only to kind of give it all back without any bounces? And it doesn't really make a difference if there is an answer. The question is what happens next? And going into today's session, I really, like I said in the video last night, I really wasn't sell bias, but I couldn't find any longs, right? I literally couldn't find any longs and everything, my game plan for today, everything was definitely to the downside. We talked about it last night, semiconductors and nano-vax, all these, you know, coin base, all these stocks here. And when I woke up this morning, just like the rest of you guys, you know, the NASDAQ was down, you know, 200 points right from where it goes. So I looked at a lot of the charts that I really liked going to today. And you know, they were pretty extended. So the most important part was, you know, we wanted to make sure that anything that we are selling on the bottom of the range is not above or not expanded, but to below its average shoe range. So for example, AMD, I really liked the bottom of the range here, but it gap so much on its average shoe range. It just wasn't worth pursuing. Same thing for name, for example, like NVIDIA. Although NVIDIA had a really aggressive move down, I really wasn't going to trade it all the way back down to the bottom of the range. So now we had to kind of figure out, well, what's left, right? We obviously believe that the long setup just wasn't part of the game again. And I kind of knew anything was possible, but the most important part was, let's try to find some value. And that's the point of the game. And even sometimes when you make your actionable list for the next day, depending on what the futures do, depending how aggressive they go in that direction, sometimes you could be right in your thesis of, hey, stocks are about to implore, I don't know what he's doing, implore, but start going lower and still not be able to find good value. And today was kind of an important day and it really did show it's not how many you trade, it's how many you trade properly. And although I had six or seven ideas that I really liked coming into today, only three were left, right? And again, that's the most important part. You're not trying to chase the performance of a symbol that's already over exaggerating as average to range. You're still trying to find the levels that you believe can still go lower based on the average to range. And that's kind of where we led to today. And hey, it turned out to be a pretty good session. Yesterday, as much as confusing it was yesterday, you kind of have a short memory and you kind of bring your attention, your focus to the next day. And it was actually a pretty good day. And obviously the name that everybody, well, everybody loves nobody more than me. Tesla was definitely the shining star of the day. But I think from the macro point of view before we get to the pivots, I think going into tomorrow's session is going to be very important. Let me tell you why. So as everybody understands, the 50 day moving average for the exception of the 200, right? The 50 day moving average is an incredible measuring stick of who has really macro control, right? So we had this really, really big move. If you guys remember, we lost the 50 day moving average. And this is what really started, right? You see this guys? This is what really started the sell-off that lasted for about three months. That first close below the 50 day moving average. So when we reclaimed the 50 day moving average on March the 21st, that started another week and a half worth of rallying. So you can see how important this 50 day moving average is going to be for tomorrow's session. So if the bulls wanna keep this going, right? And kind of, you know, kind of shake things off like Rocky Balboa getting punched in the mouth for 11 rounds and come out swinging for the 12th. If the bulls are going to be very productive tomorrow, any sell-off into the 50 day moving average, they have to defend, okay? They absolutely have to defend. And I do believe the first test of the 50 day moving average will get successfully defended. They always usually do, right? The key is what happens after the first test. And that first test could come in the morning. It might not come at all. But usually you get that first test, they trap shorts, they usually rally at a couple of points, two, three points and another candle comes and then you see what happens then. But I think the first candle probably needs to be defended on the 50 day moving average for the bulls to snap back. Now here's the other side of the coin. Again, we don't trade with rose-colored glasses. So it's very, very important to understand what happens and the significance of giving up the 50 day moving average. And if we close below this 50 day moving average, again, all you need to do is reference right over here. Again, first close below the 50 day moving average and it started a three month selling cycle. And if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply, well then you have to believe in the theory that stocks trade from demand and all the way to demand. So if we close below the 50 day moving average guys, there's 30 points of downside action. And if you don't believe it can get there, well, look what happened the last time they lost the 50 day moving average. So yeah, I would say tomorrow's session is probably gonna be very, very important. I would like to take a stab at least the first time around on the 50 day moving average. And you could either look at it via ETF or you can look at it individual names that are approaching the 50. So for example, I'll give you an example today like Texas Instruments, right? Texas Instruments had a big, big sell-off and look where it bounced, right? Everybody see where it bounced? The same low line, the 50 day moving average. And that's my point. You could either do it via stock or you can do it via ETF. So if we approach and successfully test this 50 day moving average, I do believe there will be at least the initial successful bounce. Whether we close below or not to be determined but if we do close below the 50 day moving average there is no room for, there is not gonna be any room for interpretation. That's a big sell signal and that's what the bulls definitely wanna avoid. And if you are a perma bear, that's exactly where you need to see tomorrow's close. So you're not gonna see, in my opinion, you're not gonna see a very cut and dry day tomorrow. I definitely like some shorts for tomorrow. Again, if I didn't like anything to the long side yesterday I'm sure someone's not gonna like anything to the long side tomorrow, at least starting the day. So I'm definitely watching some things to the short side. Let me give you guys some ideas. Let me give you guys some ideas for tomorrow's session. Let me see what I want to share, what I want to share, what I want to share. Yeah, I like this Roblox. I like this Roblox for tomorrow. Again, assuming it confirms, right? It did a good job today holding the bottom of the range here. If Roblox starts losing the bottom of the range you could see how much room it has. Too low. The funny thing is I actually liked too low a couple of days ago on the long side and now it's pretty much the same thing as Roblox. If it starts losing the bottom of the range here this thing has a lot of room to the downside as well. Names like NVIDIA, they could follow through. They could still follow through going all the way down to the 37 level. I definitely want to keep an eye on Tesla. Tesla was definitely the trade of the day today. Again, we'll get to the pivots in a second. But you know, I want to have an open mind tomorrow because I really do understand how important it is for that test of the 50 day. We can't go higher without successfully testing the 50 day moving average and we can't go lower drum roll please without successfully testing the 50 day moving average. So yeah, it's all about the 50 day. It's all our ability to kind of wait to see what happens with the market next. I've been saying this for years and years and years. We're all idiots, right? We're all idiots. Save the house smart dialogue and etiquette for somebody else. I've been doing this for 23 years. Nobody knows what this market's gonna do. The only thing we could do is prepare via data versus technical analysis and patiently wait for our thesis to get confirmed technically. Other than that, our opinions don't even matter. It means absolutely nothing to hear anybody's thoughts about anything. Stocks are either gonna go up or they're gonna go down. It's your process that's gonna be the determining factor whether they go down properly and orderly via your liking. So that's it. So only three pivots today. But again, the most important part was again, it's not how many you trade. It's how many you trade properly. And oh by the way, the pivot today that only mattered to me what really mattered to me was Tesla. So if you guys remember Tesla about a week ago, week and a half ago that started this whole big uptrend which again, God bless was awesome. But if you guys remember Tesla tweeted out, right? This was literally the tweet. I've never seen in 23 years any company ever, ever, ever, ever tweet out and say, hey by the way, we're thinking about splitting our stock. What do you guys think? Well, think about it like that. I'm just kind of paraphrasing. So my question was, well, what do you think was gonna happen for the person composing this tweet? What do you think was gonna happen to the stock when you put this out there in the tweeter sphere? They obviously knew what was going on. This is very suspect, man, you can't do this. I've never seen, and I said this that day didn't make a, you know, didn't make a difference. I still participate to the upside. But the point is I've never seen a company ever tweet out Tesla will ask shareholders to vote for this year's annual meeting to authorize additional shares. I mean, what did you, again, what did you think was gonna happen when this tweet? I will not be surprised. And I'm completely speculating here. I will not be surprised at some point, whether it's this week, next week, next month, two months from now, I would not be shocked if you guys remember going back to this video. I would not be shocked if Tesla comes out with another quote unquote tweet and saying, well, after further discussion, we don't believe our board of directors at this time will be beneficial to split our shares. I would not be shocked. And I tell you, I've never, and I ask somebody that works in compliance. And, you know, basically in compliance. And they said, yeah, this is not a good thing. So we kind of knew that. I was always been suspect. So 1066, if it builds below can flush, keep this in mind, this tweet was very shady, very, very shady by the company's Twitter account. They knew what was about to happen, right? So 1066, if it builds below can flush, this thing was awesome, absolutely awesome. It traded down into the 30s. So 1066 was the whole bottom channel here. You see that guys? 1066 was the low from April the 1st. And once it broke, once it took out that April 1st lows, this thing just got absolutely destroyed. You know, I thought it was gonna get down to the mid 30s, got down all the way down to 1027. There's a little bit more room to go, but it kind of closed in the middle of the range. But boy, oh boy, just a phenomenal move. Just Tesla, again, if you can show me and you can find me a better stock to trade on both ways, I'll be more than happy to entertain the thought. But an amazing move. NVACs, we talked about this last night. 6450, if it builds below can flush. Here was NVACs. Right, we talked about in last night's video. So it took out to 64 and all the way down to 59, just a phenomenal, phenomenal move. Congratulations for all you guys who caught it. Coin 171, if it builds below can flush. That was the pre-market lows. I liked it originally below 76, but it gapped out to 71. Still had enough average to range. So 71 was the pre-market low, went all the way down to 65. Nice move there as well. And I think that's it, right? I think that's it. And I said, I'll put in additional channels as they develop. This is too big of a gap down. And guess what? I didn't wanna chase down the market. But again, after Tesla, you really don't have to. Again, if you're gonna trade one, that is the one. So going into tomorrow, again, very, very important that 50-day moving average is definitely going to be the line in the sand. And it all depends who crosses it, who reclaims, and who starts building either over or under. Guys, have a great night. If you guys remember, Thursday nights are usually my night off. So there is no video Thursday nights. Guys, have a great night. Hope everybody had a great trading day. Have a great trading day on Friday. And I will see you a lot of you guys on the weekend update. Take care, guys. Have a great night.