 We made it week one is finally here of the 2021 NFL season We got bucks Cowboys coming tonight But a full slate coming your way on Sunday with 13 games to choose from there's a lot to dissect a lot to break down But what we're here today to do is to let you know our favorite plays each position Let you know the game's looking to stack injuries to track and all of that to get you set to win some money on Sunday welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon Gondola he is the managing editor for number fire calm Brandon week one It is here season four or five or whatever the heat check. Are you doing today? I'm good. I think it's maybe season five. Yeah feel I don't know Every year with you is is a joy. So it feels like no time has passed Brandon, of course Yes, because we're just great friends on and off the show I've never fought with you on air about Todd Gurley versus Wayne Gaulman. That's never happened. You know, it's it's all good Yeah, I mean honestly, you know, I think it's really cliche to say oh, it's finally here We're so excited to like put all this into practice, but I've become a little bit I don't know if jaded is the right word, but I'm just glad that I don't have to do any more season long analysis Yeah, no more season long drafts. I had one each the past two nights I'm just glad I don't have to think about season long sleepers and like breakouts It's like I want to talk about the upcoming slate break it down one week We're right or wrong and that's why I've just come to love DFS Exactly. That's what we're here to talk about for today If you are a first-time listener, this is our weekly NFL preview podcast We have these every Thursday They're at 10 a.m. On the Fandle YouTube page if you want you for some reason see our faces Masochistic, but all right do your thing. We are there at 10 a.m. On Thursday We also do a recap podcast every Monday at 9 a.m. That's also on the Fandle YouTube page They go up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that to get that search for the number fire daily fantasy Podcast feed wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe and if you like what you hear or if you win some cash Leave us a rating and review as well our rundown for today. We're gonna do a slate overview quick We'll talk about some injuries that have occurred recently. We're gonna leave aside like the Ones that occurred earlier on this preseason because you probably know about like, you know Trans Etn stuff like that. So we'll leave those ones aside, but there were some impactful injuries on Wednesday We're go through bookmaker info mostly talking like game stacks and stuff like that We'll talk about trends the trends discussion for today will be pretty heavily processed based because we know a lot of you probably Haven't played NFL DFS before maybe this is your first time around so first of all welcome We're gonna talk about our process individually because Brandon I do tend to align pretty well in terms of process, but we'll let you know why we do the things we do specifically when it comes to game stacking when it comes to running backs and stuff like that we're gonna talk about some Weather and then finally close up with a position by position breakdown of our favorite place on the slate Let's start things off here by talking about this slate overall And I think Brandon it's probably best to zoom out and talk about week one in general because week one is a bit of a unique Beast so what is the key thing for you this week entering your lineup building process? It's weighing on your mind I think the the main thing for week one is that there Shouldn't really be as much consensus, but there feels like there is consensus and you know step one of probably everyone's research Stems from bookmaker odds and like over unders and pie team totals and looking there I'll talk more about that and how accurate week one is compared to other weeks, but I really think that this is the week where You can justify your view a little bit better So I'm gonna say look at these games in detail and look at the ones where you say this total is high And I don't think it should be this high or potentially this total is low Because the offensive expectations for these two teams aren't super high or the defense is rated out well last year And I actually think that's a mistake. You're gonna be able to do that more easily In week one then you will be in other weeks, you know by week four We're gonna know who's getting targeted You know barring injuries, we know where the ball is going who's playing running back snaps We don't really know that in week one So I think this is the kind of the week to take your stance and maybe cross off some games that other people love or Circle some games that other people are crossing off yeah, I think that admitting that the consensus can be wrong is a good thing here and Allowing yourself to be different and I think that the tough part with that in terms of NFL is FOMO The fear of missing out on a big game because like a lot of the guys who are popular are popular for a reason They could have a big game you have to be okay Missing out at times because I think that there are some guys who although they're in good situations they may not be in great situations and We'll talk a lot about game environment throughout today That's a broad term we use to decide like is it a fantasy friendly scoring environment Like do we expect a lot of plays we expect a lot of points I think that to me if I'm trying to find a place to be different Prioritizing good game environments over questionable ones is a key and that's going to lead me to Potentially being lower than consensus on a couple of popular plays this week I just checked out fan share sports to see who's getting buzz and I will be lower on several guys in the top of the board So I think finding ways to be different on a slate where we're gonna be wrong A pretty decent number of times is a key for this week. Let's talk about some injuries Specifically looking at the Wednesday injury reports that came out AJ Brown did not practice on Wednesday Apparently was just for rest, but Brandon It does make me a little bit of easy that a guy is not practicing what week one on Wednesday I know AJ Brown last year did miss a lot of practice as like a maintenance type thing It at least like it got my attention I'm still good with that game and with him any concerns for you around Brown based on the info we have right now Um, I mean, it's one of those where Like AJ so AJ Brown is an amazing receiver, but at times last year He was injured and really feel like the first eight games Corey Davis was as Involved if not a little bit more involved As AJ Brown and now they have Julio Jones and Julio Jones I love Julio Jones, but probably just going to get more and more banged up throughout the season So I'm gonna talk about somebody's probably not gonna practice a lot Um, I I would have if AJ Brown was a full go Easily easily preferred AJ Brown to Julio, but I think this puts This just puts Julio a little bit more on my radar I think it's salary 7 000 on Fandall, but if AJ Brown's a full go I'm gonna go there. I like this game. We both like this game a lot So I'm not gonna scare myself off of AJ Brown Until we find out that he's really not practicing the rest of the week Yeah, if he's full in practice like today on thursday sick wheels up, baby The he's in the well loaded tier at wide receiver for this week. The high side wide receivers are stupid good Yeah, and for anyone who's just joining us or anyone who's forgotten in this house We pay up at running back. Correct. Um, however However, this week a little bit different with the value have it running back and the elite receivers we got honestly Yeah, it's it's a fun slate for receiver and I am more than happy to indulge this week Austin Eckler did not practice wednesday. He's got a hamstring injury. I didn't know about this before wednesday personally I don't know if you did but uh, it was a hamstring that kept Eckler on the sidelines for a long stretch of last year So the fact that it's a hamstring is a little concerning Assuming Eckler plays Does this weigh on your mind? It's a pretty tight game between the between Washington and the chargers Would you take swipes at Eckler? Would you take swipes at justin jackson if Eckler can't go? How are you in the situation based on what we know right now? Um, I don't particularly love this game. Anyway, um, I probably not alone in that just because the total is pretty low but and this will probably the last last time I mentioned my season long teams, um, but I Was drafting last night and I was the the 105 and a 12 teamer and Eckler was still there in the second round And I just was like this is incredible value. Yeah But I I passed on him just because I didn't want to bog my Like bog down a team with that but I I think that it probably tells me enough that i'm worried that even if he's a you know Listed as a full go. He might not really be Um, a full go for a week one. They might try to limit him. So I'm probably out on Eckler either way. I think that um We were talking about You know, if we look at Austin Eckler relative to his salary, he's under salary I think that that's fine to say he is seven thousand dollar or six nine hundred dollars Um, nice But I think that like if you look at his role his projected role in that offense That's under salaried But the game environment despite it being a pretty high-paced game on both sides I think that it's going to be Defensive heavy. So You know, if we can I was talking before about how there might be some guys So i'm lower on the consensus as a result of game environment. I could see Eckler being that guy Similar discussion for Washington Curtis Samuel actually before we do that Uh, would you use Justin Jackson if Eckler can't go because I probably wouldn't I think it'd be more of a committee type thing As much as I love Uh, my boy Justin Jackson. I feel like I would be worried that he'd be splitting Like impactful touches with others Yeah, I think I'd probably be out. We have a lot of value at running back or or enough Um, to get us going so i'm probably not going to chase that and again That kind of just goes back to Eckler if he does play they there's no reason to give him like a 90 snap rate If he's already dealing with hamstring injury. So Yep Yeah, okay same game here Curtis Samuel dealing with a groin injury all off season Seems like he may have re-injured it in practice on wednesday. So I'm guessing he probably doesn't go That would boost the target appeal for terry mclauren and logan thomas But again Not the world's best game environments facing a brandon's daily defense that has a lot of good individual players who are healthy For the first time in a long time So what's your view on mclauren and thomas here under the assumption that we don't see kurt as sanyl make his debut this week Um, so I mean logan thomas ran a ton of routes last year tight end terry mclauren I've really been a fan of his for you know a long time I was a little bit of an early adopter, but I was also late on him a little bit I just kind of changed my tune right away. Yeah when I saw what he was doing So I'm pretty I'm usually pretty high on terry mclauren Um, but I think we got what 13 games on the main slate um I don't really want to go with one-offs in games that project poorly if i'm playing terry mclauren Uh, or your logan thomas a little bit easier to justify because tight end is really bad outside the top three Or at least really volatile outside the top three If i'm game stacking this game, I would play terry mclauren plenty But I don't think i'm going to get there So I don't really want to bog down line-ups with guys They one-off plays in these games that i'm really not into I think that's where i'm at as well partly because like there are guys around mclauren in games I do want to stack we got julio jones right there tyler lockett is there. I think that's a fun game kind of uh sneakily DJ morris game is more attractive. I know that like, you know, it's not the best offenses But like I think that game is more enticing We know that beckham who I love this week match for your thoughts. I like him a lot at 6500 dollars So we've got good options around there and games. I want to stack logan thomas Like you said tight end is a bit less process oriented in terms of like Strictly being game stacks for me wide receiver I kind of need them tied to someone else in their game For the most part or at least to like someone else in their game tight end is less so so I think that thomas is easier to justify for me Yeah, if you're not playing if you're not playing uh travis kelsie george kittle or depending on how you feel kyle pitts um You're basically just hoping for a touchdown in like maybe 50 yards or something Um, so any like tight ends are very different But I think yeah, I just wanted to reiterate Where I would be much more willing to play uh logan thomas than terry mclauren I think that's where i'm at as well. Finally seiquan barkley was limited in practice on wednesday kenny galladay was limited Have an anger of mispractice Super low total game any interest for you and seiquan in the comeback season or any of the other giants here Or does this just boost the the broncos defense with galladay and anger being banged up? Probably boost the broncos defense more than anything their whole like kind of skill position uh Like unit has been kind of Not really healthy any galladay said flat out. They might be slow to start No, it's it's not so, you know Seiquan barkley we could look back and be like, oh, he was the the You know unpopular gem who just broke out and had 25 fandal points But the odds of that are pretty low in this game environment. So I think i'm out I have like projected aggregate offensive efficiency for each game. This is the worst in the main slate by a pretty wide margin So, uh, that's tough for a good game environment and i'm okay Being lower on that one as a result We did switch things up this year in terms of the rundown the order in which we go last year We would do the trends first talking about things that are standing out role changes and stuff like that this year We're going to do bookmaker info first and the reason we're doing that is because Our process revolves so heavily around finding good games and a lot of that since bookmaker info So we're going to start things off with the bookmaker info and talk about three games that are pretty interesting starting off with the highest total on the slate That is the browns in the cheese up to 54 and a half it opened at 53 went down to 52 and a half Shot up to 54 and a half So that is two points higher than every other game on the slate Also interesting because we want to stack high scoring tight games Is the browns are suddenly only five and a half point dogs. Do I agree agree with that? Not necessarily Do I find it interesting? I do so brandon are you as high on this game as bookmakers? And is it the top game stack on the slate for you? Yeah, I mean i'm about as high Um as as they would be but I don't think that's the top game stack That's the game we'll talk about next but you know One thing that Can get lost in the shuffle with trying to break down 13 games and look at all these different individual matchups is There are certain teams that are just really good for daily fantasy And the chiefs are one of them not necessarily just because they're an amazing offense But because you look at a game with the where the chiefs are playing and you say If I like them i'm gonna play patrick mahomes tyrie kill and travis kelsie And that's basically it unless we learn something different, but those guys account for so much of their offense Um, you could you could sell me on edwardsy lair Um for this week, but that's basically what you're looking at and so From that perspective, I think there's a ton of appeal for the chiefs Which again like the easiest thing you could ever say but Don't lose sight of how Like if this team goes off it's going to go through those three guys Yeah, I would say that like Because michael harman's salary is so low like in game stacks. He makes a lot of sense Because we've seen him run a decent number routes in the precinct of the first team. He's not been like a Fully great role and he was limited in practice with an oblique injury on wednesday But like I'd expect a role expansion from where he was last year and to him not to be like Just a guy who we use when tyreek hill is out. He could be have standalone type value as well So I think the hardman worked for game stacks, but like you said, you know where the ball is going and it's going there a lot So I think that's tremendous. Uh, as far as that the other thing too that I think boost the appeal in the chiefs Is that I've got salary to burn this week because I don't need to jam in Three different running backs and $8,500 or higher I can go with one of those studs and then get two guys in the the ch range, you know It's 60 $6,800 on down. I can do pretty easily for this week specifically So I think that that is very enticing for me as far as running it back with the browns Like I think If I'm ranking out the guys in this team, it's odell first by a wide margin for me Nick chubb is $7,700 and that's a lot for a dude who does not catch passes in a game where they're five and a half point dogs A little little tougher there austin hooper. I do like the salary on him. He is down at $5,100. So I feel like that's the one downside here is The the bring back options. It's a bit of a narrower group to me Which could be good. I guess because like, you know, you can you can concentrate your exposure That is one thing that stands out as a slight slight slight concern for me Yeah, I mean you want it to be narrow and something I'll talk about in trends is like, you know The the wide receiver threes in in game stacks can really feel like oh this like you want to get access to this guy The odds that they put up huge games are still really low even if you count for salary and I think you and I are both on the same page now at this point in our Um process where we don't really look at floor We don't really want a wide receiver in the 5,000 range to put up 10 points and think that that's like enough because you're gonna miss elsewhere unless you just have like You want guys who can erase your mistakes? Yes So You want few like you want fewer options. Um, so for me, it's going to be obj Um, you know number one like you said now kareem hunt. Um, and it was revenge game for him Oh, yeah And nick chubb like they kind of had a bit of a role reversal late Like down the stretch and you could look at nick chubb getting more targets But he really didn't change a whole lot with his route rates So I think that's probably a little bit misleading and kareem hunt was actually really involved in the red zone down the stretch like it's kind of a complicated situation and Usually for us, I think we're We're just typically out on this backfield because if you have two running backs You really have one running back that we want to target. Um and really any game script. So Yeah, i'm probably looking at at uh odell backum and not a whole lot else from the browns Which is why I would rank this not my favorite game stack. I agree. I would also say the one positive for chubb is that He is more viable than other running backs in game stacks because if he pays off it's because of a long run Which doesn't burn clock Uh like for some other guys like they may depend on like these like a lot of volume nick chubb can pay off like real fast So like I think that he will be someone I use More limited in game stacks. I will not have him as a standalone play. I think that's where I'm at I don't know if i'm using this. There's a lot. I don't know if i'm ever using right But I don't know if that's a galaxy brain thing where like if nick if nick chubb like has a good rushing game They're not burning clock because it's a long rush. So I mean I I only do that for like chubb and henry Like they're those only two guys to me who are like capable of like being like, oh, okay Here's a 70 yard or sick. Thanks guys Yeah, I was hoping we wait a little bit longer to talk about Derek henry, but no he's awesome this week So let's talk about him right now and talk about the best game stack of the week that is the cardinals versus titans total they're 52 and a half and There has been some recent money on the under and it is lower in other books as total is but The john sheeran and the people at f-andals sportsbook keeping this one steady 52 and a half The spread is three points pretty even money on both sides here I love this game. I think it is my favorite game stack of the week No real concerns from me there. Uh, are you also ranking this number one? I am Um, yeah, I just think that it's the the easiest game to stack And it's just as about as likely to kind of erupt is the game. We just talked about You also pretty much know where the ball's going Um for rooms as well and that's again a key part of game stacking is there are certain games where it's like You know, it could be any one of these four receivers including a tight end or something We don't want to get that here It's going to be Deondre Hopkins if uh, we're looking at wide receiver for the cardinals and obviously Kind of Murray with his rushing ability just has such a high high floor and high ceiling um, and then you kind of just Throw it back with with the other with the other side with agia brown if he's healthy julio tannahill and darry canry so like You know, this isn't going to erupt if Because anthony furksher goes for three touchdowns. I don't think it's probably not going to work that way But maybe it will Furksher's role in the preseason really bothered me. So i'm not going to be going there personally but I think that this game like I Think it's very possible my two favorite quarterbacks in this later in this game Should I probably put my homes above tannahill? Yes. Am I going to not sure yet? I think tannahill is pretty sick So I think that to me Kyler Murray is the best play on this slate like if I am rolling out a single entry lineup Kyler Murray is the first person I put in it. I think that he is It's just such a good option because like I did a I do a research study each year looking at where the public invests In which players send them a perfect lineups the public heavily under invests in quarterbacks to our slight underdogs because they don't have the highest implied totals stuff like that and Kyler has that he's in a great game environment. He is facing a Defense. I don't fear too much. I know they've added some guys, but like, you know, how much of an upgrade? Were they truly so I think that that kyler Murray is the number one quarterback of this week I think the ryan tannahill at least in contention for two he and my homes right in there and With murry, I know I could stack with the undre hopkins I think the chase edmonds is a viable lower salary play for this week Under the hopes that he gets like an awesome eclor type role from last year where The yardage itself can make him pay off and he just needs to You know if he can get a score from like seven yards that we could be in the money But I think that that's that's why I'm so into this game again Kyler number one for me among all quarterbacks this week I would say Among bring back options. I would go with aj brown one followed by derrick henry followed by hulio How would you rank the titans in terms of bring back options if you're going kyler at quarterback? um So that would probably depend a lot on just popularity honestly, um I think because there are Plenty of receivers who can match aj brown hulio jones from an upside standpoint, but very few who can do it for derrick henry I would probably put henry first um And then build around receivers from other games. I think it's a little bit easier, but I would probably go henry hulio aj brown Yeah, I I think that's fair to you. I think they're all three very similar 800 dollars in salary for receiver Goes a long way this week even even though we do have Value at running back and and quarterback if you want to go that that way, but I think you and I are probably we're pretty set on kind of paying up at the position at this point to get access to that upside so Yeah, I think hulio has a little bit more of of Uh, a little bit more appeal Um for me this week and hulio has been healthy recently Uh, he was banged up a bit at the beginning of camp, but like it seems like he's had enough time to get ramped up And where we can feel comfortable with him This report tana held the reason that i'm a bit lower is because I think that it does take a bit of time to develop that Like key chemistry between a quarterback and a wide receiver. So that's why I have hulio lower But I'm not I think they're all three in the same tier in terms of stacking for this game They're just gonna go play some pitch and catch gym. Don't over complicate it Sure, bud. Uh, we got one neutral side game this week That is uh in jackson though where the saints are playing the packers that line shifted to green bay minus four at the venny shift It's now three and a half totally here down to 49 and a half down to smidge from 15 and a half and it opened You know, I think that we've seen some it's moving on the under we had dr Eric eager on our covering the spread betting podcast yesterday He said he liked the under for that game before it went down to 49 and a half so I see more paths to an under here than I see paths to an under for Cardinals titans or for chiefs browns But we have some interesting guys here. We got album camaro with no michael thomas With no latinius murray got marquess callaway got the packers guys Are you looking to stack this game or are you in the same camp as me where there are some slight concerns tugging at you here Um, this one didn't rate out as well for me as the two games. We just talked about I You know, it's a it's a really big risk to take away and see approach when it comes to daily fantasy and you can really gain an edge by you know Making those assumptions that we talked about at the top of the show But I think a lot of people are assuming that marquez callaway myself included is going to be very involved So, you know, he's probably going to be very popular Um, we don't know what the the offense will really look like when james winston gets out there in week one game time And honestly, I mean would we be surprised if like tason hill still likes deals? High leverage snaps from james. So like I can't be surprised if he didn't right so like I'm not probably going to be in on james much at all this year unless I see something that just like really Changes my my my tune uh right now, but I mean, I think this is more of a mini stack game For me because i'm probably not going to get to either quarterback. So I'd be looking at uh alvin chimera for sure marquez callaway and then You know historically I've been low on erin jones, but with octomall williams and adding an aj dillon there That kind of solidifies erin jones from a receiving role, which is very very very very important even fandal Which is a half ppr site. It's targets matter a lot for running backs So I think that erin i'm going to be higher on erin jones than I really ever have been before Where do you rank chimera among the higher salary backs? You don't have to like do you like Oh one two three four five because like that's on the spot, but like Do you put him above henry cook mccaffrey? Where are you viewing him in the context of those guys for this week? I think he might be number one at salary. Okay. Um mccaffrey Obviously, I don't I don't want to like forget how good christian mccaffrey is whenever he's healthy We saw that last year, but I think at salary chimera just feels like the best option The one The one Counterpoint I have to chimera is I don't like this game environment as much as the titans and the cardinals and I also I I might be stupid for this. I don't like it as much as angles Sangles vikings. I like that's why I yeah, I might put chimera second behind dalvin 800 is a lot. You're right. You're fully right, but I just like the game environment more. I think dalvin is also equally like disgusting so I think I go dalvin over alvin, which is tough to say, um But I put alvin above henry. So to me I think that upper tier is dalvin one alvin two henry three mccaffrey four just because the salary is is there's a gap there Yeah, that's that's really hard to get to even with the value, you know, you're gonna have to Take a value quarterback and you know If you're coming along from season long, maybe this is like the first dfs show you really listen to, you know You can match some high end upside or like a replace ability with value quarterbacks streaming quarterbacks like in that sense, but the true 30 plus point games that you really need to kind of Score really well in tournaments those come from guys with rushing ability Or the ability to throw for like five touchdowns randomly in a game. So You know, it's really it's really hard to get to mccaffrey and I think honestly You know years ago, we would just lock in christian mccaffrey and figure it out from there But with the quarterback landscape right now, I think that's actually gonna be harder to do if mccaffrey's healthy all year Yeah, um, I will say that you can build a lineup with mccaffrey And like I have a kyler and nuke stack in here Um, it does force you to spend down a tight end, which I'm okay with for this week There are some guys who have good roles down there I would like to get to kiddo personally and kelsey and stuff like that, but like I'm okay So I think that what I will get to mccaffrey. I will have him in my lineups But I think the broader takeaway is I want at least one of those four and I say at least meaning I'm okay with two I want at least one of those top four guys in every single line of this week. Is that a fair Fair thing for you to say as well. Yeah I think that top four is such a tier above um, and again similar to quarterback like Only a few running backs can really break open a slate And it's going to be one of these four or maybe like a nick chub if he scores three times from the one yard line, but We're not going to be astonished if one of these four is a must have so I'm with you clear top four I am higher on uh, alvin chimera than you are Slightly yeah, but like, you know, it's all pretty pretty pretty tight up there. Are we talking bengal's vikings at all? I don't think specifically we have some positional plays there But I think just briefly before we move on to the the trends discussion I had this game number three for stacking right now Uh, bengal's vikings. I think if I look at my projected offensive efficiency, that's the third best game on the slate and I'm okay trusting that given the bengal's When joe burrows healthy tend to be pretty Pass even though the vikings will probably be slower this year than they were last year If their defense is a little bit more steady and they're probably gonna try to run the ball But I still think that's number three for me. Is it same for you? Um, no, I would have eagles falcons eagles falcons above this game primarily because Uh For the bengals. I'm probably not gonna play joe burrow I'm not gonna play either quarterback in that game, but I like dalvin t stacks I like jefferson t stacks like jefferson mixon stuff like that Yeah, I think we're really huge on on t higgins, but I don't know how jamar chase is going to I know he's had his issues in the preseason But I don't know how that target here is going to shake out and again It's one of those I can wait and see or I can you know make an assumption I should probably just make an assumption on t higgins who I love anyway But that for that reason, I think I'm a little bit lower And for the eagles falcons, I mean that's harder to stack too, but it would be basically jail and hurts And then like calvin ridley. So yeah You can you can find logical ways to get to that one So let's move now to our trends discussion again. We're gonna keep this pretty process based We will have some applications of it in the discussion afterwards But um brandy you mentioned at the top that we can be wrong Especially in week number one and so you dug into this looking at Betting markets for week one how they perform relative to other weeks. What did you find me looked into that data? Yeah, I mean like so it's it's it would be like really silly if if like in week 11 I was like, hey, what's the Hit rate of like week 11 spreads and overrunters compared to other weeks like it feels really random although Week 11 actually is kind of an ally because it's typically where the Thanksgiving games fall, but Week one is definitely its own sort of beast in a sense. We just know less about teams and that includes those, you know People setting the lines So I pulled historical overrunters spreads implied totals and a few other like high high level team stats Things like points scored across all games since 2000 Bucketed them by regular season week 1 through 16 Um and here are a few things that I found that I think might be uh notable The average week one spread is 2.1 points, which is the fifth tightest across the sample Um, I think that probably indicates if I can read into it properly that there's just uncertainty of you know, which teams are truly good You'll probably see like, you know, we're not seeing huge spreads even though there probably should be some bigger spreads on the slate um Or you know, overall week one too not just this slate, but um, so I think that things are a little bit tighter Uh, then then then we would typically see otherwise the average week one over under is lower than any other week as well 42.8 points. I know over unders climbing Historically, but this all was you know, at least baked in Relative to you know year to year and the average point total for week one games was just 42.6. So it actually underperformed the lowest You know over unders that we typically see so um, that was the second lowest average point Total points that we see in a game. So basically scoring expectations are low and scoring itself is actually low In week one week ones also historically been one of the few weeks where home teams fall shy of their implied team totals and again, if you're new to dfs or Implementing, you know bookmaker stuff implied team total is just to over under minus spread and then divide that by two But away teams do outperform that by about point two points on average That's about middling, but that that implies that home teams typically overvalued in week one long term again overs Have hit at the fifth lowest rate among all weeks from weeks one through 16. So again, all of this is basically saying scoring can be low And home teams are typically a little bit over inflated so far And then the only other week where a game is less likely to score at least 55 total points is week 11 Again, that's probably the thanksgiving angle. So we just don't really see a whole lot of eruptions Teams that score at like at least 30 points that rates down from your your overall average So Basically all of that. I know it's a lot of information to process, but i'm gonna sum it up here. So what i'm seeing is Week one games are usually tighter Then we would see otherwise. So I think there's a lot of that uncertainty and just uh, you know hesitancy to make these spreads as big as they would be Even in week two once we learned some information about these same teams playing each other Home teams probably a little bit overvalued and fewer games most likely should erupt so I think for me that means i'm not gonna be Uh chasing the implied team totals of home teams as much as I typically would be Be a little bit more hesitant a little bit more confident. Um to to kind of cross those games off For me and then also I kind of want to narrow things down because if fewer games are going to erupt I want to make sure that when I do hit that I have exposure to those games So it could be kind of an all or nothing week, but that's kind of what i'm seeing so I just wanted to address it because just because Uh, we're gonna we we just talked about all this information and how to use it So and week one is a little bit of an outlier. So that's something that I wanted to to bring to your attention I don't know if any of that would affect your strategy at all No, I think that it goes in line with what my strategy was where I think that I want to be pretty narrow this week Which again, you know, we're talking about admitting the fact that you could be wrong I don't think this is Saying I'm right. I think it's saying I want to capitalize if I'm right Yes, and that's what I'm trying to do by having a more narrow player pool For this week and I think that that does back that up because like again I think when you look at this slate I can see paths to unders for a lot of games Which does go along with what you were saying where we want to be narrower. So I think that what it does for me is reinforces that I want to be tight specifically a quarterback I want to have like right now. I might have three quarterbacks. I can talk myself very easily into a fourth guy very easily, but I can see a path through under in that game as well as jalen hurts. He'd be number four for me. So I think to me it reinforces I should be tight with my core specifically a quarterback I should be okay. There are some games with lower totals that have gotten talked up Um, specifically jets jets jets panthers, which I get I think that it's uh, There are reasons to be interested in that game But I feel like it's a situation where maybe it's getting pumped up due to potential rather than like, you know I think people are assuming that game will shoot out But it sells a 44 and a half point total and just went down a point So I might be lower on that game in general than others as a result of you know Both just what I think of that game, but also what you're talking about here where Not a lot of games we should expect to just blow up here Yeah, and so something else I'll talk about later in the transaction is you're taking some stands and Like narrowing things down because it's very easy to fall into the trap Especially in week one where you don't want to start off week one with a complete dud Of a week and so you have that as you as you mentioned before the fomo that just that fear of like I gotta have some ross I gotta have some you know, josh allan. I gotta have you know some exposure to all these guys It's not really a great strategy. And yeah this week, you know, we're gonna see some of these games probably If history holds just fall shy of their totals and a few games are still gonna go off And so, you know, for example, we've talked about some games at the top But like if you if you're looking at the seahawks colts at the you know, 50 and a half over under and you're like I think that's too high You should feel better saying that this week than you would in like week four whenever Things are getting more efficient. Like these lines are getting more efficient. Yeah, I think that um That's correct. When you were talking to me in the off season, we were talking about just processing generally like hey I think I'm gonna like pare down my player pool a quarterback to be like three guys per week I was I was like, I don't know if I'll like like I get the thought process. I'm not sure if I'll get there This week at least I'm there. I think that that's right way to play things Let's move now to my first trend and talk about value running backs because there are a lot of running backs with lower salaries this week who you can feel good about guys who have experienced role changes due to injuries or stuff like that and We've got undervalued guys and in general the public is pretty good at predicting which lower salary backs will perform Well for dfs if you look at like hit rates of popular lower salary backs The public does a very good job of selecting which guys to take but I think that Because we have some options here We can afford to be selective make sure we are Getting ceiling out of our value plays because if you want to have a tournament winning lineup You need guys who can score a lot of points no matter what their salary may be over the past three years 47 running backs have made a perfect fan dual lineup with a salary of $6,500 or lower Those guys have averaged 27.2 fan dual points per game again $6,500 or lower average 27.2 fan dual points per game not a single player in that time Scored less than 17.5 fan dual points only two of them scored less than 20 fan dual points So 45 out of 47 scored more than 20 fan dual points and week one specifically All the guys who are value plays made the perfect lineup scored at least 23 fan dual points They averaged 28.6 fan dual points So basically putting this in the like most basic terms possible You need a lot of points even from your value plays To hit a perfect lineup and not every player can hit those kinds of scores You need to get a lot of points to get 20 points like let's say here We are looking at Gus Edwards not in this slate so I could pick on him Let's say we think Gus Edwards is going to pop off and score 20 fan dual points For a guy who doesn't catch past passes That is 140 rushing yards and a touchdown or 80 rushing yards and two touchdowns The value plays who made perfect lineups averaged 3.7 receptions for 37.4 yards per game So you can get big games from guys who don't catch passes because 8 of the 47 value plays had just one catch One of them had none But those nine players who had one or zero catches averaged 144 rushing yards and 1.9 rushing touchdowns You need them to go bananas to make it without passing game volume So I am good at looking at some value backs this week But I need them to have a path a clear path to a 20 point game Look at that player ask yourself Can this guy get me 20 fan dual points if the answer is no Cross them off your list. I don't care how popular there. I don't care how how great their floor is It does not matter cross them off and that path is a lot easier to envision if the back catches passes least for me So that's why my process Is going to be heavily dependent on passing game backs if there is a value back who I think will catch passes Get some good work on early downs as well. I will be very okay with them But they do need to clear those hoops for to be viable for me Brandon. What about you? What is your process when it comes to value running backs? Yeah, I mean we talked about this already at least I brought it up We have kind of just gotten to the point where we don't Believe in floor so much because floor can evaporate very easily especially in the end of floor is a dirty word. Yeah so you need that upside and upside comes from production and Production comes from opportunities and we know that even though again fandal half ppr site Targets matter for running backs like even if it was a standard scoring site You still get points for the yardage that they accumulate. So like looking like downplaying targets At a site that isn't full ppr is not a good process to begin with but last year the and you know I'm getting to your adjusted opportunities, but last year the average running back carry Um accrued about 0.6 fandal points and it was about 1.1 per target for for running backs So we basically you know or jim specifically Doubles targets compared to carries cause those adjusted opportunities I don't know if you should probably find a new word for that because it's it's it's hard for me to say it Adjusted opportunities Well, you know, I don't want to say opportunities. That's a weird word. I think that's the word that stumbles me like I don't know. I'll figure this out if you have suggestions hit me out because I hate saying Yeah, we'll work on it. But um, yeah, like you want running backs who get targets because We as jim just pointed out you need that for upside unless you have like a super outlier rushing week with All the all that rushing production. Uh, but we also know just that on a you know per play basis Targets are about twice as fruitful for running backs. So yeah for me. I'm also Really looking at running backs who run routes get targets are involved I'm in other ways other than just getting carries. So I'm gonna struggle with gus edwards I'm assuming that you know, he has that role. I know he's honestly, so we're picking on him now But like that's that's an issue, right? And that's kind of the nick chubb thing too Derek Henry were typically a little bit lower on them sometimes Henry we came around about last year. Yes. Yes, and I I said I wouldn't talk about me See the long teams anymore, but I ended up picking inside the top five and both I picked last night Yeah, I haven't been like I haven't been like three of my four season long weeks just because but so i'm a Derek Henry guy this year but uh, yeah, so like You really you have to basically for me be a Derek Henry or nick chub You know rushing wise in order for me to like what you can bring to the table from an upside standpoint So if we're looking at value backs this week, who can check those boxes? I don't think it's the most likely scenario, but I think there is a A scenario where a tray sermon catches passes for the 49ers. He caught some passes in the first preseason game He said to 200 dollars I'm not going to use him much I am okay having some exposure to tray sermon because I think the rushing actual like yardage could be bonkers in that offense behind that line I'm okay with him. Damien Harris doesn't check the list because he's not going to catch passes I don't like that game. I don't like that offense as much So damien harris will not be there. James robinson will catch passes most likely He's probably losing work to carlo side. It's just frustrating. That's why I will very likely be underweight on robinson relative to the field, but i'm okay with him chase edmonds We'll catch passes probably will not get goal line work But I think that he could pay off despite that as a result of the yardage He gets the aggregate yardage from receiving and rushing. I will be okay Using him nonji harris 6500 dollars gonna catch passes gonna get work. He's sick I don't care about the fact. They're six and a half point dogs. He's sick mild sanders Not a value quote-unquote back at 6600 dollars, but I think There is a pat them getting things done. Don't mind that game. I think he works and then also clad edward z layer We talked about him passing before Uh, I think that he will get enough passing game work for me to feel good about him So there are some value packs who I like this week, but I'm trying to keep the list pretty limited If I lop off tray sermon that will not break my heart I would not be shocked that happens, but I would I wanted to mention that I'm considering him digging deeper into him And open to the thought of using him later in the week Yeah, I mean, I like pretty much all those guys I would probably be lowest on mild standards just because of the buzz outside. I'm lowest on him of that group as well yeah, um, and I don't know how I'm gonna feel about the under swift most of the season I don't know if he was actually gonna be healthy, but he got in a full practice On wednesday, so I'm not gonna chase it But he also would profile is typically in a better matchup a better situation, right? So, yeah Okay, let's move down to your second trend and a piece that you wrote this off season for number fire looking at Um quarterbacks stacking how we should stack them and the paths to good games here And I thought it was a really good piece because you dug into the data and try to find try to find How we should play things from a process perspective when stacking specifically so talk us or we found there and what that means for week one Yeah, I mean, this is something that isn't necessarily going to be Like a big revelation But it's also something that I think having data on and really thinking about What this means for our lineups is important and I'm just trying to set the tone for these week one trends next week We'll talk about like a pace and and you know usage that we see is is super relevant, but um stacks start a quarterback. I think that's safe to say, um, you know A stack is basically quarterback plus a pass catcher Running back plus defense also would qualify, but that's actually kind of overrated In terms of like hitting big games. Um, and you can read more about that Um in the piece that I did on number fire But you know, there's correlation there just the huge games are not super common But I went back over the past three years and studied how frequently positions hit Benchmarks that are basically required to be in a not a perfect lineup But a sunday million winning lineup. Um It's about 25 vandal points for quarterbacks 20 for running back 18 for receiver 14 for tight end and 12 for defense But i'm not going to talk about defense here But you know the effect of hitting on a stack is kind of what I want to go over because it's really hard to Like comprehend without data and it makes sense like yeah If my quarterback goes off his receivers are probably going to have a big game And so I want to stack all the time But like there's a little bit more to it than that even though that's technically correct. Um, so You know, I Over that sample from 2018 to 2020 There was about a 30 chance that a team's highest projected wide receiver scored 18 vandal points Um projections coming from number fire when you lock in that the quarterback did Cross that 25 point threshold the odds that receiver Crossed his threshold of 18 vandal points went up to about 54 percent so um If you say Yes, the quarterback is going to erupt The receiver let's let's call it double because I'm gonna it's going to make sense more So let's go the the odds that that receiver won the highest projected receiver His odds go from about 30 to about 60 percent. Um, just for simplicity sake and that qb1, uh, wide receiver one Uh stack was the strongest of anything between a quarterback and as you know any of his other skill position players It's not surprising. I'm not saying it is but You were also marginally more likely to see the the quarterback The quarterback's wide receiver two and wide receiver three hit that 18 point threshold Which is actually kind of it's more impressive for these lower projected guys to get there On the wide receiver two did it about 32 percent of the time when the quarterback hit That compares to 16 percent when the quarterback may or may not have hit So again roughly double for the wide receiver three The hit rate went from 6.4 percent To 14.3 percent so about again roughly double so the odds that whenever Your quarterback has a big game the odds that the receiver His his pass catchers also have a big game kind of double But again for like a wide receiver three and this is something that I would do a lot is like I like this quarterback The wide receiver one his salary is too high. I'm going to play as wide receiver three He's going to be out there running rounds. You know that guy actually puts up again We want that ceiling not just value Other people approach it differently, but you and I we want that we want that ceiling It's still 14.3 likely to get to that 18 point mark And yeah, if we lowered it a little bit to 15 for these wider receiver threes at lower salaries Could still get us there, but like the odds are Not that high for these lower projected players Um, and so that is a key change for me for this year. And yes, it's intuitive But it's also telling that like the the wider receiver three hit rate still really low And actually just a one more quick thought process If you take the top five projected quarterbacks In all weeks, um in this sample According to number fire the top the top five So we're looking at most likely the guys with the highest salaries They hit that threshold at about 37 percent of the time. So let's call it 40 If you play five quarterbacks in a week, you you narrow it down to even five Odds are two of them hit and three of them don't really get you there And without those big games from quarterbacks You're gonna have a hard time. So that is the simplest way I can kind of say Why I'm trying to pare things down and really maximize whenever my stacks hit This is not going to be for everybody if you're playing cash games, you want the best projections I get that but for tournaments. It's I think it's really Important to look at these hit rates and you can read more about this on number fire But I'm really changing my approach. I really want to maximize whenever I do hit and not just be all over the place because of FOMO So that's going to be a big change for me For this year. Um, so my question to you is not did I convince you to change your opinion on anything? But yeah, just what what process changes have you kind of had over the off season? With with your player pool, I mean, I didn't change much But I think that this is like this is something that does like It sticks in my mind specifically for the cardinals titans game like basically telling me don't get too cute like I I I can see ron dailmore being a viable play for this week. Yeah, but also It's de andre freaking hopkins. I have my issues with hopkins. I don't know if I had any season long shares of him Um, I I have concerns given that he's a little bit older, you know Well with some weird stuff going on some weird tweets. Um, so That's that's a thing. Um But I don't want to overthink it and I think that that's kind of the the takeaway for me is if I can get a 60 hit rate from the highest projected wide receiver on the team assuming that quarterback goes off Which is what I'm doing when I put that player my line. I am making that assumption I am okay using that as like a guideline of how I make out my combinations because I I'm a heavily combination based person When it comes to multi-engineer tournaments where I want to go Kyler hopkins julio kyler hopkins aj brown kyler hopkins Henry it can be a guiding light of okay for 60 percent of my kyler stacks put in hopkins And I think that number is higher Then I would have expected therefore I want to use that as like the guiding baseline number and be more aggressive with stacking The quarterback with their top options as opposed to differentiating going elsewhere So I know you didn't ask if you convinced me but like you kind of did like it did it did help I think Yeah, like I mean we find out that rondeo more is just going to be like the widers you were too that hit rates though Quite strong. Sure. Yeah, but if we're looking at you know, I don't want to say the bangles But they're a good example, you know Let's say the salaries are a little bit different like and you like that game you like joe burrow for example you know Tyler Boyd's got his touchdown issues, but like Historically, I would be like, well, I'll just play the the one of the lower salary guys because I can't I can't pay up for Um, the the top receiver. I'm going to be making those changes this year So, um, just because of the data that I came across I will be too and I think it's impactful specifically for this week with the games that I want to stack And I think that's good info to have my second trend is talking about totals because Bookmakers are good at what they do. They have to be to make money So, you know, it's it's a high stakes thing And we should take signals from what they say when filling out lines for this week specifically The most relevant info will be totals because as Brandon mentioned spreads are a lot smaller in week one than other weeks So totals matter a bit more and totals play a key role in deciding which players wind up having a ceiling an anecdotal this makes sense because The more points scored the more touchdown chances for both sides and we need touchdowns for huge dfs days So that's that's that's very obvious in the data back set up Last year there were 136 non defensive players in perfect lineups The average total from those games was 49.996 basically 50 Whereas the average total league wide was 48.1 almost a two point gap there So higher scoring games are better. That's obvious. I'm not going to belabor that point But I think the bigger takeaway is how bad the lower total games were Only one player made a perfect lineup last year with a game total lower than 41 Only 17 out of 136 had a total lower than 45 That's 12.5 of players in perfect lineups came from games the total Lower than 45 the number of games league wide with a total that low was 24 and a half So almost double what wound up being in perfect lineups This is especially key a quarterback of the 17 perfect quarterbacks last year Only one came from a game with a total lower than 48 and again 48.1 was the average total last year only one quarterback came from a game with a total lower than that Despite that more than 21 of all popular quarterbacks in the fan dual sunday million came from games They total of 48 or lower so The public invested pretty heavily in low total games despite the fact we know intuitively Low total games are not good and it was big a wide receiver too So basically we very rarely see big fan dual totals out of players in games of the low total And the public I don't think goes far enough As they should in crossing those lower total games off. So if you want to use a player I would say regardless of position Maybe tight end can be an exception in a game with a low total You had better be getting them at a massive discount or expecting that game to go over that total and if not You're gonna come up short pretty often. So for this week, that's gonna lower me on Some of the 49ers guys, you know, I talked about trace sermon, but it's low salary James Robinson and the Jags. I think that that hurts their outlook Broncos giants dolphins patriots. I am very wary of the Chargers Washington game um, that's the concern and I will say Sam dardle is near the top of fanshare tags right now a quarterback He's not gonna be my player pool for several reasons, but also I think that this this total Consideration is a big part of that. So brandon What is your thought process when it comes to totals? Uh, am I dumb in being kind of wary of this this Jets panthers game, but just overall thought process here So I think I had three things I wanted to say first is I I added a a column to my spreadsheet to search for Uh quarterbacks with totals of at least 48 so that I could just filter out some guys who don't meet that criteria Second with darnold specifically is a really good example of I like Sam darnold for 2021. I think that it's going to be his best season for a lot of reasons I really high on dj more He's got christian mccaffrey to go along with robbie anderson dj more So i'm high on that but he's the kind of quarterback who he's not going to get a whole lot of rushing And he's one of those quarterbacks where it's like, yeah, I'm gonna have some sprinkles of sam darnold in case he You know has a big game That's probably bad process from huge multi-entry and I'm you know Yes, if you look back at like sunday million winning lineups, there's going to be some times where guys like just Overperform drastically, but those are the types of plays. I'm trying to cut out a little bit take more stances um in three I'm correct in that these are Pre-game over unders right these aren't like point pre game over unders pre game expectations. So this isn't even actual points combined which is harder to trust because obviously we don't have that information. So this is just like What we know going in these guys don't really hit and uh, the fourth thing that I just remembered Is that these are perfect lines and perfect lineup analysis, which we've both done plenty of we know is kind of it can be a little bit Uh, I don't want to say disingenuous, but like we know We know that this is just cherry picking the best performances Um, and you would think that the players in these low total games have lower salaries And the very fact that there haven't even been like cherry picked outlier games from these low totals Um, that you know ostensibly coming from these lower salaries. Those guys aren't even getting into the perfect lineup So that's really telling and I think that this is something that should really drive us and yes, it's going to lead us to be a bit chalky um, but honestly Quarterback draft percentages are never as high as they really should be. I think it's typically really dispersed if you go back and look at things so you know, I think you can still have leverage like high leverage lineups, um If you just focus on these games with the higher totals So again like Arnold probably more proper than Kyler Murray Like based on the early fan share tags. I think that's going to happen and I think it's absurd Yes, that's the kind of thing that probably years ago too that we would have been like Talk or at least I would have been like, uh, like sam darnold, but I would too You know, it's I think we're just learning more and more and more and ceiling is everything. Yeah Yeah, I use alex smith in dfs. So I'm just as guilty of this as others. But like, you know We need to evolve. Um, so going along with the darnold rushing point There were four quarterbacks last year in perfect lineups who scored Less than two and a half points via rushing. So like less than 25 yards. No touchdown Those guys, uh, had 315 yards and five touchdowns 377 and three that was on a pretty low scoring week in week 16 502 yards and four touchdowns and four 16 and five If you think that sam darnold can go for four 16 and five eat your heart out go ahead. I just don't think he can Um, and that's why I will be lower on that game in general. Um As a result of this and like yeah, it's Like When sam darnold throws his fourth touchdown on sunday people are going to come at me on twitter But like again, we can't play scared. We kind of have to like play With the best process and I think the best process is being lower on that game higher on several others We'll see how it plays out whether for this week. There are Six games with some wind to monitor. There are no games with wind that scares me right now, but I would check back on the wind for the bills and Steelers For the bangles and vikings for the patreons and dolphins broncos giants chiefs browns packers saints again None of those games are super concerning to me right now from wind perspective 10 to 15 I note I do not automatically divest 15 or higher. I get real nervous real fast We did a trend on wind last year. It ain't great once it gets above 15. So 10 to 15 is okay. It's not ideal, but it's okay um Just keep an eye on those games specifically go to the number fire games and linus page on the dfs tab there Check out the wind speed. See what it says as of right now. No games concerning. Just check back with them Once again on sundays Let's dive in now to our position by position loves for week number one starting off with quarterback brandon One quick change for this this year. We used to do it where we'd only pick um, we couldn't overlap in these plays but that means we're picking six running backs and like There are weeks where I don't use a lot of more than like four running backs So we're gonna tweak it. We can overlap with plays if we both like them with that in mind brandon Who do you like a quarterback this week? I think the four we're gonna mention are our top four They're the only four I would use right now. So uh, but I'm gonna start with patrick mahomes at 8800 It's not a bold stance But we won't always have as much value to get to mahomes and his stacking candidates Like we will in week one. So I don't want to get like too cute and Pass up a chance to play like nazi harris and patrick mahomes instead of whatever that other like 2v2 would look like Take advantage of these value spots. Um, the homes last year was second Adjusted expected points per drop back Ranked fourth and expected Adjusted completion rate, which is basically your expected completions from next gen stats minus drops. So We don't need a whole lot to say that. Um, the homes is is really good We know that but you had 20 plus fandal points in 13 of 18 games all the way up through the super bowl 25 or more in 8 of 18, which is the the kind of threshold that we really need for Sunday million winning lineup potential so that just it doesn't have to be the Sunday million either Just big potential. We want that 25 points. My second love is going to be Jaylin hurts at a salary of 7600 He was dead last in that adjusted expected completion rate among qualified quarterbacks last year, but um Average 24 fandal points per game uh over that four week stretch that he had seventh among quarterbacks Ran 11 and a half times per game 68 rushing yards and faces of falcons defense that last year was 25th in All three of these stats upcoming passing that expected points per drop back passing success rate and opponent adjusted fantasy points per attempt and according to pro football focus They are 32nd in secondary rank and 31st in defensive line rank Not great. Um, and I think that does that does make her it's interesting Again, I think that the reason that I'm I might not get there I will I'm gonna use him at some point But like if I were to lop off a fourth person it'd be hurts because I think there's a a shot that game goes under Pretty decent shot. I actually like the under on that game. So stacking. What's that also stacking I I feel pretty okay stacking with divante Smith. That's the only option really Yeah, that might not be super smart given that he's like a rookie playing the first game But like I just like divante Smith. So I'm gonna do it. I've done plenty of not smart things. That does not bother me at all My love is kyler murray. My two loves are in the same game. So kyler won ryan taniel two I just think this game is tremendous for stacking. It's a super high total 52 and a half tight spread at three points I see a path to the cardinals winning this game. I think I might have bet the money line when I was in Illinois Can't Should probably check. I don't know a lot of weird stuff going on I might have but if we look back to kyler last year before his shoulder injury He had at least 23 fandal points in every game. But again, floor is stupid. We don't care about floor But he averaged 30.1. There are a lot of dudes in this slate who will not score 30 points the entire year That's what kyler averaged before his shoulder injury And again, the public tends to under invest in slight underdog quarterbacks Kyler is the best and I will be using him heavily this week. Number two is ryan taniel because He gives me lower sourd exposure to this game. He did a spike games last year. He had 30 plus points twice He had 25 plus points six separate times. It's a high total tight spread some running juice He has julio jones this year, which he did not have last year New ocea has like passing tendencies in his past I would guess that they still skew towards the run more than we'd like Because they've got derrick freaking henry and they probably should but I think there's a chance that they passed more than they did last year at least so my top two kyler and tanahill mohomes though in the same tier as tanahill and Very very likely to get to jail in hurts this week despite the fact. He is very clearly number four for me Let's go now to running back who you got there I'm gonna go with alvin chimera. I said he was probably my favorite among the top four especially fact Well factoring in salary for sure if not it'd probably be dalvin But uh, even when his receiving workload like we saw his receiving just evaporate last year with tason hillot quarterback still averaged 26.9 adjusted opportunities per game, which was fifth best at the position No running back ran a higher percentage of routes than chimera did in 2020 according to next-gen stats The packers run D's not particularly stout at least they weren't last year 30th and adjusted fantasy points per target, which for me actually adjust on a player level basis Um, so I like that and there's just we know it. There's a lead upside for chimera multiple paths to having a big game From him, so I like him at the salary My second level i'm actually gonna stick in that same game And go with erin jones 7400. Uh, sounds like i'm just obviously higher on this game than you are but um for erin jones You know, I haven't really been His biggest supporter, but without jamal williams. I think that this actually just benefits him a lot He might lose some goal line work to aj dylan more than he did with jamal williams, but he's not going to lose The receiving work and he was top 12 in route rate and was 12th and adjusted opportunities per game last year so Kind of feel like he's game script independent or Whatever, whatever, you know, it doesn't matter what the game script is viable in all scripts. Yes um And my third love is going to be naji harris at 6500. I think he's a borderline lock for like a cash game format just because you know I don't want to say like floor but points per dollar projection. You basically would he's probably gonna pop just about everywhere It's floor, but not at the expense of stealing and I think that's the key differentiator. Yeah, that's that's a very good Not it's not an agent in peterson He so I mentioned that there were 47 backs who made a perfect lineup and only one had no catches it was him He's the dany amandola running backs. That's too good. Uh buffalo Buffalo was 23rd in rushing success rate allowed to running backs last year 29th and adjusted fantasy points per carry The biggest concern you could say is that they're underdogs, but Lots of pre-season buzz and you would expect him to have a big receiving world anyway Yeah, I think that naji is also in mind. He's my number two love for this week Just because the he is under souried relative to both his meeting projection and his ceiling because naji should play every down Buffalo's rush defense is not the strength their team And it seems like they're cool with that because buffalo is a really smart team like kudos their front office They know what they're doing, which means they don't care about stopping the rush as much I think that offensive line gonna be rough against the pass, but I are rough in pass blocking I think they'll be okay in terms of run blocking But like you just don't find undisputed number once that's $6,500 very often so naji harris If you're a pga podcast listener, you know, brand I do a weekly head-to-head called the bobble hat Winner gets a bobble head or if I win I get a bobble head if brand wins He gets a hat we are doing the bobble hat for NFL this week for that kind of format a head-to-head I think the naji harris like you said is a really Really close to a lock my number one above naji is dalvin cook I think this game environment is underrated given that the total just came down to 47 and a half I think it should go over pretty pretty interesting in the fact that it went down, but dalvin last year Average 30 Adjusted opportunities per game again. That's karius plus 2x targets 30 is a really big number. That was his average He had 137 aggregate yards per game between Rushing and receiving that's 13.7 points before you account for catches before you account for touchdowns. That's awesome He's facing the Bengals I would project them to rank 20 second against the rush this year based on my numbers which are driven by number fire stuff but Tailored throughout the offseason to an account for player movement. So Not expecting this rush to events be that great christian deris I'll practice this week I don't think he'll play just because he was so much time But like, you know, I still think that offensive line will be good enough for cook to be solid I just think that's a good game stack. So dalvin won naji 2 number three is directly a pivot off james robinson and I think that james robinson is A solid play this week. He's someone I will use because I do expect passing game work I do expect the jaguar score points. I don't expect that game to be super competitive and high scoring Which is why I think that chase edmunds is a pretty good tournament pivot in the preseason kyler Murray played nine snaps And chase edmunds played seven of those nine snaps with kyler according to adam levitan have established the run We know edmunds will get passing game work and it seems like he will get early down work too So we know he's not going to get the goal on work I can almost guarantee you that will go to a combination of kyler and james connor But the yardage will be good and that matters a lot of $5,900 and like There's always a chance he has that austin echlerall where he's in there at like the seven yard line You can score from there. So I think that edmunds although he is flawed. I think he's still A worthwhile tournament target for this week and a game that I adore brand. I do want to ask you Will use chase edmunds or am I on an island with this one? I think The odds he completely erupts it are low enough Where i'm going to take a little bit of a wait and see approach that could come back to haunt me But I don't know what the goal on work is going to be and that's Something that I don't have to worry about for some other guys Where are you at in james robert's and the guy I'm using as a pivot off of or using edmunds as a pivot off of um, I like him More Just because I would assume that well more than edmunds. I think it's fair like most people will that's kind of a Point, but yeah. Yeah. Well, what do you ask me? No, i'm asking you like general thoughts on him independent of edmunds um I think he's You could probably consider him as a A close close to a lock. Um His role was amazing when he was uh, you know last year tied for six and adjusted opportunities per game I played about 70 of the snaps I think that I would probably not play him in a single entry due to expected popularity, but also, um, just Not loving that game so much even though more that's that's what I was going to say I think that if I have a single lineup, I'm okay glossing over him I think that he'll be a pretty quick Pretty quick click for a lot of people. Yeah fun to say Uh, and I'm okay I think that like I would rather like for single entry I would gloss over him and go with Edmunds and harris Uh ceh and harris something like that still getting the value options taking advantage of that But using other guys in better game environments Uh, but cash games different than single entry. Would you play robinson? Probably? Yeah. Yeah, I think so too Okay, let's move to wide receiver. Who do you have there? um I have I lost my street. Uh, calvin ridley. Um, there are I count the top eight receivers this week are I couldn't really decide so I just went with calvin ridley for the for the fact that um, I haven't projected for the uh, the most targets this week and also the The most air yards for the week and air yards are a huge part of the standard standard deviations I run that they kind of find upside. So, um Really easy to justify calvin ridley for me, uh, 10.3 targets per game without julio or in games where julio was very limited um, just 0.3 touchdowns per game, which was the the real reason that his Fantasy points per game in that split looked worse um, you know matt ryan typically struggles a lot without julio, but um full offseason here adding kyle pits um, a little bit more Optimistic than I than I was initially once they lost julio Um, it's an amazing workload for ridley last year without julio. My second love is tyler locket in a game We didn't really talk about. Um, I would consider julio here, especially if aji browns out But locket along with dk metcalfe. We know Um, just combined for 47 of seattle's targets last season Locket himself fell off really hard. Um, had a sort of strong a dot about about receiver average But ran 95 of routes Above average in yards per outrun And pro football focus ranks him with one of the best composite cornerback matchups, uh for the opener So, um, I think he could go a little bit under the radar and we do know that locket has you know Slate changing upside. My third love is going to be marquez calloway a little bit more of a cash game kind of Assumption here at 5200. I think that's too low for A receiver who like i'm trying to limit my exposure to receiver threes. Um, he's basically just a receiver one at a wide receiver three salary Packers do have a good secondary But you know overall even if we're a little bit bearish on the the game itself Still a high total still a tight ish spread And james winston targeted calloway five times in the pre season and they connected for 102 yards and two touchdowns. So One of the one of the few receivers i feel good about with saving salary. Yep I think the calloway is solid and it'll be very popular, but like that's justified I wouldn't be shocked if I wind up underweight Um, just like that's not because I actively want to be underweight just because like, you know In general Popular wide receivers are more likely to bust. So i'm gonna have definitely be there, but i'm okay being a bit underweight You mentioned tyler locket My first love is dk meccaf because we had not talked about that game But it fits the process it checks the boxes three points spread 50 point total that total is increased recently So that's uh, that's a good thing as well the seahawks Are expected to play faster this year, which is a good thing in general and they want the ball out faster. So I think that there is potential for that to be a negative for meccaf It lowers his ability to get downfield targets, but like He's so good. He could score anyway. So for right now. I'm okay Keeping things pretty good with him. I do love locket too. I think locket's a really solid play I think the one downside of locket meccaf is there's not a super logical bringback option Like you could go jonathan taylor you could go with like a pitman. He started around the Colts market shares yet Yeah You could go with michael pitman um And I will have some michael pitman just because there's no ty hilton which does boost his projected target share But like It's not the easiest game to stack. That's the one downside with those guys I also love justin jefferson did not mention him in the other sections, but like he's a freak Really excited to use him in that game. My second love is odell beckham He is by far my favorite bringback piece for cheese stacks, which I will have plenty of for this week and Apparently odell's looked pretty good in camp. That's uh, it's not like uh, oh, I'm going to use it because of that But it doesn't hurt coming off an acl The chief strength I wouldn't say is that corner on their defense Odell's 6500 the browns can sometimes be a bit more run heavy than you like It's not as bad as perception. I don't think But in a game where they're now five and a half point dogs, I'd expect them to throw plenty So odell my favorite bring back there another game. I want to stack is bangles viking So my number three love is t higgins. I like this game a lot and yeah, they did add jamar chase, which you alluded to but Maybe the drops issues buy higgins some more time early Maybe we see chase split a couple snaps a lot in tate that could help them the vikings have tried to add a corner Still out of strength like they've got I'm not worried about patrick peterson against t higgins in the year of our lord 2021 still okay with that. So I think that higgins $6,000 uh, good option. I will say that some lower salary guys who were at least in consideration for me Corrie davis elisha moore If I decide to go at that game Devontae smith nicole hardman mostly for game stacks marquez calloway mentioned marquez now the scantling is actually Semi viable I would say and finally terrace marshal that secondary for the jets is going to be hideous It's oh my gosh bad So I could see myself going to terrace marshal to say some salary there are guys I like down there and out of the positions Far and away the position i'll differentiate at most this week is wide receiver because I am Firm committed to quarterback firm committed to a couple of running backs wide receiver. I'm okay Differentiating a bit more same for you. Yeah, I mean we know that there's a wide range of outcomes at receiver Um, it's a little bit more predictable at quarterback and running back. What's not quite so predictable is also tight ends Yeah, so let's go to tight ends feel great about everything here. What are you seeing? We're not going to talk travis kelsie in this but obviously I think it's just assumed that we love him if we can build around him, but I'm probably not going to get there as much But with my home stacks, obviously i'm going to be there plenty, but I like kyle pits He's my number one here for for this section six thousand We will learn right away how involved he is rookie tight ends historically get off to slow starts, but he's basically a receiver just listed as a tight end Philadelphia's 24th against tight ends last year and adjusted fantasy points per target pits played Two snaps in the preseason That I found one of which was a 27 yard designed reception Uh got out in space looked really good after the catch There's just a chance that we won't see him at 6 000 again this year. Hope he could just are you grinding film? Well, are you just abusing this next gen stats access? So I was I was looking at uh what he did. I like almost showed to my coffee What it's it's it's pretty phenomenal. I'll have to show you some stuff that I found but Oh, you showed me i'm gonna use it. I just didn't didn't expect to hear that as I was taking my coffee Well, I wanted to double check because yeah, uh That he had only two snaps because yeah, I'm not On grinder. Well, believe it or not. I'm says you want to check um And I you know, I just saw that the They got him the ball in space and he just kind of ran down the field and looked really good So I like that so i'm gonna play him All right, the six thousand especially because I like that game uh a good bit my second love I think things get wary below that the top three this week. Uh, so pits kittle and kelsey So we're taking some stabs here, but johnny smith 4900 Was brought into the patriots before hunter henry. I think henry actually has a higher salary this week He's like 5400 or something. I could be wrong in that but it's kind of strange Um, he played 20 preseason snaps according to pro football focus ran 11 routes, which is pretty solid But he lined up in the slot or out wide on seven of those 20 snaps. Uh, despite seeing just two overall targets Uh, his loan catch did lead to some run after the catch as well And mac jones looked good in the preseason, which is obviously why he's starting but if you look at who Who he actually threw to it wasn't really any of the first string So I think that johnny this is kind of lining up Well for johnny smith if they're gonna play him out Why a good bit and the salaries here are based on cam starting you expect a run heavy approach for new england This might not be as much of that So johnny works just lower on the game environment and also they're not going to win that game go dolphins, baby My first love is george kittle. Uh, he's seven thousand dollars and that's a lot But like also I like george kittle a lot but this this game Obviously doesn't fit the Stack high scoring games I will say though that mostly because of the 49ers this game Does create out kind of wealth like an overall aggregate offensive efficiency perspective The 49ers are actually my top projected offense from an efficiency perspective for this week in large part because The the lions, uh, but but kittle I feel like the matchup with these lions linebackers. That could be a nightmare for them seven thousand dollars I'm not going to use iuk or sannual. I will use kittle. I think that he is kind of the one guy here outside of maybe tray sermon I'm not totally convinced I'll use sermon yet, but I'm gonna use kittle I think that he is the best access best route for access this game potentially the only route for getting there My second love is tyler conklin because he weirdly had a good role down the stretch last year He had a 15 target share in four games of the car Rudolph down the stretch and Those were without or with irv smith in the lineup now There's no irv smith the second guy is chris herden who just joined the team and he's also chris herndon conklin 40 400 dollars in a great game the targets he got last year were not like high leverage But he's a good athlete and I think that that means he could get high leverage targets So 40 400 dollars in a game. I like I think that's pretty enticing. We also have dan arnold at 45 hundred dollars I'm gonna have some arnold for sure as well So again, I'm more willing to use lesser game environments at tight end than at other spots So kittle and conklin, I mean, I mean kittle and arnold fit that conklin's just a good game that I do want to stack Defense what you got there? I'm a good denver 4100 they have the 10th ranked defensive line top secondary according to pro football focus Giants were not healthy all preseason. As you mentioned, kenny golladay doesn't even expect them to start off pretty well There's not a whole lot of reps there and daniel jones had a 9.1 percent sack rate last year a top five rate at the position Danny dimes dany sacks. Maybe that's a more appropriate nickname. It's kind of a weird nickname sacky dimes Sack like a sack of the I don't know like a I'm gonna abandon ship on this. Um, I think the Broncos are the top defense too. 4100 dollars against a What seems to be a potentially dysfunctional offense The Giants offense just it's not healthy. I think that's a big part of it I'm not a big Daniel Jones guy If you're looking for some options that are a bit lower salary than 4100 dollars I think the falcons work there facing the eagles again I think it's not gonna be the best game in terms of defense because The eagles are probably gonna run quite a bit, which I'd rather have a lot more pass attempts So the falcons are fine, but they're favored. They're at home defense. I think is underrated a bit And they also have dean peas now as a defense coordinator. He does some exotic stuff Um, so that could be fun. I like the Giants in the same game. Teddy doesn't make a lot of mistakes But like it's just a good defense. They are at home Um, I think that That could be fine. They're not like the highest upside option, but I don't mind them I like the bills facing the Steelers the Steelers at least historically been a team that passes a lot I don't expect that to be as true this year and Ben also does get the ball out pretty fast But it's still a bad offensive line. The bills have some playmakers in their secondary. That's a good thing And finally chiefs. I love Baker huge Baker guy, but We're probably gonna see some uh some desperation Baker and desperation Baker is not thriving Baker So I think the chiefs are in play at least as a lower salary option, but I think the Broncos are number one Um other options right by the Broncos What uh while you're looking um, if anyone's curious why we would target defenses in games with high totals About 60 of Fando points come from sacks and interceptions sacks obviously come from throwing the ball and Having high volume. So you don't want to just look at like points allowed and yeah defenses like that You want to maximize? Drop backs Which is why I said I was lower on the Falcons. I still will use them But like you want to maximize drop backs because it's very hard to score points in rush attempts Sacks interceptions those things come from drop backs. So That's why I would skew that way and you're correct in pointing that out because it is a new year That is all that we have here for week number one on this preview podcast Once again, we'll be back with you on monday 9 a.m. Eastern to wrap things up Give you our thoughts give you the big winners and losers revamped Preview or recap podcast this year to give you the top on takeaways right away and let you know what we saw In thursdays and sunday's action make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast and while you're there leave us a rating your view the recap podcast Will also be live on youtube at 9 a.m. On monday We're gonna have a preview of the bucks and cowboys today 4 p.m. On the fatal youtube twitch facebook and twitter pages I'll be there 4 to 4 30 to talk single game dfs talks and props talk about why i'm banging my head against the wall With cowboys plus 8 and a half what could go wrong there? um That'll be 4 to 4 30 and then tomorrow we have our snake draft snake draft season is back with myself Brandon and jay jzak reason doing a live snake draft on air and then taking some of your questions brandon Before we close up here for today any final final thoughts any final words of encouragement people listening out there before they Head off to fill out week one lineups Uh encouragement good luck. Uh, you can do this um final thoughts we covered a lot a lot of strategy based stuff I know it can be a lot to take in but um, you know I would say honestly if you're the type of person who wants to play even like let's say 20 lineups Just try not to get sprinkles of everyone I think you want to kind of start paring down your your player pool even starting a week one That's what i was going to say is don't let fomo don't let fear drive your Decisions you're going to miss out on guys. It's going to happen. That's fine. I know it's going to happen this week I know it's going to be guys that said don't use this week Who we're going to who we're going to blow up and i'm going to tweets for it. That's fine It's also going to be the it's also going to be the guys you were like I want to play this guy, but I need to cut him out and he hits and it's like it's going to happen It's high variance. There's a lot of guys to consider But when you know you just need to maximize that if that's how you want to play correct and Your process can differ from ours. That's totally okay. This is what we do This is our process and we're trying to pass it on to you as well Brandon if people have questions for you on twitter your favorite, where can they find you there? I'm at goodwill 13 gd ula 13 and i am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s Also, make sure you follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. We made it to week one Games are coming hot and fast go win yourself some cash We'll talk to you once again on monday to wrap it all up. This has been heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire