 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network as of today We are officially just two weeks away from the start of the 2024 MLB season I was looking at the calendar for the show and realized if we're gonna talk MLB futures There aren't a lot of other slots available because we got March Madness coming up We have got NFL for agency coming up next week. It's a pretty loaded sports schedule So didn't leave a lot of slots to talk MLB futures So that's what we do today is break down some futures I like over at Fandall sportsbook talking a couple of divisional bets and a win total and then I'll break down formula one in Saudi Arabia Discuss where my model show value for this week. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research here to dig into the 2024 MLB future to market and outline where I see value for this year at Fandall sports Putting a course in formula one as well We'll dig into all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast a lot of the good stuff Coming up the rest of this week got a big UFC event coming up this weekend We have some EPL NASCAR is going to be out in Phoenix So all that coming up here later this week on the show and next week a lot of college basketball Dr. Ed Feng is back with us We're gonna talk NFL free agency and get more college basketball conference tournament thoughts in out there for you as well So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating as well Don't forget the show also posted on the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus Get buckets with your first bet on Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bets That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your bet wins bet on all your favorite players and teams with quick bets live Same game parlays exclusive props and more just visit the Fandall app and shoot your shot Fandall official sports Book partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required Bonus issued as non-controllable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook dot Fandall calm Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem call 100 gambler or visit fandall calm slash RG Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee Virginia and Vermont call 100 next step or text next step to 5334 to in Arizona 188-789-7777 Or is the ccpg dot org a slash chat in Connecticut 1809 with it in Indiana 1805 to to 1700 or visit KS gambling help by common Kansas 1877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 100 gambler net in West Virginia 105 to to 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline MA org or call a hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 24 seven supporter, Massachusetts or call 1877 70 open Y or text open Y in New York Let's dig in now at the 2024 MLB season for the first time and outlines the spots where I see value across Fandall sportsbook for this year We'll begin things off with a couple of divisional winners. I like let's talk about the AL East It's a very tough division. Obviously the Yankees added one Soto the Orioles Surprise team last year. They've been made some additions the court burns have some more money potentially to spend under the new ownership The Jays a very competitive team, too That's accounted for in the odds how tough this division is The rays are plus 650 that is 13 percent implied odds and you got a fan graphs right now the rays are 24 percent to win this division according to their numbers and You know, you'll see discrepancies like that It may be not accounting for potential signings for the Orioles and things like that But I understand why the data is high on the rays entering this year obviously the rays did struggle quite a bit in the second half last year and That matters because we want to take into account the full season But that also is important when I take into account the full season not just the second half Their current active roster had a 119 at WRC plus overall last year according to fan graphs And that ranks third in baseball currently behind just the Braves and the Dodgers No other AL East team is higher than one of seven again the the rays are at 119 Pitching this year could struggle with no shame at Clanahan That's definitely a downgrade for them But we get a full year of Taj Bradley He had you know some struggles last year for sure But they're at least building blocks for a superstar potential there and the role players on this team stepped up as well Got really good depth in the bullpen. So yeah, the rays did fade down the stretch last year But the hot start they had that also does matter and when you look at their seasons a whole last year It's a pretty good indicator. This team is not an afterthought even in a very tough division So I think that leads to considering the rays here plus 650 to win the AL East again The implied odds there are just 13 percent That's writing them off and I'm not quite there yet. So to me I think the rays deserve some consideration Despite the fact this division is tough because I would expect that offense to thrive once again throughout this year So the rays plus 650 first place I am turning The second division that I think is intriguing is one where there's really no runaway favorite at least by my mind That's the nl central where the cardinals are the favorites of plus 155 Cubs are two to one reds four to one if brewers are six to one I think the cardinals specifically are very vulnerable in this division They did make some moves at the start of the offseason to address pitching but They were not the most exciting moves by any means and it's an underwhelming group and it's an old group So I think that gives them volatility and in this sense, it's not in the positive way The offense to the cardinals is fine. It's okay. Uh, not a standout So I broadly think there's no one runaway team In this division and as a result of that, I think there could be some some value elsewhere here Don't hate the cubs don't hate the reds, but the brewers are underrated likely due to how bad Their offense is and the offense being bad is legitimate. Uh, they had a 92 w r c plus on their active roster Last year which ranks 26 in the league, but those numbers don't include Reese Hoskins who Missed the entirety of last year now signed with the brewers He's not a perfect hitter But he's definitely someone who will help and you look at this offense now It's still gonna be underwhelming and I think it'll be below average But I don't think it'll be as bad as what the current numbers say The brewers were last year the defense is very good bullpen is still what it was Obviously the big question beyond the the offense is starting pitching. Uh, no Brandon Woodruff this year Corbyn Burns is now gone That's a concern and It's not a lock. They get decent pitching to overcome the woes. They have offensively I think freddy peralta is an ace though other guys Just trying to bridge the gap to the bullpen So I think they're an okay team again. I don't love their offense. I think that is legitimate that they are potentially gonna struggle a lot there But it's better than it was six to one to win That's 14.3 applied odds and you put that in a division that doesn't really have a clear cut runaway option I think that's too long So the brewers to me six to one the best bet in the nl central and a team I'm willing to buy into despite the fact. I know their offense is not going to be very good Offense is not everything it can lead to volatility being in lower scoring gains But in this sense volatility is a good thing. So I like the brewer six to one to win the nl central Final one. I want to highlight here as far as futures for this year Is around the los angeles dodgers now? We're not betting the dodgers to win The world series because the odds are very short not betting the win the nl west because the odds are Unfathomably high there their win total is 103 and a half and the under is minus 105 It does feel bad to do this because if I bet against the Dodgers from a futures perspective I have to really get shohai otani and mookie bets every single day And I really really don't want to do that because those are two of my favorite players in the entire league they're a very fun team and Given their roster, it's very possible the Dodgers could sleepwalk to this number But there are a couple of things that keep me away From the over here with the Dodgers and big one is they've got a lot of volatility in their pitching Again, I keep coming back to that word volatility But when expectations are so high Volatility is not your friend Yoshinobu Yamamoto should be really fun for this team But they also do use a different baseball in the nippon professional baseball league than the what they use here We were talking to the rob freeman pitching ninja about kote senga last year senga making the same transition and senga In april and and may walked a lot of guys really struggled to get his groove on But then he did get a handle on his breaking pitches and he really took off But there was a transition period and rob said that was because of the different size baseball And we could see Yamamoto go through a similar transition this year Got Tyler glass now james paxton not exactly the models of health typically walker buller coming off a very long absence no clayton kershaw for a while so We shouldn't be surprised if the pitching for the Dodgers is starting pitching specifically Could have some issues at some point They will score runs So we know that for sure and they're gonna be a fun team to watch but 103 and a half wins a lot that's but that's happened 42 times in the history major league baseball So Sure, the Dodgers should be the favorites. They're an awesome team who I love But we also think about this team philosophically What is their goal? Is their goal to win 104 win games this year during the regular season? Or is it to win a world series and will they take steps with their starting pitching to ensure Those guys are at their peak in october That's kind of where i'm thinking with this one as well. Their goal is to win the world series Their goal is not to win 104 games so It could make me look like a total donkey to bet against the Dodgers Given how fun that roster is and how legitimately good they are But under 103 and a half minus 105. I think is the proper way to view This team right now given The question marks around the pitching with their health Given the fact that their goal is to win the world series and not win games during the regular season I think that's enough to justify taking it under 103 and a half and minus 105 on the Dodgers So my three favorite MLB futures this year Dodgers under one or three and a half wins minus 105 I like the Brewers to win the Anno Central at six to one and I like the raised win the ALES at plus 650 All available right now at Fandals sportsbook. I did look through Uh, some player level markets. I didn't see anything that I really liked honestly So wound up sitting it out sticking with just the team wide markets You can maybe find some fun long shots for the awards market But personally given all the dynamics there. I'm okay sitting those markets out So just the team level futures for me We're gonna Tom Vecchio talk some more MLB futures the week of opening day He'll also be taking you through opening day because I'll be out that week out in Scotland so Was more MLB futures talking me up later on the show, but we'll let things stand there for right now Let's talk about some formula one out in Saudi Arabia for this week second race of the season for formula one They are in Jeddah Max are stepping after his dominant win in Bahrain is minus 490 to win this race and That could be boring potentially. I get it for sure But from a betting perspective, we don't have to bet outrides And in fact when I look at Fandals sportsbooks odds to win the race I show value on literally zero drivers including their step into win So I can just set it out and look elsewhere I think the value lies in the lower tier markets And it's on two guys who really impressed me in the opening race of the year Those two guys are Lance stroll and Joe Guan Yu and I think that we can buy into both those guys In a couple of different markets. Let's begin things off with stroll plus 750 to finish inside the top six for this week And stroll last week Underwhelming qualifying didn't make it into q3 and started the race in the mid-pack and because he was starting mid-pack He was involved in a a pile up or a Tussle on the first lap of the race got spun in that first corner So stroll went from starting in already in a bad position to running 19th on the first lab But they used a different strategy as a result that race they got on the hard tires really quickly and those hard tires worked really well and We saw stroll have really good pace during the race He rallied to finish 10th in that one It didn't get a lot of buzz because stroll did finish last among the big five teams But but I think it was impressive when you consider the context of this guy was spun backwards and running 19th On the first lap of the race and did get back up into the top 10 Now the counterpoint would be that his teammate Fernando Alonso did not have a good race in that one He finished 9th couldn't only keep up with the mclarenz and Mercedes and teams like that That means that asin martin is not thriving right now But I do think there is pace in that car and that's why I like stroll to finish inside the top six That's plus 750 a fan dual sportsbook. That is 11.8 percent implied odds I had stroll at 19.6 percent, which means I'm a good amount above market here on stroll to finish inside the top six Usually when you're pretty far off market as we discussed You tend to be the one who is wrong. So there's always that risk here with stroll But I also understand why my model is on stroll right now We look back at last year. Obviously asin martin had a very good start to the year They finished top six or strolled it in uh, 23 of all races I'm not expecting that level once again given that asin martin doesn't seem quite as quick as they were to open last year but I'm also not there. You know, I'm at 19.6 percent. The market is a half of what he did last year I think generally the market tends to underestimate stroll given that kind of a nepo baby And people don't tend to view him or rate him very highly as a driver But he's fine. He's not a bad driver. You're good marks in the lower series. It is a pretty good car So I think that stroll plus 750 for a top six is a good option For this week taking advantage of the fact that he did rally and race pretty well In last week's event as mentioned the second guy I'm on for this week is joe guanyu We're not doing t6 for joe guanyu because it'd be tough to ask a team back here to overcome the big five teams at the front of the pack, but joe Is a guy didn't really have high expectations for this year Because he didn't have high expectations for his team and kick sour They really struggled last year especially towards the back half of the season a lot of retirements not a lot of pace So I went in with a pretty low prior on them And I still don't have a super high opinion of this team But I think the bigger thing is that a lot of their biggest competition underwhelmed in the opening race I thought by daniel rickardo and yuki yuki senota were just fine and then opener whereas I had higher expectations for them Senota was decent rickardo just okay I thought in that race alpine was hideous and we can now view them as being a Back-of-the-pack type team and williams hard to get a good read on them Because alexander albon had some engine issues So not really sure what their true pace was for that race But joe guanyu Used the same strategy as stroll where he got on the hard tires early and it paid off for him He held this ground after he got track position and I thought really impressed in that race Guanyu or joe finished 11th in that one He's now plus 410 to finish inside the top 10 in saudi arabia. That is 19.6 percent implied odds I have joe at 24.3 percent to finish top 10 Now sauber was not in the points a lot last year. So Just three total times where joe was inside the points So this is a pretty big bump but he had good pace in the race on on saturday and His biggest competitors for a top 10 also struggled We could see some more attrition in the top 10 that we saw last week where there were no retirements at all for the entire race So I think that's enough to make Joe very interesting here at plus 410. So two f1 bets. I like for this weekend I like land stroll top 6 at plus 750 and joe guanyu top 10 at plus 410 If you want the full simulations of this race check out vandal.com slash research go to the f1 tab You can find my full model simulations prior to practicing qualifying for this weekend's race with fp1 occurring on thursday That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread. We are back with you once again tomorrow People are racing talking the show again. So we'll be talking uh, nascar out in phoenix We'll also have austin cast on to talk about epl match week 28 with a full slate there as well To get that as it is posted make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast search For covering the spread hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on apple podcast or spotify If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at jim saunas You can find me on threads at jim dot saunas and check out fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your bets across wednesday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for some soccer and nascar This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network