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Dowell Myers - Immigration and the Housing Market, 1980-2020

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Published on Dec 10, 2013

Lecture and discussion, November 1, 2013.
For complete time index, click on "Show More" below.

00:00:00 Thomas Sugrue: Introduction of Dowell Myers

Talk

00:01:15 Overview

LONG TERM TRENDS IN IMMIGRATION
00:03:33 Changing Outlook on Immigration
00:05:55 Annual Immigrant Arrivals Since 1970
00:06:45 Cumulative Foreign-Born Share of U.S.
00:07:41 Immigrant Share of Housing Growth -- Renters and Owners

IMPACT OF POPULATION AGE WAVES
00:09:19 Principles of Housing Demography
00:13:21 Household Formation in Longer View
00:15:18 Homeownership in Longer View
00:18:15 Shiller's 120 Year View of House Prices: Population as a "flat pink line"
00:20:13 U.S. Population and Population Growth Each Decade -- by Age Group
00:23:57 Population Growth by Age Group -- Last 20 Years and Next 20 Years
00:25:15 Minority Dictatorship of New Construction: 1% dictates type of new construction
00:26:30 Native-Born Turning Age 25, Plus Immigrant Arrivals

MULTIFAMILY DOWNTURN AND REVIVAL 00:28:48 Age Profile of Tenants in Recently Built Apartments
00:30:56 Percent of Construction in 5+ Unit Structures

THE BABY BOOMER SELL-OFF
00:32:00 Number of U.S. Homeowners by Age Cohort
00:33:42 Soaring Ratio of Seniors to Working Age

IMMIGRANT CONTRIBUTIONS
00:35:48 Growth of Immigrant Renters and Owners
00:37:34 Immigrant Trajectory from Renting to Owning
00:38:14 Transition into Homeownership for Successive Waves of Immigrants (U.S.)
00:40:56 Transition into Homeownership for Successive Waves of Immigrants (major states)
00:43:28 Growth in Number of Renters (Immigrant and Native-Born)
00:44:30 Growth in Number of Owners (Immigrant and Native-Born)

ALL ACROSS AMERICA
00:45:33 Immigrant Share of Growth in RENTERS 2010-2020
00:46:30 Immigrant Share of Growth in OWNERS 2010-2020

WHAT IS THE NEW NORMAL?
00:47:20 No Clue from This Short Span (1995-2013)
00:48:28 A Century of U.S. Homeownership Rates
00:49:44 5-Year Cohort Progress into Homeownership
00:52:16 Comparison of Progress into Homeownership

00:53:22 Takeaways and Conclusions

Comments/Questions

00:55:00 #1: What is the effect of the changing compositions of households -- that is, the number of people in each household, which is said to be shrinking?
00:55:33 Response.

00:57:15 #2: A recollection of personal experience as an immigrant buying housing in Philadelphia -- not realizing at the time what an enormous investment in upkeep it would be, which counted against the "profit" when she sold it years later.
00:58:56: Response.

00:59:51 #3: What are the factors that attract immigrant groups to buy housing that other groups are vacating?
01:00:57: Response

01:05:55 #4: Others argue that the U.S. should encourage the immigration of more high-skilled, high-paid immigrants. How does the impact on housing factor into that policy argument?
01:06:28: Response.

01:10:49 #5: How do you disentangle growth in immigrant ownership from the growth of so-called global cities, where foreign investors own much of the real estate?
01:11:17: Response.

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