 everyone. It is August 22nd. The close of the commodities market and we're about an hour away from the close of the equities market. This is Michelle Schneider-Misch, chief strategist of MarketGauge.com. We're going to talk a little bit about gold. And I want to mention silver, also natural gas, oil, and video earnings, and of course the upcoming Jackson Hole. But I think before we start that the most important relationship that we're looking at right now is the relationship between the bonds and the dollar. We have bricks going on and of course we know that there is a movement towards trying to bring the dollar down as the world's reserve currency, but clearly you're not seeing that in the charts. But that's not even what matters. What matters to me right now is that what we have here is the TLT, which may have a reversal. We've had several of them that haven't really gone very far. And ahead of Jackson Hole that's interesting because people might be feeling that whatever Powell says, maybe skewed more on the Dover side. We'll see about that. But nonetheless I think what's interesting about this chart is not only as it's very far down from the six month calendar range low, and that would be the red horizontal line, the green being the six month calendar range high. But on our real motion indicator here, you can see that this is the first momentum to a mean reversion buy side that we've had since the one we had here, which happened to correspond with this high right here. But of course the next day, we gapped it back down below and that was the end of that. So that's why I'm saying be cautious, but nonetheless, we have a couple of things going on besides the new low and the reversal kind of met on the volume, but good follow through to the upside, lots and lots of people trying to bank on the bottom of the TLT's and a mean reversion. So if this continues to go up, and as far as I'm concerned really, it would have to get back up over 9370 for in order to start to look particularly interesting and then it has hurdles along the way. We also have to be watching what happens to the dollar because you can see as this has been going down, this went up and now has been sideways. Here's your six month calendar range high and we're sitting right there. When this happened with the Nasdaq and the spies and IWM went through it briefly, but never really clear that July six month calendar range high. And as a result that turned out to be the top, which of course we still see is in place. However, it is above the 200 day moving average. And so we're in an accumulation phase in the dollar that may or may not be so meaningful. And we already have a mean reversion trade and we have not quite gotten through that momentum. So I would say not only look for the potential of a rally in bonds, but also a potential for a sell off in the dollar. And of course, I say that as a backdrop because that would not necessarily be good for equities because it would mean that the market is starting to think more recessionary, especially the TLT's start doing better against the spy and B it could be very good for commodities, particularly precious metals and the energy market, which we're about to talk about. As you know by now, I like to keep my charts simple, which is why all you're seeing today on this particular chart of gold, which is the spot gold, by the way, the December contract is probably the most highly speculated right now, but we're going to start with spot and then I'll show you the December gold. What I like about this chart is that even though we've had all of this big sell off and we broke down under the 200 day moving average, which is that thicker line. We're not that far from possibly taking it back. And also if we just go back to like around this level right here at 1886 ish 1885 1886, that gives us a really good risk point from the cash standpoint of what we want to see hold up. And so if it does hold up above that 1886, obviously on a closing basis, we did not get over 1900. But if we do open up back over 1900 1901, then I see no reason why we can't get up to 1910. And then of course above that possibly a much bigger rally in store. If we drew a trendline from the very high here using these two highs right here, we would see that this would also come in just about where the 50 day moving averages at 1933. So let's keep those numbers in mind 1895. That's your max risk 19 to 1901 probably more of a bullish scenario over 1910 clearly gets back into a phase change. And of course over 1933, I would say relatively bullish. Let's take a look at December gold. So the December gold is trading at around 1925. So you could see that the actual gold prices are in contango, which means as the futures go out, the prices get higher and higher. Generally, that's bullish, but it hasn't really worked out at that point here in gold yet. Now again, in this case, we are actually below both the moving averages in much further away than what we saw in spot, which is why spot will be very key here. But I do again like the idea that we have this trendline coming down along with the 50 day moving average somewhat around the same levels. Let's call it 1975 to 1980. And we know that's been highly pivotal. But here we are down here. First case, we have to look at these lows that we've had in February. I don't love the fact that we're awfully close to them. But if they hold from here, I would think that's a good sign. So here is your 1885 in December, which we just saw in spot as the big key. Now on the bottom trendline, we're connecting those lows from back here with the lows that we're seeing over the last few days. So that gives you also a great risk point. This really needs to hold above 1913 in the discolored. I would imagine if it breaks, we're also going to be seeing spot below 1885. So keep that number in mind. If we hold this 1913 level right now, if we just look at recent activity here, I like the fact that we close right at this high here before we saw that one last step and then rally. So that's why this 1925 will be our first pivotal area if it opens up around unchanged above 1925, more bullish below a little bit more negative. And if we get through 1925, then of course our next spot is going to be 1940, which probably corresponds more with the 1908, 1910 that we saw in spot. And then of course beyond that, we're looking at 1960 up to 1970 below that 1913 or that 1885 in spot. Of course we'll be looking down here at 1884 in these. Okay, let's move on because silver looks even more interesting to me right now than gold. So we can compare apples to apples. This is actually the December contract of silver. And what's interesting about it is that as we saw gold was still pretty far away from its two moving averages. This is getting closer. And I believe that we had talked about 2350 as a pivotal area. So if we take that 2350 right now, that would be your pivotal area and probably a good risk point give or take. However, what's even more interesting is that silver is now getting a little bit of follow through, but absolutely needs to get through these two moving averages right here to prove that it's got some muscle through 24 or 2404. Then I think that you would have to play it from a buy the dip bias right now. We're still buying the dip. However, as I mentioned that 2350 would turn us a little bit more negative or I should say cautious. And overall if we connect this low to this low right here, we can say that any move below 23 and 2250 would obviously not be very positive for silver. So just keep your mind on that. And also on the silver to gold ratio as we know that also is a good reflection and pardon me of whether or not we're in heading more towards inflation and not the kind that we're measuring by CPI and PPI, but the kind that would be measured by more unrest and more geopolitical unrest, social unrest and also more weather problems. Okay, looking at the October crude oil West Texas price here. We were looking at 80 as the area that we really wanted to see hold for a more bullish bias. And yet it's right below 80 here on the closing basis. So we're going to alter that back down more to 78 and that's really on the basis of more of these chart patterns right here. So I would still say 80 particularly over 80 30 is going to be a bullish bias above it. And if we stay below it, then of course we're going to be looking for that move to 78. And if it breaks down under there, then that would mean obviously we would take a trip closer to the moving averages at around 75 80 76. What's interesting about this is that with all of the issues with weather and supply, the fact that that has not been able to maintain a rally is something to be noteworthy of. So we have been in our oil position for quite some time here and we will possibly be looking to exit if it breaks down under that 78 and potentially add as I just mentioned if we can get back over that 80 35 or 80 40. Let's move on to natural gas. So this is the September. So basically it's cash and again very interesting in that it had this nice pop up to three. We talked about that happening but could not sustain the rally. But starting to look awfully cheap here at these current levels at around 250 particularly seasonally we should be able to start to pick up in the natural gas market. So right now I would say looking at current price action. Our ultimate support here is at $2 and 45 cents would really like to see it though hold over that 250 so far it has on this correction and of course on the flip side here's your 50 day moving average back over 265 then I think we could start to see more buying and I would start to actually look at this more as a bottoming formation and maybe even say higher lows which means over that 265 level we could get back up to 280. If we get back over three then we can say that this whole formation from March starts to look like a giant bottom in which case we could really see a bigger move coming as we go forward. So looking at the Nvidia chart here this is the daily chart. What you cannot see is the July calendar range high and this is wide here so it's showing the entire month of July and also August. But the high in July to set the calendar range was set on this day right here four eighty eight eighty eight and today's high was four eighty one eighty seven so it actually took out the high the all time high by a dollar change and then sold off so that is so interesting it also failed to clear the six month calendar range high which again as I mentioned now a couple of times couldn't mean significant resistance so as we're going to earning what we know about Nvidia is that everybody under the Sun now has actually made a very very bullish call I've seen upgrades to seven hundred eight hundred even nine hundred dollars a share but that doesn't matter what matters now is going to be what the chart looks like and after reports if you can get through four eighty I think then indeed we'll be looking for six to seven hundred dollars a share but if the analysts are wrong surprise surprise because they've been wrong so often in the last year and this breaks down let's say under first of all four fifty would be my first point and then even more so under four thirty six which is the fifty day moving average I would only say that could happen because of what I'm seeing here in momentum this momentum is below the fifty day moving average and even though the price is well above it this is what we call a bearish divergence so if the momentum is telling us anything it's telling us that right now today might have been the upside blip and we could have more downside and if we bring this closer together here so we can get some history what's really going to be super important is this gap low right here the gap that we made back on in May on May twenty fifth where the low was three sixty six we don't want to see this break down under four hundred but if it does we would be looking at around that three sixty six level and of course if that breaks we have a big room down to around three twenty now that would be disastrous and the one reason why I think that could happen but only be of China Taiwan situation starts to exacerbate a bit but for now let's say that that four forty five to four fifty level is pivotal for eighty is the breakout and under four thirty five get more cautious four hundred of course would be your next level support and then under that three sixty six and finally let's talk a little bit about the Jackson Hole situation we know that Powell is going to be talking there this week and people are anticipating all kinds of things I showed you the TLT chart I think that's really important to figure we know that the yields have gone up extremely high as high as four point three seven maybe even a bit higher than that over the last couple of days but what people are going to be listening for is something other than what he ordinarily says which is data dependent we know we have a strong labor market here in the US we know that inflation has been relatively persistent particularly in certain areas the energy prices that have gone up although we saw in the charts today they could actually reverse a little bit potentially or at least flip more into gas than oil and we also know that the dollar is going to be a factor as well for that and we also know that Paul Powell is going to be very keen on what happens not just with the labor market and all of the inflation numbers but he's also going to be watching very carefully what happens with these bank downgrades that we got today in the US and whether or not the Moody's and the Fitch downgrades that we've gotten in banks and in credit actually comes home to roost since we really don't know the full effect of this rapid rise in interest rates we do know that in 2019 as we got closer to 0% interest rates it took a couple of years to see the peak of inflation and if we use a two-year business cycle at 2022 when we started to actually raise the interest rates and that rapid rise that we've seen since then it may not be until 2024 that we really understand the implication of what the Fed has done anyway hope this helps you all have a great afternoon and thanks so much for watching and bye for now