 Welcome back folks. Dow. Dow industry is up 49, Nasdaq is up 59, S&Ps are up three and a half. Let's go over to our mem, Steve Rose, as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour. Steve, we have an outstanding show here, folks. Every trading day, one to two Eastern standard time. Also has a great newsletter, Mastering Probability. Steve is the 2018 market timer of the year, according to the time it's digest huge award, folks. Bottom line, you can check out Steve's newsletter right here right now. The way you do this, you come over to our website at TFNN. You're going to go right to Mastering Probability. You hit that subscribe button. You can get Steve's newsletter for one month for $149. You can get it for six months for $695, which is a savings of $199. You can get it for a year for $1195, which is a savings of $593. Now they all come with a 30-day money-back guarantee. So you have everything to gain, nothing to lose. Steve Rose, let's go. What on? Well, a great week of sports it was. Last time you and I were together, we were talking about game seven. Yeah. The NHL. My condolences to you and ruins fans out there. Yeah. Yeah, a good game, but was hoping for something a little bit better. Yeah, it was a choppy game, right? Yeah. Yeah, it was. But so we had that. First we've got, for those folks that are into soccer, the women's cup. Yes. The U.S. team, boy, they've just been, you know, they've really been on fire. So it'll be interesting to see how they continue to play. And then we had yesterday, you know, one of my favorite tournaments of the year, the PGA, the U.S. Open up there. Yes. And really a great tournament between two guys out there. Brooks Kepke, who has won the last two, you know, U.S. Open. That's pretty amazing what he did. I know. Oh, yeah, just, you know, just talk about a guy that was just focused in and really almost pulled it off. He lost to his good buddy, Gary Woodland. Gary is a neighbor of mine. He lives just two doors away from me. And so what a riot. So certainly pulling for him and his family, especially because so at the beginning of the PGA year, Tom, they have a tournament out at Capalua in Maui. And it's the it's there. It's the tournament of champion. So any anybody who wins a tournament along the way is invited to it. So it's a limited feel. Everybody is guaranteed a paycheck there. But in that, and he, Gary has been playing pretty well this year, but in that tournament, that opening tournament going into the last round, he had a five stroke lead and he lost that tournament by one stroke. But he lost it by a guy, Xander Shofle, who shot 11 under par. So Gary, he's ahead by five strokes. He shoots five under, which is really a very good score and still ends up losing. Wow. And so, you know, so the folks that were the commentators and so forth, take in a look at, hey, is he going to be able to hold on to this lead because he had he's had the 54 stroke lead previously. But you know, you can learn a lot from failure and you can learn a lot from an individual with, because it's not about, you know, like you played hockey, I played hockey. It's not about how you fall. It's how you get back up that counts. And that's the way that it works in trading and everything in life. So it was really fun to watch that tournament yesterday. Yeah. But you know, so I'm kind of bummed. There's not really much in the way of sports. It's all, you know, it's amazing. Then you get the raptors, right? You get, I mean, they look at the folks. I mean, it was June 15th, June 17th, but it is pretty amazing. He had hockey, finished up, baseball. I mean, baseball finished up. Yeah. And, you know, they had the U.S. open. I know, pretty well. Exactly. So, hey, last time in the time before we were taking a look at the seasonal cycle, just reminding folks that we're in this, we're in this unique period here where the, where the Dow itself typically tops out, initially tops out in the early May timeframe, makes a move lower. It's not unusual between now and July, the middle of July for price inside the Dow to make its way back up and retest, maybe even take out its prior highs out there. So I just want to set that as the, as the premise for taking a look at some of the charts that, that we are going to look at here. So I want to begin by taking a look at the Dow itself. And so if that seasonal cycle plays out, the high inside the Dow 26, 689, it would not be a surprise for the Dow to get back up there and retest that sometime between now and the middle towards the end of July. So if we investigate that potential further and take a look at where we're at right now, as far as June 17th, what I do is I turn to the Dow equity futures contract. Now, I know that you're going to be doing a webinar with Steve Dahl of TAS, Market Profiles, two days from now. Yes. These are really excellent and extraordinary tools. So I encourage everyone that's listening to sign up for that workshop out there. If we take a look at what the TAS Market Profiles are telling you and I about the Dow equity futures contract, they formed a new market profile. And folks, what that is, it provides each of us with new levels of support and resistance. Trading these markets is all about understanding support or resistances. Price pull back to support, hold it. Does it take out resistance and break out to want to move to further highs out here? And we take a look at the new profile that formed inside the YM, the Dow equity futures contract last week. Right now, price is trading above the top of that level. That's 26-121. The bottom or support would be 25-785. So for me to have a bearish outlook, I would need to see support broken right now for the Dow equity futures contract is 25-785. What we know is price has taken out resistance. Another source for you and I to take a look at for support and resistance are the horizontal trading ranges. And this chart really tells the picture of really the last five trading sessions where we've really been moving sideways a bit. And 26-191 is a key resistance level that if the Dow was able to move above, that would say, okay, I want to continue to move higher out there. Lastly, I like to look at this chart here. This is a weekly chart for the Dow equity futures contract. You'll see a green and red squiggly line on there. Tom, that's what I refer to as Stevie's red line. It's really the oscillator on change line. And it tells us a lot about an instrument. Here on the weekly base is when it's green and price is trading above that level. It tells me that on a weekly base we have a rising price oscillator above zero. That condition itself is bullish. So as long as price remains above that, it says that outcome of going back to those highs is still in play out here. And we had a close above that last week. We're trading above it today as we speak. So my conclusion is that at the YM, the Dow equity futures contract, close above 26-191, a move to the all-time high is likely based on that seasonal cycle. We can do the same thing for the S&P 500, which would then target the 29-54 level. So it would not be a surprise to me to see that move. But we have to do that same type of investigative work. Here's what we know right now. The ES mini, it formed a profile a couple weeks ago. Price is trading above the top of that level. That's 28-49. The conditions here are bullish. If we look at the horizontal trading ranges, just like we did inside the, oh, jeez, I grabbed the Dow. That's a bummer. It was supposed to be the ES mini. There also happened to be trading into resistance. I've got the wrong chart. The number to be watching, the number to be watching is 2906. They're really the same thing. So that's helpful for folks to watch 2906. Above that says that prices want to move to higher levels. When I look at the weekly chart and look for that oscillator on change line, price closed above it three weeks ago. We're still above that's 28-75. As long as price is above that, it says that the market can continue to move higher. So my conclusion is watch 2906 inside the ES mini out there. Lastly, if I take a look at the Russell 2000, it formed a Gartley buy pattern. What it wants to do, Tom, is to achieve outcome number two. Outcome number two is a move to 1558. That happens to be the .618 retracement of that entire move. So that's what I'm looking at. That's what I'm looking at for the seasonal cycle patterns inside the markets. And folks, the way you get Steve's newsletter and master in probability, come over to our website at TFNN. Going to featured content, you hit subscribe right there. Great newsletter. And of course you can listen to Steve every trading day one to two eastern stands at a time. Steve, you have a great one. Stay fighting. We look forward to the show tomorrow. Thanks, Tom. Thank you. Stay right there, folks. Come right back.