 Statistics and Excel, election poll statistics example. Got data? Let's get stuck into it with statistics and Excel. Well we'll be using OneNote here but we'll still be talking about Excel. You're not required to but if you have access to OneNote we're in the icon left hand side, OneNote presentation 1335 election poll statistics example tab. We're also uploading our transcripts so you can use the immersive reader tool changing the language if you so choose and being able to either read or listen to the transcript in multiple different languages using the time stamps to tie into the video presentations. OneNote desktop version here remembering the two primary categories of statistical problems one being where we know all the data of the population using statistical tools to organize that data in such a way that we can extract meaning from it. Number two being where we don't have all the data for the entire population but possibly are able to get a sample of the population applying similar statistical tools to the sample as we would for the entire population if we had all the data not because we're particularly interested in the sample but hoping that the information about the sample will be useful to tell us something about the entire population. Now it's useful oftentimes when we're practicing statistics to use a situation where we already know the information about the entire population so that when we can then take samples of it and test whether or not the samples actually do tell us something that we can infer to the entire population so that we can then apply those same statistical tools in cases where we don't know the entire population and we can then take the samples and we can come up with tools to see how confident we can be about those samples. So we're just kind of exploring those concepts at this time in prior presentations we did it with an entire population of heights taking a sample of the population of heights to see how close the sample relates to the results for the entire population of data and then we also did it in more theoretical areas when we're thinking about coin flips for example or we're thinking about drawing cards from a deck where the entire population you can think of as a theoretical concept as though we flip the coin an infinite amount of times as though we drew a card from a deck an infinite amount of times now in this case we're going to just we're just going to assume that there we know the answer of the entire population so that we can come up with our sample to see how close the sample is to the population so we're going to assume we have an election type of situation and we already know the results obviously again in real life we don't know the results that's why we take the sample but when we're doing our statistical testing and thinking about the tools we're using again it's useful for us to think about a situation where we're going to say I know the result for the entire population already and that's going to be 60 percent of the population is for candidate A and so now we're going to think about taking well how can we simulate a sample to see how close the sample would be to the actual result of the 60 percent we want to do this to think about our sampling method statistically as well as think about how we might structure a problem like this using our tools in excel so if we use our tools in excel we might say if we were to take a random sample because we're just saying it's 60 percent then we could structure our random function again so now we're using our random function again but now we're just we're going to say that it's random between one and 100 and so if we drew a random group of people and and they said they were for candidate A and we're assuming that the actual population would be 60 percent for candidate A and 40 percent non-candidate A right something other than candidate A then we can use this and say well if the result of our random draw between one and 100 comes between below 60 or below then that would be like similar to as though the candidate is for candidate A so I can basically make a random sample like this we can use our our generator tools and say I'm going to say this is a random draw between one and 100 any draw that happened that's between 60 or lower is equivalent to a vote for candidate A anything that's above 60 would be a non-candidate A vote a vote for somebody else and of course we can copy this down so now we've got our sample of this person is below 60 60 or below therefore vote for candidate A this one's above 60 therefore vote not for candidate A this one's below 60 therefore it's a vote for candidate A this one's above 60 C so we have our our random people that we can basically apply this to a yes or no kind of equivalence to candidate A so we can structure our tools in excel and we can copy this over because this is an easy formula to copy and we can run a test like this quite easily to try to get an understanding of what the results of this would be so now we've got