 Hello, my name's Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's Applied Demand Forex technical analysis If you are new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back, and I really do hope that you find my videos of some use every week Your feedback and comments are really appreciated and if you do have any questions, just leave them in the comment section box below and Or you can basically just email me at info at trading 180 comm also in the description box below is The pairs are timestamped so you can skip forward to your favorite pairs But what we're gonna do is start off as we do all every week on the fundamentals And a little bit of sentiment so the week ahead It's a website called trading economics great website Use it basically daily So in the week ahead we have important data includes us jobs report So non farm payrolls is in PMI's trade balance and factory orders So for the US we've got quite a lot of News coming out UK market PMI zero zone final first quarter GDP figures. That's going to be important as well Growth wise for Europe inflation Definitely important and retail sells Germany factory orders and trade balance Germany is the Europe's pretty much number one country powerhouse when it comes to driving the European economy as a whole so any slowdowns in in in You know German data Especially our trade balance is going to have an effect on the whole of Europe China Kaxin, I think it's how you pronounce it PMI's And Japan Nika PMI's And you have Australia's first quarter GDP growth It's gonna be also important anything to do with GDP is quite important and trade balance definitely ECB European Central Bank RBA Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India Will be deciding on monetary policy again very important because the central banks really are the The trying to balance Monetary policy because they are trying to balance in conjunction with the government I guess the economy as well and their policies affect a currency's Value and strength so Got a lot of things going on this week Also sentiment-wise if you're if you're not aware you should be especially if you're in Trading Forex, you know people say that fundamentals and you know I don't don't wish to fundamentals technicals are where it's at. I don't believe that for a minute But you should be aware that There is you know a bit of a trade war a bit of but there is a trade war going on and headlines from the Washington Post is Trump's stunning decision to escalate trade wars with China and the Mexico signals a turning point for US policy, so What's happening is basically Donald Trump is increasing tariffs trade tariffs on China and Mexico and basically financial investors are Uncertain as to how that's going to affect really Economies the US economy China's economy Mexico's economy and really the global economy. So there's a lot of fear around So what we call risk off we're in a risk-off environment And China targets FedEx's trade war escalates and this is from Forbes Again these I'll post these articles as well if you want to have a quick look in the description box below so Risk-off sentiment and there are certain Currencies that do well in a risk-off environment if you want to know You know a bit more about fundamentals and risk sentiment analysis have a free for its course Basically the beginnings and Basically I talk about risk on a risk-off sentiment how to apply it to the market and Pretty much try and keep you on the right side of the market. So Depending on the environment that we're in So, yeah, that's what we have that link is in the description box below totally free have a look and Tell me what you think also if you click on the Fundamental analysis spreadsheet takes you to here and this is when risk is on this So this is all when risk is on when risk is off the yen and the Swiss Frank will tend to strengthen Right, so usually and I'll show you that in the technicals as well this week so starting off on the dollar index in the technical analysis and We have From last week Had a bit of a sell-off and then we had Prices come up pretty much again into this supply zone before again selling off. I think Donald Trump's Surprise increase in From in Mexico tariffs and increasing them from 5% up to potentially 25% You know is having an effect on the US dollar And probably may do in the foreseeable future and into next week. So Risk off at the moment Let's look at the live chart So right now if you're looking to short the dollar what you wouldn't do is shorter the US dollar The Dow Jones dollar index per se you would be looking for short entries on the Dollar crosses and this we use the Dow Jones dollar index, which is a measure of dollar strength against the The yen the euro the pound and the Australian dollar and If you see Prices start to sell off here Overall, you know, you should see a sell-off on the other dollar crosses. So Right now we are up into an expensive area Right, we're up into basically some highs So we could see prices start to sell off So what you'd be looking for is short trades on the dollar yen dollar Swiss, etc. If you're looking for buy trades Then you'd be waiting for either demand zone here or for prices to start to look like they're turning up right and Look for that as confirmation on the Dow Jones dollar index I think there's gonna be a some some negative sentiment to be fair On the Dow Jones dollar index, but the Dow Jones What I say the US is still the best economy out of you know, the the eight Countries, so maybe you're just looking for maybe a bit of a pullback You might want to sit on your hands until maybe non-farms and then see what happens and then Readjust, but what's negative sentiment really does is just pulls prices to where we want to be buyers So I'm still long on the dollar, but This week I'm gonna be a bit more cautious on on some dollar trades, so Moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen Decent level to get long from last week, you know prices did start to turn up and then Donald Trump decided on Friday He wanted to raise surprise everybody with the Mexican tariffs, so Again risk off the Japanese yen does extremely well in a risk-off environment So you've seen this massive bearish candle overall in a risk-off environment anyway There's a lot of things going on from European Problems in Italy Brexit, you know in the UK. We haven't got you know prime minister at the moment I think she steps down this week And there's a leadership, you know contest You know with Brexit being uncertain no deal Brexit or WTO Brexit There's a lot of things going on China slow down So you're seeing overall the bigger picture, you know the risk off currency the Japanese yen You know really start to strengthen. So what does that mean? Let me go back to the charts What you're looking for now Delete these demand zones as there is no demand there proven demand If you're looking to be a buyer right now There would be anywhere around here you'd be looking for putting this one away round number Potentially looking for some sort of profit taking risk off can change if Donald Trump decides to then you know Surprise the market and say okay. Well, you know what? I do want to do a deal I want to back down etc. Then the US dollar will probably end up strengthening from a Short perspective and if you're continuing to trade potential risk off sentiment then You'll be looking for basically a pullback into this supply zone before looking to get Short and basically what you're doing is buying the Japanese yen over the US dollar So right now you've got an opportunity depending on What happens next week if you know Donald Trump continues with his rhetoric and stick to his guns Which I think you probably end up will doing then we could see you know Basically moves to the downside obviously there's gonna be pullbacks There's always pullbacks in a risk-off environment just like there are in a risk-on environment But if you are looking to buy then just maybe adjust your expectations as how as to how far prices may move to the upside Moving on to the dollar Swiss dollar Swiss is pretty much in the same boat as the As the yen Swiss Frank will benefit from a risk-off environment So this week we did have a bit of a turn up back up into this supply zone and again Short trades from here if you were trading risk off Right, so you've had nice trade trading some risk off sentiment We're now down into this demand zone We've got basically a cluster of demand all the way around here and what you want to do in situations like this is Look for supply and demand equations. So where is it most likely to be? You know more demand then supply so not only do we have value within this area? What we've got is a level of Support and resistance that's why and why support resistance, you know Why do we look at support resistance because other traders look at support and resistance? So we know that technical trade is going to be looking at this level as a level of resistance resistance resistance bit of support here Bit of support here and then we've got horizontal Support so they'll be hopefully somewhere some demand coming in here from a technical analysis perspective. We've also got diagonal support and resistance one two and Then we've got an area right here All right, so we've got trend line traders looking to get long potentially in this area as well Fundamentals and sentiment do outweigh technical analysis, but if you are looking to get long We've got a lot of confidence here If you are looking to get short, then you'd be really looking for this is created a new low so be looking for Prices to really kind of come back up into This area here before looking at you know some some short trades So if risk is off you're looking for pullbacks You could take advantage of some risk-on sentiment potentially or basically I would say even risk-on sentiment I'll probably more say profit-taking and also potentially traders looking to get long around here, but Swiss Frank at the moment is Looking strong from a sentiment perspective not necessarily fundamental. It's very weak fundamentally, but the market at the moment is risk of driven Moving on to the dollar CAD and the dollar CAD is literally being in bit of a range did have a bit of a breakout here But pin bar into this supply zone I was saying last week that remember just be careful if you are looking to get short the more times the level is touched the weaker it becomes And you see prices basically drift up into this area and kind of break above say break above but spike above spike above and At the moment we are within this supply zone out of the two I would say the daughter is is The stronger rather to and we probably tend to do better than the the CAD even in a risk-off environment so CAD If you are looking to potentially get short you'd be looking for Short trades now in today if you are looking to get long Then what I would suggest and what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna move this level of supply Slightly higher just so that we've got a bit of space To draw a bit of demand zones some demand zones here to demand and As you've made new highs What I'm gonna do is I'm gonna drag this as well to around Here clean this up a little bit and get rid of that so What you'd be looking for is Prices to kind of come down into Level of again demand if you're looking to buy and what you want to do is look for other Confluences like some horizontal support within that area there So looking now at the New Zealand dollar US dollar and New Zealand dollar US dollar We were they start to turn up at this point so Last week we did get a bit of a pullback back into this area here prices are starting to you know, basically look to probably range within this low and potentially one of these supply highs so We're looking at the New Zealand dollar I still think the the US dollar is gonna be stronger than the US Sorry, the US dollar is gonna be stronger than the New Zealand dollar. So Any short trades you're looking at, you know getting Short here as we've got also a level of some levels of support here supports your term resistance in areas of value But if you are looking to take advantage of some Potential dollar weakness and really we've had, you know, really no significant pullback after moving down since March End of March and we're now in June. So Potentially because be starting to see some profit taking going on in this area and Prices may start to pull back and this could be some shorting opportunities into the week buying opportunities You'd really have to believe that the New Zealand dollar is Probably getting stronger than the US dollar or you're gonna be taking advantage of some US dollar weakness potentially and especially that we've seen it on the Dow Jones dollar index so potentially we could see weakness and then the New Zealand dollar strengthen in that department When it comes to new demand zones, what I am gonna do is just clean this up a little bit There I think that's about it. Yeah, that'll do Now moving on to the pound dollar and the pound dollar Last week we came up into this supply zone and then sold off and now we've come down into this demand zone again coming down into this Horizontal support as well putting in a little pin bar here So we could again see the same thing Like the New Zealand dollar where we've had Prices really just come down. No, really no pullback So we could see some sort of pullback Coming into the market Doesn't mean that you should necessarily get along if you are You know, I guess a trend trader then you'd be looking for short trades So, you know the dollar as much as it's going through its problems, you know with the trade war I think the British pound is is it's gonna be is worse off at the moment So short trades Pack up into, you know, this supply zone here Or if prices come up all the up here, that's a good maybe a few hundred pips, but I Would probably say anywhere within this area here Is a decent shorting opportunity if you are looking to get long now is probably the time or Better yet low really the low of the range, but from a fundamental perspective, you know the dollar I think is the is the currency to buy Looking at the euro dollar and Euro dollar this week Price is pushed up touch this supply zone here and then pretty much sold off nice nice trade there and Again, we're in this we're in a range between, you know, this high and this low What I mean by that is I Got to the euro dollar a bit of a high and a bit of a low Was that significant because the market is saying that this is an expensive area and this is a cheap area, right depending on which Currency you're buying so from a dollar from the dollar perspective This was this was a bargain and you can see why bargain prices into that supply zone and You know buyers pretty much got in and to buy the dollar you need to press sell on the euro dollar Currency as it is the quote currency. You can see what prices pretty much sold off Now is this gonna be a bargain area for the euro at the moment This could be profit-taking or it could be a blind opportunity and especially if you know the dollar starts to get weak Get weaker. Also, we've get some positive news out of Europe Right, then this could potentially be a decent trade to the upside. I think prices Maybe we've gone a bit too far at the moment So you'd be looking for some sort of pullback in today Before looking to get long just be careful though that this level has been touched, you know Once twice the three times again the weaker levels touch or the more levels touch the weaker they become so And they're more open and susceptible to manipulations right so Yeah, just be careful right now Prices are really up to this fair value area between this high and this low So this isn't necessarily the best area to look for any kind of long trade You'll be looking for maybe a kind of pullback if you're looking to buy the euro And if you are looking to buy the dollar then you'd be looking for prices to probably come up to you know This this high here before looking at getting short But every area would be this area here. It's one one three level Moving on to the euro yen and With risk-off sentiment, we've literally just again continue to sell off You know the yen has Strengthened and continue to strengthen Europe's going through its own problems So again, no surprise to see this start to occur So what I'm gonna do first is just adjust this this demand zone Down to around here. I'll keep that supply zone and what I'll do is I just make it a couple of Supply zones here. I think this one Right here So what you're looking for if you're trading risk-off is pull back into supply or Any of these levels here? You do have an area where it has been touched as support and resistance in the past Probably maybe a bit wider. So there Well, you've had resistance support support Bit of support here then resistance. So you've also got value from supply zones You've also got technical traders looking to get short potentially in these areas as well So decent if there is bit of positive news for the euro and Looking at some long trades in and around these areas here moving on to the Aussie US dollar and Last week we did kind of just really smooth sideways to be fair It really wasn't any any strong moves with the RBA Reserve Bank of Australia potentially coming out and You know a monetary policy this week and we could see again some some short trades and I think the Australian dollar The Reserve Bank of Australia is going to be very dovish. They were talking about cutting last month They didn't cut so I think they're probably going to end up cutting again as the also cutting again or looking to cut interest rates as the China war escalates So what we have Is potentially if you see a move up into this level this week I'm looking for some short trades and From a demand perspective if you were looking to potentially buy The Australian dollar Then These would be your options this one this demand zone here isn't necessarily the strongest It has made a new high, but it wouldn't be the strongest area You'd want to see prices really kind of you know turn up a bit more Before looking to potentially get short, but those your areas To look for potential long trades, but I'm looking for short trades on this pair and Finally you have the Australian dollar Japanese yen And again risk of being in the market You know you had the Japanese yen Strengthening there was you know some buying opportunity, but you know Again risk of sentiment kind of took over and you can see where prices are falling. So this week update in the charts I'm gonna move this demand zone slightly down again a bit more just to give it a bit more room So maybe around here what you have is probably a wider supply zone right here Put up to that high there So again what you be looking for Intra day as well So you use the daily demand zones and then you be looking for or daily supply zones and then looking for prices to kind of come Back up into These sorts of areas if you're looking to trade risk off from risk on perspective Everything starts to turn out as in work out Then now is really the time potentially for any kind of Long trades, but again you'd be looking specifically for some positive news and not just positive news just I would say for you know the China and and the US to really kind of de-escalate the the war rhetoric so That's pretty much it for this week Hope you have enjoyed the analysis if you do like subscribe and comment in the section box below I hope you all have a great trading week and guys take care