 What's up, everybody? Ricky Careuth here. Welcome back to my channel. Today, I want to talk to you about why I feel like we're fixing to have a massive real estate surge. I also want to give you my reaction to the Patrick Beck David webinar where he thinks it's the end of the world when it comes to real estate, that we're in this massive real estate bubble, and we're going to see a repeat of 2008. I hope that you're having a great day, great week, great month, great year. Hope you're out there crushing it, and not worrying about all this stuff because none of this stuff matters. I hope you're chasing your dreams. I hope you can visualize where you're going to be in the next five years based on what you're doing now. I also want to share with you the most interesting existing home sales data that we've seen in a long time that just came out. And before we get into that, let's get into the question of the day here. This comes from Instagram. Hey, Ricky, how would you handle a seller that wants to sell that has had many conversations about prepping their property for sale but keeps dragging their feet? They keep telling me next month, but our local market is shifting and price reductions are happening daily. I'm not sure what to tell them other than don't wait too long. This is a super interesting question. I'm sure a lot of you guys are thinking about this right now. And I just want to tell you, first off, you never try to advise a client based on what you think is going to happen. Even though you may know in your mind, you're like, prices are going down, price reductions are happening. No, price reductions are happening because people are asking too much for their properties. The values are still going up. Even month over month, we're still seeing prices go up. They went up 2% month over month from May to June, 3% from April to May. We're still seeing values go up. The problem is we have a lot of sellers that are in denial that are asking way too much for their property. And we're seeing those listings of those motivated sellers start to reduce prices. That doesn't mean that prices are going down. That means they were asking too much in the first place. Try to come back down and look at the data and realize that we're in an increasing market right this second. Now, that could change. It all depends on interest rates. If interest rates go to the moon, sure, we may see a slight leveling out or even decrease of prices, but we don't know. A lot of experts are calling for what the rates are now to stay around the levels that they are for a long, long time, a year, 18 months, stuff like that. And whether that happens, who knows? But that's neither here nor there. We're not in a decreasing market right now or the prices are not decreasing. So when we see price reductions, don't let it scare you. Okay, value is still going up. And what I've told the agent is, wait a minute, prices are still increasing. So technically, the longer he holds it, the more he'll be able to sell it for. And that might be what the seller is looking at here. He might think, hey, prices are still going up every month. Why don't I take my time to fix this property up? It's going to be worth more later anyway, plus the upgrades that I'm doing, it's going to be worth even more than what it's worth right the second. At the same time, I get it. Time is of the essence. Maybe the market does shift. We don't know. And, you know, let's go ahead and make this happen. I totally get it, but this seller doesn't sound like they're that motivated to really move quickly. There's no urgency behind their actions and you can't twist their arm and make them put it on the market. Spend your time focusing on other sellers that may be more motivated and try to go after more clients. This is the classic focusing too much energy on this one client and thinking more quality instead of quantity. You have to find the balance between quantity and quality. So, nurture this relationship. Stay in touch. Give them the data every week as new data comes out about the market to keep them on the front end of that data. Allow them to make the decisions of when they want to do what they want to do and then just help them do it. Thank you so much for this question. Guys, I'm answering every single message on Instagram. Please reach out to me there if you have any questions whatsoever. I'm happy to help and keep sending me your results and your big breakthrough moments. I love seeing that stuff. I'm so proud of you. Now, let's dive into this Patrick Beck David really quickly because he did a webinar and it was funny because a week before that Dave Ramsey did the his webinar where he's illustrating that prices are going to increase every year for the next five years. Now, the way that Dave laid this out, it made total sense. He totally convinced me that prices are going to increase for the next five years, not as quickly as it has been, but that they will increase. Who knows? But he convinced me through his data and what he shared that it's the strongest possibility out of all the different possibilities we see right now. So when I saw the advertisement that Patrick was going to do a webinar on why he feels like prices are going to decrease, it's going to be 2008 all over again. I was like, this is the Super Bowl for me. This is something I'm going to tune in every second of. So here I am ready to watch this. I'm coming with an open mind. I'm wanting to, I'm wanting Patrick to convince me that it's going to be 2008 all over again and I'm looking for the data. I want to hear what he's thinking. So I was super excited. So I sit down to start watching this. I've got my popcorn and I'm watching this thing. And there were so many red flags for me with everything that he was saying. So first off, one thing incredible that Dave did was he showed a chart that showed interest rates and it showed prices since like the mid 1970s. Here it is fixed rate mortgage average versus median home prices since the mid 70s. And so you see right here, the blue line, the mortgage rates, how they went up and almost touched 20% there and around 1981, 1982. And how they started to come back down and you kind of see all the way to present day, how they shot up here lately. But you also see prices here in the late 70s and you see this line of prices, you know, meander here and it never goes down. It levels out a little bit there in 1983, 1984, kind of levels out a little bit. It continues to go up. Prices never decreased until 2008. This is a really incredible chart and graph to look at because it shows the relationship between prices and mortgage rates. And what do we find here when we look at this? Well, we find out that there is no relationship. This is not correlated. When the mortgage rates go up, it doesn't mean prices are going to come down. As I was watching Patrick's webinar and why we're going to have another 2008, I was waiting for him to bring up the prices since the 1970s, just the way Dave did. Of course, Patrick talked about the interest rates that went up to 18%, but he never talked about how prices never went down during that time. So I thought that was very interesting. That was the first red flag. I was like, wait a minute, you know, why is he hiding that statistic? The next thing it went into was how much more it costs to own a house in this year, right? Because prices are still at all-time highs and mortgage rates have went up, right? And property taxes went up because values have went up. It costs you way more. You know, he showed a bunch of different areas, Phoenix, Nevada, you know, Oklahoma, Tampa and all these different places. And it was ranging anywhere from like 80% to 100% more to own a house when you count mortgage payments, insurance and taxes for the year. He was saying like, you know, it cost you $25,000 a year to own a house. Last year, it cost you $45,000 to own that same house this year. And he showed all this stuff and I guess his point was, hey, people won't be able to afford this. You know, the regular Joe's out there won't be able to afford this. Well, absolutely they won't be able to afford it. That's why we're down 14% transaction-wise. And the people that are buying are getting vetted so hard by the banks. The banks know that these buyers can afford these houses. There's so much regulation so the people that are buying can't afford it and the ones that can't aren't. So we're not getting into trouble because of this data. Also 25% of the transactions right now are cash where there are no mortgages involved. So only 75% of the transactions which are down 14% are using mortgages and those people that are getting mortgages can afford it. So this is not evidence that we're moving into a bubble or that we're getting into trouble here into the market. And let's just say for example that all 75%, that 100% of those 75% of people who use mortgages end up in trouble and have to foreclose. Well, that's still a small sliver of the entire industry. It wouldn't be enough to bring the entire market down and crashing and burning. And the final point I want to make here that really threw me off was he started talking about price reductions. He was showing properties where, you know, they were asking $3 million and they reduced it, you know, $500,000. He was showing $400,000 homes that were reducing at $50,000 and $100,000 reduction here, $20,000 reduction there and all these reductions. And guess what terminology he used? He said these people are reducing their property values. And I thought, oh my gosh, did he really just say that? These people aren't reducing the property values. The property values is what the property is actually worth, which is what somebody's going to pay for it. And that's going to be that closed sales price. Well, property values are still climbing. As I said, 3% month over month from April to May, 2% month over month from May to June, right? Property values are still increasing. And he used the word property values instead of asking price. You can ask whatever you want. If it's $3 million for a home, it's worth $2 million. He reduced it $500,000 at 2.5. You're still overpriced and you haven't reduced the value of the home. The value is still worth $2 million. The asking price got reduced by $500,000 because they were asking too much in the first place. So for him to come out and say all this stuff really made me realize he's trying to scare everybody for what reason I don't know. And then boom, we get to the end of the webinar. And it all hit me like a ton of bricks. He was pushing his event, the vault. So let's scare everybody into thinking there's a crash. We're going to do, you know, the real estate bubble explained video and webinar. Get everybody in the same place at the same time. And at the end, boom, sell them on our event, the vault. I thought it was kind of a cheap shot, honestly. Now let's dive into this existing home sales data. This is incredible. And this is what you guys really want to pay attention to. There's so much to unpack here. Here we go. Existing home sales slid 5.4% in June. Okay, but look at this. Properties remain on the market for a record low 14 days. We've got 14 days on the market. That's a record low. They've been collecting this data since 2011. So we don't know what those days on the market were back in the 040203045 range when we saw that surge. But this 14 days on the market is even lower than it was last year. When the market was crazy on fire, this is lower on average days on the market. That's what's very interesting. So let's unpack this. We're at a record high median existing home sales price of $416,000. That's a new high. It's never been $416,000. Okay, prices have climbed 13.4% year over year. Okay, this statistic is very interesting. Inventory rose to $1.26 million by then in June, or the equivalent of three months of inventory. So last month, we were at 2.6 months of inventory. So it jumped from 2.6 to three months of inventory. That's very interesting. And what's interesting about it is, is once we hit five months of inventory, that's a balanced market between buyers and sellers. Anything above five is considered a buyer's market. So that's a number to watch. But when you look at the fact that inventory is rising, but we still have a record low $14 in the market, you got to think, what gives? How can we have both? How can we have rising inventory, but we have lower days on the market? Well, here's the facts. And this is what I've been talking about the whole time is that we're in the seller denial market where people are pricing their properties based on the market last year and how, what the strategies were there for pricing. You basically just price it whatever you want. Well, you can't do that this year, but sellers are still doing it. And that's why we're seeing an increase in inventory. I believe that the viable listings are probably about the same as far as the properties that are priced correctly. So the 14 days on the market is not taken into account the properties that aren't selling because they're overpriced and they're just sitting on the market. It's only accounting for the closed sales. So the properties that are priced right are selling quicker than ever before. What does that tell you? We're in one of the strongest seller markets that we've ever seen, right? And we have more inventory, even of the viable listings. Even though they're selling faster, we're getting more of those viable listings on the market. As we dig deeper here, we see that cash sales accounting for 25% of transactions in June and the distress sales foreclosures and short sales represented less than 1% of sales in June. So we are seeing a surge of foreclosures and short sales, but that's coming from the fact that this has been sitting on banks' desks for over a year and they're just getting to where they can unload them and push them through the system. It's not like a lot of people are just all of a sudden laid on payments and you have a lot of list pendings and pre-foreclosures. No, that's not what's happening. This is stuff that's been sitting on desks for a while now. So I think that as you look at all this data, you look at the Dave Ramsey scenario, you look at the Patrick Beck-David scenario, you look at this report and you read further articles and everything else. And you put all this together. I think the biggest punchline here is that A, we're going to be just fine. B, it doesn't matter if it crashes and burns or not for us as agents. We're going to go out there and help people do what they need to do. And C, we need to educate our sellers. Educate our buyers on what the market is. The market is changing so fast right now. And as we move towards that new normal market where we're going to be in more of a normal market scenario, we need to educate our sellers. What you need to do, here's your homework. You need to go into your MLS and you need to find your average days on the market for your market. And you need to share that with your seller. You say, listen, we're at all-time high price-wise and we're at a record low on days on the market. And so what does that tell you, Mr. Seller? I'll tell you what it tells me. It says, if we price our property correctly, we're going to sell it for the most amount of money within a week or whatever the days on the market are for your market. It also tells me that if we overpriced the property and we don't sell it within a week or two or three and we're not getting very many showings, that we evidently obviously overpriced this listing. This is a very price-sensitive market, Mr. Seller. And we need to price it correctly to get the most money and take advantage of this incredible market that we're in. So go to your local MLS, find out your local stats, days on the market, how many months of inventory do you have in your market? You can check that by taking the active listings in your market, the number of active listings and divide that by the number of closings in the last 30 days. Stay on top of your local markets data and educate your buyers and sellers so that they can make the best decision possible. Now, the one reason why I felt like we're going to have an uptick in real estate transactions for the rest of the year is because of pent-up demand. The fact that we've had less transactions so far this year just tells me that demand has been building up because it didn't go anywhere. And when interest rates went up and our buyers took a step back to kind of recalibrate what they want to do and how they want to do it, they've just been sitting on the sidelines saying, OK, and we're going to get to that inflection point very soon where they realize 5.5% interest rate is the new norm. We have more inventory to choose from. Let's get out there and get something because they're waiting around for prices to come down. That's just not happening. And at some point, they're going to say, we better go in and we better go in hard and they're going to have more options. And who are they going to call? You. It doesn't matter what the market's doing. Get out there and help people. OK, that's it for today. You guys get out there and crush it. We'll see you in the next video.