 What is up everybody? Welcome to the penultimate week of the PGA tour We're on to the BMW championship after a very very late finish at the Northern Trust, but we did get to see Our guy I think it's probably safe to say our guy pretty much everyone's guy Tony Fina pick up his second PGA tour win his first and quite some time and I mean yeah, John Rom was Maybe kind of he may be kind of kicked it away Cam Smith also going out of bounds on his First tee shot in the playoffs, but we can't take anything away from Tony Fina And we're moving on to the BMW championship at a brand new course for the PGA tour at Caves Valley Golf Club So welcome on in to the Fandall PGA Q&A for this week. I'm your host Brandon Gadoula I'm the managing editor over at numberfire.com I'll be breaking down the entire field the Fandall slate from like a game theory perspective the betting odds my win simulations and whatever she would like because this is a Q&A Format so just hit up the comment section on YouTube Facebook Twitter or Twitch if you have questions for this week's event I'm gonna start as I always do by just looking at the field here and there is one name getting a ton of Love from a betting standpoint and that is John Rom it plus six fifty two win on Fandall sports book Justin Thomas the only other golfer shorter than plus two thousand he is listed at plus 1800 they've Colin more cow at Xander Shafley Bryson DeShambo all at twenty to one Jordan Spieth Dustin Johnson Tony Fina 22 to one Patrick Cantlay Rory McElroy 23 to one And then we do start to get to a bit of a drop off after Brooks Kepka Louie we stays in in Cam Smith at 25 to one and then we jump down into that 30 to one range Now we have 69 golfers in the field, so it's a nice size for this week But no cut you have to make it to the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings to play in the tour championship Next week, but as you can tell from this field super strong super deep for this week And that kind of changes a lot of stuff no cut Does change the way that we play things and as I talk about kind of all the time a no-cut event feels like maybe It's it's a week where we just Kind of punt very frequently and I do think there are low salaried plays In contention for this week, but based on their research. I have done You really can't get careless because some golfers will just fall behind Over four rounds even though they're guaranteed rounds and they might as well have missed the cut So kind of want to avoid that despite that again, I do think there are some golfers even though in the 7,000 range That we can bank on Whether we have to do that or not is kind of up to whether we're building around superstars in Mean John Rom his salary is 12,000 on Fandle So it's really not that hard to get to him He's not that high that much higher than anyone else the under Shroff lay at 11 7 so I mean I think we're gonna play John Rom and a lot of cash games Lock him into cash games as I talked about on the heat check PGA podcast with Jim Sonos earlier today Kind of thinking about 60 to 70% exposure for John Roman tournaments, which sounds crazy But in my win simulation model, he's over 50% likely to finish in the top 10 with how good he's been So I think I think it's just drawn wrong week Once again, and we kind of go from there Again, if you have any questions hit up the YouTube a Facebook Twitter or Twitch Comments section and I will get to those you can be head-to-heads. It can be some some golfers You're thinking of outright bets, but for now I will dig into the course caves Valley because there's not a whole lot of information I did my best in my course primer on Number fire calm. We have a par 72 this week. That's over 7,500 yards And the average green size rating out at 5,200 square feet bent grass greens Unresponsive page, so I just leave this for a second But it has been lengthened recently to get up to PGA tour standards And these greens are smaller than average at 5,200 square feet average on the PGA tour is around Just over 6,000 so not substantially smaller We actually have small greens last week and that like 4500 range, but scores did go low last week, so Gonna close out of that here anything else relevant on the GCSA page We have bent grass greens as I mentioned reduced bunkers they did narrow down the fairways, but Not a whole lot of information For the course. It's actually pretty Like pretty exclusive from what I can tell not a whole lot of golfers. I think we'll be familiar with it I would kind of imagine golfers who Miss the cut have a little bit of a leg up in a sense just because they might have more time to prepare for this now golfers who miss the cut but also Made it to the top 70 some of the better golfers including Colin more cow. I Dustin Johnson Jason coke rack So, you know, it's an angle I think at least especially with and I wouldn't feel quite so strongly about that if it wasn't for the fact that we had a late Monday finish, so it's just something especially at a course where we We don't really know anything Now if you do look at the I'll go back to the betting odds here You look at some of the longer hitters and they kind of are getting Bumped down as in closer to favorite status John Rom super big favorite I'm the section something that that Jim Ston has pointed out to me on the heat check podcast I mean it kind of clicked But you know once he said that I was like, yeah, this makes a ton of sense Bryson at plus 2,000 He's been a lot lower than that. I'm DJ falling back a little bit after the missed cut But still up there not not a huge overreaction Tony Fino, you know, personally the win but also super big hitter Cameron champ 65 to 1. I think like when you whenever you see Cameron champ, he's probably a good barometer and a lot of senses for Just how is the rest of the field kind of shaping up? And if you see cam champ, I know it's a smaller field But and cam champ also seems to be a little bit shorter than usual shorter than he probably should be most most weeks because he has like he's has converted some wins But cam champ just a really long hitter So I think that's kind of the most obvious angle for the week, especially With the course rating out over 7500 yards So I think that's kind of the one of the key stats for this week is is not just driving distance They're stroking off the tee and stroking it off the tee actually Comes a lot more from driving distance than just fairways hit So I think for me the key stats for caves valley are going to be just kind of ball striking first and foremost So stroking approach stroking off the tee If you look at the hole by hole Which I have in my article on number fire, but Page wasn't working lots of long par threes And so proximity from either 175 plus or more specifically 200 plus which you can find On pga tours website I think that's relevant for this week Just because we have longer par threes. We're going to see a lot of longer approach shots into your greens Especially for shorter hitters. So if we can find some shorter hitters who actually have good proximity numbers with those long irons or hybrids from 200 Plus 175 plus something like that. I think that could be an angle For this week question from dj on facebook thoughts on eric van royne So van royne is an elite teeter green golfer generally I will just pull him up on the data golf query rather than my Spreadsheet just because this includes all european tour stuff um, and I don't know exactly How many of his rounds would come from the european tour looks like none over the past six months But while i'm here, it's gonna stick with it. Um, if you look at him over the past six months Typically a good teeter green golfer hasn't quite been there 60th out of 69 against 69 golfers this week Teeter green the irons have been particularly bad. Um, so let's dig closer into him on the data golf Log here won the barracuda, which isn't going to have any of those granular strokes gained It's also stable for an event. So it's not quite the same but You know, that's you can't really knock even an alternate field When an alternate field You're gonna be still pretty strong relative to everything else, but you see all these missed cuts here Um, that's kind of hard to get behind now. I like eric van roijn generally Because we can see him gain strokes With the off the t play and generally with the approach I guess he's been a little more spotty than I kind of Realized overall, but when you know when his when his sample was smaller He rated out as a really good teeter green golfer, but on that seventh last week at the northern trust Came a lot from putting And that is not typically what you want to see especially for someone whose game isn't Particularly based around putting Um, he's had some you know one strong year putting Kind of baseline other than that a little bit negative. Um, so I'm not necessarily chasing eric van roijn He's not someone that I'm uh looking to build around Again, I would still be willing to buy in to the teeter green performance that he's capable of We've seen him Kind of linger in you know a little bit tougher fields sometimes, but for me I'm looking elsewhere other than evr uh for this week alex noran Um, also just just because i'm here Keep it simple. Um Over the past six months Alex noran 59th and approach really good short game, which is kind of what you expect from noran Third and putting in that sample. Let's pull him up take a closer look At the week by week, uh for me generally, I don't care what what your salary is now I did like I did like noran at the open But if you are basically Like pro worldwide pro average with your off the tee and your approach that's your ball striking stats If you're basically average and he has been for the most part in his career Uh, that's not going to draw a whole lot of attention for me, especially whenever the the bookmakers odds are implying heavily That It's going to be a distance based course now If you look at the finishes from noran, he's got the three Top 16s and two top fives in his past five starts But again the t4 at the northern trust did so With a really strong putting performance The irons were there not the off the tee play and good around the green numbers So not necessarily what i'm looking for actually i'm going to pull up Fantasy national just pull up anyone who played last week and go To the northern trust because i want to know more specifically Where noran ranked putting first An eric van roijn fourth So those are kind of outliers. Um, now that doesn't mean that they can't replicate that putting is not completely random But you do you do want to see better tee degree numbers than them Uh, and you know, you can see here. They're down around average with noran 1.2 I don't know where evr wound up, but At 1.9. So again, you know, and I talked about this on the heat check this morning to One week of date is not enough to draw conclusions. So that's why you want those longer samples and I think at least six months Um, you can get 14 events. I think that's pretty good Uh, sort of baseline. I do look at like 20 rounds and in three months sometimes just to see who's like really playing well currently But I think you want to expand that a little bit more and if you look at the past 12 months for noran 53rd tee degree and so Um, that's kind of my problem with noran uh, he's actually If i'm not mistaken generally better in the world golf. Okay, so he's not better in the world golf rankings than data golf rankings I like data golf rankings because obviously they're data-based, but um, do a better job I think of adjusting for field strength looking at the underlying data Uh, but noran typically seems like he's someone who is a bit higher in the win odds than then kind of pops up in my model So for me not necessarily looking uh at alexander noran and I don't want to just kind of Brush brush over some recommendations. So I will bring up my spreadsheet now For the week. These are the top five in salary, but um, I'll go Um and look at eric van royne. She's 8300. I mean, that's a good salary, right? Uh, all things considered and we see the outlier odds here at 80 to 1 For him just one of the weaker Uh guys in my combo model, which is basically your long-term adjusted form And then how you rank out in the stats that I'm looking for for the week So 53rd there and then I don't even know noran. Okay, noran's 8600. So again Uh pretty solid You know win odds from a sports book standpoint, but not necessarily from what my win simulation model says Um, same for van royne a little bit overvalued there. So I'm not chasing And I mean it makes sense both top 10 performances last week. I typically see Um, you know those over reactions So I'm not going there, but instead you can see some some value golfers. I like similar salaries She's in coke rack again missed the cut Last week, but a much better uh t-degree player Um, so he is 53rd percentile t-degree nor 19th van royne 22nd and for me Stroke scan data when I cite that that's from the past year But it is weighted for both field strength and recency So more recent rounds to get more weight. So for me coke rack makes more sense cam train golly as well charlie hoffman and Possibly brian harman. I'm a little bit lukewarm on harman Because his approach numbers are pretty bad. Um, all things considered 16th percentile But he is one of a few golfers who played here In 2007 which you know sounds like it's been a long long time ago and it has been but there was a college event here The palmer cup in 2007 Um, dustin johnson played here brian harman uh, billy horschel web simpson And I think chris kirk played here. Um So for the fact that this is an exclusive club. I think there's a little bit of credence to that But no and in the in the lower salary range I prefer a lot of other golfers uh to those two specifically, but those are good shout outs dj um Because it's always good to look at guys who finish top 10 One way you can see, you know, hey is this or are we kind of missing something? And I think even if we dig lower, which we don't have to max homa and miliana grillo and taylor gooch Rating out fairly well for me. They kind of have some good data T-degree relative to the salary. So Um, I'm looking at those guys more Um in the lower salary range, but again, thanks for the question dj So i'm going to go back up to the top of the salary pool Because I don't have any other questions. Again, if you have questions Hit up the youtube chat twitch Uh, facebook twitter, uh, whatever you'd like, um, whatever you're watching this on and I will get to those But for now, i'm going to jump back up to the the top of the salary pool For the bmw championship and look at Specifically john rom First and foremost because his win simulations or my win simulations have him winning this thing 11.4 of the time Uh, basically everyone else is around 3.8 percent or lower. I think patrick can't lay second at 3.8 percent But super big cluster. We see that in the sports book odds. We see that in my win simulations On the top 10 numbers above 50 percent. It's just crazy I mean while i'm actually talking about this Um, I kind of again my my data accounts for a recency and again, I don't like use 20 rounds as a sample but John rom unsurprisingly first overall in total strokes gained, uh, their data golf's true strokes gain but The rato she's doing that a 4.08 is basically like two strokes better than all but three golfers and that's not even like you know Over the field average It's like these are the the other golfers golfing at their peak and a super recent sample And rom is like twice as good as other golfers peaks right now. So That is why he is so heavily favored this week. Um, It's just why I think that you can't really make a case against john rom and cash games if you're playing it you know playing head to heads, um Even small field events. You just look at this ball striking data. It's virtually always a green He's a really good wedge player for being such a long hitter and I don't like to look just that finishes but Whenever you see good t-degree data good ball striking data and it's leading to good finishes like that is exactly what you want to look for Um, so for me rom is clearly the number one. I think you can be just overweight in him in tournaments He's around 38 Percent rostered on fandal this week. I would assume that goes up to about 45 percent possibly even 50 percent because of uh, the field being smaller and rom nearly winning again and I typically would want to say Hey, I'm not going to roster a golfer at 50 percent, you know roster rate, but We're gonna know it's a no cut event. So you can't even really play the angle of like, hey, maybe rom Like it has a bad Thursday and just misses barely misses the cut The odds that john rom goes from beating everyone else's peak by like two shots per round To being irrelevant this week It's going to take such an outlier. So i'm not really there fading john rom Um, and you know, I can't really argue against any of these other golfers at the top But for me, I think because i'm playing so much drawn rom Realistically, I want you to save some salary. So i'm gonna look. Um To a few guys here Johnson coming off a missed cut After can't lay and victor hovland um All good salaries relative to expectations here. Um Really good, you know data for dj even though we kind of think of dj not being in his Proper form which he really isn't all things considered But still 93rd percentile and adjusted t-degree in performance over the past year with all my adjustments Just doesn't really hit fairways. That's the only red flag in his profile a positive bentgrass putter Hard to argue against that. He's gonna make birdies Um, I mean you could maybe say that he's just isn't isn't engaged, but we're basically looking at Lots of money on the line this week at a course where and I made this joke earlier today, too But like, you know dj's played here other golfers haven't whether dj remembers playing here I don't know because he seems like he doesn't really like Remember every round he's ever played which is understandable But like I've heard him say in the past that he's not totally certain that he's played courses But either way, I think dj is going to be a super strong leverage play this week With everyone else sort of gravitating toward john rom at the top patrick cantley Just 10,700 if you start with rom and cantley I'll just pull up rom again, but Basically getting like no No worries here at any of the data super consistent super balanced profiles between each each guy And you can probably throw victor holland into that mix, too Um, I mean zander is like the poster boy for Consistency and rating out well and every stat, but his salary is 11,700. So a little bit more Uh problematic to get to then just patrick cantley or victor holland, um, you know Cantley a really strong vent grass putter holland a little bit negative, but Overall not a huge question mark and if he doesn't break his putter again Probably going to putt better than he did Last week So I think that's kind of how i'm looking at the top of the field with a lot of john rom and then bumping down to patrick cantley And victor holland For this week and then because it is a strong field. We have A pretty solid Like mid tier paul casey. I think is a great play. He's eighth in my stats model For this week, but 17th in salary Uh stats in a form model. I should say it combined the both of them Um, and then for the absolute mid range. We have a lot of names I wouldn't I wouldn't be against aberham answer Uh, I wouldn't be against dan burger, honestly either, uh, but abe answer I think it makes a lot of sense if we think that distance isn't the isn't a must and he does still gain strokes off the t 75th percentile there Over the past uh past year With some adjustments baked in web simpson Not the best form of this health is but Wouldn't really hate that either. I think adecchi is a great play this week If it is going to be a teeter green golf course, uh, and if he can just make some putts That's obviously where he struggles most Great elsewhere. Just a poor putter For me, here's english on a little bit too Heavy on the short game right now With the ball striking not rating out as well as some of these other golfers in this field and then kory connor shane larry Walkie neiman seam burns all makes sense Um, if you're looking for like a distance build I mean, it's it's a pretty easy case to go with neiman and burns as some sort of lower end value plays Um, and then possibly even charlie hoffman Um, I think that's a pretty strong That could be a pretty strong Sort of archetype build um for this week build around john rom Build around some of those lower end values with good driving data For this week. How do I feel about chris kirk? All right, let me look chris kirk understandably Low win odds here but Good around the green play not a whole lot of birdies from him Um, let me look closer at him From a sort of chris kirk. All right Again, he is someone who played here um Yeah, I I don't know I'd like to see more positive numbers in the approach play A little bit more positive Off the tee. Where does he rank? Yeah, not the best he agreed but I mean for the salary of 7200 I wouldn't hate it, but for me. I'm gonna go with uh Taylor gooch is down there 7400. Um, I'd really recommend finding an extra 200 in salary to get up From kirk to gooch, uh, or even grillo and max homa But that's kind of what i'm seeing with kirk don't necessarily love that for this week, but I wouldn't I I really couldn't talk you out of it because he does have uh, some of the better better odds down here, uh, so Man, I'm usually a chris kirk guy, but I'm gonna say For me, it's gonna be taylor gooch really really find that salary to get up to taylor gooch this week That is going to be all the time I have for today I'm gonna bring on jim sonnis and we're gonna transition over Uh to the mlb portion of the show When did you add in the the dots and the arrows and stuff like that? It's pretty fancy like like a year ago Oh, wait, what? Yeah, it's been on there for like forever Uh, are you sure because like I've watched most of these things. Yeah, and Paid very close attention to every word you said just the same as when we're on a podcast together And for some reason I've never noticed these arrows and stuff. Yeah, that's been there. Um Actually since I started doing this what in january or something. I have no idea I can't remember like this morning much less january. I set all this up Uh in like january It's like a million degrees in here too and I had the fan going and then my My throat was getting a little dry and I was like I need jim to come on and like spell me here I'm sure brought you on earlier Release pitcher release talker. Yeah, all right. Well, um, how are you feeling about things this week after? Looking at your sheets feeling good Yeah, I feel great jim. Um, I think this week is going to be a lot of fun I think we're going to see John rom can tend and then see if anyone else can take him down and I would assume based on probability Someone will because I Are you prepared to lose in the bobble hat for the 37th time in the past 38 weeks Uh, yeah, it's been it's been kind of rough Uh, I've been I've been blowing a huge lead in our head-to-head competition against jim I'm up one. I gotta I gotta get my magic number is one Trying to get a friend for all the walls over here. So, uh, good luck. You're uh, you're back in the wall Yeah, I need I need more bobble heads. Anyway, brandon, uh, go shower I don't know. What else does it tell you to do go shower? I don't know go shower or something I feel like that's the probability given by that sweaty. No, I don't know. You said you were hot So just go shower, bud. Just turn the fan off and I got super hot in here Why'd you turn the fan off because you make my throat dry. Did you listen to anything I said? No, I said I need I needed it as well established I've never listened to you in my life But that's why I said I'll see you got number fire slack yelling at me because they think that I think marinara is some great like pasta sauce I just said it was better than alfredo now people are very confused and it's your fault This is all your fault. You flip that What? Oh Yeah, you you said you liked alfredo more I do Not anthony to be clear I just like alfredo sauce better than marinara But people think that I think that alfredo is the best sauce which I don't it's just better than marinara Which is very acidic and very trashy. So You just you've derailed my whole day. Anyway, I'm behind I like Usually if we pull up the the screen share here, usually I am done with the next day's starters by the time we go on here Yeah, and I am Nowhere even close. This is because of you. This is your fault. I hope vodka sauce is the best sauce um Which I I I started getting I mean it was just it's not Vodka sauce is better than straight marinara. I will say that between marinara and alfredo Marinara is better. That's that was the conversation. No, get out of here. Cal. Can you kick him out? Get him out of here? Anyway, that's uh, brandy gondola follow on twitter at gondola 13 We are now going to kick off our mlb dfs q and a for today Luckily, we do know who is starting for today. We have full data. We can dive on in It's a pretty fun slate too because we got a lot of aces show. Hey, otani is here Zach wheeler lucas geolito robbie ray we got some Younger guys lewis castillo brandon woodruff walker bueller and flakes now But then also some younger guys here so a lot to discuss for today So feel free to get those questions in no matter where you're watching youtube twitch Facebook or twitter send those questions in and we'll get you set for today's slate of mlb Dfs let's start things off here with clint over on youtube clint says do the giants tea off again tonight I think so clint. I like them quite a bit and i'm hoping that people don't I was kind of bummed honestly when the giants Lid it up last night because I was really hoping that they would be able to fly into the radar and it's tougher for them to fly under the radar when They're beating up on tyler mcgill so I don't know what the lineup will look like yet because Both the brandons are in doubt because we kicked brandon gadu ladi Here we got brandon crawford and brandon belt bowl thing question if whether they'll play tonight, so It's a it's a lineup that could Deer could fluctuate based on who actually plays so as of right now I like the giants, but I do want to see who is in the lineup for today And if we can feel good about who is able to play but as of right now clint I do like them quite a bit Facing against taiwan walker good results as always, but the career froze lagging a bit This is over his past six darts with his splitter used to being back up Letting up a lot of fly balls not getting a lot of strikeouts That's a rough combination and the giants offense very very good So clint, I would like to stack the giants Hopefully their lineup is in before we close up for today I can give you a more definitive answer on that one dj is asking a philly boston stack Which is zaya gray is my pitcher thought start the gray here. I think he's interesting Super low salary facing the marlins. We like both those things And he's a good pitcher 28 strikeout right across the six outings between the dodgers and the nationals The one downside and the reason that gray is not my favorite value play for today is that the Pitch count is not super high. He has gone 82 or I think it's 71 I think 71 outing was his first one with the national 71 82 87 87 You'd like that a bit longer So I think that's the one downside with joseph gray is pitch count I think he's still at least in play because maybe they'll let him go deeper But I prefer edwin cabrera over him making his debut We can talk more about the barrel later on but uh joseph gray in play I would say dj but not there my preferred value option Then that's gonna fill in boston stacks. I like the boston stack a lot facing off With bailey ober not getting enough strikeouts not suppressing hard contact enough so Red Sox are the top stack for me as far as philadelphia goes the fillies are facing ryan yarbro I don't hate it because he does let it fly balls. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts His velocity was down his most recent time out which is first start back off the covet list So that is positive the one reason i'm not like super itchy to stack the fillies is that yarbro Does a tremendous job suppressing hard contact. So that's a pretty big concern for me in terms of stacking Again, it's not going to toss him out of play for me. I think that they are a team We could consider stacking but it is one down. Let's pull up the Contact numbers against yarbro and his first start back because again that velocity was down And if the contact numbers deviated a lot, we could maybe Get more jazz about stacking against him Only two hard hit balls on 13 balls in play. They're both barrel, but still a bit tougher there So philly is an option but not super high on my list. So dr. Kyle Targets for a potential los angeles angel stack the bummer is we can't you show hey otani because he is A pitcher for today on fan duel Which means he is not in play for stacking For us the good thing is otani should be in the lineup and that means that everyone else in that lineup benefits in his presence It means more played appearances more potential for our bi's more potential for run scored So having otani in there is good Even if we can't use him as our pitcher or hitter for tonight So in terms of the angels probably looking at upton. I'm not sure if he'll play He was out of the quad issue it quad or calf issue yesterday. So not a certainty. He'll play Jared walsh didn't get on base a couple times last night back stasi is a catcher So we can't really know for sure that he'll play But I feel like if these guys were in there walsh upton stasi Those would be the first guys you turn to after them is joey dell and brandon marsh the primary guys from me. Let's pull up the angels numbers versus righties this year Adele still has not been great since he came back up But he's shown power and I think that's at least worth something here Still striking out quite a bit 28 strike array versus righties a 113 iso 27% fly ball rate. That's okay brandon marsh probably my preferred guy between the two good results thus far hitting the ball hard striking out a lot too, but I think that he's probably my preferred option between the two. So marsh would be fourth behind upton stasi and walsh and then Goes marsh adele Don't really want to use any of the like non power guys. They're all pretty Pretty boring. So I think those would be the main guys. I would turn to you there savon thoughts on gilbert No, not enough strikeouts in his two starts a 14 strikeout rate I know the pirates are really bad, but he's not a guy who profiles to be a great dfs pitcher again I know it through the new hitter. I know that's great. That's awesome. Good for him I'm and you can never take that away from him, but I'm not going to use him as a pitcher I think I'd rather use batters facing him like Like a reynolds type guy chavis, I think is in play I think I'd rather use those guys than use gilbert as my pitcher savon How would you rank the chicago white socks? I wouldn't use them facing robbie ray Robbie ray is a very talented pitcher gets a lot of strikeouts does not let up a lot of balls in play You can use them for one also if you want because like he lets up home runs, but that is very much not my style I don't do that personally. So uh, no white socks for me. John How would you stack the dodgers for tonight? Um, I probably wouldn't uh, it blake smells another guy who doesn't let up a lot of balls in play This is over his past six starts with a lot of sliders a 32 strikeout rate 13 walk rate that means he's letting the ball play math math math math math Like 44 percent of the time that could be off. I think it's 44. No, he's letting the ball play like 60 No, 56 percent of the time. Wow math is back 56 percent of the time He's letting up a ball in play. That's really low whereas bailey ober for example is At like 75 is that please act is at About 80 percent. So we want to maximize balls in play maximize chances for impactful contact Snow doesn't get us that so i'm not super high on the dodgers for today savon how or can you rank the sincenady hitters? For tonight they're facing brandon woodruff. So no, uh, I would not use them there Mateo, I got my boston bats in miami pitcher. So which two other stacks do you like? So for going miami, which means you're going with edward cabrera That means you can kind of go nuts with your second stack if you want. I do still like the giants in that scenario They are not a super high salary team. So now it's like you're not your splurge I think just straight up They're a pretty good option I would say your second stack there mateo if you have a lot of salary to spend would be cleveland Facing jake lats and cleveland is kind of a thin team in terms of the number of guys We actually want to use but the guys we like there rossario ramirez reyes. They're all pretty good So I would say if you're going with cabrera go with the red socks in cleveland as your primary two stacks Alvin which team best fits a three-man stack from the giants the cleveland Or the the giants the cleveland the giants cleveland or the angels I would say both cleveland and the angels are pretty suited pretty well suited for a three player stack Um specifically because cleveland has like only three guys I want to use so alvin I would say depends on where your salary at uh where your salary is at if you need to say some salary Go the angels go with walsh optin if he's in there stasi, etc. Marsh If you can afford to spend up for some studs rossario ramirez reyes, those are the guys you want to go with So i'm okay with either alvin. I'd say the giants are great for like a four player stack personally But if you're choosing between those options, I would say cleveland if you have a salary to splurge Los angeles if you do not savon is asking if we can get an adelis garcia home run He's facing zack plzak. Uh garcia has not been very good recently, but hey, let's pull up with the numbers here Let's dig on in. I think that plzak is a pitcher who can definitely let up some runs can definitely let up some Dingers as well Problem is it's hard to to stack uh texas just because they are so bad But hey, let's check out at least garcia see what he's been doing recently and see if we can Drum up some enthusiasm For him for tonight. Alrighty, there we go and let's look at the past three weeks. So About august let's just do august first whatever Since august first 37 strikeout rate yikes, that's not ideal Still looking for power which is good not stealing bases though. That's kind of annoying whereas he was previously let's go over to the stack cast a to see what we got cooking over here and A couple barrels, you know, it's uh, it's been fine. The barrel rate is fine Let's look more quickly at the uh the strikeout rate here and see If that's been trending the right way Kind of looks like it hasn't so I think the other least garcia is an option Just because he is a good hitter facing a not elite pitcher But the current form does scare me enough where i'm not super super jazzed to go there Let's talk to fitzy 84 if you're playing a single entry What would be the best strategy to go uh with that a four man stack or a three man stack I would try to get two four player stacks because basically what you're doing then Is you're trying to hit like a two team parlay as opposed to a three team parlay you go with uh two four player stacks You just need two offenses to do well whereas if you do like a three three two You need three offenses to do well and just from a numbers perspective I'd rather do a two team parlay versus a three team parlay in the situation So to me I would try to have as few one offs as possible have things as concentrated as possible Just focus on a couple of offenses and play things like that so I I would try to even single entry Uh try to maximize getting at least one four player stack preferably two but like a four three one is still my preferred Uh construction in a single entry line. Good question. The fitzy. Let's talk to savon. Can you rank arizona arizona? Is facing off with uh, oh brice wilson. Okay, so That's a change. I forgot to check back on that one later on. They had not announced mitch keller yet. So Oops adaisies. Let's go over here and let's go to brice wilson's numbers and see what he's done since the trade See if there's been any signs of positivity for brice wilson Placed on the the injured list due to arm fatigue. Okay, so he's coming off the il to start for tonight And dude, dude. Nope. There we go All right, so since this is going to pittsburgh he has made three starts and Looks like he's he got a couple strikeouts in one of them In that time 4.80 er a the strikeout rate for brice wilson in that time is 13 percent. He is Uh, letting up a 40 art hit rates the ground ball rate is the five ball rate is 38 percent So basically still what he was doing when he was at Atlanta So I think that that means we can use batters who are facing brice wilson The problem is with with arizona you kind of have to be selective and make sure you're not using duds when you go there Looking at the zera's in a lineup, uh, dalton varshows batting seventh kind of annoying given how low he is But he's a good hitter. So I would say he's in play could tell marté very very high sourd so If I were Thinking about this with the context of the entire slate I'm probably not going to be super jazzed about catel marté because I'd rather use a salary on Jose Ramirez There are the red sox guys and stuff like that. So I'm okay with him But would prefer to spend up on other guys Rojas is good move back up to the the top spot in the order. I think he's around $3,000 for tonight Let's go back over here and check out salaries on the arizona guys Um, Rojas $3,000. It's fine. Paven smith also not the Best option I would say So I feel like if I'm like Ranking them out like I mean not considering salary marté would be first but like after considering salary I might go dalton varshows still despite the fact he's batting seventh. He's a good hitter Against righties this year and this doesn't clue when he was really struggling earlier on a 220 iso 49% fly ball rate. He can steal some bags hitting the ball super hard. So dalton varshow Would be one of considering salary. I would go catel marté two Josh Rojas three Paven smith would be four And I think that would be the the primary options for me on this team Peralta just not a big enough fly ball guy walker struggle most of the year It's been a little bit better recently, but I would say Those are the main four for me Let's talk to savon best value hitter for today. It's uh I feel like it depends on who plays for the angels like if we can get upton in there I feel like he might be the top guy I would say that uh max stasi would be in consideration of that if he can wind up playing for today as well So I do want to see that line up before I fully commit to it's a top value option So go over to the giants to check out some salaries on them and see if we can get some updates on Belt and crawford to see if they'll go for today I haven't seen anything on belt yet. So it looks like he's probably gonna go If crawford can't play that could squeeze in someone else to this lineup and that probably make them Pretty interesting alex dickerson Is a risk to lead the game for a pinch hitter tommy listella less so listella hasn't been As powerful as he was last year, but still at least enough. So I'd say those are some options you could Turn to depending what that lineup looks like could be okay with that Oscar Mercado batting fifth for cleveland's that's high enough me to be okay with him I think 25 ish hundred dollars or so Somewhere in that range Oscar Mercado is 24 to dollars. I think that works too. So mercado works I would say the couple angels guys were looking for work and then Preferably like listella if um, you know, we get someone else in there for the giants as well I think that they could be pretty good value options too. Check out the red socks line to make sure we're not missing anyone Nope, that's pretty customary. So or pretty uh, pretty generic So I think that should be the the primary list for today dj stack cleveland with the bullpen game for texas with a 13 With a 1349 position lineup the lineup is out Hedges is not super powerful Um, so I wouldn't really want to go there. I do like I like 234 personally straws not a big power guy I had talked about using him at times earlier on when he was with cleveland or a houston I should say before the trade and that was I don't know. It was pretty short lived. I didn't really feel super enthused about it after the fact So let's go over here and check out what straws done Recently to see if there's been some upside in his profile There we go. All right, so he's still stealing. That's always a good sign As far as the batted ball numbers since he came over let's go here and here In that time 27 hard hit rates pretty underwhelming there Uh, he has only two barrels so far the advanced numbers here 129 I so that's not terrible. That could be worse. I guess so maybe that's a reason to be a little bit okay with him I don't know. It's somewhat the best profile. Let's see what straws salary is here 33 hundred dollars You know, it's a little high I would say if you're looking for other guys in this lineup to use I would say mercado so the five hitter there for you dj and then also You chong I would say would be above hedges for me too. So if you want some lower sour guys I'd prefer mercado and chong over hedges for today Let's talk to jerry. How do you feel about pavetta and wheeler? Love wheeler really tough matchup Facing the rays a really powerful team, but they do strike out 25 strikeout ray versus righty's and wheeler is really good I think that you can better justify Using a pitcher in a tough matchup when they do a great job of of contact suppression wheeler does that just tremendous bad at ball numbers Dozens walk guys get strikeouts just a really good all-around pitcher. So to me Zach wheeler is someone we can turn to even in tough matches, which he does have for today I think that for tournaments. I might like him a little bit more than show. Hey, othani So I very I'm in wheeler as far as nick pavetta goes he is uh facing the twins right here there we go and Not the best numbers the twins also not a terrible offense with uh, despite the losses they've had despite not having Nelson crews alex herealoff trevor larnack, etc. They're not a great offense by any means but They can they can get the job done still so Not super high pavetta, but I do like wheeler a lot dj start washington's riley adams for some salary savings He knows I like edward cabrera a lot. Uh, I think Uh, yeah, he's also batting eighth. So uh in front of a catcher or a pitcher. So no for that reason Let's not let edward cabrera here just for While we're on the subject of him at least tangentially cabrera started the year in a ball Worked his way up kept on getting strikeouts now to the big leagues See these strikeout rates 48 percent 34 percent 37 percent a lot of swings and misses along the entire way Does let us in fly balls. So, you know, it could go awry for sure and didn't didn't have the best dra in triple a but like also Who cares like say it was triple a dra. I think he's been great So I would say if you're looking for a value pitcher for tonight edward cabrera is actually a pretty good one down at $7300 so I'd rather use him as a pitcher than use batters who are facing him for today savannah's asking texas stack It's not the worst idea because police act is definitely someone I feel okay using batters against the problem's texas is so bad So so so so so bad. Let's check out their lineup here okay I I could definitely talk myself into at least garcia. Let's go over here and check out the rangers numbers so you can who we can uh stomach against police act for today Yanni hernandez batting leadoff. He has had 35 played appearances. No extra base hits yet versus righties That's not what you're looking for in terms of ds dfs uh, i say a kinder for lefa not a big upside guy despite the stolen bases doesn't hit the ball super hard. That's uh underwhelming on ethaniel low Nate loo 160 iso. It's okay does this in steals. Uh, that works. I I guess to an extent dj peter's 56 played appearances. Okay profile a lot of strikeouts Yeah, it might be tough for me to get to to four guys. I want to use here. So Andia bonnie is not a big target either So I would say like maybe garcia and lo as like one-offs But it's hard to get to a full four player stack on them despite the fact I am very okay Using batters facing police act savon. Can you rank the giant hitters? It does depend a lot on who's in the lineup and we don't know that yet because of crawford and belt My assumption right now is that belt plays and crawford does not so let's just kind of assume That's the case if we assume that is the case for the giants for today, then branded belt would probably be number one I'm also going to assume posi sits because he got banged up last night, too So let's assume that both posi and crawford are out if that's the case. I'm still okay stacking them That's totally fine by me But I probably put belt one Wade to Lamont Wade, maybe that's crazy, but I don't think it is uh chris brian would be three um Yastremsky's had some issues recently, but still overall really good numbers. So I would go with him next So again, it's uh belt one way to brian three yastremsky four Longoria's on the cobit aisle now And it depends on who plays again looking at uh Dickerson's okay tends to leave a little bit early for pinch hitters and stuff like that defense replacements So not super jazzed about him. Tommy listella plays longer in games Not the highest upside guy, but I would be okay with him, too So fine there. I think that that's kind of the main options. I'm looking at here Uh Wilmer flores might play depending on the status of brandon belt or uh brandon crawford I should say and if he does flores actually has good numbers against righty's here I know we think of him more so In terms of what he does versus lefty, but flores has good numbers versus righties, too So if Wilmer flores gets in there, I would like him pretty decent amount salary is $2,600. So hopefully one more flores is in there because I would like him quite a bit So on I like the giants in boston together. Maybe a little bit of la, uh, I think that's the angels Yeah, the angels there simon. I agree. I think that all those are Really good options. Those are actually my top three stacks from this morning Actually, no the angels weren't in the top three. It was clearly the top three That was because I was annoyed that I couldn't use a tani. So I agree simon. Those are all really good stacks for today simon is asking for any toronto bats No, they're facing gilito. Gila is really good. I'll pass there Diffuse do we like a twins redsox game stack? I don't hate it. I'll say that I would consider hitters on either side. So yeah, I think that's fine. Why not? Jerry, okay Jerry's home run calls for today are and he's going with one soto and bryce harper For the home run calls and likes from the alreys as well. I love from the alreys I think that he is Prima top three for home run calls for today. I've got college swerver up there I like lemont wade and I would say that from the alreys is up there, too So I like those jerry as far as a soto facing cabrera don't really want to use guys against cabrera But it's one soto. So I get that price harper Facing a lefty, but again price harper doesn't matter. He's a lefty. Very good lefty. So I think those ones work I like raise the most of that group Salvatore says I'm late, but I'm thinking of going to the orioles. Okay. They're facing shohai otani. I'll pass Otani is very good You know, it's always good to Be creative try to find ways to be different Otani is probably pretty popular for tonight. Uh, and as uh, salvatore saying now mount castle came through last night Didn't have enough of him. I had the same issue with anthony santan dare I love santan dare and make jokes about how he's a superstar all the time Didn't use enough of him. I had some so it was fine Uh, I had enough to get by at least but I wish I had had more so uh mount castle santan dare both came through last night I don't think I want to use him tonight though against otani Uh diffuse as unless you get the read that otani will be popular and looking for some tournament leverage I would stay away from the orioles. Um, it's diffuse talking to salvatore Yeah, so uh trying to decipher here what to do with the orioles and the angels again I like otani. I think that if you're looking for safety on this lady, he's probably the top guy there He's the one ace. There are a lot of aces, but he's the only ace who's in like a good easy match up for today So to me otani is the safest guy. I do like wheeler a bit more for tournaments Still tempted by robby rey despite the fact the white socks are so good against lefties I just think rey is a tremendous pitcher and the white socks will strike out a bit. They've not been as As um, you know, what's the word one could for? Invincible that's the word not they've not been as invincible against lefties as they had been previously So I would say rey is up there. I'd probably put him after Wheeler so it's like otani wheeler rey And then I'm probably looking at buehler. I know the potteries are really tough We saw aeronola almost no hit them a couple of nights ago And then woodra for me them castio So a lot of good pitchers for today, but again, I do like cabrera too like a Josiah gray Just a ton of good pitchers overall Savanna is asking a Tampa Bay stack. No, they're facing Zach Wheeler He is the best overall pitcher on the slate. No for me Trappa is asking for the top three stacks for today So top three stacks for me. Boston is number one I feel pretty good putting them there against bailey ober good skill interactive era But it's because he doesn't let up Or doesn't let up a lot of walks for dfs though. We don't care about that We just want to maximize balls and play maximize upside chances Ober let's up enough of those so I think that the red socks are number one I like the giants still waiting to see what that lineup looks like for today depending on the health of Crawford and the status of belt as well But I like the giants quite a bit right now. I like Cleveland a lot. Those are the top three Angels knocking on the door So the angels could get bumped up here if both Crawford and Belter out So angels right in that st. Tier with the other options dj. Do you know anything on? Patrick Maseca my home run calls are Javi Baez Travis Shaw Jorge Polanco and Luis arise. I don't know anything about this guys. Let's just look him up patrick Maseca all right Starting a catcher and batting eighth Against the Dodgers. All right. So when he was in triple a a 180 iso. No dj You should you should play out of sight that doesn't require you to play a catcher. I would look for that I think that could save you a lot of consternation here for sure Also, check out fandall.com where you don't play a catcher. Check it out Savon brian reddolds home run. I think that's fine. I think brian reddolds is the one like hyper competent guy on that team Can always feel pretty good about him. I like the matchup against Gilbert. So savon I think that reddolds is actually pretty okay in terms of a home run call for today. Good hitter good matchup I don't mind redolfo Castro if he's in there didn't see if he was Oh, no, he's not sad. No redolfo Castro upsetting michael chavis works though He's minimum salary. So if you need a min salary guy michael chavis would be a guy You could turn to there, but uh, savon brian reddolds someone I very okay with for today Jerry do you think all the big arm pitchers velocity is going down due to the sticky stuff being taken away because a lot of them are giving up runs lately, so It's a good question Velocity is not something that's tied to sticky stuff though. That's more some movement. So a lot of times on my podcast the solo shot you hear me talking about like X X starts since this guy's movement started to decrease. It's actually try to find see if I can find one here. Okay, so Um nick pavetta. This is his past nine starts with the last movement on his fastball Let's go to pavetta here, and I'll show you the way to find this You can find it you can find on baseball savon, but I tend to Try to keep most of my stuff on fan graphs Just because I don't want to bounce back and forth between like 16 different sides all at once But if you want to check movement Go to game log Go to pitch info and then select horizontal movement or vertical movement So if we look here past nine ish starts for pavetta, you see The movement is lower than it was previously. So that could be deviations. So if you're looking for Changes alterations in sticky stuff. I would check out movement over velocity That said there have been a decent number of pitchers who've had their velocity go down a bit recently Robbie ray is one of them. He's been very good with the velocity being down I think overall jerry. It has had a pretty big impact like we've seen a lot of guys all off We've actually seen a lot of injuries potentially tied to that We saw Tyler glasmo complaining about how he thought that led to his injury So I would not be shocked if that were tied to it and if you're trying to decide Okay, is this dude someone has changed I would check out velocity because velocity can change guys can get worn down throughout the course of a year But if you're looking for sticky stuff specifically Check out the movement both horizontal and vertical movement Over on fangrass. Let's now talk to kyle on youtube second baseman at $2,700 or lower Let's go over here and scroll down to $2,700 No, I scroll past it my bad And I don't want to use Fletcher. Hopefully Wilmer flores plays that make this a very easy question So, uh, hopeful Wilmer flores gets in there kyle and you can use him. We'll see about that abanyas Meh Jeff mcneil is facing johnny kweto kweto is coming out the il maybe that situation where you could potentially turn to It's mcneil in that situation Arias is facing castillo. I love Arias not going to get there. I think listella works Again, he does go pretty deep into games relative to some other giants guys So I would say listella is at least a consideration at second base Newman don't think he's the highest upside guy against lefties 108 iso does put the ball in the air, but uh doesn't really make the hardest of contact so Not looking to get there a rise not a super high upside guy either Van meter is actually okay. Um Based on this off of He tends to be super hot or super low soured and randomly towards the top of the order at times So I remember like using him that does not mean he's like good just means that I have used him in the past But let's check it out here Van meter Oh man, there we go. Okay 157 iso 51% fly baller. That's probably high enough. So yeah, I'd say van meter is an option So you're looking for lower salary second baseman car. I would say van meter is an option. I would say Uh that listella is an option and I would say That floor is an option to be placed So floor is number one if he plays if not we'll go with tommy listella number one Savon if you had to use a team, would you rather use pit or arizona? Uh pittsburgh arizona. I would rather go Probably pittsburgh I don't know. I think I can get better get to to four guys. I'd rather use there. Let's just pull up the line Ups quick Uh chavis. I'll use haze. I'll use rentals. I'll use Yeah, so I think the three guys there. I would say van meter var show Rojas marté. Actually, let's go. Let's go diamond backs in this one diamond backs there Jerry says i'm catching on jim. I was a two-time state champion at baseball. Oh nice All regional gold glove. What position Jerry let us know a position you were very curious about the position for you there cubs dj says cubs win game one of that doubleheader Another good reminder too to make sure you follow kevin roth of rotor grinders on twitter because I didn't realize how bad the weather was for that game. He did so hopefully it helped me get off Here my marquez. We had a couple lineups with so Check him out on twitter at kevin roth wx for all of your weather needs That is all that we have here for today. Cal's giving his pasta Sauce rankings. Where's pesto in this cal? Um, I want enough. I don't do it pesto. Jerry said he played shortstop. So update from jerry All regional gold glove shortstop jerry. I'm expecting some uh some good takes and hobby buys in francisco lean door Uh tomorrow from you, uh cal says pesto is last so cal's been booted Um, I will be talking to joy to try to get joy around To do the video stuff for tomorrow as mentioned We are back here tomorrow for p.m. Eastern on the fandom youtube twitch facebook and twitter pages swing by then Check us out and ask away with any questions. You may have if you have any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s big. Thank you I guess to calvin be involved despite his terrible pasta sauce rankings for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always. We'll see joy tomorrow instead if I get my my way in this But we'll talk to you all once again tomorrow. This has been the fan dual live q&a