 And welcome back to another Talk Story with John Whitehead. Our special guest this afternoon is Colin Moore. He is the director of the Public Policy Center at the University of Hawaii, which makes him, by the way, one of the most knowledgeable people that may know something about the politics in Hawaii. Well, I don't know about that compared to you, but I'm serious because people like myself just sort of go along like amateurs. There you are. You actually get data and look at it, look at trends and everything. So I thought it would be fun if we kind of had fun this afternoon and talked about politics in Hawaii. And actually the idea for this show occurred to me when I saw you on the panel that at the recently held super debate. That's right. Yeah. You had to sort of tie all of these things together, and I said, no, we ought to have them on the show. Well, I'm happy to be here. So first of all, tell me what you do as director of the Public Policy Center at the University of Hawaii. What's the focus? Just so people will know. Sure, sure. So I mean, we're expanding, but we've always been real involved in energy policy, designing the implementation of various social service programs, especially for children. We're recently involved in some transit-oriented development projects, and we're starting to serve a research center. So I hope that really will be a way to get independent, non-biased, survey research data about voters and citizens of the state. And with all that data, you need to work with policy makers. That's right. So you have a real interest in what happens in Hawaii with the elected officials and the like. Absolutely. Okay. It's really important. So tell me about the debate. Did you like the style of the super debate? I mean, having three different offices up for debate. Yeah, it was—I mean, it allowed them to have it at this beautiful location, right, in Kamehameha schools. I think that it might have been a little exhausting for viewers. That was my concern. I mean, you set something like that up. You have to do them all in a row, because you can't do it three times. But I think really, when you're talking about a three-hour debate, you risk getting only the most interested people watching, and everyone else starts to tune out. There hasn't been any feedback on that, or whether more people, less people watch the format? I'm sure the TV station has some data. I don't know. I mean, maybe people tuned in for different things at different times. Oh, maybe somebody watched the—okay. But that's the danger. But go ahead. Well, I was going to say, you also got to put up with the weather. Yeah. And it started raining pretty hard there. Yeah. I actually felt sorry for a candidate for Congress, man, what do you say, Congressperson? Congressmember. Yeah. Hanabusa, because she got caught out in the rain. Really got rained on. I don't think it was obvious to people watching at home, but it was raining pretty hard by the end. Right. And I didn't think that that was a good thing. Yeah. I mean, the interesting thing about the way those debates are set up, and then you've certainly participated in stuff like this, is that—I mean, it was really this kind of open style. Right? I mean, there was—Maheolani did ask questions, but it wasn't the traditional studio podium style. No. At least in the LG's debate, for example, you had to be pretty assertive and aggressive without looking like a jerk, and that's sort of a hard balance to pull off. Well, one of the things—one of the things is a very difficult debate. I mean, running—I was the candidate for Congress. And so when you're running for that office, you're answering questions about what am I going to do with the autonomy, how are you going to fix this, and what you're going to—and yeah, the only constitutional duty you have is to be ready to take over when the other guy dies. Right. You know? And so you can't really say, well, I'm here because I think maybe his time might be up when I'm in office. Exactly. So you—I felt sorry, actually, in some respects for the candidates, but on the other hand, I thought Maheolani did a good job because she really kept everything moving and focused and the like. I think she did a great job. I mean, it's tough to—it's tough to balance that, and I mean, everyone wants to speak and to keep them moving along with the questions. So I was really impressed, but you're right about that with the candidates. I mean, there's—you know, they're all going to say, well, these are my projects I'm going to work on, but it all depends on their relationship with the governor. I mean, yeah, you can't, you know, which is—okay. So why do you think the carpenters are spending so much money for Josh Green? I've been wanting to ask somebody that, you know? This is a great question. $400,000, I was told. Yeah. It's a ton. And then what are they—you know, so part of it, I think, is that they're trying to punish Jill Takuta, I think. Oh, yeah? I mean, that's partly my take on this, isn't it? Because of what she's done in the—but punishing Jill when you've got that many people running. Yeah. I mean, maybe they—I don't—actually, I'll be honest, I don't fully understand. I mean, I've always thought that they were—you know, it's less that they were for Green, although I think they are, but that they're against other people. Well, they put out—they really put out for it. Yeah. And so it seems to have made a difference, because I would have assumed, just by watching that debate, that Cavalio was pretty strong candidate. He was pretty strong. You know, it's interesting about Cavalio, because he—I think the polling has pretty showed him pretty consistently in second, maybe third place, but always doing well. Well, yeah. And, you know, he's the only one with executive experience. You know, he came out. He was the first guy out there on the debate, and I thought he was really going to have a strong performance. It wasn't quite— Not quite. I don't think it's quite there. Made what he did. His campaign is actually—I mean, his slogan is pretty good. Think big, right? It's funny. It's sort of endearing. He's a big former football player. But the problem with Cavalio is he hasn't had any money. He can't really get his message out, so he can't increase his support. Yeah. It's tough. I ran for lieutenant governor, and there's no other office, maybe Oja, that has a harder time raising money than running for lieutenant governor. Because they don't have any independent power, right? No. Yeah. But I thought that Coco did pretty well. I agree. I think Kim Coco—I mean, she's an attorney. She's a strong debater. She's coming from the left, from the real progressive angle. And she's a very—I mean, she was clearly progressive. Oh, yeah. Yeah. And her politics is very clear. Absolutely. I mean, that's her whole history and her program. She supported in the past and all of her LGBT activism. So she can really capture that group, and she's articulate. I liked her response about what you're going to do as lieutenant governor. And she said, I can work with anyone, and I can work around anyone. I thought that was pretty clever. Yeah, it was clever, because, you know, that's the question. The question always is, are we going to have a divided executive? Yeah. I remember way back when a friend—I forgot, you know, the governor of California would have to rush back—Jerry Brown, he was governor of California—he used to have to rush back, because he was afraid his lieutenant governor might sign a bill, you know, so he'd be at a meeting someplace and pull back. I'm straight back. So what's your thoughts about the first congressional district? All right. So this—I mean, first, I don't think people at the debate had even really adjusted to the fact that Ed Case was in it all of a sudden. I don't think they were really prepared for that. I mean, it's a really crowded field. But the interesting thing to me about that race, when you think of how it compares nationally, is that with the exception of Coniella, who has his own set of liabilities, pretty much everyone is either a centrist or kind of a center-right Democrat. I mean, Ed Case, Donna Mercado, they're more conservative, even to some degree, Doug Chinn, you know, from some of his earlier history. So we don't—what we don't have here in Hawaii, which I know confuses a lot of people on the mainland is, you know, we don't—with the exception of Coniella, we don't have this kind of move to the left, like you've seen a lot of places on the mainland. Well, it's true. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's also—you know, it seemed to me like there was a—with the exception of Case, although even he, there was a kind of real play for the progressive both. There was a kind of, you know, the going after the Sanders activist. Yeah. And I wouldn't have thought that about Case, per se, except that some of his campaign workers were the same people who worked so hard for Sanders. And I thought for myself, this is really strange, because, you know, he's a conservative Democrat. Yeah. It's not—wouldn't be while running around with Bernie. Sure. Yeah. No, no, not at all. But you're right about that. There's kind of a sense—I mean, they're trying to play it very carefully. They're trying to play it right down the middle, you know? They want to get those progressive younger voters. They want to look like they understand their concerns and they're worried about young people. But they don't want to alienate the people who really do vote in the primary. The older voters, kind of more mainstream Democrats— Yeah. Somebody that you know will actually be voted, you know? Yeah. The HGAA crowd. I mean, they're not the Sanders folks. So how successful were they? Well, it was interesting to watch Kaniyala go after Beth Fukumoto. It was. I mean, you know, there's—it's not just politics with them. I think there's something personal about that. That's right. Well, what about Case and Donna? Yeah. It was like that, too. That was a little strange, too, because the—I mean, it—so Donna, I mean, they, you know, it really became this kind of strange personal fight with them. I mean, she attacked him for not showing up in Congress. Right. And I think that was a way to get at him for running against a cock and to bring it up indirectly. Yeah. And he attacked her for being a career politician, which, to me, seemed a little strange because, you know, it's not that he's from outside. Yeah. Exactly. And I say, though, my opinion is that he—he at least began his race very well planned. Yeah. Very strategic. He came in at the right time for somebody coming in, you know, late, and it was timed in a way, and he—they lost no momentum. No. I mean, there was no pause between the announcement and the active campaigning. In fact, I saw him that night, and I said, you know, Ed, you're doing a—you're running a great campaign, you know? He performed really well at the debate, too. Yes, he did. I mean, he looked—he looked like he could step into the role right away. I think that's what people wanted to see. Well, that was his—so, and Donna, I thought, held her own with her particular base, you know? So, we're looking at an interesting pairing, you know? People sort of selected who they thought their competition was. And what do you think about Ernie? Well, so, I thought—I thought that actually he was one of the most entertaining people up there. Oh, it was great. I thought, yeah. He made some jokes. He cracked, you know? He made some jokes with the moderators. I mean, he really endeared himself. I don't know how much that's going to help him win votes. No, I don't know. But it was good to have somebody, you know? You know, and it's such a crowded race up there. It's not always such a bad strategy to just get yourself some attention. Maybe people say, oh, I'm going to check this guy out, learn a little more about him. I mean, he was memorable, at least, which is, you know, one thing—sometimes he won the second one. Oh, yeah. That bet will work good for you, you know? Well, you know, and I know that he has ambitions. So even if he doesn't win this, this may or may not help him. I don't know, but— He'll get his name out there more. I mean, he's had a—for someone who's been in the public spotlight, as much as he has, I've been surprised at how tough of a time he's had breaking into this race. I think that's the problem with being a chairman of the City Council. Yeah. You know, you're always going to have to be in a position where there are equal number of people who don't like what you've done. That's right. You get a lot of negative attention. You know? Yeah. But any prognosis? Well, look, we haven't seen a poll, although there's one that will come out tomorrow from the Star Advertiser, win cases in the race. And so I think the question is, who is really taking votes from? Is it from Donna Mercado-Kann? Well, we'll come back and you can tell us who we are. All right. All right, we're going to take a short break right now, and we'll be right back. And by the way, folks, we got the big stuff coming up, the governor's race, and of course, our president and his conduct in Europe. When it comes to managing your pain, you have a choice. Don't mask your pain with opioids. Choose to treat it with the help of a physical therapist. Physical therapists treat pain through movement and exercise. No warning labels required. And you get to actively participate in your care. Choose to improve your health without the risks of opioids. Choose physical therapy. Welcome back to Talk Story with John Wahee and our guest, Colin Moore. And if you want to ask my guest a question or myself, you can all call us on our hotline, which is 808-374-2014. 808-374-2014. Okay, we were just making some predictions. But before you get through the prediction, I'm going to ask you an academic question, which is what percentage of the vote do you think one of these candidates would have to get in order to win? To win? Because it's a plurality election. So they just have to get the most, of course. But I think the winner of CD1 and LG is probably going to be in the low 30s. Low 30s? Yeah. You think they need to get that much? They don't need to get that much. That's just what I think they're going to get. You think the winner will get? Yeah. I think people will start more and more consolidating around a single candidate. So I think that will push them up a little bit more. So I guess that's all to say. I don't think whoever wins, it'll be a squeaker. I think it's probably going to be a pretty solid victory in the low 30s. Okay. So what's your prognosis? All right. Oh, well, before we get to that, Doug Chin. Doug Chin, all right. How did he do? So Doug Chin did okay at the debate. I mean, the thing about Doug Chin that a lot of people may not know is he's actually never run for anything before. This is his first campaign. And I think you can see a little bit of the inexperience. I think he made a real mistake in the race. They all had a chance to ask another candidate a question, as you probably remember. Right. And he asked sort of this, you know, kumbaya question. I mean, can we all agree to support the winner of the race? I thought that was a real mistake. I think, you know, in this particular race, you've got to look like you're tough. That does mean being a little confrontational. Especially because the Democrats got to go to Washington and face Trump. And he has a good track record there, but I don't think he really capitalized on it. I mean, he needed to really come out strong when he, you know, was in the news all of the time because of Trump v. Hawaii. And I think he lost some momentum. And then when Case got in, I think, you know, well, we'll see, but I think Case is going to take some votes from him. Okay. Winner? All right. So, you know, for CD1, I'm going to say Ed Case. And the reason is, look, he just has so much name recognition. If this weren't such a crowded field, that might be more difficult. Right. And I think it is because he doesn't have to get that, you know, a huge percentage of the vote. I think people are really going to just go for somebody they know. You know, somebody they sort of trust, someone who looks like he can start working on day one. I think that's probably the answer. I mean, people say we need a fresh voice, but given who pretends to vote in primary elections, you know, it's an older, slightly more conservative group, I think it's going to be Ed Case. And what about Donna? You know, I think that Donna's performed strongly. The thing about her is that she has, she's always struggled with kind of her unfavorability, right? She has some core supporters, but there's a lot of people who don't like her. You know, because, you know, she has this track record of being this hard charging legislator, the person who drags bureaucrats in front of her. But, you know, you create some enemies there too. And I think it's, I think she kind of has a ceiling on her support that's going to be tough to get above. So, let's go to the biggie. All right. There's a governor's race. There's a governor's race. We haven't talked about this yet. We'll begin the same way. Let's talk about the debate. All right. So, I thought David Igay did well at this debate. I mean, there are a couple of rough moments, like when he shuffled through his index cards, looking for a question. Yeah, looking for a question. That wasn't great. But, you know, the thing about David Igay is he's really performed, I mean, he's really improved a lot over time. I mean, he comes across knowledgeable. And so, you know, and frankly, you know, standards tend to be a little low because I know he's not a strong public speaker. And so, he just has to do okay to be thought of as doing well. And I thought he was pretty solid at that debate. Well, there's an advantage that an incumbent governor especially has. That's right. And that is that they know what's going on. Yeah. I mean, they're working with it every day. It's their job. Yeah, they're really, they understand all the state-level issues. And plus, look, there's a lot of, the fundamentals point in his direction. Generally, we have a strong economy, low unemployment. I mean, things like that should help him. So, now, when you look at today, there was a poll. Yeah. That recently just came out. And so, over time, it looked like he was way behind. Oh, yeah. And then it looked like he was a little behind. Now, all of a sudden, it looks like he's ahead. So, I'm not going to throw you the curve. I'm going to throw you a curve. All right. A fastball. And that is that, do you think the advertiser polls are... Accurate. Accurate? Well, look, I don't have any reason to think that their, I mean, their poll is wrong. I mean, in the kind of a fundamental way. But the other thing to think about is, they have the same company who did their polling back in March. I mean, using the same statistical models to generate their assumptions and get the results. And that's, it's the change, right? And even in their own poll, doing it the same way. Even if they do it the same way, there's some validity to change. Yeah. Because you can look at the change, and there's a 24-point change. That is remarkable. Yeah. That is an incredible comeback. Now, that's not to say he's got it all locked up, because nobody does. Nobody does. And I'm sure we're going to see the Hanabusa campaign hit back pretty hard. And as you know, she has the support of the same Carpenter Super PAC that's been helping Josh Green. Well, you know, it's sort of interesting because they have been very positive, actually, with whatever ads they have run thus far, mostly with Josh Green. Yeah. But, and the Hanabusa campaign started negative ads. Yeah. You know, probably for Washington DC, this may not be considered negative. But for Hawaii, it's pretty good. But for Hawaii, it's pretty, you know, it's like noticeable. Yeah. And you know, the usual strategy is let your surrogates do that sort of thing. But the campaign itself is coming out front and center. You know, I don't know what the strategy might be. Do you have any thoughts? Well, it's, I mean, so first we have to remember, right? It's, you know, they have to play a careful game here because it's illegal for them to coordinate. They can't actually talk to each other. Right. So they're probably trying to guess what the other side is doing. My guess is that you're right. My guess is we're going to see the Hanabusa campaign emphasize her virtues. They're going to talk a lot about leadership and probably ignore you. And they're going to let the Carpenter's do. That's the normal. Yeah. Do the real dirty business. But you're right. I saw some Hanabusa campaigns, funded ads that were talking about the false missile alert. And I was surprised about that. You know, it's sort of, sort of not the usual mode. I had heard, and this is not, this didn't come from the Carpenter's, but it came from the other union that there was a sort of an informal pack that they weren't going to get negative this time. Really? No matter which side of the fence they were on. Only because they didn't want to offend whoever wins, whoever won. And whereas, and so I asked the particular union about, well, what did that have to do, you know, like same situation existed when the Governor's, I mean Mayor's race was and being held and Ben Caetano was running. And they said, well, that was different. That was life with that. I mean, for the project. Oh, for the project, I see. But for this thing. So I don't know. It's just sort of, this whole election just doesn't seem to fit any kind of normal progression. No. And for Ige to make this, I mean, you know, there's plenty of Governors who've come back in this way. But I mean, even still it's pretty remarkable. I think, I mean, I think part of it is, is that he's sort of been given a gift because the Hanabusa campaign hasn't been very strong. I mean, you know, you have to give people a reason to vote for you. Right. And we're not talking about ideological differences. We're not really talking about major policy differences. I mean, maybe HGA thinks they can get a better deal from Hanabusa, but that's small stuff. But really, HGA has now committed itself to arbitration. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. So what do you, you know, what do you need any, any more? Neither one of them before. Exactly. Exactly. I thought they might stay out of the thing altogether. Right. But they didn't. So it, you're right. It's strange. And then now, well, what do you think of today's poll about who trusts who more? So this, I mean, this was bad news for Hanabusa, right? Because the, you know, I think, the thing about HGA is that people like him, people think he's trustworthy. The question is, is he up for the job? But in this poll, you know, we expected Hanabusa at least to do pretty well in leadership. That's what our whole campaign is about. And she didn't. And she didn't. So that, I mean, if I was the campaign, I'd be really concerned because if that's your message, it's clearly not getting across to voters. Well, that's why I asked my first question, which is, you know, how valid are the advertiser polls? I mean, in my particular case, they had me losing by 20 points, you know, and I ended up getting elected much to my surprise. Well, we're glad you got elected. Now, considering the poll. Yeah. You know, and so these are such interesting phenomena. I was also interested in the perceptions held by Republicans in Hawaii. Yeah. I can't believe it. I mean, here, this is even, at least it used to be, even Republicans in Hawaii were pretty progressive. Yeah. I mean, you know, Pat Psyche, former congresswoman, she was, I mean, you couldn't find a person more pro-Hawaii. And, oh, if you thought Danny Noy was after a few, you know, what do you call those things? Park Barrow. Right. I mean, you ought to see Pat, you know, because she knew that this went to help her people. And yet, all of a sudden, Donald Trump... Tremendous support for him. Yeah. It's like 90% of the Republicans in Hawaii thinks that he's doing a good job and you've got to ask yourself, who are these Republicans? Yeah. And not the few Republican, the Republican friends I have. You know, there's a bunch of interesting studies that have come out recently that suggest that, you know, we always say all politics is local, right? Yeah. It's that really politics is becoming more and more national. That sense, that polarization is just washing everything out. Well, that's, you know, that's sort of, that's really interesting. I think I saw the same article. And it basically, the premise was that the whole country's getting divided. It's also kind of age. Right. The age of the young people seem to hang on to more national politics than local. Yeah. And the older people, because, I mean, one of the indicators of that is the idea that, well, like the race in New York. Right. In Queens. In Queens, right? The Democrats are supposed to be pulling together so we can win races. Right. And yet we're putting people in office that are so far to the left that we are actually going to end up having something that looks like a right-left race. Exactly. And that's also, well, the Democratic Party in California didn't... Support Feinstein. Feinstein. No, it's remarkable. I mean, how do you deal with these? But maybe you have some insights on this. My question is we haven't seen that happen here. I mean, this is still a pretty centrist Democratic Party. I mean, you have candidates like Caniella, but for the most part, you don't really see that like you do in California. For the most part, but it may be the reason why the Republican Party in Hawaii, maybe they went too far national, too quick, you know? Which brings us to our favorite person, Donald Trump. I got to get this question. Was it treason or was it not, in your opinion, when he stands next to Putin and blames our sides with the KGB instead of the CIA? You know, it's pretty close. I mean, this is an extraordinary moment in American history. I can't imagine any other presidents standing up there next to the president of Russia and making excuses for him and blaming the FBI, blaming the CIA. And blaming the country. Saying it's our fault that we're not friends with Russia. And I think back, and I was thinking, it wasn't that long ago when Russians were persecuting anybody who was at all religious. It didn't matter what your religion was. And at the same time, blaming our core European allies, the British, the Germans, everybody else. And I think that's the thing, even if you don't, no matter what you think about Donald Trump, the really concerning thing is he's doing tremendous and sometimes irreversible damage to this post-war American order. All of these international institutions that Americans built, he's destroying. Yeah, and, you know, bringing that home and to see people say, you know, today, I asked a number of people what they thought about Donald Trump's behavior. And there was like, oh, well, you know, more of the saying, blah, blah, blah. And I said, well, you know, he did this in Europe. They say, yeah, but I kind of like the idea that he's making them pay. Yeah. And I thought to myself, this is so not what I was ever thought about America, you know? I agree. But you know, that's the thing that I think for a lot of people who watch politics that's so extraordinary is his support is still pretty strong. People, you know, a lot of people, including me, find some of his actions offensive, but it doesn't seem to hurt him that much. I mean, he continues to do well, and that's why the Republicans don't go after it. How much of it is just the white noise? You know, there's so much of it that you just, you know, you just keep hoping that something will exactly. Take it away. And given our, you know, incredible media environment right now, I mean, so much information, he can still manage everything. I mean, his tweets, you know, that's what everyone's talking about. Well, I have a test for leadership, for democratic leadership. Maybe all of our candidates who are at the super debate will take it up. And that's, I think it's time for local, local leaders to stand up in their states and say, we are not going to put up with this kind of nonsense. At least not in Hawaii. Yeah. And not elsewhere. And the model for doing that kind of activism would actually be the Paris Accords, you know, for the environment, where the state says, I don't care, Donald, you do what you like, but we're going to do something else. And I think there's been a little of that blue state federalism. I hope we'll see more. I mean, Hawaii certainly has played its part in that. And I think that we ought to encourage it. Yeah. Anyway, thank you very, very much for joining me. My pleasure. I've had some fun and I look forward to... Are you going to do any more commentary? Yeah, I think so. I'm certainly on election night. Oh, terrific. Maybe you'll be there too. Ah, I don't know. But anyway, I look forward to hearing. All right. Thank you, everybody. Join us again.