 The following is a presentation of TFNN the TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour every training day live at 10 a.m. Eastern call now toll-free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 the TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour now Tommy and Tommy O'Brien welcome folks appreciate your growl and a problem with us out here we have the Dow industry is up 421 Nasdaq up 127 S&Ps up 38 pretty well right what's going on out there man we got a lot of green on that chart go go contract getting slammed down $27 that being said though guess what you're going at the 540,000 contract so it's gonna be pretty cool watching the golden silver market because they just keep refusing a lower price silver's down 53 cents $19 2 cents light sweet crude up 46 cents $56 72 cents a barrel and notes and bonds they get in slam to you get the 10 year down one point plus two ticks 131 06 30 year off two full points plus 11 ticks at 163 19 King dollar King doll down 203 ticks trade in 98 190 add some volume yes they will see we get any follow-through the number now you're gonna watching King dollars gonna be 97 770 right now you're 98 185 the 98 777 he will get you back in the low range the euros at 110 the pound is at 123 they're both moving higher and you get the yen at 107.08 let's go over to our man Mr. Kevin Hicks at TD Ameritrade think of swim as you do every Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday and don't forget folks every trading day right here 11 to 12 Eastern standard time you want to understand the option market option strategies futures great program 11 to 12 Eastern standard time if you haven't test-driven yet the think of swim platform really easy to do as your FTF and then just hit that banner bring it up they'll either trade with paper money you can follow Kevin and his team every trading day Kevin Hicks what's going on good morning Tom another day another couple percent on the upside you know you know what's really catching my eye this morning guys and obviously the news out of China is something that this market can embrace that that's for sure and you've got good ADP data this morning that's another precursor for the non-farm payrolls but the risk-off assets are getting hit hard today on the downside bond 30 bond out two points now more than two points I mean these are pretty big moves in the risk-off assets so it's telling me that you know we talked about this yesterday on the TD Ameritrade Network we you know we said people are getting for you know you know the downside in this market but how many of them are prepared for the upside right how many are prepared for this getting better not worse that's deviant no doubt but it's true you know yesterday when I when we were bringing you on Kevin I'm saying myself hey you better understand defined risk you know the S&P you know you're either up 20 or down 20 well guess what we're up 40 tomorrow we just got a number out of ADP that maybe makes you think a little more bullish on those numbers I mean the ADP number they were looking I remember these are private payrolls see the estimate they came in 195 no it's a big number stuff right right there so you gotta think that because of that the estimates for tomorrow's number will start inching a little higher and so I did that and this market is so driven by any news good or bad on China and trade discussions that I think that's why you're seeing the actual scheduling of a meeting is pretty bullish for this market you show you how little it needs in terms of good news particularly because they're talking about the meeting in October it's September right now nothing happens in 30 days man August was slow slow September we'll be fine yeah so it's really intriguing and you know what's gonna get intriguing here you know we September 18th you know the Fed it's about 100% that they're gonna get down a quarter point but I think you're gonna start hearing that okay well what's going on we know that the job has just gone up the market is near highs you know so what else is happening out here that the Fed has to keep going down exactly what in this scenario is giving the Fed and the in just the sentiment and the world as we know it calling for it but is that enough is that what the Fed should be listening to their mandate remember is full employment right inflation right well you've got 3.7 unemployment and you've got you know an inflation number that you can make an argument about right that inflation is too low and you know this economy needs some way to get inflation higher but I'm not sure the lower interest rate does it it hasn't so far no it has it's tricky and that's a great point because it not only hasn't done it here it hasn't done it across the world right you know they get negative interest rates and in Japan they have forever and they still have no inflation I mean I think about that time what you just said negative interest rates are bringing any inflation right so how could lowering our interest rates bring inflation when you see the extreme of it in the eurozone and they're not getting inflation out of it so it's an interesting discussion to have for sure is what we're doing fixing getting us to where we want to be it's a it's a discussion never this has never happened we've never been in a scenario the the action going on in these markets right now with bonds and interest rates is unprecedented yeah in terms of the overall world look on interest rates it's something they'll write books about I think down down the road definitely yeah I can't I can't wait that we can get the first basically cognizant you know theory of how you get into it and how you get out of it I mean this is a long time and you know it's not like if you look at Japan you know I was talking 15 16 years that's what I was like how much patience you got man you got like inside the financial business a lot of smart people and it's like man you know no one can get a handle on okay what does that really mean and and how do you get out of it yes you know I mean because we know being trade is momentum is a huge deal man I mean huge it's like you know I heard I had an analyst yesterday I thought I was hearing things man like saying that well yeah you can still buy bonds because they're going up and I'm saying they had been talking about a portfolio you know how much stocks and I myself hold it man you know you gotta explain to these people that man if you're buying a bond at 163 and you know the rates go up well you're gonna be about 125 and about a heartbeat pulled up the TLT just on the thinkorswim platform real quick well yeah if you bought the TLT yesterday you done a percent and half on your capital today both just like that and you're buying lots of bonds right right and so you know buying it's a different world right I mean there's Tom and I wore younger men's clothes yeah when used to buy go to the bond market for a lot of bonds right now might be the most even though the E-minis and the S&P 500 given it to run for its money but bonds are incredibly volatile right now right how about just to finish up Kevin we get the VIX under 16 they just said in the den under the 50-day EMA I mean just remarkable because we're just going to come down hard today tally poof man right gotta love it yeah listen folks right here 45 minutes from now Kevin you have a great one safe one we look forward to the show you have a great weekend we look forward to speaking the next Tuesday thanks for having me on guys thanks Kevin stay right there folks Tommy and I come right back if you're not currently using the TAS profile scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon the TAS profile scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks ETFs commodity futures and forex headed by Steve doll TAS understands that in today's technological world the use of top flight software applications and technical 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Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future called Tiger real estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today many of our new listeners have heard about the Tigers den the Tigers den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet exchange ideas and information in a comfortable moderated atmosphere here all the tfnn shows plus see all the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts you can test drive the Tigers then absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets and how to make your money work for you details on the Tigers then on the front page of tfnn.com tfnn has launched our brand new website you can still visit us at the same tfnn.com URL but when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation whether you're watching tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions we even have new pricing in six months and yearly options check out the new tfnn.com now and experience all the upgrades tfnn.com educating investors all now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-76 folks dow dow is up 468 nasdaq's up 149 you get the s&p's up 45 percentage wise out here it's a monster you get the the nasdaq up 1.9 percent the s&p's up 1.3 the dow up 1.8 gold let's go take a look at that gold contract so gold bottom line you're going from a price point of 1561 here at 15 at 26 quite a little haircut yeah you get 370 thousand contracts so you go into 456 and 473 okay and we'll probably we'll see what we get out here I suspect we're gonna get like something like 500,000 out here today and I'm just keeping in mind so that low from August 30th 1525 60 we're within about a buck of that yeah you know what you have there folks this was pretty cool you know every time you know like the last big downdraft was on the 13th okay of August you went from 1546 to 1488 that's how gold trades that's that's the bottom line you know it does when bonds are trading like this right when when you get 10 year I almost had to do a double-take where I can't remember the last time especially in this direction because we've gotten such a move in August where we actually had lower price in bonds at higher yield to the tune of the 10 year moving more than a full point trading down in the 30 and moving two points so with that in mind you know yeah you're gonna get some action on gold for sure and so when we look at these bonds okay that's 10 year we are 1.1 million contracts that's not a lot contract volume on the way down you know these this is the we're already rolled to the Z contract okay if I put the you contract up what you're gonna see is that this is going higher with 2.2 million so that thing's got to get up for another million which you can so it's 10 30 in the morning could it be a lot for you know 30 right 10 20 in the morning it could be right yeah so when you get the Dow up approaching 500 and you almost have everything at session highs or lows you do as in the the markets are at highs the bonds are at lows golds at lows so you might see that extended accelerate it's possible and this will be cool to watch the TLT the reason that this is when you're doing the bonds folks the TLT should bring up whether you're trading it or not if you really want to understand a little bit more about the bonds and the reason being is that we always have volume on the TLT without going from contract to contract so what I like there is that you're coming into 16.19 million okay August 23rd right now we've done 4 million so what should happen is this you absolutely should have more volume okay it's only 45 minutes into the market right we had 6.5 hours you know it's already done a quarter of the percentage now if it doesn't and you don't get into this 143 43 number that says quite a bit you know so and that's what the note and bond market has continued to do and I'm talking about for a couple years as and that's what the gold market has done for the last six months every single time that you think you're actually getting hit hard your volatile yes fast yes on the way down the volume is contracted pretty dramatically so we'll see where that baby shakes out natural gas right yeah we do so it's Thursday we got our natural gas inventory numbers at 1030 and again we say it sometimes are pretty interesting anytime you get a Monday holiday you natural natural gas natural gas inventories for some reason stay the same they're always Thursdays at 1030 and maybe there's just enough days as in they come back Tuesday they have Wednesday they're still able to put out the report on Thursday as expected but the oil numbers usually Wednesday and there's probably not enough time where you just have Tuesday in the week there's still assembling that report pulling everything together so yeah we get oil at 11 a.m. today we have natural gas at 1030 and let's jump over see where we're treating that man so we'll jump it up man look at gold it's not stopping 1519 as we jump over boy oh boy things are extending pretty quickly okay so let's get in here natural gas look at oil rocking and rolling there's too much I can't stay focused on natural gas right now man look at this 243 so some volatility on this I mean just back this up from yesterday man you go from 234 wow 246 that is a monster man and just keep backing it up we were just at 231 to 246 so again we're looking at the October contract we're sitting at about 243 now jumping around a little bit briefly first let me get in here and pull up the 11 a.m. quickly close that jump in here for the 11's we're gonna have 245 with a price point okay so we're a little bit away from that but not bad we're about a penny and a half within about where these two contracts now what's going on here is this market moving too quickly why do we have no action here all right well yeah let's see so maybe it's just that bid offer that's the 11 a.m. I'm just checking my math why don't we I'm gonna pull up the new ones because I'm not sure why exactly that would be completely out of the money because there's definitely a chance that that there should be a bid offer and there's a chance it climbs above 245 in the next 35 minutes with the movement it's getting but nonetheless jump to the new ones so the new ones have 240 with a price point yes either this is it's not a bit here too I'm not sure what's going on there and this is where folks you know if this ever happens and you don't understand what's going on yeah you don't gotta make that trade right no don't yeah exactly yeah it better make sense because perfect example yesterday we were looking at things we couldn't quite figure it out and we had missed that crude oil right crude oil wasn't coming out so make sure you got all your ducks in a row and that everything makes sense before you put money at risk because you don't have to make that trade and let's just jump around so we may not be able to pull it off with the 230s same thing yeah and 250 may not have an active bid as in that's seven pennies away but nonetheless but normally if they have them up there is trading that they have a bit I agree and so finally we get in where there is a bid offer size a market that's actually being made and I'm not sure maybe Nate X is struggling to keep market makers in natural gas as it jumps around too much I'm just throwing out possible ideas right you got to keep around what's going on so let's let's take a quick peek we're sitting at 243 and now this is where man not a bad trade if you may be bullish directionally biased you got 243 the contracts trading that I call it you know 242 9 this contract has a floor at 240 a ceiling at 290 I would say that by 230 that's a 50 you know as far as you could ever imagine the contract reaching so most unlimited profit potential for all intensive purposes and for that limited downside which is you're captured a three penny loss you're going to be paying almost a penny in premium here okay so the contract trade if 242 9 you're getting it 243 9 not bad yeah you're risking $39 which represents 3.9 pennies but not bad when we just pulled it up man and that goes to 230s you're talking about four hours of exposure we're going to get some inventory numbers in a half hour not bad at all yeah so we'll see crazy market that is crazy so natural gas market can you just see what what the contract of the trade yeah believe it was October October October okay and G then G Z is December yeah maybe back it up you're not going to want December I don't think right and unfortunately go September here right maybe just go generic yeah let's see where that brings us very good sitting at 243 3 so that's where we're at yep look at that so it's at the top of the range interesting what is the top there 249 call 249 okay man look at that run yeah everything had a big month in August man yeah that's a that's a half a point a half a point in that contract folks is $5,000 and it's 20% you went from 2 bucks to 240 right 20% in a month wow it is let's see what is the contract value wow big money right there folks Tommy and I come right back iPhone numbers 8779 to 7668 dollars up for 27 Mazdax of 146 S&P's up 41 come right back hi folks Tom O'Brien here if you like to get my daily newsletter market insights then now is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial every morning by 9 30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets currencies and commodities to keep investors up-to-date on the days trading action included in market insights a specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks ETFs and even options which stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter if you'd like to try my newsletter risk-free for 30 days then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under trading newsletters I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every morning and give my subscribers the most important information they need to know for the day ahead I even issue afternoon updates from my subscribers whenever warranted with important market action I'm always 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offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're gonna love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com Welcome back folks natural gas we get some natural gas here we got more than the market thought man rising stockpiles 84 billion cubic feet for the week the estimate had been looking for a rise of 77 we got more supply that should hint to lower prices we'll jump back to the chart and just like that man what we say right if you're gonna go bullish at least you would have been capped out on your losses at 240 where we're dropped to in about three seconds they were bullish and bearish but yeah more natural gas and you know you had that natural gas you look at it it was right at the top of the range yes by a penny yeah definitely you know pretty pretty crazy we'll pull it up but that's natural gas we get the crude oil inventories at 11 we'll take a look at that a little bit later in the hour so we were just looking at right how about we work oh this is intense folks soft bank hey anyone if you're going public go talk to soft bank they're handing out easy money man before you go public so we work is said to a target IPO valuation well below their recent rounds so the company is looking for it and I love how wide this is like 20 to 30 billion dollar valuation right well if you're worth 20 that's great if you're worth 30 you just increase the value of your market cap by 50% I know by doing nothing you know like that is quite a good rap man yeah and yeah right you better and the last round so 47 billion so when Tommy's saying the last round here this is what you really wrap your head around before they went public are they're gonna go public they didn't around soft bank invested that the company would is worth 47 billion folks okay so if you ever come in even whether it's 20 or 30 or 25 half of that yeah they start out any and the downside doesn't usually happen man because that's venture capital money that's usually the smart money getting in beforehand you know venture capitalists don't exist because they invest at a valuation above what the company then goes public web in the future many times you know they're getting access to companies that are ripe for the picking not that are pillaging investors money before they go public that's usually what happens when they actually hit the broad market right the likes of lift the likes of Uber okay so pretty remarkable and this is gonna come out quick they saying here that they're gonna start their roadshow next week so if the roadshow starts next week this will IPO before the end of September and they're and they're looking to raise about three point five billion dollars and they plan to take out a two billion dollar letter of credit facility and a four billion dollar delayed drawdown term loan from several banks concurrent with the IPO and yeah so this is where their IPO plans filed last month were greeted by sometimes blistering criticism for the way it obscured key details about the economics of the business the startup headed by Adam Newman leases and owns office spaces and office building which it decorates rents it out to companies from tiny startups to large corporations it's raised more than 12 billion dollars since its founding nine years ago and has never turned a profit and I believe they're far from turning a profit right and there's a there's a company in London folks that does the same thing and they and Bloomberg the interview the CEO right yes and this company is just trade like as a real estate company okay this company we work on the other one no the other one okay see we work is the same they were technology company and the valuation if it comes down to the same valuation they do the same thing I mean this thing to get smoked sure beyond belief right that's where you yeah for sure yeah so pretty remarkable we'll see how it shakes out man and then these guys also play the inside game you know so inside of here what you also have is that that this Adam Newman that's it so when the stories have come out is that you have executives buying buildings through other companies right not having anything to do with we work right and then having we work pay them to lease those companies all legal as far as I understood yeah but as an investor that's where things get very worse I mean talking about conflicts of interest you're talking about biases you're talking about just lining your own pocket at the expense of investors and if you get a slowdown so picture if you get a slowdown folks you get a slowdown it's going to be like the CEO owns the buildings the company has to pay the rent then the real question is going to be you know let's say let's say at some point when I get a slowdown yes bottom line you know get these companies so they get less rent from the people have written place then now they don't have the rent to pay all the leases what what what do you do yeah what you know that there's the conflict that's extraordinary sure you know yeah pretty wild man time and I'm surprised that for a company of this mammoth size right and so they're building such a technology company why would if you're raising 12 billion dollars why would you be paying to Lisa building to then lease it out again why wouldn't you be the person these rates buying the mortgage buying the building guess why guess why because the CEO wants to I mean that's like a staggering statement right that's the quote that's that's all you really have to know yeah you got 12 billion dollars you know I mean why are you the one right you know because the bottom line is to somebody is not the whole business you're the one collecting it is lease payments so if you really have vertically integrated you should own the building I just and it's much safer just like you're talking about you know versus versus you actually own nothing right and you're just playing a middle game between the pay the cost you paid at least right versus the cost you can lease out to you know my business is right yeah pretty wild man it is man let's go look at the oil market so we know at 11 o'clock oil is gonna be coming up so this baby is getting to the top of its range yeah it's right here so this is gonna be cool watching the shake out you know 5750 really is it 5750 740 maybe just where yeah two trading days practically going crude now what you have here this is this is a monster contraction and volume so that's telling me that we're gonna go south on that oil market but we'll see pretty remarkable so hi there you're looking at August 13 5740 man we could be there in a heartbeat the way we've just moved in pretty remarkable that you go back to just 52 84 day we're almost $5 we're more than $4 above that price on the low in from Tuesday to Thursday starting off September trading with a bang man and in the oil market you're talking about millions of barrels a day think about that right I mean it must be just amazing the amount of trading because you better be some kind of a trader if you will market yes you know I mean the cool thing is you know fundamentally what oil cost you get out of the ground yes so then it's just okay what are you happy with right but it's pretty dramatic you wake up in the morning it's like okay yeah you either sold it or bought it two or three dollars difference no big number big numbers let's go take a look at the end the x100 and see the strength versus the weakness inside here so Nvidia up 6% you got micron up 6% Xilinx is up 4.9 nxpi at 4.7 all chips yeah on the side you got Pepsi is down 1.3% XL down 1.2 Netflix 1.2 Netflix after go ahead Starbucks as well so I heard a report yesterday not a fan yeah they are beginning to experiment with the idea of weekly releases okay no more binge no more no more they drop a season and you get 12 episodes to watch at the same time okay now guess what this has to do with they figured it out like I have people are gonna start signing up oh totally probably heard you watch every episode you want and you cancel and they said we got to change up business plan man we got to keep people well and yeah already started certain shows have already started that business model and they figured out that we can't just drop this because for the first time ever they're probably realizing that people are gonna begin canceling they've never had this and what are you gonna do you can do exactly what I just said right I'm gonna sign up for a month or two you're gonna watch everything you want to watch you're gonna cancel it and you're gonna come back in another month or two when they release the programs and so they're gonna begin unfortunately but guess what I don't think that's the right business plan because I'm not gonna get hooked into that the thing I actually love is the ability to binge watch yeah so they better be careful if you're home grooving it's fun they change so people view it so we'll say yeah stay right there folks Tommy I come right back if you're in the CD market and looking for secure investment the Tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30,000 to 75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1 percent a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% 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and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch tiger tv that's TFNN.com then hit watch tiger tv for the latest market information folks are down down is up 456 you get the nasdaq up 146 S&Ps are up 43 so let's go inside the dial so what do you think is anything great right inside the dial yeah look at that there actually is codex slightly yeah coke right coke thank you yeah codex out of my mouth it used to be there wait a second as well as polaroid so pepsi down and coke right we saw pepsi uh not in the dial but we did see pepsi down so i wonder what's happening with those two right so the the positive points you get 49 positive points from bowing 42 goldman 41 3 m 32 caterpillar big big numbers here yes on the downside very small numbers you're proctoring gable putting three negative points coke two three murk uh two point two and a half yeah let's go see what is happening with uh so well they that's so that's yesterday dead offering new energy drink i see a bunch of nothing right yeah all right no they're they're at highs anyway okay so i'm gonna just say yeah right if we could dig into the news afterwards yeah they're at highs too so this is everyone's drinking sugar water oh my god look at this pepsi they got a lot more than sugar water these days that's the only reason well 58 to 137 but that's 2011 but they're still yeah and it's because it's not because of um their sodas they've really expanded their their product lineup yeah so they're at uh so you get beverages is 21 billion there's the but this free to lame man yeah everyone's hooked on those things man you eat those things get your toast give me some corn chips the whole thing you can't eat one there's no doubt that's 16 billion the europe and the sub sahara is 11 billion look at that that's a big number two man i wonder how yeah so that's that's uh latin america 7 billion what's interesting here is that this is usually a product segment and they've broken down to this is what you're supposed to be geographical this is supposed to be product but somehow they've now just broken geographics into products let's do coke and see what they say yeah no i do i guess i can see that so let's see how do i do this coke oh i know i know sorry yeah and they have one product segment non-alcoholic beverages and and bottling of course but they don't break it down is all and then you got look at international man big portion of what they're doing versus even the us yeah 16 billion this is coca cola about 16 billion international not the america 11 yeah bottle investment 6.8 billion yeah and then you know that's interesting so pepsi has bigger numbers on the way up i mean coca cola has been going down for a gross revenues this is 44 billion 2015 37 this year but it looks like they're going to pop it next year at 39 and i wonder how though if they had sold off some bottling because check out that number yeah right bottling you know so if that's down 33 3 year growth that's a that's an annualized number over the last three years and that's that's like the budweiser deal that even when you sell it off they run it meaning you know budweiser distributors the the main company is telling them how to run sure and the same with their with their bottling plants okay but yet they don't have to put up the capital yes it keeps themselves nice and trim it comes off their spreadsheet which is important so you want to take a look at some oil yes let's see what we got going on 11 o'clock so oh man and checking back on natural gas we're now under that 240 price point real quick on the heels of that inventory but jumping over to crude so we're going to get the crude oil inventories we won't be on the air live program will wrap up but 11 a.m that number is going to drop man quite a run again in this crude so we're looking at the october contract we're trading above $57 now these contracts may not line up too well only because we've gotten so much more so much movement already in these con in this contract but let's just take a look right away 11 a.m. not bad we're going to have 57 25 we're within eight pennies doesn't get much closer than that of the price point so if you're bullish this is kind of out of the money right you start to get exposure at 57 25 not bad we're looking at about $8 you got to climb above 57 25 get to 57 32 oh correction this contract expires right when the numbers come out this is again I was saying why is this so cheap why is this so cheap so not there we go this is why you want to get used to whether it's you know the next get used to a demo account folks you know download the thinkorswim account I know before you start trading because that's one of those issues so let's get right to the noons because that gives you an hour after the news now not quite a great trade maybe 57 50 but let's just say you're bullish not bad you're getting in with some intrinsic value your losses are capped at 56 75 you have profit for more than a full dollar which train that right now and you can get in at 52 dollars which represents you're getting in at 57 27 your losses are capped at 56 75 you get the numbers that drop at 11 and you got an hour of exposure not a bad trade if you're bullish there because you're getting in at 57 26 you're paying 13 pennies above the market okay that's the real premium you gotta look at 13 you're buying it for 13 cents more than the active market is where you can get in on futures okay and the reason why you're paying that is because your losses are capped at 56 75 yeah now let's just jump let's say you want to go bearish right you go and bearish you could take almost an identical trade just to the bearish side you got 57 50 is your bullish okay so that gives you 45 cents pretty money pretty some similar contract six cents interesting walk me through I didn't I don't follow where you said six cents well we're trading at 57 13 right yes but you're selling it we got to go off the bid here right because you're selling it now 13 cents the same 14 cents that's where a premium right but again you got a two to one risk reward ratio where you locked in okay so not that big of a move considering you got a full hour of exposure after the numbers drop and your losses are capped in a market that is just super volatile let's say you want to give yourself let's see they get some premium in there though that's there's some decent premium for an hour of exposure in this contract I always try and look at things to say okay is that a premium I want to pay is that a fair market right and that's what you better be doing when you're trading across the board right well I say what if you flip that around on the other side how much premium would you need well geez 12 to 13 pennies of premium to give somebody a a risking one to make two type trade doesn't seem like that much for me when so often we're going to see this jump 25 35 45 cents in a heartbeat if that misses on the numbers and let's just see where the dailies line up so the first daily is going to give us exposure with either 56 I mean you could if you were bearish maybe this might be a nice one you'd have from 5750 down to 5450 pretty similar and let's just see until 230 so the last one we were able to get in about 57 right now if you want exposure till 230 you're only going to be able to sell it at 5685 so now you're paying about 25 cents a premium and you're selling it at 5685 and the market said about 5709 so that is risking 64 as opposed to the 50 but you got to keep in mind that you're now have profits potential down to 5450 and let's just see the dailies if we get a bullish potential yeah these are just away from the market you know I mean in theory you could make a trade if you're bullish this becomes a pretty close trade to to the futures and that you have lost potential for almost a full dollar okay so yeah it's it's you're capped but you're capped at more than a dollar but keeping in mind when you have that much exposure it's a lot less premium you're getting in a 5715 markets at 5707 so we're sitting at about 57 bucks those numbers come out in 10 minutes at 11 we'll see where we go Dow Dow up 440 you get the Nasdaq up 137 S&P's up 41 you get gold down 36 bucks silver's down 74 cents notes and bonds 10 here down 1 full 0.36 30 year off 2.16 ticks come right back big numbers yeah I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their 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new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning Tom publishes his weekly gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the XAU HUI GDX the dollar as well as more than 30 different mining equities as of September 3rd gold report subscribers have five active open positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 38% for each position to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up today by visiting tfn.com since 1984 Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion well originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call Basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfn.com cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two week free trial to Basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfn.com welcome back folks down down right now up for 50 nasik up 138 s and p's up 21 and uh yeah the 30 year kind of sarcastically right yeah 30 year that's the 30 year going to be down three points by the time we get off the earth yeah full points now down 30 year down two full points and 22 ticks and that of course we looked at the TLT you know TLT 20 plus year bond fund longer term yeah that's why the TLT really getting smacked today but just mammoth move man especially when we haven't seen a mammoth move pulling back for higher yields we've seen the run in august where rates got decimated higher price yeah we haven't seen i mean just looking at that chart i can't i'm pulling what i'm doing here is i'm pulling up the roll contract yes see what's happening okay so check it out the roll contract this is the contract i just pulled us back to september contract which we're not trading anymore by the way you're trading but it's like yeah so see what you're going into though you're going into 3.1 million contracts okay that's august 23rd yeah which is pretty cool um so that this is where this always gets wild in the market that yeah it's fast that's furious it's all above uh but guess what we'll see where this maybe shakes out at the end of the day uh because the note and bond and the metals they keep shaking it off man as you know the s&p shakes it off gets up get another couple days goes back down south again i mean it's it's the whole thing is wild well the numbers are where we are right now is that it yeah yeah so nasdaq still sitting 1.7 percent down up like 1.7 as well yeah and and that is the difference uh because the end the x100 as well as the nasdaq has been lagging in a big way um you know for the last couple months yeah the strength out there today definitely stay right there folks we get think of swim coming up uh next uh man mr basal chap and steve roadstay white be back this afternoon thanks thanks man don't get him folks