 Hey everybody, I know everybody's been getting their teeth kicked in lately, especially with the markets, either chopping sideways or a little bit of a depression going down. So I wanted just to bring it up all into clarity about where we're at right now and how in all honesty, it really doesn't matter in the long run because you're going to win. So yesterday, we had our usual NFA Live. We've been out of it for two weeks because of travel. I was in Korean blockchain week two weeks ago. Guy was in Singapore. So we did one yesterday and I got to tell you, it was not the most, we would say like ambitious or very positive. It was quite a very on a very somber tone about what we were talking about and the things that were happening in the crypto market. And it was pretty much a reality check because moving forward, I think we're going to see a lot more choppiness, a lot more of the markets moving downwards. I don't know how much it's going to be, it could be 3%, 10%, who knows. But it was one of those shows where we really got into the not so positive aspects of it. So today, I just want to do a little bit of a rewind and talk about what's going on and how things are looking so far. So first things first, I had a little alert. Here's this website I always talk about, lookintobitcoin.com. You can check it out. It's 99% free. There's a piece to sign up now for macro type of information if you want to go into that. But most of the Bitcoin charts are almost, I think all of them are still 100% free. And one of those I like to look at is the net unrealized profit and loss or NUPL. And what this really is, is you take the market cap and you take a look at the unrealized value or the unrealized profit, which is just when Bitcoin was actually moved for different wallets. And you kind of calculate to see where things are as far as like, are people in the money or are they out of the money and how would they react as the price goes down. And what I want to note, I want you to note about this is this big fat green area called capitulation. And if we take a look at this, this is over a continuum all the way back into 2010. And I think we have to understand, of course, is the four year cycles, which if you watch any of my videos, you know that we're going to talk about, which is it all starts with a having. And you go to an all time high, a dip and a reset. 2016, you had having all time I dip reset, 2020 having all time I dip reset. And we're really in, we're coming into the fourth term. But if we take a look at these three sections here, what I want you to notice about net in unrealized profit and loss and as far as capitulation is in the first cycle. And this was before this was actually during the having, you had a massive capitulation when people are like, this isn't going anywhere. This is nothing. But remember, I mean, Bitcoin's only around for like three years or so. So it wasn't that big of a deal. But we can see that it was massively. But moving into the second and the third cycle, we can see quite interesting enough was that we had capitulation and it went into this, this area, this green area and then peak above and then it happened again. So it happened twice. This was back in 2015 when we had the reset here. So it happened twice here. Funny enough, over in 2018, we can see it actually happened. November, 27, 2018, it went from the hope and fear down to capitulation, bounced up, everything was good back down in capitulation. So it happened twice. So it happened twice in this section in this four year cycle, twice in this four year cycle and look over here. It's the same thing. We see capitulation. It breaks below this hope and fear, pokes up a little bit and then gets crushed down as we went to the all time lows around November of 2022, around 15,000. And now it's up again. So two, two and two. Will it happen again? Well, some people think it's going to, but it would be very, be quite a little bit odd going down. And what would that price be? The price itself would be around 20,000, 21,000, somewhere around there. So right now we're looking at Bitcoin around 26,000. Could you handle a Bitcoin going to $21,000 roughly? I think it's the big question. For me, not a big deal. But if we look at it, when we take a look at things moving forward, how low could we go in all honesty? And if we take a look here at the highs and lows, the thing that I want you to notice is about the time frames. The time frames of when we went from our all time highs to our low in the cycle. The first one in 2013, we were over $1,100. And then about a year later, went from 29th of November 2013 to January 2015, roughly about a year later, we hit our low. So it took about a year. Next cycle in 2017, 15 December 2017 to 16 December 2018, that's about a year. And we hit our low. And this last one, everybody thought that when we went below 20,000 in June, because our all time high was in November 2021, it was kind of odd. Because you're looking at around seven months from this to this. And I said, I don't think that's going to be the low. I think it's going to be much lower. And then of course, here we go again. 9th of November 2021 was the high. 9th of November 2022 in the cycle so far has been it. So it's been a year, a year, and a year. I'm not for sure if that is the low, but maybe it could actually be. So I know when people are talking about, well, I could go down to 10,000 or 8,000 or something crazy. It would be a little bit odd to see the time frame, because where are we at? We're right here from the high to the low. That's roughly about a year. We're way past that already. So there have been some things that are a bit a little bit different. One of those being that the Fed has raised rates. We haven't seen that during the time for Bitcoin. We haven't seen talk of massive recession, soft or hard landing. We haven't seen the M2 money supply actually drop off. But funny enough, and we talked about this in the video yesterday, we talked about liquidity. And we take a look at the M2 money supply, money supply in America. We're going to see that if we overlay it, it looks like it's, this is, actually let me change this, this is the S&P 500. Let me go to just for Bitcoin. Oh, the total market cap, that's fine. And when you see that as an M2 money supply increases, we can see that so does the total market cap. One thing to note, and we talked about again liquidity, but if you'll notice something, which is the M2 money supply, when we hit our high back here in November, 2021, the M2 money supply was $21.3 trillion. It's quite a bit, right? And then we went up a little bit and then we started to taper off and then we decreased for the first time quite some time, since the early 2000s. But if one thing you'll notice though is the M2 money supply today has actually gone up in May, in June, and July. And the M2 money supply right now is $20.9 trillion. $20.90 through to be exact. And if we come over here to the all-time highs in November, it was 21.316. And if we go back just a couple of months before September, August, when things were doing pretty well regardless, 20.848, so it's roughly the same amount, not as the all-time highs, but when we were seeing some pretty darn highs as far as crypto and digital assets. So that leads me to the last thing before we get into to make these things easy, which is who the heck is gonna sell? Now, there's everybody out there and they can sell whenever they want to and they can do these things. But if you take a look at into the block and see who's in the money and out of the money, there's a very easy chart, it has it. It shows you exactly who was in and who was out. And right now as far as for Bitcoin accumulators, people who are investing in the Bitcoin, that the people that are in the money, it's almost 62%, out is 32%. And we can even break it down even further into what that actual price actually is. So if we go down to 22,053, which is where it could actually drop down, like we just talked about, 21, 22,000, that's where we get the most amount of people who would be out of the money as far as Bitcoin on that spectrum. Right now, we're at 26.5, somewhere around there. So we're still seeing that the people that are in the money, almost 40%, people at the money, 1.9, in almost 60% are roughly in or out. Let me see here. Yeah, 61% are actually in and out at 32%. So that's just Bitcoin. Again, I think it could actually go down a little bit lower, but I don't think it's that much. But then the next question is what about alts? Because we talk about that quite a bit. Where are my alts gonna go? I gotta tell you, there's not much room, there's not much wiggle room to really get out. I mean, Dogecoin, people are almost 60% out of the money as far as in the money. And I think a lot of people that have gotten into Dogecoin, they're probably not gonna sell too much. Maybe it drops another 20%, maybe. Could you handle that? Well, depends. How about Cardano? You know that 95% of people are out of the money? 95% of the people at or actually at the money is roughly four and in is only like 0.36%. Donecoin doesn't count 50 of those wallets, control 85%, I'm not gonna go over that one. Polygon, 94% are out of the money. In is four, roughly 5%. Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Cash, one of those. Chainlink, same thing. Got a lot of people out of the money. Avalanche, I don't know who is gonna be selling Avalanche because everybody's out of the money. Almost 100% as far as the price goes. Uniswap, I mean, you're gonna see it. Crypto.com, Quants, Arbitrum, one of my favorites. Most people are out of the money, Ave. So again, there are people that are gonna sell but the question is how low can it actually go to look at that. So that would lead me to my last point, which is this. It doesn't matter what you do, you're really gonna win. And the question then is, because on this channel we talk a lot about dollar cost averaging, but there's a better way. There's a different way if you don't wanna go through a lot of stress, it just really comes out of timing. So what I'll show you is this. We've talked about this many times. But if you take $100 and going back for the last cycle in 2018, after the all-time high in 2017 and you started to put in $100 per week into Bitcoin, also Ethereum, Cardano, Dogecoin, Solana, Polkadot, it doesn't matter, it can be $10 a week. We said this many times. You can make massive gains just for that as far as the last cycle goes. And just because something happened, the passage of the minute will repeat. But you can see that over time, just doing this $100 in the first big top-off in April, I can't really say May because that's kind of an anomaly as far as Dogecoin. You would have invested $17,000 and Dogecoin would have had $3 million. I don't know how many people who can time the very absolute top, so let's just kind of go not too crazy. Let's say you sold around April 19th, you still have $1.8 million. Link, $869,000. Again, you would have invested $17,300. And now it was $100 just into Link or $17,300 just into Cardano, $300,000. Maddox 2019, ETH 157. Bitcoin, $121,000. Still pretty good, right? And that is if you did the hardest thing, which is to invest and watch your portfolio suck all the way through this dip here in 2018 and the reset year in 2019 and get yourself all the way to the Bitcoin halving around May 11th, May 12th, 2020. Look how much you'd be down. This whole time, you're just sucking wind and you're just throwing sand in the ocean. Is that so bad? Well, I mean, if you sell right here, like I think some people might actually do over here and they might start selling. But if you did that, all your gains are gone because it's just time, time, time, time. And then of course, over here, you're looking like a genius, right? Look at all these massive gains. And then of course, August, October, November, November, you're still looking pretty good. 1.5 million Maddox so on and so forth. So let's just say you didn't wanna do that. Let's just say, you know what, I don't, if I could just get out of that, let me just invest in 2019. You still do great. Again, you'd be sucking wind this whole year and 2019, if we take a look at the cycles, 2019 is roughly the same as 2023, it's the reset years, right? So again, you're down the whole time. Actually not as bad as you would be in 2018 because you got that reset year. You're actually doing pretty good moving forward. And then of course, you get over here, now how much you get? Well, still not too bad. You invested only 12,000. And you got 17,000 and not that great. Algorand 43,000, Adam 59,000, Bitcoin 77,000, but the Alts Hue outperformed. Solana 114, Ethereum 118, Maddox 219,000, ADA 237,000, Link 269,000 and so on and so forth. And then over here, I mean, you really crushed it with Maddox at 1.7 million, Dogecoin 800,000, Solana 713. But let's just say, you know what? I don't want to do this either. I just want to wait till the halving year, which would be 2020. Again, in the halving year, you're actually doing really good in the halving year itself. Look at this, if your dollar cost averaging, see that in the green, the very first time you're doing pretty good, then things turn a little bit red and you're down. But remember, this is March 2020 when there was this thing called a pandemic. I don't know if you remember that and things are really awful, but how long were you awful for? Not too long. For a little bit of time, you were underwater, but not like 2018 and 2019, right? Now, what does that mean as far as gains? Not as good because you've been in here less time, but still you're doing pretty good. Again, you're still winning. You invested 6,800. I mean, for Bitcoin, you have 31,000. That's pretty good. Solana 114,000, 805,000, Dogecoin 650,000, 8,000 and so on and so forth. Let's say you missed it and maybe you sold in November, you're still doing great. So again, even at this point, you're doing pretty good. But what if you're like, that's great. Well, how does things look right now? Well, in 2022, it's the same thing going again, right? You're coming here, you're underwater, you're underwater, you're still underwater. And for some, most of these things, you're underwater. Except for, again, polygon. You invested 6,000, now you're at 9,000. That's in February. But today, roughly today, everything's underwater except for Bitcoin. And you're not even underwater like a little bit. You're underwater a lot of bit. Look at this. 100 bucks a week. You're down 6% on ETH, you're down 20% on LINK, you're down 24% on DOGE. Look at this awful. Near Algorand 60%, pretty bad. And probably gonna go lower if you wanna do that. So that's a very stressful situation for some. For some of you, you just don't care. You're kind of like me. You're like, God, let's throw it in there. And then, because I follow the rules, I don't invest more than I can afford to lose, treat everything like a scam, tell people otherwise, I don't leave any exchanges, I don't use leverage, I take profits along the way if I pass weekend. There's not many right now. But what if you just did this? What if you just said, and again, not financial advice. I can't tell you what to do. Not your dad. But let's just say, instead of dollar cost averaging, maybe you're one of those people who looks at your portfolio all the time, which is a recipe for disaster. What if you just did this? What if you put in $12,600? Well, Rob, I don't have $12,600. I know you don't. Well, some of you do. Where did I get this number? This number came from here. If I could, in 2018, all the way to the halving, which would be around May 11th, 2020, I think it was May 12th, you had invested $12,400. I'm just saying. And if you did that, and you came over here and said, well, I'm gonna save all this money up, I'm not gonna put it in. I'm gonna put 100 bucks a week into my savings account in my bank. If you really wanna do that, don't laugh. Just wait. And then what I'm gonna do is I'm going to put this all on around May 20th, right after the halving. I'm gonna just put, I'm gonna plunk it down, $12,600. And that could be into Bitcoin, or Ethereum, or Doge, or Aida, whatever you wanna do. Or you can split it up, but this is just for an exercise. And again, I'm not saying to do this, I'm just saying this is what would have happened. And a lot of times, at least if we take a look over the last cycles, after the halving is when things really start happening, right? Look at that, it starts to go up, a little bit up and down, maybe some 20% drop, some drops, not too bad. Halving again, and halving, I don't have it over here because I couldn't fit it in, but it was the same thing, just kind of rip up, halving, up, halving, up. And I would say people will say, well, I don't believe in the halving, it has nothing to do with it. I think it has something to do with it just a little bit, at least the narrative. But if you did that, and you just said, you know what, I don't wanna deal with the volatility, I don't wanna do anything else, I'm just gonna wait till after the halving, sure. If you do that, where would you be? We'll check this out. First of all, it's not as much red. It's looking pretty good. And you can see it over time because you put a lump sum into it. It actually doesn't have to stress as much. And then maybe if something happens in life and you need some money out, you're like, well, I'm up 63% on doge, 77% on Algorand. Bitcoin, I'm up almost 100%. Solana, I'm up 207. Link, I'm up almost 300%. Moving forward, going here. And look at this, just in the next year after the halving, which for us will be 2025, wouldn't it be nice to be up 500%, 400%, so on and so forth. Some of these gains won't be as massive, but not too bad. Look at this, if you would have just lump summed in Solana, you would have had a half a million dollars. Congratulations. Ada, 300,000, Matic, 244,000, Dot, 170,000, and so on and so forth. Now, the gains might not be as fantastic as the other ones, but there's less stress. And I think that's one of the things that might help some of you out there that don't like to dollar cost average. You're like, you know what? I don't want the potential millions. I just want to lump sum and just go away and see how that goes. Now you can try it. And this will say that, hey, things are looking actually pretty good if you wanted to lump sum. Again, this is if you put 12,600, only into, say, Doge, you'd have almost 2 million. You put 12,600, only into Matic, you'd have 865,000, Solana, 800,000, Ada, 300,000, so on and so forth. So yeah, just something to consider. Now what I'd like you to do is there's a link in the description. And the link in the description will give you access to Ben's site into the cryptiverse. And that little tool that I just showed you, you can go through it and you can put in whatever crypto that you think is gonna be the next big thing and see how I would have performed historically and go from there. So that would take care of that. And also, I know some of you might say, well, how do I know, as far as the indicators, I mean, the halving and that makes sense. You know, there's some indicators that I use that are free that you can use yourself. There's a website, Vantage's Crypto, links in the description as well. It's free, it's 100% free. And you can see that these are some of these cycle tops and cycle bottoms that I use that are free for you. PyCycleTop and UPL, again, looking at Bitcoin. Time and risk is through Ben's site, paid, but he's having a sale if you wanna give him that. MBRVZScore to your MA, Pwell Multiple and Reserve Risk. These are the things that you can look at to see like maybe this is a good time to go from there. But again, all what you wanna do, me personally, I'm not gonna do that. I'm just not. I'm going to dollar cost average and go all the way through because I know the eventual outcome. Some of these won't hit their all-time highs. It's just a fact. Some will outperform, some will massively underperform, but the rules I try to follow as best as possible, which is the ones that we have here. All gone, scams, exchange, leverage, take profits. So that'll conclude that little piece. Let me just think about that in the comment section. If you're like, now I'm not gonna do that at all. I'm just gonna DCA or I'm gonna lump some and maybe that'll be a little bit less stress. On top of that, I know there's some negativity about all the different things that are going on in the SEC and Gary Gensler and regulation, things like that, but you know, America is not the epicenter of everything even though I believe it is. South Korea. You know, South Korea holds nearly $100 billion in crypto. How do they know that? It's from their tax office. And this is just what they know about that they've been reporting in the taxes. Here's what we have. So I know like some people will say, well, ah, cause you know, America's out of it and how's it gonna do? Look, essentially 10% is in just South Korea. Here's what we got. In an annual assessment of monthly tax filings carried out from January, June this year, South Korea's National Tax Service found 1,432 retail investors and corporations hold nearly $100 billion. And it talks about, you know, how much it actually is, but it's roughly $100 billion. Press release said that authorities will use cross-border transactions data to identify anyone who avoids reporting their overseas asset holdings. It will strictly enforce penalties, including criminal charges for those found guilty of doing so. I think this is why so many people actually reported it. But I was just blown away. I'm like $100 billion. That's 10% of the total market cap for crypto. It's just in South Korea. So if we're looking for liquidity, there's a big chunk. In 2021, South Korea effectively banned foreign crypto exchanges from operating in the country. However, all the South Korean residents can still trade crypto via overseas exchanges. So if you didn't think it was gonna actually make it, I mean, just look at that. People are like, well, I can't trade here. I'll just use overseas exchanges. And how difficult would that actually be and all the hoops they have to jump through from that? So I think that's pretty positive on top of this one. And when we're taking a look at the different altcoins to look into, just take a look at the interest that's out there. So Google just added support for 11 blockchains. What are they? Here they are. So first of all, what they're giving support for is through the digital or the data analytics service called Big Query. And Big Query, you can go through through Google and pull all this different data. And of course, they have to compile that Google being. And if they have to compile it, that means that people are asking for it. And they're not just gonna do it off of a whim. So here's the ones that they're doing. You just can now query data from Avalanche, Arbitrum, Chronos, Ethereum, Gurley, sure. I'm pretty sure I said that right. Phantom, Near, Optimism, Polkadot, Polygon, Polygon, Mumbai, and Tron. So if you're looking for something to like, I wonder what people are interested in, that might be a good one. And speaking of which, of course, Google says in demand, speaking of optimism, optimism just sold 157 million of their OP tokens in a private sale. So if you're worried about getting dumped on, this might be a thing. However, just know, let's see, they're in layer two solutions. They sold 157 million worth of OP tokens through a private sale, split among seven different purchasers. So you know those are VCs. You know those are private entities. You know those are people who could potentially dump on you. However, just so you know, it says right here, they're subject to a two-year lockup. Two-year lockup. So let me think here. Let's see, 2023 into September. Do you think by 2025, September 20, 25, we could have a massive bull run? I think we could. So maybe that would be your opportunity to maybe get an optimism before people could, if these guys and gals and institutions dump on you, it's just something to think about. And then also, I think there's a, lastly, this is the last part. I think we have a problem with looking at numbers go up and go, well, it's awesome if the numbers go up. That's not true. Look at Pepe coin. Pepe coin went up to absolutely nothing. It was a mean coin and worthless. Again, I think you should look at total value locked, daily active users, monthly active users, and then fees. And one of these things I like to look at is L2B. So we just took a look at optimism. I didn't know, well, I didn't know that they actually gained this much, but look at optimism. As far as the main net, as far as total value locked, they're 2.61 billion locked up. And what are they behind? Well, they're half of what Arbitrum is and base for as much as people have been talking about, which is Coinbase's layer two solution, which is an optimistic rollup. They only have 532 million. So if you're taking a look at the different cryptos that could potentially be the big ones, Arbitrum and optimism are looking pretty good right now. Not to say you should buy into it. I'm just saying there's a heck of a lot that is actually locked up into it. It is a layer two solution. And I think that is what we need moving forward. And that's it for today. So look, if you like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. Everybody talk about his time sensitive, but that concludes the news and that little portion.