 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now, toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi everyone, Basil Chapman on this Wednesday. Wednesday the 22nd of September and we're looking at, this is now what, 10.06 in the morning. We're looking at the spike yesterday to the upside that was given back and we closed at the low of the day. Today we've seen the opposite. Even though I had a Chapman, we've truncated low reading yesterday, which suggests that the Dow should be negative at some point early on and then rally. We've actually had pretty decent rally and now the market is expecting. We'll see whether or not the, there is some, usually there's some kind of a pullback within the hour and a half to the hour to 30 minutes before the Fed speak and then it just kind of holds steady and then it starts to move. We'll see if that happens today because all the selling, I mean look at the selling that's going on. You can see it via the volatility index, the VIX index is trading down at 21.89, it's down 10%. It's down 2.47 after 28.79. It's unusual for the, it's happening more and more that the daily chart of the volatility index actually makes a peak D. Before I used to say it's the only, it's one of the very few instruments in the entirety of the smorgasbord of potential tradeables that doesn't go to a peak D. Look at this peak D back in May at 28.93, plummets down to 14.10 in June, rallies to the high of the 19th, I think that was 19th, yep 19th of July, 25.09 rates, Delta virus, et cetera. So it's a lower high, goes to peak D, pulls back, starts a big move up, goes to A- from the 15. what was that? 15.19 low on the 13th of August, rallies up, then pulls back sharply from the 24s, goes to the 15s and then it spiles to Monday Tuesday, goes to Monday's high of 28.79 and now it's pulling back and usually after peak D it pulls back for a little while. So I'm not sure if we've seen A-low, whether we've seen V-low, it's kind of tough to tell, my suspicion is based on the mix in the market with the DASDAQ 100, a lot of instruments in the NDX 100 are really struggling. Look at Amazon, Amazon AMZ and up 22 with 3,367. It's really struggling, it's making the arch formation at an all-time high of 3773.08 on the 13th of July, made that dreaded H pattern, the trap wave broke down, went one to one to the downside, then another move under the 200-period moving average, spiked above it and now it's getting back to the 3285 key support. So we're looking at, it's actually a very mixed market, look at the IYT, the IYT which includes of course FedEx is up $1.32 at 246 making a low yesterday of 241.21, a leg E in the weekly chart and the dreaded H pattern. So this is very important because this is the second week that it's gone underneath the left side low, that was made back in July of 245.48 and now it's gone a little bit above that, it went below it, closed below it, that's a negative. Well, watch to see what's happening because if you look at JETS, which is the airline, this is the US Global JETS ETF, American Airlines trading up $0.43 to $0.2310, this is a nice move considering COVID and then the variant, the Delta variant, it's stuck in a range, it isn't breaking down but it's not breaking up either, but it is very interesting. Oh, look at that, fascinating, see this little sideways V shape pattern, a pennant formation in the monthly chart, what was the chart that I was looking at earlier on today? Oh, it just had a, absolutely, did I write it down? I always say write these things down as examples of what you're looking at. All right, I don't have it, I don't know what it is, I'll have to try to find it somehow. It was just perfect like this but it was, oh, it's coming back to me now. All right, I'll find it. I don't want to waste time right now. So let's just continue and we want to look at the, so I don't remember the gold, looking at gold, gold right now is trading down three and a half at 1774, see it's just stuck in a range. If you look at the falling exformation in the weekly chart, it's got all that, a lot of resistance. It isn't breaking down, it's not breaking up, I just think it's in a very narrow trading band. Well, first of all, silver is down, up snows up, up 19 cents at 22.80, looking at the arch formation after the PD, one to one to the downside a little bit more than that, trying to get back into the range at 22.82, it needs to break into the 23.50s to say, okay, I'm trying to get back into that whole range with that ugly candle from, it was last week, Thursday or Friday? Friday, I think it was, where it had a high of, there's a lot of trading going on, a little slow here on the platform, 24 round number high, well, I think it just, it undercut it, I think it was 23.98 or something. 24 round number high on the 16th, and it comes tumbling down the same day to 2074. So once you get into that candle, we'll see how it can handle that. Let's go to the dollar DXY, dollar right now is trading up four ticks at 30, 90, 324, holding quite nicely at the high end of the range. Now we're looking at the, oh, DTC Bitcoin, Bitcoin sitting on the 200 period exponential moving average, PT at 53,125 pulls back a little bit, we're still long from way down 12,400s via the Bitcoin fund. Now what we're looking at is, I want you to do crude oil, crude oil is moving nicely to the upside at 7,170, up a dollar 21, there's a chapter of me falling exformation, what does that mean, chapter of me falling exformation for those of you to my work, what it means that you've come down, you're making lower highs and much lower lows, then you form a base of support and you try to break out. See, rising price, in this case you go to peak D, you're pulling back, you're making lower highs and low lows, then you try to find a base of support and take out that trend line, the declining up a trend line and then you can go one to one to the upside to retest the high. So this is right on the cusp, if it gets to 7,235 or higher, that means there's a really good chance it's going to break to a new recovery high. All right, let's get to, I've covered most of, oh, what did I just do? This is very difficult. Okay, I'll get it back in, just trying to get these panels correct, there it is, panel, one on the left side, dating, weekly on the middle, on the right side is the monthly chart, it's broken above, that falling ex, monthly down, mini down channel, so we'll see what happens, what happens here with the weekly, all right, yeah, it's the same sort of thing, it needs to get into the 7,230s, 73s and then all of a sudden that's a breakout to the upside. All right, we've got a break coming up here, oh, wow, there's a lot going on, yep, I'll talk about that, I'll talk about that, I'll talk about these speakers as well, we'll be back in a moment, Baselchamp, thank you for your patience hour, quick break and then we'll be back on a lot together, a lot of questions coming up. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating Investors. Oh, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Hi, folks. We're back. And quite a number of people had mentioned yesterday when I was showing the 30-minute chart, just the Chapman wave with the naked chart and just saying, look, there are things you can do just by counting the waves and very simple techniques. Could you do a little more of that? This shows the E-mini trading leg D in the 30-minute chart. I have a Chapman wave inside, right here, inside wedge target resistance line. And that says on a shorter term basis, the 43... 43, is that 80? Yeah, 86 area would be strong resistance if it can get there. It's in leg D in the 30-minute chart at 43.79 is a December E-mini, S-B-E-mini. And we're looking at the chance that it could get to the high of yesterday in that big spike that at 3 o'clock went to 43.95, 75. Whoops, no. What am I talking about? Yeah, 21st. 43.91, I think I said. 95. And if it's going to do anything like that, it would go all the way to around about 1.30 or 2 o'clock this afternoon. That's based on this. And key support is at 43.79. At any point if there's a 1.30-minute bar that closes under 43.68, that would say that this peak D is probably taking a breather and it's in a rest period. All right, you want to see what it does in the gold. Yeah, look at the gold. It went to a peak C1, C2, C3. It's pulled back. That resistance that I drew in yesterday, it went just a tad above it and pulled back. So gold is in a digestive phase. It's down just to 1776 on the continuous contract. But it is trying to form a second cup formation. So we can't ignore it right now. Very often peak C1, C2, C3 gives you enough. If you don't pull back very far, it gives you the strength to finally make a peak T. We'll see if that's possible. Let's look at crude oil. There we are, crude oil. Yeah, but it went to a peak D with an instant restart. That's a G-stash C. At the moment, I'm just going to call this a D. I won't get into the technicals a little further than that other than to say, yeah, it did pull back after the G-stash C, but it did continue higher. Let's come back to this. And this is a D. You can call it a D slash A. Just to say, I don't know what to do. But what you do in a case like this is you say, hey, wait a minute, there's still strength. You're still making higher highs and higher lows. Just keep in mind that there's nothing yet to say that it's got a pretty good cell signal. So let's get out of this for the moment. I will just keep this up for a while in the 30-minute chart. Now let's go back to our story. So mentioned here in the den was ARQQ. We discussed it yesterday, and I said, uh, no, I said A- A- Uh-oh. ARQ, I think is. Yep, ARQQ. So I've seen this go along the ticket last week. And I thought, what on earth? Let me just get to the story. It is ARQQ. Did I not type that in? ARQQ. No, I noticed it last week as I, um, as some going on the ticker. And I thought, gee, this is very interesting. Over the weekend, I thought, oh, what is this? Um, and then on Monday, I actually decided to take a bit more of a look at that. And lo and behold, it isn't, I thought ARQQ, which is Kathy Wood is one of her funds, or KK. I thought, all right, that's in real trouble. It's in a trading band. It's not going anywhere. Is this one of those? Is this one of hers? And then I looked and I saw that it was, in fact, uh, that it, it was really a fascinating company. ARQQ, Quantum, Inc. Quantum Encryption Technology Platform as a Service, Making Communications Links, Secure Gates Attacks. I thought, wow, in this environment, this is just perfect. Well, it had a huge, I didn't get a chance to even put it in the newsletter. It just started to move and it went from the 15s. And in a few days, it went all the way to the days I have 38, 39. I said to subscribers this morning, it still might happen, I don't think so, that we would like to buy it. I like it as a trade. I know it's already gone, but this is every once in a while, you get something that has, I don't know what you can call it, some kind of appeal to traders. This seems to fit everything there. It's got, it's got the security aspect, like HAC, the ETF, the security ETF. It's got technology, it's got encryption, it's got, I mean, it's got everything in it. So I thought, great. And then yesterday, I had someone in the den asked about where would you go in, where would you buy it for a leg C? And I said, well, it's already moved up. And I think I had said somewhere in the, it was at, I said, you could nibble here. It was 2650 or 2580, somewhere in that area. Well, I looked at it and I said to subscribers, we want to buy it on a pullback. It is highly volatile, treated that way. We don't have too many longs, new longs at this point, got some shorts. That's the way we're looking at the market right now. We have a short that we've just entered right now that we had missed recently. We actually got it, but we missed recently. So what I'm looking at here is this is such a select market. So we missed it by, the low today is 2855. We just missed getting this today because I wanted it for a certain reason. I said, if we get it, if we're long, raise the stop. And I gave certain parameters. Well, we just missed it. And what did it do immediately after it pulled back this morning? We got within, I think a point, 3839 is the high. 2855 is the low. This is really moving. And someone asked how would we play for the next leg up? And that's what I said. So that was in the end. But we technically, we've missed it. It's unfortunate. I think it's in play every once in a while. You get some stock that just appeals to every type of play. Even a long term, this is even for a long term position back when it was in the 15, 16 area. This was something that you could consider that it's in the sector. That's really important. Like the cybersecurity. So this is kind of dealing with that in a way. Anyway, we've missed the trade. The day is young. You can still see some kind of a pullback. This is a whopper of a leg C. So ARQQ trading at 3447 up to 90, up almost 10%. Once you start getting this kind of action, it means that some money is going to come out of some other sectors because people are now looking for real short-term quick trades. All right. Let's get back to our story here. And I want you to, so a couple of questions came in. Have I finished up TLT? I want you to look at the TLT. So bonds trading at the higher end, meaning that the yields are at the lower end. Good. I like that kind of action. Most importantly, what I am looking at here is, what does the Fed do? Well, looking at the chart, the Fed, there's really not too much the Fed can do. They're going to try to be still as positive as we can. You know what? I'll do some other. The downs are 357. This is a huge move to the upside. This is a 58. Looking back at the moment, you have all the seminal. I'll be back with you in a moment. We can get this healthy again. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at TFNN.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows. Interact with other Tigers and Tiger's as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Hi folks, we're back and we're going to go straight to the seminal. Hi, old, how are you? Good morning, Basil. How are you? I'm well, thank you. Let's take a look at SLV. I think I got it at the bottom, but I'm looking at a possible exit point. So I'm pleased you got it at the low, folks. SLV is the Silver, it's rated the iShares Silver Trust. It's trading at 21-20 right now. It's up 36 cents. Now there's a little divergence between gold and silver. At this particular point, yeah, at this particular point, I would actually say that silver has an edge to it, a slight edge to the positive side, but how can I explain this now? Yeah. So, you know, I looked at this when I saw that you were calling in, you wanted to look at the SLV and I thought to myself, wow, let's, if the SLV is just coming off with two little doji candles and a nice green candle today, if this is suggesting that there's going to be a balance in the commodities, if it's part of an inflationary thing, that's one thing. But if independently silver is trying to show that it's got strength, and every once in a while it kind of plays catch up to the strength of gold and once, just once in a while it'll actually lead. I suggest to you that if you got in, did you get in under 21? Yes. Okay, you see, that's a perfect, because I was looking and I thought, wow, if Earl's calling right now and he's already looking to buy with these, the two separate things. If you're already in a 21, 20 right now and you're in under 21, you've got yourself a cushion. I'm in a 2050. So you got almost the low, let's see, the actual low was 20. Yeah, I think I caught the low, yeah. Oh, 20, 2052. So you pretty much got the low. So this is what I'm going to suggest to you. Timing-wise, this is a move in silver that at minimum is trying to fill the gap in the 21s. You will know very quickly, because when gaps are filled, they act like a magnet and that should see silver move very, I just want to see what silver itself is doing. Let's go to that. Oh, yes, okay. So the way silver's got these two green, the day is young. We're not even an hour, an hour into the trading day. Silver's been trading of course all night, but that's different. I'm looking at the actual price as a candle. So if silver at this particular, use silver if you can, use the continuous contract and trading at 22.87 right now, it's up 1.17%, up 0.26, it's up 26 cents. If silver, today's Wednesday, at Friday's close, if silver hasn't given back and gone underneath 22.50, but in fact, he's trading the 23.20s, that'll suggest to me that silver's trying to make a recovery to get back into the rectangle trading range of the 23s with a lot of resistance at 23.80 to 24. That's going to be the big test. If at any point today, rest of today, tomorrow Thursday, tomorrow Friday, if it closes under 22.50, that's a close on the day, if it trades under, that's okay, but if it closes under 22.50, that's going to suggest that both gold and silver probably will be stuck in a bit of a range, a sideways range, maybe with another further test of the low. So your entry point was perfect because it gives you, have you got to stop in place or you're just going to watch it for the moment? No, I watch mine real close, so I'll watch it. Okay, so a question in the Dentaka asks, Basil, do you consider the Fed meeting in your decisions on silver and gold? Just to a certain extent, but let me put it this way, it's the reaction of gold and silver. I don't care what the Fed says, I do care what the reaction in the commodity is, especially gold and silver. So let's see what happens if later today, silver is still trading very nicely and your SLV, you're already up a point basically, but you're up very nicely. So I'm just going to suggest to you, if I was looking at this chart, I didn't know what it was and it did the dreaded H and it closed underneath for three sessions, this is now the fourth session and it's getting back and the load that was made in the SLV on the 20th of August was 2120 we're trading at 2120 right now. If it's able to close into the 2133 or higher today, I'm going to say to you, well, I think your timing was just perfect because just not knowing what it is based on the chart formation, the little candle, little doji candles, indecision candles, and then a nice green candle with a stochastic at 8%, with a chance to get to 11 or 12% if it rallies. This is your opportunity to have more than a balance, but actually a nice trade that could last about two, three weeks, maybe more, but I'm just saying that's the way I'd look at it. What you want to see is your SLV starts to fill in the gap with a high of 2135 and that was the gap down from the 15th, the low was 2195 the 16th, the very next day the high was 2135. So there's a pretty big gap that has to be filled you want to see it work its way it actually is funny because this is a very rare I don't know if you looked at the chart of the SLV but this is a very rare island reversal on the daily chart with a huge three week or more trading band with the gap to the upside the low that was made on the 20th of August of 21.20 gapped up the next day and that gap hasn't been filled and then what happens is if there is an island reversal because it gapped down again after trading to I made this that I can't remember who I discussed this with SLV I said I'm calling this right here in the Chapman way methodology I'm calling the higher 2238 on the 30th and then on the 31st it was 2238 again I said I'm calling that a peak B because everything about it with the stochastic fading says that there should be a D with a down arrow and that's exactly what we got we got the dreaded H plus I circled it with an arch with a circle again now actually I shouldn't do that because that has two different implications I'm going to put it in with a big rectangle to say that there was an island reversal now it happens a little bit more with these any commodity or anything that trades overseas overnight because it's already trading by the time it opens so you get gaps but an island reversal like this is very unusual so if in the month of we're almost done with September if at any point in October without taking out the low of Tuesday of Monday of 20.52 if there is a move that sees a trade above that low which is 2162 that's the low of the 27th if there's a push above that you'll fill the gap that's really a big deal so I like your entry point you've got to stop in place I'm just going to say let's just play out let's see what the Fed does good good attempt to try to pick up a bottom that doesn't just pop it could be more than that. You're the best. Not a 230 for suddenly plunges thank you all. You're welcome. 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gosh there are a lot of traders out there a lot of people are pumping and pushing and doing whatever they can because my platform care this particular one has slowed down a little bit and look we almost got we went to forty three eighty one went to forty three eighty four seventy five just about on that trend line chapter we've inside track is inside inside wedge target resistance line little dashed line there so we keep an eye on that all right let's get back to our story so a couple of things came up for yesterday I was asked I got it I saw it a little too late I didn't realize there was a question there and a question came in is FedEx is a time to be looking at FedEx well what I would have said I like the action right here just look walking on the downside it's really I've always wondered for decades I always talk about walking the nine period moving average or the fourteen period moving average and I've always wondered what do you do on the downside so for any of you have ever been in some kind of a trolley that goes to the downside I give you a ski lift or anything like that so it's like a ski lift right here so you got the ski you're hanging hanging hanging and you haven't hit the ground and then all of a sudden the wire snaps or something and it plumps to the ground that's the opposite of having a big spike a rocket ship spike from a nine period moving average this is the pink nine EMA resistance and it plumps to the downside it's down 21 at 231 and yesterday I just there's something wrong if federal express with everything that's going on with Amazon and just delivery in general is not making new recovery highs in fact is making you unrecovered lows and lo and behold we plummeted so thank I thank goodness I Jason hope you didn't touch this but the question then is now the time with it I would I would say just hold off it's telling us a story it's telling us a story about the look in the IYT it's the rails that are doing very nicely and even the the overall ice is down just cross position average index today is up one at 246.53 so that would include you and P and if I've still got my notation look at that you and P it looks terrible CSX terrible are which is a rider I think that's in there holding quite at the up end of the range a why I think is that Allegheny I can't remember yep Allegheny call I remember these symbols trying to rally I'm not even sure what is making the transports move up like that so all I can say is just be real careful the divergence between the transportation index and the Dow just recently making all time high now pulling back that's something to respect and just say huh that's not a great sign it's not a good sign it's not how the market interpreted so far is not a very sign but it could be okay so I just wanted to say X FDX hold off I do think it will be a buy later on but this is a very deep pullback and I think it's more the words the outlook than anything else so I didn't get into the fundamentals I'm just saying it's not acting well at all to put this together in context if you look at the shippers so the question came DSX what was the question oh can I find the question right now I wrote it down as something to discuss so Diana shipping bulk shippers oh yes so the question was having taken profits in the Diana shipping we've had this periodically independently like this and called it a peak G a peak D I just wanted to show you you're not incorrect in calling it a peak D because in the Chapway methodology we're going to just take a moment here to talk about that there was a how do I get this out there make it a little clearer make it very big so this is on the left side this is a daily chart so this is what we got we got a pullback from a peak E at $5.60 way back 14th of I think it was June pulls back to $3.66 then it goes small peak A peak B peak C the magnitude is positive the on balance volume is flat the stochastic pops over 80% and then comes back down and it takes a while and then under this peak C that was made here DSX is a symbol at $4.50 on the 2nd of August it starts a little mini peak A I call it a gray A because it's under the previous one then it goes to gray B which is still underneath that previous high and then low and behold it makes the same high of $4.49 well a penny under it that's still gray C and then I typed in Chapway overlapping overlapping wave to leg D that's a rule of thumb that we have what's called an overlapping wave when the two waves coincide it usually creates at least a leg D and then D very often comes back and retests the breakout of peak C1 and C2 in this case it didn't it spiraled all the way above the five level the resistance that was early July went all the way towards the 560 level that was made that high back in June and it went to $5 and 21 cents is that correct $5,021 on the 30th of August pulls back for three days retests and then breaks out now what could have happened is you call this a peak D right peak C D and then you get the Chapway instant restart and you call this new A B and C but I didn't I said let's keep going because remember the rule of thumb is to try to keep going in sequential order to at least a G especially if the MACD 9-period differential is positive which it is so he goes EF and then we get the G after the doji can and it makes a high it makes a recovery high of $6.36 and so that was a G $6.36 and now it's pulling back a gap down and it hasn't pulled the gap yet it's at $5 and 31 cents I'm going to suggest to you that just at this particular moment I would not be surprised if after spectacular moves many of these let's see what ship he's doing one of those that was on my list don't type it there type into the little rectangle right there ship okay that's making a D so I would just suggest to you just on the shorter term some of the shippers are taking a breather so the question was is this the time to get back into something like a DSX and I'm going to say to you can you hold off a moment I'd rather be buying signs of strength in the stochastic and the MACD than to buy right now after such a spectacular move $366 to $666 almost a double I would hold off a tad and I think in this market environment right now I don't feel uncomfortable saying that but I could be wrong but it has got a leg D in the monthly chart with still pretty good technicals in the weekly chart wow I'll have to do more analysis on it but at this particular point I just have to give it another day if there's a move into the gap higher than yesterday the high of $358 if we get to $562 I'll have to reconsider but at this particular point I think it needs a rest I'll be back in a moment sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live 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Mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 so quickly Sophie I had a question about Sophie Sophie is Sophie Technologies Inc big move up today it's up 8% up 133 at 16.51 so some of you might recall we had a discussion about this some time ago I said it was an E slash B probably an E and that was an E at 24.94 back in the beginning of June well 24.94 it plummets down it goes under 40 it goes to the 13th area now it is three points higher and it's breaking this Chapman Weave inside track repellent zone day is young it is up very nicely I'll show it to you there that's better now you can see now all of a sudden 16.16 the joint period exponential moving average that becomes support at 16.55 leg C and talk about filling a gap in August so this is a very good breakout days young looks very good question I had about SMH's SMH is trading up at 3.17 at 268.18 trying to fill the gap there I think that this is going to have a problem right at 276.69 all time high on the 16th plummets down to 260 that's 16 points is not a big deal was about 7% now it's trying to come back if the SMH's are able to get into the 271 272 area I must say that says there's a real good chance that it double tries to double top at 276 test that recent high but if it fails between now look it's already got the 9 period moving just yesterday closed underneath the 14 period moving average if in fact there's a give back and it closes by Friday it has even one trade not a close but just a trade 265 that's just it's making HPAT it's probably in the stores have a wonderful day have a great program yes you are getting out a question you is one that I've been working very well quickly very quickly I'll be back tomorrow I have a great time I'll be early tomorrow at 8 o'clock