 Welcome to the CMC Markets webinar with myself, David Madden, on Monday, the 4th of September. We'll just kick off the webinar now. The time is 12.15 as always before we actually progress with the webinar itself. We do have to go through the risk warning slides. I'll just leave the slides on the screen for a number of seconds for you to have a read through. It essentially states that this is a discussion about what's going on in the financial markets, but nothing we say should be construed as actual investment advice or trading advice. So, as always, we'll just leave the risk warning slides on the screen. You just have a read through them and we'll be kicking off the webinar properly in one minute's time. And now that we've gotten the actual risk warning out of the way, we can now proceed with the actual webinar. So, looking at the equity markets and the big news in the financial markets over the weekend was the news that North Korea is testing another nuclear missile. This is obviously spooked financial markets and we've seen a reasonably big sell-off, a reasonable sell-off in European equity markets. It hasn't been the most serious sell-off we've seen in recent weeks whenever there's been heightened tensions surrounding North Korea. But nonetheless, traders are still on the fearful side of things. South Korea feel, we could speak North Korea are actually preparing more missiles so traders are going to remain on edge. Obviously, the stand-off has been going on for some weeks now but every time we've seen tensions ratchet up to a new level the classic knee-jerk reaction has been a risk-off strategy. We've seen money pour out of equity markets and pour into the classic safe havens such as gold. On top of that, we've also seen money go into the Swiss franc and other classic safe havens play. So the big hit of news over the past 24 hours a hour, 48 hours has really been the sell-off in relation to what's going on in North Korea. Today is Labor Day in the United States of America. So even though the indices, the actual indices are available for trading the cash equity market in the United States is closed. So what we could see is any negotiating movements in the US index futures it may not be a true reflection of what's going on in the actual market seeing as the underlying stock market in the United States is closed for US Labor Day. As always, we have a quick run-through of looking ahead to what we can expect in terms of big economic and corporate announcements over the next few trading days then we'll go through the major markets and then we'll wrap it up with any kind of questions you have at the end of the webinar. So taking a look at the week ahead this can be found by going on to the news and analysis section of our website under news and analysis from there you then click on the topic third option down weekly outlook and then the weekly outlook click on it here gives a breakdown of the major both economic central bank and corporate stories which are in play over the next few days. So taking a look here, we can see here that we have a number of updates from a number of central banks, the European Central Bank of Thursday the Reserve Bank of Australia and also the Bank of Canada rate decision. The ECB is probably going to be the biggest one to watch out for in this part of the world. Traders are already speculating that Mario Draghi is going to voice his concerns about the strength of the euro. Obviously the very loose monetary policy at the European Central Bank have had in place for the last number of years is showing signs has been showing signs of it working. You have seen a decline in unemployment, a lot of the broad economic indicators such as services, manufacturing, construction, they've all been on the rise but what happens when the region picks up trainers they want to buy your currency because your region is growing then your currency becomes a bit too strong or relatively strong to other currencies, you can't have a negative impact. Mr Draghi on Thursday's meeting is tipped to talk about how he is how the strength of the euro is actually acting as a bit of a curtail to the euro zone recovery. Also what we have Tuesday, a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia with a rate decision no change is expected on that regard in relation to what's going on in the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar has been quite strong. It's rebound in commodity prices. Also what we are probably seeing is that we have seen a broadly speaking decline in the US dollar in the last few months so that's also propping up the Australian dollar. Speaking of commodity currencies we have a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Canada on Wednesday. We're not expecting any rate rise out of Canada but seeing as we had a rate hike from Canada only last month from the Bank of Canada we're not really expecting anyone on Wednesday coming up but also if you do trade the dollar only, the dollar card it's obviously something to keep an eye out for. We do have some data coming out from China on Friday bearing in mind we had some good manufacturing numbers coming out of China above the private survey and also the official survey were quite strong and now we're looking towards the service sector and Beijing are making a concerted effort to move away from kind of a heavy industry economy more towards a service based economy. So keep an eye out for those who are from China which will be out in the early hours of Friday morning. Taking a look at the corporate front we have a few companies with 40 numbers out as always but to be perfectly honest nothing overly popular. Taking a look to tomorrow, Hewlett Packard Enterprises had the third quarter numbers out. Here in the UK, Red Row won the home builders have their full numbers out. Sticking with the home builders, we have Barrow Development and full numbers on Wednesday. Sticking again with the home builders, the homeless homes have their half-yearly figures out on Thursday. That's probably the kind of major companies in terms of our kind of popularity with our clients here to keep an eye out for. So I'm now going to run through some of the major markets which clients trade and I will have discussion in relation to the popular markets and then if there's any markets that I haven't covered and you would like me to have a chat about feel free to stick that in the actual comment box itself. So as I mentioned, I sell off in European equity markets this morning. Just taking a look now at the FTSE 100, the UK 100. What we can see here is that it's been broadly been pushing lower over the last number of months and this region here just south of 7,300, 7,288 is key support, major support on the FTSE 100. So on one hand it's been finding it very difficult to move south of that price but at the same time it hasn't really made any major gains to the upside. It's broadly speaking negative but it's more of a sideways negative than an outright negative. You'll see what I mean when I bring up the DAX in a second. That's very clear and concise downward trend where this is more range bound. So move to the upside. If you do see a push higher in the FTSE 100, the first level, the resistance to keep an eye out for from Friday will be 7,461. If you do see a move beyond that, the next level some traders may be looking out for could be the old support new resistance at 7,481. This region here. And if we were to take out the high in August of 7,552, that would be quite a bullish indicator and that would be a sign that we're going to have broken out of the range bound area that we've been in for the last number of months and that would be a sign that we're going to potentially move on to the June highs and potentially set on record highs. But what we could see is we've seen a lot of range bound activity on the FTSE 100 in recent months. So it's possibly more likely we're just going to stay in the same range area here. The market may find it difficult to go north of 7,500 and to the downside if you do see any kind of moves lower which you have seen moves lower in the last few months the support at 7,350 will be the first level to watch out for and then south of that the support, the key support at 7,288. As you can see here, this line here has been a major support region for the FTSE 100. So we could actually see fresh buyers come into the mix and you see the market heading down to that level again. But also a key support if and when it finally actually is broken, that's when we could see a wave of selling potentially. So we're turning our attention now to the Jura market and you'll see what it means about how the FTSE is relatively range bound whereas the Eurozone markets such as the DAX are very clear and obvious downward trend. So this is the all-time high that was created here in June and as you can see we've been creating it very clear and obvious downward trend, classic downward trend lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high lower low, lower high, lower low and now we're seeing another lower high. So while we remain south of this price action here 12,343 which would be the high from August the outlook for the DAX is going to remain negative. So but if you do take out that level we could then we could see some addition by moving because that would be taking out a previous lower high and the next level to watch out for north of that will be the 100 day moving average which previously acted as support and it's now potentially may act as resistance that comes into play at 12,445 and then looking north of that we'd be looking up towards 12,576 should we continue to press higher. But as I mentioned we're in a very clear downward trend we've already tested the two-day moving average this morning the two-day moving average is currently just north of 12,041 so should we trade below the two-day moving average which we've done previously only last week on Tuesday we could be seeing a move down towards retesting of that level that low of 11,867 as you can see we've been clearly printing new lows but taking out previous lows and that is a fairly obvious sign that we're in a downward trend on the Germany 30 on the DAX should we take out 11,867 traders will then be looking towards 11,800 region or just shy of 11,700 at 11,692 as I mentioned at the very beginning of the webinar the cash markets the individual equities for the American Stock Exchange are not traded today but the futures market is open on the index itself and because of that you can actually trade the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 even though the actual underlying equity markets are shut the US equity markets have been in a better shape than what's going on in Europe particularly the euros of equity markets have been stuck in a negative move for the last few months so when we did have uncertainties around in North Korea we certainly did have a large sell off in the Dow Jones but as you can see here the market has been pushing higher for the last couple of weeks or just over two weeks the trend is going to back up to the upside and the momentum is clearly declining so that can be seen that whatever selling pressure that has been going on is waning a bit so the bearers are running out of steam as the equity market is actually pushing higher so let us to watch out for to the upside on the Dow Jones will be 12,000 sorry 22,087 and then north of that we'll be looking towards 22,200 so on and so forth should we see any moves to the downside in the Dow Jones areas of potential support may come into play at 21,816 and then this region here where the 50 day moving average is 21,738 down to around 21,700 notice how just south of the 50 day moving average on two occasions the market try to just south of it and then push back above it again so that's why I mentioned that's why I mentioned the market hasn't exactly as it actually receives support from precisely the 50 day moving average just been a bit below it so the region between 21,738 down to around 21,700 that region may act to support should we see a sell off in the Dow futures it's a similar picture for the S&P 500, take a look at that where the market has been moving higher for the last maybe say two weeks or two and a half weeks and we've actually swung to positive territory positive momentum in the S&P 500 so while there was intense selling pressure we did see the market push lower but as we saw a turnaround in the equity market on the S&P 500 we did see confirmed by the decline in negative momentum and now it's swung to positive momentum and our positive momentum is actually increasing granted we have pulled back a small bit here from Friday's session but by and large it is looking a bit more positive than what we've seen here in Europe so let us watch out for to the upside the S&P 500 will be 2,480 and then 2,490 and 2,500 then if you do see any pullbacks we could see support coming to play in around the 50-day moving average at 2,453 or down to around 2,450 itself south of that this region of 2,442 turning our attention now to gold as I think the opposite move in comparison with equity markets the classic risk on trade has been to pour cash into the classic safe haven trade such as gold whereas equity markets have been under pressure and you have markets like Germany printing multi-month lows last week on the upside side of the story you've gold printing fresh highs here this morning traded the high of gold this morning took off the high in November in case you're wondering what date that was that was the night of the US presidential election when Trump was elected so we've created a new multi-month high for the price of gold as you can see it's an clearly clear and obvious upward trend and what we're seeing down here is also an increase in positive momentum so that that geology momentum is clearly with the buyers if you continue to move on higher the next region we could be watching out for on the price of gold potentially is 1358 which as you can see here looking at the back of late our last quarter a second last quarter of 2016 some resistance coming to play just shy of 1360 in around the 1358 region moves lower in gold could find support in 1326 as I mentioned it's any markets that you would like me to cover and just please put it in the box and I'll happily go through those details sticking with the commodities theme let's turn our attention now to the oil markets looking now at oil what we've seen here on the Brent crude contract the rebound that we saw since June has kind of run out of steam and it's been very much range brown for all of you speaking just shy of $54 down to around $50 a barrel this is the price actually what I've been talking about on Brent for the last number of weeks very much range bound it can't seem to make it's mined up either way and obviously the situation with the tropical storm Harvey has obviously seen a brought some new kind of issues to the oil market into the mix looking here we can just about see that the oil market has been supported by the currently moving average of $52.21 should remain north of that we could see resistance coming to play $53 a barrel and then should we move north of $53 the level to watch out for to the upside would then be the August high over $53.83 as you can see here the price is trading in a relatively low range there it's still a negative momentum the momentum is dissipating so it could suggest that whatever the selling pressure is out there is declining but at the same time we haven't seen oil in positive momentum for some time should we move south of the trading moving average which is $50.21 the next potential level support would be this price here which just shy just below $51 a barrel $50.63 which kind of almost coincides with above the 50 day moving average and also the 100 day moving average in this price region here WTI actually has been a bit of a different story but a divergence between the two the long and short of it is that when you have refineries in the United States it was taking crude oil and refinery to very different petroleum related products and when those refineries are out of commission and are not in use due to the flooding on the back of a tropical storm and input into those refineries has been a decline because of our decommission and that's why we're seeing some weakness in the price of oil recently and that's also been a divergence between WTI and Brent on top of that so similar situation the charts for the two energy markets are fairly similar but obviously the tropical storm has brought things into a bit of a mix notice how the market has been broadly moving lower throughout the month of August tying in with the wider 2017 2017 theme of a decline in the oil market and notice how the 50 day moving average acted as support here but then the market couldn't sustain it and as soon as it moved south of it it then became resistance but the push higher from Friday to Friday it's still a negative momentum but negative momentum is in decline so it could be a sign that we're potentially looking to turn positive in terms of momentum on the price of WTI but realistically it's also been fairly range bound over the last number of weeks so if you do see the price of oil lift higher the next potential resistance level to watch out for is going to be this price here at $48.23 then of course beyond that the 30 day moving average will be an important level to keep out for which comes into play at $49.31 and then we'll be looking towards the highest of August and the highest of July at $50.27 it moves lower in the price of WTI we're back towards $45.24 and then south of that we've been looking towards $44.43 and $56 on the price of oil looking now to Eurodollar as I mentioned Mario Draghi is due to speak on Thursday and Mr Draghi is tipped or is believed to anyways so talking about the strength of the Euro we've just gone the great time by Mr Draghi just after the expected non-farm perils come out on the Friday the European Central Bank stated that they won't be looking to address or look to have a plan to taper the European Central Bank's bond buying scheme on to at least December so that was their way of saying that right guys we hear your concerns about and you've heard that respect when we're going to trim the bond buying scheme but guys we're not in a position to do anything on to at least December so that's the ECB's way of telling us that it's on the radar but we're not really in a position to do it yet but we have acknowledged because clearly there's been so much pressure from the financial markets that when the ECB gonna at least announce Taper or talk about tapering because remember when the ECB's bond buying scheme was introduced in the first place it was talked about confirmed and months before it was actually introduced so the ECB ideally would like to keep the currency as long as possible it isn't their interest to keep the currency weak because that assists the recovery but looking here at the chart it's in a very clear obvious push higher it's in pushing higher for several months now but we have seen a bit of a wobble here interesting enough the market push well above the 120 level nearly last Tuesday but ever since then had a quick fairly quick sell off and hasn't really managed to get north of that they get back up to it so you'd almost want to see the market move the Eurodollar move north of the 120 region again before we can actually be more confident that the wider bullish trend is in play notice how you have a relatively small range in around here could point towards some indecision we have seen that we did see a decline in positive momentum and slip into negative momentum which is still on play so look out for if you're looking to go long just bearing in mind that the higher the market moves up in the first place the more confidence you can be of a positive move so we are seeing some indecision so should we break north of 120 then potentially we may see further gains extended from there to the downside if we do see this low taking out here which is in 1823 that could be a sign that we've got more ground to lose south of 1823 traders are then looking towards this the low here from the previous Friday at 1773 and then we could see it moves back towards 1780 in this price in this region here looking at our cable so by a large cable I had a pretty poor August the very beginning of August is going to set the tone for the month but we have seen the price of cable turn around as you can see here as the market was pushing lower and we saw a fairly obvious increase in negative momentum but this is why I often let you talk about momentum in webinars because you want to see that the momentum and the price are pointing in the same direction so as the price was pushing lower and lower and lower you could see negative momentum was picking up but then in around here you can see the negative momentum is tapering off around the same time you do want to see those two moving in the same direction since last week since last Wednesday we have seen, sorry Wednesday before that we have seen about 10 days ago a turn around in cable that's broadly been pushing higher and that's mimicked here by the decline in negative momentum and the swing in the positive momentum and we're actually increasing positive momentum again but the previous support for the 50 day moving average is now acting out of resistance so that level will need to be cleared before we can come more confident that the upward move we're seeing here is part of the wider bullish move and not just a bounce back for this set off before we actually move south again so we would want to take off this price here which comes into play not too far away from just in around the 129 129.60, 129.70 region sure we move north of that and then beyond that 139 up towards 131 131.64 any moves lower in cable may find support from the 100 day moving average 129.15 and then south of that this low here from Thursday at 128.53 if we can start to take our previous lows that could be a sign that we're going to retest the low of August 127.77 and then south of that we'll be looking back towards 127.16 looking at Euro starting, the Euro's had quite a good run recently it's been a fairly clear and concise upward trend versus the pound over the last number of months much to the upside but as you can see here the market has turned around somewhat giving back some of the gains that it has made also mimic for the fact that we have seen a swing to negative momentum and there was still clearly a negative momentum on the Euro starting but similar to the Euro dollar you would want to see the market taking out with this previous high here in 47.92 kind of 40 region before you can become more confident that this negative move here is just a pullback and a wider positive move and then of course should we take out that should we take out this price here in around the 90 to 40 would then be looking up towards the recent high just north of 93 itself and then onto 94 during the price targets if we take out this low here at 91.48 would then be looking back towards 90.88 and then 90 itself in terms of levels to watch out for to the downside on Euro starting so dollar yen has been very much in a fairly obvious downward trend over the last number of months we did see a creation of a new multi month low only last Tuesday we are seeing some signs that the move higher here in the dollar verse at the end is slightly running out of steam if you look here at the positive momentum notice the positive momentum today has dipped a bit in comparison with last Friday so it could be a sign that whenever an upward move is running out of steam and if the market is going to turn over on itself we will be looking towards the downside target potentially the old support in the middle of August at 108.63 and then south of that the August low of 108.26 and then south of that again looking towards 108.13 notice when the market was pushing here it's a classic creation lower the markets in a clear downward trend creates a new multi month low pulls back at the previous high creates a new multi month low and when it bounces back it doesn't take out at the previous high so while we remain south of the 111 region that could point to further losses for the dollar yen but should be a decisive break north of 111 that could put us back on track towards the 112 region and then north of that we would be looking towards the charity moving average at 112.46 so I'll just do sterling yen and then we'll be looking to wrap up the webinar just find out the currencies so looking at the sterling yen the chart has been pretty obvious since the mid July in a 30 year downward trend we have seen a bounce back we have seen a somewhat of a pushback in the pound particularly against the US dollar in the last number of weeks not too dissimilar here notice while the market was pushing lower we did see momentum in very much negative territory now we're seeing the market bounce back and positive momentum as well back to the positive side but seeing as we sort of kind of run into somewhat resistance in the charity moving average price which previously acted as support here and some support here it could be a sign that this is just a bounce back and a provider downward trend so the charity moving average comes into play at 142.46 so about 50 pips north of where we are currently we would like to see a decisive move north of that we would like to see the price action of around the kind of 143 taken out so that we can become more confident that this is just a resumption of a positive move in the last couple of weeks rather than the market pushing lower bounces back to the charity moving average and then goes on to create a new multi month low so like I said you can be more confident of a continued positive move if it takes out 143 the all support acting now as resistance the 50 moving average at 144 15 would then be the next level to watch out for and the north of that 145 if the market does turn over on itself that can actually take out the charity moving average convincingly this price here at 140 will be the next level to watch out for south of that the August low of 139.30 and then we would look towards the June low at 138.70 and then we would look back towards 138.00 the figure like the last market you're welcome the last market I'm not going to cover is the Australian dollar versus the US dollar because it's a few minutes beyond the schedule so the Australian dollar US dollar has had a great run throughout 2017 and I'm going to go back quickly to the may onwards as you can see here as the market was pushing higher it was somewhat reflected in positive momentum and this is a good example of why I like to talk about momentum because it's probably the most important thing that you're watching but also you want to see the rate of change is the buying momentum slipping or not so as you can see here the market was pushing creating new multi month highs which is great the momentum initially was positive but we're seeing buying momentum or positive momentum decline so that is your first warning sign that the divergence the market is creating new multi month highs but it's doing so at a reduced rate the buying pressure is running out and of course that's your first signal in itself and what do we see after that we saw a pullback of a few hundred points we saw a pullback of negative momentum comes into play and then we see a decline in negative momentum so this move here, looking at this year we could potentially see a swing back to positive momentum so should we see a turnaround a continued push higher from the mid-august upwards this could be a resumption of a wider positive trend that's been in play we could be looking towards 80 and then of course we'd be looking towards the August rather than the July high of 80 65 and then we're looking towards 81 and then beyond that any moves lower in the Aussie dollar we'd potentially find support in the 79, south of 79 we'd be looking at this price here in 78-75 and then back down towards this price action here just north of 78 itself before I finish up on this webinar I want to thank you for your time and attention as always let's quickly show you on our site where the news analysis, myself and my colleagues updates the news analysis section several times throughout the day this is where you can find the update news analysis also pointing out other other webinars that we do have coming up on the horizon under the learn tab which were you found obviously this webinar what we have on Wednesday the Wednesday at half nine sorry while she's starting with tonight rather we do have a webinar at 7pm London time on Monday the 4th of September so tonight 7 o'clock 7pm London time Trader Development Foundations of Check and Analysis we have this webinar here on Wednesday at half 7pm we have the commodity trends webinar and then back to next week as we do every single Monday we have the 12.15 webinar which I hosted by myself before I let you go on our platform I'm just going to show you where we do market insights some of the news analysis that we do is posted up on the news analysis section now like data updates get put into the insight section here so under market pulse second option down insights for kind of a short commentary brief commentary on a particular chart including a screenshot of a chart that can be found on our chart form so market pulse third option down chart form also if you're trading the financial markets you should always be keeping it off for the economic indicators and announcements which are coming out once again under market pulse the fourth option down is our economic calendar here this is going to be a breakdown of what the previous report was what the forecast was and then also as soon as the numbers are out itself it will give you an update immediately once those economic indicators have been released Ivan Dev Madden here market analyst at CMT markets thank you very much for tuning in and listening please sign up for future webinars and have a good trading week and good luck