 Good afternoon, and we're delighted at this very substantial turnout The TV cameras in the back out number of the people in the room, but that's all right We'll I'm sure Kurt is used to seeing all that attention And it's clear from this unusual arrangement with the the panel seated off the the riser here We need a bigger space which in a few months. Hopefully we'll have Let me just say that We're particularly honored to have Assistant Secretary Campbell here. He has one of the greatest jobs in in the State Department And one of the things you learn in any of these jobs is that The muse of history will almost always trip you up and give you Issues to work on that you really didn't anticipate. I mean just before I was sworn in in the job Tiananmen occurred So I was out of the China business even though That's what I had worked on for many years and became the assistant secretary for Cambodia Chris Hill took the job and he ended up being the assistant secretary for Pyongyang so we're going to hear something about the agenda that a Very interesting region these days is presenting secretary Campbell East Asia is probably in the most dynamic period in terms of Shifting power relationships Great challenges the nuclear proliferation being one but economic relations and not with not only with China But with the region more generally larger strategic relationships India is now Sort of looking over the shoulder of the region. So we're going to hear some I'm sure some very interesting Perspectives on what's going on in the region I'm also very appreciative that we have a great panel state Roy a member a former member of our of our board here at the Institute An ambassador to everywhere great colleague Priscilla clapp also a long-time colleague and and friend who knows Burma particularly Well, but knows knows the region and our John Park whose focus has been on North Korea and finally Having Marvin Kalb is our interlocutor Marvin presided over a very interesting Program we ran out in San Francisco in July called conversations on war and peacemaking and He he quizzed former secretaries of state George Schultz and Madeleine Albright in the Roughly the format we're seeing here today. So Marvin is a member of the family that is Helping us with these important public events. So with that Marvin the podium is yours Secretary Campbell to start with the obvious. This has been a very active summer. I Mean we could start with two secretaries Clinton and Gates being in Korea at the same time Having discussions with the South Koreans everything Clinton in Hanoi secretary Gates going down to Jakarta and one could have the impression of a neatly coordinated American policy toward Asia and the Pacific It all could have been an accident to in travel plans But what I'd like to hear from you is whether in fact it was the first stage of the Unfolding of a new kind of policy. What can we look forward toward in the immediate or near future? Thank you first off. I could just say a few Welcome words. It's great to be with Marvin again when I was a young graduate student and also a Professor we all looked up to Marvin at the Kennedy School and it's great to see him here and say thank you to the panel and to Dick Solomon who's led this wonderful institution Every day when we drive into the State Department, we all wish we could take a left instead of a right because the new building is a Marvelous wonderful architectural compliment to the State Department and we look forward to having you join us in the neighborhood and we Thank you for all the good work that you've done not just on Asia, but on a range of issues as a whole Marvin to directly answer your question Obviously the United States is deeply engaged in a variety of areas and ways right now and and primary focus has been on The challenges that we're facing the immediate challenges in Afghanistan and Iraq and others in South Asia But I think the truth is that this century the 21st century will belong to the Asian Pacific region this is the Most dynamic area in my view and it's not just because I'm responsible for this region this is going to be a defining arena for American power and purpose in the 21st century and I think there is a deep recognition in the Obama administration That the United States has to sustain an extremely high level of engagement and activity and Purpose in the region as a whole and I must say I'm very blessed to have not only a very strong player But a very good friend really at the helm of the White House in Jeff Bader Who is our really primary architect on what we're trying to accomplish what you saw this summer? Really is just what the region demands now Marvin No less. This is the this is the tempo on which we must sustain a very strong position in Asia, but a position that either through other challenges elsewhere or Changes in the region itself Requires constant nurturing and attention. What would you say are the two most pressing challenges for the US in Asia now? I Couldn't limit to two, but I will try to be very short in my answer There are a number of critical challenges that we face obviously deep uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula That is something as as Baster Solomon has indicated and it makes a lot of our time and attention We have major challenges associated with The rise of China which I think is primarily an opportunity We're working closely to sustain a very high level of engagement and working together on a broad range of issues There are the challenges of building a new architecture in the Asian Pacific region one an architecture set a series of meetings and Engagement with which we seek the United States playing a very active role current in all my years looking at this I've never understood the use of the word architecture. Yeah, what do you mean by that? Well, let me let me just conclude then I'll come back to architecture the other issue that I'd like is not to forget We have a tendency to focus on the near-term hard challenges But the truth is I would argue that some of one of the biggest longer term challenges in the Asian Pacific region is actually climate change And it poses enormous humanitarian and frankly I would argue national security issues on top of already issues of terrorism and his Fundamentalism in parts of Asia as a whole so it is the full range of challenges. I share your concern I was at a interview once and someone said, you know, what do you mean by architecture? Are you you know building a house? You know the and in fact what what it is meant to connote is A collection of countries that that they need to meet together to work together on a range of issues What's what we see in Europe for instance over the course of the course of the last 30 years are very deep Very stable institutions like the EU and NATO and others that have served as a mechanism to deal with disputes to manage complex financial and Political matters and essentially to chart a course for now some of those institutions have been imperfect But they've played a vital role in The sort of the political topography of Europe what we see in Asia is Frankly numerous institutions, but all with relatively shallow roots And one of the things that we think is going to be necessary with the course of the next generation is A deeper commitment not just on the part of Asian friends But on the part of the United States to building an architecture that allows for greater cooperation and Consultation on the critical matters that confront all of us in the 21st century You didn't mention specifically Japan and one of the issues that comes up with the Japanese now quite regularly and In an unusual way is the rapidity of political change in Japan now which might throw the State Department a bit and Secondly the rising tension on the issue of American bases in Japanese areas How are you dealing with this? Are you any closer to finding a reliable? Routed Japanese political entity with which you can establish a relationship First of all if I could just underscore we have a deeply reliable strong partnership with Japan and I would underscore that Over the course of the last year Marvin there has been enormous reporting on one issue and almost one issue alone a Difficult base deny undeniably a difficult base Situation Okinawa, but unfortunately what we have not seen is commensurate reporting on a range of other issues so for instance Japan is the second largest contributor to civil reconstruction and humanitarian projects in Afghanistan a commitment made during this particular government Japan has provided Very real resources to deal with some of the challenges in the aftermath of Copenhagen climate change related matters They are Supportive of our efforts Japan stepped up and said we want to join with the United States and the international community on sanctions against Iran without us asking that's a very major step and we've seen a very strong commitment on the part of Japan in dealing with piracy issues around Africa and more recently what you will have noted is That it's not just the United States working with South Korea to ensure that we're closely tied together to deal with the outrage the Provocation of the Chonan. It's the Japanese with us and so I I think unfortunately the story that has largely been missed Is how closely we've worked together during an undeniable, you know It's a seismic change in Japanese politics a new government coming to power our consultations have been close And we have very real confidence about what we're going to be able to accomplish in the future But you don't see any instability then in the relationship at all given the rapidity of the political changes I see that there is a deep dialogue and a sharing of views between the United States and Japan then in many respects as long overdue and a lot of questions are being asked on both sides and a lot of issues are being addressed in a way that I think is Actually fundamentally very healthy and helps lead to a regeneration of the Alliance We're joined here by the Chicago Council and foreign relations friends here are Talking about their new study on on attitudes They have done some extraordinarily important work about attitudes in the United States about some of our key allies One of the things that we find over the course of the last year or so is that we have Unprecedented levels of support in Japan and the United States for the US Japan Relationship so I would say that among many things to worry about in the Asian Pacific region The US Japan relationship is not one of them But what about the base problem which is after all not a new problem. It's been around a long time now But there does appear to be More tension in the relationship caused by that problem. You certainly see it in the Japanese press You see it in commentary all over the place So what how does that stand? Look, this is an issue that we've been working on for years Yeah, the United States has a very strong commitment to do what we can to ease the burden on the people of Okinawa But also we have a dual responsibility to maintain a very strong deterrent and Military capability nation Pacific region and our forces for deploying Japan are a critical probably the critical part of that Overarching objective. How many how many American troops are in Japan? Oh? You know the total numbers are you know airmen soldiers sailors and Marines It varies on a regular basis the general way to think about it Marvin is about a hundred thousand four deployed troops give or take in the Asian Pacific region and Probably coming up on half of those or more are in Japan at any one time I would simply say that we have a process underway Between our Department of Defense and our State Department and our Japanese interlocutors We've made a lot of progress over the course the last several months and Prime Minister Kahn stated very clearly when he Assumed the position of Prime Minister of Japan that he intended to go ahead with the agreement between the United States and Japan So we Look there are between allies there are often Challenges I'm proud of the way we've worked on these challenges, and I think we'll be a successful I really don't want to push you on this But it would be interesting to find out Your judgment of somebody deeply involved in the process right now whether what are we a couple of months away from an agreement? Look, I wouldn't want to speculate. I would simply point out that the process associated with a major set of steps associated with Okinawa began in 1995 I was actually in the Pentagon started that process in 1995, and I think I've learned during the intervening periods not to hold my breath So it could be quite a while yet before you get a deal No, I look I would also suggest to you that this is going to be an ongoing issue We have a long-term commitment to making sure that we're a good neighbor in Japan and particularly in Okinawa Well, one of the ways in which you're a good neighbor with Japan is in terms of measuring trade Japan is all over the American market, for example Perhaps not as much as it used to be but certainly still there, and I'm wondering what New ideas perhaps as the Obama administration Advanced to try to help Increase trade in a very profitable way for both sides, but certainly the US could use that right now Well, let me Just answer that question a broader context says you suggest between the United States and Asia as a whole one of the strong points that I think President Obama has underscored is That over time there's going to need to be a rebalancing of our economic relationship between The United States and Asia in which Americans are going to need to save more and over time Asians are going to have to spend more and they're going to have to buy products From the United States and elsewhere now there are complicated mechanisms associated with it My wife is the undersecretary of the Treasury I am on a regular basis Schooled in the fact that I'm not to talk about macroeconomic or trade issues. I will not I will not hear today I would say Kennedy School. Yeah, I would I would simply say that We are deeply engaged in a variety of efforts in Asia The president has underscored his commitment to move forward on the career free trade agreement I think this is an important strategic commitment of the United States There obviously will be some details and issues to be worked out Those are not my responsibility better the strategic level. It's very important for our two countries We've also announced strong intention to move forward with the Trans-Pacific Partnership involving a number of key players In Asia it is clearly a 21st century Trade initiative I think one that could set the scene for a broader and deeper engagement of the United States In the region as a whole and I think overall you will see in a range of US government departments a desire to increase American exports ultimately that's going to be An important measure of our overall success overall success in Asian Pacific region What is it that the US can do now to advance the prospect for this kind of an end result? What kind of initiatives can the US lay out on the table to make it more attractive for Asian markets? To come to the US the US to go there to make it Easier for the United States to cope with the economic problems that we now have look there are a number of initiatives that Are being undertaken and that are underway I would also say Marvin just in fairness the level of economic engagement between the United States and Asia Over the last 20 years dwarfs anything compared to the rest of the world So there's already been a substantial success and that you will find that there is a very successful Market penetration in a variety of areas aircraft high technology Services medical and other things in the Asian Pacific region. We sent we seek to replicate that add to that Going forward. I think the truth is the last couple of years have been tough economically in the United States the most important Contribution that we can make to a strong and stable US policy in the Asian Pacific region region is a strong and stable American economy And one of the ways I suppose that we can get to that kind of end result Is somehow to persuade the Chinese government to be less manipulative perhaps in the way in which it deals with its currency? How are you managing that you as China relationship right now starting with the economic perspective? I'm gonna try to artfully dodge that you got a hunt. Yeah, I'm not gonna put I'm gonna dodge There's a different a punt is a different than a dodge. So I I'm not gonna play that later I'm not gonna I'm not gonna speak about the economic or macroeconomic issues right now I will say I think there is a broad and deep recognition in the Obama administration That it is essential to have a strong stable constructive relationship between the United States and China I think We are committed to that you will have seen over the course of the last several months a Stepping up diplomacy. There have been some major interactions between our two sides those Diplomatic double deliberations cover the full range of issues before us I think there is a understanding between the leadership of our two countries that We have a much better chance of Dealing with the major challenges before us if we work together Work together as well on this currency issue. I'm just really not gonna not gonna go there Okay, well, let's go somewhere else but still stick within the China sphere because China is a subject that comes up in almost every conversation and I read just the other night a report by Linda Yacobson who is a China specialist and did a paper for a Cypriot in Stockholm in which he raised a very interesting question Because from the outside China looks as if it's this mammoth Country run by the Chinese Communist Party with the Chinese Army and Air Force and avid kind of on the side exercising influence the depths of which we don't quite grasp at the moment and Linda says there's a whole new wave of leadership Types arising on the Chinese horizon that are now demanding more space more time More power and I'm wondering how are you at the State Department see this? I think at the root of your question is a recognition That for our diplomacy to be successful with China Requires not just the kind of very high-level White House to the senior official State Department to senior officials, but a much broader and deeper engagement of the kind that To be perfectly honest we spent a lot of time on I'll give you a for instance one of the things that President Obama Launch and Secretary Clinton is trying to carry is Initiative is an initiative to increase the number of American students who study in China by a hundred thousand over the next four years Through grants through working with other foundations with other educational Institutions we think one of the most and what we've seen is a substantial increase in Chinese students who come to study the United States We believe that there needs to be a much larger group of Americans who understand not just China, but Asia as a whole and we're seeking to Promote that sort of people to people diplomacy which you know sometimes is viewed as an afterthought But when one looks back on that in time it turns out that those initiatives in fact Were as or more significant than some of the very high-level stuff that goes on. I'm curious Kurt How are you doing this? Are you is the government now providing more? Scholarship money for students going to China. How are you encouraging the study? Among the American students of the Chinese language culture. How are you doing this? I don't I won't go into it in great detail, but it doesn't work. It doesn't involve currently More resources on the US side frankly in the current environment, you know, we don't have it But what we have seen is a commitment on the part of the Chinese government to provide 10,000 Scholarships which was made a few months ago to American students and the idea here is not just to allow Students from elite universities, but to actually reach into the heartland places people and places who may not have had as many Opportunities to engage in Asia what we've also tried to do is make Institutions and people aware of existing monies and existing scholarships turns out There's a lot of this that people were not aware of and frankly, you know, there is a little job-boning going on as well We're trying to encourage Chinese and Asian entrepreneurs to invest in efforts to bring Americans to China and to Asia as part of a larger sort of overarching Initiative and American foundations. I think increasingly are responding to the challenge of Asia, which is the defining current I'm fascinated by that and it's very interesting and Does the department have a? new appreciation perhaps of the Balance of power inside of China today and I raised the question within the context of many many more stories suggesting a rise of an old-fashioned kind of Chinese nationalism which you find among to my surprise anyway among many students It's not necessarily anti-americanism But a rise in Chinese nationalism Followed by a belief that hey China is the Middle Kingdom and people ought to bow down to us a bit more Number one. Do you find that to be the case in your dealings with the Chinese and what do you do about it? Let me say particularly in the last couple of years it is undeniably the case in our interactions with the government and the intelligentsia and Key players who are interested in China's role in the world There's a recognition that China is playing a larger role on the international scene and they want the respect indeed That that that that coincides with such a role And I think it is incumbent on the part of the United States and other key players to provide China with that recognition. I think one of our challenges is to make clear one of the hard things about About being a global player is that not only are there great privileges associated with that But there are responsibilities associated with that. So we've been trying over the course of the last many months to work closely with China on a range of initiatives that we think are both essential for maintenance of peace and stability and for Global economic issues that you referred to I think I'd allow others to speak about it but clearly the cooperation between the United States and China and other Asian countries played a critical role when the the the global economy was teetering to Year and a half or so back What you've seen is very close coordination between China and the United States on initiatives associated with North Korea the culmination of UN Security Council resolution 1874 after the Nuclear tests close work on issues associated with Iran and on non-proliferation Issues in the light. So so I mean I I think Striking that balance is going to be a critical part of American foreign policy Well, you mentioned Korea a moment ago. And so I can't resist asking you About former president Jimmy Carter's article which appeared on the up a page of the New York Times today In which the former president says flat out that as a result of his visits and talks with the North Koreans and the Chinese He believes that North Korea is now open and is positive about a Deal of a broad-based deal with the United States South Korea and on the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and I'm wondering whether when you picked up that The time-stay and you took a look at that whether you were surprised did that coincide with your view of the North Korean policy, thank you. Let me just say that first of all we were grateful for the role that President Carter played in achieving the release of mr. Gomes who had Gone into North Korea and was under some duress and the fact that he went there on a humanitarian mission to help retrieve him We are quite grateful for As President Carter indicated in his op-ed and his comments He did not carry message for us. He was not involved in any A Diplomacy orchestrated or initiated by The United States government let's assume he couldn't resist Let me just say that I think some of the messages and the the The specific language that the North Koreans use are well known to us and that we have seen those statements over a period of years We currently have Ambassador Sun Kim and Ambassador Bosworth returning from consultations with South Korea Japan and China And also they'll do subsequent discussions with Russia about the way forward on the Korean Peninsula I would simply say that It is our view that the United States is prepared to sit down to work with our other six-party compatriots and partners on A six-party Negotiation with North Korea under the appropriate circumstances We need to see a Re-engagement between North and South after what we have seen vis-a-vis the Chonan And I think we need to see some signal from the North Koreans that they are truly serious About fulfilling the commitments they have made in terms of Steps towards denuclearization in the 2005 statement and otherwise and I think Some of the actions that we have seen Call into question whether they're prepared to take those steps the secretary Clinton has suggested that that we Will keep that door open as the president have as well and we are committed to do that and We will work very closely with our allies to try to have a united front in Presenting an option for the way forward with North Korea Could I've listened? I think carefully to what you've just said and I think you're saying that The US government does not share the form of presidents Generally optimistic view of the relationship now Yeah, I'd rather not characterize. I don't know exactly President Carter's thinking he did come in and brief secretary Clinton on this And he wrote his article so he's briefed you when you know it. Yeah, I mean do you share it? I mean is he saying something that you didn't know? Yeah, I think in terms of how he laid out the position of the North Korean government We those points are well-known to us, but I must say in recent years. We've seen a series of actions nuclear tests other provocations including the sinking of the Chonan which have raised very serious concerns about The ultimate goals and ambitions of the North Korean Leadership we remain open to the possibility of moving forward, but we don't want to return to a Way of doing business with North Korea where they Secretary Gates has said, you know for the same commitments receive New commissions new new support. We we seek to break that pattern And we're prepared To be patient towards that end, but we also are along with their allies committed to Committed to a process of diplomacy With North Korea when and if they're ready Is it possible Kurt that what it is that the North Koreans and the Chinese? told Jimmy Carter is a signal Of a positive nature that they hope the State Department would pick up I think it'd be fair to say that we're very Secretary about a Ambassador by the North and Ambassador Sun can arrive home this evening And we will be looking to sit down with them to get a sense We are seeing some signs of a renewal of Humanitarian assistance from South Korea to North Korea The North Koreans released the fishing boat that They had taken a Month and a half back So there are some signs, but I think we're still waiting to see the ultimate Direction going forward. I will say that What you see is a very close coordination between the United States and South Korea at at the outset But also with Japan and we have shared very closely our views with Chinese friends about the appropriate way forward What is this thing has been going on Kurt an awfully long time the the problems with the North Koreans Really go back obviously to the Korean War and there have been so many diplomatic efforts and Presidents and ex-presidents have tried to manage this thing. We always appear to be Roughly at the same point. What has to break the ice at this point in order to move it forward A new leadership in North Korea, perhaps, you know potentially, you know, it's difficult Marvin to speculate on hypothetically no, I appreciate obviously This is a very delicate time on the Korean Peninsula and it's important for the United States to be deeply engaged And we're seeking to do so so in all of our conversations in Northeast Asia Topic one generally tends to be developments on the Korean Peninsula I think it'd be fair to say we are trying to be prepared for every possible conceivable Direction over the course of the next the coming months and I think you said earlier that in your dealings with the Chinese You're getting a more cooperative Chinese Understanding of the complexity of the Korean problem that you're more or less seeing the same things together Look, I think the truth is that China has a complex calculus on the Korean Peninsula and that is just Undeniable there are we at a strategic level. We share many common interests. I think we want to maintain peace and stability you know, we worry about some of the consequences of the revert of something else happening on the peninsula we we we seek to prevent proliferation and we seek to Create nuclear free Korean Peninsula, so we have broad strategic areas in common And we have been able to work together. I think it is not a secret that during the period after the sinking of the Chonan we had some very Challenging diplomacy at the United Nations The president indicated as much in some of his statements in Ottawa earlier this year But overall we are committed to if anything Having even more dialogue with China because we recognize that we have extraordinarily important responsibilities with respect to the the way head on the peninsula, you know early around you you said Kurt that the Asia-Pacific area is the area in the 21st century that the US will be deeply engaged in and I've heard some of our former colleagues at the Kennedy School speak about the problem of trying to see the rise of China as a Challenge to be concerned about or a challenge that somehow through clever Smart diplomacy the United States could take advantage of and try to hook up with China in the fashioning of the New Asia How do you see this as a challenge an opportunity? You know anyone who works on the diplomacy of Asia Recognizes that it is simultaneously both really. Yes, and like most things in Asia. It requires balance, so I'll give you a a Wonderful little accidental anecdote. I remember in the 1990s I was working in the Pentagon and a group of Japanese friends came in to see me and They'd never been there and the Pentagon is pretty imposing if you've never spent much time there and they walked in and you know The meeting was a little bit curtailed and the translator was just very rushed and so my Japanese interlocutor kept talking about the balance of power in Asia, but The interpreter kept getting it wrong and kept talking about the power of balance Which which in reality is really unintentionally wise and in fact in fact if I could say one of the most important things Marvin for the United States is to maintain that balance and that balance means to recognize that we have to have a deep diplomacy in Asia Towards China with China, but it also means working with other key countries You will have seen over the course of the last several months We've talked primarily about Northeast Asia Japan and South Korea, but also a deeper engagement with Indonesia With Vietnam with Malaysia and I think most importantly one of the most important elements that we've seen in Asia Over the course of the last several years is the arrival of India not just as a South Asian player But India as an Asian player and so that element is going to be important and I think the truth is as you think about You know crafting a strategy for China there has to be elements that involve deeply a Desire to cooperate and work together But also there has to be a recognition of the challenges. We have a different system of government I think in many respects a slightly different ambitions and how we manage those are going to be extraordinarily important History is littered with challenges of hegemonic transitions gone awry The good news is that I think the strategic leadership in both countries appreciates the challenge are Attuned to that challenge and are trying to address it in constructive helpful ways. So the idea of Military confrontation between two superpowers like China and the US is not even on Near horizon for consideration. I can't imagine anything that would be more to stabilize it In global politics than such a clash and I think we need to do everything possible to build greater trust and confidence Between our two sides one of the things that we have been working on Very hard of late is in an effort to build and rebuild stronger military to military ties between the United States and China Not simply just to get to know each other But also to create the kinds of shall we say rules of the road for how our Two forces need to work together Not just you know on the high seas and in the air, but also in increasingly working together, hopefully in UN peacekeeping situation and humanitarian matters and This is of a cooperative nature that the military on both sides That is its inspiration. Yes Let me ask you an impossible question as we end this part of our dialogue and go to our panel of questioners What are the Impossible things to predict for the United States dealing with China What are you not preparing for what can possibly pop up? You're gonna see why didn't I think of this? Let me just say that a good friend of mine that who had served in this job before Told me at the outset when I took over he said try to avoid two things You know, don't talk about currency. We've achieved We've done very well. We've achieved that so far, but the the day is still young So that's number one and number two is is really try to avoid answering hypotheticals I think the truth is that we think a lot about Unintended and unanticipated outcomes and developments in Asia From the Korean Peninsula to Developments in maritime matters to other big issues that we confront I think It is critical for the United States to maintain that flexibility And to recognize that history rarely is written in linear lines, and I think that's A point that we need to underscore constantly in our diplomacy. Thank you very much We're now shifting over to our panel and we have three Experts here and I will call upon them to ask Kurt Campbell a question Ambassador Stapled in Roy who's the director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for scholars mr. Ambassador Secretary thank you for your very good comments so far. I would like to pick up on a on a point that You and Marvin have already touched on China's behavior and its attitude over the past year Suggest that many Chinese have concluded or believe that China's status in the world has risen as a result of China's rapid recovery from the Global financial crisis while the United States status has declined What are the implications for? US-China relations down the road If in fact Beijing has included that the United States is a declining power and that China is now in a position to assert its interests in East Asia more strongly and The add-on to that would be if China has concluded that we're just planning power. It's possible that others in Asia See us in the same light Including possibly some of our allies. So I mean there's some potential enormous implications for our foreign policy in the region I'd be interested in your comments First of all, let me just provide a little anecdote. I I'm a Political appointee, so I'll be in the State Department for a relatively short time and our civil and foreign service Officers are gracious enough to you know treat you with respect for the short time that you're there state Roy is Probably among a handful of two or three people that are the most respected Asia hands Who have served in the department over the course the last half century that long? So when his name comes up, I notice that you know Junior officers stand up a little straighter and they sort of focus their gaze on some distant sort of thing So it's a it's it's a it's an honor to be with him today, and I appreciate the question Look Stay I would take slight issue with the positioning of the question. I am finding increasingly in Chinese intellectual discussion a recognition that only at once peril Do you count up the United States and what we see? increasingly is a recognition that there was commentary about American decline in 1975 at the end of the Vietnam War and In 1989 at the end of the Cold War only to find the United States because enormous advantages the just the massive ingenuity capabilities of our educational system the innovative qualities of our government and essentially the staying power that that in fact those that kind of Belief turned out to be both short-sighted and wrong And so I see more and more in Asia a recognition that the United States is going to be a dominant key player in Asia for at least the better part of the next 40 or 50 years, and I think that is a stronger view now in Asia As a whole and so and so I think that is more the animating feature of US China interactions a recognition that yes China's role on the global stage has Grown much larger in recent years But the truth is the United States has never left the stage and we're going to be a main actor on that stage For decades to come now. We need to fulfill that We need to take the kinds of actions that Marvin underscored at the outset And we need to make sure that our economy our diplomatic and military steps are in close in close conjunction with that ultimate goal You want a quick follow-up you got two minutes, okay? Okay, we're still a clap the former chargé d'affaires at the US Embassy in Burma, please For the past 20 years US policy toward Burma has centered on the National League for democracy and on the legacy of the 1990 elections The 2010 elections this year this November will close the book on 1990 and have caused the NLD to disband as a political party My question is how will the US policy how will the US policy adjust to these realities are threats of further sanctions and prosecution of the generals in an international court and effective policy and If so, how can it be rationalized with the engagement policy you have pursued for the last year? Thank you Priscilla First of all just a little background my way very much appreciate a question on Southeast Asia We're you know too often when we talk about Asia policy spend most of our time talking about Northeast Asia I would say one of the most I think innovative directions of Foreign policy and national security of the Obama administration has been in Southeast Asia both Commitment to the US ASEAN process appointment ambassador to ASEAN signing a treaty of Amity and cooperation and a variety of bilateral steps to build stronger relationships When the Obama administration came to power, I think there was a desire to look closely at what our Approach has been to Burma After an extensive review in which we consulted stakeholders and nonprofits inside governments in the region as a whole I think we came to the conclusion that both the kind of open engagement strategy of ASEAN without any particular downsides for failure to make adjustments and the sanctions only policy of the United States had Failed to accomplish its goal of Change inside the country so with the full support of the administration. We have embarked upon a Dialogue with North Korea excuse me with Burma on a range of issues. I think it would be fair to say to date That dialogue has been disappointing and it's been very challenging for so you know much better Than I do We have sought some specific steps in terms of political prisoners on Song Soo Chi tried to convene or support a domestic dialogue in advance of the elections scheduled now for November and also tried to receive some Assurances from Burma about its Certitious relationship with North Korea now. I think it would be fair to say that in almost every arena We have been disappointed in what we've seen to date We did say at the outset that however that we did not expect this to be a short-term process It was going to take a long period of time and what we've tried to do Priscilla is not Overpromised and underdeliver. I think at every stage we've tried to be honest about where we are in the process I've been able on my trips to To Rangoon and a padat to meet on song such on such a G She has supported our overall approach and our engagement as have many other elements inside the country as a whole We were faced With a predicament. I think everything we've seen to date Suggest that the November elections will be without international legitimacy. No observers none of the internationally acknowledged steps that one would see before an election have taken place at the same time that we regard this path as as Lacking Necessary credibility. It is also the case that the period after the election might create new players new power relationships New structures inside the country. So we think we need to stand by and See how that plays out. And so we've been in close consultation with all our friends in the region About our intentions, which are to keep the door open to try to work Towards a comprehensive dialogue With the regime and its follow-on Successors with the recognition that that is among all the difficult options the best possible way forward We think that it is going to require a combination of some pressure and also some rewards if Progress is made and we are prepared to act in both cases given developments on the ground But quick follow-up. What is it that you think the Burmese leaders want? What do they want from the US? Marvin it would I Probably have spent as much time thinking about two things. What does the North Korean leadership want? What did the Burmese these are two of the hardest cases in terms of trying to glean and fundamentally understand the motivations and the objectives In my first meeting with Don Sang-su Chi we spent a better part of 30 minutes discussing why Initially the leadership wanted to relate wanted a dialogue with the United States and neither of us were Entirely sure and frankly, we're still discussing it going forward Ultimately, however One of the few benefits of this effort has been a Better dialogue with the rest of Southeast Asia with the rest of ASEAN about Burma We are now able to say look we're trying we need more help from you and It allows us to have a fuller diplomatic engagement, which I think is in the best strategic interest of the United States in the region So well last panelist John Park who is the director of the Korea working group here at the US Institute of Peace Thank you very much. Thank you very much secretary Campbell. Thank you We've been seeing a lot of movement with the Communist Party of China Interacting with the Workers' Party of Korea and it looks like Within this period of the accelerated leadership succession process in North Korea the Communist Party of China is investing Considerable amount of political capital as well as economic development assistance to the rising generation of the Workers' Party of Korea That's something that has been reaffirmed by both President Hu Jintao and Kim Jong-il and Changchun at the end of August Yet all of this is happening with no Chinese references or linkage to denuclearization by the North Koreans So my question is what are the implications for the US's denuclearization centered North Korea policy? When we see China going further down this path this two-party path First of all, I think that China is Attempting to do several things currently on the Korean Peninsula The first is to deepen its dialogue with the United States and to share perspectives on the way forward The second is I think they have decided to try to build deeper Personal connections and institutional affiliations within North Korea Given the changes that are currently underway or potentially underway as you described I think third they are seeking Quietly to reassure South Korea that they still want a strong relationship with South Korea And that is an important foreign policy political and economic goal And then lastly I would differ slightly with your assessment I do hear in all our discussions with Chinese interlocutors including Ambassador Wu Dewei who was in Washington two weeks ago a strong and steady commitment to the return of to six-party talks and a Reaffirmation of the key principles associated with denuclearization So I think what you're seeing generally is a multifaceted strategy on the part of China that reflects their very deep national interests in Developments on the peninsula as a whole Well, you know our time is up. I'm sorry to say it. I want to thank you very much Secretary Campbell for taking the time and visiting us here at the US Institute of Peace And I think all of us in the audience can show our respect Thank you very much to our panel as well