 We have another mid-week NASCAR Cup Series race coming up on Wednesday night at Martinsville. The first race under the lights Martinsville has ever had, I believe, in the Cup Series. They just got lights installed and they're going to try them out on Wednesday night for the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 and should be a fun one both for DFS and for race. And so let's dive in and break this down from a DFS perspective. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the Fandral Podcast Network in NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 from a DFS perspective. If I sound kind of weird it's because I was just at the dentist and do not have full feeling in my mouth. I can't move my lower lips so we're gonna work our way around this. Jordan had the flu game. I have the numb tongue mouth situation podcast here for today. We'll need the shelf life, need to get the podcast to all of you so we're gonna plow through this and see how things go but uh just as a heads up it sounds a little weird. That is why. Lock for Wednesday's race is at 7 p.m. eastern time and the starting order was set last night which means that we already have all the info we need to fill out line-ups. So as you are listening to this podcast you can fill stuff out. Usually when I talk to you I have not filled out any line-ups yet but that is not the case for this one. I have been telling out line-ups. I found some that I like and we'll go through what's been working out well in the tier by tier breakdown. But first the PGA is back in a big way this weekend with a massive daily fantasy contest on FanDuel. This week's mega eagle contest includes one million dollars in total prizes with first place netting one hundred thousand dollars. Best of all it is only seven dollars to enter. To get yourself a chance at all that cash go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel app eligibility restrictions apply. Let's take a look at the track breakdown here for Martin's Zone. We're gonna have a similar line of thought here as what we had entering Bristol and we need to emphasize lap sled that is a big key for this race because Wednesday's race is 500 laps. That is 50 FanDuel points for lap sled available at our disposal. That's a lot. We want as many of those points on our rosters as we can get. To look at this and get an idea of how we want to fill out rosters we're going to check out the 2017 and 2018 races at Martinsville. 2019 had a rules package where passing was impossible so Brad keselowski and Martin Truex Jr dominated the two races. It was it was bad racing. This year they're going back to a package which is more similar to what they ran in 2017 and 2018 but before 2017 they didn't have stage racing which bunches up the field a couple of times per race and that does change the dynamic from a lap sled perspective. So 2017 and 2018 are our most relevant races. In those four races between those two years 10 drivers led at least 100 laps in a race. That is an average of 2.5 drivers per race. Three drivers led at least 200 laps and Joey Logano led more than 300 laps in the fall of 2018. So you are not going to win a tournament if you don't have those drivers on your roster and it's going to be tough to even cash if those guys are popular enough. So we need to emphasize laps led. That should be pretty clear here and it's actually even more important than it was in Bristol. In the Bristol race we saw some guys who led a bunch of laps like Ryan Blaney had problems. When someone leads laps and then crashes it lowers the number of laps available to lead for contenders and that makes it more likely that we'll see place differential drivers crack the perfect lineup. But crashes in Martinsville are less common than they are in Bristol. So the odds that someone who leads a bunch of laps crashes and does not finish well are lower. If we look at those 10 drivers to lead 100 or more laps eight of them finish in the top four spots. So you definitely need two lap leaders per lineup that you fill out on Fandall and you may even need three and you could potentially get three as well as we'll discuss later on. Those lap leaders are going to have to start at the front of the pack. Of the 10 drivers to lead 100 or more laps nine started in the top 10 spots and all 10 of them started 14th or higher. It is hard to work your way through the pack here at least in a hurry. So drivers who lead laps are going to start at the front and that does fit well with how the starting order was set last night. The top 12 cars and owner points drew us at the top 12 starting spots. So the 12 best drivers least in theory from the first 10 races of the year are occupying the top 12 spots in the order. So the guys most likely to lead laps are starting at the front anyway. It takes a lot of guesswork a lot of the guesswork out here. We kind of know who is going to lead laps and those guys are starting at the front of the pack. The question is how much does it matter whether they're in the front half of that 12 or in the back half. The answer is that it kind of doesn't but it will influence which other drivers you use in your lap. In all four of those races in 2017-2018 the driver who led the most laps started ninth or lower. The driver who led the second most laps started in the top five and this is pretty easy to explain anecdotally. Early on the driver who led laps started out front. If you take the lead on let's say like lap 10 you may hold that lead the rest of the first stage but as the race goes along the cream rises to the top no matter where they start the race. So someone who starts ninth can eventually take command and lead the rest of the race. So that is why we see the split where the driver who leads the most laps may not start all the way at the front but there will be someone at the front who does lead laps early on. This is perfect for the waves approach we discussed in Bristol and in Charlotte. So let's say you love Denny Hamlin who is starting 12th. You can still use Denny Hamlin. He can win from that spot but what you'll want to do is pair him with a wave one driver who can lead laps early on. That way you're not sacrificing upside while Hamlin works his way up through the pack and toward the lead. You're not giving up laps led early on the race. This does not mean you have to use waves approach though. Like it's a viable approach. We don't have to use it. It is very possible your two favorite drivers from this race all drew top end starting spots. The top two guys in my model are starting third and fifth. That's kind of how it happened for me. If that is true use those drivers. There is enough upside to go around for every driver starting up there. The waves approach is just something to use if you want a driver starting in the back half of the top 12. The other things we discussed in Bristol are as being keys were mid-range drivers who can lead laps and being willing to punch and both those are relevant to your once again. We'll go through some mid-range guys I like in the tier by tier breakdown but there are two advantages to using mid-range drivers. The first is that it could give you a more balanced roster if one of your dominators cheaper. That's a good thing. Alternatively it could give you three lap leaders if you have the salary to squeeze that in and that's an option here and there are ways to do so and as I mentioned I've been telling a lot of you can make that happen so mid-range drivers who can lead laps are huge here. Punting is in play too and it can help you squeeze in that third lap leader at times. The attrition of Martinsville is lower than in Bristol which means that drivers running further back won't get artificially good finishing positions but there will be some incidents and the pool of drivers who can get a good finish is larger here than it is at a track where equipment matters more so both those things are conducive to punting so all in all our approach here is going to be pretty similar to what it was in Bristol. We want to emphasize laps led above all else. It is totally okay to load up on drivers starting within the first few rows. If you have three drivers starting the top six if you can afford it that's not a terrible idea if you think all three can lead laps. If you do want to drift further back I would try to pair them with a driver who is starting up at the front to give you that ways approach not sacrifice laps led early on. Mid-range plays are swing options where if they can lead laps that's awesome. If not they are good for play differential as long as they are not depriving you of extra chances at lap leaders like Jimmy Johnson is 10-2 this week. If you can use Jimmy Johnson he's in a good spot he's starting 21st but if he comes at the expense of a lap leader that's where you want to have some pause and potentially spend down and look elsewhere. That's what you should do mid-range drivers for this week. The value plays it should be placed differential options and they are available on the slate there. Some guys outside the top 24 even who are viable and we should be willing to use super cheap drivers if it gets us access to more upside elsewhere on our lineups so be willing to punt emphasize laps led and look for mid-range drivers who can lead laps. If you do that you should have some good lineups on Wednesday night. With that said let's go through our tier by tier breakdown here on FanDuel starting off with Kyle Busch at $14,500 through Chase Elliott at $12,500 and all five of these drivers in this tier are in the top six of my model and they're all starting fifth or lower so that means we can play things pretty straight up here. My model has this tier ranked Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott. I think that I'm a bit higher on Keselowski than what my model is and that may make him my favorite driver in this bunch. Keselowski is starting sixth which means he is on the outside row alongside Truex well outside third row. Keselowski two career wins here he has not finished outside the top 10 since 2015 and the last time he finished outside the top 10 he led 143 laps before crashing later so that's good the track history is very good we know the form is good too so I think Keselowski may be the highest ranked guy in this tier for me but it is pretty close and there are some guys in the second tier I may wind up liking even more than Keselowski. I am okay putting Truex second ahead of Kyle Busch he has five top 10s and four top 5s in the past five races at this track and that includes his dominant race last fall. Busch is super consistent and he leads a ton of laps I just feel more comfortable being high on Truex than high on Busch given the way things have gone for them recently so Truex over Busch for me. My model does like Harvick but I think I'm gonna put him a hair below Chase Elliott's they are both starting deeper in the pack 10th and 11th respectively and Harvick doesn't tend to lead a bunch of laps here so I'm gonna put him below Elliott's which makes my ranking of this tier be Keselowski, Truex, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick. The second tier on Fandals Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin at $12,000 through Jimmy Johnson at 10-2 and in this tier are three of my favorite drivers at any salary for this race. Those are Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin. Let's talk about Logano and Blaney first because they are the quote-unquote wave one drivers. Blaney is on the pole, Logano is starting third and Blaney is only $11,500. He fits in really well with our discussion of trying to find cheap-ish drivers who can lead laps. Blaney has had a top five average running position here in three of the past four races. He led 145 laps in one of those so really good history here at Martinsville. As for Logano, he is the highest ranked driver in my model regardless of salary. He's only $12,000. He's not as consistent as guys like Keselowski here but he has at least 200 laps in a race here twice. He won in the fall of 2018 and led 309 laps in that race. He also won in Phoenix, the only other race at a short flat track this year so I will have a lot of lineups where I pair Logano and Blaney together and sometimes they'll even give you enough salary flexibility where you can jam into the third step. Enter Denny Hamlin because he is perfect as a wave two driver starting back in 12th. Hamlin is a five-time winner at this track and he has three straight top five finishes. He is supposed to be at a statistical peak this year with this being his age 39 season so I suppose well for him here so after the draw this tier is really really good with Blaney, Hamlin, and Logano all being among my favorite plays for this race. After them would be Jimmy Johnson these 10-2. Johnson is someone you can really use only if you've already got two studs who can lead laps already locked in but you can fit him in with them as mentioned filling out lineups that it's not that hard to get Johnson in there at times. He started 21st so the place differential upside is there. He hasn't been as good at Martin so recently but Hendrick has been a lot better recently and the current form here is elite so I think that to me this tier is Blaney, Logano, Hamlin, Johnson, Kurt Busch, Alex Bowman in that order. The mid-range options on Fandle are Clint Boyer at $10,000 through Matty Benedetto at $8,000 and a lot of guys in this tier are starting near the front. I want to touch quickly on Boyer who is starting fourth. This is a really good track for Clint Boyer. He won here in 2018 and he has had a top 10 average running position in four of the past five Martinsville races. He has also been pushing for wins and leading laps at times this year because he hasn't really had everything click for a full race just yet. So Boyer is not out of play and I think that he is actually a pretty high quality pivot off of Ryan Blaney but I would rather go with the place differential guys in this tier personally because I do like Blaney so much pushing me away from Clint Boyer at the front. The same line of thought does apply for Eric Almirola though he also has a pair of top 10 average running positions here in the past two years so Boyer and Almirola are in play but if you're doing like 10 lineups and you don't get there I don't think that's the end of the world. So 10 lineups don't need to go there if you're doing more sprinkle them in but to me Blaney is really the the mid tier guy you want at the start of the pack. My favorite driver of this tier this will not be a shock to most of you is Matt DiBenedetto. A big part of the reason that I like DiBenedetto is that he's starting 19th so place differential upside is definitely in play there. He had a 14th place average running position in this race last year so he can get around this track and he's cheap at $8,000 so I like DiBenedetto. The second guy for me in this tier is William Byron. Byron finished runner up here last year he had a fifth place average running position so he's starting 15th and he's probably not going to attract a ton of attention from a popularity perspective unless people focus on that fall race last year but I do think that Byron is interesting. I think he's got an outside shot to wait given how good the Hendrick cars are here. So to me it's DiBenedetto first followed by Byron. I would put Boyer third though again he's in a specific build and then Almirola and I'm just lower on Eric Jones and Tyler Redick and I think that's kind of the big takeaway from this tier. Jones tends to struggle here. Redick has not run this track in a series higher than the truck series. He never finished better than fifth here in that series and if we're looking at the truck series there are cheaper drivers who actually won here in a better history at Martinsville in the truck series than Redick. So if I'm going to bank on truck series form at Martinsville I'm going to go cheaper than a guy like Redick who is $8,200 and I'll put Jones and Redick lower on my list as a result of that. The value plays are Mack Kenseth at $7,800 through Chris Bushwer at $6,500 and this is a really good tier whereas I'm not super into the tier above this. I do like the value range and I think there are a lot of drivers we can feel good about. My favorite here is Austin Dillon. He is starting 20 seconds so place differential upside is there and he's also been running well recently. This is at least a decent track for him. He had a 12th place average running position here in the spring race last year so at $7,300 he gives you a realistic shot at a top 10 finish and some place differential points along the way. That will work for me so Austin Dillon definitely someone I am okay targeting at $7,300. Christopher Bell is starting 30 seconds that is the deepest in this tier by a pretty wide margin and he is similar to Redick where he has not run here about the truck series yet but Bell was good here in the truck series. He led 96 laps finished third in 2017 he's starting 32nd whereas Redick is starting 14th and Bell is also $1,200 cheaper so I like Bell despite the lack of experience at this track. He and Dillon will both be key value players and I want to explain that's why I like Bell more than Redick even though they have some of the same detractions from them. Chris Buscher drew 24th which is enough to make him interesting. He has had a really rough stretch since the end of the COVID-19 layoff but he did have three top 13 finishes here with JTG Dority Racing now in better equipment he's only $6,500 so I like Buscher quite a bit at $6,500 a little bit cheaper than Bell and then Dillon. So this tier to me is ranked Austin Dillon, Christopher Bell, Chris Buscher, Ryan Newman and Matt Kenseth. I am willing to use any of those drivers whether it's in the same lineup or as a way to differentiate and I think I like this tier quite a bit more than the tier above it so the value plays here really good which should make you able to afford Jimmy Johnson and able to potentially get a third lap leader in your lineup. The punting tier is also pretty good that's Ricky Senes Jr. at $6,200 on down and there are a couple of intriguing guys here. My favorite ones are Cole Custer, Ryan Priest, Bubba Wallace and John Hunter Nemechek. Custer right here in the truck series finished fourth in 2015, seventh in 2016. He actually led 96 laps in the first of those two races so like Bell was running out front he is starting 27th and he is $6,000. As for Ryan Priest he is a modified driver which means he has a lot of history at Martinsville. I believe he's a former winner here in the modified series I think he was like back in 2008 or so though. Priest was not great here last year but he wasn't terrible. Starting 28th average running positions last year were 21st and 19th he's $5,500. I'm okay taking a spin at that. As for John Hunter Nemechek and Bubba Wallace they are starting higher in the order. Nemechek is not 18th Wallace is 23rd but I'm still at least interested and willing to use them. Both these guys are former winners here in the truck series. Bubba won twice back in 2013 and 2014. Nemechek won in 2018. Bubba finished 13th here last year and the equipment this year seems to be better for Wallace than it was previously. So because Bubba is cheaper than Nemechek and starting deeper in the pack I prefer Bubba between the two but both these guys are in play. Once you consider starting position and salary of these guys I would rank this tier Custer 1, Bubba 2, Nemechek 3, Priest 4 but I'm willing to use all of them personally. So okay with any of them but I think that Custer, Bubba, Nemechek, Priest in that order are my favorites here. Ty Dillon also at least in play at $5,000. That is all we have for the tier by tier breakdown. Let's finish up with Picks to win for this week. We hit on Kevin Harvick last week so feeling good we're going to go back to the model this week and see what it likes and it likes Joey Logano. Joey Logano starting third, $12,000. He is plus 950 at Fandals Sportsbook. I think that's pretty long. I do like Harvick 2 at 12 to 1 so a couple potential bets there on Logano and Harvick but Logano is the official pick for the podcast. Among the guys at $10,000 are cheaper. I don't really like anybody to win to be fully honest so I'm going to go Eric Almirola. Again a couple of good runs here in the past with Stewart House Racing and starting at second. So Almirola the pick but in reality I think if you're looking for potential dominators it really is the guys mostly Blaney on up who I think have the best odds to lead this race, lead a bunch of laps and potentially get that checkered flag as well. That is all that we have for today. Thank you for bearing with me with the weird speech problems. Hopefully things are cleared up by this afternoon when we record covering the spread talking some golf with Brandon Gadoula. We also had Brandon yesterday on the heat check to preview the Charles Schwab challenge. That's here in the same feed you are listening to right now, the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. If you want to get Brandon's thoughts on the Charles Schwab challenge make sure you check out the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you eat your podcast. If you have any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to Cal and Theobald, our video producer for running the video side of things here today and putting this full video up on the FanDuel YouTube page as well and I think most of our podcasts are going up there too. So make sure you are subscribed to the FanDuel YouTube page and thank you Cal as always. Finally, I thank you to all of you for tuning in for today and dealing with my inability to speak and need to swallow my spit. Fairly often, I appreciate your patience, I appreciate you tuning in and hopefully you can parlay all of this into a good run on Wednesday night. We'll talk to you again on Friday to preview Sunday's Race and Homestead. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.