 So we're pretty much in the last week of October, time flying by, it's October 24th today. This is the CMC Markets Weekly Charting Analysis webinar with myself Jasper Lawler. Just got the risk warning on the screen here, I'm going to allow you to peruse that at your leisure. A bit of a move taking place in equity indices, noticeably the German DAX or the Germany 30 as our product is listed. That touched its highest level all year, pulled back slightly from there, so we're going to assess that potential there for a bit of a break higher, but not ensure that that's necessarily going to follow through on the other indices, we're going to touch on that too. Any questions you have on any particular stock index currency or commodity, please feel free to let me know at any point and I'll answer your question as you answer it, as you ask it. Quite a bit of M&A going on as well, so for those of you buying the individual shares within CMC Markets, quite a few deals taking place there. Anyone who owns French Connection shares, quite happy today, bit of M&A talk there. If you're buying the US shares, then Time Warner shares doing pretty well or expected to do pretty well on the open, AT&T looking to buy out Time Warner, though it looks like it may get into a little bit of trouble with regulators and the two presidential candidates have both said they would, well I think Clinton said she would assess the deal, so a bit fudgy there. Trump said he would just stop it, so no messing there. Both quite interventionist candidates, so bit of a kind of general risk to deal making in the US, potentially if both these candidates get in, either one really, though I suspect with Clinton it's probably more pre-election rhetoric than actually genuinely meaning it. So as I mentioned the Germany 30 to start with, let's go straight into that, because that is pulling back a little bit, but it's right up there. So this is the range that we've been talking about for a number of webinars now, this is the daily chart, so you can see we've been stuck in this way and I mentioned just in a short note last week that it's been in that range here for 12 weeks, if you start down here. And so 12 weeks, about three months, and we're eyeing a potential breakout here. Now we're obviously pushing into the highs, we've edged slightly above it and we've also seen a break of this RSI well-defined trend line down here and this bottom trend line holding up pretty well. So this momentum shift to me suggesting that well of course we can get a bit of a pullback from those selling the top of the range, I think eventually this breakout could happen. Now we do have a few layers of resistance right above, quite a clear cut one is that if you look at this little move high here from trough to peak, you see it pulled back quite nicely into the 61.8 and it's moved up higher to the top of the range. An extension of that breakout, a 161.8 extension, would take us pretty much bang on to the 11,000 mark. So that would be an obvious first target to this move higher, gain a bit more legs. And then as you pull back the weekly chart you can see that we start pushing into the highs of November last year. So we've got the break above this high here. We've been pretty flat but signs starting to show now but maybe this was some accumulation in here and the market's going to push higher. Why might that be the case? Well one is we'll have a look at another chart and the second is the euro. The euro dropped down to seven month lows last week after the ECB basically didn't say anything but the market nonetheless took it that December as a likely time in which the ECB will reveal its latest forecast and possibly announce that it's going to extend its QE program probably for another six months if they are going to do it to give themselves a bit more time to print some more money and hopefully get to their inflation target. Eurozone inflation did hit near a two year high last week so inflation already heading in the right direction. So questionable whether this is needed but the central bank thinks their policy are working so they're continuing what they believe is a successful policy. So obviously more money printing the euros, devalues each euro that's out there pushes the euro lower. Let's just look at that euro chart while we're talking about these kind of correlations. Why is the weak euro good for the DAX? Well similar reason that the weak pound is good for the FTSE. We've got a lot of multi-nationals in these big stock indices and just a weak currency translates well for their foreign earnings. So you can see this is the Brexit range which contained just the day after Brexit has contained the euro for pretty much a similar amount of time as the DAX even a bit longer than the DAX has been in its price range. So we have this triangle pattern within the price range which we saw a nice breakdown from in the last couple of weeks and we've actually pipped below this June 24th low now. So in all of you's next layer of support would be these lows down here just above 108 and there's quite a cluster of support down in this 108 type vicinity. So you'd imagine there's a fair few profit taking, potential going along by orders in the 108 type vicinity. So if indeed we do push a bit lower from the gains that we've already had this would be a logical sticking point, this kind of price sown around 108 and obviously heading all the way down here we had a bit of a kind of false breakdown which took us almost down to 107. If we take this triangle pattern here which is quite well defined we just do a little extension of that from the breakout area. Then we've already reached the 100% extension and I can actually modify that, can I? It's going to do the trend line, is it? Ah, here we go. And here we are, the 161.8 is just below that 108 mark sort of probably in the middle of these two price points. So again, a little cluster of support down there potentially. You wouldn't really describe this whole piece of price action here as a trend. This is, this is obviously a short term downtrend which you want to try and sell bounces into downs into this support potentially but in the greater scheme of things we're pretty much in a sideways range. So until it happens, you know, my assumption is that this kind of the bottom of this price range is it's going to hold. So until it happens, I mean, until the breakout happens you've got to assume it's not going to happen if that makes sense. So mix, dumped around a bit there between indices and currencies there I think it's not a coincidence that the euro's breaking it's range to the downside and the DAX's breaking it's range to the upside. We may as well do a similar looking comparison here with the UK 100. Now this is on a short term time frame. I typically don't use the moving averages too much on the short time frames but obviously they're stuck there from the higher time frames. What we're looking at here is the hourly chart. This was the big sell-off that we had between as I mentioned here between the October 11th and 13th. We've got a pullback to the 61.8 drop down to the low again and then we're pushing back up and we're kind of struggling again at this 61.8 and while we opened higher today in UK markets we're well off the highs but now we're coming back again a bit. So definitely multiple attempts at this resistance here and you can kind of see why because this short term moving average is above the longer term I've just got the 20 and 50 period moving averages here and if we do push out to a daily chart you can see that's been the case on the daily chart for all this extension that we had. Obviously the moving averages are lagging indicators so we had the big, the Brexit drop, the rally up through the Brexit highs and at that point, once we were already at the highs you saw that the trend was starting to open up the moving averages were starting to spread and the market ticked higher and so every drop has been a buying opportunity even dropped through this first low you start to think maybe the uptrend's unwinding a bit after coming close to 7,000 well it then does find support before the next low and rallies up again. So we're still in that kind of mode and you can see that it's the 20 day moving averages which supporting the FTSE quite well but that's not to say we can't have another drop so that's when we're assessing is this drop the four taster to a new rally up? This price action looks a bit sluggish to me not much conviction there and it suggests to me that we're at least gonna roll down to the low again before pushing higher, potentially down to 6,900 again but no point in throwing darts at the dartboard let's see if there's some reaction here we're getting another day if we start pulling down through the previous days lows after reacting again then we've got some confirmation that this 61.8 is actually proving to be the ceiling should 61.8 give way then we're obviously looking for a similar thing to happen up at the 78.6 now depending on your style you obviously can be buying into the uptrend here but just being more cautious or you can just be on wait and see mode to see if we can get through that 78.6 before looking for dips to buy into the uptrend again or indeed waiting for the market to roll over if that's your expectation so slightly different look here because while with the Germany 30 we were kind of eyeing the potential for a breakout here we're looking to see if the market rolls over we're at resistance levels in both markets so typically you want to sell at resistance but obviously that only holds true until there's a breakout I'll start with indices for the time being I'm going to jump across to the US got a lot of earnings out this week again if you are trading any individual shares have a look at our weekly preview page that we've got on the blog site because we've got a list of all the corporate earnings are out this week and there's a lot of big tech companies so you know all the favorites Amazon, Alphabet which is Google, Apple of course kicking things off tomorrow so I think to some extent you know the market waiting for some sort of positive earnings surprise as a buy the buy for the S&P 500 companies earnings are expected to go up by 0.2% this earnings season over the same period last year so you know starting to maybe we've had four quarters of earnings declines in the S&P this one we're looking like a 0.2% gain so nothing really to shout home about but obviously if some of these tech companies especially with huge growth beat earnings then that's going to be a bit higher as a result so quite a potentially important week I think overall it's about a third of the S&P are reporting this week with those tech names being particularly so far it's been quite good in US earnings the banks have all beaten expectations and I just see that T-Mobile have beaten expectations one of the big US phone carriers the shares are up pre-market probably a little bit in sympathy with the AT&T deal as well so look at the chart here so I've had this little triangle in last week that we got the breakdown from bounce off support we've come off from the triangle again a couple of times we've come off the support again we're kind of so we're still in this range at the end of the day I did add this longer term trend line which is somewhat of interest and if you draw it through the closes here rather than the low connect this trend line it kind of matches up quite well with the peaks up here that we're dealing with at the moment so if this market is going to roll over it really does want to be doing it before 1800 up to the top of the range again I would suggest that that's above these trend lines of course could be a fake out above those trend lines but it's increasing the likelihood that we're pushing up into the record highs again I would say it needs to roll over in this sort of territory to increase the odds of lower prices so I've covered the indices the next thing just to have a look at here would be some of the currencies and we don't have the cash chart for the dollar index but just worth noting here but if you are a currency trader always worth having a quick check of the dollar index chart pretty strong uptrend I'm sure you'll agree this is any short term but over the past few weeks we've seen quite a steep incline in the dollar and it's now pushing into the 99 if you've got a long-term chart of the dollar you'll see 100 is obviously a big psychological number and has proved resistance in the past as well so this all in expectation that the Fed is going to raise rates after the US election this year a little bit dependent on who gets in as president the general thinking being here and if you want a bit more information on this check out our US elections page but the general thinking is that Trump obviously has a big source of uncertainty but probably if he did get in would mean the Fed might hold off in December from raising rates whereas Clinton a bit more of a certainty factor positive for stocks initially but then you do have to consider that she would probably be more of a kind of continuation of current Fed policy meaning more likelihood of a rate rise in December so US election could be an important swing point in how the things work out here but you know number of gaffes from Trump has most people expecting that Clinton is going to get through pretty easily we'll see if that rings the case one thing that I noted last week which is sort of of interest to me at least was that in terms of how people are betting on this it's a little bit obviously in the US gambling is restricted in a lot of states that's why people have to go to Vegas and Jersey City and the likes not Jersey but New Jersey so not much information on US betting but more global betting the UK included is that people are betting on the amount of money put on for Trump is way less than Clinton so Clinton has the money but in terms of number of bets Trump is ahead so that's the same thing that happened with Brexit where the so-called experts with the big money bet there would be no Brexit with the Joe public with the smaller amount of money who plays more smaller bets got it right so that's either just them playing the extreme bets or maybe having a better sense of things than the then the experts remains to be seen on a financial market sense I think you generally interpret the market up near the record eyes and a big push higher in the dollar and some recent strength in the Mexican peso as well to suggest that there's a pretty wide spread opinion that Clinton's going to get it I sort of deviated off a little bit there with a bit of an election tangent we look to the euro so I'll skip that let's look at sterling so these are the these are the way that this is the way I'm looking at the dynamics here this is obviously a short-term chart because this this is a flash crash since then we've been we've basically entered into a bit of a triangle pattern with a trend line support through here now we were breaking resistance and and holding support but as of this point we're now breaking supports and holding resistance and up here now as we approach this trend line again this this support is holding and signs this resistance is going to give way so what does that tell you that we're basically in a price range and I think for to get any kind of confidence about going long sterling the moment you need a move above above the one twenty three twenty which was the highs we reached in the in the in the days right after the flash crash you know that's when you tell you that not that you buy the breakout necessarily but you know some sustained move above it and then looking for pullbacks to to buy at cheaper prices would probably be the more conservative way of getting long cable here it's it's a bit of a bit of a stab in the dark if you're going long at this point because clearly that is a pretty significantly bearish move you know just fundamentally here with all the amount of political uncertainty I don't know how many people are really going to be going long sterling we're in kind of different circumstances now where you can't just assume sterling is going to hold its historical range you know there's many legitimate forecasters calling for parity against the dollar now that we'd love to eat you I'm not one of those but you know you've got to got to be aware of the possibilities both looking quickly at the euro sterling rate kind of interesting just from the perspective that euro is obviously pushing into the recent low here's the Brex the flash crash rather euro kind of pushing into the low so that weakness in euro dollar not just dollar strength euro weakness too because obviously the pound has been weak against the dollar it's not been the overly strong cable obviously but the euro definitely kind of declining on that ECB weakness quick look at dollar yen not a lot's been happening here since the last webinar when was the last webinar here we've done all of nothing since then you know we're basically in this range beneath 104 you know judging on this triangle you know we're expecting a breakout but that's not to say that we can't get quite a severe pullback before this triangle breakout gathers momentum so yes you know should we get some closers above these highs you know want to see some pullback opportunities up there but while we're hovering below you know if you are looking to buy at the bottom of this price range just be aware that we could get a dip back down to the 102 type currency which would be a 61.8 and would fit quite well with these two peaks in here before we've got this nice breakout so look at the triangle pattern and we've had the breakout there we've held the 100 level quite well so if you never get another pullback down here you know that to me would be a time to have some more conviction that the move higher can be sustained now let's have a quick look at oil softened up a bit in the last couple of hours so this is the daily candlestick in Brent zoomed out a bit here so you can see that it this 61.8 level you know things are looking obviously these these levels we're in place before we've reached the low but you can just see the kind of synchronicity here at the market extending down to a point that makes this 61.8 percent level important as far as support and resistance too and basically the market stored out just before those peaks before the 61.8 you know nothing's perfect and we've been in this price range for a while since again look at the moving averages can because oil has been so volatile and been quite trendy the moving averages have for the most part worked quite well so you know not in terms of giving you an early signal but just because the trend lasts for a while you know obviously in this point period of time you know where I'll put my cursor now that's a point in time which you want to be selling so even when you get that big spike up there you know potentially time sign of a changing circumstance but nonetheless the moving average is so clearly in bearish mode that you know the the the 50 day ended up being the resistance you know matching this little breakout down here and and we dropped and worked again so you know same during this period of time you know very much a selling type environment and then here when the market turned over you know there wasn't much of a base here it just zoomed higher and it's only recently that even during this period of time you've got a nice little drop you know then we've turned a bit more choppy recently but it looks like the averages are starting to spread apart this was obviously the the OPEC news down here and so the market's consolidating as you would expect it would because this level has been pretty huge this 53 you know we haven't been above it really strictly yeah it's it's July 2015 so 15 months or so a source of resistance you'd expect some sort of slowdown at that point but it it it looks like the the market's ready to push higher and that would that would make sense if if OPEC are raining in production on the shorter term chart this trend line has been working quite well so we haven't had a a close below it yet a close below it even on the shorter time frames you know if we get a little drop down here you know wait you look for some kind of drop pullbacks because I think you know that's support's held for a long time so you know once it gives way there'd be a lot of people jumping out of those long positions and then I've just got obviously got this level just above 48 is a potential area that the price could fall back to though obviously you know our price is very slightly from the futures markets but 50 is obviously got a strong level so you know depending on your aggressiveness obviously we've just talked about how the trend is it's higher and we're looking potentially for a breakout above here so you know whether you want to go against that trend and trade that breakout down is you know it's a matter for you okay and we'll just round things off with gold so obviously on the short term chart here this is the one two fifty level which has just been working very well as support and we did get the breakout above the the peak here but we've not quite made it up to the the 61.8 near one two eighty or indeed this this little bounce peak here was starting to roll over if this low gives way the market's looking pretty soft it would look like the probably one two fifty is going to give way let's pull out to the daily chart just to see where we're we're coming from on this so obviously this this support level worked well it's the round number and the low before a massive uptick in gold so it you know makes sense that it's it's holding but given this huge decline that we got you know the you know the markets looking for opportunities to sell off and if you can't even make it up to here you know we could be looking at some declines down to one two hundred again so that is about it I think that's we're just about out of time so thank you very much to everyone for attending good luck with trading this week we've also got those us tech earnings if you're interested in the individual shares in terms of data I didn't go over it in too much detail there isn't that much of interest really there's us durable goods orders but really we're probably going to spend a lot of the week waiting for UK GDP on Thursday and US GDP on Friday thanks everyone have a good one