 Welcome traders to another Tick Meal weekly market outlook for week commencing the 30th of February with me, Patrick Munley. In the US this week, it's going to be an interesting data slate with US inflation, retail sales and industrial production all released. First thing to think about is that the January activity data is going to be strong throughout the contrast between the weather in mid to late December when it was incredibly cold in the States versus a very mild January couldn't be more stark. This means there will be delayed consumption plus better weather means more people out and about which in all likelihood will lift January spending. Markets already know how auto sales were very strong and that's what will ultimately lift retail sales on its own. The shock January employment jump also implies robust demand. Manufacturing, mining and construction may also look better given warmer temperatures making it easier to do work and will lift output in general. We wouldn't really class this as a start of a new uptrend though. More noise is what is generally a softening trend given business confidence is on par with where we were during the global financial crisis all those years ago. Note to February has experienced a return to colder temperatures which could lead the correction back to more normal patterns. Nonetheless, with the Fed minded to keep hiking to ensure inflation comes down it makes the likelihood of a May rate hike in addition to a March hike more plausible. Inflation could also boost the cause for a May rate hike. Rising energy costs through January will lift the headline rate but used car prices will boost the core too. The jump in auto sales saw dealers raise their profit margins with car auction prices jumping 2.5% according to the Mannerheim data. Given the high weighting of used vehicles with the basket of goods and services used to calculate CPI, this could add a 0.15 percentage point to the month over month rate on its own. Shelter, which accounts for a third of the overall inflation basket is also likely to remain firm given the time house prices and then the new rental agreements take to show up in the data. A 0.4% month over month core print would give the Fed near-term ammunition to argue for a May raise hike. Nonetheless, markets think that these two components, shelter and cars, will contribute to inflation slowing sharply from mid to second quarter with weakening corporate pricing power also contributing to getting inflation down to 2% by the year ends. So let's take a look at the dollar index from a technical perspective. Last week we were looking for a corrected move versus that initial advance off the lows. We got that, we held the 102.50. As anticipated, we are now trading higher and testing this pivotal trend line resistance. If we can start to get a few H4 closes back through the 103.80s, then the next upside objective is going to be monthly and weekly projected range resistance, 104.80s, and then on to the prior swing highs at 105.50. At this stage, it would really take a loss of the high volume load and support down into the 101.20s to suggest, like I say, the potential for a false upside break and a resumption of the downtrend. Moving to the eurozone, pretty quiet data slate there this week. Tuesday we get Q4 GDP, narrowly avoiding a decline. More color with the second estimate will be received. We're looking for 0.1% print there. Then heading into Wednesday, December industrial production, looking for a negative 1.2% supported by easing supply issues, but the outlook does remain gloomy. And that wraps up the data in terms of the eurozone this week. From a technical perspective, Euro dollar, obviously the inverse pattern to the dollar index, we traded into our 108 target zone since in a decent sell off here. So I'm looking for a fifth wave extension now down to take us into the 106.20s below their monthly projected range sport 105.80s. At this stage, it's really going to take a move back through weekly projected range resistance at the 108 handle to suggest a resumption of the nascent uptrend. Moving to the UK, the Bank of England has entertained the possibility that February's 50 basis point rate hike might have been the last. In practice though, market sense that we should get one more 25 basis point hike in March, though the next data inputs from this week are going to be key. The words here, I think that's going to be the main focus is inflation persistence, which is what the BOE officials have said they are monitoring. So here's what's coming this week. We get jobs and wages data. Wage growth has shown little to no sign of easing, at least in the official numbers quarter on quarter annualized changes in weekly regular pay have been eclipsing 7% recently. So markets will be looking for any signs that are slowing. Laces Bank of England decision maker survey, which we know officials pay close attention to has hinted wage growth might have peaked. We then get inflation headline CPE. CPI sorry should edge lower on a near negative 4% fall in petrol and diesel prices in January core inflation should ease to though less dramatically seeing goods core goods inflation come off quite rapidly as demand fades and supply chains improve effectively a mirror image of what had helped drive inflation higher during the pandemic, but the BOE will be watching core services inflation most closely, given that it's less volatile and tends to experience more persistent trends than the goods category. Markets expect this measure to edge higher though the recent falling gas prices suggest the peak could be near energy prices have been a commonly cited reason among corporates for raising prices over recent months and then rounding out the week we get retail sales data. Real term spending has fallen in 12 out of last 14 months and I don't think January was an exception. If so it would point to modest fall in GDP through the first quarter from a technical perspective. Sterling traded up into our target zone just below 122 and we have since seen a reaction lower. I'm now looking for any move back through 120 to set up a move to test support at the 108 sorry 118 14th. Now there is the potential here that obviously we could do a double correction and get another leg to the upside before seeing a move lower. So I'd be looking for any move back into the 122 50s watch for bearish reversal patterns there to reengage on the short side giving us that move down into the 118 14th. At this stage we'd really need to reclaim weekly projected range resistance above 123 to suggest an immediate resumption to the upside. Moving to Japan obviously we have the announcement potentially this evening of the new BoJ governor UEDA who was expected to have a more restrictive policy stance however he did come out with comments suggesting that he doesn't have any immediate plans to make changes to military policy. We also this evening in Japan get Q4 GDP looking for a 0.5 print there versus a negative 0.2 solid rebound expected exports and inflation are drags. We also get industrial production final estimate negative 0.1% and then running out the data in Japan on Thursday. SEM and machinery orders clear downside risk to capex spending so we're looking for a 2.8% print there. From a technical perspective the dolly end traded into our support zone 129 80s to 129 50 and we're seeing a decent reaction higher now so I'd be looking for any move that takes out resistance here 132 90 to set us up for a test of weekly projected range resistance 134 30s and then onto those prior swing highs there 134 70s. At this stage it would take a loss of the high volume node here 128 45 to suggest a resumption to the downtrend and down under in Australia the consumer sentiment released on Tuesday crushed by price surge and rate rises no letter insight there for consumer sentiment expecting a weak print there and then on Wednesday we have the rba governor low speaking in front of a senate committee on economics and on Thursday we get employment data in Australia looking for a 20k print there there's the potential that we couldn't see something as low as 15 000 to the downside then employment rates 3.5% and expectations are becoming increasingly important with this employment data for the rba illness remains a drag but employment growth set to return flat participation should see an employment the unemployment rate hold firm and that's what the rba are going to be paying attention to then we round out the week on Friday where rba governor low speaking once again this time he'll be testifying to a house of representative committee to round out the week down under so from a technical perspective Aussie dollar whilst we hold this 68 80s I can see the potential for another corrective leg to the upside targeting a move into 70 60 70 40s from there I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side I'm ultimately looking for a test of this ascending trend line resistance coming in 67 70s and rounding out the instrument check here let's take a look at bitcoin coins rolling over a bit here I'm looking for a move now down into the 21 200 area once again watch for bullish reversal patterns there to redeploy long positions still looking for a break of these prior cycle highs 24 250 to get ultimately a test of the yearly pivot coming in 26 800 at this stage only a close back through this ascending trend channel support 20 100 area would suggest a deeper corrective pullback is underway and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 13th of February as always traders plan the trade trade the planner most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much