 Welcome traders for this week's live market analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. Just going to give it another 30 seconds here before we get going. Before I do so, can you just type a Y in the chat box if you can hear me loud and clear, and you can also see the tick mill welcome screen. Okay, so that's two o'clock UK time. First of July, first month, first day of the new month, new quarter, and second half of the year. So let's get going. Before we jump into today's discussion, important to just adhere to the risk disclaimer, views and information expressed by me here today are solely mine and not representative or indicative of those held by tick mill UK or tick mill Europe Limited. For those of you here for the first time, brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup, focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. So I basically had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing the people make and lose their fortune quite literally overnight in the markets. So I had some time in my hands. I decided to explore my curiosity for the markets has some capital to play with. And I started day training the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately, day gambling. After some early beginners luck, I wrapped up some pretty solid games. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out. And as the market phase changed, I began to average down to in losing positions, basically giving back all my gains and ultimately taking a significant six figure hit to my personal capital. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is really an understatement. I had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trade and track record. Working with my mentor for 18 months to two years was a period in which I had to not just my technical game, but also my personal game. I had a lot of experience in terms of developing a strategy that crucially sues my personality extensively back and forward testing strategies, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But I guess most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably the most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal oriented individual who was purely focused on financial games to becoming a process orientation individual. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small stream of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered annual profit returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service. And as you can see on the screen, I've been delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentioned hundreds of private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tick Mill. My other, I guess, passion project is leading trading education for a premier trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com, offering development and funding to retail trading talents. At FXcareerswap, we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing firms capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from now. Let's jump into the charts. There's a bunch to go through. I'm going to be working off the four hour time friends today. And we're going to start with the global equity venture market, the S&P 500. And we are trading into an end of this this setup that I'm we're looking at here in terms of this fifth wave extension. You're going to see this theme running through a bunch of these markets today. And when we're looking for these these fifth waves to complete, this one is actually taking shape of an ending diagonal pattern. But what we're ultimately looking for is for price to test into the wave for extension, the fib extension of this of this structure here, the 127 extension up to the 161. That gives a realistic window of where the majority of impulse legs actually completes. We also have another measuring tool, which I'll highlight in the subsequent charts. But really what we're looking for is this 127 extension of the 161. That's the window. What we've also got coming in here is obviously our ascending trend line. We tested into there this morning and had a pullback to test the pivot. We're bouncing now, but certainly I'm going to be watching for a break of this ascending trend line support. So I'd like to see prices back through 42.94 to set short positions initially targeting and move back into the midpoint of the channel here at 42.53. And then depending upon how the price actually develops, we could start to think about targets in terms of weekly range support 42.25. And then the trend line support all the way back down at 41.86. But we want to take it step by step and not get ahead of ourselves first and foremost need to see this ascending trend line support eroded. And then we can start to think about short positions in the S&P 500 into the NASDAQ. NASDAQ looking for prices to extend higher here into the 14,715 area to complete this sequence in the NASDAQ. And then again what I've been looking for is a pullback. And certainly we can see this ascending trend line support would be the primary objective here 14,455. From there we may extend the gain in the NASDAQ to new highs here because what we've got running along the top side here, if I zoom this data out, let it catch up, there we go. So we have this trend line in place, it will be the third touch of the trend line, which will take us up to that 15,200 level. And certainly from there, then I would be really looking for short positions to see a move back down really to test this break point, break out point initially back down all the way to 14,000 there. So we'll have to see how the price action develops, but certainly I'll be paying attention to any test of this ascending trend line resistance 14,700 just above with those 700 and change. And that would be the initial opportunity to fade this move, certainly while we've got this momentum divergence in place. And then we'll see how we trade, if and when we get back down to test the ascending trend line support. Dow Jones, the Dow has tested, this is the trend line resistance which I was tracking here. We tested it, got a little bit of a sell-off, pulled back into the prior highs here, we're bouncing a bit again now. Really want to pay attention to a couple of closes back below this, this trend line resistance to get excited about an opportunity on the short side. It may be that what we're going to do now is pull up and retest this resistance level here, 34,800, and maybe from there we start to see prices drift lower. Again paying attention to the fact we've got some nice momentum divergence in terms of the Dow. We've got the DAX here. DAX has this, and again another ending diagonal pattern. So what we'll be looking for with the DAX is if we can trade through here, extend this over. So we've got that 127 extension, which will be the initial target for this move higher if it plays out. So I'll be anticipating we see something like this develop, and then from there we should see the seller step back in again, especially given the significant momentum divergence we've got in play there. So keep an eye on 15,950 in terms of the DAX. Nikkei 225, still the weakest of the bunch at the moment, and there isn't really a set up as such to pay attention to Nikkei. VIX, my post of this chart earlier, the VIX is in a very interesting position if we just jump out to the weekly chart here with the VIX. You can see we're sitting on a weekly trend line back through November 2017, the third touch of that trend line, which I would anticipate will be an area where we could likely see a bit of a spike here in terms of volatility. So I'm looking for long positions, building position on prices below 1550 down to that 14 level, and certainly I think we can see an extension here in the near term to the upside. Obviously this idea about the VIX having a bit of a spike here coincides with a potential for a bit of a pullback in terms of the extra markets. I'm not, once again, not in any way shape or form, predicting a crash, just simply a tradeable correction in what is a very strong bullish trend. So let's see how things develop in VIX, but I'm on the long side of that trade certainly. This is the equal weighted dollar index, so this is the dollar index versus Euro, the Yen, Sterling and the Aussie, all in equal weight. I was tracked last week looking for this pullback into this trend line, prior trend line resistance to active support. Now we're in what I think could be the fifth wave extension. So when we're thinking about the fifth wave extension, like I said, what we're looking for is for price to test the 127 extension. So let's just draw this. So this is this is the zone that we're looking for ideally for a fifth wave to complete into. In terms of the actual wave structure here, we have, let's call this one, two, this is our three, four, and we're looking for a fifth wave to complete ideally in this window. Now another method, another tool we can use to help pinpoint this area even clearer is measuring wave one and overlaying it versus the wave four loan. And you can see there. So now what we have, we have some confidence developing here because we're not only do we have 127 extension and the 161 extension of the wave four, giving us a window between 1932-1949, but we also have an equality objective versus our wave one structure coming in at 1933. Additionally here we have daily and weekly range resistance. So we traded just into, we touched to the tick basically that 127 and we've seen a little bit of a pullback here, what we'll obviously what we'd want to watch for now to get additional confirmation. Just get rid of the access. This line, that's it. So what we can use now is a simple trend line to give us the heads up. So if we can break this trend line get through daily range support here at the 1893 level. The first indication that potentially this wave five structures is complete. Now that's going to have an implication for the effects majors. We're going to look at those in a minute. First of all, here's the dollar index, the equal weighted dollar index. I've added some time measurements in here as well. So when we're looking at again for these patterns to complete, this was our last leg to the downside. And if we measure using the FIB time extension tool that you can get on on trading view here. So it's FIB time zone. So what we're looking at here is this this basically represents two thirds of the time 61.8% retracement in our extension sorry in time versus the amounts of time it took for this to client state base. More often than not, we'll see corrective moves complete into that zone. And certainly we wouldn't want to see, we wouldn't want to see this move extend above the 100% extension in time as that suggests potentially new trainers in play. But what we're looking at here with this with this dollar now, again, we just bring in the trend line. And what we wouldn't want to see to suggest that we potentially we've got to weigh five high in place here would be that that would take out this trend line and roll over now we haven't we haven't reached the 127 extension. So what we have potentially got here is is a double top scenario, or what early way practitioners will refer to as a failed fifth, whereby we get this double top, but no, we don't have we didn't get any divergence on this last high so my, my sense is that we could see a pullback here and still prefer to see one more high here in terms of the dollar index, giving us that momentum divergence then so prices extend back up into this this completion zone that I've highlighted. That would mean that we don't make a new high in terms of momentum. The first heads up as to suggest that we are seeing this at least this initial leg off the lows complete, and then looking for a three way corrective move, ideally back into the way for low there at 90 150. We also again have that trend channel used as resistance now to act to support boys. It's a tendency to hold on the initial retest so if we can get back down into this zone. Then what I'm ultimately looking for is price to extend once more to test the equality objective versus the bigger structure. This leg here, an ABC 93 74 is what we've been looking for. And if we get into there then watching potential bearish reversal patterns to set shorts again looking for new loads in the dollar would be the play there. 10 year yields. Just drifting lower here at the moment from the highs that we saw at the end of March, again, in terms of downside objectives for this move. We have an equality objective so we tested into the quality objective and bounce pretty strongly so what I'd be anticipating now certainly if the dollar is going to pick up a little bit here is that we could see another leg higher here in terms of the yields. Now, one thing that's going to be driving that is is the jobs data tomorrow, because if if we see the jobs data come in week again a third week print, then that's going to give the fed cover. And we probably see, probably see yields roll over from here, but if we get a strong jobs print tomorrow so something significantly above consensus so consensus I think about 700k. So if we see something 900 pushing closer to a million, then that would, that would remove the feds cover. At the moment the Fed are posturing that without a job to recovery. They're, you know, the taper talk is simply that at the moment, but if we start to see a meaningful jobs recovery. And then that's taken towards going to start to shift to actual rate increase expectations and that should drive short term yields and that will have significant implications for the dollar gold. So I was looking for fifth wave loads complete so again look, this is a good example that we just removed some of this stuff so you can see it clearly. So what we have here is. This is our potential way for and let me. Just keep these familiar so that's our way for hi there at 1795. And all I've done here to gain together a downside objective for the way five is overlay the fib tool versus for way for hi there, and our target zone is the 127 to 161 extension. And we're seeing a bit of an uptick here now in gold. And so what we'd be looking for to suggest a meaningful loads in place would be a breach of this trend line resistance now. And then what we are what we anticipate because we've got this impulsive decline, we then be looking for those. Let me look at a minimum a three wave corrective pattern more often than not performing to these type of inverse in the shoulder scenarios. And then what's drawn that. So up into that way for high first three test back in here and then we'd be looking for extension to ultimately get us back into. At a minimum 38.2% retracement of the private climate more often than not. We see the 50% tested but anything in this area then would would set up the potential for at least another attempt at the lows and really we could lonely start to get excited about gold on the long side. We can take out trend line resistance now, because even that comes in, even if we extended up into the trend line, that's still within potential for reversal 60 61.8% retracement 78.6. So, but certainly the, the correction is tradable. Once we've got that initial reaction high in place, then we're looking for the next reaction low. Ideally, we see this developing five waves and then a three wave. Pullback, and then you can trade the the sea leg to the upside so keeping an eye on gold here want to see this trend line go. If we can't take out the trend line, then there is still the potential that we haven't completed to the downside yet, and what we'll be looking for then will be a move like this probably testing into the close to the 61 point. The one six one extension of the way for, and then we'd be looking again, ideally maintaining obviously momentum divergence to suggest we have a tradable low in place. So that's what I'm watching in terms of gold silver similar story really to gold again potential for a failed fifth, fifth wave here with that double bottom and look what again what's important to monitor is are we getting significant divergence and yeah we have, and we were actually now in terms of silver through that trend line resistance. So we could have a low in place here in terms of silver so what's the structure that we look for well, maybe we're going to test up here into the 2648. So what I've been looking for now with silver will be this type of pattern to develop and then we get that sea wave correction that we can look to play once we have a reaction high and a reaction low in place. And again you can use the momentum tool I have the RSI stochastic here. What we've been looking for is the next time the RSI stochastic rolls over back below the 20 level, we wouldn't want to see a new low in price. So as long as we don't have that new low in price, then we can look to play bullish reversal patterns for the quality objective versus the initial reaction structure off the nose. Crude, obviously OPEC headlines all over the place today, we're trading up into now the top side of another potential potential ending diagonal here. So let's measure up and see what we've got in terms of targets. So yeah we're trading right into that 75, 36, 76, 23. Have we got momentum divergence we have just about at this stage but is still valid. So what we again what we'll be looking for there will be reversal now back through 71 C 74 21 taken out and then we can think about a retest of 72 24. Again this is a pretty much a news driven move at the moment and but still respecting the levels in terms of identifying where we're likely to see a pause or a really fresh. Nothing to do in copper at the moment and certainly I've watched copper at this area here so this is an example of that ABC structure so we made, we made a reaction low here, we had plenty of momentum divergence. We extended higher to put in a reaction high. We then did a three wave corrected move. So you can see we have this move here in a three wave structure. So that gives us a reaction low and now what we have note when we got down into this low momentum was back below the 20. So it was very low but low 10, but we didn't make that new low in price. So that's giving you that first indication that potentially we're going to see an extension higher and what's up the target for that well target is going to be the equality objective versus this structure here. So we're looking now for a potential test of 444 90. I've got that's that trend line resistance coming in there. So we could be looking at something like this now before setting up for another attempt at the lows here. So you can see how you can start to build this out pretty methodically as to where the opportunities are, please corrections Bitcoin. Bitcoin broke. So we took out the trend line resistance from those those prior highs. We made a move through the through the resistance now we're back in testing the monthly pivot testing range sport and we're back below the 20 level on the RSI stochastic. So if we can get a bullish reversal pattern, ideally now we want to see take out 35,000 211 on the upside. And then what we can do is measure that current move here. So if we get that then we can be looking at the current range resistance really back up to 41,267 in terms of Bitcoin. The only one caveat I would suggest with this one is that technically we have made. Let's see if this tested. You can see we've tested the equality objective versus the actual spike down here. And we're seeing a sell off. So this is this is a little bit more ambiguous in terms of Bitcoin and certainly still, you know, in a down trend. And we've held that to the tick. So it's going to be a little bit more difficult there in terms of Bitcoin. We did get plenty of divergence into the low. But this is why in this instance certainly want to see this high exceeded before looking on the long side because it could be now that Bitcoin is in the first phase here of making another leg lower to complete a five wave sequence. So this is where you have to just wait for some of these key levels to go before before entering the market. Dolly Yn. So I'm looking, I was looking for the Dolly Yn to test this ascending trend line resistance here. We've got some momentum divergence developing. We're testing. We tested weekly and daily range resistance and we're seeing a bit of weakness developed. So I mean, if if we can't make a new high here and we extend, let's say back into the midpoint of the channel and we get another rotation, another attempt higher, but fail, fail to get a new high in price. But we do get momentum coming back above the the 80 line. And that could be the signal that we are going to see a bit of a deeper pull back here in terms of the Dolly Yn back looking at 110 25 would be the downside targets. But in terms of the ideal objective, what we'd like to see is the top side of this trend channel tested before looking to getting on the short side. We've also got these prior highs over here. Let's load a bit more data. So the ideal scenario would be that we actually spike there and just run the stops before before rolling over. So keep an eye on the Dolly Yn. Swissy has a nice fifth wave pattern. So we traded 127 extension to the tip. We're now getting a roll over here. And so, again, in terms of thinking about this as a trading opportunity, what we want to see now is the trend line go on a closing basis. And then that would give us sufficient confirmation that we have a wave five in place here on that 127 extension test. And what do we have down here? Lo and behold, some nice momentum divergence setting it up for us. Euro. Euros come in. Again, potential failed fifth here because the actual downside objective here. Let's bring this in. Is that 127 extension potentially the 161 where we've got weekly range support at the sending trend line. So we'll see if the Euro can break through on a closing basis, this descending trend line resistance, then we may have a failed fifth wave low in place. And then we can start to think about the Euro standing back up here and probably do something like this before looking at those downside targets again. Similar scenario here potential double bottom, because the the objective to the downside hasn't been tested. Let's bring this in. So we'd be looking for 137 27 to really complete this sequence. And again, it's got a bit of work to do here. Let's just bring in a trend line and see. So, although this, it looks bullish, although it looks bullish at the moment, let me just redraw that. We've still got a bit of work to do in terms of eroding this trend line resistance. So we're just seeing a trend line support at the moment. So we could pop up here a little bit more and then see another leg to the downside to complete the sequence before then seeing a bigger corrected move to correct this initial sequence off the highs. Similar story in the Aussie potential double bottom, but no, we don't have any momentum divergence. So statistically speaking that the probabilities would favor that we this this action, you know, we will see another leg lower here, because we haven't got that momentum divergence. Oh, well, we've got it. It's marginal, but it's what again, like I said previously with these divergences, you really want them jumping off the screen at you to give them credence Kiwi. Kiwi looks like it's going to attempt to do an ABC here. So let's let's measure this one up because this one has got potential. So the key wave was we hold this reaction high reaction low. So we can see the Kiwi now extend up into 71 36. And probably do something like this. And then looking for it still looking for no prices because we've got a downside target here on the Kiwi at 67 98. That would be the play to watch in the Kiwi if we can hold this swing low at 69 65. I'd certainly be interested in looking at short positions up into that 71 36 area. Right guys, we've been running there for half an hour. That's that's the allotted time. What I'll briefly do now is does anyone have any questions or any chart they'd like me to take a look at. I didn't didn't get a chance to review there went through some of them in a bit more detail just so you could see how you can identify these these structures and potential target zones in a numerical fashion. Equally, if you don't have a question if you type an end in the chat box so I know we're we're on the same page and good to go. Good stuff. Thanks for your time everyone and I hope you found this useful. Same time next week. Thanks very much.