 It is the start of the most wonderful week in NFL DFS. We have three podcasts across the next three days. We're going to recap week 11 right now, which will talk about a lot of guys impactful on the week, I guess the not week, the Thanksgiving slate, and also talk about the week 12 main slate. There is a lot to discuss, a lot to break down, a lot of fun performances. Let's dive on in and recap week 11 in the NFL. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the senior managing editor of numberfire.com. Brandon, it's the most wonderful week of the year. How are you doing today? I'm great, Jim. It's the true, we get the true, the true of Mansky week, back to back to back. Tom, oh, sorry. Hi, I read your joke. Back to back to back NFL podcast. How dare I doubt, how dare I doubt Brandon Gedula? Sorry, Tom Gedula. I mean, what could be better? Brandon to Mansky, I think is better. We'll go with that. Brandon to Mansky. I mean, it also clarifies what the joke is. Can we get Fred McGriff to like cut a promo for the show? Can we do that or is he? See, maybe. And now we need to be, we need to be role of us. Well, and I felt like we'll football fire the commercial, but I was going to catch a ground ball with a football between my legs. Yeah. Well, we need to be role of us, like throwing throwing I can one hop into a space from third. Maybe if I really throw out my arm trying to do so, I guess. Yeah, I was the first baseman. I had no arm. I was accurate, but I had no arm. But yeah, I mean, I guess we needed the Mansky drills. But now I can't get that out of my head. I can use Tommy Mansky drills for DFS after yesterday. Talked myself into some Kenny and Drake, which was not ideal. It shouldn't have done that. Had some other mistakes, although everyone else made mistakes too. So it didn't wind up being as bad as it could have been. But like, you know, mistakes were definitely made. We're going to break down what those mistakes were. We're going to talk about Tony Pollard going absolutely bananas, break down what that means for Thanksgiving and get you set for the week that comes ahead in just one segment first. Here is our schedule for this week on the podcast inside. You're listening to the Week 11 recap. I know, spoiler alert. Those of you already listening to this, our Thanksgiving preview will be tomorrow noon Eastern on Tuesday, live on the Fandall YouTube page and up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. We have to that breaking down the three games that Thanksgiving and the overall slate there will have our week 12 main slate preview also at noon Eastern on Wednesday. So Thanksgiving, Tuesday, week 12 main slate Wednesday, noon Eastern, Fandall YouTube page and then up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed after that. So to get those, subscribe over on the Fandall YouTube page to watch those live or watch them after the fact or also check out the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. And while you're there, if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review speaking of Thanksgiving. The Thanksgiving slate is up over on Fandall right now. Just a five dollar entry with one million dollars in total prizes. That is a lot of Turkey. That top spot nets you two hundred thousand dollars. More than one quarter of the field will also cash. So again, five dollar entry fee gets you a shot at one million dollars in total prizes, including 200 K to first place to get entered. Go to Fandall.com or download the Fandall app. Eligibility restrictions apply. Let's look back now week number 11 and break down the headliner from this week, which was Tony Pollard finally got to see him playing alongside Ezequiel Elliott and Pollard went nuts. He turned 15 carries and six targets into 189 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, snap seek Elliott twenty seven fifteen the first half. Snap rates was 63 percent in the fourth quarter and 66 percent in the first half are Pollard. So Zeke still got some impactful touches. And I thought it looked pretty good on those places. Yardsburg carry won't be high, but as a successor is very high. He was accomplishing what they wanted to do. But Tony Pollard's hitting home runs. He's hitting dingers and he looked really good. So we've seen it now. We now know at least have an idea of what this could look like. What's if you have Pollard going forward knowing he could do this even with Zeke being active? Yeah, I mean, we kind of knew that he could do it with Zeke because he's shown flashes of it. Now he's in that extended role led that you can't really look at the full game for this one because it was such a route but did lead the team with six targets. What I think is maybe more impactful even is that he had just threw three fewer routes in CDLAM. So that's that's really good involvement relative to like the other key starter within this passing offense. But yeah, I mean, obviously there is up and there has been up on Pollard. He's very good with his role. But as you mentioned, I do think that we'll still see Ezekiel Elliott be relevant, steal some short yardage carries, be efficient relative to what Ezekiel Elliott needs to do, which is pick up successful rushes, not break 30 yard rushes. As I'm saying that, it kind of reminds me of this year with between David Montgomery and Clio Herbert, whenever they were healthy, where Montgomery's wasn't breaking long rushes, but he was fairly successful by comparison. But a comp that came into my head sort of is like a healthy Deandre Swift, where there should be a lot of explosive plays. There should be a great receiving work, but maybe a little bit of a thorn in the side of someone who can come in and steal some high leverage rushes, be involved. It's not a perfect comp because offense is notably better. But, you know, we're all it's super easy to go all in on Tony Pollard. I still think there's a little bit of hesitancy to before I'm there. But I mean, for what it was, absolutely phenomenal showing. My comp would be Aaron Jones, if his quarterback were playing better. And like, because like he's going to get you, which is, which is to me like Deandre Swift when he's healthy. Yeah, I haven't seen that in so long. I know, I have no concept of what he's like. That's true. We've also never seen him with a, I don't know. I'm not going to besmirch my guy, Jared. But like, Dak was sick yesterday. And if you gave the Packers a quarterback playing as well as Dak right now, I feel like Aaron Jones would be doing this too. That's a very valuable role because even on a half PPR side like Fandal, we want efficient passing game work. That yardage is worth a whole lot. And as he showed, he does have touchdown equity as well, because he got a couple of carries on the goal line, even with Zeke being there. It didn't work out. And they eventually did turn to Zeke for one of those touchdowns because Pollard couldn't squeeze his way in, but he doesn't turn to dust the goal line, which is somewhere to Jones. He's going to have effective creative targets, which we saw as well. Pollard three out of 11 red zone opportunities in this game. That's not great, but I also don't care that much because he can do a lot else. So name that salary on Pollard for Thanksgiving. They face the Giants in that one. I wouldn't, when you're doing this, account for the fact that salaries can get fluky based on the shorter slate, where they account for like what else is available. Yeah. So we'll basically apply main slate salary concepts here. He was 8000 this week. I thought, you know, we talked about him being very relevant, especially as a bit of a pivot away if we had Zeke at back. Um, I'd probably bump him up. I think I'd probably cap it at 85. But I think that that's where I'd be with Pollard. I was going back and forth between 85 and 83 and he is 85. So fully appropriate, not like a I must jam this guy into every roster kind of salary, but a this guy is a viable stud with a non outrageous salary on a short slate. Oh, yeah, we're going to have, we're going to have Saquon, Dalvin. I know. Oh, boy, that's going to be, and we're going to like. Maybe maybe maybe Dak will just stay like 72 for the rest of his life. But really don't want to look ahead because thinking about those guys, salaries is making me realize how much Devon single digits I'll have to use. I think I'd be much or attract the nickname because this and stuff we'll talk about later on. But like I'm going to have a lot of him and I'm very upset about it. But like Pollard and 85 fully justified. I think they got that salary very right personally. Yes, whether that is the best play relative to salary. That's a different discussion. That's a different discussion. Absolutely. And we'll have that discussion. What about the rest of this offense? Because like, like I said, Dak was stupid. OK, so there were 20 pass attempts yesterday where Dak Prescott was not pressured. What do you think his completion percentage was on those 20 passes? 100 percent, 100 percent, 20 of 20. He was three of three on passes, 20 plus yards downfield. His CPOE was 21.8 percent plus 21.8 percent. I guess I should clarify that. Um, he went, he was flamethrower Dak. We haven't seen flamethrower Dak in a while. Like a couple of years up. Well, I guess before he got hurt that one year, but like. Name this hour for Dak in that same spot, because it could be a situation where you just maybe if everyone goes to Josh Allen and everyone goes to power, you can pivot and go to Dak in the passing offense instead. So if, again, assuming this was like a main slate, I'd probably put Dak at like. Eighty one, eight, eight thousand flat. Yeah, yeah, we talked about his efficiency. It's been there starting to run the ball, which is a huge vote of. They had a design run on 3rd and 6th, and I like almost like vomited out of happiness. I don't. I vomited out of happiness like decently often, but like this that was close there, too. Yeah, like, uh, I guess I don't know what the right term is, but like I love to see it's like a vote of confidence for me to see that in him, correct? But yeah, and then we know like generally who to stack them with. CD lamb in the games with Dak back has a 27 percent target share, 40 percent area share, four and a half downfield targets per game. So 10 yards downfield or longer don Schultz, 20 percent as well. When this offense is healthy, one of the one of the best in DFS, because it's a pretty narrow, you know, I know we like Michael Gallup. And I think that on a three game slate, he's going to be relevant. But, you know, great offense. Love it, love Dak, love Pollard, love CD lamb. Yeah, Schultz, two red zone targets here. He had four the past week. So he has six red zone targets the past two games. So we'll be talking about him on Tuesday. I have to correct my days of the week on Tuesday, for sure. But really fun to watch that Cowboys offense in full form. Let's dig into the injuries here from week number 11, starting with Joe Nixon suffered a concussion and was ruled out for the Bengals. So Maajai Perine wound up playing 69 percent of the snaps. 11 carries and four targets to those targets. They wound up being touchdowns. So Perine will not be a 90 percent snap guy. I wouldn't think because they had Trayvon Williams, they've got Chris Evans. I think Evans is healthy. It only used actually yesterday, but I think he's healthy. But they've got two guys there who can take away and he's not like a dominant force, but he'll get passing game work. He should get goal line work. That's a valuable role. So if Nixon, this is time, how would you view Perine in this offense? You're really trying to think of a good comp here because you're taking away basically someone who has, you know, I'll say three down ability, even though some odd, you can mix in and get a lot of passing work, but, you know, you don't just plug in some odd, you're on for Joe mix and one to one. Right. So I'm trying to figure out like what a majority snap rate with the passing game work within this offense is worth. Jamar Chase should be back from all indications. So that's going to help the offense. Um, I kind of feel like if there's no Nixon and Perine is, and this might be a bit high, but like 67 or lower, I would have a lot of interest just based on how running back tends to shake out. So where would it be where you're like, okay, he's like a 30% kind of guy for me. Where's the tipping point for you? If it's like, like 63, I'm like, I'm probably there. If it's 67 or lower, I'd still have some interest. Um, I could be a lot higher on him or a lot lower. It's hard to tell. Uh, I was thinking like 76. Oh, wow. Well, like it's a very good offense. Yeah. It's like, okay. What do you think a snap rate would be? Then maybe that's the best 75. Okay. I was thinking like 65. Okay. Well, he's 69% this one, so I know, but Nixon played 21%. Yeah, it is always important what you're doing here. It's important to do it where you adjust for, okay, they can game plan around mixing up being there. That's a very different situation. So you're fair to have like those reservations, but we've seen them rely on P round in the past. They relied on him here. It's passing game plus goal line. That is a really valuable situation on an offense. That's good. So I would think his value would be like around 76. Okay. It's 66. Um, it is a difficult matchup of Tennessee. They're a very good rush defense, especially Jeffrey Simmons having extra rest. I played Thursday, but now extra rest to go into this one. What? Just, you know, sometimes, uh, you never know. Uh, and it's, it's tough to put yourself out there and like throughout salaries because you can be way off, uh, one of the spots where you're about a thousand higher than what it actually is. And I still see the case for it. But yeah, I think it's, so like I said, it's 66. I'm going to be there. If he was 76, I would not get there. Cause Alvin Camaro was 75 this past week and I didn't absolutely adore him. So if I put pure and it's 76, I don't know what I'm doing. I think there are a lot of similarities. There's no taste in hell on the bank. I think, I just think that it's really hard for me to put a guy who is going to get passing game work and goal line work on that offense, lower than 76. So then at 66, is he an absolute right down in someone that you're basically saying, I don't comprehend how I'm not going to have him in my main lineup this week. Yeah. If there's no mix and yeah, you would be there for me. That's then like, it sounds like he's a little bit lower than that for you, which is fine. And he's, it's some Ajay P Ryan, like, yes, that's fair. You know, so I can't push back on it that much. But that's where I'm at on, I just think that role is very valuable. Not as valuable situation. McLeod Edwards, Elair suffered an ankle injury in this most of last night's game, Jericho McKinnon wound up playing half the sense with Isaiah Pacheco at 42% Pacheco though, 15 carries, 107 yards, ran 10 routes on 35 drop backs. So that's not great. The passing game work. And that's not going to change. I don't think with CEH out, they like McKinnon a lot there. We typically don't get to rush only backs and DFS, but this offense is different. And with no CEH, Pacheco is going to dominate that early down role. So is that enough to put you on Pacheco and DFS with CEH likely to miss time? So I'll do what we used to kind of do with CEH and some other backs. Like, would you use, you know, just a back on a really good offense at a low enough salary? Um, and I think for Pacheco, I kind of be there. He's really, so his snap rate is never going to be phenomenal. And his workload overall is not going to be phenomenal, but he did go out wide. You know, a few times ran some routes on Sunday in football. I was kind of watching that to see how that, how that evolved for him. Um, but he has had a carry or target on 51% of his snaps, which is a pretty elevated rate, like Nick Chubs at 55%, same as Damian Pierce. Um, Giovante Williams, my guy, our guy, 52%. Like it's a really good per snap workload. And that's fine. Um, it's going to sound really bad. And I don't, well, I guess it maybe is like a bit of a Rorschach test, but, uh, we've seen at times someone be on the low end DFS relevant toward the end of his career, not a lot of passing, but when he's on the field, he was getting work and like, and like that makes a snap rate kind of, um, misleading. And yeah, I'm thinking like Adrian Peterson, where it's like, okay, 50% snap rate is a good thing, but he's getting a 67, you know, two thirds percent workload for most guys, but on fewer snaps. So I think that's appealing, especially whenever we're going to need some, some value backs, you know, whenever we can get them. Yeah. They're facing the Rams next week. So it's a tough rushing matchup, but they're also 14 point favorites justifiably, which is wild, by the way. Um, it's justifiable. Um, I pulled up his route chart and according to next gen stats, he did want to run a wheel route and that one, that one wheel route is going to stick in my head because it's like, hmm, Pacheco on a wheel route. That sounds fun. Get a little feisty. Um, just, I mean, just five fewer routes than, uh, Jerick McKinnon. Yeah. McKinnon's like, they definitely like him more for pass blocking. Oh, absolutely. Um, but like, I think that the, the pitch for Pacheco is that he's going to play a lot in early downs and the cheese throw a lot in early downs. So that could help him. I don't think his target projection is zero. And I think that that's, that's important to know. So I would say his salary for this role in this offense is 64. Is that, that right for you? Yeah. Um, three. So. Yeah. I think the, the low, like mid, mid to low sixes is, is right. Uh, so it sounds like you're way more in on some odd AP Ryan than I say at Pacheco, which I understand for sure. Yeah. I just want the passing game work. I love it. It's tough for me to say no to that. I hear you. Yeah. We, you're higher on PRN than Pacheco too. Or do you think they're basically the same? Um, I'm, I'm a bit higher, but not substantially. So, and I guess to the point where it's like, I should be higher on PRN, but I don't think I get like 76 high. That's fair. Uh, Kaderious Tony was ruled out for the chiefs of the hamstring injury. So everyone gets to be right. Uh, he was great when he played and now I got hurt. So everyone's right. It's a good situation. He has a string cheese, hamstrings, Travis Kelsey led with 10 targets and three touchdowns because of course he did. He's awesome. Uh, but sky more finally did something. Uh, he ran just 14 routes, but earned six targets. Turned them into 63 yards. Justin Watson and MBS both had two deep targets. More had one. I'm shocked MBS had two targets overall. Uh, anyway, Watson led the team and routes run. He had four targets on 67 yards. So more didn't play a full role. And Juju Smith Schuster could be back next week. What's your view of this offense? If we assume that Tony does wind up missing time. This is one of those where there's, there's too many guys to keep track of too many, like not, I don't want to say I don't want to call them like bit players or like a family tree. Okay. So Harbin's on IR, Juju's in concussion protocol, but it didn't look good. So it's no guarantees back. Yeah, we'll figure this one out. No lie. I go through this every single season with the Giants. And I'm like, I can't remember which receivers are healthy. The good thing is you don't need to. Right. But like you need to be a little bit more, um, a little more tuned in. Uh, look, I love sky more coming out of college. I think it's profile is really fun. Uh, I need to see a bit more in terms of the route rate. It's been, you know, it, we're through a week 11. And if all these injuries led to 14 rounds, that's a bit concerning for me. Um, so am I, am I assuming Juju's out or back? Probably back, but not guaranteed. Okay. If he's back, I'll go back there. Um, he's, he's really separated from everyone else within this offense outside of, you know, Travis Kelsey, obviously. Uh, but with no Juju, no Tony, I would really need a low salary on Skymore. And if there is Juju, you say no Skymore. I wouldn't, that's what I would say. Yeah, I wouldn't bother. No, it would just be Kelsey and Juju and that's fine. Yeah. The Chiefs were really run heavy relative to expectation relative to their normal expectation, um, probably because you can't run on the chargers, but they ran, I think it was also in part because like they were down so many receivers. They, they played a lot of Noah Gray and Jody Foster. I'm just going to keep saying Jody Foster. Uh, Jody Fortson, you made it in the NFL. You had a great catch last night. You deserved to have your name said Jody Fortson. I'm sorry. Oh, yeah. Uh, what? His name is Joe. No, it's Jody. Buddy Fortson. Come on, man. Uh, well, NDS has him as Joe. Really? Yeah. That's weird. Why would they do that? Anyway, I'm like, they do have Joe Fortson, Jody. Why do I think the Jody Foster thing popped up? Anyway, Jody Fortson, um, they were using like their big dudes. So his real name is Joseph, but he goes by Jody. Okay. I support Jody. Jody's better than Joe. Um, anyway, those guys both played a lot as they went to big personnel. That's why I can't have a ton of faith in Skymore because I know that they're not guaranteed. Holy crap, Noah Gray had a 61% snap rate. My goodness. So they just went a lot of big personnel because all their guys were hurt, which makes total sense. So that's why I'm okay narrowing things down and not chasing Skymore if Juju is active and I'll still be a bit wary of him. Even if Juju is out, honestly. So, uh, Justin wants a 97% route rate for targets that do not for you. Huge eight odd. If there's no Juju, I think I'd consider him. Um, all four of us, all four of his targets were at least 10 yards downfield for an eight out of 21.1. He's also like decently athletic, um, which I, I, I like, uh, remember like digging into a lot when the bucks had all his injuries back in the day. He was one of the guys who like circled in and he's like, he's not bad. Um, so I think that if we got no Juju, I would have probably equal amounts of both. And I'm guessing he'll be higher on Skymore than Watson's. I probably wouldn't have inherently being higher in Watson than consensus. Yeah. Uh, Watson's salary for next week. He's on the main slate, uh, 5,000, that's not bad. Um, Skymore is 54. That's also appropriate. Like I think both those are appropriate and I'd be okay. Looking at those, uh, Kelsey comes in 82. That's actually lower than I thought it. I thought they might drop an 85 on us again, but Juju's only 66. Yeah. I'd love to go to Juju if I, if, if we can get to him. I'm hoping like, I hope he's healthy for his own sake. Cause like that looked bad. Um, but like also that would be a really good salary to get him. What's my homes out of these guys right here? Cause that could be a easy stack. Nine thousandth of all, yeah, whatever. Okay. Mike Williams came back from his ankle injury and then didn't, uh, left almost immediately last night and limped off good stuff. Uh, Keenan Allen is back though. And he was back, he was back, back, uh, finish of eight targets. Josh Palmer, once they get back, finally goes nuts. Cause of course, uh, 10 targets for him. Nobody else had more than three in both Palmer and Allen had more than 90 receiving yards. Justin Herbert, a bit more vertical here, 8.4 yard eight-odd. So even with Williams leaving, I think that my opinion of this passing offense went up last night, which is weird. Uh, Gerald Everett also missed this game with a groin injury. Maybe that's why my opinion of it went up. Uh, but what's a view of Allen and Palmer, if we assume that Williams out a bit longer? Yeah, like both, um, Keenan Allen, I, I feels like I was lower on Keenan Allen early in his career than most. And now it seems like I'm higher, uh, on Keenan Allen than most. I know he's not like the most explosive player, but he's really, really good at football and like that matters whenever a team has Justin Herbert as their quarterback and also not a whole lot else to throw to. Um, that's going to lead to elevated volume. He was really good last year in terms of target share game to game. So I love Allen. Um, I would get to Palmer as well. If I liked the game, it helps me, you know, we haven't really played Justin Herbert at all this year, uh, maybe early on in the season. We, we kind of got there, but, um, he's pretty fun. Uh, so, you know, I'm kind of, kind of interested. Uh, and I think I'd, I'd be willing to go like 76 on Keenan Allen in the right spots. Based on the Cardinals next week, who just lost their top corner, uh, Keenan salary is 73, Palmer salary is 68. That's a little higher than I think that gap should be larger for them. But it's not terrible. Like if I were stacking with Herbert, I'd still include Palmer, but I'd have a pretty heavy skew towards Allen at those respective salaries. Herbert's 79. I don't know what the, I don't know what the full slate's going to look like just yet, but, uh, we won't have Josh Allen on it. No DAC, um, might be facing Colt McCoy to keep that game more competitive for the entire, where's the worst? Uh, I think that's not bad. Um, we did see Echler's passing game where we'll get a bit of a ding, but we talked earlier this year about his red zone role. This is not age. Well, he had seven red zone chances on Sunday. So the red zone of fears have been blasting outer space. Uh, so I, I feel like I'm just going to embrace it with Echler and be fine with him. Um, I don't know what his salary is. He's 88. That's fine for his role. Um, that's not a passing game work with Keenan being back, but he's fine. So no real objections there. Justin Fields was favoring his last shoulder during the second half of Sunday's game. He was getting it evaluated after, and it sounds like there's a decent chance he doesn't play this week. He took a lot of hits and that's kind of the risk with running this kind of kind of offense that could impact fields willingness to run. Even if he winds up playing, I was leading, uh, Courtney Cronin in a piece in ESPN up this morning and apparently fields didn't scramble at all in the second half after scrambling five times in the first half. Seems like that stuff added up that could, um, negatively impact this offense, even if Fields plays David Montgomery, solid role for him in his first game with no Clio Herbert 79% snap rates, 17 carries, three targets, 121 yards. So where are you on fields with his injury? And how are you doing Montgomery with and without fields? Yeah. So with fields, he's already been talking about his legs being tired. If he's now, if he now has the shoulder seems not good enough to yeah, you know, put him through the grinder, uh, and, and make him, you know, carry the ball time and time again. And frankly, I like Justin Fields as a player, but passing has already not been there, uh, in terms of, again, he's one, one 200 yard game is maxed out at 208 yards, uh, passing. So if you take away part of the, the rushing, you know, you could cut it in half. He still have nine carries if we went based on last week, but, but he's scoring at a really unsustainable rate. I would have a really hard time playing fields, you know, at 85. If he's dealing with such heavy injuries and then for Montgomery, you could make the case. Yes, they'll lean on Montgomery more, but the offense is going to get much worse because the team can be efficient on the ground because Justin Fields is so good on the ground. I would assume Montgomery's salary bumped up substantially from 62. Yeah. If there's no fields, I don't know if I could really play him above 7,000. Correct. Part of the thought process with Montgomery was, okay, it's a rushing quarterback. That's good for him. It opens more rushing lanes and they're more efficient. If you take away both those things, it would, I believe Trevor Simian is still a backup and it'd be a touchdown Trevor Simian revenge game. Just throwing that out there. Sorry. Did you know this? Um, I think that Montgomery would be like 66. In my mind, if there were no fields, if there is field, 72, I'll go with 75 against the jets. That's tough. I think that that's tough. He's going to be an optimizer. Love though. Oh, at 75 even. I think so. If you can just add like market share to his, his rushing and take away from fields. That's bad. I, I bet the jets minus four. I didn't learn my lesson from yesterday. I'm a dummy, so I hate money. Um, but I think if we, if we get whatever the jets do at quarterback versus Mike White against Trevor Simian, oh, Super Bowl, baby, like over 10 points. I have red zone now, but I feel like I would try to make it be that only, only that game on my TV. If it's Mike White versus Trevor Simian. Sign me up, baby. I'm in. That's all I need. Matthew Stafford left Sunday's game with a head injury. Sean McVeigh did not confirm after the game whether Stafford was in concussion protocol or not. We were crossing this offense off, even when Stafford was healthy, um, we can cross him off an ink if he's out. Right. Yeah. Nobody had more than 45 yards here, um, other than two, two out. Well, who ran one round and had to realize that. Do you know why I didn't realize that? It's because I didn't dig into this team because they're stupid and they're across off. Yeah. I just want to, again, we talked about like last week entering the slate, like making sure that there weren't teams that we were, you know, crossing off, being a little bit too dismissive of, um, this, this couldn't be a better example of like, take Cooper cup off the field and it doesn't make these guys relevant. It just hurts. Yeah. How did they score 20 points? I know that they had the two, two touchdowns, but like, that's weird. It's, it's weird. How did the, the Saints give up? That's the better question. How did the Saints give up 20 points? I guess dad of course out, but like still. Bad. Uh, Kyle Pitts went to the medical town with a knee injury in the third quarter and did not return. Still had the team with five targets. That's a depressing sentence. Uh, nobody else had more than three. That's worse. Um, in the one games, Pitt missed, Pitts missed. London had seven targets. Uh, but this offense could also just get downgraded if Pitts is out because he's a good football player. Would you be willing to go at London if Pitts is out of the equation? Uh, I mean, you could give him like, you could sneak him some target share, uh, projection and it's, it's still not going to get up to like nine. Right. That's really difficult. This team just does not want to throw the football. It is, it is increasingly clear. Uh, I, I think at a certain point, you're, you're just capping your lineups. Like, how does Drake London get to a hundred yards aside from having like a 40 yard catch? Like, I don't know. It just doesn't seem like it's likely. So yeah, I think I, I gotta be out. Who do they play next week? Washington, who's playing really well, which makes it a lot easier. Yeah. So that's not a game I want to stack. So even then Drake, really surprised by Jaylin Warren suffered a hamstring injury for the Steelers. He was ruled out for the game. Nashi Harris back from the dead 93% snap rates. He turned 20 carries and six targets into 116 yards from scrimmage. Nashi had not topped 89 yards until last week. 99 there, 116 this week. So Nashi finally getting some effectiveness may go back to being a feature back. Are we actually considering Nashi Harris once again? So things are better. Uh-huh. It kind of seems like, so since they're by, he's at a hundred and seven and a half scrimmage yards per game, 75% snap rate, actually rushing over expectation per carry, not substantially. So point yet as long as career rush last week, it's like 36 yards. Yeah. Um, it seems like, I don't know, I don't know if it's the buy. I don't know if it was the talks of like, Hey man, like you might lose your job. But like he did a foot injury in the preseason. Maybe it was like actually hurting him. I don't know. Well, yeah. They were talking, I guess he had like a mold in his foot that like kept things in place. And so he, you know, early on was exceptionally inefficient. So maybe he is just getting healthier, although within this offense, like we still wouldn't have really been there. This is a really difficult one because he could be a featured running back, just within a bad offense and not necessarily able to make the most of his opportunities. So I'm not going to cross them off. Yeah. At this point, if the salary is right, the question is like, hello, does that salary need to be before I'm being dumb? And I'm thinking like 67. That's what I thought to exact same number. It's like there are obvious limitations, but it's better now than it was. You, we were talking about this before and I was like, I needed salary to be $500, like $500 to, to use him. That's no longer the case because he can actually score points. So it's better than it was. They're on Monday night against the Colts, very good rush defense. So I wouldn't get super enthusiastic for the single game slate, although outside of JT, who are you getting pumped for in that one? But the defense is, I guess, I don't want to watch that game. I don't want to watch that game. Maybe, I don't know. Yeah. Yeah. Bummer, no to finish on for the injuries. Wondale Robinson suffered a torn ACL Sunday. He'll miss the rest of the season. That stinks. Wondale's a fun player. Like we weren't getting to him in DFS, but like he's a fun player. Robinson led the Giants with 13 targets, despite leaving early. Darius Sladen had 10. The only other Giants with more than three, only other Giants, more than three with Saquon Barclay, he had five targets in the two games they played without Wondale. So in Shepherd or Cadarius, Tony Sladen has a 22 percent target share with 48 percent of the air yards, 13.9 yard ADOT. So we know this passing offense has its limitations, but where are they going to go, man? How confident are you and Darius Sladen given the Wondale Robinson injury? So I guess I should probably point out that this might sound a bit similar to the Drake London situation where it's like, where else are they going to go? But the Falcons are not going to go to any receiver because they won't throw it. The Giants are not that bad with with with their passing numbers. I think Sladen, you know, maybe like a historical Brandon Cooks, just a guy who can get like a 30 percent target share and an offense you don't love, has some downfield views. I was expecting to be offended by that, but I wasn't. I mean, Brandon Cooks has been good. No, I was offended by besmirching Brandon Cooks. I thought I used to love Brandon Cooks. Yeah, like, no, I think that's actually kind of OK, like a lesser version. But like, I think that's fine, fine. Yeah. And like, we've seen cooks in those kinds of spots be like sixty seven to seven thousand. I'd have a bit of a hard time getting there. But if Sladen's like sixty four, sixty five, I'm usually never playing receivers at sixty four and sixty five because it's right on the brink of like better players whose roles have changed for the worst and they're not coming back or guys who have over performed. Alan Robinson. I think Sladen would be like a bit of an ally in that regard. But I'd have interest. And on the Thanksgiving slate, Sladen's going to be someone that we're pretty into. It's exactly sixty four. Sure. They typically don't use Trayvon Diggs as like a shadow guy. They will in certain situations, though, and I wouldn't be shocked if they did here. Now, that's not like, oh, you cross off Sladen because that like Diggs is very aggressive and that can still lead to yardage. But I wouldn't be shocked if you were to follow him around. I think sixty four is fine. It gets down to one point with these salaries today. Yeah, you're cooking your. We made this a competition, which we shouldn't. I can't handle that. You'd be you'd be beating me. But also, we're not trying to predict the salary Brandon. Maybe it's Fandall that's nailing. Love, Fandall, Fandall, great job. It's almost like Sladen Sladen, too. Yeah, better. You should have a better catch rate moving forward. I mean, shitty. Yeah. Consider the factors that are leading to a lower catch rate than expected. Brandon, consider those factors. Danny Dimes just dropping dimes. Not. Yeah, I think sixty four is fine because we need the yardage upside. He's proven that he has that. He's going to get down if he'll work. They're playing indoors. That's totally fine. I'm not going to Kenny Galladay. Maybe Tanner Hudson. No, he got his rate cut. His his rule got cut down last week because they decided to go to Lawrence. Cajer didn't realize moved to Tide. Seever. But apparently they moved into tight end. So, yeah, this week. Oh, wow, Hudson got dusted. Cajer played seventy two percent of the snaps. My goodness. Yeah, he ran thirty one. Thirty one routes. Maybe we have to lower Cajer on Thanksgiving. It's in the note sheet, man. Is it? Yeah. I didn't read the notes. Those are your Isaiah. Isaiah Hodgins ran twenty seven routes and Galladay ran twenty. So Cajer did have like a very long preseason touchdown for the Jets back in the day when he was still a wide receiver. Is he tight end? No, he's. Oh, no. He's received relative on Fandall. Ah, no, ah, no. Can we like contact someone? I wanted to be tied in eligible. Please, for my family, let him be tight end. Oh, well, OK, let's dig into role changes and go all the way back to Thursday because Christian Watson, another multi touchdown game on Thursday, he scored twice on six targets with forty eight yards. Two of his targets were deep. Three were in the red zone. High leverage stuff. The Packers, three more due to a negative script. But Watson was super involved early on. So there are downsides to this offense, but the production should keep him involved, even if they're not super passive. The Al-Nazar at eleven targets, Randall Cobb came off IR with six targets. Of course, Romeo Dobbs here, Aaron Jones at seven. So Watson, not the best target share, but he's productive and that does matter because it could lead to more usage in the future. So what's your read on Christian Watson after Thursday night's game? Yeah, it seems like Rodgers likes him. It's willing to go there over the past two games, which basically factors in an up and down performance in terms of market share for Watson, but like a steady share for Lizard. They're about the same in terms of target share. The performance in terms of catch rate definitely favors Watson over Lizard. And it's not like it's just bunny targets for him. Nineteen point five year at ADOT, a lot of downfield work. So we've been open to Al-Nazar in the past. He gets more downfield work than he should. I finished the sentence for you. Then some people might think, I guess, I'll finish it that way then instead. But yeah, down to work. They should. I just need to I need to keep the breaks pumped a little bit with Watson because he's scoring in an elevator rate. There is. Yes, he was really slow. They do not want to. They do. They don't want passing volume. Yeah. So I was trying to think and we're going to talk someone who probably fits this a little bit more specifically. But I'm. It almost feels like an A.J. Brown situation where it's like it wouldn't use with the Titans. Oh, OK. Where it's like, OK, he could get like eight targets and score twice, get a lot of downfield chucks. But other than that, there might not be a whole lot there. So I'm kind of waiting for like the bottom to fall out with Watson. So basically just volatile. Yeah, OK, but on a team that specifically doesn't really want to run plays and is OK, running the ball a bit more than they think that they are. I can buy that. I think that's like it. You're not saying he is A.J. Brown, but you're saying similarities in that like he has a path to upside but has a lot of volatility. I think I can I can buy that. I used to be afraid of not playing A.J. Brown. Yeah. And I have to talk myself into playing A.J. Brown when he would get like and I'm like, I'm projecting for like six targets. Yeah, I'm going to play him. And it feels really, really weird and wrong. Yeah, but give me a seat. Is he on the main slate? No, they're on Sunday night playing the Eagles and A.J. Brown. Yeah, so. So let's talk about the Eagles and A.J. Brown, because we saw them in the first game without Dallas Goddard Eagles, super concentrated targets. Devontae Smith had nine targets, A.J. Brown at seven. Both guys had a 30 percent target on that. Nobody else had more than two targets. Dylan Hurts struggled, though, was not super efficient on his 28 drop backs. They were pretty run heavy. So offense struggled, but very concentrated usage. What's your view of this passing offense with Goddard set to miss at least three more games? Yeah, pass rate over expectation of minus 14 percent. That's tough. Season average is a minus 2 percent. You know, not the most pass heavy team by any stretch, but they really scale it back in this one. You don't love to see that, but you love to see 30 plus percent target shares for guys who actually make a difference. So we're basically just seeing, you know, as we both sort of predicted, Dallas Goddard's workload gets distributed to everyone else, A.J. Brown, Devontae, you know, maybe a sprinkle of that, but they're not going to go backwards by any means, and it's not going to elevate anyone else into the conversation. So I don't really view them that differently because their workload's not going to be substantially better or worse without Goddard. I guess it makes the offense maybe a little bit worse because Goddard's really good. Yeah, I think that's an important thing. Yeah. So then do you need their salaries to be scaled back, including Hertz? No. I think that the bump in predictable volume offsets the loss and efficiency for the offense. Hertz, his salary should come down a bit. Like he was 88th this week, I would say 85 is probably better. Because it makes his path to a ceiling more narrow. And I think that matters. I agree. If you're playing the single game slate on Sunday, I would note that Jack Stoll was, I thought he'd be a blocker, but he was there passing you tight end. He ran 20 routes. My boy, Tyree Jackson, ran two. Grant Calcuttaire got called for holding and ran five routes. Jack Stoll is a blocker, but he's running routes. I don't think I'd use him on the single game slate still, but if you want to go to tight end, he'd be your guy. Did you yell at me on Thursday about? For disrespecting Tyree Jackson? Yes. Okay. I just wanted to make sure I remembered that right. The XFL's greatest quarterback of all time, Tyree Jackson, not PJ Walker. Yes. I forgot that he played quarterback in the XFL. I knew he played quarterback in college, which is why I like him. I forgot he played in the XFL. I thought his transition to tight end was earlier than that, but. Some fan you are. I know. I think I played him in the XFL when we, back when I, we hated ourselves. Cordero Patterson snap rate did scale up in week 11, played 51% of the snaps to the Falcons. Thursday, he played 37%. Tyler Algier did still out snap. Patterson, space, what happened is I cut off Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams. Patterson had 10 carries. Algier had eight. Patterson had both of the red zone rushes by running backs. So Patterson snap rate is higher than it was, but it's still very flawed. He's putting a lot of work with Algier. It's not going to be a pass catching role because you can't catch passes they don't throw. He could return to kick for a touchdown. Although it's, I'm assuming not a revenge game next time they play. So he won't return to kick for a touchdown. So is this enough here for you to buy back into Patterson? I don't think so. I'm already always skeptical on Patterson. I think Algier basically, I think the real question here is, do you think because Patterson came back on a short week when he finally came back had the snaps a bit down, they extended, do you think that's a trend and it's going to continue up? Or do you think this is what it is moving forward where Algier and Patterson basically have a 50-50 split? I think Algier played his way into a 50-50 split here. I agree. I think that's also kind of just what they want to do. So I don't know what this team wants to do or should do, but they should. Maybe one. I'm sorry. They're tied at the box for first in the NFC South, aren't they? But should they be? Yeah. No, sorry. There are a half game behind the box because the bucks are five and five because they don't have to buy and the Falcons haven't. I mean, Marcus Marriott is a half game out of the NFC South. He's half game behind Tom Brady, of course. Of course they can do it or they won. That's true. Okay. Meculpa, maybe? We talk a lot about Devin Singletary on the show. I call him Devin Singletar digits. Might need to retract that. And it's not always glowing what he does, but Singletary does now have double digit carries in four of the past five games, including 18 and week 11 against the Browns. Even with James Cook getting 11 carries on his own, Singletary was the guy. He had a 73% snap rate. He ran 13 routes to Cooks 3. Also had a lot of red zone work. I think he had eight red zone chances. So I think I'm retracting the nickname. I think he's no longer Devin Singletigits. He might be back to Devin Singletuddy. Is he back? Can I retract this? Go back to my guy? I mean, last year we liked him a lot. I know. We called him DoubleTuddy. Yeah. Look, I like him. I think one point. He had nine out of 14 red zone chances. He's pretty sick. He had not had more than a 36% rated entirety. He's 64% on Sunday. Pretty sick. Yeah, I mean, so we fought over Singletary early on in the year. You were proven right. So. At the time. At the time. Not long-term. So I don't really think we need like a mea culpa here. Okay. I'm getting rid of the graphic that said we're sorry, Devin. If you're watching YouTube, there was a graphic that said we're sorry, Devin. And we're tracking it. No apologies. I guess maybe I deserved to give a mea culpa for you. Maybe it was like a mea maxima culpa, but I think overall we're fine. We're fine changing our opinion here. I was kind of like, we talked on Slack. We both mentioned that we were considering Singletary this week. Okay. This is a do as I say, not as I do. I had exactly one line up at Devin Singletary. That's terrible process. Don't do that, but I did do it. I shouldn't have more given the amount of Kenny and Drake I had because I'm a moron. So I don't know how much of this was played into by the fact that, you know, Buffalo had really weird travel issues. They, you know, Josh Allen probably still not a hundred percent with that shoulder probably. So I had that in the philosophical stuff. If we want to talk about pass rate down there or we can just talk about it now. So I never know what we should, they've been run heavy since the Josh Allen elbow injury. They were at 52% early down first half pass rate this week. They were 48% last week. Whereas they were 67% before Josh Allen heard his ankle or his elbow. Those are two very different things. Although the elbow is kind of like the ankle of the arm. Anyway, no, it's not, that's a lie. Okay, whatever. So Singletary has benefited Gabe has been fine. Diggs kind of weird yesterday, but he was great in week 11. So I think that like Gabe and Diggs still have amazing ceilings, but this hurts their odds of reaching it, I guess. I don't know. What's your read on them? I know you even know them in game blade. We can just talk about them here too. Yeah, so their pass rate over expectation was a minus 5.6% on pass and run plays this week. That was their first week below zero all season. It's about 15 points lower than their season average. So it was a huge deviation. I don't know again how much of that factored in based on the injury, the travel, but also a team you can run on, right? That's probably somewhat part of it because it wasn't just Singletary getting, oh all of a sudden he got 28 carries. He had 18, James Cook had 11. So they were just a bit overall more run heavy as a team. It wasn't just Singletary completely breaking out and taking over the backfield. Now I'm not saying that James Cook is on par with Singletary. Singletary snap rate has always been good. It's just been the workload in the production, the opportunity for Singletary. So I think the arrows up on Singletary, I do think that eventually the pass rate will go back up when it needs to. Because again, we saw the pass rate be fine, relative to expectation last week, whenever it sort of needed to. This week, short week against Detroit, I would not be surprised if Singletary has another heavy workload, but I also think that James Cook would factor in. So I think I'm just kind of bumping up Singletary, bumping down Josh Allen a bit and therefore bumping down Gabe and Diggs in terms of the probability that they truly erupt. Name me a salary on Singletary on Thanksgiving against the Lions. So difficult, because we're accounting for, we're accounting for the matchup as well. So I could easily get out over my skis with this, but I'm trying to account for the fact that they're playing the Lions. I'll say 72. Okay. I thought 69, he's 69 exactly. Okay. So typically if it was a neutral matchup, I'd have said like 69 or seven. Yeah, yeah. So. So typically if we are right at salary, it means we're not gonna be like super, super in on that guy. I'll probably want to be in super, super in on him because he's an appropriately salary to value play with a path to a good game. On a short slate, we're all need to say salary to get to Saquon and Pollard, et cetera. So. Yeah. I'll probably wind up there. I'm sorry, Devin. We're back on you again. This is once again a Devin Singletary podcast. Yes. I have, I take no pleasure in reporting this. Withershot Bateman on IR, DeMarcus Robinson had a huge game on Sunday. I know he's your guy. He finally had more than 50 yards in a game for the first time in like a decade. So. Now you need to make a call for it. I'm not gonna do that yet. He led the Ravens with nine targets. He had both the deep targets and heavy wins. Devin DuVernay just one target despite playing a ton of snaps. Cardio for Devin. Good for him. We don't need to apologize to that, Devin. With Mark Andrews back eight targets of his own. So he was involved like normal, but Robinson still had room for a big role. Robinson has played pretty well recently. What's your view of him going forward now that we know that Bateman is done for the year? Yeah. So as you mentioned, just the two deep attempts, which are 16 plus yards downfield, but 11 downfield attempts, which I have as 10 plus yards, five of those for Robinson, four for Andrews. Nothing, one of those is like, better than the other, but a lot of intermediate passing, which is. Non-bunnies. Yeah. If we scale that into like less wind, that's promising. His ADOT this week, 12, no, 9.2. So again. Yeah. Not substantial, but pretty nice. You know, DuVernay just the one target, but it was behind the line of scrimmage. I'm not banking on the efficiency to be what it was. He caught all nine targets. But, you know, we dabbled with Devin DuVernay when he had a role of being featured. I don't really know what the difference would be here, aside from maybe the rushing is not there for Robinson, but. I think Robinson probably has this. My gag reflex is like triggering. He has better yardage upside than DuVernay. Yeah, maybe. He does. Yeah. So 11-game main slate helps get us a little bit of extra value. But if he's in the 5,000s, I don't really know how I wouldn't get some shares of that. I'm also gonna stack the poop out of that game if there is no wind. They're facing Jacksonville. It's a 45 and a half point total. Pump it up, baby. Pump it up. He's 62. Why? That's appropriate, but I'm annoyed that it's appropriate. Yeah, that's a tough one. That's a tough one. Christian Kirk is 77. Maybe I won't stack this game. I'm sad now. Well, we'll figure out. I guess we gotta do two salary scrolls. What's EDN? That's fine. That's what I was gonna say, but I don't wanna get too far ahead of ourselves. What's Lamar? I'm just gonna keep the game. 82, okay. Let's party Andrews. What's this game? I'm back in. Just when I thought I was out, they put Lamar and 82 and I'm back in, baby. I think 62 is fine for Robinson. It's not like a, like if Darius Slayton were on the main slate and had Chuffin Slayton at 64 and Robinson 62, I'd probably go Slayton, but it's a discussion. Yeah, I would too. Okay. Traylon Burks, nice role for him on Thursday for the Titans. His snap rate was low, but he ran a route on 21 of 32 drop backs. He earned eight targets on those 21 routes. It seems good. He had two deep targets, one in the red zone. Turn that into 111 yards. Ryan Tannell has been playing better than I've given him credit for this year. Is there enough here for you to consider Burks in the right spots? So the true A.J. Brown minus here is Traylon Burks. If you look at the past two games, the snap rate's still not there for him. The route rate is a bit better. So he's at a 71% route rate despite a 52% snap rate in that sample. Seven targets per game. Some downfield work, not as much as you might think because he did catch some downfield stuff on Thursday. I think it's like, I feel like for the upside but also the downside here, he's got to be like in the mid-sixes. Oh, I was thinking high fives. Okay, I was thinking like 64. I was thinking like 58 personally, which is like not bad, but it accounts for the downsides. He is 59. Okay, fine. Yeah, I think that's fair. I think maybe I was, I'm a bit higher on the ceiling than that, I guess. Maybe, yeah. Yeah, it's just like, it's hard for me to ever guess. Yeah, because you brought up Burrow on Thursday and I dismissed you. I should apologize to you for that. He was in the perfect lineup, of course. So, 59's fine, I think. I just worry about teams that don't wanna throw. Like they're not as drastic as other teams are. Let me see here. So this will, I don't know if I'll include that. I'll figure out what it is with Tannil later, but like, you know, I think that's fine. He'll be a value play worth considering on Sunday, for sure, I think. The commander's been with the JD McKissick for a few weeks now, but just play some on IR. And even though they were in a positive script the entire game Sunday, Antonio Gibson kind of featured 67% snap rate with Brian Robinson playing the other third of snaps. Gibson 18 carries and three targets. He had four out of seven red zone carries. Robinson had 15 carries, but ran just five routes. Gibson ran 19. So that's pretty major bucking of expectations for me with Gibson playing that much in that script specifically. Is it enough for you to be on Gibson in DFS or no? They play Atlanta next week and Atlanta turned Deontay Forman into a league winner. So that's a bit appealing at least. Maybe a salary. So we know if we're like, cause like it'd be super high then it changes everything. Yeah, I don't think I could play Gibson if he's above because of the matchup and the fact that he can get receiving work. If he's above like, I'd go 68. Yeah, I feel hypocritical because I was slobbering over Samaj P Rine because he'll get passing game and goal line work. And Gibson got both on Sunday. I'm just not sure if it's, if I'd project him to get both going forward, whereas with P Rine I would. So I'd P Rine at 76. I think 69 is appropriate for Gibson. He's 61. Oh my goodness. So the good thing is like, you can get points in a hurry with the kinds of touches he gets. And I think that's encouraging for me. I think there's room for his role to scale back from what it was in week 11 and for him still to hit whatever our value threshold is at 61 because the matchup's so good. I don't think there's a situation where the Washington played from ahead and gave him a 67% snap rate and then they played from ahead next week and it's Brian Robinson playing 70%. I think Gibson's role is fairly secure. My question to you now is, and I'm assuming it's still P Rine but P Rine at his salary of what 66 or Gibson at 61. So if we get P Rine I would go P Rine but Gibson's in that tier. I think at a certain point for certain players you have to factor in the matchup and one is basically as hard as it gets and one's about as easy as it gets plus 500 in savings. I think Gibson's a borderline right down for me at that salary. I already run it down. Because I think there's room for that to scale back and for him still to be a good play. Yeah, I agree. I think the other takeaway is we're gonna be able to use value backs in this slate. Even if we don't get P Rine without Nixon we're gonna have value via Gibson. You could consider Pacheco at 63. I'm less enthusiastic about it knowing that we have Gibson down there but he's a write down for me. I think that's a really good salary. And we're not ahead to the main slate yet but we wanna have JT on the main slate. No Aaron Jones, no Dalvin, Saquon, Pollard. But we do have an other superstar running back such as Patrick McHones, Travis Kelsey, Lamar Jackson. I heard the Devin Singletary thing. I was gonna say Devin Singletary. Superstar running back. He accused me of not listening to you but I hear you when you put, you try to slip these things in. Such as Devin Singletary and Jamal Williams. Oh gosh, I forgot about that. Do you know Deandre Swift had more red zone chances than Jamal Williams on Sunday? He had four, Jamal had three. He just happened to score it all three. And someone very invested in Deandre Swift. I did know that. Okay, I think Robinson's a write down in 61. Gibson. Sorry, what did I say? Robinson, Gibson, thank you. They're all sons. Anyway, we are all sons. Come on son. Those of us who are, yeah, exactly. Okay, with Jerry Judy, not playing the Broncos, spread things out. As expected, Cortland Sutton had seven targets for 80 yards. Six other Broncos had between two and five targets. None of them had more than 60 yards. There was just one red zone target for this offense. They scored 16 points against the Raiders. What? This is the worst team in football. Yeah, they've had a lot of good matchups this year. They've done nothing with them. Greg Dulsic, five targets, 30 yards, 18% target rates. Even without Judy, can you use anybody here? No. Like I'm sad, Cortland Sutton's a really good football player. And I'm sad about this. Yeah. I mean, he was fine for DFS, 80 yards, whatever. Yeah, 25% target share, 80 yards. I just feel like if you don't have Judy, but you do have Cortland Sutton, give him like a 35% target share. What do you have to lose, right? Like you haven't scored more than 23 points all season. Well, okay. So you've been talking to me about this philosophy of like, oh, if it's like two terrible court practices about the under always. I was like thinking about that with Mack Wilson and Zach. Mack Wilson. No, I'm sticking with it. Mack Wilson. It sticks. They're the same person. We just don't know it on the Mack side yet. They're facing Carolina next week. How does that game score points? Well, apparently it's supposed to score 35 and a half. Like that's laughably low for 2022 NFL season. But I don't know how these teams score that many points. I have a model that projects out like game wide offensive efficiency. Like the two teams, like the sum of their efficiency, basically, I've never seen a negative number until now. This doesn't include week 11 yet, where Baker maybe feels like negative 0.46, passing unexpected points per drop back. And Russ, I can't, I can't assume he was positive. And after the opponent adjustment, it'll probably be even worse. Like, are these the two worst offenses? Let me check. They're not, I don't think. Okay, offensive power rankings, 2022 only. Okay, Denver's 26, that seems high. Carolina's last New England is second to last. Mack Wilson. Yeah, look, like points per game is not a good metric. It's very misleading. It's very susceptible to flukiness. I guess over like, as long as the team's relatively healthy by this point of the year, you can kind of trust it, but like at a certain point, they might be underperforming expectation, but if you can't score 23 points, like what are we doing? Great question, I don't know. On the Raiders. At home. On the Raiders. And also Gino gets them next week. What's DK's salary? I'm just gonna keep looking at these. DK's 72, that's fine. Rocket is 74, that's also fine. Up Gino, 76. Okay, Gino's never played for the Raiders, right? He played for like everybody else, but I don't think he ever played for the Raiders. No, I think so. Shame we can't figure that out. He did not. I'm looking it up now. He feels like a Raider. He should have been a Raider. That seems like a mischance. Anyway, okay, the Broncos are done. I'm sure the Raiders would like to have them now. Correspond. Anyway, let's go to situations to monitor. What else did you pick up on this week? Yeah, not a whole lot, because of all the injuries, and I think we covered everything, mostly everything relevant. Jonathan Taylor's snap rate did come back down a bit. 76% this week, but still good, still looked good. Yeah, Dion got some two-minute work, and that was the key catalyst behind the snap rate being lower. So I would take the passing game expectations for JT and reduce it like 10%, which is something, but not huge. Yeah, still don't love to see it, but it's possible. Not a key changer. As you mentioned, entering the week, Deontay Forman was not a lock to have a huge snap rate as a big underdog. 41% of the snaps with Chuba Hubbard getting 37%, so Hubbard scaled back up, Irene Blacksture 20%. So Forman, not really the guy who we, some people maybe thought he was against the Falcons specifically. I'm just saying. Gabe Davis. Well, you're Denver next week, so they should win. He's gonna have 19 carries for like 67 yards and two touchdowns. That means they have to score twice. I don't think they can do that. I'm always nervous about Gabe Davis just from a sheer volume standpoint, but he does have at least seven targets in three of the past four. We're always high on him. Like it's not a, I don't play him, but I think the fear is a little bit lower even though we talked about the rushing here. You're referring to the fear of his like floor, correct? Not the fear of missing out? Yeah, pure floor of like, like I'm more likely to play him in a head to head. Well, I'm still not there, but like he was an absolute no for like a head to head. Correct. Now I think he's getting there. And not that it's super relevant at all. We just talked to, we just ragged on the Broncos, but the Tavius Murray did outs that Melvin Gordon, 50% to 45%. So like even on small slates. Gordon's fumbled again on the goal line. He did, because not only did he fumble, but like it went backwards, it went like five yards backwards, which is somehow much more embarrassing. And then Chase Evans got hurt, but like how badly did Nathaniel Hackett want to punt Melvin Gordon in the river? Like he wanted to backstrip him. The mean man punted Melvin Gordon. Yeah. So I mean, like Gordon at least had been playing a majority of the snaps, getting passing game work, but like even that's complete, complete dust to me. Yeah. I'm just, these are monitor situations. Yeah. I mean, I'm talking about the Lions. So my only one is a DJ Char came back, didn't play a lot of snaps in his first game off IR, 16% snap rate, a Monorai, St. Brown. You said two touchdowns for a Monorai. He had three times got tackled inside the five. So I'm going to count that as a win for you. Well, it's all going to hit on Thanksgiving. It's XTD if we can have, it's World Cup time expected goals. XTD was like probably 2.74. So that's, that's a win. I'm going to put that a win for you. Cleef Raymond still played above DJ Chark, still dusty. Brock Wright, the primary tight end with a 75% snap rate, but his route was 50%. So given we have TJ Hawkinson, Dalton Schultz, Dawson Knox-ish, I have no idea who else is. Thanksgiving slate. Oh, Hunter Henry and Joni Smith. Joni dropped the ball in the open field by himself on, forgot that happened. What a bad offense. Why are they playing on Thanksgiving? Inject the Patriots in this space. I guess for Mondray school. Just kidding. We for Mondray on Thanksgiving, that's not bad. Is it, is it not bad? He's fun. He's fun. He's the only fun player on the team, but he's fun. Yeah. But DJ Chark didn't have a big role. So I would not use him in Thanksgiving unless you expect his role to expand. Philosophical changes. We talked about the bills earlier on. You talked about the Eagles. What else stood out to you in week 11? So I was trying to look up on Ross St. Brown's expected touchdowns. I told you it was 2.74. Okay. But it actually was... 2.74. I'm right. 0.5 according to PFF, but it seems low. 2.74. All right. What am I talking about? We talked about the bills and the Eagles. So you had a couple other notes on philosophical shifts this week. Yeah. The Chiefs pretty run heavy for them. Pass rate over expectation of 0.2 percentage points, but they're the leaders in the league at 12.4%. Again, part of it could have been the matchup. Part of it, pass catchers being so banged up, but... Part of it they need to force their best player on the field, Noah Gray. Yeah. The Chargers played really slow. So I don't know. It just wasn't quite as much volume as the Chiefs generally get, but something to monitor. We don't really do ETNs for philosophy changes, but it's only like two for me. I don't think it's gonna stick long-term. Okay, Washington. Washington's super run heavy, but as we talked about, did not feature Brian Robinson. It was the lowest pass rate over expectation of the year for them. With Heineke, it's always low, but I think this just makes me feel better about Antonio Gibson, where this was the Brian Robinson script. And he was still relatively involved, just really good for Gibson with no JD McKissick. I don't know how we don't like him next week. And then the biggest pass rate over expectation jumps in terms of week 11 versus full season numbers. We're just all teams that are irrelevant for the most part. New Orleans, Tennessee, Carolina, Cleveland and Houston. It's good for Berks. Traylon Berks at 59. The fact that they were willing to throw. Even against a Packers defense is really bad against the Rush. I think that's encouraging for them, at least. Houston, you could not pay me to use any of them. New Orleans, it's good for Olave, I guess, but he's been just kind of there, I guess, with Dalton. I feel the same way with Camaro, just kind of like there. It's fair. Okay, let's do our salary scroll. Let's do Thanksgiving first, because that's coming up on Thursday. So doing our salary scroll, position by position, looking at salaries, starting off with the Thanksgiving slate, starting at quarterback, what do you see there? Oh, goodness. So, Josh Allen's 95, Dax 8,000, and Daniel Jones is 75. I think that people are gonna wanna play Josh Allen, but the Dax is gonna be the mega chalk, because that's gonna go a long way. And we already know that we have stud running backs, so. I think the fact that Dax has not shown a ceiling yet this year from a fantasy point of perspective might keep a lid on that roster rate. It's not going to make it, he'll still be the most popular by the decent margin, but maybe it'll keep it a little bit more temperate, at least. I wish the gap between Prescott and Jones were a bit larger, because I don't mind Danny Dimes, because he runs so much, but I wish it were a little bit larger. Yeah, the theory's still there to pivot. Yeah, sure. He's taken advantage of some easy matchups, largely because they're rushing not necessarily passing. He finally came through with the passing this past week with 341 yards, but. It's because they were facing Detroit. Although it was windy, but I think it's kind of just those three. I've been looking at his numbers against bad pass defenses, and the passing is not generally there, but it finally was this week. Yeah. I can't really, I mean, like guys like Goff and Cousins are more viable on a shorter slate, because there are fewer cyborgs they need to overcome, but Christian Derisaw, we talked about him on Thursday and how important he was to the Vikings. He played, but then he got another concussion, which means he will not play Thursday. And against a very good Patriots defense, that makes it tough for me to get jazzed about Cousins. So I think it's kind of just the Alan Dack with a little bit of dimes mixed in. Yeah, you're banging against three guys with legitimate 30 point upside. If you're not playing Alan Prescott or Jones. Sure. Okay. Running back. Oh, I'm on the wrong slate. Sorry, went to the wrong tap. I was like, Derek Henry's not on Thanksgiving. I know that you think. Oh, if he, if he was, oh my goodness. Okay. So we have Seyquan 88, Pollard 85, Dalvis 78, and Ramandre 72. That's lower than I thought it'd be for Ramandre specifically. Yeah, I think at some point you can't make all these guys 8,000. Okay. Here's the thing that's encouraging. Jamal Williams is probably gonna get attention because he scored three times. He is $100 lower salary than Ramandre. So Ramandre, I think is actually, the Vikings rush defense got booped on Sunday. I don't know what that means, but they got booped. I think Ramandre is pretty interesting at 72. I prefer Singletary. 76% snap rate, 79% route rate. We're seeing all these running backs now. Ever since I brought up, that's that. I've seen like numerous guys above 75% route rate. Yeah, Ramandre's gonna be a good play. I think that Singletary is probably the guy to whom I will have the most exposure, just because he opens up a lot and I need the salary savings at 69. 200, so if it's 62, it's gonna tempt me. He will not tempt me. Didn't Justin Jackson out snap him this week? It was very close, if not, yeah. I mean, Justin Jackson's 52. If you're tempted by Switry, tempted by Justin Jackson, the ball carrier. No. Okay. Trying to cook up a narrative about Justin Jackson Thanksgiving. I got nothing. I got nothing. Yeah, I think it's basically Singletarian up to consider. Correct. And have screaming values. Damien Harris is gonna score three times though. Yeah, I knew that. On three carries. Okay, wide receiver. What do you see there? Well, just two guys above 8,000 and just five above 7,000. If the fund digs 93 against Detroit, that's gonna feel like one that's scary not to have enough exposure to. I'll be underweight. I will be naturally because I'll prefer the running backs, but. Yep, I agree. Not gonna feel good, but I just, realistically, I know that this will happen. I'd rather bet against digs in Jefferson than Allen and Dach, basically, or like Allen and the running backs. I agree with that. Gabe at 72 is fine. That's a fine salary. Yeah. Amon Roth finally gonna score on Thanksgiving 76. I'll be there a good bit. Didn't Calvin Johnson have like a six touchdown, he didn't know six touchdown, but like basically a six touchdown game on Thanksgiving in 2015? I'll look it up. Didn't he do that every year on Thanksgiving? You keep scrolling on salaries. I'm gonna see what he did on Thanksgiving Day in 2015. I'm pretty sure he had three touchdowns. Okay. So there's gonna be legitimate opportunity costs though with receiver because again, we have five guys above 72, but only seven above 6,000. Calvin Johnson, Thanksgiving Day, 2015, three touchdowns, 14 targets, 93 yards, but three touchdowns. So what I'm hearing is Amon Ross St. Brown gonna give us a Calvin Johnson game. Amon Ross St. Brown is Calvin Johnson. The exact same usage, nothing different. Yeah. No, no body type differences, anything. I think I'll have to take a look at Jacobi Myers just cause we've seen his- It's so high at 67. So high. It is. It is. But are you gonna build, so let's say we default is, I guess we can get into this more on tomorrow's show, but you build around Dak or Allen and the running backs. Even Singletary and like Remandrate, you're not gonna be able to play receivers. Are you gonna be okay playing three complete puns at receiver? Um, so I would rather use your guy, Khalif Raymond at 55 to save salary. I'd rather use Gallup at 57, feelin' had some targets this week. No, he had three for 25 yards gross. Yeah, we'll probably sing into Jacobi as upsetting as that is. You're right. Receiver's bad. It's the worst position on Thanksgiving. Yeah. I mean, if you go Dak or Remandrate, Singletary and the Giants, you still need three receivers at Titanium Naflax and you're at 68, 80. So like... Doable. Cause Titanium is low salaried. Yeah, it's doable. Okay. So Titanium is Hawkinson 63, Schultz 58. Schultz 58 is again really good. Yes, absolutely. I'm gonna keep on going back there. Dawson Knox's workload's been better recently. I need to, like, I'm just so sad Lawrence Kager's not a tight end. This breaks my heart. I think Thanksgiving's ruined. Can we cancel Thanksgiving? You can try. You wouldn't object. You don't like Thanksgiving that much anyway. I don't. Yeah, I don't. Knox, 20% target share of the past two games, which helps adjust for play volume there. Okay, that's fine. That's encouraging. With one red zone target per game, just a 15% target share there, but I think that he's in play for someone who, cause that's how I consider Schultz puts up yardage. A touchdown from a tight end is gonna be fine. Yep. I feel like given the salaries on Knox and Schultz, I don't feel a lot of pull to get a super, super low salary tight end. I think those guys are pretty fine where they're at. Yes, I agree. Okay, we're not gonna look at defense. Let's go to the main slate for week number 12 and pull up quarterback there. What do you see? Okay, so we have Lamar is a bit under salary probably at 82. Tua gets the Texans though at 83, he could torch them. What's Jeff Wilson salary? That's my first question. We'll look at that later, but just saying. Okay, so based on just my default screen size here, I see my homes at 9,000, Joe Bro over salary probably at 86 against the Titans, just not the best matchup, fields banged up. They're not as good against the pass. You can beat them there. And they're a funnel, bringing that word back. But not a priority play at 86 without a whole lot of rushing ability. So because we have Tua at 83 in a much easier spot to throw Lamar against the Jaguars. And then Justin Herbert against the Cardinals at 79. I can't imagine punting at quarterback at all because some of those guys are gonna put up games in those matches. What do you consider a punt? Because, you know, 76. I could see that. I think it's a little bit more risk than I need. Trevor Lawrence at 69. Ah, there's too much temptation. I need to block these guys out of my screen. Yeah, I think realistically, Gino, we like him, he can be efficient, but the odds of 30 seem a bit low. Yeah, his odds score in 30 are only like 45%. I'd like that a little bit higher. All right. Herbert or Gino straight up. Before adding in week 11 data, so this will change. I know he's efficient, but as of right now, most efficient projected offenses on the main slate. Kansas City one, sure. Miami two, obvious. Seattle's third. It's a $700 gap between Tua and Gino. I'm not saying that's nothing, but like the dolphins are gonna win that game in the first quarter. I mean, Seahawks probably gonna win that game in the first quarter. It's a three and a half point spread, or to think three and a half point spread versus 13 and a half. And my numbers say that I should, or sorry, 11 and a half. My numbers say it should be 13 and a half for the dolphins. So it's just one of the spots where like, okay. Lamar plays. I'll get my exposure to Gino via the receivers. Just disregard if that's fine. Okay, okay. You can move on. It's okay. You're right. I don't think I'm playing anyone other than like Herbert and up. I would consider Gino if I love, you know, if we really need Kelsey, so. I feel like it's gonna be back. I just need there to be no wind in Jacksonville so I can just go bananas with Lamar because I think it's gonna happen very soon. I see the right spot. I think that's the right spot. I wanted it to be last week, but then the wind pushed me away. Yeah. Next week. Next week. Okay, running back. What do you see there? Derrick Henry, 95. Christian McCaffrey finally back on the man's slate, 92. Oh, Kenneth Walker is 84. Maybe I should use that instead of Gino. Yeah, that's more appealing. Given the passing game we only had before they're by. Jeff Wilson, 77. That's not, that's like higher than I thought it'd be, but I'm not crossing that off. Yeah. I mean, Jeff Wilson versus Dave Montgomery, there's no conversation there. Absolutely not. Oh my gosh. Alvin Cumberick, 71. All the algorithms, all the projections are gonna love them. They're 49ers. It's not a fun spot. No, it's not. James Conner gets the charges of 7,000. He's awful, but I don't know if you can be inefficient against the Chargers. Also, Keonti Ingram's gonna score a touchdown tonight. Just letting that, letting you know. So is the luster on Damian Pierce fallen so far that he's not a consideration of 69 in a game that will not want to stack, but we're gonna want other stuff. It's a better matchup than he's had, but also like, what's the best case scenario? Like, can he get me multiple touchdowns? No, because the team won't score multiple times. Right. Especially when I know I have Antonio Gibson to 61. It makes the incentive to go to Pierce lower. Yeah, it was like a devil's advocate kind of thing. Yeah, for sure. Rashad White, 64, coming off thereby. It sounds like Lenny should play, but it does seem like Rashad White kind of justify getting himself more volume. I think 64 is pretty tempting for Rashad White against Cleveland of all teams, who's terrible against the Rush. I do as well. He's not as big of a write down as Gibson, but I would say that he is a right-ish down. Yeah, we're gonna have White, Pacheco, Pacheco. Maybe Pirine. Maybe Pirine, Gibson. You won't be able to spend down at three running back slots this week. We've even had that all year. We make it in like mid-range for three, but. Yeah, we make it news that Gus Edwards is gonna come back and be, I thought he's not. I think they'll mix all the guys in. Sorry, did you mean to cut you off? No, I just, I'm saying, I like Kenny and Drake fine, but he didn't really. Yeah. Okay, I'm only saying this. I'm only saying this because I feel obligated to. Kyren Williams played more than half the Snaps to the Rams, ran a lot of routes. They're huge underdogs against the Chiefs. He's $53. I'm probably not gonna do it, but I do feel obligated to at least mention that he is physically there. Sure, that's all we're gonna do. If he odds he gets 15 Fandal points, less than zero. I'd say it's like 2%. So I'll go over. Okay. And if he doesn't get there, I could say, well, that was 98%. You can never be wrong if you talk to percentages. That's great. I'm gonna have a lot of internet Gibson because I want those quarterbacks. Yep. Do you want to receivers? Let's turn there now. Oh boy. Tyreek 92 against the Texans. He could put up 45 there. He could put up 45 where they could be up by 30 in the first half. He could never see the field again. Yeah. Teams definitely. We saw a route with the Cowboys this week. They benched everyone for the first quarter. It was a complete match. What did CD Land do in that game? What did Dalton Schultz do in that game? What did Michael Gallup do in that game? Tell me. Then Michael Gallup? Are you joking? Are you telling me that Tyreek Hill's better than Michael Gallup? Who did you say first? Was it CD Land? No, I said Michael Gallup. Michael Gallup has three L's in his name. Tyreek Hill has two. Therefore, Michael Gallup is better. Scroll down. What are we doing with Devontae? I don't know. He's got five touchdowns in his past three games. He's got 29.6, 23.1, and 31.6 Vandal points. I'll probably have the salary to get there this week for once, which is encouraging. Devontae or Tyreek? So I would go Devontae due to GameScript. Right now, Devontae, due to GameScript as well. I agree. He'll be a fun game stack with DK, just be your DK and Lockett, just because I can actually get there, given the salaries are running back this week. So I find that actually encouraging. I can use him for once. So he's gonna go for seven targets, 14 yards on three catches. Yes. Oh, I'm Mario Cooper once again. Superstar receiver, 78. But he's not at home. Oh, he isn't home. Just kidding. Home slash neutral site, because it was a neutral site this past week. So we had to add that to the caveats, just to see, you know, I don't know if you're keeping track. Christian Kirk at 77 is a lot harder to justify, seeing Keenan now at 73, Lockett 74, stuff like that. That makes it tougher. Keenan's almost a write down for me. I think with Lockett and Metcalfe right there, he's a good play, but I don't know if he's a write down for me, given that I have other options. That's fair. He's a good play though. I think that's totally okay. Josh Palmer though at 68 gets tougher for me with Keenan there, but also the other guys there, that's tougher. I was curious about Marquise Brown, but he's 7,000. Yeah. We forgot to mention the commander's best running back, he heard a Samuel. Another red zone rush attempt, which turned into a touchdown this week. He's 65, that's too high. DPJ is 63. I can still probably consider that. It's less appealing within Joku healthy, but... Sorry, you're a bit lower than I am now. Debo, complete dust at this point. Dustbow? That's 69. Oh, that's low. No, not complete dust. I think that's low enough to be a consideration. We lost over him, so I thought, no. I was distracted by Josh Palmer. Alan Robinson is still 68. What are we doing? Eject him. What did he do yesterday? 4 for 47. That's a very Alan Robinson line. The exact same as he's been doing with... Yeah, he did. The exact same he's been doing with Cooper Cup. I think we have a decent amount of mid-range receivers. And studs. Yeah. Which makes me feel better about just blitzing the value running backs. Scrolling down at receiver, Traylon Berks 59. I still feel pretty okay about that, honestly. Yeah, I don't just like that. I don't know how many swings I'll be taking at the 5,000 range this week. 5,000 range is not super appealing unless we get no juju in which case Skymore slash Justin Watson could be okay, but I probably won't need that value from receiver. Yeah, they're still on priority plays. Those are like because the salary's low, which is different than thinking they're in first place. Right, correct. So I'd probably go no lower than Traylon Berks at 59, as of now. No, I might be with you. Okay, tight ends. Oh, Mark Andrews 73. Everyone's gonna be on Kelsey off a three touchdown game. Mark Andrews didn't do anything last week. Mark Andrews 73. This is the week to use him. I want him in my single entry lineups. You know, stud tight end pivots are a great play. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I'm sorry, but George Kittle, I mean, I get it at 62, but I'm not gonna be there. Probably not for me either. It's cause I don't really care about that team slash game. Value tight end is pretty bad. And Joku at 56, fully in play. Now that he's a week further removed from his injury. Three targets, 17 yards is pass big, but we know he has a path to yardage juice, but like I don't see a lot else that's super appealing down here. No, it's kind of scary, honestly. It does mean that we will probably need the value running back, which we kind of thought, but I think this kind of confirms it. Tray McBride, if he has a good role on Monday, he's $4,800 based on the chargers. That could work. Yeah. Jody Foster's 45. I know Logan Thomas got some work. They play the Falcons. What's he? He's 52. Nope, too high. Okay. So like this is looking like an early week split of like 50% Kelsey, 50% Andrews. Yep. Which is kind of weird, but. Again, we have it at running back, so I think that's actually fine. So note to future me, this can be Thanksgiving, week 12, life. I don't care what you got. You're gonna throw me for a loop there with life. I would say. What's ball is life. I would say even on a three games late, make sure you guys have a realistic path to some sort of tangible upside. And that's why the appeal and the value running backs is so high is because Gibson does have a path because of the kind of work he gets. P. Ryan Wood, because he gets passing game work and goal line work. Rashad, why does it path to upside? Cause he seems pretty decent and seems like they'd probably want to give him a decent amount of work. We'll learn more about that throughout the week, I would think. And that allows you to get tight ends with ceilings, which is rare on the main slate. So I think that's the note to future me is don't be afraid to take the savings at running back because of what it can get you elsewhere for the main slate for week 12. For the Thanksgiving slate, you should probably spend up your money back. Yeah, that's different. Okay. Well, that's all that we have here for today, but don't worry, we got a lot more coming throughout this week. Once again, our Thanksgiving show is on Tuesday, noon Eastern on the Fandle YouTube page and up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. We'd have that and then our week 12 main slate preview, Wednesday, noon Eastern, Fandle YouTube page, Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, wherever you get your podcast, go subscribe both of those places. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? I'm on Twitter at Goodwill13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. And I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandle Podcast Network at Fandle Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down the Thanksgiving slate. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.