 Welcome to access a trader. The number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessItTrader.com weekend update show. Everybody is having a great weekend. Spring is finally coming up. God I need this sun to come out and get some warmer temperatures. Again God bless all of us who live in the northeast in Canada. Everywhere there's cold weather is just enough. It's just absolutely enough and a couple of weeks of long vacation I need sun like a fish needs water so hopefully you guys are having a great weekend. Hopefully you guys are trading well. So let's talk about the markets. Welcome all you guys for joining us on weekly basis via Stocktwits, YouTube, Facebook and of course all our faithful followers on Twitter. Welcome. Welcome. So again we do these weekend updates for the point of the trader. Again like I say this every single week that there's a million websites out there that will tell you about what's going on with the Fed and how they're not going to raise rates anymore and then they're going to cut rates and growth is slowing and Powell and this is not the other thing. Again we're speaking from the traders point of view. We're speaking from the traders point of view. There's 30,000 of the sites more than happy. You can go on any site and read exactly what happened last week. We're talking about from the traders point of view how it affects us how it emotionally affects us, how it technically affects us and how can we get better processing all the information and moving forward. So Friday was a very aggressive day to the downside. Before we even talk about Friday's session I think one of the best questions and I was asked this, I always ask to get this question always towards the top or towards the bottom and again by no means am I saying this is the top or this is a reversal for anything. This is a common question and if you guys remember on the FOMC day on Wednesday the NASDAQ futures I think let's see if we go back to Wednesday, if we go back to Wednesday you'll see here so the NASDAQ futures on Wednesday's session went all the way all the way down. They came in really really aggressively into the close and what happened was if you notice all the stocks like Amazon and Netflix Apple they all got stronger and there was no greater sentiment, there's no greater clue what's going to happen next and how the stocks react when there is a speed bump and the next day the Dow opened down and I said based on last night's close and just the way there was so much strength and disconnect from the indexes into these beta names all the values on the long side and the next day we had that 200 point rally and somebody asked me well again the market makes no sense, first of all again the market's never going to make any sense there's no such thing as the normal market or a normal environment, the market's never going to make any sense the market's always going to do things that it's completely out of left field and that's why I always say charts don't lie but sometimes they don't tell you the truth either so we had this big big move, sent them and was very very strong it was call buyers everywhere sweeps everywhere and again I get this question what are the bears finally going to do what they need to do for this market to stop going up and I turn around and I said well stocks just got stocks just need to stop going up that's right, this is the million dollar advice you're getting from me right now real estate it's that simple stocks need it to stop going up and before you turn around and say well that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard of course stocks need to stop going up before they go down but there's actually a method to this madness if you saw what happened on Friday actually going back to even Thursday's session there's one thing I started noticing I started seeing a lot of call buying a lot of call buying in names that had pretty big runs Amazons, Netflix whatever the case may be, big big call buying coming in middle of the day, sweeps sweeps sweeps and I started noticing that well stocks stop going higher they just didn't get that big umph matter of fact also if you guys remember I usually don't trade a lot in the afternoons but there were two really aggressive pivots on Thursday both Tesla and Netflix but the one thing that if you remember what happened on Netflix for the whole day right if you guys remember the stock just couldn't rally the market was up like 200 points it just couldn't rally and it finally woke up towards the end of the day did they finally clean up a sweep did they finally clean up a seller again we don't know but all I kept on seeing that again aggressive option flow coming in again I started using these sweeps um you know to gauge how strong a pivots going to be if it confirms it's been working pretty well but the one thing I kept on noticing was well the stocks are not really rallying okay and not only are they not rallying for in the money sweeps they stopped rallying out of the money sweeps so for example I saw a sweep on multiple sweeps on Tesla for example on Thursday this is right after another after another after another they kept them coming in with size $500,000, $700,000 $300,000, $200,000 one after another on the April 300 calls and you would assume with that aggressive buying with this quote unquote type of environment it would take the stock up and really really exploded the stock went up like about about a dollar in change and then sold off three the next day which was Friday we started seeing a little bit of a weaker open okay and the value we saw a lot of value this week on balance plays I started playing these balance plays a lot more you know the video uh Tesla Netflix stuff like that and Friday was like the clue of all clues if you guys remember we didn't open down six 700 points okay we opened down very very modest and the the core theory on any bull market or any bullish sentiment is when the market opens up down opens down in a bull market or a bull sentiment and stocks come into the 60 minute channel usually spring right back okay it's it's the rule it's like you know it's the rule any gap down is the value is always to the upside in the bear market any gap up the value is always you know always to the downside as well so we started seeing call sweeps again we saw the 400 calls being swept up on Netflix we saw the 420s being swept up on Netflix and all Netflix wanted to do was just go down and the moral of the story is you know nobody could have forecasted a rabid reversal rug pull on a Friday okay I'm always on alert and I always talk talk about this in a morning strategy especially when you have a really really aggressive linear market at any point they could always pull the market but nobody really expected it on Friday right nobody there was nothing outrageous there was no materialistic catalyst for it and what happened what we saw was in plain English stocks just stopped going up and every single time there was a call sweep it went lower another call sweep went lower until the buyers just stopped okay and you saw this really really aggressive pull in a lot of these beta names and you see for example a five minute viewing that guy usually do on the 60 but you can see how aggressive throughout the morning this pull was on Netflix how strong this pull was on Amazon they just weren't going up at all ironically the one stock that was holding up was actually Tesla for the majority of the day after the initial gap down but you started seeing there was something different right something different in the air and the bids just weren't there rallies were very very small and the moral of the story is it was a buyer strike now again before everybody jumps out out of the window and says well this is just one day it's not a big deal maybe you're right maybe you're not but there is one thing that I noticed for a lot of these names going into this week okay let's look at the macro picture first okay so here are the cues if anybody's ever watched anything we ever did in the live webinar or watched the ps60 workshop which by the way guys you can watch the first hour of the ps60 workshop to see if pivots are right for you click the link in the description or have a tweet that's pinned on my twitter account you can get free access to a one hour one hour workshop just to see if pivots are right for you but that's not here nor there but anything you know if you've ever watched it we always talk about how stocks trade from supply to supply and demand that's the natural course of these stocks and the one thing I noticed somewhere you know somewhere in the afternoon was every single stock tested their five day moving average okay I even tweeted about that and the moral of the story is the five minute the five day moving average is not a really big not a really big crowd loved you know embraced study okay what's the five day moving average shortest area of you can possibly study but the one thing for me I've always really admired about the five day it really reflects the really short term sentiment and if you're a day trader okay or you know two three days swing trader whatever the case may be a future trader you have to know which way the wind is blowing so the five day for me represents short term sentiment and once we started seeing the test for example on Amazon in the five day balance Netflix balance Alibaba balance Apple balance the question was well now Monday is going to be very very important because if they confirm you know we could go lower the problem was the stock market didn't wait for Monday okay and if you notice all these charts and again guys I've always said this that technical analysis is the purest form of a guy okay there is no room for interpretation if you've been watching these videos for a very long time you kind of know that there it's not a it's it's not a gray area it's either going to happen or it's not and if you notice what happened on a lot of these charts and you kind of see where things are going to play out I'll show you the 60 minute charts in a second if you notice the queues closed underneath the five day moving average Amazon closed underneath the five day moving average Netflix closed not only underneath the five underneath the 10 but it tested the 20 day right you have a theme here going on here Alibaba as well right broke below everything 10 the 20 the only reason it held up was this Bollinger van right here you look at Google right Google below the five day moving average and if you go through all the NASDAQ 100 charts you'll see exactly the same thing and you know again before we put the cart in front of the horse and turn around say well this is the reversal anybody buying up here is and anybody's buying any type of dips on Monday is an idiot we can't put the cart in front of the horse the days of guessing predicting right they're gonna cost you a lot of money okay I'm not that smart nobody's that smart okay we could have an opinion okay which I obviously have an opinion I'll share with you in a second but I'm not that smart to turn around and say well Friday was the blow off top of all tops the market's going to go lower you know the stock up on guns ammo bread water you know we're going into Armageddon it's nothing like that okay all it is from phase value is something for all of our antennas whether you're a trader a day trader swing trader futures trader investor you just have to have the antennas up that we at least for at least the close from Friday session pierced a technical a very very small but very important at least to me technical damage area of the market that it could potentially lead to something more okay that's it nobody's saying we're gonna go down 6000 points in the next 24 hours all we're saying is if the price action confirms right if the price action confirms from Friday we're gonna have a problem and again this is not an opinion this is called technical analysis confirmation so very very you know you really need to you really need to kind of listen to what I'm saying especially if you're a new trader because again the theory of buy the dip only works in a very rabid bull market if you guys notice on Friday there were no there were no buyers okay there were absolutely no buyers Amazon doesn't just go in a linear line and run back $34 linear line run back $34 there's no buyers and I said this all the time be careful what you ask for because this is the only business in the world when things are on sale people don't want to buy you gotta really think about that and really take that into consideration if you're looking to buy the dips on on Monday now here's the good news right here's the good news and here's where Monday at least for the moment at least for the first couple of candles we can see a little bit stability in selling if you guys notice the queues are very very close to the 10 day moving average again stocks go from demand demand demand demand demand demand and so forth and so on so we're like 50 cents away okay we're like 50 cents away from the 10 day moving average the only any close okay and this is a very very important level any close below 178 on the queues we're going down to 175 okay again there is no room for interpretation you can turn around say I'm rolling this that thing that's fine you don't you again remember I'm the king of the idiots what the hell do I know but any close below the 10 day moving average we're going to have a problem now if we gap down okay if we gap down below that 10 day moving average it's very very important that bulls within the first hour within the first two candles maximum reclaim this 10 day because if not you can see where the next measure potential is on and on and on so you have to really really whatever type of trader you are you really have to embrace what I'm saying here because again technical analysis is a very very clear guide okay whether you choose to appreciate it or choose to ignore it it's going to it's going to really echo right and really establish your your P and L okay because if you read the market wrong the market's not going to give you a mulligan right you're not going to get a second chance to kind of rewrite history you're either going to be right or really really wrong and if you notice how all the 60 minute channels are setting up and again if you're watching this for the first time I trade 60 minute channels they're all 60 minute channels I use the 5 minute to kind of gauge my entry sometimes if there's additional supply but the clearest view for me is the 60 minute channel and if you look at every single 60 minute channel you got Tesla very very tight you got Amazon very very tight you got NVIDIA very very tight you got Alibaba very very tight you got Netflix very very tight again go through all the 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 and you're going to see pretty much the same thing over and over again which basically tells you is if we start confirming Friday's price action we're going to go lower it's just the reality and if you're option listen I'm telling you this I trade equity but I'm pretty damn good at measured potential if you look at measured potential if you go on the daily charts I'm not going to go through all of them today but if you go on daily charts for example on Amazon you go on that for example on Netflix and you see where the next demand zones are you can really establish a really good game plan if you are an aggressive options trader again if you believe in this theory that stocks go from supply to supply and demand and demand so here's Amazon's chart so here's Amazon's chart so you know the next demand zone is 1730 so if Amazon gaps up for whatever reason there's a green open and Amazon gaps up into the 70s and goes green to red you know the next potential move is 30 points so if you're an aggressive options trader you say well wait a minute I believe in the theory that stocks go from supply to supply and demand to demand so here's my next demand zone which is 1730 it might not be a bad bet if you're an aggressive options trader to work out some sort of strategy that you are trying to get exposure into a potential measured move into the 1730s again nobody's saying it's going down to 1580 but you never know and if you're an options trader it's a really really good way to get the biggest bang for your buck for a measured potential and it's not going to affect your day to day P&L especially on the first day if you're going deep out of money what a measured potential to follow so it's just something for you guys to think about I thought the week was decent I had one good day a bunch of several I had a bunch of decent days I actually had a day I lost money which I turned several trades it was on Thursday I believe I took several trades from positive trades into negative trades which was again I had a brain for it sometimes like once every month once every month and a half I had a brain for it I had exactly the same brain for it on Thursday I took I was up like a dollar and changed on Netflix somehow I turned into a loss I was up about a dollar on Tesla somehow I turned into a loss it was just like just such a weird weird day for me but again human beings we're going to bleed we're going to laugh we're going to cry we're going to have losing days just part of the cycle Friday bounce back made some money on Friday but overall the week was fine there was nothing I had one really good day everything else was just kind of fine it was I was finding more value in a weird way because the market was so linear I personally was finding a lot more value on the bounce plays off the 60 minute channels which is kind of odd you know which is kind of odd for me because mostly time I will trade the natural pivot but you have to at some point have to start going the defense mode and when you see a market for example when you see Amazon going from you know 16 what was it from 16 from 1674 to 1820 eventually it turns out it's a little a little over extended here I'm not sure if I'm willing to commit a fresh capital up here so I found the bounce plays pretty effective I know a lot of you guys in the live webinar play that as well again I don't I usually don't post the bounce plays in the Twitter feed or the stock twist feed only because I try to keep that into the natural pivot but we do play these plays we do play these things all the time now they're very very good risk reward area because we're literally trying to bounce these trades on the bottom of the channel matter of fact if you go onto my Twitter feed I think it was on Tuesday right there was a bottom bounce on net on Tesla at 264 265 they're right up 10 okay so just to give you an idea how really aggressive these things are so there was a lot of value in the bounce plays and the most important thing going into this week is my opinion is well if we start confirming price action for Friday we're going to go lower so I'm going to give the bulls okay a little bit of a string right a little bit of rope at the start of the Monday's trading session because again at the end of the day you could turn around and say well Friday Friday was just like you know normally it's not a big deal you know if we if we gap down and reverse and reclaim and go back higher and yet absolutely that could definitely be a possibility but again don't be naive to think we can't start confirming Friday's price action and start going lower as well so here was Friday here was Friday's action in the webinar pizza never reclaimed Papa John's never reclaimed I the funny thing is I like this setup in the morning right this is all pre-market I really like that setup in the morning at 3 79 to the upside of Netflix obviously it never it never confirmed so here's where things started really confirming and I guess fully guys on the live webinar in the stock to it sometimes I'm dyslexic this was obviously 368 50 for builds below obviously wasn't 168 somebody emailed me and goes hey Dan I'm still waiting for the 168 build yeah me too so yeah so a Boeing and I know I know a lot of you guys figured it out but so I have to apologize if you ever see me put in a weird number into these feeds just just just double check with me but this obviously was 368 50 if it builds below can flush and you know here is the pivot on Boeing if you look at the 60 minute channel on Boeing here is a 368 50 right over here 368 50 you can see here 368 65 once it built 368 50 even the first candle was good for like four and a half five dollars so that was pretty good the funny thing is it was a Citron hit piece right I put an initial low of 38 dollars and then it spiked back to 38 so what I did was I put it in I put in a sell stop I put in a sell stop so if it got triggered to the way down I would get filled the problem is I totally forgot about it like I literally totally forgot about it I had an order in there and because the stock was so slow it's like I looked down and I was like what the hell is this thing and it started moving down and I was like I don't even want to be in this thing because it's so slow but when I looked I was it was it was in my favor of like 20 cents or so so I just covered it up if you guys got the bigger move good job but this was like this one of the slowest Citron hit pieces so I actually made money on this thing by accident but again sometimes you know you will you know lug does play a part on the video 80 60 for builds below it could flush here was in the video and again for all you guys are trading the option these are really good value bets so here is on the video so here is the 80 60 you know the lowest candle and the rising support once it broke this 80 60 and started to build you can see the move down here Tesla here all this I messed up Tesla I totally forgot about Tesla I personally messed this up so I shorted Tesla okay I shorted Tesla and this is when the market was down at 300 okay so I shorted Tesla 260 8 ish right I think I shorted Tesla 688 ish here is where I shorted I shorted it right here right so yeah here it is so I short Tesla right here and the stock they just they just don't want to crack this thing and the one thing that I do know about Tesla or any of these beta names if you're sitting them long long enough okay and they just can't clean up a cell or clean up a buyer you can get pillars the other way so I was in Tesla for like 15 minutes and this thing is just trading in like a 30 cent range I'm up 20 cents I'm up 30 cents I'm up 40 cents I'm down 10 cents I'm up 30 cents and you can see these buyers just coming in and I'm like okay listen this thing doesn't crack now I'm out of this thing right I'm out of this thing I don't want to hear about it I'm out of this thing safe and sorry and you know it goes down like 40 50 cents and the buyer comes back damn buyer comes back and I was like alright I'm done with this thing I cover it up okay it actually goes back up 70 80 cents the market starts rallying oh I did the right thing I did the right thing there's a buyer in the crowd I don't want to fight with a buyer it's Friday blah blah blah blah I look down and yeah it happens it happens but again we live with our choices good or bad again safe and sorry it's not the money you make it's the money you keep blah blah blah yeah it sucks it happened so that's that if you did make money on this thing good job Facebook never confirmed yeah so Amazon good job for all you guys who are short and a lot of you guys are still short over the weekend we talked about Kane great job Steve P great job I know you guys were short way before anybody else but this is the big number 1776 the future start getting heavier it could dump down and see 1760 again this is just you know technical analysis and for all you guys who are trading again on on the option side look at the load of the day right guys it traded right to 1760 so again technical analysis works you just don't take these prices out of the air again stocks trade from you know demand demand demand demand demand on and on on and on so for all you guys who did well on Friday great job if you if you haven't had a rough week it only gets better if you had a great week quickly forget about it the most important part is in the one thing that I always say to every single trader and I tweeted this out on Saturday okay you're not cursed you're not dumb okay you don't have a dark cloud in front of you okay above you you are going through this is obviously to to newer traders you are going through the same thing that every single trader has gone through before you okay these are stages in your trading career that you are going to have sleepless nights you have self doubts you want to quit trading 75 times a day and you know what guys this is totally normal and the one thing that I will tell you is if you want to be a professional trader you have to embrace this okay you have to embrace these facts you have to accept it and you have to move forward because again there's no difference between me there's no difference between you and there's no difference between Peter Lynch and there's no difference between you know David Einhorn everybody is in the same arena your account might be different your risk tolerance might be different but you're all looking at the same thing and if you want to do this for the rest of your life your career you really have to appreciate the struggle before you can really appreciate the success and it will come have faith it will come so going into this week guys I want to give the bulls a very very small rope benefit of the doubt the first hour of the day but if we start losing candles and we start confirming to the downside again trust the process trust technical analysis guys I love you all god bless and have an awesome awesome trade week congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading you're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire want daily trade ideas directly from Dan straight off his personal watch list unlock our free ps60 vault where you'll get weekly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day session click the link in the description to get started today