 Devon thoughts on the Simon Michelle from FED now join the show is it all kind of a done deal Simon welcome to you For the Fed this week get a cast and look very looking very much that way Absolutely, and I think you know the difference we're seeing now is that yields position themselves in preparation for that tightening Futures very much a done deal as well 100% chance So I think now it gets to what happens after this this increase how many Increases will we see from the Fed this year? And you as a house minded to change that projection based on Everything so far this year or you're saying let's just see how this first one runs and then we'll You know perhaps Recast our calls look I think so absolutely because if you have a look at the longer end of the yield curve cast If you have a look at the 10 year have a look at the 30 year We're still off of last year's highs so you know while you've seen the short end of the curve You've seen that to you as you mentioned drift up closer In anticipation these high rates We're not really seeing that adjusted in the 10 and the 30 and that's really where you see you know They're proxy for for growth and inflation and I think that's because you're really still seeing you know growth forecast You know it's still fairly fairly moderate Inflation has drifted up a little bit But you know the bond market is certainly not on board with this huge infrastructure spending and you know 45% growth forecast that we're seeing out there. Mm-hmm. The question is in Westpac asked this and it's that's weekly kind of look ahead You know what is the feds view on neutral rates and why is that important for Australia? So just sort of try and Thread the needle if you could on that one. Well, this is interesting I mean, you know, it's about looking at this excessive rates. So how many interest rate increases are we going to get? Considering that they are based on obviously, you know, growing inflation growing growth and a solid Performing economy now a lot of people are saying, you know If if inflation and growth are going to remain low globally and we certainly suggest that is the case Then the ability for the Fed to continue to raise interest rates is inhibited by those low forecasts And what you're likely to see is a bit of an inverse of the yield curve Where you actually see short-term rates higher than longer-term rates and that reflects obviously, you know negative growth slow and growth recession Hmm. It's interesting. You do under to yourself Is the Australian economy in that scenario even say at a 1% neutral rate down from three in the 1980s? Are we resilient enough to see out the cycle? Well, I mean, it's really interesting. I mean, you know, there are certainly some concerns in the Australian economy We saw a negative quarter of growth, you know, two quarters ago You know, it's you know, it is really, you know on a bit of a precipice. I suppose, you know You've got a lot of commentators out there in major banks suggesting we'll see a cash rate as low as 1% this year Others suggesting we won't need a further cut You know, the the US Fed moving their rates higher Does do a bit of that work for the Reserve Bank because it makes the US rates much more attractive than Aussie rates And you know, then you start to see a bit of pressure off the dollar the dollar drips a little bit lower That's positive for our manufacturing export market So, you know the US Fed if we do get sort of three four interest rate the increases Would probably take a bit of pressure off the need for the RBA to lower rates But they have some real concerns in our domestic economy as you mentioned. Hmm. Indeed they do so speaking of which we do get a jobs print ourselves this week is that Composition I suppose now more than ever to your point the composition matters a lot And we perhaps would be more buoyed up if we did see a pivot back into full-time. Well, absolutely And I mean, you know employment's you know, it's not looking too bad rates around 5.7% They're not expecting a huge change to that But we do have a real problem with the change in the underlying structure of our workforce and you hear a lot of Talk around under employment, wherever, you know, people might have a job They might have two jobs, but they're not working as much as they would need to or would like to So, you know, people are looking at that transition from full to part-time the underlying impact of that seasonal factors as well I don't think it's going to be a key driver at the moment. I looked at the forecast. They're pretty much status quo Let's talk about Harley-Davidson. Yes, I tend to need a salary to To go well, maybe you don't maybe you can do it all on higher purchase these days to nab a Harley, right? Well, I don't know like that. It's like your speed from experience. Anyway, go on, Simon. Go on That's right. Well, this is really interesting because we've seen a lot of US issuers and non-US issuers using the Australian bond market And I think it's a real factor of the development and maturing of the Australian bond market greater number of investors here We've seen Coca-Cola. We've seen Apple issue bonds in Australia in Australian dollars Harley-Davidson the next big one as well They've never issued outside the US So I tell you what, you know, if you're big supporter of this company, they've been around since 1902 I think it is you know time to jump on you can lock in some good funding and support Harley-Davidson Because they've only raised US dollar funds to date up to this point Yeah, never used any offshore markets at this point This will be their first look outside of the US looking at Aussie and Singapore But you know, I think it just again We're seeing a succession of what we call kangaroo bond issuances We should basically non Aussie companies issuing Aussie dollar bonds into Australia providing great source of diversification sector diversification for Aussie investors Okay, we must roar on To adopt the lexicon or something like that I don't know We'll talk to you soon. All right. Thank you. Thanks, Carson. Bye. Bye Simon Michelle there from Fegg. We must take