 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network After what has felt like a very long way to the college football playoffs semi-finals are finally here on New Year's Day We got Michigan taking on Alabama Texas versus Washington were to break down both those games today and get you ready both for the traditional markets But also some player props over a Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as I am every time we talk about college football by dr. Ed Feng you can find his work at the power bank comm and check him out on Twitter at the power bank Ed College football playoff time is finally here final year of it being just four teams. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I mean you don't want to get a committee together and just put four NFL teams and Semifinal and then Super Bowl this year. I might want just to for the NFL So maybe actually it'd be okay for the NFL, but for college. I think I think four is pretty played out It would it would you know in the NFL it would make these division match-ups mean more. Yeah, it definitely would You know there there's there's that Regular season means nothing NFL right no one tunes in to watch NFL regular season games No one no one tunes in for sure. Yeah, that's definitely the truest thing. I've heard all day. Yep So Ed I am I as you can see if watching the video version and not my typical recording studio I am on the road here for the holiday weekend And I am at my mom and stepdad's house and I am an idiot So I forgot a hat and as being a a bald man. I needed a hat So I had to ask my stepdad for some hats And so I've got I've got one on now But I did have other options and we could have been twins because he's a huge Michigan fan I could have been wearing almost the exact same hat as you or the other option was the blue Michigan hats So we could have been twins if you if you wanted But I decided to go with the the cast man of a football hat instead We can be yin and yang and you can put the blue one since I have the maze cap on I Was thinking you could have gone with your Albuquerque ice-topes hacks That kind of looks like an Alabama hat and we could have been you know We'd look like a fair and balanced podcast for the clips and for YouTube and stuff like that I didn't even think about that. Yeah, the Albuquerque ice-topes definitely could could be a sub for Alabama Yeah, we don't have Texas and Washington covered but we can work on that You know, you got some time still maybe we'll get some some like fake deep some deep fake clips out there as well Oh, we can work on that for sure. There's still time before Monday rolls around but at I mean this these games are gonna rock I know there was a controversy around all the FSU stuff and at the time was a bomber And I'm sure for FSU fans it still is obviously but like as we're digging into these games The excitement level for these specific match-ups for me at least is like off the charts Absolutely, I think they're gonna be two incredible games and they really cap off an incredible run of football games in general You know, you have lines at Cowboys on Saturday night before an amazing NFL Slate Sunday And I was I was actually checking I was like, oh, they're not gonna try to put in any Monday NFL games on right They're not because it's the playoffs semi-finals this New Year's Day So yeah, it's just an amazing slate of football blessed to be doing this for a living and talking about it with you absolutely and Jets Brown's Thursday the best appetizer could possibly want watching Joe Flacco in her revenge game What better way to kick off a great weekend in the NFL if you want a breakdown of that Thursday game You can find it right here in the covering the spread podcast feed via Tom Vecchio prime time Tom already posted It is up on the covering the spread podcast feed and also over on a fan dual TV plus We of course you can find this podcast tomorrow of our full breakdown the NFL week number 17 with Ed Right here in the covering the spread podcast feed the Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus to get Fandall TV plus Go to Fandall comm slash watch and log in with your Fandall account You can also find Fandall TV plus on Amazon Fire Apple TV and Roku devices score early this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins you've been thinking about joining Fandall There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more so visit Fandall and kickoff the NFL season Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and present in select states Fandall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under agreement with Kansas star casino LLC First online real mini wager only $5 pregame money line wager required $10 first deposit required bonus issued as nominal travel bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat see terms at sportsbook Fandall dot com gambling problem called one hundred gambler or was a fandall dot com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1-109 with an Indiana 1-105-2247 hundred visit ksgambler.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit mdgaming health at Oregon, Maryland 1-100 gambler.net in West Virginia 1-805-2247 hundred in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org Or call a hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 24 seven supporter, Massachusetts or call 1-877 I hope a Y or text open Y in New York Let's dig in now to these college football semifinal playoff action games beginning with Alabama versus Michigan right now at Fandall Sportsbook, Michigan Is a one-and-a-half point favorite total in this game is 44 and a half net Let's start things off here by talking about the Michigan offense and they seem to slow down a bit toward the end of the year Well, whether it was a J. J. McCarty injury or whatever it may have been there were some blips there So I want to ask you what do your numbers say about the Michigan offense as they face off against this Alabama defense? My nose really like this Michigan offense, you know They're in the top five when I look at adjusted success rate Last year the run attack was better than the the passing game this year has actually been the opposite They the they are third and adjusted passing success rate Compared to 23rd for rushing it really has been JJ McCarty his evolution in the passing game I mean, I think they've they've actually been pretty good Recently I don't I think that is the strength of this unit And I think they're gonna do just fine heading into the game against a very good Alabama defense But I mean, I think this this I think they've kind of found another level with McCarty at the quarterback position And it does seem like it's been I don't want to say like hidden this year because they haven't had to use it a whole lot it just seems like they've been able to coast a lot and I think that that may be masking how good they are on that side just because like You don't put up gaudy numbers and you're up by 40 at in a third quarter every week So I feel like it's kind of gone under the radar. How good they've been overall this year Yeah, I think so I mean they like I don't I don't take a garbage time or anything But yeah, I think they they have been particularly good You know probably hit the their peak kind of towards the middle of the season when they're blown out Nebraska on the road Minnesota on the road You know, it hasn't quite been the same towards the end of the season, but Yeah, I mean, it's it's my numbers really like the offense and I don't see any reason to go against that So let's talk about the defense. I'm assuming your numbers like them as well Alabama's offense facing the top defense here if you look at Bill Connelly's sp plus over at ESPN So look at Alabama here. How do you see them faring when they are on offense? Right, I mean, you know, I think my numbers tend to be a little bit harder on this Michigan defense They're 18th when I look at adjusted success rate and that's simply because of the awful offenses They had to play within the the big 10 obviously Ohio State was good and they did fine in that game Not amazing, but they did fine But Minnesota and Nebraska some of these teams are not exactly anything to write home about I actually have them outside the top 10 When it comes to defense and you know, they really could have done better against Maryland in that game a game that they were supposed to kind of run away with but ended up being more of a coin flip, you know one possession game were where they really did need to to They really needed to show up to just win that game which is understandable given the situation But yeah, you know, I I mean, I'm not quite as high on the defenses as everyone else On the other side Alabama, you know, they should do pretty well against this Alabama offense This Alabama team has been one. It's been a couple different teams, right? You had the early season team or we didn't know who the quarterback was They have a pretty good performance against middle Tennessee, but then lose the Texas and then just have that awful performance against South Florida I went and took out those first three games and to see how they would do in my adjusted success rate For the full season, they were 25th when you took out those three games. They actually only moved up to 21st Mm-hmm. It's not like they all of a sudden became this elite offense towards the end of the year Which when Jaylen Milrow locked down the starting spot It's it's a good unit. It's not an elite unit So it's still probably advantage Michigan there Okay, so advantage Michigan on the defensive side and we're high the Michigan offense So Ed, let's turn now towards the traditional markets again Michigan minus one and a half total in this game is 44 and a half any read for you on either of those markets in this game Right, so the overall prediction is pretty interesting because when you take a look at numbers that tend to go with season-long averages You get a pretty big spread prediction for Michigan For example, my number is that you know use things like margin victory success rate yours for play You just look at the course of the season over the course of the season make my strength the schedule adjustments That data actually has Michigan by about six not quite as much as Bill Connelly who has Michigan by about eight and a half but you know, it's probably You know my model doesn't really work like that the one I trust more it tends to react more to more what has happened recently to these teams and You know Michigan hasn't been as good the last four games. We talked about that Maryland game It should have been a little bit easier than it was You know even in the game against Iowa they were able to make that margin pretty big because the turnovers and It wasn't necessarily a domination in terms of the underlying metrics So they've come down a little bit Alabama obviously gets a bump because of the game against Georgia really nice game there The underlying metrics actually did not hate them against Auburn, which is kind of weird because they really need a miracle to win that game So my number is that I usually trust more has Alabama As a slight favorite like point three points I'm not running to the window to bed out plus one and a half I do think overall for the course of the season. I do think you need to give Michigan the benefit of the doubt Going ahead. I'd probably bet I would on the side would probably take out of them plus one and a half But but it's a stay away for me Yeah, and looking at the markets right now pretty much in line with what you said and you said, you know You trust that model more there is a reason you've gone with that model because late season changes matter a lot I think that with the if you were to make the case in favor of Alabama would be that Milrow was a fresh starter They were getting him ramped up and things did look better towards the end of the year And we were talking about that Auburn game heading into the Georgia game You said that even that they were better than you might think based on what they needed to do in order to win that game So I get where your numbers are coming from there And I think that it's interesting though that there's such a big gap between the two models Do you get that pretty often given that this one is is that's pretty abnormal for you? It's pretty abnormal to see my number that I trust most Favor Alabama slightly and then see Bill have Michigan by almost nine that is very abnormal Yeah, it's very no I don't even know what to say beyond that You know, I wouldn't you know, I dug into my adjusted numbers right so that you know to take out some of those games I thought the the difference would be more drastic. It's not so I'm not exactly sure Why but there's just a big difference here. Okay, so strictly a lean towards Alabama there on the plus one and a half You've been doing a lot of player props though this year at across college football and the NFL And we got a lot of player props up over at Fandola Sports Book for this game right now When you look at the player problem market any number sent out to you is being good values Yeah, I like JJ McCarthy over 15 and a half rushing yards not much of a surprise here. I don't think this is big enough I think they are gonna run McCarthy that Everything is on the table against this Alabama defense. I also had this against Ohio State. It didn't work out I think McCarthy was still nursing a little bit of a leg injury I didn't think it would matter But it did when they decided to do a quarterback run They actually brought it in the third-stringer Alex or Gda to run that I don't think that's gonna I mean if you see where'd you come out, you know, this bet might lose, but I Like McCarthy over 15 and a half rushing yards I think that is gonna be a weapon and you know, he only has to break one Maybe have another carry not get sacked too many times for this to go over I like that prop so I mentioned my stepdad's in Michigan fan We're looking at the prop markets before we recorded and this is the one We both focused on was the McCarthy rushing prop and the thought process is like you said healthier now Then he was earlier on this year they haven't been in a lot of close games and This is when you see quarterbacks who are athletic enough to run which McCarthy very much is they run more in high leverage games And it doesn't get any more high leverage than this. So he's healthier High leverage game. They've not played a lot of close games throughout this year It's kind of the perfect storm and a lot of the close games they played occurred when he was hurt So I think it kind of all points to McCarthy over 15 and a half Rushing yards at minus 114. It's both the narrative of quarterbacks rushing more in high leverage games aligned with kind of just, you know, the The way that he plays I think that all does make a lot of sense. So I'm fully on board of that Yeah, it is about the way he plays, right? I mean if you remember two years ago They brought him in and the semi-final against Georgia And at Georgia defense was so dominant that all he could really do was try to take off and run Which he did a decent enough job with so it's certainly within his skill set and I expect him to run All right So you're on JJ McCarty over 15 and a half rushing yards minus 114 which can get right now at Fandall sports book Let's talk now about the second game right Available for this semi-final. It is Texas versus Washington right now at Fandall sports book Texas is a four and a half point favorite total 62 and a half for this game. This should be a delight Let's start things off here by talking about the Washington offense We talked a lot about this during the year ad where they hit a pretty big speed bump Towards the back half of the year Did you see anything in their win over or organ 34 31 to inspire confidence in their mentoring this one or Are they are you still concerned about the Washington offense here? Yeah, I saw something very important in that Oregon game and that was that Jalen McMillan was 100 percent McMillan is an elite receiver I think he's as good as Roman doon say who is a no-brainer first round pick and McMillan started out the season on fire in those first three games then hurt himself Try to come back for the Oregon game, but it was only able to take The first Oregon game and was only able to partake in a couple of snaps during that game They brought him back the last three games you know More snaps more targets with every single game, but you know, it really wasn't He really wasn't the same until organ where he It looked like he was back 100. So I think he had like 137 yards On nine targets or something like that and most importantly one of his Third and four late in the game organ needs to stop Who does Michael penix go to he goes to McMillan and McMillan was wide open It was an easy it was an easy easy conversion. So I think McMillan really matters You know, this is this is someone that I've been kind of looking at like this all year It kind of affected my analysis with the with the Oregon game and the first one So yeah, I did see something in the Oregon game and I mean right now he he's been hurt So he's not on draft boards I wouldn't be surprised if after two games like he's the first round pick Like that's the amount of talent this guy has I think washington's offense has a ceiling that no other offense In in this playoff has Yeah, michael panix is going to get a look in the nfl He has two nfl caliber receivers and and the third one is not not terrible by stretch Polk is polk is also a really good receiver. Not as good as the other two But yeah, I do see something in this offense and it's kind of weird because I've been I've been fading washington for a while, right And but now I don't know. I mean, I think McMillan's a really good player And I think he really does make a difference and I mean, he certainly did against orion Right and now has had more time to get healthier than he was before So the snap counts slowly rising you can expect a full version of him in this one But the washington defense did also have its issues during the course of the year and now facing a texas office With a very good efficiency mark. So what do you do the texas offense against this washington defense? Right. I mean overall like Washington has a lot of questions on the defense, but at the end of the day, they're 34th in my adjusted success rate That's not terrible. They were really good in the first half against orion Was that they were being good or orion was just bad? I don't know I mean, I guess you have to give washington's defense credit. They're not terrible And I think, you know, I think they can hold up against this texas offense So you mentioned McMillan and the impact he has had and we saw that impact against orion But as we turn towards the spread in the total in this game, obviously like you said, your numbers are very reactive to What we've seen recently and that data the more recent data will include a lot of gains from McMillan was either out or Not fully ramped up. So i'm curious what your numbers say about this game with this spread right now At texas minus four and a half in the total at 62 and a half Right. I mean, my numbers have texas by two The the the model certainly picked up on how good they were against orion and then the last time out I knew my model was going to move and it did. Um, you know, so it's showing a little value I I mean, I I would like I like washington plus four and a half much more than i like alabama Plus one and a half or or whatever it is I do think Which is kind of weird because again, I've been fading them for all the rest of the season but I think we've seen enough from the defense and McMillan is Is an nfl caliber receiver And when you have three of those guys The impact of adding one more, you know, they had two with polk Uh, nor dunza when when uh, mcmillan is out But when you add in one more guy It just it just stresses the defense so much to have one more person in there that it makes those other guys more Effective as well Yeah, absolutely. Also, uh, texas is might be missing a cornerback ryan watts He's probably their most experienced corner. He did not play in the big 12 championship game And then, you know, they're relying on a freshman and a sophomore Uh, who are presumably very talented, but It's a pretty significant edge to washington when you look at their pass-off fence versus Texas's defense, which has been great. I mean, they've been they've been really good I just think I think washington is quite a ceiling with what they're going to put out there under your state Okay, so that is into washington plus four and a half, which is minus 115 Right now at fan dual sports, but let's dig into player props for this game as well when you look at those markets Ed anything stands out stand out to you at right now right well I I really think a dunza and mcmillan should have the same Uh receiving yards like if you look if you look at them for Like I mean, I think their equal is good And they don't so a dunza is almost at 100 which I think you can justify because he's been really good But mcmillan at at 78 and a half. I think that's a little bit low There's actually a better number over at dk right now. I like over on that total I do think he has a really good game You know if you look at games this week This week if you look at games this season in which you had five or more targets mcmillan's going over this in four or five games, right? And the one time he didn't was the game before The oregon championship game and you can argue that was like his second game kind of coming back them working him back in there um I don't know when you watch him play like he's he's super talented and quick and and hard to cover and and organ I was a really good defense and and they couldn't cover him especially when it mattered most So mcmillan Yeah, mcmillan at faddle sportsbook even is 78 and a half versus a dunza is at 96 and a half. So 18 yard gap in there and like you said, they're both very talented It's going to be hard to cover both those guys simultaneously I do think it makes a lot of sense. So mcmillan at faddle specifically 78 and a half has always shop around Trying to get the best number you can But Ed is saying the gap between those two guys should not be As big as it is right now Any final thoughts for you Ed before we send off the good people to watch these very fun football games on monday Yeah, I mean, I think whoever wins alabama michigan is going to be favored in in a championship game Not much of a surprise um But yeah, I mean, I think it should be good. I mean these are these are teams that are You know, I mean the biggest injuries are probably for texas. Uh, you know, we talked about brian lots They did lose their leading rusher, uh, jonathan brooks earlier in the season and So, you know, those are the otherwise pretty healthy teams all the way around. So, um Yeah, it should be it should be a good set of three games alabama right now two to one to win the national championship alabama or michigan is two to one alabama plus 220 texas plus 250 in washington all the way down at plus 650 At faddle sportsbook their money line is plus 152 For this game specifically as they take on texas there That's all we got for today here on covering the spread as a reminder We are back once again tomorrow talking nf l week number 17 Of course, we'll have some thoughts on the national championship game as well later on as we get to That very fun one whoever may emerge from these semi finals ed. What is going on if for you this week at the powering? Yeah, I'm writing my Sports betting email newsletter. Uh, check out five nuggets saturday if you are looking for sports betting action on any given weekend I try to be there 51 out of 52 weeks a year if if you want to bet something I guess august is kind of hard because there's not much going on nascar at that weekend So but anyways check that out at thepowerank.com. We got summer olympics this year So you might be okay actually there you can get some uh some marathon bets in again Yeah, that would be awesome. I think I did I I think I was able to do A pitching prop through august. Okay. Well, like I like to have multiple like right now you come any weekend and there's a two maybe three Uh bets we had three last week. Yeah, I think it's been two the week before and it's not just me I curate these from from other people Um, so but in august you are gonna get futures and stuff like that. So, um But yeah, anyways, I'm looking for your specific distance running Bets that's what I need in my life once we get into august So go to the powering.com to sign up for that loot newsletter You can find add on twitter at the power bank and you can find the football analytics show Wherever you get your podcasts as well. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis You can find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research again And make sure you check out prime time ton to break down Thursday night football between the jets and the browns right here in the same podcast feed and over on fan Dual tv plus we are back again tomorrow to break down nfl week 17 We'll talk to all of you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network