 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody, and welcome to another edition of theaccesotrade.com. Weekend update show, hope everybody is doing great, hope everybody is having a wonderful weekend. Only two weeks left of the year guys, that's it. Two weeks left of the year, which is an incredible, incredible bull market year this year versus last year. You guys remember last year, we were down 36% on the Nasdaq 100, we'll get to that in a second. From last year, nothing in the economy really has changed, but hell of a disconnect from Main Street. If you are brand new to the channel guys, all you think we ask is if you like the content, if it creates value for you, continue to create value for you. All you think to do is just take a second, just hit that little thumbs up button, like, share, subscribe, all that good stuff. And our job is to try to give you the biggest unbiased way to look at the market for the next day. So thank you very much for tuning in. So this is how crazy this market is, right? And when I say crazy, it's a good thing, right? It's absolutely a good thing. Number one, last year, we talked about the Nasdaq 100 down 36%, it was the end of the world, and then out of nowhere, the market just got tired. It just got tired of going down just the same way in a bull market, stocks get tired going up. And what happened was, well, we kind of made back all the 36% that we lost last year on the Nasdaq 100. As a matter of fact, if you look at the year-to-day totals, they're quite staggering. The Dow Jones Industrial Lab, we'll use the diamonds as a proxy, closed at 52-week highs on Friday with almost nearly a 9.5%, 10% gain for the year. It's very, very impressive. The SPY also closed at 52-week highs on Friday, which is basically a 20% gain for the year. But the creme de la creme, just an unbelievable performance by the Nasdaq 100 who have not closed at 52-week highs, but start the last two weeks of the year up more than 47% for the year. I think at this juncture, and I'm trying to be as nice as possible, but I think at this juncture, two things we kind of know. Number one, three stocks are not responsible for the whole rise of the Nasdaq 100. I think that was a big crutch a lot of traders were talking about for the first three, four months. And number two, drumroll please, the market doesn't suck. The market never sucks, the market's never bad or good, it's the market. All it does is facilitate buy and sell orders, your process, your approach, the stocks you trade, the time of day you trade, that's what's either good or bad has nothing to do with the market. So the idea that the market sucks as the S&P is up 20% for the year and the Nasdaq is up 47% of the year, it probably doesn't fly anymore. So if you are a brand new trader and you're trying to figure out which way your career is headed, number one, just sit down and look at charts. Forget about opinions, forget about what other people are saying, other people's opinions, other people's viewpoint, their narrative, sit down and look at charts. As crazy as it sounds, technical analysis works. That's why we reclaim the 50-day moving average all the way back in January, right? All the way back in January, this would start at this massive, massive run-up and that's the whole point of technical analysis. Above the 50-day bullish, below the 50-day bearish and you can start your career there. So let's talk about one little thing before we get going. We talked about this in the webinar on Friday, it was Thursday or Friday, I think it was Friday. Two things you need to have as a trader, forget about the process, forget about the money management skills, forget about all that stuff. Two things you really need to have before you start your trading career, number one, you have to have a sense of humor. That's number one, if you don't have a sense of humor, you're going to take this business so seriously that your head is going to explode. You have to laugh at things. Sometimes things are so ridiculous in this business, we'll get to that in an example. Things sometimes are just so ridiculous that you just turn around and go, this is just funny, right? It's just funny and move on because if you don't, your insides are going to start to boil. You're going to implode from the inside. And the second thing, you have to have thick skin. Market's not fair, life is not unfair. Get over it. Get over it. Things happen. That's the point of life. That's why life throws you curveballs every single day. Things happen. If you don't have thick skin and you don't have a sense of humor, you better start looking for a plan B. Every single trader that I know has been doing this for at least 20. And again, all my buddies, we started at the same time between 99 and 2001. All my friends that are still in this business are doing this 20 plus years. All of us have several characteristics. We're all out of our minds. For example, I'm a Gemini. I never got diagnosed, but I'm pretty damn sure I'm bipolar and dyslexic. I'm pretty damn sure I am. But you have to have thick skin. You have to have a personality because if you don't, guys, just think about this. Every single day, you're putting your hard-earned money on the line every single day. And you're watching. And again, I've been saying this for years, take off your P&L, right? Just click off that box. But most traders are watching in real time money going to your account. Euphoria. Money go out of your account. Depression. Money go into your account. Oh my God. Money go out to your account. I want to die. Right? You can't have that, folks. I'm telling you, this business is a unique business. It's not even a real business. It's only about 30, 35 years old. And the key is to put yourself in a situation. You get so systematic. You get so good in that art of technical analysis that nothing bothers you. Of course, we're human beings. You're going to make mistakes all the time. I have brain farts all the time. But the key is put yourself in a position to try to be as robotic, as systematic as possible. Because if you can't laugh at yourself, if you can't laugh at external factors that sometimes are affecting your money, you are going to implode. You're going to leave this business prematurely. And you're never going to fulfill your potential because you're not going to have enough screen time to get over those mental hurdles. So again, have a good sense of humor, haptic skin, and good things. Eventually it will click. If not, it's going to be very, very tough for you to navigate. So let's talk about it, right? If you guys remember, we left off Wednesday, right? Because there's no Thursday video. We left off the Wednesday. Remember when AMD gave their presentation at their AI event? And the stock just couldn't rally. It was one of those sell the news situations. You guys remember what we were talking about on Wednesday? Hey guys, I'm watching. I even give you guys the price. 1635, 1635, right? 1635 helped three times. I go, boy, this thing starts building below 1635. This thing is going to get hit. Apparently this is one of those situations where you better have a really good sense of humor. Because it was a very delayed reaction. So Thursday morning AMD gets upgraded. And not only does it not confirm this bottom channel, it goes on an ignorant run. If you traded AMD on Thursday, Friday was a little bit of a continuation, but if you traded AMD on Thursday, you kind of saw what happened. Here is the 60 minute move. So the stock gets upgraded, right? And the stock was up about four and a half, $5. And I said to everybody, go, hey guys, let's wait for a dip. There's no way in hell I'm chasing AMD up $4 at the open, right? AMD, it's not like you're chasing Tesla in the video. It's AMD $4 at the open. The damn thing went up like $12. There wasn't a down take that day. Just absolutely remarkable. And it really does kind of hammer the point home that I talk about every single video. Guys, don't anticipate, right? You could be wrong theoretically. Again, I said this, I'm wrong every day. Again, when you have a plan, the only way you're wrong is if it confirms you mistreated the stock. If you have a plan and it doesn't confirm, who cares, right? What's the difference? We were watching 1635, 1635, 1635, 1635. It got nowhere near 1635. So it's okay to be theoretically wrong. Just don't be financially wrong. And that's what a lot of traders do. They look at a chart and they start anticipating before the stock confirms. And usually bad things are going to happen. In this case, boy, oh boy, what an absolute rally. Completely delayed reaction off their AI event. They get upgraded and then it just really set the fuse to a very, very aggressive 24-hour session on AMD. Same thing with Google, right? What was the last time? What was the last time you saw Google went up like $10? Talk about Thursday's action on Google. Google was up five, okay? It's not like it's Amazon, okay? It's not like, again, it's Nvidia or Tesla, Netflix, Microsoft, Meta. It's Google, right? If you trade Google and you notice, damn thing on a normal day, it trades like a $1.5 spread. $1.5 range. It was up five and a half pre-market. And the thing went up another $4. So incredible, incredible action in the technology space with only two weeks left, only two weeks left of the year. Again, can they run this market right into the last second of 2023? Absolutely. I mean, why not? Again, anything could happen. The market could roll over tomorrow and we could sell off in the next two weeks. But boy, oh boy, where's that catalyst, right? You have to at least have some sort of catalyst to try to figure that out. But not every single stock is round, okay? Which is the most amazing point. And we want to start off with, I don't know if you guys can see it on camera. We stand up, right? Got my Tesla shirt on. It's my lucky Tesla shirt on. Tesla has more full starts out of this range. And again, this has been sitting in this range here from basically for a month now, okay? As you can see here, this stock has had more full starts than might be love of Jets offensive line, okay? Every single time you think this damn thing is gonna take off, it stalls out again. Here's the one little thing that we always talk about in these videos that I try to reiterate all the time. I believe in data, okay? I believe in collecting data. I believe if something doesn't go down, well, it must go right up. So if you guys remember when the stock, and this is after earnings, if you guys remember for about two weeks straight, they were literally cutting their prices on various models every single day. And every single day, the stock would open down three, four points. And every single day, they would literally start embracing those gap downs and rallying the stock. And it got so good at one point, they just had a six, seven point rally above the 50 day moving average and then failed and then reclaimed and then failed and then reclaimed and then failed and here we are, right? But the point is it kept on deflecting bad news with the price cuts, right? Because usually price cuts means, well, there's a surplus, right? There's a surplus of cars that they can't get rid of. Basically, when a company raises prices, it means there's a huge demand for their product. So they kept on neglecting bad news, deflecting bad news. And then Friday, right? You saw on Friday, Bernstein, Bernstein, remember Bernstein from the accountant? Well, the accountant from Scarface? Bernstein, right? Or the Bernstein Bears? But Bernstein, right, the boutique broker, an analyst came out and says, we see a 40%, 40% decline in Tesla shares for 2024. Maybe they do, maybe they don't. So what happened with Tesla on Friday, right? Tesla on Friday only went down like about a dollar and a half, $2 on that news. Usually when you get some really bad news in the stock, that's Tesla down 7, 8, 10 points. It was only down $2. And the stock goes green in the day. And not only did the stock goes green in the day, and not only did they start deflecting this bad news, they continuously are coming for the 250s, the 255s, the 260s, the 265s, all for the next two weeks, right? All for the next two weeks going to December. Is this finally going to come out of this channel, right? Is this finally going to, because keep this in mind, out of all the beta names, this is the only stock that hasn't really gone on to this gorilla run, right? Just like mine. This is the only stock. Is this finally going to be the week? And I feel like I've been saying that every week, but the funny thing is Tesla has been giving us gray trains. It gave us a $7 move out of this channel, gave us another $7 move out of this channel, gave us a $13 move out of this channel, this last channel here gave us another $7 move. So it's not the point we can't get moves on this channel. The point is it just can't follow through from that big move. So I want to see if there's any more negative news on Tesla at the start of the week and the more they continue to engulf that bad news or negativity or bad notes, whatever the case may be, the higher probability, it finally will come out of this channel. Will it happen this week? Next week? We don't know, but again, like I say every single day, don't you need to be prepared? That's something we definitely want to keep an eye on. Some other names I definitely want to watch this week. Look at Amazon, guys. Keep an eye on Amazon. It's getting super duper tight. Had that last flag and now it's just consolidating that flag. If this thing could just get above this whole channel here and reclaim the Bollinger Band, this thing could really, really wake up. Look at Meta. We had several pretty good Meta Pivots this week, especially off the five-day reclaim, off the 10-day reclaim. And this is now the highest close in this whole formation, reclaiming back... What is this here? Reclaiming back the... What is this here? The middle band of the Bollinger Band. This is the highest close. If Meta can just get above the 1130 highs, this thing has a lot of room up. So again, definitely one to watch. Apple has been absolutely great. We'll get to the Pivots in a second. It just continues to move higher and nice grind. The upgrade came a couple of days ago. It's just trapping shorts. Any weakness on Apple, guys, as you can see, it just keeps on hugging the orange line, which is the five-day. Every single time it gets down to the five-day, this thing keeps on waking up. AMD looks like, again, any dip, guys. Any dip on AMD needs to be bought. It's just absolutely on fire right now. If the market continues, it will continue as well. Again, look where we were just three days ago. Talking about, hey, the stock just got rejected on bad news. You know what that means? Yeah, it means it's about to go higher. That's what it means. So basically it means nobody knows anything and don't damn confirm. But, you know, beautiful looking chart. Obviously, Tesla we're watching as well. Let me give you guys a cheapy. Let me give you guys a cheapy. So, usually, you know, it's very rare that I talk about small cap stocks here. But look at space, right? SPCE, right? Richard Branson company. Look how tight this thing is getting below supply. You see that, guys? You see how tight this thing is getting off supply? And the reason why I say that, there was a couple of buyers came in. I forgot which series, so I apologize. It was either the June or July 2024 $5 calls. Basically means they're betting out of the money that the stock is going to double for 2024. Keep an eye on this thing. If this thing starts getting above this range, we don't know if it will. It's a small cap stock. But if space gets above this range here, maybe this thing could start waking up to a really, really strong-looking chart. So there's some names I'm definitely watching for this week. Let's talk about pivots from Friday. As you can imagine, again, just really aggressive action, really aggressive action technology. Rollblocks, right? Rollblocks 4220 needs to build. 4220 got basically rejected to 4220. Put on a high of 4220. Nicki Minaj set up a Rollblocks account. Anyway, still watching this thing for this week. Apple 195 needs to build. Apple took out that 195. Again, continues to go higher. Went up to 196. Highest close now. And this literally is whole formation here. Apple looks higher as long as the market continues. Roku never gave a second entry. 158 if it builds below can flush. Stopped at 118, rallied back. AMD just didn't give me a big scalp. I missed the bounce. I took the 130, 45 premarket highs. Went up to 31. Once I saw there was a seller in the crowd, I gave him some stock to make some break even. This was definitely the big trade of the day. NVIDIA 46630 and 470 needs to confirm. New traders, let me give you a piece of advice. If a breakout is at 46630, 46630 or 470, the premarket highs, I'm not the smartest guy in the world, but you probably shouldn't be buying at 475, right? The whole point of technical analysis is giving you levels, pivot points, levels, points of interest that the stock should have price action off that level. By the time it's four, five, $6 higher, you're a seller. You're not a buyer. So entries matter. Pivots matter. Price action matters, but you have to have your edge. Your edge is at 66. Your edge is at 70. The damn thing is not an edge at 75. You should be making sales here. But again, a huge move on NVIDIA 466 all the way up to 477. It has one hurdle, guys. It has one hurdle to get above, which was the November channel here that it got stopped. If they could get above that November channel, you guys know what NVIDIA does. It could really, really start stretching. Meta continues to be a beast. $328.25 needs to build. Here was Meta. We talked about that earlier. It took out the $328. Again, it's a 10-day moving average to the birth of the trade. Put up a $5 candle. Again, it has one hurdle, one more hurdle to get through for a potential another run. And I believe that is it. Yep, I believe that's it. So that's it, guys. That's it. If you are joining us in the live webinar and you are interested in Pivots, use this weekend to watch the Pivots. It's about eight and a half, nine hours. You don't need to do it one day, but you have to understand the moving parts. Again, I could feed you Pivots until you're blue in the face, but if you don't understand the moving parts and the importance of these levels, the reason supply and demand matters, then you're cheating, you're developing. You're wasting my time as well. So guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless. I will see you all in the field tomorrow and have an amazing Sunday. Take care.