 Very good morning. It is Friday 30th of April and it's the last trading day of the week and the month and Just before I begin to talk you through what's been going on in terms of the overnight and what to expect for the day ahead Don't forget. We've got the latest market watch podcast from us and myself and head of trading appears current It's going to go out in a few hours time a bit later today Actually, we're going to talk a little bit more about kind of psychology around trading Gonna kind of interview Pierce to a certain extent about kind of his Times in his career and he's stumbled upon a real challenging time or a big loss that he can recall That was kind of tough to to mentally handle and how he went about addressing that and also on the upside as well You know the kind of the euphoric nature of a payoff when you've had a really unexpectedly large trade And how do you manage that process? So it's going to be a really useful one I think in terms of practical tips on the mindset side So do check that out if you go on to any of the major podcast platforms like Apple podcast or Spotify Just search from market watch Follow and then you'll get an alert every time a new episode goes out every Friday All right. Well, look, let's get straight into it and talk about what's been going on And we actually closed positive on Wall Street gains ranging from around a half to seven tenths of 1% across the major three indices Really seesaw day yesterday for those who are in markets will obviously be aware. It's almost like a perfect V shape here in the S&P 500 after we saw some quite Aggressive selling pressure coming out of the gate only to be counteracted then shortly after the exit of European Traders to come all the way back up and then we've just drifted back down again during the Asia Pacific session My take here is still one Generally from a technical perspective I think of a degree of Consolidation at this point if you look on the daily chart, I think yesterday Was quite key just generally for the week We were kind of knocking on the door of this previous high that had been restricting price action throughout the entire week Which was the prior weeks high at around forty one eighty three and a half in the S&P We closed firmly above that yesterday and we pulled back a little bit here today So I'd still on the higher time frames look at forty one eighty three and a half as a key area for the weekly close Can we close above that? Which will you know, perhaps see consolidation again between that kind of eighty to forty two hundred level While we just kind of see how things play out going further forward into into next week Otherwise other charts just while we're on it to have a look at oil has had a really great week We're a little bit negative so far as the session is concerned right now We've drifted south during the Asia pack session But just putting my my indicator on here if we look at where we were from the low, we obviously respected Technically this this low at around 60 66 in front month futures, which was the low going back to last Thursday I've had three tests on that level So that's a really strong point on the low of this recent trend But going from the low to high we have Risen the best part of 8% in fact. We've gone from 60 66 up to highs of around 6547 so a little bit just coming off the top here I think is absolutely no cause for concern or alarm at this point and doesn't really surprise me We have broken through that That kind of trend line that was in play through the course of this rise that we've had really throughout the week And just zooming in on the price action a little closer here In terms of the setup for today, so that area there We've already respected has been good level of support Which I've marked up which was the high that we had back on the 20th in the prior week And we had the failed push through that back mid-week on Wednesday Then it's acted as bit of a fairly rough But a zone of support around 64 38 which is just holding price on that downward move seen in the Asia pack session On the upside if we continue to push up you've got the pivot seen at 66 69 as well was some of the Asia pack Respect briefly on the support and resistance side of things So I'd be looking at that on the upside if we continue to recover Any further pullback in price would be looking down at these levels at 64 handle 96 Just below you've got this area of support that came into play during the early hours of this time yesterday And then beyond that of the s1 then you go further down to 63 63 so Generally oil going to finish higher for the week Irrespective if we have any pullbacks certainly I don't think we're going to get anywhere near down the lower zone of this today Certainly not from a scheduled fundamental point of view. There's nothing to really prompt that move At this point in time barring anything unexpected, of course Otherwise elsewhere tea notes I've just marked this up with a trend line following the downward move that we've had Throughout the week. We've had a little bit of volatility. Of course that this was the brief Pop in prices that we had on the back of Jerome Powell, but this is exactly really what I was talking about the briefing yesterday I don't think Powell what he did this Wednesday was anything new at all He just reiterated really what the Fed have been telling us as a marketplace It's just that market participants were kind of misaligned and you're not buying into the Fed rhetoric And that was a function that of market pricing rather than a fundamental change in the Fed strategy And so that move faded throughout yesterday all Thursday session, which I think was absolutely to be expected We then had a bit of a pullback obviously as the equity market was was was pulling off a little bit at that point and then We've kind of held it at the moment So technically speaking any further push up I'd just be keeping an eye on this upper side of the trend mine at 31 Which was around the the high you've just tested around this morning We're just hugging the pivot for the time being So generally speaking though yields a touch higher as far as the the weakest concern, but only moderately so Irrespective of course of the good numbers that we've had, you know, whether you're looking at consumer confidence whether you're looking at GDP whether you're looking at Jobless claims all of these numbers indicative of that general more constructive Narrative going forward for growth in the US economy In the currency markets, the dollar index as far as it's trading right now is up fractionally Just short of 1 cent to 1% Just keeping on the major pairs as far as cable is concerned here Just getting a little squeezed in recent price action over the last 24 hours So worst keeping an eye on the downside here You've got the high that we printed on Monday Which then defines then a relative key level for for price of where we're trading at the moment the low yesterday And we're just around that level at the moment could break out some of this recent consolidation phase For for cable any downside move you've got that kind of double top going back to 39 26 The s1 residing just below there and perhaps the breakdown of there if we were to see emergence of some dollar strength With these technical levels breaching because euro dollar likewise Not quite as clean, but a fairly similar set up you know if you're looking At these at these highs that we were printing back on Monday, and then this kind of near-term Support area that we have had over the course of the last two two or three days And so if that does trade heavy obviously would be targeting down and around 21 130 here in the euro and if that all comes into to play technically on the bridge with cable as well And some just prevailing down the strength and that could see some some nice downward Directional moves there short-term again nothing to Take more medium-term positions just from an intraday perspective. All right. Well, let's just get into some Some headlines so as you can see though, you know despite the recovery that we had Late in the US session in that kind of v-shape move in the US equities particularly for the S&P not quite so for the Nasdaq Generally futures have drifted south during the Asia-Pac session Asian equities were lower overnight albeit fairly modest Chinese regulators have imposed wide-ranging restrictions on financial divisions of 13 companies Including some of the the big guns like Tencent also bike dance in a broadening effort to rein in the nation's tech giants as a reminder, obviously, it's a bank holiday in the UK on Monday, so I'll probably look to get out a look ahead for the week on Sunday and I'll publish that But also for the Asia-Pac region It's an extended weekend in Japan for Golden Week in China for Labor Day Who will remain closed through to Wednesday? Just say away aware in that region overnight. We did have the Chinese manufacturing PMI for April What did that look like? Well? Here's a chart so you can see So you've got the white line manufacturing PMI the purples non-manufacturing PMI So manufacturing of April came in at 51.1 just slightly below expectations of 51.7 Non-manufacturing 54.9 versus expected 56.1 The K-Shin manufacturing was a slight beat that 51.9 against 50.8 expected all in all No real read across though into for the European Open this morning. We did add off the market earnings last night Despite conversation mean peers had some of the speculation at the beginning of the week No stock split coming by way of Amazon But their shares trading up about 2.4 percent in aftermarket trade last night. So by the numbers their revenues 108.5 billion dollars, you heard me, right Versus expected 104.56 so a beat and obviously a phenomenally large number earnings per share $15 79 cents against $9.69 expected Online online store net sales were stronger quarterly income was up and they see Q2 net sales in a range of 110 to 116 billion the previous estimate was for around 108.35 billion so a positive forward guidance as well upgrading what they see for Q2 net sales So their shares were up Higher more than 3% at some point, but up around 2.4 percent at the close of aftermarket Twitter though the opposite down 11 and a half percent for Twitter They have been bid into the release Lot of the expectation was that the advertising revenue kind of bump that we saw in some of the other Related advertisers like alphabet Google and Facebook Facebook really had a good session yesterday Twitter didn't didn't quite stack up with the numbers. They did have a Surgeon digital spending But actually one of the things that people were looking at was that the they missed user growth expectations User growth was up. It just wasn't up as aggressive that some were looking for Also, they see Q2 revenues 980 million to 1.08 billion previous expectations were for 1.05 billion So a little bit extension on the low end of that forecast and the average Monetizable daily active users DA use came in at 199 million which are basically in line with expectations But that in itself was seen as a disappointment. So they got hit quite hard in aftermarket trade On the earning side of things you've got Exxon mobile chevron I kind of big ones to look out for pre-market in UK and Europe You've got Astro Barclays coming out the FTSE BBVA in Europe BMP Paribas coming out in France E&I another firm to look out for as well with the earnings today Otherwise one of the other stories just briefly to mention Haven't really talked about coven and vaccine too much really this week And obviously there's still a really serious situation developing in the lives of India and some other hot spots around the world But from a global markets point of view still looking beyond that at the moment and relative stability seen as far as on that Subject for for major asset classes US denominated But one thing on the vaccine side that I saw yesterday was AstraZeneca executives have struggled to pull together the full data necessary To apply for US approval of its COVID-19 shot according to people familiar with the matter That further delays then the efforts to secure the FDA's go-ahead The company Astra reportedly told US officials it might need until mid-May to finish its application Previously the company has said it only needed up till mid-April so overall Astra's really gone through the mill with the actual vaccine in itself when it's associated with blood clots to its submission and validity of its data and So I guess they're just playing on the side of prudency here trying to give the full data set to the FDA But just goes some way to show the struggles of which they even counted on this particular Front which seems to be a little bit more unique to them than perhaps some of the other companies the other pharmaceutical companies I don't think this really is a big negative. I don't think this is something to get too worried about I just wanted to make you aware of it Far as the day is concerned Just looking forward Few things for sure that you need to just clock on your radar from the German data That we've already just had We just update my my newsfeed so I can I can bring you those latest numbers because we just shooting this We have gone through seven o'clock now And I think my calendar is incorrect here in terms of the German figures But nonetheless we do have the eurozone is the main focus is the CPI flash year-on-year April Figure and that is expected to come in at 1.6 percent Which is a higher number a fairly substantial increase in the previous 1.3 But as noted by by analysts, this is largely attributable To the widely flagged year-on-year base effects if you think about the slump in energy prices last April It doesn't really come as much as surprised the fact that on the year-on-year basis that number is going to be much higher And actually if you look at the year-on-year ex food and energy It's a much lower figure and it's expected to be absolutely unchanged at 1 percent On the GDP side of things In actuality, we're going to print negative 2 percent year-on-years expectations quarter corner minus 0.8 technically speaking this is going to be Consecutive quarters of negative growth, which is classified as a technical recession However, I don't necessarily think that that's going to particularly spook the market neither would an increase in inflation Because of those aforementioned reasons I think with the inflation side is to be expected as discussed I think on the growth side, although it's not a great state It's negative compared to the figure that we saw obviously that was very high in the US yesterday The point being is is that I think everyone is accustomed to the idea that going forward things are only going to improve From here on out, you know all things being equal of course So I think people are aware that the reopening in the likes of Germany France Italy and so on as the vaccinations continue Will improve and are willing to look beyond this short-term q1 negativity that we've had with the technical recession that we're about to see So I wouldn't over interpret it in a negative way, I guess is my summary late one this afternoon You've got to call PCE price index coming out of the states. You've also got Chicago PMI as well coming out this afternoon Expected to still be very elevated albeit Slightly softening from the prior number the Michigan numbers are final reading so nothing to get too worried about And then the earnings we've we've already covered. So that is it I'm going to let you get on with your with your trading day Don't forget to check out the podcast if you're watching this delayed on YouTube Don't forget to subscribe to the channel and as they say we won't be active so much on Monday for the UK holiday But I'll try my best to get a briefing out for the week ahead on Sunday at some point. All right Take care guys and have a lovely weekend