 Hi, my name's Liam road currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis and before we get started Please press the like button. Please press the like button and subscribe as well as the notification bell so that when these videos do come up you're notified and You know, it's just a free way to really kind of support the channel And if you do like the content, it's a free way again to support the channel gets the YouTube algorithm going, right? So Our trading process is to apply fundamental and technical analysis fundamental analysis to establish our directional bias and technical analysis supply and demand strategies to really kind of time trade entries risk management and Establish and profit targets. So starting off with the week ahead and week ahead All eyes are turning to the Federal Reserve's policy statement due on Wednesday As well as the US jobs report on Friday, which will probably point to another month of employment gains, which is positive, right? Actually, I think just zoom in a little bit So worldwide PMI surveys will also be in the spotlight as well as monetary policy action by central banks in the UK That's going to be another massive one Australia and that's pretty much those are the two that we you know, we Central banks that we do look at so UK on Australia Australia not so much really, but of course, it's going to be keenly watched for any Any clues as to what they potentially may do a monetary policy the UK are Looking to high crates, but let's see it's a bit of a complex one Which we'll get into in a sec when we start to look at the in-depth technicals and fundamentals so looking at the dollar index first of all and the DXY and last week I Was saying that the the DXY Is the Parvati's resistance probably to the upside a bit more of a pullback and this is pretty much what happened prices came into the you know this demand zone and pretty much shot up on the Friday and The dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against Or weakness against other currencies like the euro the yen and the pound and again Parvati's resistance being really to the upside prices have been trending ever since the Federal Reserve pretty much came out back in June and Said that they were looking to to taper and potentially look to high crates Next year although that may not come to fruition as far as hiking rates But definitely tapering is is is on the card so ING Federal Reserve preview job done right the Fed officials agree that substantial further Progress has been made on both the inflation and employment mandates with the QE program Have is having done its job and the COVID cases subsiding it is time to announce a slowing in the rate of asset purchases and that's positive because Central Bank were buying pretty much government debt right government assets and supporting the economy so now the They're reducing those asset purchases is a sign that the economy is self-sufficient pretty much So QE will end in the first half of 2022 so more positivity with Attention already switching to rate hikes. We expect a minimum of two next year in fact, but let's see what happens So again, nothing but positivity around the dollar So really when you're looking to trade you know, it's really understanding the bigger picture and Looking for busy pullbacks, right? Sometimes these pullbacks can take weeks It's pulled back on the dollar index and you wouldn't necessarily trade a dollar index But you'd look for confluences on the dollar index, you know that pullback took one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven twelve days nearly two weeks to kind of pull back and But it was worth it, right once prices did actually come right down into that zone And then there was a buying opportunity buying confluences. That's pretty much what you want to do from a sell trade perspective, we've got to look at both sides of the markets because You know got to be It's not financial advice I've got to obviously give you the the other side of things. There is still a supply zone Up at the highs around here So if you do think that the dollar is expensive or something changes with regards to risk sentiment or the fundamentals Then this area here, I think just above that, you know, the 94 50s to the 94 70s 74s will be a decent area to look for any kind of short trades Moving on to the dollar yen and dollar yen again Price is kind of pulling back into this zone. I did say last week. I didn't wasn't really feeling that Area as a as a level to kind of get long even though it's a nice demand zone For me it was just because of expensive price fire It's morning of an expensive area But if you didn't manage to get, you know, some pips out of that pull back into this zone last week and again Right there on the Thursday, then there was pretty much some decent pips in there for a buy So again for me, I'm probably more looking at Proof of value. So I want prices to kind of prove that there's the dollar is Is a buy and then maybe a pullback into a bit of a demand zone before getting long But anyone who did get long I am overall very bullish on the dollar dollar yen I'm very bearish on the yen overall. They are lagging way behind and I do want to get in the position on the yen and If it's not against the the dollar then it will be against another stronger currency Moving on to the actually matter of fact note before I do that. There is the sell trade decent fresh area of supply right at the 14 114 50s and It's a profit taking potentially here But ultimately if the market is expecting rate hikes not saying that it won't reverse here It could do could pull back again. Nobody knows to this area could even pull back all the way down here But ultimately when you zoom out, I think the price prices should want want to go higher If the the data supports the narrative of a stronger dollar moving on to the dollar Swiss Dollar Swiss again prices came down more into it did react off of this area on Monday There were some pips in there and then we've come down into a bit more fair value area If you take fair value meaning that the low was absolute bargain of the year So the start of the year in January 2021 this year It was a zero point eighty seven cents and the high of the year was around was that zero point ninety four Seven cents then this is actually fair value right in between an expensive area and a cheap area is fair value You know, so that's cheap. That's expensive fair value. So pretty much pulled back and it kind of bounced off it You know came down to just right near that 91 round number and started to move to the upside Which I do think again the power for these resistance is to the upside the Swiss National Bank are lagging behind the US dollar so potentially Again, I don't know, you know this week weather prices will definitely go to the upside but probably probably ballistic The probabilities I should say of of prices going higher from here I think are definitely worth On on or on my side anyway, because it's not a financial advice if prices I think come down to this 90 Area, I think this is an absolute bargain and I'll look into jumping on that. Anyway, I can Again depending on if the data supports the narrative moving on to the dollar CAD Dollar CAD I think that again you got two kind of strong currencies So that's the reason why you really kind of got this stuff. This I guess a ranging market state, you know fair value State where you've got basically buyers and sellers in agreement between the exchange rate of the dollar and the Canadian dollar I still think the poverty resistance is probably more to the downside and Any pullbacks into that zone would be decent Buyers for the Canadian dollar, although I think the dollar the US dollar is is is a buy against the Canadian dollar Canadian dollar. I'm not so sure so we could see that happen if you do want to be a buyer with a dollar right now decent But I think there are definitely better trades Out there moving on to the pound dollar and the pound My overall bias was short. I was saying this last week I really want your prices to kind of come up a bit more and it was also a level just above this So 1 3 8 3 3 6 I was talking about in the group and prices just didn't come up So I didn't really get a trade in on the short side if you did manage to get short on this brilliant Well done to you. You should be in some decent profit I think that level of demand now is gone and talking about Fundamentally's fundamentally on the pound investors show fear of central bank errors in short-term bonds So the bond traders are the smartest People really in the market. They are very sensitive to economic shifts And inflation and and in GDP so the two-year debt Takes a strain in sign investors think policymakers will end up reversing rate rate rises, which is Which is quite a shock, but You know the the focal point of the global drop in government bond prices a shift to short-term debt as High inflation spooks investors who worry that our response from central banks could not be economic recovery, of course so The feeling is is that the central bank or do inflation is is going higher a rate hike may Damage the economy that hasn't yet got going so ultimately You know, there's there's problems there for the pound and And so I think any pullbacks. I think probably from now Are gonna be decent sell opportunities for me If we can get any pullbacks that sees a supply zone right there So any really major pullbacks into this zone or even if it comes even higher this week That would be fantastic as that would be a much better sell for me Anyway, I'll put these one three nine areas just between that I'd like for a short trade again. They're even though the banks monetary policy wise are doing Great as far as hiking rates. I think the the the economy for the UK is struggling a bit especially in the third quarter so There is such thing I guess as a As a negative hike right as far as a negative effect of a hike So let's see what happens there But if you do want to get low on the pound at some point then your first area to look for buying a pound would be at that one Just below that one three six area on the on the price chart demand zone moving on to the Euro dollar Euro dollar again prices came up pretty much Touched this the underside is the mark. Sorry supply zone a really nice supply zone I was actually looking at because it had been touched here once twice The three times and that was really the area to look for in fact, I didn't get involved in this unfortunately I was in some other euro short trades Which we actually worked at one worked out all right I should say all right, but one was a winning trade and one was a losing trade But but the point being is that the opportunity was there on the euro dollar There were two opportunities matter of fact there was this one and there was also for the guys that were in the group There was also a stop-hunt trade as well So there was definitely two setups in there, which were death guaranteed to be profitable for anyone who took that And the reason why I say I mean I was in two because I don't really take more than two Trades if I'm on one currency, so if I'm in a euro Swiss in a euro cad trade, I can't take a euro dollar trade Right, it's it's because I'm loading up too much on the on the euro So I like to manage my risk just to explain really, you know, how I go about managing one of the ways I manage risk on Taking any trade. So Yeah, really profitable trade anyone who got involved in that short and again, I was saying last week, you know the divergences between the You know the dollar the US dollar and the and the euro and again that really is highlighted This week or last week, I should say there was a meeting where Christine Lagarde came out I had a few things to say the ECB has finally woken up to into inflation reality So ECB Christine Lagarde just said it the ECB discussed Only three things today inflation inflation inflation So they still think the ECB ECB still thinks will seize the period of higher inflation as transitory or temporary But has become much more balanced with its inflation analysis paving the way for further asset purchase reductions in December So although that might sound positive. There was in fact Something of interest, which is the reason why the devil is in the detail You must read this stuff. Even if you don't understand all of it There's gonna be something that you will understand and this is something that popped out of me So against all of the above which is basically all of this If you don't understand that the synopsis is a first rate hike will not be on the cards before the second half of 2023 so they again, they're lagging behind right we just saw an article where The Fed are looking to potentially Hike rates next year, right? So the IMG are expecting a minimum of two next year and the end Europe are literally lagging behind With a potential rate hike, you know in in 2023 so ultimately this is the reason why you're seeing You know prices continue to go to the downside. This is not Elliot wave theory nonsense This is you know fundamental analysis and understanding value and where monetary policies are diverging So that being said Pretty much we are where we are if you do want to be a buyer of the of the of the dollar There is a I guess I guess technically you can draw a demand zone Sorry supply zone here, but I would say out of that supply zone Really the best area would be up within this 16 I would say from six from one 16 70s That is going to be the area to look for a short trade for me I wouldn't look for any kind of short trades around there not at all anything that aligns up with that 16 1 16 6 5 or just above that is going to be a for me a sell and If you do want to be a buyer of the euro because you know fortunes camera verse, you know things have to pull back there is such fingers profit-taking Etc. And this is actually a really technically are a very nice buy I think it's a very very nice buy, but again technicals are not the reason why I alone Anyway, you should be the reason why you should want to enter into a trade because if fundamentally Everybody thinks that this is an absolute bargain this price for the for the US dollar Then the par for these resistance should be to the downside Moving on to the euro yen Euro yen again bit a bit mixed picture both kind of weak currencies Although I do favor the euro over the yen, but nothing really to write home about here. I think Fundamentally, they're actually they're pretty much both weak No real demand here So I think if you are looking at getting short on the on the euro on the euro yen Which is basically buying the yen wait for some sort of risk-off sentiment as the yen does tend to jump in a risk-off Environment, but I think for now I think for any kind of buy trades on this currency pair It's going to be a bit difficult And this price has really come all the way down to its 129 area or they make higher highs higher lows And then prices come back down into that one three two Zone before looking to get long so nothing to really kind of Write home about on that one Aussie dollar and the Aussie dollar Strengthening Aussie dollar, especially against the US dollar has been a bit surprising But they did the US that's so the Australian dollar did have some really good news regarding their trade balance we're talking about in the in the room in the private mentoring group last week But ultimately I think that the with the Federal Reserve Looking to potentially high crates sooner than the Australian dollar This is basically just a pullback. I guess if you're looking at again the yearly high to the yearly low and Where we are potentially We are somewhere around fair value right that is fair value So ultimately you do want to get short on his currency pair Now is a really good time to look for short trades But again is the Australian dollar the best currency to you know short against the US dollar I would argue that there are much weaker currencies than the Australian dollar to look for trades against but if you do that's opportunity that you think that is You know the one then that's a nice Selling opportunity or shorting opportunity and buying for the dollar for the Australian dollar Technically, we do have demand here there So any pullbacks into probably the lower end of this demand where you've got some confluence of But a support and resistance there That should be decent, right? It should be Decent buy right there Moving on to finally gold and gold Again works really inversely to the US dollar. So if you believe the US dollar is going to get stronger Then you have to believe that gold potentially is going to get weaker. Yes, we have inflation problems But if the Federal Reserve are looking to high crates money is probably going to potentially You know move out of gold or some money will move out of gold And into a higher yielding asset, but that's not to say that if inflation if let's say for example if The Federal Reserve looked to potentially high crates to cap inflation But but they're hiking rates, but your inflation is still rising. Yeah, it's still going higher then gold eventually will start to go higher because you know Inflation starts to get out of hand then gold is a hedge against that inflation So again a bit of a tough one to kind of trade gold at the moment for me Gold generally should be overall long-term a buy but in the short term It's a bit more of a difficult trade to take But if you do want to be a buyer of gold then these are the areas to look for long trades If you're looking for again a short trade on gold and buying the US dollar Then you're looking for really kind of there was an opportunity obviously here at this supply zone But if you're you know waiting for price to go a bit higher, then that's going to be the zone right there But but yeah, I think I think gold may start to fall a bit if the dollar does rise There has been periods of course where the dollar has risen as well as gold, right? So not everything is always a hundred percent correlated. There are unique circumstances that do happen within the market and you have to be aware of that but typically Fundamentally, you know money tends to flow into one and out of the other so for me at the moment I think Potentially to the downside unless Inflation does start to continue to rise and there are you know inflation worries. Anyways, that's it for this week Hope you enjoyed the analysis again Don't forget to like subscribe and share press that like button and subscribe and I will see you next week Hope you have a great trading week