 Good afternoon and welcome to the weekly market update with me David Madden Today's date is Monday the 5th of October 2020 and the time has just gone 1236 British summertime and it's been a fairly positive start to the European training session We're showing fairly respective against across European equities and this is large down to a couple of things first of all President Trump's health appears to be on demand over the weekend US the US leader Posted a short video saying he's hearing great things from doctors. There was speculation and talk over the weekend that it could be released Released in terms of the health care In terms of the US stimulus package, Mr. Trump over the weekend was also tweeting that he was kind of encouraging It was essentially encouraging both sides to kind of come together and strike some sort of a deal It seems to me that President Trump isn't doing so well in the opinion polls So it looks like it could have been tweeting Kind of putting some pressure on a federal public in saying look you need to try and get a deal done here with the Democrats Possibly is a way of trying winning over prospective voters. So the fact that the US president Sending out videos, I think a video saying that a certain great things from the doctor So that is alleviated some of the concerns around his health and also this kind of renewed speculation at the at the Democrats and the Republicans are going to be kind of edging towards edging closer towards striking a deal, but there's not huge hopes a Coronavirus relief stimulus package is going to be announced anytime soon But it just seems that things The impression is that there are hopes that things are going to move along in that direction We want to add some reasonably mixed Services numbers out of Europe the euros on what euros on readings weren't too impressive You know a number of the country's Spain Italy France all saw negative readings Germany the best of the bunch So I never saw slightly a slight increase in In terms of growth many of the reports some of the ports were better than expected others were worse the UK's numbers were the best numbers out of the Europe as a whole but keep in mind the the UK economy reopened later than it's Confident or counterparts. So with that you would expect to see a bit of a delay While I quickly do now is run through the week ahead And for those of you who follow the videos regularly You know the structure I'll then talk about the major indices major currency pairs and the major commodities So starting off with the week ahead if you go to our website see if some markets calm under insights under latest news and analysis You'll find that here today on Monday. We have the services PMI reports Tomorrow on Tuesday, we have Levi Strauss report third quarter numbers We've an interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. We have FOMC minutes From the Federal Reserve on Wednesday also Wednesday. We have first-half numbers from Tesco on Thursday Electro components are going to post their second quarter numbers on Friday, we have third quarter numbers out from Delta Airlines over in the US On Friday, we have UK GDP and we also have UK manufacturing and manufacturing production and industrial production So starting off with the major indices. I'll be taking a look at the footsie. We're under first and foremost So the market hit in multi-month high in June the highest level since since Mid-March but since then we've broadly been moving lower But if you notice we seem to found some decent support in around this zone here kind of the five thousand eight hundred down to five thousand seven hundred and sixty seven mark So we're not particularly moving higher, but we seem to be stopped moving lower So today's session has taken us up the highest level and about a week and a half or two weeks We are much edging up. We're currently at five thousand nine hundred and fifty if you press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting six thousand and that not only is that a big psychological number it also broadly speaking Coincides with the fifth today moving average this blue line here Which we can see in a few time on a few occasions in the last few months has acted as resistance in the past So if metric has been important previously it makes it more likely it'll be of importance in the future But there are no guarantees So we could be looking at targeting six thousand or just north of it If the market continues to press on higher from here if it takes out six thousand We could then be looking heading up towards the 100 a moving average in a six thousand and ninety six Or if you go beyond that up towards the highs on the middle of September in its six six thousand one hundred and twenty six Conversely if I should move lower from here We could find support from five thousand eight hundred or down around here at five thousand seven hundred and sixty seven And if you a break below that we probably be That's likely to be fairly significant seeing as that region access support on a few occasions So if you have a break below that I could take us back down towards this area here at around five thousand six hundred and sixty that's the Taking a look here at the DAX general market is at a decent upward move Between March and into September where it hit its highest level since since February But since then we've had the lower low lower high lower low another lower high and we're sort of at a point where We could either rally again and fail to take out the most recent highs and turn over on itself Or else we could look at actually taking off the most recent highs And then heading back up towards the highs posted in the middle of the month So the broader trend is to the upside So it seems to me that's probably more likely of the two is that we could look at retesting the more recent highs If you take those out that could put us on track to see to take us towards the levels seen Only about two and a half three weeks ago So if you continue to hold above this yellow line here the water to move the average which comes into play at twelve thousand Six hundred and eight We can see that I acted nicely a support back in late late May It did trade below it once in late September But but it managed to close above it on that particular day if you could hold above that that metric It's likely at the broader bullish end that we continue if you press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting the fifth a day moving average at twelve thousand eight hundred ninety seven Or it's even the kind of the late September highs in a twelve thousand nine hundred and forty eight If you go beyond that we could be looking at looking at targeting thirteen thousand and if you go beyond thirteen thousand That'd be a reasonably big deal And we could then be looking up heading toward this zone around thirteen thousand three hundred and thirty nine Or this area here we can the highs of mid-September Conversely, if you do have a decent size break below the fifty move the one ready moving average We could be looking at financing support from the late September low Which comes to play in at twelve thousand three hundred and thirty nine And if you go below that we can then be find support from this red line here the twenty moving average Notice how it acted nicely a support in late July and that comes into play at twelve thousand one hundred and sixty four Turning our attention to the US starting off with the Dow Jones to the Dow Jones Moved higher from late March through into early September Hated multi-month high in September and the highest level seen since you know late February But since then we've had the lower low lower high a lower low and another lower high But once again the highs of early October Haven't taken up the highs of mid-September, but they can they could retest those where we're Holding above this blue line here the fifth of the movie average which comes into play at twenty seven thousand six hundred and ninety six If you can press on higher from here We could be looking at retesting the highs of September at twenty eight thousand Three hundred and sixty six and if you go beyond that we could then be looking at heading back up towards the kind of 29,000 mark or else even up towards the highest seen the multi-month highs that were seen in early September If you do move to the downside 27,000 is a big cycle is a big number that region collected support And if alternatively if you go below that this yellow line here the one of the movie average which acted nicely as support In late September that collected as a support again That came into play the one of the movie average comes into play at twenty six thousand eight hundred and twenty nine that as the About Jones, let's take a look at the S&P 500 The S&P 500 has been the best of the bunch of the big indices because the highs that achieve in early September We're actually all-time highs now granted I've had a pretty aggressive sell-off or pretty aggressive correction since then the lower low the lower high the lower low And I look at the rebound so once again Is this a lower high are we going to run out of steam and turn over on ourselves and head back down here? Or are we going to actually retest and re retake? We take the mid-September highs and if you're going to press on higher here We can see that this blue line here the 50 movie average comes into play Comes into play at three thousand three hundred and seventy we're currently just above that we're currently at three thousand three hundred and seventy four If you can it seems to have seen better consolidation in that area But if you can hold above that metric is likely at the broader upward trend is going to continue if you press on higher from here We could be looking at a target targeting the mid-September highs in at three thousand four hundred and twenty nine and if you go beyond that We could be looking at heading up towards 3500 of them and beyond that up towards the all-time highs that were achieved at the beginning of September If you do have a decent break below 3300 we can see that that area on a few occasions accident support We could head back towards this blue this yellow line the 180 movie average and that comes to play at three thousand two hundred and forty four Take a look now. What's on the currency is turning off a euro dollar? So in early September over a month ago euro dollar and its highest level in over two years But we've seen a bit of a correction since we've had the lower low lower high lower low Moving higher again, but we still have yet to get to kind of get up towards the fifth of the movie average So similar to similar Chart ship to what we saw on the equities or by could we be looking at retesting the recent highs and Continuing in the broader upper trend or could we look at actually running out of steam before we retest these areas and look to turn lower But keep mind the broader trend is still to the upside So if you do press on higher from here, we could really get retesting the kind of 118 area That's where the fifth of the movie average comes into play as you can see was fairly important We saw something because it was a fairly important metric not too long ago If you go beyond that we could then be looking at heading up towards the recent highs The highs are going to meet early to mid-september in at one spot 19 One spot 1917 and if you go beyond that we can be looking ahead to retest the highs In around the kind of 120 solar just north of it which are posted in early September If the market does turn over turn over on itself Keep out for the lows of late September in around one spot 1612 and if you go below that We get a head back down towards the other one 14 area We can see that active button as that zone Accidents but resistance in the early in early June and also Support in kind of in that middle of July as well Let's take a look at pound dollar So Sterling obviously has the kind of the UK EU trade negotiations hanging over it So we could see continued volatility in the pound But even though for all the top you know the tough talk about both sides You're willing to walk away and from Prime Minister Boris Johnson on the UK side He said that a if the deal isn't agreed by the 15th of October the British team will walk away Well, that's less than two weeks away And guess what the pound has actually been gaining ground versus the dollar of the last few sessions granted It has been making massive strides, but it's still been moving to the upside So the pound at its highest level About a nine month high or so eight over eight nine month high was achieved in September We've moved back since then the lower low the lower high the lower low But we have been moving higher once again So the last few sessions we see that the pound press on higher There's been an increase in positive momentum on the MACD indicator to make the histogram We could look at retesting the fifth any moving average in at one spot 30 35 If you go beyond that good looking help towards the kind of 132 area or one spot 32 69 Should he move lower from here support could come into play from this zone here The dirty moving average in a one spot 2716 or just below that if we saw the lows of mid to late September in around one spot 26 one spot 2675 and if you go if you have a slice of break below that that could take back down towards the lows of mid July in a one spot 2480 Turning our attention to gold now when we commodity front So gold racked up and all record high in early August We've had a quite aggressive rebound move to the downside or a pullback rather in the middle of August is broad Can range down for a number of weeks there But but only in late September and managed to fall back to its lows or basically about a two-month low In late September and we've we recovered it since then but it's because of dancing around the 1900 mark But keep in mind look afar. It's traveled the broad train. It's very much to the upside if we could hold above this area here the lows here in around 1848 if you could hold above those lows Which also kind of coincides and not too far away from the 50 moving average or sorry The one really moving average this yellow line here if you could hold above those lows the broader upper friendship continue If you have a decent move north of 1900 It could put us on track for targeting this blue line the 50 movie average which comes to play at 1944 and if you go beyond that because I'd be looking at targeting the highs of mid September In around 1973 and if you go beyond that you can then be looking heading up towards the highs achieved in early September in 1992 Lastly taking a look at what's going on on the oil market. I'll take a look at Brent crude oil on the December contract So the oil market had a decent rebound between April into into to August We're gonna hit a multi-month high the highest level It was a five month high that was achieved in August But since then we've had concerns renew concerns about about about the about the coronavirus crisis So if you see an aggressive move to the downside in mid September, we've had the lower high Now if I had a lower low, you know, that was only achieved on Friday just gone So we have had a decent rebound today or well off the lows of Friday But this kind of broad trend the last few weeks. It still appears to be in place So if you do drop below the recent lows here That could put us on track to heading back down towards 36 bar 36 36 dollars per barrel If you can manage to hold above the recent lows and we can impress on higher from here But we're currently at 40 spot 81 if you could hold about 40 bucks a barrel We could look ahead and back up towards the 42 area And if you have a decent correction and we take out the highs of late September in a 43 Spot o3 we could then be looking at retesting the 50 moving average this blue line here In a 43 spot 89. We can see that area actors We saw a bit of consolidation a bit of support and resistance from the metric in early September So that could be an area to watch out for should we have a should we have a decent move to the upside? That's all from this video. Thank you for listening. Have a good training week and good luck