 Welcome to this week's SOAS Centre of Taiwan Studies seminar. I'm really delighted today to welcome Professor Li Weixin from Wake Forest University. Li Weixin is a familiar figure to those of us that study Taiwanese politics. In the recommended readings for our Taiwan politics class in week one, he's on our reading list for his article on the State of the Field article on Taiwan's International Studies. That article, that issue from studies, peach from about 2003 or so. We also know him through his editing points on Taiwan. Sayonara Lee, don't wait, for example. Or the Taiwan politics in the 21st century. Another really important editing volume looking at Taiwan in the post 2000 era. We're really fortunate to be able to invite him here today. He's in London for one term. When I heard he was in London for one term, the immediate reaction I had was, I'm going to force you to come and give a talk. Professor Li's speciality is really Taiwan's international relations. That was one of the reasons why I opted for this topic, Taiwan's international space, opportunities and challenges. Although I should say, if you look through his CV, you can see this, it's extremely diverse. There's international relations, there's cultural policy, civil military relations. You see the study, everything. Okay, the way we're going to structure this is the presentation will be maybe something like 40, 45 minutes. Maybe Shona then. Hopefully we should have a fair amount of time for Q&A. Okay, without further ado then, over to you, Professor Li. Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be here to meet new faces. At the same time, I've already heard that this school was so many years, and finally I've set my foot here, so I should take a picture of myself. All the concept. Thank you very much. I plan to talk about, if you can see here somewhere, Taiwan's expansion of international space and opportunities and challenges. Since Taiwan has had a regime change in 2008, certainly there are all kinds of situational phenomena change, particularly in cross-strait relations. For my angel, the present mark, one of these arguments, we are going to move into a new era in terms of cross-strait relations, and the creation of no independence, no unification, no use of military forces, under the constitutional framework. In terms of diplomatic ties, let's have a diplomatic ceasefire. We don't try to use monetary diplomacy. You try to get someone, some country to convert their diplomatic recognition from China to Taiwan. At the same time, you do the same thing, even though that's pretty much a consensual understanding without any kind of official recognition by the other side. At least so far, so good. Except for one country was trying to get advantage from both sides. So last year, they decided, well, we are going to try it. But from all the media sources, it seems like it's working on that front. The difficult part actually is on the international organization, this part. In this part, they tried all kinds of ways, but still the process is not very smooth. So if you look at all these kinds of situations, my topic actually is trying to make arguments that if coming from China's view, a lot of people already talk about Taiwan's perspective and say, well, definitely I want to be represented. Definitely I want to be a member of any kind of international organization I want to do. And I can give you tons of opinions from Taiwan's perspective. But today I'm going to remove that kind of position, location, a little perspective, a little bit. Coming from China's side, I'm trying to make an argument if China decides to encourage or promote Taiwan's international space. Actually, it's not only an advantage to Taiwan, but also an advantage on China's side. So that's a sort of reverse thinking a little bit from that perspective. So I'm going to concentrate more on China's interest in terms of expansion of Taiwan's international space. And then if you're in the IR field, sometimes we got sorry, Professor cannot avoid any kind of theoretical discussion, even though I seem to just run through it very quickly. You've got the realism, liberalism, and the constructivism. And certainly every ISM, they have a different view. And even the English school of international politics or international relations, you've got a realist over there. You've also got internationalism, Heather LePouls, the Anatical Society, that's a famous one, and they know you're a whole group of English scholars in international politics. They're also pushing similar kinds of directions. Whatever ISM you try to talk about, my point actually is trying to say that it doesn't matter if you're a realist, there's still an advantage that you try to look into the other side. And sometimes, if necessary, even for your own power of consideration, you can still reach some kind of mutual understanding. And liberalism certainly is a very convenient one. You talk about democratic peace theory, you talk about complex independence, and you talk about all this kind of argument coming down international organization actually quite helpful for the cross-strait relations. Or a constructive approach, you can even make the argument this, well maybe we need to change our mindset, change the discourse, because a lot of speech act or the communicative action, a through that kind of action, if you've got to reiterate the actions and sometimes repeat it, and they build up that kind of behaviour patterns and change or mold the thinking logic of both sides. And then maybe through all these years, you create some kind of norms, some kind of patterns of exchange, and maybe they'll pay for the way for future, whatever you decide to do. At least you maintain the status quo. So that's all those eyes and they try to argue. But another one I try to do very quickly is even for the realists, yes, we understand cross-strait relations, China is a big guy, Taiwan is right now very speaking, it's a little guy. A little guy sometimes, well, really gets some kind of advantage, sometimes we can get some kind of advantage by trying to negotiate with other side. It's not necessarily completed for the strong's advantage of it. But only if you're coming from a strong's point of view, how are you going to get the weak to sign in to compromise? Sometimes strong needs to undercut its own privilege a little bit, because the purpose you want to do is to constrain yourself, and the purpose is you want to lock in of the low beam, that kind of low beam, the weak side to get into the deal which can be sort of mutually beneficial but at the same time in the long run to the advantage of the strong one. So that's a strong weak, that kind of argument of it. And then all this kind of argument, sometimes you can also argue that well, if you've got a smooth cross-strait relation, sometimes you minimize the security dilemma which is familiar term for international politics. So, if you look at all this, the benefits for Taiwan's joint global community you can see, I can read it for you quickly. It's a process legitimacy, in other words, you allow Taiwan to have some voice, some representation, and then you try to democratize the international institution or international organization. The process legitimacy is basically for the output legitimacy. Whatever policy decision you decide to do, you have Taiwan in and then you can ask Taiwan and say, well, you promise or you agree to certain kind of standards, and certainly your compliance is supposed to be there. So that's one. Or you also try to avoid any kind of jurisdictional gap or operational gap or incentive gap in terms of creating all kinds of transnational or transboundary intergovernmental issue of it. You can also make an argument well, if I'm coming from English school, there is a universalism, that kind of argument, the society of the people instead of the society of the states. And so if that's the case, and then certainly from that point of view you would say, well, let the people have some kind of voice, even though that's only 23 million people. But still, there are a lot of voices. And still, that's under, in terms of internal sovereignty, Taiwan is really in charge. China, you really couldn't get into it in terms of internal sovereignty. So that's the benefit through a global community. For Taiwan, I can run through it very quickly. You can reduce the transactional costs. You can have a peace promotion. You can have economic benefits for both sides. You can have a democratic aspiration. Because sometimes international society set up certain kind of policy you internalize. Because just like in Taiwan, the typical arguments or the debate all the time is death penalty supposed to be carried out or not. Because you do have the international covenant on civil and political rights or whether there's one particular article if you promise that you're going to obey it or comply with it, then no death penalty. Even though a certain country may open a reservation of it. But still, in terms of what it goes or the vision of principle is supposed to be there. So you've got a democratic aspiration of it. You have better governance in domestic democratic consolidation. A typical one is if you're familiar with the Transnistrian scandals. There's one particular group, Agmont. That's actually trying to find out all kinds of anti-long dreams money long dreams and scandals. So you can trace all those money where they go and all this kind of process. You can prevent political spoilers from using international frustration and also China's disruption for domestic politics game. So you have all kinds of reasons for it. So I'm not to mention that that there is some kind of diplomatic link over there. And then in case you don't know too much about Taiwan and here you probably won't be able to see it. There is a website comparing the United Kingdom and Taiwan. So if the United Kingdom were your home countries instead of Taiwan, you would, for example, use 43.46% less electricity. You have a 35.59% more chance of being unemployed and all this kind of thing. And you have 18.95% more babies. So lucky, living in UK is quite productive in this sense. You can make more, for example, 18% more moneys and then you live one year longer than those people living in Taiwan. So allow you to give some idea about Taiwan's economic and social standards in comparison with the UK. Quickly run through the Taiwan's IGO status. Taiwan in 1966 before Taiwan was removed from the UN membership, Taiwan was a member of a 39 IGO, IGO stands for International Organization, Intergovernmental Organisations. Then after 1971, in 1977, the number of Taiwan's membership only 10. Reverse situation for China, in 1966, one, with China's policy at that time, they decided to do that way. 1977 reverse expanded to 22. You also need to remember that China at that time faced a question, a question is because they just opened up and they don't have enough diplomat and most of the diplomat they trained actually before 1949 and then do you want to send all those pre-regime change to those personnel who serve diplomats and then I don't know whether I can trust them or not, loyalty, all this kind of issue. By this you can see that they expanded. So 22 actually can be a larger number, can be even more, but simply just China has the difficulty sending all the diplomats and then since the isolation policy they don't know how to ground the international affairs to a certain extent. Another thing in terms of INGO, that's a non-governmental organisation and Taiwan also faced a crisis, for example in 1973 UNESCO which is the one handling all the NGOs and under China's pressure send out a instruction to all the NGO associates with Taiwan asking them to cut off the relationship. So in 1973 send out that particular request, 75 if you check on the documents in the UNESCO documents 20 out of the 37 reply majority of them turn down the request cut off the relationship but eventually they have to cut off the relationship. Because China's if you read in the 1970 UNESCO documents records and you're going to see every year China is going to mention it China is going to mention it so eventually some of the NGO they decide to do so. China's position I don't need to explain very well or extensively in this case because China's position is very simple. There's one China policy based on the 1992 consensus i zhongge biao, that means there's one China with different interpretation but in the white papers in 1993 they argue that in terms of the ideal representations Taiwan supposed to be named Taipei, comma, China or Taiwan, comma, China and from Taiwan's point of view certainly that's not acceptable because that treat you just like a local regional unit within the big Chinese Chinese government because at this moment in 1993 gradually in terms of international social construct China gradually replaced or dominate the name of China so in that case certainly from Taiwan's point of view we say well do I really want to put a comma or not so it's a debate about a comma it's continuing going on then 2000 they even further they talk about Chinese Taipei because at that time in 1981 already got the international Olympic committees and they decided to change it in order to accommodate China's needs and all this kind of finally compromising solution Taiwan was not happy about it except the Chinese Taipei so that's the international Olympic committee, IOC's model in the NGO gradually moved into the IGOs so in 2005 paper they said Chinese Taipei is only an ad hoc arrangement and cannot constitute a model applicable to other IGOs but that kind of understanding or that kind of statement actually right now is already no longer there because Chinese Taipei you're going to see a lot so currently in terms of status report Taiwan got 53 IGOs in all different kind of categories but if you really count it they're probably only 44 or 45 it depends on how you count it because for example if you join the World Trade Organization they have a lot of speed off organizations so as long as you are the WTO then you can get into other international organizations or if you are the world customs organizations in that case again they set up technical standards committee or the organization in that case you can join so in terms of 53 33 of full member status observer status 16 associate member status 2 corresponding members 1 and then the co-operating non-members that's 1, that's for the tuna fish that's in the international commission for the conservation of Atlantic tunas actually that one Taiwan joined very early but then never really pushing because think about that's Atlantic but even though we love sushi and sashimi so we want to keep from Taiwan's point of view I still want to harvest all those tuna fish I think I'm coming from the small fishing town so sashimi actually is sort of a really delicious particularly if you love sushi and sashimi so that one that organization actually say we still want to keep you here so it's a co-operating non-member but still you got participation rights and open discussion rights right down in terms of year before 2000 you have total 21 full members observer status 7 corresponding member 1 and then co-operating members 1 from 2000 to 2008 that's during the translated period you increase 8 full members membership 7 observers and associate 2 after 2008 my angel stepped in total 6 4 members and observer 2 and that's certainly if I'm getting into domestic politics if I'm pro-green I'm not green but anyway if I'm green members pay green members and then I'll say look since the European era actually increased tremendously total 17 my angel you already stepped in you are really not good in terms of diplomatic you only got 6 so if you compare the number again don't forget that some of the number actually deceiving and sometimes if you really get into sorry they are in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs sorry sometimes sometimes that's fine number if you get into for example maybe 2013 and you suddenly say well how come the number increase or decrease membership becomes full members suddenly becomes observer status because there is a certain way you can read it because some of the full membership actually is not joining as a national name or national organization so you join in like some kind of agency so there is a possibility maybe election committee they join the Asian election organization or some kind of study and certainly in that case maybe the title will be Taiwan why? that China is not going to join in and then there is another organization called the government information technology pretty much talking about government how to control or manage the information technology and you are not supposed to do a censorship and only that China is not going to join in because China loves its own people very much they want to well protect it they don't want you to listen to all watch all those pornography sites so they try to restrict it so in that case it certainly Taiwan will be able to join and sometimes even the name you can find a suitable name in order to do that so there is all kinds of a trick you play into it in terms of categorizations quickly majority of them they are economic trade finance so that means again think about Taiwan's point of view in order to sustain itself economic development is a trading process financial all kinds of things actually very important because we want to catch up the train of the globalization so economic part is definitely Taiwan need to get into it then the second one will be the rural development agriculture animal related issue but even for that sometimes it is very difficult there is a world organization dealing with animal health and then at one time I was reading the document someone just studies and oh it's pretty much like a soap opera going through it because in order to keep Taiwan then the organization need to think of some name to accommodate China's needs and if you accommodate China's needs too much and Taiwan will be kicked out but only other Taiwan is a long term members so for animals health issues it's very important to keep Taiwan because we all love that kind of cutie cutie animal so you know how you're going to do it it becomes a long term history of the diplomatic exchange in order to keep Taiwan but at the same time also get trapped into it and then the third category actually quite interesting that's fishing related and this part in recent development is quite interesting Taiwan join me fishing entity I don't know what that means but anyway fishing entity that means it's based on the UNCRO United Nations law of the sea convention 1982 there's article 305 I think they try to encourage the broad participation so they indicate that member states you can join of course on the other hand if you're the sort of non self governing territorial entity or maybe you're self governing entity but you're not recognised by others we also welcome you to join it but certainly with a kind of spatial consideration so UNCRO is law of the sea in 1982 opened up that kind of possibility in 1995 UN's fish stock fish stocks agreement also opened up the possibility article 1, 2 and 6 again they say well if a certain country they cannot join as official name or try to find some way to allow them to join and they put out the name fishing entity so there's a possibility that's exactly what the fishing entity in Atlantic ocean, Pacific ocean particularly in the western and Pacific ocean that part because that's pretty much on Taiwan's coastal areas and then a lot of Taiwan's blue waters flee they really catch a lot so that increase the Taiwan's participation because it's using the fishing entity and because Taiwanese also love fish and also maybe Harvey say a lot export for export purpose so in that case if I'm the fishing entity I mean if fishing management organisations I certainly want to keep Taiwan in and China also realise that so there's the point is how are you going to negotiate that's certainly that's a separate subject or deal with it and then you can see all kinds of but you're going to see that only six of them they are generally other areas that means in terms of election in terms of integration and that one for example Latin America, Central America that kind of integration organisation they can join because most of the Taiwanese allies they are there, diplomatic allies so there's no problem to join but the point is most of them they are technical issue, regional issue functional issues but not so much in terms of political issues the form of participation this one I'm going to run through very quickly you've got the full membership you've got associate members you've got the observer status and then you have the corresponding members you have a co-operating non-members meaning that they still want you to be informed even though you're not a member but because of your activity here so if all this kind of membership Taiwan's goal is certainly to try to get into a full members but in order to get into a full member you need to get China's approval in the taxi way or the obvious way to say I'm going to allow you to get in once they allow you to get in then you have to think about what's in the name allow you to join in so you have all different kind of tricks try to get into it then the examples of official name here I can read some of you you join in this Republican channel it's in the past you can join in and it also depends on whether China is really interested in the organization or not so the possibility you join in as a Republican channel but one day you're going to see that they change your name in a quiet way or maybe in a way just announce it to you take it or leave it there's a possibility you can join in as a Taiwan's name that also creates a problem of it you can have a Taipei common channel or sometimes even Taipei without common channel I don't know I need to find a linguistic specialist to try to decide you have a Chinese Taipei you have customer territory you have economic entity, fishing entity you have a health entity and then you can join as a participating organization just like international satellite for research and rescue actually let's join as some kind of same-mind official organization for some kind of rescue business but there's an international organization and that's also the catchy part you don't know whether that's really officially an NGO it's an identity crisis not only for Taiwan but also for that particular organization so you have all different kind of way to get into it Taiwan's policy actually seems roughly maybe 21st century gradually change what Taiwan wants to do it is I'd use for Taiwan's international functionality and sustainability because no country just like no individual is an island Taiwan certainly is an island but even though I'm an island I want to have some kind of continental association of it you don't want to feel lonesome just like occasionally I need to talk to someone so that kind of association value actually is quite important because through association you can find a lot of information you can also connect it you can build up Facebook sometimes you still need to have that kind of connection that's the purpose of Facebook not only simply just put it on your face you need to have a book to collect all those names so you try to have a sustainability you try to have a functionality of Taiwan because Taiwan really cannot simply just close up you need to move out you need to get in the international organization first I see what to do next so pragmatic principles becomes very important we can negotiate the name we can also talk about what kind of rights I have so even observer status is acceptable so that's the purpose of trying to get in in terms of the name what's in the name? you can play the semantic games you can call me Republic of China come on Taiwan or Taiwan you say well you don't like Taiwan, Republic of China you don't want to have a Chinese Taipei or any kind of name but don't put me into Taiwan, Taiwan or Taipei, Taiwan because there is a domestic issue over there and that becomes a crucial one so there is a spectrum of what they prefer and what they don't prefer they also soften the narrative appeal in other words again coming back to constructive discursive that kind of strategy but they don't want international participation but they don't talk about full membership so that has been the bogey time because we keep on talking I just want to join in maybe I don't have a voting right but at least I need to raise my concern it's just like international civil aviation association or ICAO organizations I don't want to find out all those air traffic standards six months later or one year later ICAO already changed the standard and I have no idea when the foreign pilot coming in in Tauan International Airport they talk one language and they say yes that's English but what does that mean so it really tries to be connected to the international standard so international participation is very important and at the same time they use the NGO to complement it NGO becomes a crucial one if ICAO doesn't work, NGO cut in or use one what I'm saying in terms of the China's interests you can allow Taiwan to get in and then you can manipulate maneuver in the name a little bit the purpose is you want to use the naming for the social construction in the international arena but at the same time for the domestic consumption when I say domestic consumption it's not only in Taiwan but also in China both international construction is we all understand that anyone stay abroad for a long time just like me 80s I went to the United States and said so where are you from Taiwan so are you a Chinese or not I said of course I'm a Chinese because we have been social constructed in that way and then gradually you say am I really Chinese because if I mention I'm a Chinese I'm coming from people's Republic of China but I'm holding Taiwan's passport so what should I say so everyone asked me in 1980s yeah I'm Chinese but I'm from Taiwan but politically I'm from Taiwan culturally maybe historically so it becomes a complicated issue then continue process because China refused to allow Taiwan to go to the Republic of China that's very simple so when you talk about people's Republic of China and then the abbreviation will be China and then suddenly you will say well China equivalent to people's Republic of China so all these things just disappear in the international society and so when they ask you again you say why are you from Taiwan are you Taiwanese I don't want to have a bipolar that kind of and also I need to spend a lot of time so look at that kind of situation that kind of situation actually create an international social construct either self push out or maybe self push out that means domestic politics because the leading way errors if you don't love Taiwan so you have to shout every morning three times and say I love Taiwan and so the purpose is actually that's quite useful to make a transition but then sometimes if Taiwan has no diplomatic issues that's a good point but then sometimes you create a problem that for yourself you already remodel yourself reconstruct yourself so that's international I'm not going to say I'm a Chinese in that way I'll simply just say Taiwanese that's easy otherwise I need to spend 10 minutes to explain the history of the international purpose if you get Taiwan in and then you can construct the name you can face the Republic of China that's a perfect solution or maybe you modify you say Chinese Taipei at least you got the Chinese over there and then you got Taipei to satisfy Taiwan's side you got Chinese over there and then think about it if you repeat 100 times every morning you become a Chinese is that right it's just look at the face every face will be Chinese and then the second thing is for China bring Taiwan in because really if you read the international foundation it doesn't need to be a full member and then some of the constitution because one time I was in China in Beijing with international law scholars and then he kept on saying that I mean IGU constitution or treaty very clearly membership is this but I said I have two arguments one there must be some of the provision sometimes they talk about associate members or sometimes now this is over there but sometimes they created observer status so there is a possibility one secondly even though the treaty provision is so strict well we all understand international politics if there is a will there is a way Palestinian liberation organizations or different organizations some of the organizations during the decolonization period they haven't participated in the United Nations but they are already a member of the IGU so what happens well just general assembly or any kind of general conference just like for example UNESCO 2011 they just passed a motion they said well Palestinian your state member and then UNESCO said oh gosh so refuse to pay the deal the United States pay 22% of it and then exceeding two years so 2013 UNESCO already exceeding it so UNESCO is voting right in the UNESCO say bye bye because they are following the constitution so in that case look a lot of international organizations if you are creative enough if you have a political will it's not really a problem even the Rosalie Higgins some of the ICJ's judge they even she even said that oh this is a political consideration okay so that's not a problem so bring it in even that's a non-solvent members because they only ask for international participation international participation and all kinds of activity going on so bring it in Chinese Taipei actually is a very good compromising solution at this moment I say at this moment that doesn't necessarily mean that it will please everyone because Taiwan domestic politics even for some of the blue pan blue members they probably if I'm a die hard blue members I would say well I want the Republic of China I really want it so I don't want Chinese Taipei because think about Chinese Taipei I just mentioned if you repeat one hundred times it becomes a name, becomes a national title and in fact some scholars are already warned about it but on the other hand you retreated from the realist point of view and tried to accommodate the liberalist point of view if they are willing to take you well Chinese Taipei may be not a bad I say not a bad solution for the timing but once you get in maybe there is all kinds of possibility over there so Chinese Taipei for the PRC because there is a Chinese over there there is a Taipei over there so I say a little bit half in a way that happy for some extent not completely satisfactory the final thing is if you are strong versus the weak again strong you can use the military forces for unification but you really don't want to see it particularly for channels on the view if you want to prove yourself you are benevolent rising power and you say well I'm benevolent on one hand on the other hand I kick your butt that's probably not friendly in the sense so what you can do is you accommodate and the point is you try to bring it in lock it because we're locking up position and then I just mentioned that's a non-solving member you can create this observer right just like the United States asking the ICAO to give a Palestinian organization some kind of observer status ICAO in 1974 put up one condition Palestinian organization authority or the government they cannot become a full member if they want to become a member four members in the United States so in 1989 Palestinian organization tried to change the US system of blocking you can put it in some kind of memorandum writing which happens in different organizations so this is 2008 that's done by the national university election studies that's the only one I can find it in terms of the preference over Taiwan's official delegations of the titles in IGO that's 2008 and that's a survey they give all kinds of choice of name to the survey subject and then everyone answer which one you choose and you can only choose one 29.2% in 2008 the Republic of China 43.7% they choose Taiwan Chinese type A only 7.4% and the rest of them Taiwan, China or any name or others but some of them they don't care that's 5.2% this is the first question they ask so you can see that the Republic of China or Taiwan actually 43% Republic of China 29.2% but if you ask the follow up question if ROC or Taiwan are not acceptable are not likely to happen what's the name you prefer and then the Taiwan common channel 4.6% 52.1% they choose the Chinese type A either one is fine that's 9.7% neither one is okay that would be 28.5% no response again still about 5% because those people they don't care but then the question is really why it comes in ROC, Taiwan not acceptable what's the follow up option what's the step back option say well Chinese type A okay and this one interesting then after this one we have a group we try to convince some of the survey if you want to do a survey that's quite expensive then for American professor just like the English colleagues we are all very poor unless we have a funding so anyway so we are poor folks so we try to run the survey again but we couldn't find anyone because this is an international issue they are more interesting about whether they can win the doctors are not all this kind of issue or maybe they are more interesting about any kind of soap opera stars or whatever but in this issue 2008, Chinese type A 52.1% so there is a possibility over there another one actually not coming from the same organization and also I don't know too much about this one this is from Taiwan indicator survey research in 2013 in October they released one only one here is they saying what's the preference over Taiwan's official delegation in IGO and they asked the survey subject and they said well but you can have a multiple choice this is different from the previous one this one you can have a multiple preferences choice 72.5% Taiwan 78.9% Chinese type A 25.8% but you can have all kinds of choice so that means again Chinese type A how they preferred or Republic of China 72.5% Taiwan 78.9% another one the wrong story is they decided to do the cross finding or pan blue that means they are more on the canty side or that kind of pan blues actually my mind is I decided to take out the color because even though in London I visit all different museums it's quite colorful but then I'm afraid that if you put color into it put red and that means I put blue all those major colors they cannot choose so sometimes it's a difficult issue so I'm color blind pan blue they choose Republic of China 88.3% certainly that's their inspiration Taiwan 75.3% of it pan green they choose Republic of China still surprisingly 69.1% Taiwan 91.5% that's not surprising by this you can see that there are some kind of emerging consensus emerging consensus is Republic of China actually it suddenly becomes acceptable particular for pan green on that side pan blue I'm not doubt about it pan green on that side is because some of the pan green political leader for example Sumindo will come out and say why do we need to declare independence there's no point why we need to do it because we're already a country why we need to bypass that particular way and that kind of argument actually also coming in in the follow-up the same survey released even though I don't know the detail of how now they conduct this survey if China accepts the ROC on Taiwan if there a need to change the national title for independence that's October 11th 2013 they release you can find it on the other side no need to change 73.3% so that means also another message that's probably also the recent meetings and also they say well please acknowledge the existence of the Republic of China and then you can talk about mutual non-demahe principles which is just like East Germany and West Germany when they decided to sign the basic treaty in 1972 actually very similar very similar situation and at the same time if you go back to read some sorry I cannot qualify to be a European so sorry if there is a specialist on the German unification I have to confess apologize first but at least before the German unification at that time the survey is also very similar interesting another West German people's attitude is I don't care why it's German so the attitude is very similar just like Taiwan's kind of division they say wow look who cares about China well I care about China division identity division still there but suddenly political entrepreneurs point of view coming in political leaders say well pushing it because in the 1972 basic treaty actually talking about Germany as a whole they never mentioned who is going to unify they decided to set up a permanent missions in each country they don't call it official diplomat representative they want to set up a like a permanent mission in each of the respective government government seat they don't use capital so it's the way they try to do it and that's actually what maybe Mauritius or maybe maybe later on when the DPP gain power which is likely and then they probably will do the same thing that's an interesting part you try to fuzzy it and blur it it's just like impressionist I was watching the Turner's impressionist older age in the national gallery there is a train and steam coming in so it's the impressionist coming in so what should China do very quickly China and Taiwan in an asymmetrical situation my argument is China needs to do more and actually you're not afraid of Taiwan anymore it's alright there are two carriers over there you can keep on playing with it and you already have a big toy so play with it you don't need to worry about Taiwan actually since 1975 already changed 75-74 that time you already changed the military strategy it's a defensive purpose not an offensive purpose so you don't need to think about it in Taiwan say one day it's going to land it and put the flag into it don't think about it the purpose is for the long one you want to bring it in lock it in and once you lock in the position you undercut yourself similar kind of argument just like United States after 1945 set up all kinds of international organizations set up the Bretton Woods system all kinds of things United States say well I'm strong I decide to carry the responsibility but the point is I understand by this I can create an institutional rule and so if maybe one day I step down my rules continue to live and will constrain the state's behavior so that's probably what China needs to think about though the sovereignty sensitivity issue tried to be very pragmatic in name and membership China already started to do it but they simply just worried Taiwan's regime they really worried about it and so that's and certainly again you also need to come back from the rear you do have a power consideration you cannot deny that if I'm a powerful I'm a strong one I certainly will become very bossy and bully a lot but my point is if there is a will there is a possibility and then finally mutual non-denial principle actually probably will keep on pushing for it even though China never accepted officially never accepted frankly speaking I haven't seen unless you see something from China say we are accepting acknowledge the possibility acknowledge the ROC on Taiwan if full membership is unattainable I would say they only ask for international participation observers, status observer all the other non-full members usually they don't have voting rights by this they can sit in over there they can listen and sometimes they even got participate in the discussion and that's useful in a sense you got association, you got legitimacy you got representation, you got transparency accountability over there compliance can be down in a way that I need bringing the happy family over go or society so in that case everyone can jump around and happy so that's the point full membership is not unattainable all kinds of way you can do it another interesting point is the final point I'm going to talk about this I just mention about all kinds of entity health entity, world health assembly, you have the economic entity to some degree in different kind of economic organization you got fishing entity which is quite fascinating because I just conducted one recently and I was reading it in the treaty in one fishery management organization in the treaty actually say very clearly it say need to be state but then because they have a contract party supposed to be state but then the contract party they have one year everyone get together and cocktail and join together but they do have a commission to run the fishery management that's more on the monthly or maybe regular meeting of it but in the commission rules of procedure they never specify suppose to be the member of it they only say well if you have a contract party you can join it but they never rule out that sometimes they can invite maybe other countries to join it so there is one fishery management organization what they decided to do UN already indicated that fishing entity is supposed to be invited that's one second we are dealing with the common pool resource problem it's sort of like a global commons but someone will say it's a little bit different but common pool resources it's just like a fishery it can be exhausted it can be subtracted so you need to have some kind of management right so we are concerned about that because we really want to keep the sushi supply all the time for the diet so what they decided to do is they are not touching the treaty contract parties the government is there what they changed is they changed the rule of the procedure because rule of procedure also doesn't say how are you going to change it so what they changed is Taiwan can become now a contract party of the whole organization in the treaty's definition but Taiwan invited the observer for the whole treaty in terms of the meeting procedure commission Taiwan is an official member in the commission easy it can be done if there is no requirements three, four, four fifths so Taiwan just got in so what Taiwan got in also decided to accommodate Taiwan made the statement I have a voting right in the commission meeting I can do it I can participate in the meeting but if one day the whole treaty's organization they decide to change a policy you need to inform me and I have the right to decide whether I want to comply with it now and everyone says yes so it's finished and then it becomes a formality how are you going to do it how are you going to do it do you want to put it in the treaty annex so sometimes we call put it in the whole treaty since you don't want to change a treaty change a treaty is too much trouble so you annex it at least no document attach it that's one way they decided to do it and then another way they decided so everyone have it so Taiwan it's kind of strange you're not a treaty contracting party but you're a member of the commission which is really wrong for example how much in terms of what amount of fish stock you can catch for example for your country and Taiwan even enjoys that kind of reciprocal right I can send in my coast guard and visit or inspect your boat and then but there's all kinds of way you can do it so that's really my point is if I were in Chinese government so that I'm not since I'm a Taiwanese but China really can do a lot that kind of argument again I need to put a a damp on that kind of aspiration last time I was in Shanghai talking to them and I was like a devil's advocate and finally I realized Shanghai is different from Beijing you got Shanghai you got Shaman Shaman is very liberal by Shaman no one listen to them but they are quite liberal they have a lot of idea Beijing is very conservative to some extent more dogmatic because you cannot deny they live in the capitals and everyone is watching so very slow conservative in between so I was talking to them and eventually I said well two things we worry about one thing we don't worry about that DPP will come to power and I said well you cannot but Taiwan is a democratic society that's a price of a democratic society you have to deal with it but even for that with the division in terms of identity it's also unlikely for DPP to push very far for their position it also means that my angel actually depends on type he is not, particularly if you know him I don't know him, sorry his mentality is he follows the constitution and all this kind of thing all kinds of scholars you probably doing all kind of thing so you don't expect my angel to say well not like joking but if you want to have a gigantic great leap forward it's not likely you can blame my angel for all kind of thing but then you expect him to be the vangarts and all kind of things oh well that's not like but Beijing does worry about the DPP coming to power and if the DPP comes to power if that person is like a transphabian that's a big headache everyone is going to be white hair like me and loose sleeves so that's one second thing we also worry all see if gain some kind of acknowledgement gain some kind of equal status think about it if you are strong how are you going to swallow it I'm the boss actually can do whatever I want to do that's like a million dollar strong can do whatever you want to do sorry if you are weak you have to suffer whatever you need to suffer that's a political reality so there that kind of mentality you say well yeah we try but you know and I say so what why do I need to accommodate your needs the situation already changing ties reverse if that's in 1980s you probably call a shop sorry 1990s in a way lost opportunity he decided not to push for it it's our time to call a shop so it's a shipping position it's difficult I'll stop you thank you well you covered a lot of ground a huge number of issues I guess I've shared some very similar experiences in sort of my conferences in the PRC when I first started going back to the PRC in 2009 when the DVP was probably at its lowest point one of the things that really shocked me was how paranoid they were about the DVP coming back to power at that time it seemed like the DVP was almost finished but one of the things that I've also often said is the constraints that the DVP was under even when it was in power and similarly I think you're right that my job faces similar constraints we often hear this idea that Taiwan is a very different country this idea that Taiwan is a very divided society but I thought one of the things that was really interesting in the presentation was the survey data which actually suggested a lot of consensus which looks a bit different from what we see in Parliament but the the question I wanted to ask was to what extent from your understanding do Taiwanese voters still care much about international space when they think back to the 1990s this was a really big thing and this is something that helped to get re-elected so easily what about now do you see any major shift there right now the issue actually is no longer so important in terms of this money probably care more about whether when it's winning or not winning or it's really going to wrong it's a non-party a period of candidates a particular election process goes on but then even if that's international space issue actually connected to identity politics so anytime you got identity politics at some time they're going to play it it doesn't matter which side that's so attractive really attractive in terms of the campaign issue it's allowing you to anything you throw in you say for example I'm sure that maybe when Nen Sen will know they're going to say well your daddy is pro-China and all that kind of things and then next is if you are pro-China and all that kind of issues and then the green for example probably the doctor probably will say well I'm really non-party I feel you didn't and I really want to work for the city council but it has your understanding even though that's a low level city level type they'll talk about the national or some kind of identity issue on a higher level even though I'm a city mayor I really don't deal with that kind of issue but then they'll bring it because there's all kind of issues I still think that identity issue is not so dramatic just like before that's one, the second international space issue is no longer so in terms of media obviously no longer so obvious but just watch out if there is one kind of suddenly a Taiwan was kicked out from one international organization or another issue like a Gambia coming on it and I'm sure just like British on that suddenly they say well there is an issue over that my nose will smell something good and then I'll simply just explore it because I don't care, I just need three days publicity first day explosive, second day reply and third day I still keep beating it and then another thing is so any kind of issue will keep on coming back so there's certainly a possibility of it you're all like my students no no I'm just kidding take it back it's relations, is he pushing more towards taking more of that in tango on the space or is he pushing kind of on the military for Taiwan I don't think he no Xi Ji, this policy told Taiwan is certainly if you compare him with Wu Jin Tao certainly he is more hands-on, he probably knows more because his previous experience that's one, secondly he also got involved in the very early period so you can also control it I have to admit that I don't know him too much so I really I made a comment one time I was talking to a Chinese think tank person I said since he mentioned about Chinese China Dream suddenly in Shanghai everyone is writing grants for dreaming China Dream and I said oh you're a dreamer so look the grant title I said how to pursue China Dream China Dream and I said it's very easy, just sit there they're doing a daydream and then they're going to China and then they're going to all kinds of things a lot of projects about China Dream because that's the style so I think he probably got a stronger nationalistic aspiration to really push China to be strong and that part actually for most of the Chinese that's understandable if you are being educated in the Chinese history the century of humiliations all because of Great Britain causing all these troubles but on the other hand that's good to some extent defeated us and it's all right now we need to be strong so that kind of mentality historical legacy over there the nationalistic feeling actual question but then on the other hand you can see that kind of continuity look at the Diao Yi Tai Singapore Islands suddenly China becomes so assertive someone asking why someone experienced because 2009 Xi Jinping and Bo Xi Lai Bo Xi Lai pushing red it's China all kinds of things and then all kinds of debate so Wu Jin Dao at that time feel that gosh that kind of issue he's just like a competition a kind of political leader competition so Bo Xi gained all those publicity talking about red, talking about nationalism so Wu Jin Dao had to do something to compete otherwise I'm not so moving up in terms of that kind of public approval so for Wu Jin Dao even though sometimes I think Wu Jin Dao is more like a technocrat that kind of thing but still he had to do something and then that trend suddenly continued and I thought at that time probably Xi Jinping probably was in a low kind of situation but still continued so he probably tell it something but I have to say that I don't know him even though I ask all my Chinese friends scholars sometimes it's difficult to say to start with no answer I just wonder it seemed to me that you held quite a what optimistic view on Taiwan's strategy in exploring all of the revenues and different kind of secret passage again I think secret passage get into different international organizations I just wonder what's your view on the future you can see for seeable future that's probably change of power will that affect or have any effect on Taiwan's diplomatic strategies or just carry on as usual first of all in terms of optimistic the reason I'm a little bit optimistic is because if I'm coming from China side just like every scholars you step in that position you're sort of excited look this is the way it's supposed to go but certainly no one followed we're always a lonely boys shouting the sound of music sometimes is very lonely so that's optimistic in a sense previous I really don't think this issue very important from a point of view what can you do but I reverse the position only on the other hand from China's point of view actually can do a lot then that's why in my discussions I'm sort of become a little bit passionate in the same but then they say oh gosh you're defending I say well but I'm looking from your point of view if your goal is unification or peaceful resolution not necessarily unification peaceful resolution certainly you can do a military solution but if your peaceful resolution whatever the result and you also both sides argue one China with different interpretation and in that case there is a possibility over there but then I'm sure it's the ending I give you a little bit a little bit wet towel on everyone's head but then it's a realist consideration is you're there if I'm strong why do I need to pocket but on the other hand I still remember Rousseau at one time even though I forgot whatever Rousseau so I've talked about it for a long time but Rousseau I just mentioned a million dialogue it says strong can do whatever you want to do the weak you must suffer whatever you need to suffer and don't talk about the rights neutrality forget about friendship alliances depend on others self-help is the most important but on the other hand even for the strongest you're never so strong if you don't have that kind of sense of right because power still eventually coming down you need to have a sense of justice otherwise you cannot holding the strong arms or any kind of weapon staying behind everyone's head still sometimes you need to be a little shrewd diplomatic skillful this is a wide way to do it and that's why the United States where Britain is the same thing you set up an empire and when you set up the rules you need to compromise certainly you take care of your interests and you create all those fancy flowery discourse and say oh free trade is good actually free trade is really good but it doesn't matter you say free trade is good allow everyone to believe into it so one day you don't really need to use the physical forces to enforce it they're already in their mindset they follow your rule that's why I love Great Britain the National Gallery I go to Great Britain and I say wow all this kind of wow comes in and it really a sense that you believe that there must be some sense of justice righteous action behavior patterns and they we are willing to accept your leadership the same thing just like the United States so that's the point I really want to carry on if I know I'll be a Nobel Peace Prize winner and actually it's not very difficult to get a Nobel Peace Prize as long as political scientists regularly command you assume you assume China's strength as a realist but given the CCP will not be elected everything can be really secure because in Taiwan for example there will always be such an intrinsic issue to the security and if they ease up that's all I mean they see it as a weakness and then you have domestic forces that respond to that which side ease up the CCP for example they start easing up towards the Taiwan and then Taiwan and then it's not even Taiwan I think it's domestic isn't it it's like people are questioning their rules that has been the debate in China's study for a long time China is very strong in China it's only on the outside that's certainly also true you don't need to go through just like most of you probably already visit China we all understand that if you're on the coastal areas and Shanghai you say I still love it because the park the nightlife but if you get into the inner lane sometimes you wonder is this China I went to Tibet and passing through some of other areas and people wonder is and then the Tibetan people will talk about different kind of view and you say if I'm long in China I'm going to have a lot of aspirates every night a value otherwise I cannot sleep very well so the question is looking from this side outside you say very nice inside probably a different view that's certainly true and I think China also realize that they really realize that so Wenjabao one particular interesting comment any kind of issue any kind of benefits China has it's just divided by 1.3 billion population the benefit for each individual becomes very small any kind of problems you say well it's small but put it into China times 1.3 it's a big one and I think they understand it that kind of issue but then the question is I remember another story Deng Xiaoping at one time mentioned that again I don't know whether it's true as someone told me when in 1980s and early 1990s at that time there was some discussion from KMD Chen Lifu at one time mentioned that well how about this we are wealthy enough in terms of economic wealth and so why don't we just divide one part of the southern part of China and let us wrong test it Taiwan's model and then you can keep the majority of them and then we'll see the experiment if it's good or not and then eventually maybe a lot of people will come to Taiwan this side and then if we fail then I think that would be a good idea another good idea if you want to wrong China such a big country you need to have a CCP why? you don't listen to me you solve the problems do I need to convince you the reason is I don't do this and I try to give you all those kind of explanation you also understand that Chinese just like Taiwanese are quite realistic the reason I show you that particular survey data you want to be able to have all the yes Taiwan yes if our ocean Taiwan is not there we are fine Chinese there's a national security survey Amazon wrong if China attack Taiwan are you willing to defend if China decide to use military forces and all kinds of things are you willing to defend it yes but if the military forces really invaded do you want to defend no so will you win twice so if talking fine things but coming back to your point sometimes if you travel whether you really sense the urgency but then you don't know how to solve the problem because if you push for democratic election we all know democracy democratisation sometimes is a long term process that's why some of the PhD trend in the United States for example they went back and they said no not democracy authoritarian regime actually is good but never authoritarian regime is good and then you talk to them gosh you are training UC Berkeley what happened to training we understand that but then after you travel doing the field research in China no level can do it but nation wide how can you do it it needs to power all kinds of precondition probably don't know I don't know a solution but I can sleep very well because I don't need to worry about it that's all the person's problem but that's really a concern so you have two sides of China it depends on which side you want to look into Professor Cllr Cllr Cymru cwm yn fawr and as your survey has shown and as you've mentioned before identity politics plays a huge role in Taiwanese politics or the contradiction between whether you are Taiwan or ROC or something else so does this also play a role in Taiwan's foreign policy with regards to the Diao-Yu Tai dispute and how the ROC has a really contradictory approach as to whether or not it actually wants to enforce its sovereignty claims towards the island that issue is Diao-Yu Tai issue is another interesting issue identity politics plays a role but then the same thing is you have a power politics in the sense Taiwan is a small potato squeezed by two giants that's China or even Japan or even Japan behind Japan there is the United States so what Taiwan can do everyone say well Taiwan do a lot you need to reclaim my angel will stand on the remote island and say well Diao-Yu Tai actually my angel probably got his own personal condition very strongly because he was Baodio I mean Baodio movements and if you are in my generation a little extra I'm not so old my previous generation they participated in Baodio in the United States you understand what I'm talking about there because at that time Taiwanese students in the United States they all really gungho but eventually the movement split so split the reason is because they blame on Taiwan one group blame on Taiwan and say you haven't done enough what is the nationalism what you're dealing with Japan problem some group and say they believe that China can do it because China issue a stronger statement even though no action taken but then they say and China actually also mentioned that well we're going to resolve this issue in a peaceful way because China really is Japan's financial law so but still look at the statement that they believe in China China really presented cultural revolution from outside is a different picture like outside inside the point of view so let's split so mind you really believe in it from Taiwan's point of view certainly there is a different opinion you don't always say Diorita belong to Japan but that's his view but anyway my enjoy at least for some majority of it survey data will show you that actually strong high percentage of it doesn't matter which side you are in Pengrin or Penbrew majority of it support Taiwan's territorial plan so you have that kind of public opinion supporting it mind you believe in it but then the question is how are we going to do it do you want to take any kind of action taking action to invade easy it's the holding is a problem is that right and all how are you going to take it probably very easy you just again sneaking one person and put a flag and say oh this is mine then go home it's pretty much like an article in 1970s some of the country of Argentina have got children they have delivered babies over there the reason is they want an article they want to have a birth certificate to prove it and all they set up a post office over there they ask the person to send a postcard the reason I want to put a stamp to prove this is my territory but then well what's the point I mean in terms of long run so mid-air action is not likely to happen and also squeeze that Japan supported by the security treaty provision and then the definition of that particular security treaty actually indicated US will defend Japan if Japan's any kind of territorial control under Japanese administration we are not talking about sovereignty under Japanese administration United States will defend it so US has no other option even though in 1961 the Senate debate actually talking about some of the senators actually already talk about it are you sure that's a a blank check given to Japan it's just like alliance politics you're afraid of it to be trapped but at the same time you're also afraid that you're going to be abandoned abandonment and entrapment that kind of play into it so US senators are actually worried about it that we might actually control Japan and so Japan this time really take advantage of that so if you decide to do it you also irritate Japan and Japan remember it's not that Japan you worry about it's the big guy standing behind it you have to worry about it China also worry about yes I can do it but on the other hand if I run into it do I want to engage any kind of military conflict with the United States it's the big guy you have to worry about it so China also that but China also need to show it and then the thing is China is quite delicate in this way one time someone asked me what are you going to do and I said oh it's very easy what China need to do it send in a very slow moving non-armed aircraft slowly I think glider will be fine just cruise around I declare on mine I'm not saying that I declare certainly but I don't recognize your territorial right and at least I want to see the image or impression that it's controversial area you're not having a sole control of that particular island I just need to do it sometimes you send in the fishing boats into it if you serve in the offshore islands in Germany you know what I'm talking about sometimes China got a thousand boats coming in show them everyone how but they keep on coming some kind of mutual understanding if China decides to send thousands of ships get into that area that's a possibility but the point that China try to do is maybe I just need to make sure that you accept that there's a dispute what Taiwan can do my director quite courageous quote unquote I don't know why but then he did it he did send in the coast guard ships to escort it and then when China's coast guard sort of saying that well we are brothers and we want to help you Taiwan's coast guard say don't do it, it's my business please stay away why they need to say that because they don't want to have not going to join operations over there that's really difficult because if you join operations don't forget that you need the United States to be the backup and you don't want to irritate Japan because there's a domestic consideration some people they really like Japan not simply just sushi but also all the way they really like Japan you grow up in Japan and Taiwan you understand that kind of post-colonial that kind of legacy and also you have a comparison of how we should handle so that really becomes complicated domestic consideration external consideration so what you can do is you can issue all kinds of statement it's a very cheapy one even though no one care or no one listen to you but then you still need to continue to show up that you are reasonable guy even though that really doesn't work very well because not even the media coverage for international press and it's unfortunate but whatever you talk about actually that's based on his study in terms of the Diao Yi Tai he published his law school dissertations and that's in 84 I believe and then he pretty much followed that script into it but that kind of statement pretty much he understand international law so that part is in terms of the demarcation line in terms of how the medium line or you need to take it into it or the demarcation line and ICJ is usually again political as we all understand it so he followed that line so Taiwan actually for this issue luckily you have a domestic support so you can come out and then that issue also something we cut across the identity division is it blue or green they really get into it but that also means some people they say well Taiwan unified that means China is out so what kind of nationalism is that so it's interesting I think we got time for one final question sorry my answer is too long but you have to understand professors just like my kids sometimes say ask you one simple question you give all kinds of options sorry professors have it ok in that case then let's finish here then let's thank Professor Lee thank you very much